Diatom–environment relationships and a transfer function for conductivity in lakes of the Badain Jaran Desert, Inner Mongolia, China

We describe a dataset of 26 modern diatom samples and associated environmental variables from the Badain Jaran Desert, northwest China. The influence of electrical conductivity (EC) and other variables on diatom distribution was explored using multivariate analyses and generalized additive modeling of species response curves. A transfer function was derived for EC, the variable with the largest unique effect on diatom variance, as shown by partial canonical correspondence analysis. Weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and calibration provided the best model, with a high coefficient of determination ( $ {\text{r}}_{\text{boot}}^{2} $  = 0.91) and low prediction error (RMSEP_boot = 0.136 log₁₀ μS cm^?1). To assess its potential for palaeosalinity and palaeoclimate reconstructions, the EC transfer function was applied to fossil diatom assemblages from ²¹⁰Pb-dated short sediment cores collected from two subsaline lakes of the Badain Jaran Desert. The diatom-inferred (DI) EC reconstructions were compared with meteorological data for the past 50 years and with remote sensing data for the period AD 1990–2012. Changes in DI–EC were small and their relationship with climate was weak. Moreover, remote sensing data indicate that the surface areas and water depths of these lakes did not change, which suggests that water loss by evaporation is compensated by groundwater inflow. These results suggest that the response of these lakes to climate change is mediated by non-climatic factors such as the hydrogeological setting, which control recharge from groundwater, and may be non-linear and non-stationary.     

Chironomid-based water depth reconstructions: an independent evaluation of site-specific and local inference models

Water depth is an important environmental variable that explains a significant portion of the variation in the chironomid fauna of shallow lakes. We developed site-specific and local chironomid water-depth inference models using 26 and 104 surface-sediment samples, respectively, from seven kettlehole lakes in the Plymouth Aquifer, southeast Massachusetts, USA. Our site-specific model spans a depth gradient of 5.6?m, has an $ {\text{r}}_{\text{jack}}^{2} $ of 0.90, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.5?m and maximum bias of 0.7?m. Our local model has a depth gradient of 11.7?m, an $ {\text{r}}_{\text{jack}}^{2} $ of 0.71, RMSEP of 1.6?m and maximum bias of 2.9?m. Principal coordinates of neighbourhood matrices (PCNM) analysis showed that there is no influence of spatial autocorrelation on the site-specific model, but PCNM variables explained a significant amount of variance (4.8%) in the local model. This variance, however, is unique from the variance explained by water depth. We applied the inference models to a Holocene chironomid record from Crooked Pond, a site for which multiple, independent palaeohydrological reconstructions are available. The chironomid-based reconstructions are remarkably similar and show stable water depths of ~5?m, interrupted by a 2-m decrease between 4,200 and 3,200?cal a BP. Sedimentological evidence of water level fluctuations at Crooked Pond, obtained using the so-called Digerfeldt approach, also shows a drop in water depths around that time. The period of reconstructed lower water levels coincides with the abrupt decline in moisture-dependent hemlock in this region, providing further evidence for this major palaeohydrological event. The site-specific model has the best performance statistics, but the high percent abundance of fossil taxa from the long core that are absent or rare in the training set makes the site-specific reconstruction unreliable for the period before 4,400?cal a BP. The fossil taxa are well represented in the local model, making it the preferred inference model. The strong similarity between the chironomid-based reconstructions and the independent palaeohydrological records highlights the potential for using chironomid-based inference models to determine past lake depths at sites where temperature was not an influencing factor.     

