增暖背景下新疆昼夜降水的变化特征

利用新疆地区89个台站1961~2005年昼、夜降水观测数据,分析了该地区昼夜降水过程的时空演变特征,目的是认识这个地区在年降水增加背景下昼夜间降水过程的变化特征及趋势。研究结果表明:(1)1961~2005年,多年平均的降水量为夜大于昼,且昼、夜降水量均呈显著增加趋势;夜降水量增长趋势大于昼降水量,昼、夜年降水量增长趋势分别占年总降水增长趋势的49%、51%,这种变化在南、北疆存在明显的区域差异。昼、夜降水量都存在由少到多的显著突变,但两者发生突变时间不同,昼降水量发生突变的时间为1986年,而夜降水量的突变点却发生在1991年。(2)昼降水日数小于夜降水日数,且昼、夜降水日数都呈显著增加趋势,昼降水日数增加趋势大于夜降水日数。昼、夜降水强度都呈显著增大趋势,夜降水强度及其增长趋势均大于昼降水强度。降水量增加的主要原因是由于降水日数的增多,降水强度对降水量影响较小。(3)昼、夜毛毛雨日数都呈显著减少趋势,昼毛毛雨日数及其减少趋势均大于夜毛毛雨日数。而强降水的日数和强度均呈现增加趋势;昼、夜强降水量和各自的总降水量有很好的相关,强降水量对总降水量的影响很大。引起这些昼、夜间降水变化特征差异的原因有待于进一步研究。     

白天和夜间通用的卫星遥感沙尘判识算法构建与验证分析

Himawari-8是日本发射的新一代静止气象卫星,与前一代的MTSAT-2相比,在时间、空间分辨率上都有了很大提升,特别是红外通道数量从4个增至10个,为红外遥感沙尘提供了新的观测数据。本研究利用Himawari-8的红外观测数据,发展了仅用红外通道的沙尘全天候判识算法,可以实现对白天和夜间的连续监测。算法在前人基础上去除了可见光通道,同时引入更多红外通道来进行云检测和沙尘判识。由于一日之中,地表温度发生变化,因此针对白天和夜间设置了两套不同的判别阈值,来保证算法的全天适用性。最后通过两次沙尘事件对沙尘判别结果的分析和检验表明,遥感判识结果与地面气象站和PM_(10)观测较为一致,说明了只用红外通道全天候判识沙尘的可行性。     

Joint PDF Modelling of Turbulent Flow and Dispersion in an Urban Street Canyon

The joint probability density function (PDF) of turbulent velocity and concentration of a passive scalar in an urban street canyon is computed using a newly developed particle-in-cell Monte Carlo method. Compared to moment closures, the PDF methodology provides the full one-point one-time PDF of the underlying fields containing all higher moments and correlations. The small-scale mixing of the scalar released from a concentrated source at the street level is modelled by the interaction by exchange with the conditional mean (IECM) model, with a micro-mixing time scale designed for geometrically complex settings. The boundary layer along no-slip walls (building sides and tops) is fully resolved using an elliptic relaxation technique, which captures the high anisotropy and inhomogeneity of the Reynolds stress tensor in these regions. A less computationally intensive technique based on wall functions to represent the boundary layers and its effect on the solution are also explored. The calculated statistics are compared to experimental data and large-eddy simulation. The present work can be considered as the first example of computation of the full joint PDF of velocity and a transported passive scalar in an urban setting. The methodology proves successful in providing high level statistical information on the turbulence and pollutant concentration fields in complex urban scenarios.     

