On the influence of changes in the drag relation on surface wind speeds and storm surge forecasts

In this study it is investigated how uncertainties in the magnitude of the drag coefficient translate into uncertainties in storm surge forecasts in the case of severe weather. A storm surge model is used with wind stress data from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, to simulate several recent storms over the North Sea. For a fixed wind speed, the wind stress is linear in the drag coefficient. However, in the NWP model the wind speed is not fixed and increasing the drag in the NWP model results into reduced wind speeds. The results from simulations show that for given increase in the drag coefficient, the weakening of the 10-m wind field reduces the increase in the stress considerably. When the Charnock parameter is increased in the NWP model, the resulting relative changes in the wind stress are almost independent of the wind speed. This is related to the fact that the depth of the surface boundary layer depends on the wind speed. The ratio between relative changes in the wind stress and relative changes in the drag coefficient depends on the wind speed. For 10-m wind speeds larger than 20?m?s^?1 the ratio is 0.52; for lower wind speed criteria the ratio is somewhat larger (??0.60). Approximately 36% of the relative change in the drag coefficient translates into a relative change in the surge in stations at the Dutch coast. The relative increase in the storm surge is approximately 68% of the relative increase in the stress.     

The impact of extra-tropical transitioning on storm surge and waves in catastrophe risk modelling: application to the Japanese coastline

Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process.     

A numerical study of storm surges caused by cold-air outbreaks in the Bohai Sea

Storm surges in the Bohai Sea are not only associated with tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones, but also cold-air outbreaks. Cold-air outbreaks attack China from four major tracks, with each track having its own prevailing wind over the Bohai Sea. As the pressure field of cold-air outbreaks can be converted into the surface wind, storm surges can be investigated by the pressure field of cold-air outbreaks entirely. This paper took the different major tracks, pressure field, and high wind period into consideration and constructed 20 scenarios to describe the actual situation of cold-air outbreaks. Based on the results modeled by FVCOM, the influence of various cold-air outbreaks on the maximum surge in the Bohai Sea and the probability of the surge elevation at three typical tide gauges were investigated. Finally, a powerful decision-making tool to estimate storm surges induced by cold-air outbreaks was provided.     

Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

Storm surges in the North Sea are one of the threats for coastal infrastructure and human safety. Under an anthropogenic climate change, the threat of extreme storm surges may be enlarged due to changes in the wind climate. Possible future storm surge climates based on transient simulations (1961–2100) are investigated with a hydrodynamical model for the North Sea. The climate change scenarios are based on regionalized meteorological conditions with the regional climate model CCLM which is forced by AR4 climate simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM under two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES A1B and B1) and two initial conditions. Possible sea level rise in the North Sea is not taken into account. The analysis of future wind-induced changes of the water levels is focused on extreme values. Special emphasis is given to the southeastern North Sea (German Bight). Comparing the 30-year averages of the annual 99 percentiles of the wind-induced water levels between the four climate realizations and the respective control climates, a small tendency toward an increase is inferred for all climate change realizations toward the end of the twenty-first century. Concerning the German Bight, the climate change signals are higher for the North Frisian coastal areas than for the East Frisian ones. This is consistent with an increase in frequency of strong westerly winds. Considering the whole time series (1961–2100) for selected areas, this tendency is superimposed with strong decadal fluctuations. It is found that uncertainties are related not only to the used models and emission scenarios but also to the initial conditions pointing to the internal natural variability.     

Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea

On 19 August 1997 Typhoon Winnie brought unusually strong and extensive coastal flooding from storm surges to the west coast of Korea, which was farenough from the typhoon's center to lack significant local wind and pressure forcing.Sea levels at some tidal stations broke 36-year records and resulted in property damages of $18,000,000. This study investigated the causes of the unusual high sea levels by using an Astronomical-Meteorological Index (AMI) and a coupled ocean wave-circulation model developed by the present authors. The AMI analysis and the numerical simulation of the surge event showed that the major cause of the high sea levels was not the standard inverse barometric effect supplemented by water piling up along the coast by the wind field of the typhoon as is usual for a typical storm surge, but rather an enhanced tidal forcing from the perigean spring tide and water transported into the Yellow Sea by the currents generated by the typhoon. The numerical results also indicated that the transported water accounted for about 50% of the increased sea levels. Another cause for the coastal flooding was the resonance coupling of the Yellow Sea (with a natural normal mode period of 37.8 h) and the predominant period of the surge (36.5 h).     

Dynamic analysis of emergency inter-organizational communication network under public health emergency: a case study of COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China

Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning.

     

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.     

