三峡水库主要支流碱性磷酸酶活性的比较

为进一步认识和理解三峡水库中磷的迁移、转化规律及其与富营养化之间的关系,于2014年7月至2015年7月对三峡水库12条典型支流的水体碱性磷酸酶活性进行跟踪观测与比较分析,同步监测各样点水体的理化指标.结果发现,各支流水体碱性磷酸酶活性的分布呈现显著的时空异质性,该异质性与各支流水体富营养化程度密切相关.从季节上看,春季碱性磷酸酶活性呈逐渐上升的趋势,到夏季达到高峰,秋季碱性磷酸酶活性逐渐下降,冬季降到全年最低点.从空间分布上看,水体碱性磷酸酶活性在各支流的总体分布趋势为：小江 > 香溪河 > 苎溪河 > 童庄河 > 青干河 > 袁水河 > 磨刀溪 > 梅溪河 > 汤溪河 > 草堂河 > 大宁河 > 神农溪.综合营养指数较高的小江、香溪河和苎溪河,其碱性磷酸酶活性较高;综合营养指数较低的大宁河和神农溪,碱性磷酸酶活性较低.相关分析显示,各支流碱性磷酸酶活性与水温、溶解氧、电导率、pH和浊度均存在显著正相关;与透明度呈显著负相关.在营养盐方面,碱性磷酸酶活性与可溶性活性磷呈显著负相关;与高锰酸盐指数、叶绿素a浓度和综合营养状态指数均呈显著正相关.不同时期不同生物的贡献和不同环境因素的影响是导致碱性磷酸酶时空异质性的主要原因.     

基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法

准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1～5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%～3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%～4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。     

A fusion-based neural network methodology for monthly reservoir inflow prediction using MODIS products

ABSTRACT

A model fusion approach was developed based on five artificial neural networks (ANNs) and MODIS products. Static and dynamic ANNs – the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with one and two hidden layers, general regression neural network (GRNN), radial basis function (RBF) and nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) – were used to predict the monthly reservoir inflow in Mollasadra Dam, Fars Province, Iran. Leaf area index and snow cover from MODIS, and rainfall and runoff data were used to identify eight different combinations to train the models. Statistical error indices and the Borda count method were used to verify and rank the identified combinations. The best results for individual ANNs were combined with MODIS products in a fusion model. The results show that using MODIS products increased the accuracy of predictions, with the MLP with two hidden layers giving the best performance. Also, the fusion model was found to be superior to the best individual ANNs.     

三峡水库与诱发地震

三峡水利枢纽规模宏大,举世瞩目,具有巨大的防洪、发电、航运等综合效益,是开发治理长江的骨干工程。三峡工程已于2003年6月15日蓄水至135m,永久船闸通航,7月第一批机组发电;2006年5月20日大坝185m高程全线贯通,10月27日蓄水至156m;2009年全部工程竣工投产。三峡水库已初步形成,随着蓄水位上升,库容加大,诱发水库地震的可能性也将加大。根据最大历史地震震级并适当加权,确定库区最大可信地震为6级左右。在仙女山和九湾溪断裂一带(距坝址为18km)存在诱发地震的可能,震级MS=5.0～5.8级。对坝址所受影响烈度为Ⅵ度,不会对按烈度Ⅶ度设防的枢纽主要建筑物构成直接威胁。必须加强对三峡水库诱发地震的监测及预报,预防地震及地质灾害,确保工程建设及运行安全,构建和谐社会,确保长治久安。本文根据国内外及三峡水库有关地震监测及预测预报资料,对三峡水库诱发地震进行初步探讨,供参阅指正。     

三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探

以三峡库区区域地质构造、活动断裂及库区水文地质特点为基础,借鉴老一辈地震工作者对三峡地区地震地质活动的勘察与科研成果,阐述了蓄水后岩石的库水与地质相互作用对该区水文地质及构造的影响,浅释了三峡库区水库地震孕震机理;用三峡遥测台网及宜昌台定点地壳形变手段在蓄水前后的监测资料,对三峡宜昌库区水库诱发地震作了初步探讨及趋势分析。研究显示,库区地震活动的时空强频随着库区水体的变化而增强,并与活动断层空间分布呈一致性,具备水库地震的明显特征。预测认为:未来三峡宜昌库区的巴东-黔江与高桥断裂带、仙女山、九湾溪及天阳坪断裂交汇带,是诱发ML4.0～4.5水库地震的危险区。     