北京地区未来1～3天昼夜气温预报模型

采用T2 1 3数值天气预报产品资料和北京市观象台 ( 5451 1 )实时地面气象观测资料 ,运用神经网络方法 ,建立了北京市观象台 (东郊 )未来 1～ 3天 ( 0～ 72h)夜间、白天、全天平均气温及夜间最低、白天最高气温共 5项气温的预报模式 ,经检验 ,预报的均方根误差 <2℃ ,可满足供热调度节能工作的迫切需要。     

总辐射表夜间零点偏移试验与分析

总辐射表夜间零点偏移试验在夜间晴天条件下,采用室外平行对比法对不同型号的总辐射表的零点进行测试。通过数据分析,分别比较了黑白型和全黑型总辐射表、国产与进口总辐射表夜间零点偏移的大小,并分析了形成零点偏移的原因。试验结果表明,在夜间晴天条件下国产总辐射表的零点偏移小于10 W·m~(-2)通过总辐射表感应面向下水平安装和加盖试验也验证了零点偏移确实是由"冷天空"所致。     

近56年四川地区不同季节昼夜降水特征分析

本文利用四川地区1961~2016年141个气象站降水资料,分析了四川地区四季夜间和白天降水时空变化分布特征,结果表明:(1)四季夜间降水量占总降水量超过60%和夜间降水次数占总降水次数50%以上的区域分布相似且占四川大部分地区,盆地西部沿山地带以及川东南部分地区四季的夜间降水量和降水次数比值皆较大,攀西地区和川西高原部分地区在多数季节比值也相对较大,而川东北四季的夜间降水同白天降水基本相当。(2)四季的昼夜降水量、春季昼夜以及冬季白天的降水次数的气候趋势系数总体呈现为以盆地西部沿山边缘为分界,川西增加川东减少,增加和减少趋势的分布范围在不同季节有所增减;夏季和秋季的昼夜以及冬季夜间的降水次数除了高原部分地区为弱增加趋势外,四川地区整体表现为减少趋势,且秋季整个降水次数在四川东部以及攀西地区通过99%显著性检验水平。(3)整个四川地区白天和夜间降水次数呈线性减少而降水量在白天和夜间不同季节增减趋势不一致;总的来说,四季夜间降水的年代际变化较白天相对更明显,不同季节昼夜降水在不同年代的线性增减表现不一致,但秋季夜间和白天降水量和降水次数基本在2000年左右之前为线性减少趋势,之后为增加。      

Dispersion Modelling of the Kilauea Plume

Emissions from the Kilauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risksto the Hawaiian community. This paper describes progress toward simulating theconcentration and dispersion of plumes of volcanic aerosol after they emanate from thePu'u O'o vent of the Kilauea volcano.In order to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersionof volcanic aerosol, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HY-SPLIT) model was used. Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were employed as input for theHY-SPLIT model. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft, and ground-based observations collected during a field experiment was used to validate the model simulation of aerosol distribution.The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation, and concentration gradients as deduced from satellite images of aerosol optical depth.Comparison of the modelled and observed values suggests that the model was able to produce reasonable plume concentrations and spatial gradients downwind of the source. Model concentrations were generally less than those observed on the leeward side of the Island of Hawaii. This deficiency may be explained by a lack of (i) background concentrations, (ii) local sources of pollution and/or (iii) sea-breeze circulation in the prognostic input wind field. These results represent early progress toward the goal of future operational application of the HY-SPLIT model to predict volcanic aerosol concentrations in Hawaii. This may help mitigate their negative impacts of plumes respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation.     

Modelling Pollutant Dispersion in a Street Network

This study constitutes a further step in the analysis of the performances of a street network model to simulate atmospheric pollutant dispersion in urban areas. The model, named SIRANE, is based on the decomposition of the urban atmosphere into two sub-domains: the urban boundary layer, whose dynamics is assumed to be well established, and the urban canopy, represented as a series of interconnected boxes. Parametric laws govern the mass exchanges between the boxes under the assumption that the pollutant dispersion within the canopy can be fully simulated by modelling three main bulk transfer phenomena: channelling along street axes, transfers at street intersections, and vertical exchange between street canyons and the overlying atmosphere. Here, we aim to evaluate the reliability of the parametrizations adopted to simulate these phenomena, by focusing on their possible dependence on the external wind direction. To this end, we test the model against concentration measurements within an idealized urban district whose geometrical layout closely matches the street network represented in SIRANE. The analysis is performed for an urban array with a fixed geometry and a varying wind incidence angle. The results show that the model provides generally good results with the reference parametrizations adopted in SIRANE and that its performances are quite robust for a wide range of the model parameters. This proves the reliability of the street network approach in simulating pollutant dispersion in densely built city districts. The results also show that the model performances may be improved by considering a dependence of the wind fluctuations at street intersections and of the vertical exchange velocity on the direction of the incident wind. This opens the way for further investigations to clarify the dependence of these parameters on wind direction and street aspect ratios.     

