Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA

Droughts in the southeast USA have been linked to economic losses and intractable water conflicts. The region has witnessed several severe droughts events during the period from 1901 to 2005. In this study, spatiotemporal variability in meteorological drought characteristics in the southeast were analyzed using two different datasets by the means of standard precipitation index and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index for the period 1901–2005 for agricultural and non-agricultural seasons. The study periods were divided into three epochs 1901–1935, 1936–1970, and 1971–2005 and drought characteristics, in terms of severity, frequency, number, and trends were analyzed. Additionally, areal extent, drought severities and return periods associated with three severe drought years 1904, 1954, and 2000 were analyzed. Except for the state of Florida, results indicate decrease in drought severity during the recent epoch of 1970–2005 in the study domain. Trend analysis confirms that the study domain has become wetter over the last 105 years. Wetting trends were more prominent in the agricultural season. Additionally, droughts seem to have migrated from the western part of the study area encompassing the states of Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi to the Florida panhandle region during the recent epoch. Droughts exhibited higher spatiotemporal variability during the agricultural season compared to the non-agricultural seasons. Results also showed that early to mid-1950s experienced some of the most severe droughts in the study domain. Some of the drought events, such as the drought of 1954 and 2000, have been equivalent to a 100-year drought event in the southeast. The results from this study form the benchmark for studying the impacts of future climate change projections on meteorological droughts in the southeast.     

气候变化下中国主要流域气象水文干旱潜在风险传播

全球气候变化影响了气象水文要素的时空分布特性,气象水文干旱事件的转化关系及风险传播特征亟待研究。基于站点、栅格观测资料和CMIP5（Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase5）的19个气候模式输出数据,采用新安江等4个水文模型模拟了中国135个流域历史（1961—2005年）和未来时期（2011—2055年,2056—2100年）的水文过程,计算了SPI（Standard Precipitation Index）和SRI（Standard Runoff Index）干旱指标,通过游程理论识别了气象干旱与水文干旱事件,利用Copula函数与最大可能权函数度量二维干旱风险特征,定量评估了气象干旱至水文干旱的潜在风险传播特性。结果表明:①气象-水文干旱对气候变化响应强烈,华北和东北地区的干旱联合重现期增大,干旱潜在风险减小,华中和华南地区的干旱联合重现期减少60%~80%,干旱潜在风险增加;②气象干旱与水文干旱风险在历史和未来时段均存在显著的正相关关系,相关系数超过0.99;③各流域水文干旱风险变化对气象干旱风险变化的敏感程度不会随气候变暖发生较大变化,但未来北方地区水文干旱同气象干旱同时发生的概率将会小幅度增加。     

Streamwater chemistry in three contrasting monolithologic Czech catchments

Hydrochemical patterns resulting from differing bedrock geochemistry were ascertained by concurrent streamwater sampling in three small catchments, each underlain by geochemically contrasting silicate rock types in the western Czech Republic, Central Europe in 2001–2010. The catchments are situated 5–7 km apart in the Slavkov Forest and are occupied by Norway spruce (Picea abies) plantations. They have similar altitude, area, topography, mean annual air temperature, and atmospheric deposition fluxes. The amount of base cations oxides (Ca + Mg + Na + K) is markedly different among the three studied rocks (leucogranite 8%, amphibolite 22%, serpentinite 36%). The leucogranite contains a very small amount of MgO, while the serpentinite contains extremely large amounts of MgO. The amphibolite contains an intermediate amount of MgO and elevated CaO. The Lysina, on leucogranite, exhibited very small concentrations of Mg (median 0.4 mg L⁻¹) in streamwater; Pluh?v Bor, on serpentinite, contained extremely high concentrations of streamwater Mg (18 mg L⁻¹). Streamwater in the Na Zeleném catchment, on amphibolite, contained an intermediate amount of Mg and an elevated Ca. Very low pH (4.2), negative alkalinity (−60 μeq L⁻¹) and high inorganic monomeric Al concentrations (0.3 mg L⁻¹) were found in the stream draining leucogranite. Serpentinite streamwater exhibited the highest pH (7.6), alkalinity (+940 μeq L⁻¹) and Ni concentrations (100 μg L⁻¹). Aquatic chemistry reflected the composition of the underlying rocks within the studied catchments. Contrasting streamwater compositions of the studied catchments were generated according to the MAGIC model simulations mainly by differences in chemical weathering rates of base cations (65 meq m⁻² a⁻¹ at Lysina, 198 meq m⁻² a⁻¹ at Na Zeleném, and 241 meq m⁻² a⁻¹ at Pluh?v Bor).     

