Deglacial to middle Holocene (16,600 to 6000 calendar years BP) climate change in the northeastern United States inferred from multi-proxy stable isotope data, Seneca Lake, New York

Climate change in the northeastern United States has been inferred for the last deglaciation to middle Holocene (∼16,600 to 6000 calendar years ago) using multi-proxy data (total organic matter, total carbonate content, δ¹⁸ O calcite and δ¹³ C calcite) from a 5 m long sediment core from Seneca Lake, New York. Much of the regional postglacial warming occurred during the well-known Bolling and Allerod warm periods (∼14.5 to 13.0 ka), but climate amelioration in the northeastern United States preceded that in Greenland by ∼2000 years. An Oldest Dryas climate event (∼15.1 to 14.7 ka) is recognized in Seneca Lake as is a brief Older Dryas (∼14.1 ka) cold event. This latter cold event correlates with the regional expansion of glacial Lake Iroquois and global meltwater pulse IA. An increase in winter precipitation and a shorter growing season likely characterized the northeastern United States at this time. The Intra-Allerod Cold Period (∼13.2 ka) is also evident supporting an “Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation” at this time. The well-known Younger Dryas cold interval occurred in the northeastern United States between 12.9 and 11.6 ka, consistent with ice core data from Greenland. In the Seneca Lake record, however, the Younger Dryas appears as an asymmetric event characterized by an abrupt, high-amplitude beginning followed by a more gradual recovery. Compared to European records, the Younger Dryas in the northeastern United States was a relatively low-amplitude event. The largest amplitude and longest duration anomaly in the Seneca Lake record occurs after the Younger Dryas, between ∼11.6 and 10.3 ka. This “post-Younger Dryas climate interval” represents the last deglacial climate event prior to the start of the Holocene in the northeastern United States, but has not been recognized in Greenland or Europe. The early to middle Holocene in the northeastern United States was characterized by low-amplitude climate variability. A general warming trend during the Holocene Hypsithermal peaked at ∼9 ka coincident with maximum summer insolation controlled by orbital parameters. Millennial- to century-scale variability is also evident in the Holocene Seneca Lake record, including the well-known 8.2 ka cold event (as well as events at ∼7.1 and 6.6 ka). Hemispherical cooling during the Holocene Neoglacial in the northeastern United States began ∼5.5 ka in response to decreasing summer insolation.     

Space–time variability of denudation rates at the catchment and hillslope scales on the Tyrrhenian side of Central Italy

Studies on denudation rates can provide insight into the influence of climate change, tectonics, and human activities on landscape evolution. Research performed in Central Italy has shown considerable spatial variability of denudation rates in the major river basins. These studies have focused mainly on the Tyrrhenian side of the Italian peninsula, where Plio-Pleistocene marine deposits filling NW–SE elongated sedimentary basins have been uplifted during the Quaternary up to several hundreds of meters above present sea level. Small sub-catchments developed on clays are affected by sharp- and/or rounded-edged badlands (i.e. calanchi and biancane), representing denudation “hot spots” in the present-day morphoclimatic framework.In this paper, we analyze the relationships between indirectly estimated denudation rates at the catchment scale and field monitoring data at the hillslope scale. We attempt to better understand and quantify all hillslope processes that contribute to seasonal variability of denudation, to help with predicting the net input from “hot spots” to the overall estimated sediment yield at the basin outlets. At the hillslope scale, we discuss, in particular, the variability of denudation rates at calanchi and biancane badlands as a function of their different morphoevolution.     