Oxygen isotope fractionation in the ostracod <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eucypris mareotica</Emphasis>: results from a culture experiment and implications for paleoclimate reconstruction

Oxygen isotope analysis of the adult ostracod Eucypris mareotica cultured at controlled temperatures (10, 15, and 19°C) was used to measure isotopic fractionation during shell calcification. The ostracod shells that precipitated at experimental temperatures are almost in isotopic equilibrium with the culture water as compared to the oxygen isotope fractionation of inorganic carbonates. Moreover, they had almost constant offsets from equilibrium based on the oxygen isotope fractionation of inorganic carbonates. The δ¹⁸O values of ostracod shells from the 10°C cultures were higher than those of the 15 and 19°C cultures by 1.6 and 2.7‰, respectively. The observed fractionations are shown by the regression equations: *20c 10^° \textC:d ^{1 8} \textO_{\textostracod} = 1. 1 7+ 0. 5 7d ^{1 8} \textO_\textwater 1 5^° \textC:d ^{1 8} \textO_{\textostracod} = - 0. 4 8+ 0. 6d ^{1 8} \textO_\textwater 1 9^° \textC:d ^{1 8} \textO_{\textostracod} = - 1. 6+ 0. 6d ^{1 8} \textO_\textwater \begin{array}{*{20}c} { 10^\circ {\text{C}}:\delta^{ 1 8} {\text{O}}_{\text{ostracod}} = 1. 1 7+ 0. 5 7\delta^{ 1 8} {\text{O}}_{\text{water}} } \\ { 1 5^\circ {\text{C}}:\delta^{ 1 8} {\text{O}}_{\text{ostracod}} = - 0. 4 8+ 0. 6\delta^{ 1 8} {\text{O}}_{\text{water}} } \\ { 1 9^\circ {\text{C}}:\delta^{ 1 8} {\text{O}}_{\text{ostracod}} = - 1. 6+ 0. 6\delta^{ 1 8} {\text{O}}_{\text{water}} } \\ \end{array} The fractionation factors (α) are slightly lower for the 15 and 19°C cultures, but slightly higher for the 10°C culture, as compared to inorganic carbonates (O’Neil et al. in J Chem Phys 51:5547–5558, 1969). The oxygen fractionation factors of E. mareotica are very close to those of synthetic calcite formed in isotopic equilibrium. The ‘vital offsets’ of valve-δ¹⁸O for E. mareotica is so small that we can neglect its effect when using the δ¹⁸O of E. mareotica living in lake waters with high pH and salinity to reconstruct the paleoenvironment. The paleotemperature or paleoisotopic composition of lake water interpreted from a core of lacustrine sediment may be closer to the true values when the δ¹⁸O data for E. mareotica are used.     

Independent measurement of biogenic silica in sediments by FTIR spectroscopy and PLS regression

We present an independent calibration model for the determination of biogenic silica (BSi) in sediments, developed from analysis of synthetic sediment mixtures and application of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling. In contrast to current FTIRS applications for quantifying BSi, this new calibration is independent from conventional wet-chemical techniques and their associated measurement uncertainties. This approach also removes the need for developing internal calibrations between the two methods for individual sediments records. For the independent calibration, we produced six series of different synthetic sediment mixtures using two purified diatom extracts, with one extract mixed with quartz sand, calcite, 60/40 quartz/calcite and two different natural sediments, and a second extract mixed with one of the natural sediments. A total of 306 samples—51 samples per series—yielded BSi contents ranging from 0 to 100 %. The resulting PLSR calibration model between the FTIR spectral information and the defined BSi concentration of the synthetic sediment mixtures exhibits a strong cross-validated correlation ( \( {\text{R}}^{ 2}_{\text{cv}} \)  = 0.97) and a low root-mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV = 4.7 %). Application of the independent calibration to natural lacustrine and marine sediments yields robust BSi reconstructions. At present, the synthetic mixtures do not include the variation in organic matter that occurs in natural samples, which may explain the somewhat lower prediction accuracy of the calibration model for organic-rich samples.     

