综合指数影响评价模型在地下水防污性能评价中的应用

针对DRASTIC模型在地下水防污性能评价中存在的不足,提出模型的改进方法,在此基础上构建一套基于DRASTIC模型的综合指数影响评价（DRAICQ）模型,并应用于淮河流域中部某市地下水防污性能评价的实例研究中,绘制了研究区地下水防污性能评价分区图。结果表明：DRAICQ模型的计算结果更符合研究区的实际情况,评价效果较好;研究区地下水防污性能评价分区图对该区制定地下水防污措施具有重要的参考指导作用。     

A review of the application of the MUSLE model worldwide

Abstract

The sediment yield model of the MUSLE (modified universal soil loss equation) is applied extensively throughout the world, but different performances have been reported of its success relative to measured data. A review of all the available literature is presented to assess the application of the model under different conditions and, ultimately, make a comprehensive judgement on the different aspects to allow readers to adjust their further research. A review of 49 papers showed the variable accuracy of the model, which depends on the manner of calculation and determination of the input and output, and the study time and space scales. There were differences in land use, in correspondence of the physiographic characteristics with those of the original conditions of model development, and even in the experience of researchers in applying the model. The results also show the need to consider the original application of the model, as proposed by its developers, to achieve comparable results.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Sadeghi, S.H.R., et al., 2014. A review of the application of the MUSLE model worldwide. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 365–375.     

Assessing parameter identifiability for multiple performance criteria to constrain model parameters

ABSTRACT

Reliable simulations of hydrological models require that model parameters are precisely identified. In constraining model parameters to small ranges, high parameter identifiability is achieved. In this study, it is investigated how precisely model parameters can be constrained in relation to a set of contrasting performance criteria. For this, model simulations with identical parameter samplings are carried out with a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to three contrasting catchments in Germany (lowland, mid-range mountains, alpine regions). Ten performance criteria including statistical metrics and signature measures are calculated for each model simulation. Based on the parameter identifiability that is computed separately for each performance criterion, model parameters are constrained to smaller ranges individually for each catchment. An iterative repetition of model simulations with successively constrained parameter ranges leads to more precise parameter identifiability and improves model performance. Based on these results, a more consistent handling of model parameters is achieved for model calibration.     

Probabilistic seismic demand model for pounding risk assessment

Earthquake‐induced pounding of adjacent structures can cause severe structural damage, and advanced probabilistic approaches are needed to obtain a reliable estimate of the risk of impact. This study aims to develop an efficient and accurate probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) for pounding risk assessment between adjacent buildings, which is suitable for use within modern performance‐based engineering frameworks. In developing a PSDM, different choices can be made regarding the intensity measures (IMs) to be used, the record selection, the analysis technique applied for estimating the system response at increasing IM levels, and the model to be employed for describing the response statistics given the IM. In the present paper, some of these choices are analyzed and evaluated first by performing an extensive parametric study for the adjacent buildings modeled as linear single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems, and successively by considering more complex nonlinear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom building models. An efficient and accurate PSDM is defined using advanced intensity measures and a bilinear regression model for the response samples obtained by cloud analysis. The results of the study demonstrate that the proposed PSDM allows accurate estimates of the risk of pounding to be obtained while limiting the number of simulations required. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

遥感图像震害特征组合增强模型及其算法实现

在高分辨率遥感图像中, 不同震害损毁程度的建筑物呈现不同的图像特征, 鉴于此本文提出一种利用遥感图像多特征分析建筑物损毁程度的检测方法. 以2015年尼泊尔M_S8.1地震为例, 结合震后高分一号卫星全色遥感图像和城市道路矢量数据提供的街区信息, 以建筑物街区为单元进行图像纹理提取和局部空间统计等多类别图像特征参数分析, 并构建多特征分类模型, 将震后建筑物街区划分为基本完好、 部分损毁和严重损毁等3个类别. 试验结果表明, 本文提取的参数能够有效地表征损毁建筑物的图像特征, 而且建筑物震害损毁检测精度较高. 该方法可用于建筑物震害损毁信息的快速提取, 为震后应急救援提供指导; 同时还可为我国自主研发高分卫星遥感数据在地震灾害信息提取中的应用提供技术参考与方法借鉴.     

