Snow cover and runoff modelling in a high mountain catchment with scarce data: effects of temperature and precipitation parameters

Snowmelt is an important source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Snowmelt modelling for alpine regions remains challenging with scarce gauges. This study simulates the snowmelt in the Karuxung River catchment in the south Tibetan Plateau using an altitude zone based temperature‐index model, calibrates the snow cover area and runoff simulation during 2003–2005 and validates the model performance via snow cover area and runoff simulation in 2006. In the snowmelt and runoff modelling, temperature and precipitation are the two most important inputs. Relevant parameters, such as critical snow fall temperature, temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, determine the form and amount of precipitation and distribution of temperature and precipitation in hydrological modelling of the sparsely gauged catchment. Sensitivity analyses show that accurate estimation of these parameters would greatly help in improving the snowmelt simulation accuracy, better describing the snow‐hydrological behaviours and dealing with the data scarcity at higher elevations. Specifically, correlation between the critical snow fall temperature and relative humidity and seasonal patterns of both the temperature lapse rate and the precipitation gradient should be considered in the modelling studies when precipitation form is not logged and meteorological observations are only available at low elevation. More accurate simulation of runoff involving snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff will improve our understanding of hydrological processes and help assess runoff impacts from a changing climate in high mountain catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating source regions for snowmelt runoff in a Rocky Mountain basin: tests of a data‐based conceptual modeling approach

In many mountain basins, river discharge measurements are located far away from runoff source areas. This study tests whether a basic snowmelt runoff conceptual model can be used to estimate relative contributions of different elevation zones to basin‐scale discharge in the Cache la Poudre, a snowmelt‐dominated Rocky Mountain river. Model tests evaluate scenarios that vary model configuration, input variables, and parameter values to determine how these factors affect discharge simulation and the distribution of runoff generation with elevation. Results show that the model simulates basin discharge well (NSCE and R >0.90) when input precipitation and temperature are distributed with different lapse rates, with a rain‐snow threshold parameter between 0 and 3.3 °C, and with a melt rate parameter between 2 and 4 mm °C^?1 d^?1 because these variables and parameters can have compensating interactions with each other and with the runoff coefficient parameter. Only the hydrograph recession parameter can be uniquely defined with this model structure. These non‐unique model scenarios with different configurations, input variables, and parameter values all indicate that the majority of basin discharge comes from elevations above 2900 m, or less than 25% of the basin total area, with a steep increase in runoff generation above 2600 m. However, the simulations produce unrealistically low runoff ratios for elevations above 3000 m, highlighting the need for additional measurements of snow and discharge at under‐sampled elevations to evaluate the accuracy of simulated snow and runoff patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of snow processes to climate change: spatial variability in a small basin in the Spanish Pyrenees

In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform was used to create an alpine snow model including wind redistribution of snow and energy balance snowmelt to simulate the snowpack over the period 1996–2009 in a small (33 ha) snow‐dominated basin in the Spanish Pyrenees. The basin was divided into three hydrological response units (HRUs), based on contrasting physiographic and aerodynamic characteristics. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to calculate the snow water equivalent regime for various combinations of temperature and precipitation that differed from observed conditions. The results show that there was large inter‐annual variability in the snowpack in this region of the Pyrenees because of its marked sensitivity to climatic conditions. Although the basin is small and quite homogeneous, snowpack seasonality and inter‐annual evolution of the snowpack varied in each HRU. Snow accumulation change in relation to temperature change was approximately 20% for every 1 °C, and the duration of the snowpack was reduced by 20–30 days per °C. Melting rates decreased with increased temperature, and wind redistribution of snow was higher with decreased temperature. The magnitude and sign of changes in precipitation may markedly affect the response of the snowpack to changes in temperature. There was a non‐linear response of snow to individual and combined changes in temperature and precipitation, with respect to both the magnitude and sign of the change. This was a consequence of the complex interactions among climate, topography and blowing snow in the study basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.     