Paleotemperature reconstruction in tropical Africa using fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera)

Fossil assemblages of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established paleothermometers in north-temperate and boreal regions, but their potential for temperature reconstruction in tropical regions has never before been assessed. In this study, we surveyed sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in the surface sediments of 65 lakes and permanent pools in southwestern Uganda (including the Rwenzori Mountains) and central and southern Kenya (including Mount Kenya) to document the modern distribution of African chironomid communities along the regional temperature gradient covered by lakes situated between 489 and 4,575 m above sea level (a.s.l). We then combined these faunal data with linked Surface-Water Temperature (SWTemp: range 2.1–28.1°C) and Mean Annual Air Temperature (MATemp: range 1.1–24.9°C) data to develop inference models for quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we compare and discuss the performance of models based on different numerical techniques [weighted-averaging (WA), weighted-averaging partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) and a weighted modern analogue technique (WMAT)], and on subsets of lakes with varying gradient lengths of temperature and other environmental variables. All inference models calibrated against MATemp have a high coefficient of determination ( r_\textjack² r_{\text{jack}}^{2}  = 0.81–0.97), low maximum bias (0.84–2.59°C), and low root-mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP = 0.61–1.50°C). The statistical power of SWTemp models is generally weaker ( r_\textjack² r_{\text{jack}}^{2}  = 0.77–0.95; maximum bias 1.55–3.73°C; RMSEP = 1.39–1.98°C), likely because the surface-water temperature data are spot measurements failing to catch significant daily and seasonal variation. Models based on calibration over the full temperature gradient suffer slightly from the limited number of study sites at intermediate elevation (2,000–3,000 m), and from the presence of morphologically indistinguishable but ecologically distinct taxa. Calibration confined to high-elevation sites (>3,000 m) has poorer error statistics, but is less susceptible to biogeographical and taxonomic complexities. Our results compare favourably with chironomid-based temperature inferences in temperate regions, indicating that chironomid-based temperature reconstruction in tropical Africa can be achieved.     

Carbon cycling in Lake Erie during cultural eutrophication over the last century inferred from the stable carbon isotope composition of sediments

A ~106-cm sediment core from the eastern basin of Lake Erie was examined to investigate biogeochemical processes in this large lake during its cultural eutrophication over the last century. We measured stable carbon isotopes of total organic carbon and calcium carbonate (δ¹³C_TOC and d¹³ \textC_{\textCaCO 3} \delta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{CaCO}}_{ 3} }} ) as well as the concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC) and calcium carbonate (CaCO₃). δ¹³C_TOC and TOC show a strong positive correlation throughout the core and record changes in phytoplankton productivity and nutrient loading. CaCO₃ and TOC concentrations display a negative correlation throughout the core, suggesting that CaCO₃ concentrations are controlled primarily by decomposition of TOC in the hypolimnion and the sediments, although temperature and invasive mussels are also potential controlling factors. d¹³ \textC_{\textCaCO 3} \delta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{CaCO}}_{ 3} }} values show a positive correlation with δ¹³C_TOC between 1909 and 1969, indicating phytoplankton productivity was the primary control for d¹³ \textC_{\textCaCO 3} \delta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{CaCO}}_{ 3} }} values during eutrophication. However, a negative correlation between d¹³ \textC_{\textCaCO 3} \delta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{CaCO}}_{ 3} }} and δ¹³C_TOC from 1970 to 2002 suggests that these two proxies tracked different aspects of the carbon cycle in the lake in more recent times. The cause for the negative correlation is not yet known, but it is perhaps associated with temperature variations and seasonal differences in productivity.     