Using Temperature Fluctuation Measurements to Estimate Meteorological Inputs for Modelling Dispersion During Convective Conditions in Urban Areas

We examine the performance of several methods to estimate meteorological inputs for modelling dispersion in urban areas during convective conditions. Sensible heat flux, surface friction velocity and turbulent velocities are estimated from measurements of mean wind speed and the standard deviation of temperature fluctuations at a single level on a tower at two suburban sites and at one urban site in Riverside, California. These estimates are compared with observations made at these sites during a field study conducted in 2007. The sensible heat flux is overestimated in the urban area, while it is underestimated at a suburban site when temperature fluctuations are used in the free convection formulation to estimate heat flux. The bias in heat flux estimates can be reduced through a correction that depends on stability. It turns out that the bias in heat flux estimates has a minor effect on the prediction of surface friction velocity and turbulent velocities. Estimates of sensible heat flux, surface friction velocity and turbulent velocities are sensitive to estimates of aerodynamic roughness length, and we suggest estimating the aerodynamic roughness length through detailed micrometeorological measurements made during a limited field study. An examination of the impact of the uncertainty in estimating surface micrometeorology on concentrations indicates that, at small distances from a surface release, ground-level concentrations computed using estimates of heat flux and surface friction compare well with the those based on observed values: the bias is small and the 95% confidence interval of the ratio of the two concentrations is 1.7. However, at distances much larger than the Obukhov length, this confidence interval is close to 2.3 because errors in both friction velocity and heat flux affect plume spread. Finally, we show that using measurements of temperature fluctuations in estimating heat flux is an improvement on that based on the surface energy balance, even when net radiation measurements are available.     

A Concentration pdf for the Relative Dispersion of a Contaminant Plume in the Atmosphere

Observations of the dispersion of a contaminant plume in theatmospheric boundary layer, obtained using a Lidar, are analysedin a coordinate frame relative to the instantaneous centre of massof the plume. To improve the estimates of relative dispersionstatistics, maximum entropy inversion is used to remove noise fromthe Lidar concentration profiles before carrying out the analysis.A parametric form is proposed for the probability density function(pdf) of concentration, consisting of a mixture of a betadistribution and of a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD). Thispdf allows for the possibility of a unimodal or bimodaldistribution, and is shown to give a satisfactory fit toobservations from a range of positions relative to the source. Thevariation of the fitted parameters with crossplume location isanalysed, and the maximum possible concentration is found todecrease away from the plume centre.     

The Canadian Meteorological Centre's Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling Suite

This paper describes the integrated suite of Lagrangian transport and dispersion models in operation at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. These models have been in use for several years and are applied to many types of environmental emergencies covering spatial scales from the very local to the global. The Modèle Lagrangien Courte Distance (MLCD) is used for atmospheric spills of the order of a few kilometres. The Modèle Lagrangien de dispersion de particules d'ordre 1 (MLDP1) is normally used for events affecting areas less than 100?km; Modèle Lagrangien dispersion de particules d'ordre zéro (MLDP0) is used for events of continental and global consequences. The Modèle Lagrangien dispersion de particules mode mixte (MLDPmm) alternates between first-order and zeroth-order depending on criteria specified by the user. The theoretical bases of the models are presented, and the main algorithms used in their implementation are discussed. Modelling of the diffusion processes is based on a stochastic differential equation with the assumption of quasi-stationary Gaussian turbulence, locally homogeneous in the horizontal. The practical aspects of the operational implementation are also described. Using these models, results from simulations of real cases on scales ranging from the very local, to a few kilometres, to regional (approximately 100?km) to continental (approximately 1000?km) and to global (approximately 10,000?km) are compared and validated with available observational data.     

