Cloud to IDA: Efficient fragility assessment with limited scaling

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) leads to curves expressed in terms of structural response versus intensity, commonly known as the IDA curves. It is known that implementation of IDA usually involves significant computational effort and most often significant scaling of the original records to various intensity levels. Employing as the performance variable the critical demand to capacity ratio (DCR) throughout the structure, which is equal to unity at the onset of the limit state, facilitates the identification of the intensity values at the onset of a desired limit state and hence the implementation of the IDA procedure. Employing the structural response to un‐scaled records and the corresponding regression‐based response predictions (a.k.a., the “Cloud Analysis”) helps in identifying the range of intensity values corresponding to demand to capacity ratio values in the vicinity of unity. The Cloud to IDA procedure for structural fragility assessment is proposed on the premise of exploiting the Cloud Analysis results to obtain the IDA curves both with minimum number of analyses and minimum amount of scaling. The transverse frame of a shear‐critical 7‐story older RC building in Van Nuys, CA, which is modeled in Opensees with fiber‐section considering the flexural‐shear‐axial interactions and the bar slip, is employed as a case study. It is demonstrated, by comparing the results to IDA and other state of the art non‐linear dynamic procedures based on no scaling or spectral‐shape‐compatible scaling, that the Cloud to IDA procedure leads to reliable results in terms of structural fragility and risk for the prescribed limit state.     

Prediction of the median IDA curve by employing a limited number of ground motion records

A methodology has been proposed which can be used to reduce the number of ground motion records needed for the reliable prediction of the median seismic response of structures by means of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). This methodology is presently limited to predictions of the median IDA curve only. The reduction in the number of ground motion records needed to predict the median IDA curve is achieved by introducing a precedence list of ground motion records. The determination of such a list is an optimization problem, which is solved in the paper by means of (1) a genetic algorithm and (2) a proposed simple procedure. The seismic response of a simple, computationally non‐demanding structural model has been used as input data for the optimization problem. The presented example is a three‐storey‐reinforced concrete building, subjected to two sets of ground motion records, one a free‐field set and the other a near‐field set. It is shown that the median IDA curves can be predicted with acceptable accuracy by employing only four ground motion records instead of the 24 or 30 records, which are the total number of ground motion records for the free‐field and near‐field sets, respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate incremental dynamic analysis using the modal pushover analysis procedure

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)—a procedure developed for accurate estimation of seismic demand and capacity of structures—requires non‐linear response history analysis of the structure for an ensemble of ground motions, each scaled to many intensity levels, selected to cover the entire range of structural response—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability. Recognizing that IDA of practical structures is computationally extremely demanding, an approximate procedure based on the modal pushover analysis procedure is developed. Presented are the IDA curves and limit state capacities for the SAC‐Los Angeles 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐storey buildings computed by the exact and approximate procedures for an ensemble of 20 ground motions. These results demonstrate that the MPA‐based approximate procedure reduces the computational effort by a factor of 30 (for the 9‐storey building), at the same time providing results to a useful degree of accuracy over the entire range of responses—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability—provided a proper hysteretic model is selected for modal SDF systems. The accuracy of the approximate procedure does not deteriorate for 9‐ and 20‐storey buildings, although their dynamics is more complex, involving several ‘modes’ of vibration. For all three buildings, the accuracy of the MPA‐based approximate procedure is also satisfactory for estimating the structural capacities for the limit states of immediate occupancy, collapse prevention, and global dynamic instability. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic performance assessment of low‐ductility reinforced concrete frames retrofitted with dissipative braces

The paper illustrates a probabilistic methodology for assessing the vulnerability of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with limited ductility capacity retrofitted by means of dissipative braces. The aim is to highlight the most important parameters controlling the capacity of these coupled systems and specific aspects concerning the response uncertainties. The proposed methodology is based on the use of local engineering demand parameters for monitoring the seismic response and on the development of component and system fragility curves before and after the retrofit. In the first part of the paper, the methodology is illustrated by highlighting its advantages with respect to the existing approaches. Then, its capability and effectiveness are tested by considering a benchmark two‐dimensional RC frame designed for gravity‐loads only. The frame is retrofitted by introducing elasto‐plastic dissipative braces designed for different levels of base shear capacity. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the methodology in describing the changes in the response and in the failure modalities before and after the retrofit, for different retrofit levels. Moreover, the retrofit effectiveness is evaluated by introducing proper synthetic parameters describing the fragility curves and by stressing the importance of employing local engineering demand parameters (EDPs) rather than global EDPs in the seismic risk evaluation of coupled systems consisting in low‐ductility RC frames and dissipative braces. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incremental dynamic analysis with consideration of modeling uncertainties