A midge-salinity transfer function for inferring sea level change and landscape evolution in the Hudson Bay Lowlands,Manitoba, Canada

We compared water chemistry and environmental data with midge assemblage data, using multivariate analysis to assess the environmental gradients that limit midge (Chironomidae, Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) distributions in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, northeastern Manitoba, Canada. Midge remains, comprising 62 taxa, were obtained from surficial sediments of 63 ponds. Ponds were sampled to maximize the salinity gradient. Specific conductance ranged from 46 to 29,000 μS cm^?1. Proximity to the coast was a principal determinant of pond salinity, with ponds closer to Hudson Bay shoreline more saline that those farther away. Multivariate analysis indicated that midge distributions have a significant relationship ( $ {\text{r}}_{\text{boot}}^{2} = 0.68 $ ) with salinity in the data set. This work will allow paleolimnological inferences of midge community responses to changing sea level (i.e. salinity) via isostatic rebound within the Hudson Bay Lowlands, and will provide essential limnological information to scientists and managers in a region where understanding of aquatic ecosystems is limited. One undescribed midge taxon was dominant in ponds with the highest salinities and may be a key indicator for inferring highly saline environments.     

Diatom habitats,species diversity and water-depth inference models across surface-sediment transects in Worth Lake,northwest Ontario,Canada

We analyzed surface-sediment samples collected along transects from three sub-basins of a relatively large (~115 ha), bathymetrically complex lake, in northwest Ontario, Canada, to assess the reproducibility of diatom species habitats and diversity along a water-depth gradient. Transects displayed different orientations with respect to prevailing wind direction and varied in complexity and degree of slope along the lake bottom. Each transect consisted of three replicate samples at a resolution of ~1 m water depth from ~1 to 30 m for the two deep-basin transects and from ~1 to 18 m in the shallower basin. Distinct diatom assemblages were identified in all transects: (1) a near-shore community composed largely of attached life-forms and some motile benthic taxa, (2) a mid-depth community composed largely of motile life-forms and other benthic taxa that are adapted to lower light conditions (e.g. Staurosirella pinnata), and (3) a deep-water community dominated by planktonic taxa. Species richness was highest in the benthic zones (<9 m), with greatest species evenness in the mid-depth zone (~3–9 m). Species richness and evenness were highly correlated across the three transects (r = 0.89–0.93, p < 0.01). Diatom-inferred depth models were developed from the individual transects to assess reproducibility and applicability for down-core analyses using modern analog (MAT) and weighted-averaging (WA-PLS) approaches. Coefficients of determination (r ²) for these models ranged from 0.80 to 0.98, and RMSEP ranged from 1.2 to 4.2 m. The models developed from the transect with the highest resolution sampling, gentlest non-complex slope and shallowest maximum depth were the strongest ( r_\textMAT² = 0.97 r_{\text{MAT}}^{2} = 0.97 ; r_{\textWA - PLS}² = 0.98 r_{\text{WA - PLS}}^{2} = 0.98 ) and had the lowest RMSEP (MAT = 1.2 m, WA-PLS = 1.3 m). These inference models can be used to infer past fluctuations in the depth of the benthic/planktonic boundary from cores retrieved near this ecotone and provide a sensitive record of the past change in location of the benthic zone. These types of data can be used to assess past variability in droughts and lake levels to better plan for potential future extremes. Such records incorporate more realistic estimates of natural variability than the ~100-year instrumental records currently used by water resource managers.     

A Comparative Analysis of Favorability Mappings by Weights of Evidence,Probabilistic Neural Networks,Discriminant Analysis,and Logistic Regression

This study compares the performance of favorability mappings by weights of evidence (WOE), probabilistic neural networks (PNN), logistic regression (LR), and discriminant analysis (DA). Comparisons are made by an objective measure of performance that is based on statistical decision theory. The study further emphasizes out-of-sample inference, and quantifies the extent to which outcome is influenced by optimum variable discretization with classification and regression trees (CARTS).Favorability mapping methodologies are evaluated systematically across three case studies with contrasting scale and geologic information:

Defining drivers of nitrogen stable isotopes (δ15N) of surface sediments in temperate lakes