三峡库区地震精定位中确定速度模型的方法

研究三峡库区地震精定位中确定速度模型的方法,分析不同速度模型对地震定位精度的影响,并选取多种方法来定量评价不同速度模型的地震定位精度。当地震分布或台站能够较好的覆盖研究区域,采用Kissling方法拟合观测数据得到的速度模型地震定位精度最高。当地震分布不能较好的覆盖研究区域,由人工地震测深结果得到的速度模型地震定位精度次之。当没有足够的观测数据,也没有人工地震测深结果,综合研究区域内的相关研究成果确定的速度模型也是可用的,但是地震定位的精度不高,特别是震源深度的精度很差。     

Carbon dioxide emissions from the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Carbon dioxide(CO_2) emission from the rivertype reservoir is an hotspot of carbon cycle within inland waters. However, related studies on the different types of reservoirs are still inadequate. Therefore, we sampled the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR), a typical river-type reservoir having both river and lake characteristics, using an online system(HydroCTM/CO_2) and YSI-6600v2 meter to determine the partial pressure of carbon dioxide(pCO_2)and physical chemical parameters in 2013. The results showed that the CO_2 flux from the mainstream ranged from 26.1 to 92.2 mg CO_2/m~2h with average CO_2 fluxes of 50.0 mg/m~2h. The CO_2 fluxes from the tributary ranged from-10.91 to 53.95 mg CO_22/mh with area-weighted average CO_2 fluxes of 11.4 mg/m~2h. The main stream emits CO_2 to the atmosphere the whole year; however, the surface water of the tributary can sometimes act as a sink of CO_2 for the atmosphere. As the operation of the TGR, the tributary became more favorable to photosynthetic uptake of CO_2 especially in summer. The total CO_2 flux was estimated to be 0.34 and 0.03 Tg CO_2/year from the mainstream and the tributaries, respectively. Our emission rates are lower than previous estimates, but they are in agreement with the average CO_2 flux from temperate reservoirs estimated by Barros et al.(Nat Geosci 4(9):593–596, 2011).     

三峡库区人居环境气候适宜性

运用GIS技术,在充分考虑气温、湿度、风速以及日照等条件下,计算了1995年1月至2010年12月三峡库区22个气象站点的温湿指数和风效指数及其时空分布,对三峡库区人居环境气候适宜性的总体分布趋势进行分析.并以2003年6月三峡工程一期蓄水作为时间中点,分析了三峡工程蓄水前后库区人居环境气候适宜性变化,同时对库区水位与气象要素的相关性进行定量分析.结果表明:从11月到翌年3月,库区气候偏冷,属于较不舒适人居环境;夏季的6-9月,整个库区气候偏热,属于较不舒适的人居环境;库区年均温湿指数和风效指数均呈现明显的地区差异,整体表现为由库区中部向东西递减的趋势;库区气候适宜性指数在三峡工程前后变化明显,库区水位与气候适宜性因子在2003年6月以前没有显著的相关性,在2003年6月以后,与温湿指数呈显著正相关,而与风效指数呈显著负相关.     

三峡澎溪河高阳平湖碳通量初步分析及不确定性

为明确三峡水库支流澎溪河回水区的碳收支特征,以澎溪河高阳平湖水域为研究对象,建立了河道型水库主要路径碳收支估算方法,对高阳平湖从2011年9月至2012年8月一个完整水文周年内主要路径的碳通量进行了收支动态分析.结果表明,2011年9月至2012年8月,澎溪河高阳平湖水域河流输入的碳通量为133548.55 t C,输出的碳通量为125651.82 t C,水-气界面的扩散碳通量为762.56 t C,消落带土-气界面的扩散碳通量为123.74 t C,水中气泡的释放碳通量为0.38 t C,降水输入的碳通量为104.58 t C,全年高阳平湖水域碳的净积累量为7114.63 t C,宏观上呈现碳积累特征;澎溪河高阳平湖水域水体碳素总体上呈现出河道型水库特有的纵向输移特征.高阳平湖水域上游大量碳素的输入及其在高阳平湖水域的滞留可能会是该水域水-气界面温室气体释放的主要来源.尽管总体上高阳平湖全年呈现出碳积累的特点,但一些方法依然存在不确定性(水-气界面扩散碳通量和气泡释放碳通量的时空异质性等),需要更系统、更长期的工作予以验证或改进.     

基于Matlab的三峡水库地震数据处理与分析

本文以Matlab为平台,编制了相应的程序代码,实现了SAC二进制数据读取、地震观测报告数据检验、频谱分析、地震数据的互相关计算和各种地震数据成图等项功能,并将它们运用于长江三峡水库地震加密台网数据的处理.结果表明,三峡库区地震都属于水库诱发地震,在仙女山断裂过江段、九湾溪断裂附近的地震属于断层因蓄水诱发的错动事件;巴东库区神龙溪两岸地震明显呈现出3条线性分布,这是由于水库蓄水后库水从神龙溪两岸等地下暗河渗入而诱发的地震;在长江三峡库区泄滩乡以西的两岸则存在着一些与蓄水相关的塌陷地震.     

