Impact of hazard‐consistent ground motion duration in structural collapse risk assessment

This study evaluates the effect of considering ground motion duration when selecting hazard‐consistent ground motions for structural collapse risk assessment. A procedure to compute source‐specific probability distributions of the durations of ground motions anticipated at a site, based on the generalized conditional intensity measure framework, is developed. Targets are computed for three sites in Western USA, located in distinct tectonic settings: Seattle, Eugene, and San Francisco. The effect of considering duration when estimating the collapse risk of a ductile reinforced concrete moment frame building, designed for a site in Seattle, is quantified by conducting multiple stripe analyses using groups of ground motions selected using different procedures. The mean annual frequency of collapse (λ_collapse) in Seattle is found to be underestimated by 29% when using typical‐duration ground motions from the PEER NGA‐West2 database. The effect of duration is even more important in sites like Eugene (λ_collapse underestimated by 59%), where the seismic hazard is dominated by large magnitude interface earthquakes, and less important in sites like San Francisco (λ_collapse underestimated by 7%), where the seismic hazard is dominated by crustal earthquakes. Ground motion selection procedures that employ causal parameters like magnitude, distance, and Vs₃₀ as surrogates for ground motion duration are also evaluated. These procedures are found to produce poor fits to the duration and response spectrum targets because of the limited number of records that satisfy typical constraints imposed on the ranges of the causal parameters. As a consequence, ground motions selected based on causal parameters are found to overestimate λ_collapse by 53%. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic vulnerability of offshore wind turbines to pulse and non-pulse records

The increasing number of wind turbines in active tectonic regions has attracted scientific interest to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of offshore wind turbines (OWTs). This study aims at assessing the deformation and collapse susceptibility of 2MW and 5MW OWTs subjected to shallow-crustal pulse-like ground motions, which has not been particularly addressed to date. A cloud-based fragility assessment is performed to quantify the seismic response for a given intensity measure and to assess the failure probabilities for pulse-like and non-pulse-like ground motions. The first-mode spectral acceleration S_a(T₁) is found to be an efficient response predictor for OWTs, exhibiting prominent higher-mode behavior, at the serviceability and ultimate conditions. Regardless of earthquake type, it is shown that records with strong vertical components may induce nonlinearity in the supporting tower, leading to potential failure by buckling in three different patterns: (i) at tower base near platform level, (ii) close to tower top, and (iii) between the upper half of the main tower and its top. Type and extent of the damage are related to the coupled excitation of vertical and lateral higher modes, for which tower top acceleration response spectra S_a,i(Top) is an effective identifier. It is also observed that tower's slenderness ratio (l/d), the diameter-to-thickness ratio (d/t), and the rotor-nacelle-assembly mass (m_RNA) are precursors for evaluating the damage mode and vulnerability of OWTs under both pulse-like and non-pulse-like ground motion records.     

Residual drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions

This paper presents the main results of the evaluation of residual inter‐story drift demands in typical moment‐resisting steel buildings designed accordingly to the Mexican design practice when subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions. Analytical 2D‐framed models representative of the study‐case buildings were subjected to a set of 30 narrow‐band earthquake ground motions recorded on stations placed in soft‐soil sites of Mexico City, where most significant structural damage was found in buildings as a consequence of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, and scaled to reach several levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analyses. Thus, results were statistically processed to obtain hazard curves of peak (maximum) and residual drift demands for each frame model. It is shown that the study‐case frames might exhibit maximum residual inter‐story drift demands in excess of 0.5%, which is perceptible for building's occupants and could cause human discomfort, for a mean annual rate of exceedance associated to peak inter‐story drift demands of about 3%, which is the limiting drift to avoid collapse prescribed in the 2004 Mexico City Seismic Design Provisions. The influence of a member's post‐yield stiffness ratio and material overstrength in the evaluation of maximum residual inter‐story drift demands is also discussed. Finally, this study introduces response transformation factors, T_p, that allow establishing residual drift limits compatible with the same mean annual rate of exceedance of peak inter‐story drift limits for future seismic design/evaluation criteria that take into account both drift demands for assessing a building's seismic performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of seismic collapse risk of steel moment frame mid-rise structures by meta-heuristic algorithms