The nitrogen stable isotopic signature (δ¹⁵N) of sediment is a powerful tool to understand eutrophication history, but its interpretation remains a challenge. In a large-scale comparative approach, we identified the most important drivers influencing surface sediments δ¹⁵N of 65 lakes from two regions of Canada using proxies that reflect watershed nitrogen (N) sources, internal lake microbial cycling and productivity. Across regions, we found that water column total nitrogen (TN),  %N in the sediments and lake morphometric variables were the best predictors of sedimentary δ¹⁵N, explaining 66 % of its variation. Significant relationships were also found between sediment δ¹⁵N and human-derived N load ( \( R_{{{\text{adj}} .}}^{2} \)  = 0.23, p < 0.001), the latter being a strong predictor of TN ( \( R_{{{\text{adj}} .}}^{2} \)  = 0.68, p < 0.001). Despite a relatively strong overall relationship, variation partitioning revealed an interesting difference in the dominant variable that influenced regional δ¹⁵N. Alberta lake sedimentary δ¹⁵N signature was dominated by human derived N load. In contrast, internal processing appeared to be more important in Quebec lakes, where sediment δ¹⁵N was best explained by  %N in the sediments and lake volume. Overall, our findings support the use of δ¹⁵N in paleolimnological investigations to reconstruct changing N sources to lakes but also highlight that regions may have distinctive drivers. Interpretations of sediment δ¹⁵N are likely to be strongest when multiple lines of evidence are employed and when placed in a regional context.     

Stable isotopes and trace elements in modern ostracod shells: implications for reconstructing past environments on the Tibetan Plateau,China

Stable isotopes and trace elements in ostracod shells have been used widely in paleolimnological investigations of past lake hydrochemistry and climate because they provide insights into past water balance and solute evolution of lakes. Regional differences in lake characteristics and species-specific element fractionation, however, do not permit generalization of results from other regions or ostracod species to the southern Tibetan Plateau, in part because most common taxa from the southern Tibetan Plateau are endemic to the area. This study evaluated relations between present-day environmental conditions and the geochemical composition of modern ostracod shells from the southern Tibetan Plateau, to assess the suitability of using shell chemistry to infer hydrological conditions. We studied nine lakes and their catchments, located along a west–east transect in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau. Stable oxygen and carbon isotope values and trace element concentrations in recent shells from the four most abundant ostracod species (Leucocytherella sinensis, ?Leucocythere dorsotuberosa, Limnocythere inopinata, Tonnacypris gyirongensis) were measured, together with hydrochemical properties of host waters at the time of sampling. Results revealed significant between-species differences in stable isotope fractionation and trace element incorporation into shell calcite. Stable oxygen and carbon isotope values of ostracod shells were correlated significantly with the stable isotope composition of the respective water body \( \left( {\updelta^{18} {\text{O}}_{{{\text{H}}_{ 2} {\text{O}}}} \,{\text{and }}\updelta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{H}}_{ 2} {\text{O}}}} } \right) \), reflecting salinity and productivity, respectively. Offsets between δ¹⁸O_shell and δ¹³C_shell and inorganic calcite, the latter representing isotopic equilibrium, suggest shell formation of T. gyirongensis during spring melt. L. sinensis reproduces throughout the monsoon season until September and shows several consecutive generations, and L. inopinata molts to the adult stage after the monsoon season in August/September. The influence of pore water δ¹³C was displayed by L. inopinata, suggesting shell calcification within the sediment. Mg/Ca_shell is primarily influenced by water Mg/Ca ratios and salinity and confirms the use of this shell ratio as a proxy for precipitation-evaporation balance and lake level. In addition, Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca can be used to infer changes in salinity, at least in closed-basin lakes with calcite saturation. Observed effects of water Sr/Ca and salinity on Sr/Ca incorporation are biased by the presence of aragonite precipitation in the lakes, which removes bioavailable Sr from the host water, resulting in low Sr/Ca_shell values. Changes in carbonate mineralogy affect the bioavailability of trace elements, a process that should be considered in paleoclimate reconstructions. Oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca_shell ratios were unaffected by water temperature. Positive correlations among Fe/Ca, Mn/Ca and U/Ca in ostracod shells, and their negative correlation with δ¹³C, which reflects organic matter decay, show the potential to infer changes in redox conditions that can be used to reconstruct past oxygen supply to bottom waters and thus past water-circulation changes within lakes. The intensity of microbial activity, associated with organic matter decomposition, can be inferred from U/Ca ratios in ostracod shells. These findings highlight the value of fossil ostracod records in lake deposits for inferring paleoenvironmental conditions on the southern Tibetan Plateau.     

