Error estimation of closed‐form solution for annual rate of structural collapse

With the increasing emphasis of performance‐based earthquake engineering in the engineering community, several investigations have been presented outlining simplified approaches suitable for performance‐based seismic design (PBSD). Central to most of these PBSD approaches is the use of closed‐form analytical solutions to the probabilistic integral equations representing the rate of exceedance of key performance measures. Situations where such closed‐form solutions are not appropriate primarily relate to the problem of extrapolation outside of the region in which parameters of the closed‐form solution are fit. This study presents a critical review of the closed‐form solution for the annual rate of structural collapse. The closed‐form solution requires the assumptions of lognormality of the collapse fragility and power model form of the ground motion hazard, of which the latter is more significant regarding the error of the closed‐form solution. Via a parametric study, the key variables contributing to the error between the closed‐form solution and solution via numerical integration are illustrated. As these key variables cannot be easily measured, it casts doubt on the use of such closed‐form solutions in future PBSD, especially considering the simple and efficient nature of using direct numerical integration to obtain the solution. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incremental dynamic analysis for estimating seismic performance sensitivity and uncertainty

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is presented as a powerful tool to evaluate the variability in the seismic demand and capacity of non‐deterministic structural models, building upon existing methodologies of Monte Carlo simulation and approximate moment‐estimation. A nine‐story steel moment‐resisting frame is used as a testbed, employing parameterized moment‐rotation relationships with non‐deterministic quadrilinear backbones for the beam plastic‐hinges. The uncertain properties of the backbones include the yield moment, the post‐yield hardening ratio, the end‐of‐hardening rotation, the slope of the descending branch, the residual moment capacity and the ultimate rotation reached. IDA is employed to accurately assess the seismic performance of the model for any combination of the parameters by performing multiple nonlinear timehistory analyses for a suite of ground motion records. Sensitivity analyses on both the IDA and the static pushover level reveal the yield moment and the two rotational‐ductility parameters to be the most influential for the frame behavior. To propagate the parametric uncertainty to the actual seismic performance we employ (a) Monte Carlo simulation with latin hypercube sampling, (b) point‐estimate and (c) first‐order second‐moment techniques, thus offering competing methods that represent different compromises between speed and accuracy. The final results provide firm ground for challenging current assumptions in seismic guidelines on using a median‐parameter model to estimate the median seismic performance and employing the well‐known square‐root‐sum‐of‐squares rule to combine aleatory randomness and epistemic uncertainty. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aftershock collapse vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures

In a seismically active region, structures may be subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for repair or retrofit between the events. This study quantifies the aftershock vulnerability of four modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings in California by conducting incremental dynamic analysis of nonlinear MDOF analytical models. Based on the nonlinear dynamic analysis results, collapse and damage fragility curves are generated for intact and damaged buildings. If the building is not severely damaged in the mainshock, its collapse capacity is unaffected in the aftershock. However, if the building is extensively damaged in the mainshock, there is a significant reduction in its collapse capacity in the aftershock. For example, if an RC frame experiences 4% or more interstory drift in the mainshock, the median capacity to resist aftershock shaking is reduced by about 40%. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of different measures of physical damage observed in the mainshock‐damaged buildings for predicting the reduction in collapse capacity of the damaged building in subsequent aftershocks. These physical damage indicators for the building are chosen such that they quantify the qualitative red tagging (unsafe for occupation) criteria employed in post‐earthquake evaluation of RC frames. The results indicated that damage indicators related to the drift experienced by the damaged building best predicted the reduced aftershock collapse capacities for these ductile structures. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于单地震动记录IDA方法的结构倒塌分析

增量动力分析(Incremental Dynamic Analysis, IDA)作为静力Pushover分析的动力拓展,可以全面、准确地分析结构的性能变化,尤其可以很好地分析结构倒塌这一动力失稳问题.本文基于单地震动记录的IDA方法,提出了"折半取中"原则,以确定结构倒塌极限状态点.以一榀五层三跨钢筋混凝土框架结构为例,分别考虑钢筋强化模型、理想弹塑性模型和软化模型,对其进行倒塌分析.结果表明:钢筋的屈服后强化特性对结构抗倒塌能力具有显著的影响.     