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been extended by introducing a set of structural models in addition to the set of ground motion records which is employed in IDA analysis in order to capture record‐to‐record variability. The set of structural models reflects epistemic (modeling) uncertainties, and is determined by utilizing the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty on seismic response parameters are therefore considered in extended IDA analysis. The proposed method has been applied to an example of the four‐storey‐reinforced concrete frame, for which pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed at the ELSA Laboratory, Ispra. The influence of epistemic uncertainty on the seismic response parameters is presented in terms of summarized IDA curves and dispersion measures. The results of extended IDA analysis are compared with the results of IDA analysis, and the sensitivity of the seismic response parameters to the input random variable using the LHS method is discussed. It is shown that epistemic uncertainty does not have significant influence on the seismic response parameters in the range far from collapse, but could have a significant influence on collapse capacity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

自适应顺序采样Kriging方法及其在增量动力分析中的应用

复杂结构的增量动力分析（IDA）对于结构的抗震设计和分析有着重要意义,但需对结构进行大量的非线性时程分析,计算量成本高。本文结合Kriging元模型和自适应顺序采样并用于结构增量动力分析以提高其计算效率和精度,其中:Kriging元模型用于预测结构的地震响应,顺序采样根据候选点的熵值补充非线性时程分析逐步增加Kriging模型的预测精度。借助本文方法,IDA曲线可通过少量的时程分析实现较高的精度。为了校验本文方法的可行性与有效性,对二层和九层钢框架结构模型应用直接IDA、hunt&fill方法和本文方法分析并比较了上述三种方法的计算误差、计算效率和IDA曲线差别。在此基础上本文将自适应顺序采样Kriging方法用于考虑结构不确定性参数的IDA分析,并和传统的蒙特卡洛方法进行比较。结果表明:该方法具有较高的计算效率,可以保证IDA曲线的精度。     

Direct estimation of the seismic demand and capacity of oscillators with multi‐linear static pushovers through IDA

SPO2IDA is introduced, a software tool that is capable of recreating the seismic behaviour of oscillators with complex quadrilinear backbones. It provides a direct connection between the static pushover (SPO) curve and the results of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), a computer‐intensive procedure that offers thorough demand and capacity prediction capability by using a series of nonlinear dynamic analyses under a suitably scaled suite of ground motion records. To achieve this, the seismic behaviour of numerous single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems is investigated through IDA. The oscillators have a wide range of periods and feature pinching hysteresis with backbones ranging from simple bilinear to complex quadrilinear with an elastic, a hardening and a negative‐stiffness segment plus a final residual plateau that terminates with a drop to zero strength. An efficient method is introduced to treat the backbone shape by summarizing the analysis results into the 16, 50 and 84% fractile IDA curves, reducing them to a few shape parameters and finding simpler backbones that reproduce the IDA curves of complex ones. Thus, vast economies are realized while important intuition is gained on the role of the backbone shape to the seismic performance. The final product is SPO2IDA, an accurate, spreadsheet‐level tool for performance‐based earthquake engineering that can rapidly estimate demands and limit‐state capacities, strength reduction R‐factors and inelastic displacement ratios for any SDOF system with such a quadrilinear SPO curve. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of MPA to estimate probability of collapse of structures

This paper develops a modal pushover analysis‐ (MPA) based approximate procedure to quantify the collapse potential of structural systems. The computationally demanding incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of the structural system is avoided by MPA of the structure in conjunction with empirical equations for the collapse strength ratio for the first‐mode single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDF) system; higher modes of vibration play essentially no role in estimating the ground motion intensity required to cause collapse of the structure. Presented are collapse fragility curves for 6‐, 9‐, and 20‐story regular special moment‐resisting teel frames computed by the exact and approximate procedures, demonstrating that the MPA‐based approximate procedure requires only a small fraction (1% in one example) of the computational effort inherent in exact IDA and still achieves highly accurate results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance‐based optimum seismic design of reinforced concrete structures

