Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation extrema in the Haihe River Basin,China

In this article, we investigated the variability of precipitation conditions in the Haihe River basin (HRB) during 1961–2010 by analyzing four daily precipitation scenarios. These scenarios were set with the values of, equal to 0 mm/day, 10–20 mm/day, 20–50 mm/day, and greater than 50 mm/day, which were denoted as P0, P10, P20, and P50, respectively. Results indicate that the mean values of daily precipitation decline, and its fluctuation becomes weak with years in HRB. The contour of daily precipitation with the mean value of 1.4 mm/day moves more than 100 km toward southeast in the basin from 1960s to 2000s. The variations of four precipitation scenarios show difference. The Tianjin and Langfang cities were the P0 drought center in HRB after 1980s, and the days and regions without precipitation increase with years. The magnitude of P10 extrema shows no significant changes over the last 50 years, but the rainfall centers vary with areas in HRB. The magnitude of P20 extrema shows no obvious changes in 1961–2000 but increases in 2000s. The magnitude of P50 extrema obviously declines in the last 50 years, with the rainfall center moving from northeast to south of HRB. Urbanization impacts are reflected in some cities in 1980s and 1990s, but after 2000, the urbanization impacts were not clearly detected due to the significant precipitation decreases in HRB. In summary, precipitation decrease is caused by the decreases of P50 extrema rather than P10 and P20 extrema in HRB, which would be favorable for the flood resources utilization through ample‐low flow operations over space. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin,China

The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江流域降水变化及其趋势演变

本文对中国长江流域降水趋势进行了分析.指出对月降水量而言,20世纪后50年不同区域出现1不胃的降水趋势变化特征.趋势插补法研究表明中国降水时空分布趋势十分明显.对长江流域长期降水资料分析研究指出夏季月份降水时间更集中,而对年降水而言在一些站则表现出明显的周期变化.     

长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征

在1960-2005年长江流域147气象观测站汛期4-9月逐日降水资料基础上,通过计算逐站大于95th强降水及其间隔天数、小于1.27mm/d的持续天数,分析长江流域降水极值时间序列的时空分布特征,并建立概率分布模式.研究发现,长江上游四川盆地附近及中下游鄱阳湖流域东南部是汛期强降水中心,也是长江流域强降水最集中发生的地区.汛期降水强度小于1.27mm/d的天数,在上游干流、岷沱江流域、乌江上游地区为多.但此处干旱持续天数最短,干旱形式并不严重.而在金沙江上、下游,洞庭湖流域,鄱阳湖流域东南部支流及下游干流区干旱持续天数较长.长江流域大于95th强降水的间隔天数与小于1.27mm/d的干旱持续天数服从Weibull-Ⅱ型分布.分布参数变化的模式较准确的反映降水极值时间序列的时空变化特征.     

1990s长江流域降水趋势分析

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.     

Assessment of extreme drought and human interference on baseflow of the Yangtze River

Attention has been given to baseflow in large rivers, but up to now, no study on baseflow for the Yangtze River in combination with extreme drought and extensive human activities has been carried out. Discharge data in 2000–2005 and in the extreme drought years, 1978 and 2006, at stations along the main stream, lakes and distributaries of the Yangtze River were collected to analyse the features of baseflow in 2006 by using baseflow separation technique, HYSEP. It can be seen that the baseflow relative to the streamflow in 2006 was greater than those in other years. The variation of baseflow discharge in the Upper Yangtze River Stream (UYRS) was larger than that in the Mid‐Lower Yangtze River Stream (MLYRS). Human activities in MLYRS are more intensive than that in the UYRS and the baseflow discharge was greater. The baseflow is influenced by the extreme climate and human activities along the Yangtze River with the former being the dominant factor in 2006. The contribution of human interference to baseflow discharge was about 10% in 2006. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江上游地区可利用降水量的气候特征