Midges (Chironomidae,Ceratopogonidae, Chaoboridae) as a temperature proxy: a training set from Tasmania,Australia

Chironomid and ceratopogonid head capsules, along with Chaoborus mandibles, were used to model mean temperature of the warmest quarter (TWARM) in Tasmania. Our transfer function is based on midge assemblages and 21 environmental variables sampled from 47 lakes. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed seven variables that account for a significant (P ≤ 0.05) portion of the explainable variance. In order of explanatory power, these were pH, TWARM, annual radiation, magnesium, annual precipitation, SiO₂, and depth. TWARM was modeled using weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and generated a model with and RMSEP = 0.94. Advances in chironomid paleoecology are progressing very quickly in the Southern Hemisphere. Chironomid identification guides and autecological data are available for many regions, highlighting the potential for developing midge-based quantitative models to address hemispheric and interhemispheric climate hypotheses.     

Geochemical Characteristics and Hydrocarbon Expulsion of Lacustrine Marlstones in the Shulu Sag,Bohai Bay Basin,Eastern China: Assessment of Tight Oil Resources

Natural Resources Research - In recent years, tight oil exploration has made significant progress in the lower part of Shahejie Formation ( $$ {\text{Es}}_{3} ^{{\text{L}}} $$ ) in the Shulu Sag,...     

Diatom-based transfer functions for western Quebec lakes (Abitibiand Haute Mauricie): the possible role of epilimnetic CO2 concentration in influencing diatom assemblages

Surficial sediments from 76 lakes from two western Quebec regions(Abitibi and Haute Mauricie) were sampled to identify the relationships betweendiatoms and environmental variables. Because the two regions containedradically different diatom communities, we then investigated which factors maybe responsible for the large community discrepancies in the two nearbygeographical areas. Standard lake chemistry variables showed little differencesbetween the regions, although epilimnetic light regimes were slightly lower inAbitibi. Nevertheless, lakes of the two regions with similar light regimes andchemistry still showed a clear separation in their diatoms, implying that otherimportant factors are influencing assemblages. We found that the calculatedconcentration of CO₂ in the open water can explain some of thediscrepancy in diatom assemblages. A pCCA constrained to the concentration ofCO₂ with alkalinity and pH as covariables explained 12.5% of speciesvariance and was significant. Given the lack of a relationship between DOC andCO₂, and because the lakes are heavily supersaturated withCO₂ in the calibration set, lake-to-lake variations inCO₂ concentrations are likely due to groundwater inputs; thepossibility that this environmental variable may be influencing diatomcommunities might allow, in some cases, the reconstruction of historicalchanges in groundwater inputs to lakes. Finally, new calibration models werebuilt in Quebec by using weighted averaging partial least square(WA-PLS) techniques in order to infer pH, CO₂, TP, TN, and, DOC fromdiatom assemblages preserved in the surface sediments.     

New Zealand chironomids as proxies for human-induced and natural environmental change: Transfer functions for temperature and lake production (chlorophyll a)

The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 μg l⁻¹) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination () of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP_jack) of 1.31°C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an of 0.49 and an RMSEP_jack of 0.46 Log₁₀μg l⁻¹. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.     