Lee生物光学模型在不同水体组分特性下的适用性

辐射传输模型和生物光学模型均可用于模拟水体遥感反射率.前者模拟精度高,但计算复杂.不利于水质参数的反演;后者简便易反演,但在浑浊水体中的模拟精度还有待进一步检验.本文通过设计大量不同组分浓度组成的水体,以辐射传输模型(即Hydrolisht模型)模拟结果为真值,对生物光学模型(即Lee模型)模拟二类水体遥感反射率的精度...     

A semi‐theoretical model of canopy rainfall interception for a broad‐leaved tree

Through a series of simulation experiments in the laboratory on the broad‐leaved tree Acer mono Maxim, we obtain interception datasets of individual events under different rainfall intensities and leaf area indexes (LAIs). Based on the data, the relationship between rainfall intensity and maximum interception of per unit LAI is quantified. The variation of interception with canopy wetness index is also identified. Hence, an interception model, in which interception is calculated using rainfall intensity and LAI, is constructed with consideration of canopy wetness. Finally, according to the validation experiments, it is concluded that the precision of the model is 92·7%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic model for daily subsurface CO2 concentration and related soil respiration

Near-surface soil CO₂ gas-phase concentration (C) and concomitant incident rainfall (P_i) and through-fall (P_t) depths were collected at different locations in a temperate pine forest every 30 min during the 2005 and 2006 growing seasons (and then averaged to the daily timescale). At the daily scale, C temporal variations were well described by a sequence of monotonically decreasing functions interrupted by large positive jumps induced by rainfall events. A stochastic model was developed to link rainfall statistics responsible for these jumps to near-surface C dynamics. The model accounted for the effect of daily rainfall variability, both in terms of timing and amount of water, and permitted an analytical derivation of the C probability density function (pdf) using the parameters of the rainfall pdf. Given the observed positive correlation between daily C and soil CO₂ fluxes to the atmosphere (F_s), the effects of various rainfall regimes on the statistics of F_s can be deduced from the behavior of C under different climatic conditions. The predictions from this analytical model are consistent with flux measurements reported in manipulative experiments that varied rainfall amount and frequency.     

Numerical models of RC elements and their impacts on seismic performance assessment

This paper aims to provide a guideline for numerical modeling of reinforced concrete (RC) frame elements for the seismic performance assessment of a structure. Several types of numerical models of RC frame elements are available in nonlinear structural analysis packages. Because the numerical models are formulated based on different assumptions and theories, the models' accuracy, computing time, and applicability vary, which poses a great difficulty to practicing engineers and limits their confidence in the analysis results. In this study, the applicability of five representative numerical models of RC frame elements is evaluated through comparison with 320 experimental results available from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research column database. The accuracy of a numerical model is evaluated according to its initial stiffness, peak strength, and energy dissipation capacity of the global responses. In addition, a parametric study of a cantilever RC column subjected to earthquake excitation is carried out to systematically evaluate the consequence of the adopted numerical models on the maximum inelastic structural responses. It is found from this study that the accuracy of the numerical models is sensitive to shear force demand–capacity ratio. If a structural period is short and the structure is shear critical, the use of numerical models that can explicitly capture the shear deformation and failure is suggested. If the structural period is long, the selection of a numerical model does not greatly influence the global response of the structure. The paper also presents statistical parameters of each numerical model, which can be used for probabilistic seismic performance assessment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new fish-based multi-metric assessment index for cyprinid streams in the Iranian Caspian Sea Basin

A major issue for water resource management is the assessment of environmental degradation of lotic ecosystems. The overall aim of this study is to develop a multi-metric fish index for the cyprinid streams of the Caspian Sea Basin (MMICS) in Iran. As species diversity and composition as well as population structure in the studied streams are different to other regions, there is a substantial need to develop a new fish index. We sampled fish and environmental data of 102 sites in medium sized streams. We analysed human pressures at different spatial scales and determined applicable fish metrics showing a response to human pressures. In total, five structural and functional types of metrics (i.e. biodiversity, habitat, reproduction, trophic level and water quality sensitivity) were considered. In addition, we used 29 criteria describing major anthropogenic human pressures at sampling sites and generated a regional pressure index (RPI) that accounted for potential effects of multiple human pressures.For the MMICS development, we first defined reference sites (least disturbed) and secondly quantified differences of fish metrics between reference and impaired sites. We used a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) to describe metric responses to natural environmental differences in least disturbed conditions. By including impaired sites, the residual distributions of these models described the response range of each metric to human pressures, independently of natural environmental influence.Finally, seven fish metrics showed the best ability to discriminate between impaired and reference sites. The multi-metric fish index performed well in discriminating human pressure classes, giving a significant negative linear response to a gradient of the RPI. These methods can be used for further development of a standardised monitoring tool to assess the ecological status and trends in biological condition for streams of the whole country, considering its complex and diverse geology and climate.     