利用长江上游地区107个观测站1960-2008年气温、降水观测资料,采用陆面蒸发经验模型计算得到各观测站的月蒸发量,再根据水量平衡关系,得到可利用降水量,采用数理统计、REOF分析和M-K突变检验等方法,分析长江上游地区可利用降水量的气候变化特征.结果表明:长江上游可利用降水量季节变化显著,5-9月长江上游可利用降水...     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation

Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of precipitation extremes with the assessment of regional climate models over the Willamette River Basin,USA

An appropriate, rapid and effective response to extreme precipitation and any potential flood disaster is essential. Providing an accurate estimate of future changes to such extreme events due to climate change are crucial for responsible decision making in flood risk management given the predictive uncertainties. The objective of this article is to provide a comparison of dynamically downscaled climate models simulations from multiple model including 12 different combinations of General Circulation Model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM), which offers an abundance of additional data sets. The three major aspects of this study include the bias correction of RCM scenarios, the application of a newly developed performance metric and the extreme value analysis of future precipitation. The dynamically downscaled data sets reveal a positive overall bias that is removed through quantile mapping bias correction method. The added value index was calculated to evaluate the models' simulations. Results from this metric reveal that not all of the RCMs outperform their host GCMs in terms of correlation skill. Extreme value theory was applied to both historic, 1980–1998, and future, 2038–2069, daily data sets to provide estimates of changes to 2‐ and 25‐year return level precipitation events. The generalized Pareto distribution was used for this purpose. The Willamette River basin was selected as the study region for analysis because of its topographical variability and tendency for significant precipitation. The extreme value analysis results showed significant differences between model runs for both historical and future periods with considerable spatial variability in precipitation extremes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

温室效应对未来长江中下游地区温度和降水变化的影响

使用全球海气耦合模式和区域气候模式,对人类活动影响导致的温室气体和气溶胶增加引起的长江中下游地区的气候变化进行了分析研究.全球模式部分使用的是IPCC数据分发中心提供的5个模式模拟结果,包括IS92a中未来温室气体增加(GG)以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶共同增加(GS)和A2、B2共4种排放情景.分析表明在温室气体增加的情况下,这里未来的地面气温变化与全球和全国一样,都呈增加趋势.以GG和GS为例,GG情景下,这一地区的变暖幅度在21世纪末期达到4.2℃, GS情景下达到3.1℃.但总体来说这里的变暖幅度较全球和中国其它大部分地区小.各个季节中,冬春季的增温幅度大于夏秋季.对降水的分析表明,GG情景下长江中下游地区是中国降水增加较少的地区之一,而在GS情景下,降水将出现微弱的减少.区域气候模式的模拟,在气温变化方面得到的结果和全球模式类似.但降水与全球模式的结果有所差别,主要表现在降水增加的季节分布不同上,模拟结果中降水增加最多的是冬季和夏季(增加值分别为44%和23%),而春秋季的降水将减少.     

长江三角洲江都-镇江冰后期古河谷沉积特征及其沉积中心的变迁

长江三角洲江都-镇江（大港）河段冰后期地层层序可分为早期海侵层序和中、晚期海退层序。早期海侵层序主要包括下部冰消期近源辫状河流相、中部河流相、上部河漫滩相,为一套海进式河床充填层序,在垂向上具有该河段独有的三层结构特点。中、晚期海退层序主要包括前三角洲相、三角洲前缘相和三角洲平原相,在垂向上也具有三层结构特点。冰后期以来,古长江的江面宽度不断变化,沉积中心位置也随之发生多次较大调整：冰消期至全新世早期,中心位置曾不断向南偏移;从全新世中期开始,其中心位置开始北移直至最大海侵结束;最大海侵后,随着三角洲不断进积,其中心位置也开始节节南移直至现今位置;从最大海侵到现在,古长江中心位置可能向南移动大约15 km。     

Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the source region of the Yellow River,China

