Relative effects of human activities and climate change on the river runoff in an arid basin in northwest China

Understanding the mechanisms of river runoff variation is important for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi‐arid regions. This study uses long‐term observational data as a basis for examining the effects of human activities and climate change on the runoff variation of Jinghe River Basin, a typical arid inland basin in northwest China. A distributed hydrological model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, combined with a sequential cluster method and a separation approach, was used to quantify and distinguish the effects of human activities and climate change on runoff. The hydrological sequence before 1981 can be considered natural. However, human activities have significantly affected runoff since 1981. The runoff reduction caused by human activities between 1981 and 2008 accounted for 85.7% of the total reduction in the downstream of Jinghe River, whereas that caused by climatic variation was only 14.3%. This observation suggests that human activities are the major driver of runoff variation in the basin. Although the role of climate change in driving runoff variation has been identified to be prevalent and dominant in arid regions, this study highlights the importance of human activities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulated runoff responses to land use in the middle and upstream reaches of Taoerhe River basin,Northeast China,in wet,average and dry years

Study on runoff variations and responses can lay a foundation for flood control, water allocation and integrated river basin management. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to simulate the effects of land use on annual and monthly runoff in the Middle and Upstream Reaches of Taoerhe River basin, Northeast China, under the wet, average and dry climate conditions through scenario analysis. The results showed that from the early 1970s to 2000, land use change with an increase in farmland (17.0%) and decreases in forest (10.6%), grassland (4.6%) and water body (3.1%) caused increases in annual and monthly runoff. This effect was more distinct in the wet season or in the wet year, suggesting that land use change from the early 1970s to 2000 may increase the flood potential in the wet season. Increases in precipitation and air temperature from the average to wet year led to annual and monthly (March and from June to December) runoff increases, while a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature from the average to dry year induced decreases in annual and monthly (all months except March) runoff, and moreover, these effects were more remarkable in the wet season than those in the dry season. Due to the integrated effects of changing land use and climate conditions, the annual runoff increased (decreased) by 70.1 mm (25.2 mm) or 197.4% (71.0%) from the average to wet (dry) year. In conclusion, climate conditions, especially precipitation, played an important role in runoff variations while land use change was secondary over the study area, and furthermore, the effects of changes in land use and/or climate conditions on monthly runoff were larger in the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determining the relative contributions of climate change and multiple human activities to variations of sediment regime in the Minjiang River,China

In‐stream sediment transport plays an important role in delivery of sediment‐associated terrestrial elements. Investigating the history of fluvial sediment regime responding to changes in natural and anthropogenic driving forces provides a theoretical basis for establishment of optimal strategies on catchment management. The present study aims to systematically detect the patterns of change in sediment load at two key hydrological stations (Pengshan and Gaochang) in the Minjiang River and quantitatively evaluate the relative contributions of regional precipitation change and multiple local human activities to the observed sediment variations. Abrupt change in annual sediment load was detected in 1990 at Pengshan and in 1968, 1980 and 1992 at Gaochang. Compared with the baseline period of 1957–1990, precipitation decline and human activities had respectively contributed to 5 × 10⁶ t and 2 × 10⁶ t of reduction in mean annual sediment load at Pengshan during 1991–2007. For the entire Minjiang basin, taking 1956–1968 as the baseline period, precipitation decline and human activities had relatively contributed to 10 × 10⁶ t and 18 × 10⁶ t of reduction in mean annual sediment load at Gaochang during 1969–1980. During 1981–1992, precipitation decline had relatively contributed to 5 × 10⁶ t of reduction in mean annual sediment load, but human activities had led to 3 × 10⁶ t of increase in mean annual sediment load. During 1993–2009, 13 × 10⁶ t and 17 × 10⁶ t of reduction in mean annual sediment load may be attributed to precipitation decline and human activities, respectively. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1960年以来气候变化与人类活动对鄱阳湖流域生态径流改变的影响

基于鄱阳湖流域五河水文站1960-2013年逐日径流量和14个国家级气象站的日气象数据,本文利用长短记忆模型框架构建神经网络模型来开展鄱阳湖流域的径流过程模拟,结合生态赤字与生态盈余等生态径流指标,定量分析了鄱阳湖流域的水文变异特征.同时,利用差异化的情景模拟方式,定量区分了人类活动和气候变化对鄱阳湖流域生态径流变化的...     