Different performance levels may be obtained for sideway collapse evaluation of steel moment frames depending on the evaluation procedure used to handle uncertainties. In this article, the process of representing modelling uncertainties, record to record (RTR) variations and cognitive uncertainties for moment resisting steel frames of various heights is discussed in detail. RTR uncertainty is used by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), modelling uncertainties are considered through backbone curves and hysteresis loops of component, and cognitive uncertainty is presented in three levels of material quality. IDA is used to evaluate RTR uncertainty based on strong ground motion records selected by the k-means algorithm, which is favoured over Monte Carlo selection due to its time saving appeal. Analytical equations of the Response Surface Method are obtained through IDA results by the Cuckoo algorithm, which predicts the mean and standard deviation of the collapse fragility curve. The Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model is used to represent material quality based on the response surface coefficients. Finally, collapse fragility curves with the various sources of uncertainties mentioned are derived through a large number of material quality values and meta variables inferred by the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy model based on response surface method coefficients. It is concluded that a better risk management strategy in countries where material quality control is weak, is to account for cognitive uncertainties in fragility curves and the mean annual frequency.     

Nonlocal period parameters of frequency content characterization for near-fault ground motions

This paper focuses on the frequency property analysis of near-fault ground motions with and without distinct pulses, separately from the Chi-Chi and Northridge earthquakes. Ten scalar period parameters of ground motions, especially several nonlocal period parameters, are considered. Two new nonlocal parameters, namely the mean period of Hilbert marginal spectrum (T_mh) and the improved characteristic period (T_gi), are suggested. Moreover, comprehensive comparison and analysis indicate that T_mh, T_gi and T_avg (average spectral period) can distinguish the low-frequency components of near-fault ground motions; T_m (mean period of Fourier amplitude spectrum) and T_o (smoothed spectral predominant period) represent the moderate- and high-frequency components, respectively. The variance coefficient of predominant instantaneous frequency of Hilbert spectrum (H_cov) can be regarded as an alternative index to measure the non-stationary degree of near-fault ground motions. Finally, the velocity pulses and earthquake magnitude remarkably affect the frequency parameters of near-fault ground motions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating intensity bounds for assessing the seismic safety of structures: Does it matter?

The closed‐form solution for assessing the proportion of the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance as a function of integration limits is introduced, in order to study whether or not the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance is overestimated if the lower and(or) upper integration limit of the risk equation are(is) not selected in a physically consistent manner. Simple formulas for assessing the threshold value of the lower and upper integration limits are also derived. These formulas can be used to quickly assess the significant range of ground motion intensity that affects the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance. It is shown that the threshold values of the integration limits depend on the median intensity causing a limit‐state, the corresponding dispersion and the slope of the hazard curve in the log domain. For several reinforced concrete buildings located in a region with moderate seismicity, it is demonstrated that the mean annual frequency of collapse can be significantly overestimated when assessed by integrating the risk equation over the entire range of ground motion intensity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectral shape,epsilon and record selection

Selection of earthquake ground motions is considered with the goal of accurately estimating the response of a structure at a specified ground motion intensity, as measured by spectral acceleration at the first‐mode period of the structure, Sa(T₁). Consideration is given to the magnitude, distance and epsilon (ε) values of ground motions. First, it is seen that selecting records based on their ε values is more effective than selecting records based on magnitude and distance. Second, a method is discussed for finding the conditional response spectrum of a ground motion, given a level of Sa(T₁) and its associated mean (disaggregation‐based) causal magnitude, distance and ε value. Records can then be selected to match the mean of this target spectrum, and the same benefits are achieved as when records are selected based on ε. This mean target spectrum differs from a Uniform Hazard Spectrum, and it is argued that this new spectrum is a more appropriate target for record selection. When properly selecting records based on either spectral shape or ε, the reductions in bias and variance of resulting structural response estimates are comparable to the reductions achieved by using a vector‐valued measure of earthquake intensity. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.     