Risk‐based seismic design for collapse safety

Risk‐based seismic design, as introduced in this paper, involves the use of different types of analysis in order to satisfy a risk‐based performance objective with a reasonable utilization rate and sufficient reliability. Differentiation of the reliability of design can be achieved by defining different design algorithms depending on the importance of a structure. In general, the proposed design is iterative, where the adjustment of a structure during iterations is the most challenging task. Rather than using automated design algorithms, an attempt has been made to introduce three simple guidelines for adjusting reinforced concrete frames in order to increase their strength and deformation capacity. It is shown that an engineer can design a reinforced concrete frame in a few iterations, for example, by adjusting the structure on the basis of pushover analysis and checking the final design by means of nonlinear dynamic analysis. A possible variant of the risk‐based design algorithm for the collapse safety of reinforced concrete frame buildings is proposed, and its application is demonstrated by means of an example of an eight‐storey reinforced concrete building. Four iterations were required in order to achieve the risk‐based performance objective with a reasonable utilization rate. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Computational and rapid expected annual loss estimation methodologies for structures

Expected annual loss (EAL), which can be expressed in dollars, is an effective way of communicating the seismic vulnerability of constructed facilities to owners and insurers. A simplified method for estimating EAL without conducting time‐consuming non‐linear dynamic analyses is presented. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters resulting from a pushover analysis and a modified capacity‐spectrum method are combined with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to arrive at a probabilistic demand model. Damage measures are established to determine thresholds for damage states from which loss ratios can be defined. Financial implications due to damage can then be quantified in the form of EAL by integrating total losses for all likely earthquake scenarios. This rapid loss estimation method is verified through the computationally intensive incremental dynamic analysis, with the results processed using a distribution‐free methodology. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the seismic vulnerability of two highway bridge piers is compared; one bridge is traditionally designed for ductility while the other is based on an emerging damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy. The DAD pier is found to have a clear advantage over the conventional pier; the EAL of the DAD pier is less than 20% of its ductile counterpart. This is shown to be primarily due to its inherent damage‐free behaviour for small to medium earthquake intensities, whose contribution to EAL is significantly more than that of very rare events. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate incremental dynamic analysis using the modal pushover analysis procedure

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)—a procedure developed for accurate estimation of seismic demand and capacity of structures—requires non‐linear response history analysis of the structure for an ensemble of ground motions, each scaled to many intensity levels, selected to cover the entire range of structural response—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability. Recognizing that IDA of practical structures is computationally extremely demanding, an approximate procedure based on the modal pushover analysis procedure is developed. Presented are the IDA curves and limit state capacities for the SAC‐Los Angeles 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐storey buildings computed by the exact and approximate procedures for an ensemble of 20 ground motions. These results demonstrate that the MPA‐based approximate procedure reduces the computational effort by a factor of 30 (for the 9‐storey building), at the same time providing results to a useful degree of accuracy over the entire range of responses—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability—provided a proper hysteretic model is selected for modal SDF systems. The accuracy of the approximate procedure does not deteriorate for 9‐ and 20‐storey buildings, although their dynamics is more complex, involving several ‘modes’ of vibration. For all three buildings, the accuracy of the MPA‐based approximate procedure is also satisfactory for estimating the structural capacities for the limit states of immediate occupancy, collapse prevention, and global dynamic instability. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Collapse risk of controlled rocking steel braced frames with different post‐tensioning and energy dissipation designs

Controlled rocking steel braced frames (CRSBFs) are low‐damage self‐centring lateral force resisting systems. Previous studies have shown that designing the energy dissipation (ED) and post‐tensioning (PT) in CRSBFs using a response modification factor of R=8 can prevent collapse of structures during earthquakes beyond the design level. However, designers have unique control over the hysteretic behaviour of the system, even after the response modification factor is selected. Additionally, recent studies have suggested that CRSBFs could also be designed using R>8 while still satisfying performance limits. This paper examines how the response modification factor and the design of the ED and PT influence the collapse performance of CRSBFs with three and six storeys where collapse occurs because of over‐rotation of the base rocking joint. In addition, the influence of using an additional rocking joint above the base to mitigate higher‐mode forces is evaluated for a 12‐storey frame. A total of 18 different designs are considered for the three buildings using different ED and PT design parameters, including different response modification factors. A suite of 44 ground motions is scaled until at least 50% of the records cause collapse, and fragility curves are generated using the truncated incremental dynamic analysis curves. The results from two different assessment methodologies show that the parameters selected have a marked influence on the collapse performance of a CRSBF. Nevertheless, even CRSBFs designed using R>8 or without supplemental ED can have acceptably low probabilities of collapse, provided that the frame members are designed to remain elastic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of two alternative representations of ground‐motion uncertainty on probabilistic seismic demand assessment of structures