The spatio-temporal variability of droughts using the standardized precipitation index in Yunnan,China

As the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO₂) has been under intensive studied in the last two decades. This paper addresses the research that whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO₂ emissions exists in G20 group—an international forum for governments and central banks from 19 countries and European Union. To analyze the studied relationship thoroughly, other four explanatory variables—two trade openness terms, the ratio of secondary industry value-added to GDP and population density—are employed to investigate whether they have any influences on the existence and shapes of EKC. In the empirical study, two multinational panel data sets covering the periods between 1960 and 2010 (50 years) and between 1990 and 2010 (20 years) are utilized, and the panel data fixed effects and generalized method of moments estimators are employed. The estimation results indicate that the EKC indeed exists in the G20 members as a whole. To investigate whether the existence of EKC depends on the level of economic growth, the G20 countries are further divided into two subgroups: developed and developing countries. Although the estimation results suggest that there exists EKC in developing countries during both 20- and 50-year period, there is no persuasive evidence to prove the existence of EKC in developed countries during the 20-year period. For the time periods we studied, most developed countries have seen relatively stable or even decreasing CO₂ emissions, while for the majority of the developing countries, the peak of CO₂ emissions could not be reached in the near future.     

Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales

Natural Hazards - The future changes in water resources are essential for water resources management and agricultural production in the context of climate change. In this paper, by adopting five...     

Intraday variability of three flat-spectrum radio sources

Searches for intraday variability in the flat-spectrum radio sources J0527+0331, J0721+0406, and J1728+0427 have been carried out at 3.5 cm using the 32-m radio telescope of the Zelenchuk Observatory of the Kvazar-KVO complex of the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (located near the Zelenchuk Village, Karachaevo-Cherkesskaya Republic). Intraday variabiility with characteristic time scales from one to five hours was detected in all three sources.     

Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India

This study analyses regional drought characteristics (frequency, severity, and persistence) of meteorological droughts occurred in the northwestern parts falling under arid and semiarid regions of India with mean annual rainfall ranging between 100 and 900 mm. A drought is defined as a season or a year with rainfall less than 75% of corresponding mean at a place. Long-term monthly rainfall records (1901–2013) of 90 districts of north-west India located in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat are used in the analysis. The percentage departure of seasonal rainfall from long-term average rainfall has been used for identification of onset, termination, and quantification of drought severity. The average frequency varied from once every 3–4 years. The westerly districts have an average drought return period of 3 years, while districts lying toward the east had droughts once every 4 years. Only four of the 90 districts in the study area experienced droughts once every 5 years. Persistent droughts of 2, 3, and 4 year duration occurred widely. Severe droughts occurred in the years 1904, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1931, 1939, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1993, and 2002, with an average frequency of severe drought events of one in 10 years. The analysis presented in this paper improves understanding of the regional drought characteristics and will inform drought mitigations and strategies in these arid and semiarid areas.     