Effect of the spectral shape of ground motion records on the collapse fragility assessment of degrading SDOF systems

The main purpose of this paper is to study the collapse capacity of single degree of freedom(SDOF) systems and to produce fragility curves as well as collapse capacity spectra while considering a broad range of structural parameters, including system degradation, the P-Δ effect, ductility capacity and the post-capping stiffness ratio. The modified IbarraKrawinkler deterioration model was used to consider hysteretic behavior. A comprehensive study was conducted to extract the collapse capacity spectrum of SDOF systems with a wide range of periods, varying from 0.05 to 4 s, to cover short, intermediate and long periods. Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was performed for SDOF systems to identify the condition in which the collapse capacity of the system is determined. The IDAs were performed using different sets of seismic ground motions. The ground motion records were categorized into different sets based on three spectral shape parameters, including the epsilon, Sa Ratio and N_p. The collapse fragility curves of SDOF systems with different periods were extracted to illustrate the collapse capacity at different probability levels. The results show that structural degradation and ductility as well as the spectral shape parameters significantly affect the collapse capacity of SDOF systems. On the other hand, the post-capping stiffness ratio and small levels of the P-Δ effect do not remarkably change collapse capacity. Also, the collapse capacity of SDOF systems is more sensitive to the records categorized based on Sa Ratio and N_p than those classified based on epsilon.     

Convex model-based calculation of robust seismic fragility curves of isolated continuous girder bridge

The convex model approach is applied to derive the robust seismic fragility curves of a five-span isolated continuous girder bridge with lead rubber bearings (LRB) in China. The uncertainty of structure parameters (the yield force and the post-yield stiffness of LRB, the yield strength of steel bars, etc.) are considered in the convex model, and the uncertainty of earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by selecting 40 earthquake excitations of peak ground acceleration magnitudes ranging from 0.125 to 1.126 g. A 3-D finite element model is employed using the software package OpenSees by considering the nonlinearity in the bridge piers and the isolation bearings. Section ductility of piers and shearing strain isolation bearings are treated as damage indices. The cloud method and convex model approach are used to construct the seismic fragility curves of the bridge components (LRB and bridge piers) and the bridge system, respectively. The numerical results indicate that seismic fragility of the bridge system and bridge components will be underestimated without considering the uncertainty of structural parameters. Therefore, the failure probability P _f,max had better be served as the seismic fragility, especially, the fragility of the bridge system is largely dictated by the fragility of LRB. Finally, the probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of the bridge is carried out according to the structural seismic risk estimate method.     

Fractal characterization and frequency properties of near-fault ground motions

This study explores the irregularity and complexity of strong earthquake ground motions from the perspective of fractal geometry, and constructs a relation with the frequency content of the ground motions. The box-counting fractal dimensions and five representative period parameters of near-fault ground motions from the Chi-Chi and Northridge earthquakes are calculated and compared. Numerical results indicate that the acceleration and velocity time histories of ground motions present the statistical fractal property, and the dominant pulses of near-fault ground motions have a significant influence on their box dimensions and periods. Further, the average box dimension of near-fault impulsive ground motions is smaller, and their irregular degree of wave forms is lower. Moreover, the box dimensions of ground motions reflect their frequency properties to a large extent, and can be regarded as an alternative indicator to represent their frequency content. Finally, the box dimension D of the acceleration histories shows a considerably negative correlation with the mean period T. Meanwhile, the box dimension of the velocity histories Dye is negatively correlated with the characteristic period T and improved characteristic period Tgi.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Multifractal characteristic analysis of near-fault earthquake ground motions

This study aims to reveal the multi-scaling behavior and quantify the irregularity of near-fault earthquake ground motions from a new perspective of multifractal theory. Based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, the multifractal characteristic parameters of acceleration time series for typical near-fault ground motions are calculated, and their correlations with two period parameters (i.e., mean period T_m and characteristic period T_c) and box-counting fractal dimensions are analyzed. Numerical results of strong nonlinear dependence of generalized Hurst exponents h(q) upon the fluctuation orders q indicate that near-fault ground motions present the multifractal properties and long-range correlation obviously. Furthermore, the scaling exponent h(2) of near-fault records has a strong correlation with their periods T_m and T_c, and strongly negative correlation with their box dimension. Moreover, h(2) can be regarded as a measure of frequency content and irregularity degree of strong earthquake ground motions. Finally, it is pointed out that the long-range correlation of small and large fluctuation is the major source of multifractality of near-fault ground motions.     