Much of the discussion on hydrological trends and variability in the source region of the Yellow River centres on the mean values of the mainstream flows. Changes in hydrological extremes in the mainstream as well as in the tributary flows are largely unexplored. Although decreasing water availability has been noted, the nature of those changes is less explored. This article investigates trends and variability in the hydrological regimes (both mean values and extreme events) and their links with the local climate in the source region of the Yellow River over the last 50 years (1959–2008). This large catchment is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstraction and impoundments, enabling the characterization of widely natural, climate‐driven trends. A total of 27 hydrological variables were used as indicators for the analysis. Streamflow records from six major headwater catchments and climatic data from seven stations were studied. The trend results vary considerably from one river basin to another, and become more accentuated with longer time period. Overall, the source region of the Yellow River is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability. Noteworthy are strong decreasing trends in the winter (dry season) monthly flows of January to March and September as well as in annual mean flow, annual 1‐, 3‐, 7‐, 30‐ and 90‐day maxima and minima flows for Maqu and Tangnag catchments over the period 1959–2008. The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas

The Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by high density of population and rapidly developing economy. There are low lying coastal plain and deltaic plain in this region. Thus, the study area could be highly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise caused by global warming. This paper deals with the scenarios of the relative sea level rise in the early half period of the 21st century in the study area. The authors suggested that relative sea level would rise 25 50 cm by the year 2050 in the study area, of which the magnitude of relative sea level rise in the Yangtze River Delta would double the perspective worldwide average. The impacts of sea level rise include: (i) exacerbation of coastline recession in several sections and vertical erosion of tidal flat, and increase in length of eroding coastline; (ii) decrease in area of tidal flat and coastal wetland due to erosion and inundation; (iii) increase in frequency and intensity of storm surge, which would threaten the coastal protection works; (iv) reduction of drainage capacity due to backwater effect in the Lixiahe lowland and the eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, and exacerbation of flood and waterlogging disasters; and (v) increase in salt water intrusion into the Yangtze Estuary. Comprehensive evaluation of sea level rise impacts shows that the Yangtze River Delta and eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, especially Shanghai Municipality, belong in the district in the extreme risk category and the next is the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay, the third is the abandoned Yellow River delta, and the district at low risk includes the central part of north Jiangsu coastal plain and Lixiahe lowland.     

Trends in precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin in North China: Changing properties and causes

The Mann–Kendall test, composite analysis, and 68 high‐quality meteorological stations were used to explore the spatiotemporal variations and causes of precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin (YRB) during the period of 1960–2011. Results showed that (a) the YRB is characterized by decreases of most precipitation indices, excluding the simple daily intensity index, which has increasing trends in most locations, suggesting that the intensity of rainfall and the probability of occurrence of droughts have increased during the last decades. (b) Trends of extreme precipitation show mixed patterns in the lower reach of the YRB, where drought–flood disasters have increased. The increases in heavy rainfall and decreases in consecutive wet days in recent years over the northwestern portions of the YRB indicate that the intensity and frequency of above‐normal precipitation have been trending upward in domains. In the central‐south YRB, the maximum 1‐day precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation on extremely wet days (R99p) have significantly increased, whereas the number of consecutive dry days has declined; these trends suggest that the intensity of precipitation extremes has increased in those regions, although the frequency of extreme and total rainfall has decreased. (c) The spatial distributions of seasonal trends in RX1day and maximum 5‐day precipitation (RX5day) exhibited less spatial coherence, and winter is becoming the wettest season regionwide, particularly over the central‐south YRB. (d) There were multiple and overlapping cycles of variability for most precipitation indices, indicating variations of time and frequency. (e) Elevation is intimately correlated with precipitation indices, and a weakening East Asian summer monsoon during 1986–2011 compared to that in 1960–1985 may have played an important role in the declines in most indices over the YRB. Therefore, the combined effects from local and teleconnection forcing factors have collectively influenced the variations in precipitation extremes across the YRB. This study may provide valuable evidence for the effective management of water resources and the conduct of agricultural activities at the basin scale.     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation

This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns of trends of the precipitation maxima (defined as the annual/seasonal maximum precipitation) in the Yangtze River basin for 1960–2005 using Mann–Kendall trend test, and explored association of changing patterns of the precipitation maxima with large-scale circulation using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The research results indicate changes of precipitation maxima from relative stable patterns to the significant increasing/decreasing trend in the middle 1970s. With respect to annual variability, the rainy days are decreasing and precipitation intensity is increasing, and significant increasing trend of precipitation intensity was detected in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. Number of rain days with daily precipitation exceeding 95th and 99th percentiles and related precipitation intensities are in increasing tendency in summer. Large-scale atmospheric circulation analysis indicates decreasing strength of East Asian summer monsoon during 1975–2005 as compared to that during 1961–1974 and increasing geopotential height in the north China, South China Sea and west Pacific regions, all of which combine to negatively impact the northward propagation of the vapor flux. This circulation pattern will be beneficial for the longer stay of the Meiyu front in the Yangtze River basin, leading to more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in summer months. The significant increasing summer precipitation intensity and changing frequency in the rain/no-rain days in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin have potential to result in higher occurrence probability of flood and drought hazards in the region.     

Impact of the spatial variability of daily precipitation on hydrological projections: A comparison of GCM‐ and RCM‐driven cases in the Han River basin,Korea

In this study, we investigate the impact of the spatial variability of daily precipitation on hydrological projections based on a comparative assessment of streamflow simulations driven by a global climate model (GCM) and two regional climate models (RCMs). A total of 12 different climate input datasets, that is, the raw and bias‐corrected GCM and raw and bias‐corrected two RCMs for the reference and future periods, are fed to a semidistributed hydrological model to assess whether the bias correction using quantile mapping and dynamical downscaling using RCMs can improve streamflow simulation in the Han River basin, Korea. A statistical analysis of the daily precipitation demonstrates that the precipitation simulated by the GCM fails to capture the large variability of the observed daily precipitation, in which the spatial autocorrelation decreases sharply within a relatively short distance. However, the spatial variability of precipitation simulated by the two RCMs shows better agreement with the observations. After applying bias correction to the raw GCM and raw RCMs outputs, only a slight change is observed in the spatial variability, whereas an improvement is observed in the precipitation intensity. Intensified precipitation but with the same spatial variability of the raw output from the bias‐corrected GCM does not improve the heterogeneous runoff distributions, which in turn regulate unrealistically high peak downstream streamflow. GCM‐simulated precipitation with a large bias correction that is necessary to compensate for the poor performance in present climate simulation appears to distort streamflow patterns in the future projection, which leads to misleading projections of climate change impacts on hydrological extremes.     

长江流域近50年降水变化及其对干流洪水的影响

根据我国长江流域气象观测站近42年的资料,分析了整个流域年和季节平均面雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨量的变化特征,以及降水对流域径流和洪水的影响.长江流域年和夏季平均面雨量存在明显的年际和年代变化特征,也表现出比较显著的趋势变化特点.大部分测站年平均面雨量呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季平均面雨量的增加趋势尤其明显;秋季平均面雨量呈显著下降趋势.同时,年和夏季暴雨日数和暴雨量也在较大范围内呈显著增加趋势.长江流域的降水对干流平均流量具有重要影响.1973年、1983年和1998年的洪水主要是由明显高于平均的流域面雨量引起的;长江下游平均流量变化趋势也同流域年平均面雨量、夏季平均面雨量变化趋势基本一致,特别是70年代末以来,下游平均流量和流域面雨量的上升趋势更加明显,并同时在1998年达到最高值.长江流域大的丰水年一般对应El Nino年或El Nino次年,表明E1 Nino对长江较大洪水可能具有一定影响.     

山东地区中小地震概率预测实践

基于时间相依的地震复发间隔混合概率模型,开展山东地区中、短期尺度上的中小地震的概率预测实践,1年的检验结果显示,3、4级中小地震基本发生在此前给出的地震危险性高概率区。研究认为,该方法在日常地震会商中应用效果较好,并有望为破坏性地震的概率预测提供参考。     

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long‐term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non‐parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t‐test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann–Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0·80 °C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long‐term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long‐term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are ? 29·96 h/10 yr and ? 39·63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann–Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.