中国区域干旱的持续性特征研究

利用1961-2012年中国区域586个气象站的降水、气温、日照时数、相对湿度、风速等资料计算了逐月K干旱指数, 在此基础上, 对全国16个区的干旱持续性特征进行了研究. 结果表明: 华北、河套、西北地区东部、西南地区北部、黄淮及新疆南部地区干旱的持续性较强, 常发生3个月以上的长期干旱过程, 并且容易在旱情解除后的短期内(1个月)再次出现干旱; 而南方、东北和新疆北部地区干旱的持续性较弱, 以1个月的短期干旱为主, 且干旱过程之间的时间间隔相对较长, 大多为3个月以上; 华北、河套、西北地区东部、西南地区北部和南部、以及华南地区的干旱过程在冬、秋季开始的频次最高, 且大部分在春季结束, 而冬、春两季的干旱明显比夏、秋两季偏多. 100°E以西(新疆北部除外)的广大地区干旱过程的开始时间主要集中在秋季, 结束时间集中在春、冬两季; 同时, 冬季和秋季干旱多发, 其次是春季, 夏季出现的干旱频次最少.     

Understanding the impact of droughts in the Yarmouk Basin,Jordan: monitoring droughts through meteorological and hydrological drought indices

This article assesses drought status in the Yarmouk Basin (YB), in northern Jordan, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Water-Level Index (SWI), and the Percent Departure from Normal rainfall (PDNimd) during the years 1993–2014. The results showed that the YB suffers from frequent and irregular periods of drought as variations in drought intensity and frequency have been observed. The SPI results revealed that the highest drought magnitude of ??2.34 appeared at Nuaimeh rainfall station in 1991. This station has also experienced severe drought particularly in years 1995, 1999, 2005, and 2012 with SPI values ranging from ??1.51 to ??1.59. Some other rainfall stations such as Baqura, Ibbin, Khanasiri, Kharja, Mafraq police, Ramtha, Turra, and Umm Qais have also suffered several periods of drought mostly in 1993. The SWI results show the highest extreme drought events in 2001 in Souf well while other extreme drought periods were observed at Wadi Elyabis well in 1994 and at Mafraq well in 1995. As compared to SPI maps, our SWI maps reflect severe and extreme drought events in most years, negatively impacting the groundwater levels in the study area.     

Debris-flow susceptibility of upland catchments

Over the last three decades, many regional studies in mountain ranges under temperate climate revealed that it is possible to discriminate debris-flow and fluvial fans from morphometric indicators measured at the scale of the catchment and the fan itself. The most commonly used indicators are the Melton index (R), a normalized index of the gravitational energy of the catchment, and the fan slope (S). A wide range of thresholds have been proposed for discriminating purpose, but these are generally based on a small population of catchments and may be highly influenced by ambiguous fans included in the data set. A database of 620 upland catchments from several mountain ranges under temperate climate was compiled from the literature to propose robust discriminant morphometric thresholds for debris-flow versus fluvial responses. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were performed using the whole data set, and a leave-one-out cross-validation was used to evaluate performances of the models. Sensitivity and specificity scores obtained for LDA and LR were 0.96 and 0.73, and 0.95 and 0.75, respectively. It is also shown that the channel slope above which debris-flow is observed decreases with the gravitational energy of the catchment. Limitations of the morphometric discrimination are discussed.     

Impact of climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the last 20,000 years: oceanic and atmospheric responses