Prediction of long-period ground motions from huge subduction earthquakes in Osaka,Japan

There is a high possibility of reoccurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes along the Nankai Trough in Japan. It is very important to predict the long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.1 and 8.4, respectively, to mitigate their disastrous effects. In this study, long-period (>2.5 s) ground motions were predicted using an earthquake scenario proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Japan. The calculations were performed using a fourth-order finite difference method with a variable spacing staggered-grid in the frequency range 0.05–0.4 Hz. The attenuation characteristics (Q) in the finite difference simulations were assumed to be proportional to frequency (f) and S-wave velocity (V _s) represented by Q = f · V _s / 2. Such optimum attenuation characteristic for the sedimentary layers in the Osaka basin was obtained empirically by comparing the observed motions during the actual M5.5 event with the modeling results. We used the velocity structure model of the Osaka basin consisting of three sedimentary layers on bedrock. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes depend significantly on the complex thickness distribution of the sediments inside the basin. The duration of the predicted long-period ground motions in the city of Osaka is more than 4 min, and the largest peak ground velocities (PGVs) exceed 80 cm/s. The predominant period is 5 to 6 s. These preliminary results indicate the possibility of earthquake damage because of future subduction earthquakes in large-scale constructions such as tall buildings, long-span bridges, and oil storage tanks in the Osaka area.     

基于性能的基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构的倒塌可靠度分析

利用基于性能的结构可靠度分析方法,对基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构进行分析研究。选取20条实际地震动记录,以0.2g为步长对结构地震动参数PGA进行调幅后,建立了140个结构-地震动样本空间。选取上部结构的最大层间位移角、隔震层位移为量化指标,对每一个样本进行动力非线性时程分析后,将结构响应进行统计得到结构在各地震动强度下超越极限破坏状态的概率,将其绘制成基础隔震钢筋混凝土框剪结构的易损性曲线并利用整体可靠度方法分析结构发生倒塌的可靠度指标。该方法直观地反映了结构发生倒塌的概率,为结构的地震损失评估提供依据。     

Probability of actuating a seismic shutoff device

Automatic seismic shutoff devices are used to reduce the risk to gas and liquid distribution systems from earthquakes. In the USA, the gas shutoff devices are tested and certified according to the American Society of Civil Engineers' Standard ASCE 25. During tests, devices are shaken by simple harmonic (sinusoidal) motions of different frequencies and checked for actuation. Because earthquake motions are not sinusoidal, the amplitude of earthquake motions that will actuate these devices is not clearly understood. This paper determines the probability of actuating devices by earthquake motions of different amplitudes. The probability of actuation increases with increase in the resultant peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). The probability of actuation is 50% for PGA = 0.23g and 90% for PGA = 0.31g, where g = 9.81 m/s² = acceleration due to gravity. On a ‘stiff soil’ site in San Francisco, CA, the mean recurrence interval of actuation is 51 years. On a similar site in Boston, MA, the mean recurrence interval of actuation is 3000 years. ASCE 25 compliant devices are actuated by high frequencies in ground motions. There is greater uncertainty in the actuation of these devices by ground motions that are damaging to very flexible systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A vector‐valued ground motion intensity measure consisting of spectral acceleration and epsilon