Nearshore propagation of cyclonic waves

Cyclone-generated surface waves are simulated using state-of-art SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model coupled with hydrodynamic model inputs. A severe cyclonic storm passed over the Arabian Sea during 4–9th November 1982 is selected from UNISYS track records. The cyclone lasted for nearly 6 days and subsided with a land fall at Gujarat coast, west coast of India. In this study, cyclonic wind fields are generated using a well-established relationship suggested by Jelesnianski and Taylor (1973). The associated water level variations due to storm surge and surge generated currents are simulated using POM (Princeton Ocean Model). The outputs are one-way coupled with the wave model SWAN for simulating wave parameters off Gujarat, north-east basin of Arabian Sea. An extensive literature review is carried out on the progress and methodology adopted for storm wave modelling and analysis. The results presented in this paper reveal the severity of the storm event and would be highly useful for assessing the extreme wave event/climate especially for the south coast of Gujarat.     

Modeling the impact of land reclamation on storm surges in Bohai Sea,China

A nested model for the simulation of tides and storm surges in the Bohai Sea, China, has been developed based on the three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model. The larger domain covers the entire Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea with a horizontal resolution of ~10 km, and the smaller domain focuses on the Bohai Sea with a fine resolution up to ~300 m. For the four representative storm surges caused by extratropical storms and typhoons, the simulated surge heights are in good agreement with observations at coastal tide gauges. A series of sensitivity experiments are carried out to assess the influence of coastline change due to land reclamation in recent decades on water levels during storm surges. Simulation results suggest that changes in coastline cause changes in the amplitude and phase of the tidal elevation, and fluctuations of surge height after the peak stage of the storm surges. Hence, for the assessment of the influence of coastline changes on the total water level during storm surges, the amplitudes and phases of both the tidal and surge heights need to be taken into account. For the three major ports in the Bohai Bay, model results suggest that land reclamation has created a coastline structure that favors increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m. Considering that during the storm surges the total water level is close to or even exceeds the warning level for these ports, further increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m has the potential to cause severe damages and losses in these ports.

     

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.     

The role of overwash in the evolution of mixing zone morphology within barrier islands

Overwash is a major controlling factor in the morphology of the mixing zone of coastal aquifers. Conceptual models of the mixing zone describe an interface controlled by tidal oscillations, wave run-up, and other factors; however, few describe the influence of large storm events. In August 1993, Hatteras Island, North Carolina, USA, experienced a 3-m storm surge due to Hurricane Emily. Sound-side flooding infiltrated a wellfield, causing a dramatic increase in TDS levels that persisted for more than 3 years. Two-dimensional simulations with SUTRA, the USGS finite-element model, are calibrated to the TDS breakthrough data of this storm to infer model dispersivity values. Simulations using the calibrated dispersivity values, predicted flooding levels, and 54 years of hurricane records to determine the influence of the overwash events suggest that it is rare for the mixing zone to approximate the conceptual morphology. Even during quiescent periods such as between 1965 and 1975, TDS levels do not return to theoretical levels before being elevated by a subsequent storm event. Thus, while tidal oscillations and other factors are important to mixing zone development, basic wind events and more severe storm events may have more influence and lasting effect on the morphology of the mixing zone.     

A quantitative expression for the magnitude and intensity of disaster of storm surges

We here discuss the concept of the magnitude and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge and propose a method of calculation based on the principle of the wind scale and the earthquake magnitude. The magnitude of a storm surge is the quantitative index that describes the scale of the storm surge, and the intensity of disaster of a storm surge is the quantitative index that describes the losses caused by the storm surge.     

Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston,South Carolina

Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge.     

Simulation of atmospheric states for a storm surge on the west coast of Korea: model comparison between MM5, WRF and COAMPS

High-quality informations on sea level pressure and sea surface wind stress are required to accurately predict storm surges over the Korean Peninsula. The storm surge on 31 March 2007 at Yeonggwang, on the western coast, was an abrupt response to mesocyclone development. In the present study, we attempted to obtain reliable surface winds and sea level pressures. Using an optimal physical parameterization for wind conditions, MM5, WRF and COAMPS were used to simulate the atmospheric states that accompanied the storm surge. The use of MM5, WRF and COAMPS simulations indicated the development of high winds in the strong pressure gradient due to an anticyclone and a mesocyclone in the southern part of the western coast. The response to this situation to the storm surge was sensitive. A low-level warm advection was examined as a possible causal mechanism for the development of a mesocyclone in the generating storm surge. The low-level warm temperature advection was simulated using the three models, but MM5 and WRF tended to underestimate the warm tongue and overestimate the wind speed. The WRF simulation was closer to the observed data than the other simulations in terms of wind speed and the intensity of the mesocyclone. It can be concluded that the magnitude of the storm surge at Yeonggwang was dependent, not only on the development of a mesocyclone but on ocean effects as well.     