A probabilistic representation of the entire ground‐motion time history can be constructed based on a stochastic model that depends on seismic source parameters. An advanced stochastic simulation scheme known as Subset Simulation can then be used to efficiently compute the small failure probabilities corresponding to structural limit states. Alternatively, the uncertainty in the ground motion can be represented by adopting a parameter (or a vector of parameters) known as the intensity measure (IM) that captures the dominant features of the ground shaking. Structural performance assessment based on this representation can be broken down into two parts, namely, the structure‐specific part requiring performance assessment for a given value of the IM, and the site‐specific part requiring estimation of the likelihood that ground shaking with a given value of the IM takes place. The effect of these two alternative representations of ground‐motion uncertainty on probabilistic structural response is investigated for two hazard cases. In the first case, these two approaches are compared for a scenario earthquake event with a given magnitude and distance. In the second case, they are compared using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to take into account the potential of the surrounding faults to produce events with a range of possible magnitudes and distances. The two approaches are compared on the basis of the probabilistic response of an existing reinforced‐concrete frame structure, which is known to have suffered shear failure in its columns during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in Los Angeles, California. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing efficient scalar and vector intensity measures for IDA capacity estimation by incorporating elastic spectral shape information

Scalar and vector intensity measures are developed for the efficient estimation of limit‐state capacities through incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) by exploiting the elastic spectral shape of individual records. IDA is a powerful analysis method that involves subjecting a structural model to several ground motion records, each scaled to multiple levels of intensity (measured by the intensity measure or IM), thus producing curves of structural response parameterized by the IM on top of which limit‐states can be defined and corresponding capacities can be calculated. When traditional IMs are used, such as the peak ground acceleration or the first‐mode spectral acceleration, the IM‐values of the capacities can display large record‐to‐record variability, forcing the use of many records to achieve reliable results. By using single optimal spectral values as well as vectors and scalar combinations of them on three multistorey buildings significant dispersion reductions are realized. Furthermore, IDA is extended to vector IMs, resulting in intricate fractile IDA surfaces. The results reveal the most influential spectral regions/periods for each limit‐state and building, illustrating the evolution of such periods as the seismic intensity and the structural response increase towards global collapse. The ordinates of the elastic spectrum and the spectral shape of each individual record are found to significantly influence the seismic performance and they are shown to provide promising candidates for highly efficient IMs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct estimation of the seismic demand and capacity of oscillators with multi‐linear static pushovers through IDA

SPO2IDA is introduced, a software tool that is capable of recreating the seismic behaviour of oscillators with complex quadrilinear backbones. It provides a direct connection between the static pushover (SPO) curve and the results of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), a computer‐intensive procedure that offers thorough demand and capacity prediction capability by using a series of nonlinear dynamic analyses under a suitably scaled suite of ground motion records. To achieve this, the seismic behaviour of numerous single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems is investigated through IDA. The oscillators have a wide range of periods and feature pinching hysteresis with backbones ranging from simple bilinear to complex quadrilinear with an elastic, a hardening and a negative‐stiffness segment plus a final residual plateau that terminates with a drop to zero strength. An efficient method is introduced to treat the backbone shape by summarizing the analysis results into the 16, 50 and 84% fractile IDA curves, reducing them to a few shape parameters and finding simpler backbones that reproduce the IDA curves of complex ones. Thus, vast economies are realized while important intuition is gained on the role of the backbone shape to the seismic performance. The final product is SPO2IDA, an accurate, spreadsheet‐level tool for performance‐based earthquake engineering that can rapidly estimate demands and limit‐state capacities, strength reduction R‐factors and inelastic displacement ratios for any SDOF system with such a quadrilinear SPO curve. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Average spectral acceleration as an intensity measure for collapse risk assessment