The ‘strength’ of an earthquake ground motion is often quantified by an Intensity Measure (IM), such as peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration at a given period. This IM is used to predict the response of a structure. In this paper an intensity measure consisting of two parameters, spectral acceleration and epsilon, is considered. The IM is termed a vector‐valued IM, as opposed to the single parameter, or scalar, IMs that are traditionally used. Epsilon (defined as a measure of the difference between the spectral acceleration of a record and the mean of a ground motion prediction equation at the given period) is found to have significant ability to predict structural response. It is shown that epsilon is an indicator of spectral shape, explaining why it is related to structural response. By incorporating this vector‐valued IM with a vector‐valued ground motion hazard, we can predict the mean annual frequency of exceeding a given value of maximum interstory drift ratio, or other such response measure. It is shown that neglecting the effect of epsilon when computing this drift hazard curve leads to conservative estimates of the response of the structure. These observations should perhaps affect record selection in the future. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川地震远震区黄土场地地震反应特征分析

在实际场地钻孔资料的基础上,选取和构造45个有代表性的典型场地剖面,利用一维等效线性化波动方法,计算各个场地在三种不同强度地震动输入下的地表加速度反应。结果表明:(1)在远场地震动作用下,黄土场地PGA较大,反应谱平台范围较宽,集中在0.2~0.6s;(2)随着黄土覆盖厚度的增加,PGA减小,但对于自振周期大于一定范围的结构物震害加重;(3)对于无地形影响的厚层黄土地区,当黄土厚度在20~100 m时,随厚度的增加,反应谱下降段谱值增大1.1~1.4倍,特征周期放大1.1~1.25倍。     

Evaluation of the seismic response of stone pagodas using centrifuge model tests

This study attempts to propose dynamic centrifuge model tests as a method of seismic risk assessment in order to discover how stone architectural heritages with masonry structures have endured seismic load, and whether there is any possibility of future earthquake damage. Dynamic centrifuge tests have been conducted for one fifteenth scale models of Seok-ga-tap and the five-storey stone pagoda of Jeongnimsa temple site, which are Korean representative stone pagodas. In order to make input motions of the earthquake simulator, site investigation and site-specific response analysis have been performed. The models of two stone pagodas, which have the same number of pieces with the real structures, have been produced and the dynamic centrifuge tests have been conducted for the model pagodas. Accelerometers were attached at different heights of the pagoda. The measured acceleration records and frequency responses were analysed during dynamic centrifuge test. Two real earthquake records, Hachinohe and Ofunato earthquakes and a sweeping signal with ranged frequency were utilised for input motions of dynamic centrifuge tests to evaluate the behaviour of the stone pagodas. For Seok-ga-tap models, it was observed that acceleration tends to be amplified with height. The third floor body shows at most 2.5 amplification of acceleration in comparison to the surface ground. The amplification was at a frequency of 3.83 Hz and it was considered as the natural frequency of the pagoda. For the five-storey stone pagoda, the seismic wave energy significantly reduced while it passed the first body floor, and then the peak acceleration was gradually amplified upwards. It was found that the pagodas did not collapse when the peak acceleration of ground surface was raised to 0.4 g. Given that the maximum design seismic acceleration specified in Korean seismic design guide is 0.22 g and the amplification ratio of peak acceleration in the supporting ground of the pagodas ranges from 1.45 to 1.74, it can be shown that the two pagodas are stable against 2400-year return period earthquake level, and have excellent seismic performance.     

Prediction of ground motion in the Osaka sedimentary basin associated with the hypothetical Nankai earthquake

We studied the long-period ground motions in the Osaka sedimentary basin, Japan, which contains a 1- to 3-km thickness of sediments and is the site of many buildings or construction structures with long-natural period. We simulated the broadband ground motions likely to be produced by the hypothetical Nankai earthquake: the earthquake expected to give rise to the most severe long-period ground motion within the basin. For the simulation, we constructed multiscale heterogeneous source models based on the Central Disaster Management Council of Japan (CDMC) source model and adopted a hybrid computation method in which long-period motion and short-period motion are computed using a 3-D finite difference method and the stochastic Green’s function method, respectively. In computing long-period motions, we used a 3-D structure model of the crust and the Osaka sedimentary basin. The ground motions are estimated to have peak velocities of 50–90 cm/s, prolonged durations exceeding 300 s, and long predominant periods of 5–10 s in the area with great thickness of sediments. The predominant periods are in agreement with an approximate evaluation by 4 H/V _s where H and V _s are the thickness of the sediment and the average S wave velocity, respectively.