北京市区大气中单个硝酸盐粒子的特征

本文采用试剂薄膜法和Ｘ射线能谱分析了北京市区大气中含硝酸盐的单个气溶胶粒子特征。粒子按粒径分为粗粒子（d＞1 μm）和细粒子（1 μm≥d＞0.1 μm），结果表明:粗粒子和细粒子中都有含硝酸盐的粒子，而且发现了许多纯硝酸盐细粒子。文中对这些粒子的形成机制进行了详细讨论。     

Oxidation of Elemental Mercury in the Atmosphere; Constraints Imposed by Global Scale Modelling

We use the global mercury model published by Bergan et al. (1999) to evaluate the potential role of ozone and the hydroxyl radical as gas phase oxidants for the oxidation of elemental mercury in the atmosphere. The magnitude of natural and man-made mercury emissions are taken from recent literature estimates. We consider only two mercury reservoirs, elemental mercury, Hg⁰, and the more soluble divalent form, HgII. Wet and dry deposition of HgII is explicitly treated.Applying monthly mean fields of ozone for the oxidation of gas phase Hg⁰ and using the reaction rate by Hall (1995) yields a global transformation of Hg⁰ to HgII which is too slow to keep the simulated concentration of Hg⁰ near observed values. This shows that there must be additional important removal processes for Hg⁰ or that the reaction rate proposed by Hall (1995) is too slow. A simulation in which the oxidation rate was artificially increased, so that the global turn-over time of Hg⁰ is one year and the simulated average concentration of Hg⁰ realistic, produces latitudinal and seasonal variations in Hg⁰ that do not support the hypothesis that gas phase reaction with O₃ is the major oxidation process for Hg⁰.Recent studies indicate that OH may be an important gas phase oxidant for Hg⁰ (Sommar et al., 2001). Using OH as the sole oxidantand applying the oxidation rate by Sommar et al., we calculate aconcentration of Hg⁰ well below (about a factor of three) the observations. By prescribing a slower rate, corresponding to a turn-over time of Hg⁰ of one year, we calculate concentrations of both Hg⁰ in surface air and HgII in precipitation which correspond reasonably well, both in magnitude and temporal variation, with seasonal observations in Europe and North America. This result supports the suggestion that the oxidation by OH is an important pathway for the removal of Hg⁰. In view of the uncertainties associated with our calculations, this conclusion should still be regarded as tentative.     

Including the Urban Canopy Layer in a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - When wind blows over the ocean, short wind-waves (of wavelength smaller than 10 m) are generated, rapidly reaching an equilibrium with the overlying turbulence (at...     

Modelling the Interaction Between a River Surface and the Atmosphere at the Bottom of a Valley

The role of a river of small dimensions in driving the surface exchange of sensible and latent heat fluxes at the bottom of a valley is investigated using large-eddy simulation (LES). Simulations were performed using different valley topographies, river widths and large-scale wind speed and direction. In all cases, the river acted as a sink of both sensible and latent heat during daytime. Despite the general agreement concerning the flux direction above the river surface, specific differences exist between the simulations. The topography enhances the wind divergence caused by the river, and the larger negative surface fluxes above the river occur when there are no slopes, a consequence of larger wind speeds above the river. For large-scale winds aligned with the valley axis, the surface fluxes depend on the large-scale wind speed, but this dependence is reduced if the large-scale wind is perpendicular to the valley axis. There is a minimum of temperature and a maximum of specific humidity above the river surface. The scalar budgets show that sensible heat flux converges above the river, being balanced by the warm air subsidence at the centre of the valley. Latent heat fluxes, on the other hand, converge above the river surface, and they are balanced by the horizontal advection of humidity towards the river margins.     