Analysis of seasonal snowmelt contribution using a distributed energy balance model for a river basin in the Altai Mountains of northwestern China

Snowmelt water is a vital freshwater resource in the Altai Mountains of northwestern China. Yet its seasonal hydrological cycle characteristics could change under a warming climate and more rapid spring snowmelt. Here, we simulated snowmelt runoff dynamics in the Kayiertesi River catchment, from 2000 to 2016, by using an improved hydrological distribution model that relied on high-resolution meteorological data acquired from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Fnl-NCEP) that were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecasting model. Its predictions were compared to observed runoff data, which confirmed the simulations' reliability. Our results show the model performed well, in general, given its daily validation Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.62 (from 2013 to 2015) and a monthly NSE score of 0.68 (from 2000 to 2010) for the studied river basin of the Altai Mountains. In this river basin catchment, snowfall accounted for 64.1% of its precipitation and snow evaporation for 49.8% of its total evaporation, while snowmelt runoff constituted 29.3% of the annual runoff volume. Snowmelt's contribution to runoff in the Altai Mountains can extend into non-snow days because of the snowmelt water retained in soils. From 2000 to 2016, the snow-to-rain ratio decreased rapidly, however, the snowmelt contribution remained relatively stable in the study region. Our findings provide a sound basis for making snowmelt runoff predictions, which could be used prevent snowmelt-induced flooding, as well as a generalizable approach applicable to other remote, high-elevation locations where high-density, long-term observational data are currently lacking. How snowmelt contributes to water dynamics and resources in cold regions is garnering greater attention. Our proposed model is thus timely perhaps, enabling more comprehensive assessments of snowmelt contributions to hydrological processes in those alpine regions characterized by seasonal snow cover.     

Application of snowmelt runoff model for water resource management

Snow‐covered areas (SCAs) are the fundamental source of water for the hydrological cycle for some region. Accurate measurements of river discharge from snowmelt can help manage much needed water required for hydropower generation and irrigation purposes. This study aims to apply the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) in the Upper Indus basin by the Astore River in northern Pakistan for the years 2000 to 2006. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data are used to generate the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region. Various variables (snow cover depletion curves (SCDCs), temperature and precipitation) and parameters (degree‐day factor, recession coefficient, runoff coefficients, time lag, critical temperature and temperature lapse rate) are used as input in the SRM. However, snow cover data are direct and an important input to the SRM. Satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to estimate the SCA. Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) algorithm is applied for snow cover mapping and to differentiate snow from other land features. Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of determination (R²) and volume difference (D_V) are used for quality assessment of the SRM. The results of the current research show that for the study years (2000–2006), the average value of R² is 0·87 and average volume difference D_V is 1·18%. The correlation coefficient between measured and computed runoff is 0·95. The results of the study further show that a high level of accuracy can be achieved during the snowmelt season. The simulation results endorse that the SRM in conjunction with MODIS snow cover product is very useful for water resource management in the Astore River and can be used for runoff forecasts in the Indus River basin in northern Pakistan. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the effects of climate change on the intensification of monsoonal‐driven stream discharge in a Himalayan watershed

Understanding potential hydrologic influences to continued climate change in Himalayan watersheds is important for management of transnational water resources. This study estimates the climate change impacts on hydrologic processes of the Kali Gandaki watershed from central Himalayan region using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Daily predicted stream discharge of the basin for 1981–95 following calibration was accurate with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency value >0.75. Sensitivity analysis of the hydrologic parameters showed the precipitation and temperature lapse rates as the most sensitive parameters to the stream discharge. To assess the influence of continued climate change on hydrologic processes, we modified the weather inputs for the model using average, minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation changes for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 derived from 16 General Circulation Models for 2080s. Mean annual stream discharge was approximately 39% higher than current values for the maximum temperature and precipitation changes of the A2 scenario and 22% less for minimum changes of the same scenario. Stream discharge was projected to be changed by +9% during monsoon season and by ?6% during pre‐monsoon season. Snowfall and snow melt were projected to be 30% and 29%, respectively, less than the current average for the maximum temperature and precipitation changes of the A2 scenario. Future simulations showed potential increase in monsoonal stream discharge associated with projected higher precipitation which when coupled with enhanced summer glacier melt might influence the downstream water availability of the basin. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating accumulated temperature and algorithm of snow cover calculation into the snowmelt runoff model