This paper investigates the performance of spectral acceleration averaged over a period range (Sa_avg) as an intensity measure (IM) for estimating the collapse risk of structures subjected to earthquake loading. The performance of Sa_avg is evaluated using the following criteria: efficiency, sufficiency, the availability or ease of developing probabilistic seismic hazard information in terms of the IM and the variability of collapse risk estimates produced by the IM. Comparisons are also made between Sa_avg and the more traditional IM: spectral acceleration at the first‐mode period of the structure (Sa(T₁)). Though most previous studies have evaluated IMs using a relatively limited set of structures, this paper considers nearly 700 moment‐resisting frame and shear wall structures of various heights to compare the efficiency and sufficiency of the IMs. The collapse risk estimates produced by Sa_avg and Sa(T₁) are also compared, and the variability of the risk estimates is evaluated when different ground motion sets are used to assess the structural response. The results of this paper suggest that Sa_avg, when computed using an appropriate period range, is generally more efficient, more likely to be sufficient and provides more stable collapse risk estimates than Sa(T₁). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of collapse resistance of RC frame structures for Chinese schools in seismic design categories B and C

According to the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings (GB50011-2001), ten typical reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures, used as school classroom buildings, are designed with different seismic fortification intensities (SFIs) (SFI=6 to 8.5) and different seismic design categories (SDCs) (SDC=B and C). The collapse resistance of the frames with SDC=B and C in terms of collapse fragility curves are quantitatively evaluated and compared via incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). The results show that the coll...     

Performance‐based optimum seismic design of reinforced concrete structures

A fully automated design methodology based on nonlinear response history analysis is proposed for the optimum seismic design of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The conventional trial‐and‐error process is replaced by a structural optimization algorithm that serves as a search engine capable of locating the most efficient design in terms of cost and performance. Two variations of the proposed design methodology are introduced. The first approach treats the optimum design problem in a deterministic manner, while in the second variation the optimum design is sought in the framework of a reliability‐based optimization problem. The reliability‐based approach seems to be a more rational procedure since more meaningful design criteria that correlate better with the performance‐based design concept can be adopted. Thus, the practice of using the mean annual frequency of a limit‐state being exceeded to assess the candidate designs is compared with the use of deterministic criteria. Both formulations take into consideration the structural response for a number of limit‐states, from serviceability to collapse prevention. The proposed design procedure is specifically tailored to the design of RC structures, where a preliminary design step of generating tables of concrete sections is introduced. In order to handle the large size of the tables, the concept of multi‐database cascade optimization is implemented. The final design has to comply with the provisions of European design codes. The proposed methodology allows for a significant reduction of the direct construction cost combined with improved control of the seismic performance under earthquake loading. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Woodbury solution method for efficient seismic collapse analysis of space truss structures based on hybrid nonlinearity separation

This study presents a fast algorithm for collapse behavior simulation of space truss structures under extreme earthquake excitation by introducing the Woodbury formula to efficiently solve the structural response caused by material and geometric nonlinearity (hybrid nonlinearity). The Woodbury formula, which is an efficient tool in mathematics for solving low-rank perturbation problems, has successfully been used to improve the efficiency of local material nonlinear analysis but still has difficulties with seismic collapse analysis in which geometric nonlinearity should be considered. In this study, by implementing stiffness matrix decomposition according to the unchanged reference configuration, the effects of hybrid nonlinearity on the change in tangent stiffness of truss structures are uniformly formulated in the form of hybrid nonlinear perturbation to the reference elastic stiffness. Thus, a hybrid nonlinearity separated governing equation can be established, in which the hybrid nonlinear behaviors are depicted by the additional nonlinear degrees of freedom (NLDOFs) separated from the reference system. This allows for employing the Woodbury formula to perform seismic collapse analysis of space truss structures for avoiding the repeated updating of the global stiffness. To overcome the adverse effect of the large NLDOF number caused by the global characteristics of geometric nonlinearity on the efficiency advantages of the Woodbury formula during seismic collapse analysis, an element state judgment strategy and an adaptive restart mechanism are presented to activate only a small number of NLDOFs within critical local regions. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by two numerical examples.     

