基于时间相依地震活动性模型的地震时间序列模拟

模拟地震时间序列在地震危险性分析和地震灾害预测等领域中具有重要作用,地震活动性模型是模拟地震序列的重要理论基础.本文以时间相依地震活动性模型为理论模型,系统梳理了现有时间相依地震活动性模型理论与方法,研究了断层(震源)上最新地震发生时间已知、未知以及地震历史开放间隔已知三种情况下地震发生概率的计算方法,分析了地震复发间隔的变异系数对时间相依地震发生概率的影响.研究了基于布朗模型的特征地震准周期发生的物理原理,建立了时间相依地震时间序列的模拟方法.研究结果表明,在地震离逝时间较长的情况下,基于时间相依地震活动性模型计算的地震发生概率要显著大于泊松模型;在地震历史开放时间已知情况下,计算的地震发生概率要高于地震离逝时间未知的情况.地震复发间隔的变异系数越小,模拟的地震时间序列越呈现周期性.本文研究结果可提高长期地震概率预测水平,模拟的具有时间相依特征的地震时间序列可用于地震预测、概率地震危险性分析以及地震灾害预测等领域.     

稀疏井网地震分辨率以下复合砂体构型地震检测方法及应用

地震沉积学应用于油藏开发地质研究是其在新领域的发展,是以解释井间单成因砂体特征为目的,面向油藏开发的小尺度研究.以往的地震沉积学解释方法,注重于对沉积构型单元的沉积相进行刻画,少有直接对地震垂向分辨率(λ/4)以下的不连续性(构型边界)进行预测.因此,采用地震正演模拟方法讨论了沉积构型单元的地震可识别尺度,通过地质模式约束来降低解释多解性,利用神经网络方法进行了构型单元的地震构型相预测,并利用地震属性进行了次级构型单元的边界预测.研究表明：相比于传统相干体方法,利用地震沉积学方法预测地震垂向分辨率以下沉积单元内部构型的边界具有更高的准确度,结合地震构型相预测结果可实现薄层沉积单元的内部结构识别.     

巨大地震活动特征及其动力学机制探讨

在天然地震研究中,巨大地震(本文指8级以上地震)占有特别重要的位置,这首先是因为巨大地震具有极大的破坏性,是地震预测的首要对象。2004年以来全球特大地震活动频繁,地震及其次生灾害造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此,开展全球地震活动,特别是巨大地震的预测研究已成为全球地球科学领域关注的焦点。从科学意义上看,巨大地震的孕育、发生需要特殊的构造环境和条件,包括地质构造环     

地震活动泊松模型和应力释放模型在地震预测和地震危险性评估中的一些应用研

地震活动性是指地震发生在时间、空间和强度上的规律性。对地震活动研究的主要目的是对其未来的活动进行预测。地震活动随时间分布的特征是否表现为周期性、随机性、群集性 (cluster)等是地震学家十分感兴趣的研究课题 ,它对于理解地震活动物理过程和建立地震预测的研究思路具有重要的影响。对地震活动在时间域中的预测可分为中长期预测和中短期预测。本论文是针对地震活动中长期预测常采用的稳态泊松模型做了一些研究工作 ,发展了一些新的计算方法 ,具体分以下两部分。1　地震活动长期特征 (或平均特征 )的预测方法及地震危险性评估的新方…     

以菏泽地震为例探讨地震学综合预测方法

在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。 首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区; 然后利用中、 强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区; 最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。 在地震三要素预测中, 发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势, 并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、 印证, 以便得出更可靠的预测结果。 文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究, 结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。     

地震属性分析技术综述

近年来,地震属性分析技术在地层岩性解释、构造解释、储层评价、油藏特征描述以及油藏流体动态检测等方面得到了广泛应用,并且在油气勘探开发中起着越来越重要的作用.地震属性技术能提取隐藏在地震资料中的有用信息,提高对储层有利区预测的准确度.因此,对地震属性技术在储层预测中的应用的研究显得十分重要.本文就地震属性的发展历程、地震属性分类、地震属性提取和地震属性的优化及预测方法进行了归纳总结,并对地震属性技术在国内外的发展情况作了简要的介绍.     

嘉峪关地震台地电阻率资料地震预测效能检验

1 研究背景 目前,国际上"地震可预测性合作研究"正在开展不同地震预测模型与不同统计检验方法、"最佳"模型构建方面的实验研究,并取得了阶段性成果,其中蒋长胜等(2011)通过对统计检验方法中的Molchan图表( Molchan,1990)进行研究,认为利用该方法可客观和科学地进行地震预测评估,还能解决固定研究区域内地震时间预测问题,并给出相应的概率解释.     