Sediment rating parameters and their implications: Yangtze River, China

This study examines the characteristics of sediment rating parameters recorded at various gauging stations in the Yangtze Basin in relation to their controls. Our findings indicate that the parameters are associated with river channel morphology of the selected reaches. High b-values (> 1.600) and low log(a) values (< − 4.000) occur in the upper course of the steep rock-confined river, characterizing high unit stream power flows. Low b-values (< 0.900) and high log(a) values (> − 1.000) occur in the middle and lower Yangtze River associated with meandering reaches over low gradients, and can be taken to imply aggradation in these reaches with low stream power. Higher b-values (0.900–1.600) and lower log(a)-values (− 4.000 to − 1.000) characterize the reaches between Yichang and Xinchang, immediately below the Three Gorges. These values indicate channel erosion and bed instability that result from changes in channel gradient from the upstream steep valley to downstream low slope flood plain settings. Differences in channel morphology accompany these changes. Confined, V-shaped valleys occur upstream and are replaced downstream by broad U-shaped channels. The middle and lower Yangtze shows an apparent increase in channel instability over the past 40 years. This inference is based on sediment rating parameters from various gauging stations that record increasing b-values against decreasing log(a)-values over that time. Analysis of the sediment load data also reveals a strong correlation between changes in sediment rating curve parameters and reduction of annual sediment budget (4.70 × 10⁸ t to 3.50 × 10⁸ t/year, from the 1950s to 1990s), largely due to the damming of the Yangtze and sediment load depletion through siltation in the Dongting Lake. Short-term deviations from the general trends in the sediment rating parameters are related to hydroclimatic events. Extreme low b-values and high log(a)-values signify the major flood years, while the reverse indicates drought events. When compared with rivers from other climate settings, it is evident that the wide range of values of the Yangtze rating parameters reflects the huge discharge driven by the monsoon precipitation regime of eastern China.     

Lake Redó ecosystem response to an increasing warming the Pyrenees during the twentieth century

The ecosystem response of Lake Redó (Central Pyrenees) to fluctuations in seasonal air temperature during the last two centuries was investigated by comparison of reconstructed air temperatures with the sediment record. Fine slicing allowed a resolution of 3–6 years according to the ²¹⁰Pb dating, although it was still difficult to easily investigate the response to air temperature forcing, since extreme fluctuations in temperature occur on interannual time-scales. However, the resolution was sufficient to show responses on decadal and century scales. An overall tendency to warming in mean annual temperature in the Central Pyrenees has been caused by summer and in particular by autumn increases. Many of the measured sediment variables apparently responded to these long term trends, but the significance of the relationships was highly conditioned by the structure of the data. The variables responding most on the finer time scales were the microfossils. For diatoms, chironomids and chrysophytes the main variability correlated to summer and to autumn temperatures. For two planktonic species, Fragilaria nanana and Cyclotella pseudostelligera, we found a link of their variability with temperature fluctuations in their growing months (September and October, respectively). This relationship appeared at a certain point during a general warming trend, indicating a threshold in the response. On the other hand, no significant changes in the dominant species could be linked to temperature, nor in any significant subgroup of the 180 diatom species present in the core. In contrast, for most chironomids (particularly Paratanytarsus austriacus, Heterotrissocladius marcidus and Micropsectra radialis) a negative relationship with summer temperature extended throughout the studied period. This response of the whole group gives chironomids a more robust role as indicators for recording temperature changes on long time-scales (e.g., through the Holocene) and for lake signal inter-comparison. Finally, our results indicated that, in all cases, there was a significant resilience to high frequency changes and hysteresis despite extreme fluctuations. Although we were dealing with organisms with one or many generations per year, their populations seemed to follow the decadal trends in air temperature.     

The role of climate and vegetation in weathering and clay mineral formation in late Quaternary soils of the Swiss and Italian Alps