Performance‐based seismic design via yield frequency spectra‡

Yield frequency spectra (YFS) are introduced to enable the direct design of a structure subject to a set of seismic performance objectives. YFS offer a unique view of the entire solution space for structural performance. This is portrayed in terms of the mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceeding arbitrary ductility (or displacement) thresholds, versus the base shear strength of a structural system having specified yield displacement and capacity curve shape. YFS can be computed nearly instantaneously using publicly available software or closed‐form solutions, for any system whose response can be satisfactorily approximated by an equivalent nonlinear single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillator. Because the yield displacement typically is a more stable parameter for performance‐based seismic design compared with the period, the YFS format is especially useful for design. Performance objectives stated in terms of the MAF of exceeding specified ductility (or displacement) thresholds are used to determine the lateral strength that governs the design of the structure. Both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are considered, the latter at user‐selected confidence levels that can inject the desired conservatism in protecting against different failure modes. Near‐optimal values of design parameters can be determined in many cases in a single step. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simplified seismic sidesway collapse analysis of frame buildings

This paper presents the development and assessment of a simplified procedure for estimating the seismic sidesway collapse margin ratio of building structures. The proposed procedure is based on the development of a robust database of seismic peak displacement responses of nonlinear single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems for various seismic intensities and uses nonlinear static (pushover) analysis without the need for nonlinear time history dynamic analysis. The proposed simplified procedure is assessed by comparing its collapse capacity predictions on 72 different building structures with those obtained by nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses. The proposed simplified procedure offers a simple, yet efficient, computational/analytical tool that is capable of predicting collapse capacities with acceptable accuracy for a wide variety of frame building structures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental multi‐level seismic performance assessment of 3D RC frame designed for damage avoidance

This paper experimentally investigates the application of damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy to moment‐resisting frames with particular emphasis on detailing of rocking interfaces. An 80% scale three‐dimensional rocking beam–column joint sub‐assembly designed and detailed based on damage avoidance principles is constructed and tested. Incremental dynamic analysis is used for selecting ground motion records to be applied to the sub‐assembly for conducting a multi‐level seismic performance assessment (MSPA). Analyses are conducted to obtain displacement demands due to the selected near‐ and medium‐field ground motions that represent different levels of seismic hazard. Thus, predicted displacement time histories are applied to the sub‐assembly for conducting quasi‐earthquake displacement tests. The sub‐assembly performed well reaching drifts up to 4.7% with only minor spalling occurring at rocking beam interfaces and minor flexural cracks in beams. Yielding of post‐tensioning threaded bars occurred, but the sub‐assembly did not collapse. The externally attached energy dissipators provided large hysteretic dissipation during large drift cycles. The sub‐assembly satisfied all three seismic performance requirements, thereby verifying the superior performance of the DAD philosophy. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance‐based seismic assessment method for Taiwanese historic Dieh‐Dou timber structures

Lateral force, response spectrum and step‐by‐step pushover analyses are performed and compared with the post‐earthquake survey of two Dieh‐Dou buildings seriously affected in the 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake in Taiwan. The results show that the proposed FE model with finite translational and rotational stiffness can successfully be employed to assess the vulnerability of the frames. The fundamental period of Dieh‐Dou structures is about 1.0 s higher than that calculated by the simplified approach of the codes for regular frames; a modal analysis is, therefore, essential for this typology of structure. The elastic analysis, either lateral force or response spectrum, is shown to be reliable to assess Dieh‐Dou frames when quick results are desired. However, a non‐linear step‐by‐step pushover analysis has the advantage of greater accuracy, as it allows mapping the failure trend and indicating the critical elements. The lateral drifts are compared with the actual observed damage pattern and when the damage level is related to the peak ground acceleration on a vulnerability curve plot, it is shown that the joint failure combined with the lateral drift gives an indication of the global structural behaviour of this historic construction typology. Owing to the unique construction features of the Dieh‐Dou, the joint failure represents also a critical criterion in terms of maximum retention for conservation. Based on a damage level approach, an assessment methodology is suggested that would allow optimizing a strengthening strategy, for protection of these precious structures from future earthquakes while avoiding unnecessary interventions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.