中国地震预测预报工作机制

近几年在我国接连发生的严重震灾,使社会公众对地震预测预报的关注度明显提升。为帮助社会公众正确地了解、参与地震预测预报工作,本文依据《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》和国务院《地震预报管理条例》,对中国地震预测预报工作机制进行了解读。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常特征

利用地震活动图像演化动态跟踪、地震活动参数时间扫描及震群判定等目前较为成熟的地震预测方法,研究了2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常.结果显示8.1级地震前地震活动性异常有序性明显,地震空区、地震条带、震群活动异常突出,且呈现配套特征.研究认为地震空区图像演化对揭示特大地震的孕育场有所帮助;大范围前兆震群活动是特大地震前多点应力积累、释放的前兆反应;结合地震活动参数扫描异常综合分析,特大地震前可能做出一定的中期-短期预测.     

应力预测地震

最近,在《地震学研究通讯》的“讨论”栏目中,Silver 认为地震预测是不可能的,而 Whiteside 认为地震预测是可能的。地震预测意味着许多事情。传统的地震预测方法至少有3种。在确定性预测中,震前的动态(例如,周边岩石中应力的相互作用)可以被计算(采用任何现有的技术),所以可以在定义较好的窗口内估算未来地震的时间、地点和震级。在统计性预测中,以往的     

Variations in the loadings and riverine transport of nitrate and nitrite in Latvia

The intra-annual and long-term variations in the nitrate and nitrite concentrations and transport are considered for the years 1948–1990. The nutrient loading on the Latvian rivers is subject to considerable intra-annual variations. Weak direct relationships with the fresh water inputs were observed for nitrite, while inverse ones were characteristic for nitrate. The nitrate and nitrite concentrations have been increasing since the late 1950s followed by an increase of the year-to-year variability. Non-point sources of anthropogenic impact (fertilizers leaching from agriculture and the reclamation) increase riverine concentrations of nitrogen compounds, and in particular of nitrate from 300–500 to 1300–1500%.     

Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in the study of organochlorine contaminants in albatrosses and petrels

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in albatrosses and petrels collected off southern Brazil were compared with concentrations of organochlorine contaminants (OCs). δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values, as well as OCs concentrations, exhibited a high degree of variability among individuals and overlap among species. δ¹³C values reflected latitudinal differences among species, with lower values found in Wandering and Tristan Albatrosses and higher values found in Black-browed and Atlantic Yellow-nosed Albatrosses and White-chinned Petrels. Some relationships were found between OCs and stable isotopes, but in general a partial ‘uncoupling’ was observed between OCs concentrations and stable isotopes ratios (especially for δ¹⁵N). δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values in Procellariiformes tissues during the non-breeding season appear to be a better indicator of foraging habitats than of trophic relationships, which may partially explain the high degree of variability between concentrations of OCs and stable isotopes ratios in birds with a diversified diet and wide foraging range.     

The role of suspended sediments and phytoplankton in the partitioning and transport of silver in estuaries

Silver sorbs readily at low salinities to both phytoplankton and suspended sediments. As salinity increases, the degree of sorption decreases. Nearly 80% of silver sorbed to suspended sediments at low salinities will desorb at higher salinities, but desorption does not occur when silver is associated with phytoplankton. Thus, silver incorporation onto/into cellular material will increase the retention of silver within the estuary, reducing its rate of transport.     

Concentration and localization of hydroxylamine in the reservoirs and lakes in the territory of European Russia

Hydroxylamine concentration and localization in the Volga reservoir cascade and in the lakes of Yaroslavl province and Vladimir province were studied. It was found that, in microaerophilic zones of the most productive lakes, the rate of hydroxylamine formation is higher and its localization does not depend on the type of the limnological object (a reservoir or a lake), but is determined by the oxygen regime of the water body in question.     