既有钢筋混凝土框架结构的多指标云模型地震损伤评估

目前的既有钢混结构地震损伤研究没有同时考虑不同抗震设计规范差异和耐久性两个因素对结构抗震性能的影响,且损伤指标较简单,在动力损伤分析中也存在局限。基于云模型的特点,提出了包括弹塑性耗能差率、刚度损伤指数、层间位移角和顶点位移角的多元结构损伤状态综合评估方法,能够同时考虑结构各损伤指数的随机性和模糊性。考虑不同版本抗震设计规范造成的结构性能差异和耐久性下降对结构性能的影响,设计3个典型五层钢混框架结构,进行增量动力分析,验证损伤评估方法的准确性。结果表明：随着抗震规范版本的更新,结构的损伤程度有适当减轻;同一结构的损伤程度因混凝土碳化作用先减轻后加重;采用弹塑性耗能差率表征既有结构的地震损伤效果优于刚度损伤指数;基于多指标云模型损伤评估方法获得的云模型综合隶属度和综合损伤值能够更加细化和精确地描述结构损伤状态。     

Error analysis for the evaluation of model performance: rainfall–runoff event summary variables

This paper provides a procedure for the evaluation of model performance for rainfall–runoff event summary variables, such as total discharge or peak runoff. The procedure is based on the analysis of model errors, defined as the differences between observed values and values predicted by a simulation model. Model errors can (i) indicate whether and where the model can be improved, (ii) be used to measure the performance of a model, and (iii) be used to compare model simulations. In this paper, both statistical and graphical methods are used to characterize model errors. We explore model recalibration by relating model errors to the model predictions, and to external, independent variables. The R‐5 catchment data sets that we used in this study include summary variables for 72 rainfall–runoff events. The simulations used in this study were previously conducted with the quasi‐physically based rainfall–runoff model QPBRRM for 11 different characterizations of the R‐5 catchment, each with increasing information or a refined spatial discretization of the overland flow planes. This paper is about proposing model diagnostics and not about procedures for using diagnostics for model modification. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad (30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M _S ≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude 4.5 ≤ M _S ≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”. For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p ) not on the following main shocks magnitude M _f suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region.     

A remote sensing model of CO2 flux for wheat and studying of regional distribution

A model for calculating CO₂ flux in the wheat field and an algorithm for estimating CO₂ flux in the mejonal scale were presented using the remote sensing data and supplementary micpo-met~orological data. First of all a-longertenn measurement wae carried out during winter wheat growing period in Yucheng Experimental Station udng the spectmradiometer system, the thermal infrared radiometer system, the Bowen-ratio device as well as the eddy-correlation device. Two kinds of issues concerning remote sensing and CO₂ flux can be obtained. Based on the obeervations a remote sensing model was estabilished. Then when the NOAA-AVHRR passed over the experimental area simultaneous measurements were carried out with the satellites. A regional distribution image for CO₂ flux over wheat canopy in North China (500×500 km²) was made using the supplementary ground data and NOAA-AVHRR remote sensing data which was calibrated by the synchronous observation. The sources and sinks for CO₂ fluxes in the region can be seen obviously. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 49671058, 49890330)     

基于决策树的矿产资源潜力制图模型

文中提出了一种基于决策树的矿产资源潜力制图模型.应用该模型生成矿产资源潜力分布图分三步完成:第一步,以找矿标志的空间分布图和已知矿点空间分布图为依据,提取训练样本;第二步,根据训练样本构建决策树矿产资源潜力制图模型;第三步,生成矿产资源潜力分布图.本文以新疆北部阿尔泰多金属成矿带为研究区,比较了该模型与合成有矿可信度等模型的找矿靶区圈定结果.两种模型的靶区圈定结果基本相同,证明了决策树矿产资源潜力制图模型的有效性.     