Interactions between climate and soil remain ambiguous, particularly when silicate weathering and clay mineral formation and transformation rates are considered in relation to global climate changes. Recent studies suggest that climate affects weathering rates much less than previously thought. Here we show that the climate in the central European Alps has a significant, but indirect, influence on the weathering of soils through vegetation. The pattern of element leaching and mineral transformations is not only due to precipitation and temperature. Element leaching was greatest in subalpine forests near the timberline; weathering is lessened at higher and lower altitudes. Vegetation, therefore, contributes significantly to weathering processes. The highest accumulation of organic matter was found in climatically cooler sites (subalpine range) where the production of organic ligands, which enhance weathering, is greatest. Patterns of smectite formation and distribution had strong similarities to that of the elemental losses of Fe and Al (R = 0.69; P < 0.01) or base cations (R = 0.58; P < 0.05). Higher precipitation rates and the production of organic chelating compounds in the soil promoted the appearance of smectites. The relationship between climate, element leaching (Fe, Al, Ca, Mg, K, Na), and smectite formation is strongly nonlinear and driven by the podzolisation process, which is more pronounced near the timberline because of the bioclimatic constellation. Climate warming will probably, in the future, lead to a decrease in SOM stocks in the subalpine to alpine range because of more favourable conditions for biodegradation that would also affect weathering processes.     

Tracking Holocene environmental changes in an alpine lake sediment core: application of regional diatom calibration, geochemistry, and pollen

Diatom abundances in the surface sediment samples of 41 mountain lakes in the central Austrian Alps (Niedere Tauern) were related to environmental variables using multi-variate techniques. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that the pH, date of autumn mixing (A _mix), mean August water temperature (T _Aug), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and relative water depth (Z _rel) made significant contributions to explain the diatom assemblage variation in the lakes of the training set. A weighted averaging partial least square regression and calibration model was used to establish Di-pH (R ² _boot= 0.72, RMSEP_boot= 0.131), and a thermistor measurements-based PLS model for A _mix (R ² _boot= 0.71, RMSEP_boot= 0.006 log₁₀ Julian days). The latter showed a better prediction than T _Aug, and was used in terms of climate change. These transfer functions, together with analyses of loss on ignition (LOI), the total carbon/nitrogen (C/N)-ratios, and selected pollen, were applied to an early to mid-Holocene (11.5–4 cal. ky BP) sediment core section from an Austrian Alpine treeline lake on crystalline bedrock. Additionally, passive sample scores in the CCA of the diatom training set were used to show trends in the variables DOC and Z _rel. During the early Holocene, diatoms indicative of increased pH, extended warm summers, and low water levels dominated. Between 10.2 and 7.6 cal. ky BP it was followed by diatom assemblages that indicated an increase in lake water depth and an earlier A _mix. The multi-proxy data suggest that the A _mix decline is the result of a series of snow-rich summer cool and wet climate fluctuations, which were divided by climate warming at ∼9 cal. ky BP. Increased A _mix, LOI and DOC, and the correspondent decline in the C/N-ratios, show subsequent climate warming between 7.3 and 6 cal. ky BP. The long-term trend in Di-pH indicates the impact of catchment-related processes during the early-Holocene, that were superimposed by climate.     

Diatom Paleolimnological Record of Holocene Climatic and Environmental Change in the Altai Mountains, Siberia

The sedimentary diatom records of three shallow lakes in the Altai Mountains, southern Siberia, were examined to assess the nature and timing of Holocene environmental changes. Few paleoenvironmental records, especially reconstructions not based on pollen, have been reported from this region. The lakes differ in elevation, annual precipitation, and catchment vegetation. Diatom assemblages in all lakes were dominated for the entire period of record by small benthic species of Pseudostaurosira Williams & Round, Staurosira Ehrenberg, and Staurosirella Williams & Round. Planktonic taxa only occur in very low abundances (<5%). The most diverse diatom flora was found in Dzhangyskol, which is situated at the lowest elevation within a forested catchment. A lack of detailed information on the ecological preferences of the dominant taxa and the complexity of environmental drivers make direct interpretation of the diatom record difficult. However, other proxies suggest that dramatic shifts in dominance between Staurosira elliptica and Staurosirella pinnata in Grusha Ozero reflect millennial-scale variability in climate. Together, chironomids and diatoms provide evidence of a cooling possibly correlative to the Younger Dryas Stade and subsequent early-Holocene warming consistent with pollen evidence of afforestation, which also is likely linked to increased humidity. By ~6000 cal year BP, the transition to a cooler, more continental climate had begun. The diatom record of Akkol shows significantly less variation in diatom community composition, but biogenic silica accumulation rates, a proxy for diatom productivity, appear to reflect climatic variability driven by insolation trends over the past 8000 years. Long-term variability in Dzhangyskol is not clearly linked to climate.     