三峡水库童庄河浮游植物及其与水质的关系

通过对三峡水库支流童庄河库区的浮游植物进行调查,共检出浮游植物132种,其中蓝藻门23种,隐藻门2种,甲藻门3种,硅藻门55种,裸藻门3种,绿藻门46种.其中硅藻门的种类居首位,甲藻和隐藻则在数量上占优势.主要优势种为飞燕角甲藻(Ceratium hirundinella)和隐藻一种(Cryptomonas sp.).浮游植物的种类和数量随季节和水域不同而呈现差异.应用水质理化指标、污染指示种和污染指示群落评价童庄河水质,显示其水质为Ⅴ类,为β-中污型水体.     

三峡水库支流甲烷排放研究进展

甲烷(CH₄)对全球温室效应有着较大的贡献。三峡水库自2003年蓄水以来,其CH₄排放问题已受到广泛关注。但三峡水库反季节的运行方式,使支流库湾CH₄的产生和传输过程受到多方面的影响,进而导致其CH₄排放效应尚不十分明确。本文综述了三峡水库支流CH₄排放的研究进展,典型支流的CH₄排放通量普遍高于干流,位于三峡水库库尾的部分支流CH₄排放通量高于三峡水库库首及库中支流。大多数典型支流的CH₄通量在夏季均达到全年峰值,而在冬季高水位运行期均处于相对较低的水平。同时本文主要从水环境条件、水动力条件、人类活动及气象条件4个方面阐述了三峡水库支流CH₄排放的影响因素。1)水环境条件:支流水华后藻类衰亡分解过程会驱动CH₄释放,且藻类的演替过程会加剧CH₄的产生;温度可以直接影响CH₄的生成速率和消耗速率,也能通过促进藻的生长间接影响CH₄排放;支流相对较低的甲烷氧化菌丰度是其CH₄通量较高的原因之一。2)水动力条件:蓄水期CH₄主要以扩散的方式进行释放,支流较低的流速促进了悬浮物的沉积,上游沉积物中的CH₄含量高于下游;泄水期CH₄主要以冒泡的方式进行释放,下游沉积物中TOC急剧增加,但干流的入侵会削弱支流的温度分层,破坏藻类生长环境,间接影响CH₄通量。3)人类活动:农业耕作使支流水体中的营养物浓度增加,甲烷氧化菌的丰富度降低,细菌群落的营养相关代谢增强;建设用地扩大、支流筑坝增加抑制了有机物的传输,增加了水体中的产CH₄底物,促进了CH₄的产生。4)气象条件:降雨会携带更多营养物质进入支流,同时会增加水体浊度、破坏水体的温度分层,从而对CH₄的产生和传输过程造成影响。最后对未来的研究热点进行了展望,以期为三峡水库CH₄排放的控制和管理提供参考。     

Characteristics of sedimentation and channel adjustment linked to the Three Gorges Reservoir

Construction of large dams is attractive because of their great benefits in flood control,hydropower generation,water resources utilization,navigation improvement,etc.However,dam construction may bring some negative impacts on sediment transport and channel dynamics adjustments.Due to the effects of recent water and soil conservation projects,sediment retention in the newly constructed large upstream reservoirs,and other factors,the sedimentation in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)is quite different from the amount previously predicted in the demonstration stage.Consequently,based on the measured data,characteristics of sedimentation and the related channel deformation in the TGR were analyzed.The results imply that sediment transport tended to be reduced after the Three Gorges Project(TGP).Sedimentation slowed dramatically after 2013 and indicated obvious seasonal characteristics.Due to the rising water level in the TGR in the flood season,the yearly sediment export ratio(Eratio)was prone to decrease.The water level near the dam site should be reasonably regulated according to the flow discharge to improve the sediment delivery capacity and reduce sedimentation in the TGR,and to try to avoid situations where the flood retention time is close to 444 h.The depositional belt was discontinuous in the TGR and was mainly distributed in the broad reaches,and only slight erosion or deposition occurred in the gorge reaches.Sedimentation in the broad and gorge reaches accounted for 93.8% and 6.2% of the total sedimentation,respectively.The estuarine reach located in the fluctuating backwater area experienced alternate erosion-deposition,with a slight accumulative deposition in the curved reach.Sedimentation mainly occurred in the perennial backwater area.The insight gained in this study can be conducive to directly understanding of large reservoir sedimentation and mechanism of channel adjustment in the reservoir region in the main channel of large river.     

Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

Hydrological and associated pollution load simulation and estimation for the Three Gorges Reservoir of China

This study demonstrates an integrated study by coupling a NPS pollution load estimation sub-model with a distributed hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes and associated pollution load processes in the Three Gorges (TG) Reservoir which is the largest water conservancy project in China, and further estimates the pollution loads and their responses to rainfall changes. The distributed hydrological model Easy Distributed Hydrological Model (EasyDHM) is featured as containing easy rain-runoff generation processes, comprehensive pre-process and post-process modules. Based on EasyDHM, this study develops a NPS pollution load estimation sub-model Easy Distributed Non-Point source evaluation sub-model taking both point source (PS) and NPS pollution into consideration. Through the application of the models in the TG area, this study clarifies the mechanism and characteristics of NPS pollution and estimates the pollution loads in the region. This study could provide technical support for the establishment of Best Management Practices for NPS pollution in the region, and references for the government during the processes of formulating and implementing decision-makings on pollution control and comprehensive management in the TG area.     

三峡库区浮游植物群落结构特征及水生态评价

2020年是长江禁渔开局之年,三峡库区作为长江的重要生态屏障,其水生态环境健康对长江大保护的实施具有重要意义。本文于2020年8月、11月及2021年1月、4月在三峡库区干支流共设置19个断面探究浮游植物群落结构特征,并利用生物量、多样性指数、综合营养状态指数和浮游植物Q指数等多种评价方法评价三峡库区水生态健康并分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)三峡库区共鉴定出浮游植物8门105属266种,年平均丰度为6.4×10⁴ cells/L,年平均生物量为0.038 mg/L。不同季节优势种组成不同,变异直链藻(Melosira varians Agardh)、骨条藻(Sheletonema spp.)、脆杆藻(Fragilaria spp.)为全年优势种。(2)三峡库区共划分24个功能群,B、D、MP、S1、P、Y为优势功能群。RDA分析表明,电导率、总氮、化学需氧量、总磷、pH、总溶解性固体与三峡库区四季功能群呈现显著关系。(3)相较于丰度、生物量和多样性水质评价结果,浮游植物Q指数更适用于三峡库区水生态评价,显示三峡库区干流水生态环境总体较好,但春、夏两季支流浮游植物...     

Methane Oxidation in the Water Column of Xiangxi Bay,Three Gorges Reservoir

Four field campaigns are carried out to quantify the methane (CH₄) oxidation rate in Xiangxi Bay (XXB) of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), China. The water depth of the sampling site varied from 13 to 30 m resulting from the water level fluctuation of the TGR. The CH₄ oxidation rates are measured in situ as the decline of dissolved CH₄ concentration versus time in incubated, and those rates. The CH₄ oxidation rates range from 1.18 × 10^?3 to 3.69 × 10^?3 µmol L^?1 h^?1, with higher values and stronger variation during summer. A static floating chamber method is used to measure CH₄ emitted to the atmosphere resulting in an annual mean flux of 4.79 µmol m^?2 h^?1. The CH₄ emission rate is significantly negatively correlated with the water level. The results show that a large fraction of CH₄ is consumed in the water column with a range of 28.97–55.90 µmol m^?2 h^?1, accounting for ≈69–98% of the total CH₄ input into the water column, and more than 90% is consumed outside the summer, when the water level is lowest. Water depth, which is dominated by water level of the TGR, is a potentially important driver for CH₄ oxidation and atmospheric emission in the tributary bay.     

三峡水库与长寿湖水库鱼类碳、氮稳定同位素特征及营养级的比较

为探究人为活动对水库鱼类食物来源和营养级关系的影响,选择人为影响程度较低的三峡水库和影响程度较高的长寿湖水库为研究对象,应用碳、氮稳定同位素技术对两个水库鱼类δ¹³C值、δ¹⁵N值和营养级进行比较分析.结果显示：长寿湖水库鱼类δ¹³C平均值（-22.66‰±1.94‰）与三峡水库（-22.59‰±1.87‰）较为接近,但长寿湖鱼类的δ¹⁵N值（13.95‰ ±3.02‰）显著高于三峡水库鱼类的δ¹⁵N值（11.98‰ ±2.25‰）.根据δ¹⁵N值计算不同食性鱼类间的营养级,三峡水库营养级为肉食性鱼类 > 杂食性鱼类 > 浮游生物食性鱼类 > 草食性鱼类;而长寿湖中则表现为浮游生物食性鱼类 > 肉食性鱼类 > 杂食性鱼类 > 草食性鱼类,营养级出现了异常现象.这一结果表明,对于人为影响（如人工喂食鱼饲料等）较大的水体,采用δ¹⁵N值计算不同食性鱼类间的营养级存在不确定性.     

三峡水库高位蓄水后的地震安全防范

三峡水库完成175m高位蓄水后,对可能出现诱发新地震灾害的可能性和危险性进行探讨,提出加强地震监测,深入开展水库诱发地震研究、认真进行地震应急准备的有效措施,以做好三峡水库高位蓄水后的地震安全防范工作。