Eolian input fluctuations and paleoceanographic conditions in the western Mediterranean have been reconstructed by using a multi-proxy approach to infer climate variability for the last 20,000 yr. A sediment core from the East Alboran Sea basin provides high-resolution geochemical, mineralogical and grain size distribution records from the Last Glacial Maximum onward. The accurate chronology obtained, closely related with the North Greenland Ice core Project, has provided a detailed paleoclimate reconstruction at the centennial–millennial time scale. Mineral and chemical compositions as well as sediment grain size distribution have been used to establish both fluvial and eolian input variations, deep-water current intensity, and ventilation and productivity conditions at the time of deposition. During the cold period Greenland Stadial-2a, the analyzed proxies evidence significant climate oscillations. Redox proxies, showing marked Mn/Al and Fe/Al peaks, as well as granulometric parameters, support major changes in thermohaline circulation, with active circulation triggered by the Western Mediterranean Deep Water formation. Ba/Al ratios and the presence of authigenic barite point to high productivity during the Last Heinrich event. At this time, Zr/Al, Si/Al and Ti/Al ratios as well as quartz and palygorskite contents also corroborate dryer conditions in the Alboran borderlands, with a major reorganization of atmospheric circulation at the beginning of the deglaciation and during the Last Heinrich event. In contrast, a decreasing trend in the Zr/Al ratio and increasing Mg/Al, K/Al and illite + chlorite/kaolinite ratios would indicate enhanced river runoff and supporting lower eolian dust input and wetter periods during the Bölling–Alleröd. Short-term and abrupt climate oscillations such as the Intra-Alleröd Cold Period are likewise reflected by minor yet conspicuous changes in eolian proxies. During the Younger Dryas, we distinguish an initial cold and dry phase, with major westerlies intensity, thermohaline reactivation, and high productivity levels, and a second wetter phase characterized by sporadic rainfalls over poorly vegetated surrounding continental areas. Then, during the Holocene, alternating phases of major humidity and aridity were recorded by major fluctuations in detrital input. These are also correlated with recurrent forest cover declines reported from pollen records, with a noteworthy early decline in the African Humid Period. During the Holocene, an initial demise of the Last Organic-Rich Layer is also evidenced, tentatively associated with aspiration forces promoted by intense thermohaline circulation through the Gibraltar Strait.     

Arsenic variability and groundwater age in three water supply wells in southeast New Hampshire

Three wells in New Hampshire were sampled bimonthly over three years to evaluate the temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and groundwater age.All samples had measurable concentrations of arsenic throughout the entire sampling period and concentrations in individual wells had a mean variation of more than 7 μg/L.The time series data from this sampling effort showed that arsenic concentrations ranged from a median of 4 μg/L in a glacial aquifer well(SGW-65)to medians of 19μg/L and37 μg/L in wells(SGW-93 and KFW-87)screened in the bedrock aquifer,respectively.These high arsenic concentrations were associated with the consistently high pH(median≥8)and low dissolved oxygen(median0.1 mg/L)in the bedrock aquifer wells,which is typical of fractured crystalline bedrock aquifers in New Hampshire.Groundwater from the glacial aquifer often has high dissolved oxygen,but in this case was consistently low.The pH also is generally acidic in the glacial aquifer but in this case was slightly alkaline(median = 7.5).Also,sorption sites may be more abundant in glacial aquifer deposits than in fractured bedrock which may contribute to lower arsenic concentrations.Mean groundwater ages were less than 50 years old in all three wells and correlated with conservative tracer concentrations,such as chloride;however,mean age was not directly correlated with arsenic concentrations.Arsenic concentrations at KFW-87 did correlate with water levels,in addition,there was a seasonal pattern,which suggests that either the timing of or multiple sampling efforts may be important to define the full range of arsenic concentrations in domestic bedrock wells.Since geochemically reduced conditions and alkaline pHs are common to both bedrock and glacial aquifer wells in this study,groundwater age correlates less strongly with arsenic concentrations than geochemical conditions.There also is evidence of direct hydraulic connection between the glacial and bedrock aquifers,which can influence arsenic concentrations.Correlations between arsenic concentrations and the age of the old fraction of water in SGW-65 and the age of the young fraction of water in SGW-93 suggest that water in the two aquifers may be mixing or at least some of the deeper,older water captured by the glacial aquifer well may be from a similar source as the shallow young groundwater from the bedrock aquifer.The contrast in arsenic concentrations in the two aquifers may be because of increased adsorption capacity of glacio-fluvial sediments,which can limit contaminants more than fractured rock.In addition,this study illustrates that long residence times are not necessary to achieve more geochemically evolved conditions such as high pH and reduced conditions as is typically found with older water in other regions.     

Groundwater response to climate variability in Mediterranean type climate zones with comparisons of California (USA) and Portugal

Hydrogeology Journal - Aquifers are a fundamental source of freshwater, yet they are particularly vulnerable in coastal regions with Mediterranean type climate, due to both climatic and...     