Diatom-environmental relationships in 64 alkaline southeastern Ontario (Canada) lakes: a diatom-based model for water quality reconstructions

Lake eutrophication is a problem in many areas of Ontario, although the history of nutrient enrichment is poorly documented. The aim of this study was to construct a diatom-based transfer function to infer past phosphorus levels in Ontario lakes using paleolimnological analyses. The relationship between diatom assemblages and limnological conditions was explored from a survey of diatoms preserved in the surface sediments of 64 Southern Ontario lakes, spanning a total phosphorus gradient of 0.004 to 0.054 mg L^-1. Over 420 diatom taxa were identified, 98 of which were sufficiently common to be considered in statistical analyses. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) determined that pH, ammonium, aluminum, spring total phosphorus (TP), strontium, total nitrogen (TN), maximum depth (MaxZ), chlorophyll a (Chla) and mean depth were significant variables in explaining the variance in the diatom species data. The environmental optima of common diatom taxa for the limnologically important variables (TP, pH, TN, MaxZ, Chla) were calculated using weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration techniques, and transfer functions were generated. The diatom inference model for spring TP provided a robust reconstructive relationship (r² = 0.637; RMSE = 0.007 mg L^-1; r² _boot = 0.466; RMSE_boot = 0.010 mg L^-1). Other variables, including pH (r² = 0.702; RMSE = 0.208; r² _boot = 0.485; RMSE_boot = 0.234), TN (r² = 0.574; RMSE = 0.0899 mg L^-1; r² _boot = 0.380; RMSE_boot = 0.127 mg L^-1) and MaxZ (r² = 0.554; RMSE = 1.05 m; r² _boot = 0.380; RMSE_boot = 1.490 m), were also strong, indicating that they may also be reconstructed from fossil diatom communities. This study shows that it is possible to reliably infer lakewater TP and other limnological variables in alkaline Southern Ontario lakes using the WA technique. This method has the potential to aid rehabilitation programs, as it can provide water quality managers with the means to estimate pre-enrichment phosphorus concentrations and an indication of the onset and development of nutrient enrichment in a lake.     

Water-chemistry transfer functions for epiphytic diatoms in standing freshwaters and a comparison with models based on littoral sediment assemblages (Flanders, Belgium)

Quantitative inference models for water-chemistry variables are derived from epiphytic diatom assemblages in 186 lentic and mostly shallow freshwaters in lower Belgium (Flanders). When the complete pH range is considered (pH 3.4–9.3), robust transfer functions are obtained for median pH (jack-knifed r ² = 0.88, RMSEP = 0.38 pH units or 6.4% of the observed range) and dissolved inorganic carbon concentration (jack-knifed r ² = 0.86, RMSEP = 0.194 log₁₀ mg DIC l⁻¹ or 10.2% of the observed range) by means of weighted-averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS). For these variables, the calibration models are as reliable as those based on sedimentary diatom assemblages. Inferences of pH may be improved by combining estimates from epiphytic and sediment assemblages. In circumneutral and alkaline conditions, WA-PLS calibration of maximum or median total phosphorus is possible (log-transformed; jack-knifed r ² = 0.64 or 0.66 and RMSEP = 14% or 12.3% of the observed range, respectively). It makes little difference if taxa showing no response to TP are taken into consideration or not. These models considerably expand the prospects of using historical herbarium materials to hindcast environmental conditions and also allow more accurate interpretation of current compositional changes in epiphytic communities. Compared to littoral sediment assemblages, fewer water-column variables can be inferred reliably from epiphyton. This probably results from differences between the effective gradients in both habitats, together with lower in situ species diversity and less effective spatial integration (i.e. lower recruitment of phytoplankton) in the epiphyton. A comparison of the HOF response-model types and WA-optima of diatom taxa for epiphytic and sediment assemblages shows that the relationship to individual variables, and in particular to those related to trophic status, may differ with habitat. Thus, the combination of samples from both habitat types in the same calibration model is not recommended. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available and is accessible for authorised users in the online version of this article at     

Spatial variability of diatom assemblages in surface lake sediments and its implications for transfer functions