An accurate simulation of snowmelt runoff is of much importance in arid alpine regions. Data availability is usually an obstacle to use energy‐based snowmelt models for the snowmelt runoff simulation, and temperature‐based snowmelt models are more appealing in these regions. The snow runoff model is very popular nowadays, especially in the data sparse regions, because only temperature, precipitation and snow cover data are required for inputs to the model. However, this model uses average temperature as index, which cannot reflect the snowmelt simulation in the high altitude band. In this study, the snow runoff model is modified on the basis of accumulated active temperature. Snow cover calculation algorithm is added and is no longer needed as input but output. This makes the model able to simulate long‐time runoff and long‐time snow cover variation in every band. An examination of the improved model in the Manas River basin showed that the model is effective. It can reproduce the behaviour of the hydrology and can reflect the actual snow cover fluctuation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Melted snow volume control in the snowmelt runoff model using a snow water equivalent statistically based model

Snowmelt is an important component of the river discharge in mountain environments. In the past 40 years, the snowmelt dynamics has been mostly evaluated using degree‐day‐based models like the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). This model has no control on the volume of the melting snow, even if SRM includes as data input the snow‐covered area. This lack explains why the application of SRM may lead to inaccurate snowmelt volume estimations, even if the discharge volumes are accurately reproduced. Here we introduce in SRM the control on the melted snow volume and consider it in the determination of SRM parameters. The total snow volume, accumulated at the end of winter season, is evaluated by a snow water equivalent statistically based model, SWE‐SEM, and used as an estimate of the melting snow during the summer season. The benefit derived from the introduction of the control on the melting snow volume was investigated in the Mallero basin (northern Italy) for the 2003 and 2004 snow melting seasons. The analysis compares the model's results adopting different parameter sets, both considering and ignoring the control on the melting snow volume. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative importance of snow accumulation and monsoon rainfall data for estimating annual runoff,Jhelum basin,Pakistan

Abstract

The relative importance of data on winter snow accumulation and summer (monsoon) rainfall for estimating annual runoff in the Jhelum River basin, Punjab Himalaya, Pakistan, has been investigated. Strong correlations were found between point measurements of the annual maximum of snowpack water equivalent and of total winter precipitation in the Kunhar sub-basin, and total annual discharge. In addition, total winter snowfall showed a generally significant correlation with annual discharge. Elevation did not appear to play a strong role in determining the usefulness of these measurements, whereas location within the basin relative to large scale precipitation patterns did, in some cases. Monsoon rainfall appeared to be a very poor indicator of annual discharge. The results also suggest that the operation of a continental scale negative feedback mechanism between Eurasian snow cover and the Indian monsoon might be felt in this region of the Himalaya.     

Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change

The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km² and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3 °C) and four rainfall scenarios (P ? 10, P ? 5, P + 5 and P + 10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff in the Songhua River basin,China

Influences of climatic change on the components of global hydrological cycle, including runoff and evapotranspiration are significant in the mid‐ and high‐latitude basins. In this paper, the effect of climatic change on annual runoff is evaluated in a large basin—Songhua River basin which is located in the northeast of China. A method based on Budyko‐type equation is applied to separate the contributions of climatic factors to changes in annual runoff from 1960 to 2008, which are computed by multiplying their partial derivatives by the slopes of trends in climate factors. Furthermore, annual runoff changes are predicted under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with projections from five GCMs. The results showed that contribution of annual precipitation to annual runoff change was more significant than that of annual potential evapotranspiration in the Songhua River basin; and the factors contributing to annual potential evapotranspiration change were ranked as temperature, wind speed, vapour pressure, and sunshine duration. In the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, changes in annual runoff estimated with the GCM projections exhibited noticeable difference and ranged from ? 8·4 to ? 16·8 mm a^?1 (?5·77 to ? 11·53% of mean annual runoff). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981–2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET₀ was driven mainly by wind speed. ET₀ was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term change of seasonal snow cover and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim River basin,northwestern China