Seasonal and inter-annual relationships between vegetation and climate in central New Mexico, USA

Linear correlations between seasonal and inter-annual measures of meteorological variables and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are calculated at six nearby yet distinct vegetation communities in semi-arid New Mexico, USA Monsoon season (June–September) precipitation shows considerable positive correlation with NDVI values from the contemporaneous summer, following spring, and following summer. Non-monsoon precipitation (October–May), temperature, and wind display both positive and negative correlations with NDVI values. These meteorological variables influence NDVI variability at different seasons and time lags. Thus vegetation responds to short-term climate variability in complex ways and serves as a source of memory for the climate system.     

Distribution and floristics of desert plant communities in the lower reaches of Tarim River, southern Xinjiang, People's Republic of China

The distribution and abundance of desert plant communities were examined in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, southern Xinjiang. Eighteen plant species were collected at 18 sites along a sequence of increasing ground-water depths in six transects. Except for Tamarix ramosissima and Populus euphratica, which were distributed across nearly all sites, most of the investigated species had low frequency of occurrence. Correspondence analysis (CA) of the 18 species revealed a separation of growth forms into distinct groups corresponding to different ground-water levels. Three clearly defined groups of growth forms were strongly associated with three distinct ground-water zones, ranging from <3, 3–5 and >5 m, respectively. Four taxa groups were found to correspond to the three ground-water zones and to several other environmental factors. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of the 18 species and seven environmental variables would suggest a major botanical gradient exists relating to ground-water depth and secondary gradients exists that include soil moisture, pH and to a lesser extent alkalinity and mineralization.     

Environmental variables related to wheat yields in the semiarid pampa region of Argentina

The current paper analyses various environmental parameters in relation to wheat yields in Bordenave, Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. The variables used are: precipitation (ppt), maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tmi) as well as those obtained by applying the Palmer model. Decadic and phenological scales are used for data corresponding to the period 1977–2000. The stepwise method is used to obtain a multi-variate equation to calculate yield taking into account environmental variables only. For a five variates model the coefficient of determination, R² equals 95.79% and the standard error of estimation is 129.0 kg ha⁻¹. In the sample yields, the incidence of total variability for thermal variables is 42.7% and for hydrological variables, 53%. The value and sign of the correlation coefficients were analysed throughout the cultivation cycle. The α coefficient is mainly responsible for yield variance during tillering and stem elongation. There is good correlation with the values of Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the flowering and grain filling stages.     

Dendrochronology in Jordan

Dendrochronology is a valuable tool for the study of past climate and increases our knowledge of climate variability beyond the short period covered by instrumental data. Two annual tree-ring width chronologies were developed for northern Jordan (Pinus halepensis and Quercus aegilops), one chronology for Carmel Mountain, Israel (Pinus halepensis), and one chronology for southern Jordan (Juniperus phoenicia). The results of our study show that the northern site chronologies are significantly correlated, but the northern and southern sites are not. A relatively high correlation was shown between October–April precipitation and a Pinus halepensis chronology, and between October–May precipitation and Quercus aegilops, both in the north. October–May precipitation was reconstructed for the time span AD 1600 to 1995 from the Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology. The longest reconstructed drought, defined as consecutive years below a threshold of 80% of the 1946–1995 mean observed October–May precipitation, was 4 years, compared with 3 years for the 1946–95 instrumental data.     