The variability of diatom species composition in lake surface sediments was studied along transects in four lakes in northeastern Germany. Three dimictic lakes (Dudinghausener See, Tiefer See, and Cambser See) and one shallow lake (Groß Peetscher See) were sampled. Large differences in diatom composition were found between adjoined samples from different depths within one lake. These differences were mainly displayed by planktonic species. For example, the relative frequency of Stephanodiscus alpinus varied between 4% and 43% within the surface sediment samples of the open-water region of Dudinghausener See. Using transfer functions for total phosphorus (TP) based on the European Diatom data-base (EDDI) combined TP data-set and a local data-set, the inferred TP values differed strongly within one lake when using Weighted Averaging-Partial Least Squares (WA-PLS) regression. In Tiefer See (average of measured TP: 30 μg l^?1), the inferred TP values range from 45 to 110 μg l^?1 using the transfer function based on WA-PLS regression and the EDDI data-set; and from 16 to 100 μg l^?1 using WA-PLS and a local data-set. Performing Maximum Likelihood (ML) regression reduced the difference between measured and inferred values. For Tiefer See, the inferred TP values range between 16 and 45 μg l^?1 using ML regression and the local data-set. Therefore, it seems that ML regression can deal better with the natural variability in species composition than WA-PLS regression. In general, it was shown that by using ML regression and the local data-set, the error of the inferred values was significant lower for all lakes than using WA-PLS regression and the EDDI data-set. The Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP) was not useful in selecting the most stable transfer function.     

Development of a diatom-based model for inferring total phosphorus in southeastern Australian water storages

Diatom-based transfer functions for inferring epilimnetic total phosphorus (TP) have been developed from a data set of 33 southeastern Australian water storages. Regular institutional monitoring of these sites has allowed comparison of models developed from TP data covering different time periods. A model based on mean annual TP performs better than models derived from winter maximum TP, spring minimum TP or TP nearest the time of diatom sampling. A mean annual TP model (WA-PLS 2 component) has a jack-knifed diatom-inferred versus measured TP correlation coefficient (r ² _jack) of 0.69 and a root-mean-square-error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.246 log₁₀g TP l^–1, while alternative models have RMSEP > 0.27. Deletion of two samples with uncharacteristic species composition and environmental conditions improved performance of the mean annual TP model (r ² _jack= 0.74; RMSEP = 0.233 log₁₀g TP l^–1). Comparison with other published diatom-TP calibration models indicates that this model performs relatively well, with possible contributing factors including the extensive characterisation of TP (with an average 15 determinations making up the annual mean) and the dominance of planktonic diatoms in most sites. Downcore application of the model will allow the reconstruction of reservoir nutrient histories since commissioning, and thus provide a basis for understanding and management of reservoirs.     

An expanded surface-water palaeotemperature inference model for use with fossil midges from eastern Canada

Using an expanded surface sample data set, representing lakes distributed across a transect from southernmost Canada to the Canadian High Arctic, a revised midge-palaeotemperature inference model was developed for eastern Canada. Modelling trials with weighted averaging (with classical and inverse deshrinking; with and without tolerance downweighting) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression, with and without square-root transformation of the species data, were used to identify the best model. Comparison of measured and predicted temperatures revealed that a 2 component WA-PLS model for square-root transformed percentage species data provided the model with the highest explained variance (r =0.88) and the lowest error estimate (RMSEP _jack =2.26 °C). Comparison of temperature inferences based on the new and old models indicates that the original model may have seriously under-estimated the magnitude of late-glacial temperature oscillations in Atlantic Canada. The new inferences suggest that summer surface water temperatures in Splan Pond, New Brunswick were approximately 10 to 12 °C immediately following deglaciation and during the Younger Dryas. During the Allerod and early Holocene, surface water temperatures of 20 to 24 °C were attained. The new model thus provides the basis for more accurate palaeotemperature reconstructions throughout easternmost Canada.