A probabilistic model for the prediction of meteorological droughts in Venezuela

Droughts occur when rainfalls diminish or cease for several days, months or years. In the last five years several meteorological droughts have occurred in Venezuela, impacting negatively water supply, hydro-power and agriculture sectors. In order to provide institutions with tools to manage the water resources, a probabilistic model has been developed and validated to predict in advance the occurrence of meteorological droughts in the country using monthly series of 632 rainfall stations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to identify dry events of each rainfall series. A principal component analysis associated to a geographic information system was used to define geographically continuous homogeneous sub-regions (HS) for the values of SPI. For each HS a representative station was selected (reference station, RS). A lagged correlation analysis was applied to the SPI series of the RS and the corresponding series of anomaly indices of 10 macroclimatic variables (MV). The four MV with higher correlation in each RS were organized into three levels (-1, 0 and +1), using the quartiles Q₂ and Q₄ as values of truncation. The SPI series are expressed in four ranges: non-dry, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The conditional probability of occurrence of the four ranges of SPI was determined in every combination that can occur in the four VM best correlated. The resulting model in each RS was validated using the SPI series from 20 meteorological stations operated by the Servicio de Meteorología de la Fuerza Aérea Venezolana (Meteorological Service of the Venezuelan Air Force) which were not used in the development of the models. Results indicate that models detected the occurrence of ES with an accuracy ranging from 85.19 to 100%; the success is directly proportional to the length of records used in the development of the model. This methodology could be applied in any country that has long, continuous and homogeneous rainfall series.     

Glacial rapid variability in deep-water temperature and δO from the Western Mediterranean Sea

Deep-water temperatures (DWTs) from the Western Mediterranean Sea are reconstructed for the last 50 ka based on the analysis of Mg/Ca ratios in benthic foraminifera from core MD95-2043 collected in the Alboran Sea. The exceptionally high sedimentation rates of this core and the robust chronology available allow discussion of the results in the context of the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) rapid climatic variability. The applicability of Mg/Ca thermometry in the Western Mediterranean Deep-Water mass (WMDW) is first tested by the analysis of different benthic species in a collection of Mediterranean core tops. The results indicate the need of a readjustment of the existing Cibicidoides spp. calibrations in order to reconstruct present Western Mediterranean DWT values (12.7 °C). Different physiological effects in the Mg uptake between the C. pachydermus living in different regions could account for this offset in the Mediterranean samples. Consequently, the obtained DWT record still has many uncertainties in absolute terms but trends provide valuable information on past changes in WMDW conditions. The DWT record shows significant oscillations in relation to the D–O cycles, colder values occurred during the time of D–O stadials and warmer ones during D–O interstadials. Surprisingly, the coldest DWTs occurred during the time of Heinrich Event 4 (HE4) and not during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when DWTs were mostly warm. These and other particular features of the DWT reconstruction mimic changes in the vegetation from the Eastern Mediterranean indicating the control of the Mediterranean climate on the DWT record. Paired analyses of Mg/Ca and δ¹⁸Occ (calcite δ¹⁸O) provide the opportunity to reconstruct deep-water δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Odw) and past salinities and hence changes in past WMDW density. Due to the large error associated with these calculations, they can only be discussed in terms of relative changes between different intervals. The results suggest the dominance of a heavier water end member during glacial times and a lighter one during the early Holocene in relation to the δ¹⁸Odw conditions present today. Densest WMDW were formed during most of Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 2 and during the D–O Stadials not associated with HEs, while lightest WMDW dominated during D–O Interstadials. The δ¹⁸Odw record shows a D–O variability pattern likely controlled by changes in the composition and intensity of the local run-off and also to changes in the δ¹⁸Ow signal of the Atlantic inflow. Changes in the residence time of the Mediterranean waters, governed by the global sea level, are also considered to exert an important role governing Mediterranean δ¹⁸Ow and salinity, particularly during MIS 2. Overall, our results are consistent with the formation of dense WMDW during D–O stadials and even denser during most of MIS 2.     

Investigation of spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts in a semi-arid region

Natural Hazards - Spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts were investigated for the semi-arid Karkheh watershed, located in western Iran with an area of 41,470 km2,...