Late Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Roman harbour of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Portus</Emphasis>, Italy

We present a Holocene record of climate and environmental change in central New York (USA) inferred using lithologic and stable isotope data from two sediment cores recovered in Cayuga Lake. The record was divided into three intervals: (1) early Holocene (~11.6–8.8 ka), (2) Hypsithermal (~8.8–4.4 ka), and (3) Neoglacial (~4.4 ka to present). The early Holocene began abruptly, with rising lake level and relatively deep water. Between ~10.8 and 9.2 ka, cool and dry conditions prevailed at a time of maximum solar insolation. This anomaly has been referred to as the “post-Younger Dryas climate interval” and lasted ~1,600 years, the approximate length of one “Bond cycle.” The Hypsithermal was the warmest, wettest and most biologically productive interval of the Holocene in central New York. The Hypsithermal was characterized by centennial to multi-centennial-scale variability. The 8.2 ka event is one such variation. The Neoglacial was an interval of generally cooler and dryer conditions, falling lake levels, and several prominent climate anomalies. At approximately 2.4 ka, δ¹³C of bulk organic matter increased abruptly by 5‰ as lake level declined, and the lake flora was dominated by Chara sp. during the coldest interval of the Neoglacial. Numerous sediment variables display increased variability ~2.0 ka, which continues today. Archaeological data from the literature suggest that Native American populations may have been large enough to impact land cover by about 2.4 ka and we hypothesize that the “Anthropocene” began at about that time in central New York. We also found paleolimnological evidence for the Medieval Warm Period (~1.4–0.5 ka), which was warmer and wetter than today, and for the Little Ice Age (~500–150 years ago), a period with temperatures colder than today.     

The response of drainage basins to the late Quaternary tectonics in the Sicilian side of the Messina Strait (NE Sicily)

Despite more than 40 yr of research attributing temporal changes in streambank erosion rates to subaerial processes, little quantitative information is available on the relationships between streambank erodibility (k_d) and critical shear stress (τ_c) and the environmental conditions and processes that enhance streambank erosion potential. The study goal was to evaluate temporal changes in k_d and τ_c from soil desiccation and freeze–thaw cycling. Soil erodibility and τ_c were measured monthly in situ using a multiangle, submerged jet test device. Soil moisture, temperature, and bulk density as well as precipitation, air temperature, and stream stage were measured continuously to determine changes in soil moisture content and state. Pairwise Mann–Whitney tests indicted k_d was 2.9 and 2.1 times higher (p < 0.0065) during the winter (December–March) than in the spring/fall (April–May, October–November) and the summer (June–September), respectively. Regression analysis showed 80% of the variability in k_d was explained by freeze–thaw cycling alone. Study results also indicated soil bulk density was highly influenced by winter weather conditions (r² = 0.86): bulk density was inversely related to both soil water content and freeze–thaw cycling. Results showed that significant changes in the resistance of streambank soils to fluvial erosion can be attributed to subaerial processes. Water resource professionals should consider the implications of increased soil erodibility during the winter in the development of channel erosion models and stream restoration designs.     

Thermoregulation, water balance and plasma constituents in Sudanese desert sheep: responses to diet and solar radiation

The responses of desert rams to diet composition (concentrate vs. lucerne hay) in unshaded and shaded environments were investigated. The rectal temperature was higher (p < 0·01) with the concentrate diet but only in the afternoon, whereas the respiration rate was higher (p < 0·01) with the concentrate diet in unshaded and shaded environments during both morning and afternoon. Dry matter intake (DMI) was higher (p < 0·05) with the concentrate diet, while the ratio of water intake to DMI was higher (p < 0·01) with lucerne hay. Water gain through preformed and metabolic avenues and water loss through faeces and evaporative avenues were higher (p < 0·01) with the concentrate diet. With both diets, water turnover rate was higher (p < 0·05) in the unshaded environment. Feeding lucerne hay increased plasma total protein (p < 0·01) and albumin (p < 0·05) in unshaded and shaded environments. Plasma urea was higher (p < 0·01) with the concentrate diet. Plasma glucose level and plasma osmalality were higher (p < 0.01) and level of free fatty acids was lower (p < 0·01) with the concentrate diet in both thermal environments. Plasma cholesterol level was higher (p < 0·05) with the concentrate diet in the shaded environment, but lower (p < 0·05) in the unshaded environment. With lucerne hay, plasma cholesterol level remained the same in both environments.     