Spatio‐temporal variation of snow depth in the Tarim River basin has been studied by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on the data collected by special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) during the period from 1979 to 2005. The long‐term trend of snow depth and runoff was presented using the Mann‐Kendall non‐parametric test, and the effects of the variations of snow depth and climatic factors on runoff were analysed and discussed by means of the regression analysis. The results suggested that the snow depth variation on the entire basin was characterised by four patterns: all consistency, north–south contrast, north‐middle‐south contrast and complex. The first pattern accounting 39·13% of the total variance was dominant. The entire basin was mainly affected by one large‐scale weather system. However, the spatial and temporal differences also existed among the different regions in the basin. The significant snow depth changes occurred mainly in the Aksu River basin with the below‐normal snow depth anomalies in the 1980s and the above‐normal snow depth anomalies in the 1990s. The long‐term trend of snow depth was significant in the northwestern, western and southern parts of the basin, whereas the long‐term trend of runoff was significant in the northwestern and northeastern parts. The regression analysis revealed that the runoff of the rivers replenished by snow melt water and rainfall was related primarily to the summer precipitation, followed by the summer temperature or the maximum snow depth in the cold season. Our results suggest that snow is not the principal factor that contributes to the runoff increase in headstreams, although there was a slow increase in snow depth. It is the climatic factors that are responsible for the steady and continuous water increase in the headstreams. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the hydrological response of debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers to present climatic conditions in the semiarid Andes of central Chile

We apply the process‐based, distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH glacio‐hydrological model to a glacierized catchment (19% glacierized) in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. The semiarid Andes provides vital freshwater resources to valleys in Chile and Argentina, but only few glacio‐hydrological modelling studies have been conducted, and its dominant hydrological processes remain poorly understood. The catchment contains two debris‐free glaciers reaching down to 3900 m asl (Bello and Yeso glaciers) and one debris‐covered avalanche‐fed glacier reaching to 3200 m asl (Piramide Glacier). Our main objective is to compare the mass balance and runoff contributions of both glacier types under current climatic conditions. We use a unique dataset of field measurements collected over two ablation seasons combined with the distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH model that includes physically oriented parameterizations of snow and ice ablation, gravitational distribution of snow, snow albedo evolution and the ablation of debris‐covered ice. Model outputs indicate that while the mass balance of Bello and Yeso glaciers is mostly explained by temperature gradients, the Piramide Glacier mass balance is governed by debris thickness and avalanches and has a clear non‐linear profile with elevation as a result. Despite the thermal insulation effect of the debris cover, the mass balance and contribution to runoff from debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers are similar in magnitude, mainly because of elevation differences. However, runoff contributions are distinct in time and seasonality with ice melt starting approximately four weeks earlier from the debris‐covered glacier, what is of relevance for water resources management. At the catchment scale, snowmelt is the dominant contributor to runoff during both years. However, during the driest year of our simulations, ice melt contributes 42 ± 8% and 67 ± 6% of the annual and summer runoff, respectively. Sensitivity analyses show that runoff is most sensitive to temperature and precipitation gradients, melt factors and debris cover thickness. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological responses of small-scale catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

The hydrological response of catchments with different rainfall patterns was assessed to understand the availability of blue and green water and the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands. Monthly discharge of three small-scale catchments was simulated, calibrated, and validated with a dataset of more than 30 years. Different temperature and precipitation scenarios were used to compare the hydrological responses in all three catchments. Results indicate that runoff reacts disproportionately strongly to precipitation and temperature changes: a 24% increase in precipitation led to a 50% increase in average annual runoff, and an average annual rainfall–runoff ratio that was 20% higher. An increase in temperature led to an increase of evapotranspiration and resulted in a decrease in the rainfall–runoff ratio. But a comparison of combined results with different climate change scenarios shows that downstream stakeholders can expect a higher share of available blue water in the future.