Impact of projected climate change on the hydrology in the headwaters of the Yellow River basin

Located in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, the headwaters of the Yellow River basin (HYRB) are very vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impact of future climate change on this region's hydrological components for the near future period of 2013–2042 under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The uncertainty in this evaluation was considered by employing Bayesian model averaging approach on global climate model (GCM) multimodel ensemble projections. First, we evaluated the capability of the SWAT model for streamflow simulation in this basin. Second, the GCMs' monthly ensemble projections were downscaled to daily climate data using the bias‐correction and spatial‐disaggregation method and then were utilized as input into the SWAT model. The results indicate the following: (1) The SWAT model exhibits a good performance for both calibration and validation periods after adjusting parameters in snowmelt module and establishing elevation bands in sub‐basins. (2) The projected precipitation suggests a general increase under all three scenarios, with a larger extent in both A1B and B1 and a slight variation for A2. With regard to temperature, all scenarios show pronounced warming trends, of which A2 displays the largest amplitude. (3) In the terms of total runoff from the whole basin, there is an increasing trend in the future streamflow at Tangnaihai gauge under A1B and B1, while the A2 scenario is characterized by a declining trend. Spatially, A1B and B1 scenarios demonstrate increasing trends across most of the region. Groundwater and surface runoffs indicate similar trends with total runoff, whereas all three scenarios exhibit an increase in actual evapotranspiration. Generally, both A1B and B1 scenarios suggest a warmer and wetter tendency over the HYRB in the forthcoming decades, while the case for A2 indicates a warmer and drier trend. Findings from this study can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco‐environment management strategies for governmental policymakers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hydrological response to different land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China

Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of runoff to climate change in the Wei River basin,China

Abstract

Climate change will likely have severe effects on water shortages, flood disasters and the deterioration of aquatic systems. In this study, the hydrological response to climate change was assessed in the Wei River basin (WRB), China. The statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was used to downscale regional climate change scenarios on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and two emissions scenarios. Driven by these scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated and validated to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the WRB. The results showed that the average annual runoff in the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 would increase by 12.4% and 45%, respectively, relative to the baseline period 1961–2008. Low flows would be much lower, while high flows would be much higher, which means there would be more extreme events of droughts and floods. The results exhibited consistency in the spatial distribution of runoff change under most scenarios, with decreased runoff in the upstream regions, and increases in the mid- and lower reaches of the WRB.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang     

The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area,Oregon, USA

Climate changes brought on by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to have a significant effect on the Pacific Northwest hydrology during the 21st century. Many climate model simulations project higher mean annual temperatures and temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is of particular concern for highly urbanized basins where runoff changes are more vulnerable to changes in climate. The Rock Creek basin, located in the Portland metropolitan area, has been experiencing rapid urban growth throughout the last 30 years, making it an ideal study area for assessing the effect of climate and land cover changes on runoff. A combination of climate change and land cover change scenarios for 2040 with the semi‐distributed AVSWAT (ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to determine changes in mean runoff depths in the 2040s (2030–2059) from the baseline period (1973–2002) at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Statistically downscaled climate change simulation results from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) found that the region would experience an increase of 1·2 °C in the average annual temperature and a 2% increase in average annual precipitation from the baseline period. AVSWAT simulation shows a 2·7% increase in mean annual runoff but a 1·6% decrease in summer runoff. Projected climate change plus low‐density, sprawled urban development for 2040 produced the greatest change to mean annual runoff depth (+5·5%), while climate change plus higher‐density urban development for 2040 resulted in the smallest change (+5·2%), when compared with the climate and land cover of the baseline period. This has significant implications for water resource managers attempting to implement adaptive water resource policies to future changes resulting from climate and urbanization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识

为针对性地提出洪湖流域水资源适应与应对气候变化和人类活动影响的措施,保护洪湖流域生态资源,促进其可持续发展,采取分布式水文模型SWAT定量辨识了1990s流域城镇快速发展以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域地表径流的影响程度.结果表明:近20年来,人类活动是洪湖流域地表径流减少的主要原因,其影响量占径流减少量的63.72%,气候变化的影响占36.28%.但不同阶段人类活动与气候变化对流域径流影响的程度不同,1990s气候变化对流域径流的影响量高于人类活动,2000s气候变化对流域径流的影响量低于人类活动,近20年来的水土保持措施已经发挥了较好的径流调节和保水效益.     

Impact and uncertainties of climate change on the hydrology of the Mara River basin,Kenya/Tanzania

The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the Mara River basin (MRB) was assessed. Sixteen global circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated, and five were selected for the assessment of future climate scenarios in the basin. Observed rainfall and temperature data for the control period (1961–1990) were combined with expected GCMs output using the delta and direct statistical downscaling methods and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Uncertainties of climate change were addressed through compare and contrast of results across diverse GCMs, future climate scenarios and the two downscaling methods. Both methods produced a relatively similar annual rainfall amount, but their monthly and daily pattern showed considerable differences. The relative advantages and disadvantages of implementing one method over the other were also explored. The hydrologic impact of climate change in the basin was assessed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model was calibrated and validated with observed data in the control period with (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency, coefficient of determination) results of (calibration: 0.68, 0.69) and (validation: 0.43, 0.44) at Mara Mines. Results have shown a statistically significant increase in flow volume of the Mara River flow at Mara Mines for the year 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. With due attention to the limitations, findings of this study have a wider application for water resources sustainability analysis in the MRB in the face of uncertainties due to climate change. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework for quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought in a semiarid basin of Northern China

Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces affecting the hydrologic cycle, which further influence the stationarity of the hydrologic regime. Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from the normal hydrologic conditions affected by these two phenomena. In this study, we propose a framework for quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. First, trend analysis and change‐point test are performed to determine variations of hydrological variables. After that, the fixed runoff threshold level method (TLM) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) are used to verify whether the traditional assessment methods for hydrological drought are applicable in a changing environment. Finally, two improved drought assessment methods, the variable TLM and the SRI based on parameter transplantation are employed to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought based on the reconstructed natural runoff series obtained using the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The results of a case study on the typical semiarid Laohahe basin in North China show that the stationarity of the hydrological processes in the basin is destroyed by human activities (an obvious change‐point for runoff series is identified in 1979). The traditional hydrological drought assessment methods can no longer be applied to the period of 1980–2015. In contrast, the proposed separation framework is able to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to hydrological drought during the above period. Their ranges of contributions to hydrological drought calculated by the variable TLM method are 20.6–41.2% and 58.8–79.4%, and the results determined by the SRI based on parameter transplantation method are 15.3–45.3% and 54.7–84.7%, respectively. It is concluded that human activities have a dominant effect on hydrological drought in the study region. The novelty of the study is twofold. First, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient in quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. Second, the findings of this study can be used for hydrological drought assessment and water resource management in water‐stressed regions under nonstationary conditions.     

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing,China

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water–energy balance equations with the Penman-Monteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5–12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4–89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.Y. Xu     

Effect of climate changes and water‐related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang river basin in arid north‐west China

The change of annual stream flow in the Shiyang river basin, a typical arid‐inland basin in north‐west China, was investigated using hydrological, meteorological and water‐related human activities' data of the past 50 years. The long‐term trends of the hydrological time series were examined by non‐parametric techniques, including the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests. Double cumulative curves and multi‐regression methods were used to separate and quantify the effects of climate changes and human activities on the stream flows. The results show that the study area has been experiencing a significant upward warming trend since 1986 and precipitation shows a decreasing trend in the mountainous region but an increasing trend in the plains region. All stream flows in the upper reach and lower reaches of the Shiyang river exhibit decreasing tendencies. Since 1970, human activities, such as irrigation, have had a significant effect on the upstream flow, and account for 60% of total flow decreases in the 1970s. However, climate changes are the main reason for the observed flow decreases in the 1980s and 1990s, with contributions to total flow decrease of 68% and 63%, respectively. Before 1975, flow decreases in the upper reaches were the main factor causing reduced flows in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river. After 1975, the effect of human activities became more pronounced, with contributions of 63%, 68% and 56% to total flow decreases in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river in the periods 1975 to 1980, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. As a result, climate change is responsible for a large proportion of the flow decreases in the upstream section of the catchment during the 1980s and 1990s, while human activities have caused flow decreases downstream during the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin,Poland

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Piniewski, M., Okruszko, T., and Acreman, M.C., 2014. Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 916–934.     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China

Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions. In this paper, output from the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse the effects of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu rivers in the Shiyang River basin, an important arid region in northwest China. After SWAT model calibration and validation, streamflow in the Shiyang River Basin was simulated using the PRECIS climate model data for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high emission rate) and B2 (low emission rate) developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monthly streamflow and hydrological extremes were compared for present‐day years (1961–1990), the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The results show that mean monthly streamflow in Shiyang River Basin generally increased in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s between 0.7–6.1% at the Zamu gauging station and 0.1–4.8% at the Xiying gauging station. The monthly minimum streamflow increased persistently, but the maximum monthly streamflows increased in the 2020s and slightly decreased in the 2050s and 2080s. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Shiyang River Basin and other arid and semi‐arid regions in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land‐use and climate change in the Be River Catchment,Vietnam

In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, these effects are quantified using three methods, namely, multi‐regression, hydrologic sensitivity analysis, and hydrologic model simulation. A conceptual framework is defined to separate the effects. As an example, the change in annual runoff from the semiarid Laohahe basin (18 112 km²) in northern China was investigated. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt test, and precipitation‐runoff double cumulative curve method were adopted to identify the trends and change‐points in the annual runoff from 1964 to 2008 by first dividing the long‐term runoff series into a natural period (1964–1979) and a human‐induced period (1980–2008). Then the three quantifying methods were calibrated and calculated, and they provided consistent estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the human‐induced period. In 1980–2008, human activities were the main factors that reduced runoff with contributions of 89–93%, while the reduction percentages due to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration only ranged from 7 to 11%. For the various effects at different durations, human activities were the main reasons runoff decreased during the two drier periods of 1980–1989 and 2000–2008. Increased runoff during the wetter period of 1990–1999 is mainly attributed to climate variability. This study quantitatively separates the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can serve as a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.