A 2D hydrodynamic model for shallow water flows with significant infiltration losses

Infiltration losses may be significant and warrant proper incorporation into mathematical models for river floods in arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall-induced surface runoffs in watersheds and swashes on beaches. Here, a depth-averaged two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is presented for such processes based on the cell-centred finite volume method on unstructured meshes, with the full Green-Ampt equation evaluating the infiltration rate. A local time stepping strategy is employed along with thread parallelization with Open Multi-processing and high-performance computing to reduce model run time and therefore facilitate applications for large-scale processes. The numerical solutions generally agree with the experimental and field-measured data for typical cases with significant infiltration losses. The case study shows that neglecting infiltration leads to an overestimated discharge hydrograph, which cannot be compensated by means of varied bed resistance as estimated by Manning roughness, and the infiltration parameters play disparate roles in modifying shallow flows compared with Manning roughness. In addition, infiltration affects bed shear stress, which in turn modifies the critical bed sediment size that could be initiated for incipient motion by the flow and therefore needs to be properly accounted for when sediment transport and morphological evolution are to be resolved.     

Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment

Despite their acknowledged limitations, lumped conceptual models continue to be used widely for climate‐change impact assessments. Therefore, it is important to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties in water resource projections arising from the choice of model calibration period, model structure, and non‐uniqueness of model parameter sets. In addition, external sources of uncertainty linked to choice of emission scenario, climate model ensemble member, downscaling technique(s), and so on, should be acknowledged. To this end, the CATCHMOD conceptual water balance model was used to project changes in daily flows for the River Thames at Kingston using parameter sets derived from different subsets of training data, including the full record. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to explore parameter stability and identifiability in the context of historic climate variability. Parameters reflecting rainfall acceptance at the soil surface in simpler model structures were found to be highly sensitive to the training period, implying that climatic variability does lead to variability in the hydrologic behaviour of the Thames basin. Non‐uniqueness of parameters for more complex model structures results in relatively small variations in projected annual mean flow quantiles for different training periods compared with the choice of emission scenario. However, this was not the case for subannual flow statistics, where uncertainty in flow changes due to equifinality was higher in winter than summer, and comparable in magnitude to the uncertainty of the emission scenario. Therefore, it is recommended that climate‐change impact assessments using conceptual water balance models should routinely undertake sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainties due to parameter instability, identifiability and non‐uniqueness. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

湖泊水环境模糊数学评价模型及其在富营养化排序中的应用

本文根据模糊水文学关于水体“清洁”与“污染”之间无明确界面,在识别过程中具有模糊性的论点,提出湖泊水环境评价的模糊数学模型。应用此模型对我国12个湖泊富营养化污染状况进行排序,结果与实际相符,文中提出的评价模型,原则上也适用于其他环境领域的评价工作。     

An improvement to linear‐elastic procedures for seismic performance assessment

An improved linear‐elastic analysis procedure is developed in this paper as a simple approximate method for displacement‐based seismic assessment of the existing buildings. The procedure is mainly based on reducing the stiffness of structural members that are expected to respond in the inelastic range in a single global iteration step. Modal spectral displacement demands are determined from the equal displacement rule. Response predictions obtained from the proposed procedure are evaluated comparatively by using the results of benchmark nonlinear response history analysis, and both the conventional and the multi‐mode pushover analyses. In comparative evaluations, a twelve‐story RC plane frame and a six‐story unsymmetrical‐plan RC frame are employed by using 91 ground motion components. It is observed that the proposed procedure estimates the flexural deformation demands in deformation‐controlled members and the shear forces in force‐controlled members with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Significance of stemflow in groundwater recharge. 2: A cylindrical infiltration model for evaluating the stemflow contribution to groundwater recharge

A primary model for evaluating the effect of stemflow on groundwater recharge has been developed. The model, a cylindrical infiltration model (CI model), is based on the infiltration area of stemflow-induced water instead of canopy projected area for determining the stemflow inputs to the soil surface. The estimated ratio of recharge rate by stemflow to the total recharge rate determined with this model agrees closely with values obtained from the mass balance of chloride in subsurface waters. This primary model is considered to be useful for estimating the effect of stemflow on groundwater recharge.