Scale Modelling of Nocturnal Cooling in Urban Parks

Scale modelling is used to determine the relative contribution of heat transfer processes to the nocturnal cooling of urban parks and the characteristic temporal and spatial variation of surface temperature. Validation is achieved using a hardware model-to-numerical model-to-field observation chain of comparisons. For the calm case, modelling shows that urban-park differences of sky view factor (_s) and thermal admittance () are the relevant properties governing the park cool island (PCI) effect. Reduction in sky view factor by buildings and trees decreases the drain of longwave radiation from the surface to the sky. Thus park areas near the perimeter where there may be a line of buildings or trees, or even sites within a park containing tree clumps or individual trees, generally cool less than open areas. The edge effect applies within distances of about 2.2 to 3.5 times the height of the border obstruction, i.e., to have any part of the park cooling at the maximum rate a square park must be at least twice these dimensions in width. Although the central areas of parks larger than this will experience greater cooling they will accumulate a larger volume of cold air that may make it possible for them to initiate a thermal circulation and extend the influence of the park into the surrounding city. Given real world values of _s and it seems likely that radiation and conduction play almost equal roles in nocturnal PCI development. Evaporation is not a significant cooling mechanism in the nocturnal calm case but by day it is probably critical in establishing a PCI by sunset. It is likely that conditions that favour PCI by day (tree shade, soil wetness) retard PCI growth at night. The present work, which only deals with PCI growth, cannot predict which type of park will be coolest at night. Complete specification of nocturnal PCI magnitude requires knowledge of the PCI at sunset, and this depends on daytime energetics.     

Wind-tunnel Modelling of Dispersion from a Scalar Area Source in Urban-Like Roughness

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ _p = λ _f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w _T /U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness.     

Pollutant Plume Dispersion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Idealized Urban Roughness

The Gaussian model of plume dispersion is commonly used for pollutant concentration estimates. However, its major parameters, dispersion coefficients, barely account for terrain configuration and surface roughness. Large-scale roughness elements (e.g. buildings in urban areas) can substantially modify the ground features together with the pollutant transport in the atmospheric boundary layer over urban roughness (also known as the urban boundary layer, UBL). This study is thus conceived to investigate how urban roughness affects the flow structure and vertical dispersion coefficient in the UBL. Large-eddy simulation (LES) is carried out to examine the plume dispersion from a ground-level pollutant (area) source over idealized street canyons for cross flows in neutral stratification. A range of building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios, covering the regimes of skimming flow, wake interference, and isolated roughness, is employed to control the surface roughness. Apart from the widely used aerodynamic resistance or roughness function, the friction factor is another suitable parameter that measures the drag imposed by urban roughness quantitatively. Previous results from laboratory experiments and mathematical modelling also support the aforementioned approach for both two- and three-dimensional roughness elements. Comparing the UBL plume behaviour, the LES results show that the pollutant dispersion strongly depends on the friction factor. Empirical studies reveal that the vertical dispersion coefficient increases with increasing friction factor in the skimming flow regime (lower resistance) but is more uniform in the regimes of wake interference and isolated roughness (higher resistance). Hence, it is proposed that the friction factor and flow regimes could be adopted concurrently for pollutant concentration estimate in the UBL over urban street canyons of different roughness.     

Using the OSPM Model on Pollutant Dispersion in an Urban Street Canyon

An observational campaign was conducted in the street canyon of Zhujiang Road in Nanjing city in 2007.Hourly mean concentrations of PM10 were measured at street and roof levels.The Operational Street Pollution Model(OSPM)street canyon dispersion model was used to calculate the street concentrations and the results were compared with the measurements.The results show that there is good agreement between measured and predicted concentrations.The correlation coecient R2 values(R2 is a measure of the correlation of the predicted and measured time series of concentrations)are 0.5319,0.8044,and 0.6630 for the scatter plots of PM10 corresponding to light wind speed conditions,higher wind speed conditions,and all wind speed conditions,respectively.PM10 concentrations tend to be smaller for the higher wind speed cases and decrease rapidly with increasing wind speed.The presentations of measured and modelled concentration dependence on wind direction show fairly good agreement.PM10 concentrations measured on the windward side are relatively smaller,compared with the corresponding results for the leeward side.This study demonstrates that it is possible to use the OSPM to model PM10 dispersion rules for an urban street canyon.