Scanning reflectance spectroscopy (380–730 nm): a novel method for quantitative high-resolution climate reconstructions from minerogenic lake sediments

High-resolution (annual to sub-decadal) quantitative reconstructions of climate variables are needed from a variety of paleoclimate archives across the world to place current climate change in the context of long-term natural climate variability. Rapid, high-resolution, non-destructive scanning techniques are required to produce such high-resolution records from lake sediments. In this study we explored the potential of scanning reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS; 380–730 nm) to produce quantitative summer temperature reconstructions from minerogenic sediments of proglacial, annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, in the eastern Swiss Alps. The scanning resolution was 2 mm, which corresponded to sediment deposition over 1–2 years. We found correlations up to r = 0.84 (p < 0.05) for the calibration period 1864–1950, between six reflectance-dependent variables and summer (JJAS) temperature. These reflectance-dependent variables (e.g. slope of the reflectance 570/630 nm, indicative of illite, biotite and chlorite; minimum reflectance at 690 nm indicative of chlorite) indicate the mineralogical composition of the clastic sediments, which is, in turn, related to climate in the catchment of this particular proglacial lake. We used multiple linear regression (MLR) to establish a calibration model that explains 84% of the variance of summer (JJAS) temperature during the calibration period 1864–1950. We then applied the calibration model downcore to develop a quantitative summer temperature reconstruction extending back to AD 1177. This temperature reconstruction is in good agreement with two independent temperature reconstructions based on documentary data that extend back to AD 1500 and tree ring data that extend back to AD 1177. This study confirms the great potential of in situ scanning reflectance spectroscopy as a novel non-destructive technique to rapidly acquire high-resolution quantitative paleoclimate information from minerogenic lake sediments.     

基于陆面模式NCAR/CLM3.5的东北区域生长季地表干湿状况时空分布特征模拟研究

利用东北地区地面102站56 a(1951~2006年)逐日气象观测资料,驱动NCAR陆面模式CLM 3.5,模拟东北地区生长季地表水分盈余量(Surface Water Surplus,SWS),探讨和分析了东北地区生长季1951~2006年地表干湿状况的时空变化规律。结果表明:1971~2000年平均东北地区生长季SWS反映的地表干湿状况具有较大的地域差异,全区SWS为100~800 mm;中、西部为SWS低值区,属半干旱、半湿润区;东、南、北部为相对高值区,属湿润、半湿润区。生长季地表干湿状况存在显著的年际、年代际变化;56 a来,东北地区生长季SWS呈线性减少趋势,即地表变干,SWS空间分布的年代际变化,同样表现为变干趋势,尤其2000~2006年是地表变干最为显著的时期,表明在全球变暖背景下东北地区地表干旱化趋势增强。分析表明地表干湿状况是下垫面与气候变化共同作用的结果,研究地表干湿状况需要综合考虑水分收支项。     

Self-affinity dimensions of topography and its implications in morphotectonics: an example from Taiwan

This paper discusses the self-affinity dimensions of landscape surfaces at a short-range scale and the link to morphotectonic features of the young orogenic belts of Taiwan. The variogram method is adopted to estimate such parameters as the fractal dimension (D), the ordinate-intercept (γ) and the range (R) from data subsets of the digital elevation model (DEM) in a moving-window operation. The fractal morphology expressed by D and γ is found to be useful in defining geomorphic provinces that are related to tectonic features. The mountainous terrain is characterized by high gamma values and low fractal dimensions in contrast to the coastal plains where low gamma values and high fractal dimensions are found. A zone, defined by the fractal parameters (2.4<D<2.6 and 0<γ<2.4), is found to coincide with the most tectonically active zone of Taiwan. Active faults often occur at the boundary between landscapes with contrasting fractal patterns. In the flat lowlands along the western coast, the fractal morphology displays a west-facing amphitheatric pattern, which may be related to the indentation of the pre-Miocene Peikang Basement High. The fractal morphology may reflect some subtle changes in surface textures of a landscape sculpted by surface processes, which in turn are influenced by tectonic activities. The surface roughening and diffusive smoothing may concur to shape the landscape surface at the short ranges we discuss in this study.     