Impact of cyclonic wind field on interaction of surge–wave computations using finite-element and finite-difference models

Both finite-element and finite-difference numerical models are applied to simulate storm surges and associated currents generated by tropical cyclones that struck the coast of Andhra Pradesh, located on the east coast of India. During a cyclone, the total water level at any location on the coast is made up of the storm surge, surge–wind wave interaction and the tide. The advanced circulation two-dimensional depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model based on finite-element formulation and the two-dimensional finite-difference model of storm surges developed at IIT Delhi, hereafter referred as IITD storm surge model, are used. These models are driven by astronomical tides at the open ocean boundary and cyclonic asymmetric winds over the surface of the computational domain. Comparison of model simulated sea-surface elevations with coarse and finer spatial resolutions suggests that the grid resolution near the coast is very crucial for accurate determination of the surges in addition to the local bathymetry. The model underpredicts surges, and the peak surge location shifts more to the right of the landfall as the spatial resolution of the model becomes coarser. The numerical experiments also demonstrate that the ADCIRC model is robust over the IITD storm surge model for surge computations as the coastline is better represented in the former.     

Tropical cyclone wind field forcing for surge models: critical issues and sensitivities

Several wind fields developed for Hurricane Katrina (2005) in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are applied with the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to explore the sensitivity of predictions of coastal surges to wind fields developed by alternative methods. The alternative model predictions are evaluated against water level measurements provided by gages at two coastal locations. It is found that all the post-event analyzed wind fields yield a range of predictions of only ±10% of the available peak surge measurements regardless of whether the wind fields are produced by dynamical boundary layer models, kinematic analysis methods or a blend. However, the richness of meteorological forcing data in the GOM is not typically matched in other basins affected by tropical cyclones and errors may be much larger where storm intensity and size parameters are estimated mainly from satellite data. The attributes and remaining critical deficiencies of current methods for surface wind specification in both data-rich and data-poor environments are reviewed.     

Operational wave prediction of extreme storms in Northern Europe

The disastrous effects of numerous winter storms on the marine environment in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea during the last decade show that wind waves generated by strong winds actually represent natural hazards and require high quality wave forecast systems as warning tools to avoid losses due to the impact of rough seas. Hence, the operational wave forecast system running at the German Weather Service including a regional wave model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is checked extensively whether it provides reasonable wave forecasts, especially for periods of extraordinary high sea states during winter storms. For two selected extreme storm events that induced serious damage in the area of interest, comprehensive comparisons between wave measurements and wave model forecast data are accomplished. Spectral data as well as integrated parameters are considered, and the final outcome of the corresponding comparisons and statistical analysis is encouraging. Over and above the capability to provide good short-term forecast results, the regional wave model is able to predict extreme events as severe winter storms connected with extraordinary high waves already about 2 days in advance. Therefore, it represents an appropriate warning tool for offshore activities and coastal environment.     

Numerical simulation of storm surges in Lake Winnipeg

A high-resolution unstructured grid two-dimensional finite-element model was applied to simulate the storm surge associated with the October 2010 extratropical storm in Lake Winnipeg. The wind and pressure fields from two high-resolution weather forecast models were used to drive the hydrodynamic model. The model results were compared with the observed water levels at several stations during the storm event. The model-predicted storm surge in the range of 0.6–1.5 m is comparable with observations in the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg. Model results are further analyzed to assess the transport of water between north and south basins of Lake Winnipeg during the event. Computed water surface elevations at specific locations at the outlet of the rivers and embayments indicate that the model needs some improvements in terms of grid resolution in those areas.     

Storm Surges from Extra-Tropical Cyclones

The possible influence of climate change on the tracks of the extra-tropical cyclones as well as storm surges is studied. Two differentdata bases have been used: one for the Great Lakes of North America and the otherfor the German Bight in the North Sea of Europe. For the Great Lakes region,significant east-west and north-south shifts in the tracks of ETC'S with decadal periodicities have been observed. However, there was no trend in the amplitudes of storm surges. The most important result for the Great Lakes is that, depending upon its position relative to the constantly shifting storm tracks, a given location could eitherexperience a major storm surge or could miss out completely.The storm surges in the German Bight in general, and at Cuxhaven in particular, appear to show a slightly increasing trend in the latterpart of the 20th century. However, the most significant result for the German Bightis that the number of storm tides (i.e., multiple peaks in a given storm surge event)definitely has shown an increase in the second half of the 20th century. This increase isinterpreted as due to the influence of meso-scale weather systems embedded in the synoptic scale ETCs.     

多波束测深系统在航道淤积计算中的应用

潍坊森达美港航道受2015年3月18日黄渤海风暴潮影响导致航道泥沙淤积,为推算泥沙淤积的数量,根据航道的吨级、长度、淤积程度,选取距离海岸线远近不同、淤积程度不同的三段航道采用多波束测深系统进行海下地形测量,与风暴潮到来之前的航道地形数据进行比对,计算出三段航道受风暴潮影响后泥沙的淤积数量,推算整个航道受风暴潮影响淤积量,从而评估风暴潮给航道施工单位带来的损失。