太湖富营养化湖区秋季水体和沉积物中硝化微生物分布特征及控制因素

微生物参与下的氮循环是富营养化湖泊十分重要的生物地球化学循环过程.采用基于amoA功能基因和16S rRNA基因的荧光定量PCR、PCR-DGGE与高通量测序等分子生物学技术,调查秋季太湖不同水体和表层沉积物中氨氧化古菌(AOA)、氨氧化细菌(AOB)和亚硝酸盐氧化菌(NOB)群落丰度和组成,探讨影响硝化微生物分布的关键环境因子.结果表明,中度富营养化的梅梁湾湖区水体表层、中层和底层水样和表层底泥中AOA amoA基因的丰度分别低于轻度富营养化的湖心区,而不同层水样中AOB amoA基因的丰度分别高于湖心区.梅梁湾湖区和湖心区水样中AOA群落组成基本相似,2个湖区表层沉积物样品中AOA群落组成亦基本相似,水体中AOA群落组成与表层沉积物中AOA群落组成有差异,AOA群落丰度显著受硝态氮、pH和DO影响;表层沉积物中AOB群落丰度有明显差异且显著受总氮含量影响,表层沉积物中NOB群落丰度也有明显差异且显著受亚硝态氮含量影响.太湖梅梁湾湖区和湖心区水体与表层沉积物AOA群落包括Nitrosopumilium和Nitrosotalea两大属;表层沉积物AOB群落主要包括亚硝化单胞菌(Nitrosomonas)和亚硝化螺菌(Nitrosospira)两大属,NOB群落主要包括硝化刺菌(Nitrospina)和硝化螺菌(Nitrospira)两大属,其中硝化螺菌属是淡水湖泊中比较少见的亚硝酸盐氧化菌.影响太湖水体和沉积物中AOA和AOB丰度的最主要环境因子为总氮、总磷与铵态氮.研究表明典型富营养指标(总氮、总磷、铵态氮、硝态氮和硝态氮等)是影响太湖梅梁湾和湖心区水体和沉积物中AOA或AOB丰度以及硝化微生物群落丰度的重要因素.     

Differences in oxygen-18 content of throughfall and rainfall in hardwood and coniferous forests

The differences between δ¹⁸O in throughfall and open rainfall were studied for 16 selected spring and summer storms in deciduous, pine and spruce forests in central Pennsylvania, USA. Throughfall δ¹⁸O averaged 0.17, 0.32 and 0.24%_o greater than δ¹⁸O of open rainfall for all storms at the deciduous, pine and spruce sites, respectively. Throughfall ¹⁸O enrichment was greater in low intensity spring rainfall events than higher intensity growing season storms and greater in the coniferous stands than the deciduous hardwood stand. Maximum throughfall ¹⁸O enrichment of l.61%_o occurred in the spruce forest during one spring event. The differences between rainfall and throughfall ¹⁸O observed in this study for individual storm events may have important implications for isotope flow separation studies.     

Distribution and composition of suspended matter in water and snow cover in Kaliningrad Bay

Field data, collected by the authors during winter expedition studies in Kaliningrad Bay, are analyzed. Notwithstanding the presence of ice cover, considerable advective processes are shown to be taking place in the bay. Seawater enters the bay, spreading in the bottom horizon all over the water area. Suspended sediment concentration in under-ice period is on the average three times less than that in the ice-free period. The space and time variations of its quantitative and qualitative composition under ice are mostly governed by two factors—the effect of the sea and river runoff. The values of vertical fluxed of eolian material to the bay surface in winter vary from 0.5 to 2.9 with the average of 1.7 mg m^–2 day^–1.     

Effect of Moon phases in riometer absorption and in the ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters

Variations in the frequency of occurrence of riometer absorption, minimum frequency of reflection of the ionospheric F layer, minimum height, and height of maximum electron density of the ionospheric F layer near the solar minimum have been studied. Application of the superposed epoch technique has detected the Moon phase effect on these ionospheric parameters. This effect was: three events per day in the occurrence of riometer absorption, 0.056 MHz in the minimum frequency of reflection of the F layer, and 2.6 and 6.7 km, in the change of the minimum height of reflection and height of reflection from the region with maximum electron density of the ionospheric F layer, respectively. The lunar tide action changes the ionospheric conductivity and, thus, influences the current systems of the magnetosphere. Through changes of magnetospheric currents, the Moon phase effect is exhibited in the Ap and Dst indices and is 4.3 and 4.25 nT, respectively.     

Toxicity and Accumulation of Al in the Acid Water of Small Lakes and Watercourses in Finnish Lapland

On the basis of a study of the hydrochemical regime and the status of benthic acidophobic species in the acidified watercourses and small lakes of Finnish Lapland, humic compounds are demonstrated to be the principal factors controlling both pH and the proportions of different forms of Al in water. It is found that the concentration of labile aluminum, i.e., that form of aluminum which is most toxic for aquatic organisms, increases only in acid water (pH 4.8–6.5) with a low and extremely low humic content of water (with a color of 5–60 mg Pt/l). Humic and other organic substances that fix Al in an inert or another stable form are demonstrated to be able to decrease the toxic properties of aluminum for acidophobic species and the capacity of aluminum to be accumulated in the bodies of aquatic organisms. Aluminum is shown to have no tendency to an increased rate of accumulation in the bodies of aquatic organisms that form the highest trophic level of secondary predators.