Population trends in the Slavonian grebe <Emphasis Type="Italic">Podiceps auritus</Emphasis> (L.) and Chironomidae (Diptera) at a Scottish loch

Loch Ruthven holds the largest British population of the rare water-bird Podiceps auritus, the Slavonian or horned grebe. The breeding success of this bird has fluctuated annually since records began in 1970. To investigate whether these trends are linked to the abundance of chironomid midges, which are an important food-source for the grebe chicks, we analysed a sediment core from the lake, which was sliced at 2.5-mm intervals and provided near-annual sampling resolution. We also analysed diatoms and algal pigments in the lake sediments and inferred changes in total phosphorus from the diatom assemblage to determine whether changes in lake productivity have influenced the abundance of chironomids. Trends in grebe productivity, chironomid abundance and algal assemblages were compared against climate data to determine whether climate, specifically, the North Atlantic Oscillation, was the ultimate driver of the trends we recorded. Our results show that grebe breeding success is positively correlated with chironomid abundance and chironomid abundance is positively correlated with diatom-inferred total phosphorus. Lake productivity and chironomid abundance began to rise early in the twentieth century and continued to rise on a steeper trajectory from the mid-twentieth century to the present. Since the mid-1960s, chironomid abundance began to fluctuate erratically and since 1970 was in phase with grebe productivity, with the grebe trends most plausibly lagging by 1 year. These trends appear to correlate with inter-annual fluctuations in diatom-inferred total phosphorus. No correlation was found between grebe productivity or chironomid abundance and climate variables, suggesting that the size of the chironomid population and breeding success of Podiceps auritus at Loch Ruthven is resource-linked.     

INTERANNUAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE REGIONALIZED SURFACE CLIMATE OF THE UNITED STATES AND RELATIONSHIPS TO GENERALIZED FLOW PARAMETERS

This analysis attempts to discern primary causes of interannual and interdecadal climate variations for precipitation and temperature regions of the conterminous United States. Varimax rotated principal components analysis of annual climate division data is used in the derivation of nine precipitation and five temperature regions. Each region's time series is examined for underlying linear trends, representing long-term climate change, and tests for variance changes, to determine regional climate variability shifts. The first six precipitation components, representing the entire eastern half of the country and the Northwest, displayed significant temporal increases. Of these, four displayed significant increases in interannual variability through time. For temperature, only the Southwestern region showed a significant change (increase) through time. However, significant reductions in temperature variability were confirmed for three regions. To determine the causes of the derived climate shifts, correlation analysis was performed with various atmospheric teleconnection indices. Precipitation trends are most strongly associated with variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the interannual time scale while interdecadal variations are associated more with variations in the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection. Both interannual and interdecadal variations of regional temperature are most strongly related to the PNA, except for the Southwest, which showed a significant correlation to the SOI. This suggests that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are the source for much of the precipitation change evident in the eastern and Northwestern United States and temperature change in the Southwest. [Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, El Niño, Southern Oscillation, United States climate.]     

Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze River Basin, 1961–2000

The suspected impact of climate warming on precipitation distribution is examined in the Yangtze River Basin. Daily precipitation data for 147 meteorological stations from 1961–2000 and monthly discharge data for three stations in the basin have been analyzed for temporal and spatial trends. The methods used include the Mann–Kendall test and simple regression analysis. The results show (1) a significant positive trend in summer precipitation at many stations especially for June and July, with the summer precipitation maxima in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in the 1990s; (2) a positive trend in rainstorm frequency that is the main contributor to increased summer precipitation in the basin; and (3) a significant positive trend in flood discharges in the middle and lower basin related to the spatial patterns and temporal trends of both precipitation and individual rainstorms in the last 40 years. The rainstorms have aggravated floods in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin in recent decades. The observed trends in precipitation and rainstorms are possibly caused by variations of atmospheric circulation (weakened summer monsoon) under climate warming.