A fully automated design methodology based on nonlinear response history analysis is proposed for the optimum seismic design of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The conventional trial‐and‐error process is replaced by a structural optimization algorithm that serves as a search engine capable of locating the most efficient design in terms of cost and performance. Two variations of the proposed design methodology are introduced. The first approach treats the optimum design problem in a deterministic manner, while in the second variation the optimum design is sought in the framework of a reliability‐based optimization problem. The reliability‐based approach seems to be a more rational procedure since more meaningful design criteria that correlate better with the performance‐based design concept can be adopted. Thus, the practice of using the mean annual frequency of a limit‐state being exceeded to assess the candidate designs is compared with the use of deterministic criteria. Both formulations take into consideration the structural response for a number of limit‐states, from serviceability to collapse prevention. The proposed design procedure is specifically tailored to the design of RC structures, where a preliminary design step of generating tables of concrete sections is introduced. In order to handle the large size of the tables, the concept of multi‐database cascade optimization is implemented. The final design has to comply with the provisions of European design codes. The proposed methodology allows for a significant reduction of the direct construction cost combined with improved control of the seismic performance under earthquake loading. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

增量动力弹塑性分析方法的改进及其应用

本文主要对增量动力弹塑性分析(IDA)方法的两个方面作了改进:(1)以增量动力弹塑性分析方法的基本原理为基础,以快速非线性时程分析(FNA)方法为计算工具,形成快速增量动力弹塑性分析(FIDA)方法。(2)仅以IDA分析结果为基础,建立地震易损性曲线及地震破坏概率计算的离散型式。为了校验本文方法的可行性与有效性,应用增量动力弹塑性分析、模态增量动力弹塑性分析与快速增量动力弹塑性分析计算一个14层筒中筒结构试验模型,比较了用上述三种方法的计算误差与计算效率,比较了传统方法与本文方法计算该模型结构的地震易损性曲线的差别。     

Development of seismic fragility surfaces for reinforced concrete buildings by means of nonlinear time‐history analysis

Fragility curves are generally developed using a single parameter to relate the level of shaking to the expected structural damage. The main goal of this work is to use several parameters to characterize the earthquake ground motion. The fragility curves will, therefore, become surfaces when the ground motion is represented by two parameters. To this end, the roles of various strong‐motion parameters on the induced damage in the structure are compared through nonlinear time‐history numerical calculations. A robust structural model that can be used to perform numerous nonlinear dynamic calculations, with an acceptable cost, is adopted. The developed model is based on the use of structural elements with concentrated nonlinear damage mechanics and plasticity‐type behavior. The relations between numerous ground‐motion parameters, characterizing different aspects of the shaking, and the computed damage are analyzed and discussed. Natural and synthetic accelerograms were chosen/computed based on a consideration of the magnitude‐distance ranges of design earthquakes. A complete methodology for building fragility surfaces based on the damage calculation through nonlinear numerical analysis of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems is proposed. The fragility surfaces are built to represent the probability that a given damage level is reached (or exceeded) for any given level of ground motion characterized by the two chosen parameters. The results show that an increase from one to two ground‐motion parameters leads to a significant reduction in the scatter in the fragility analysis and allows the uncertainties related to the effect of the second ground‐motion parameter to be accounted for within risk assessments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simplified non‐linear seismic analysis of infilled reinforced concrete frames

The N2 method for simplified non‐linear seismic analysis has been extended in order to make it applicable to infilled reinforced concrete frames. Compared to the simple basic variant of the N2 method, two important differences apply. A multi‐linear idealization of the pushover curve, which takes into account the strength degradation which occurs after the infill fails, has to be made, and specific reduction factors, developed in a companion paper, have to be used for the determination of inelastic spectra. It is shown that the N2 method can also be used for the determination of approximate summarized IDA curves. The proposed method was applied to two test buildings. The results were compared with the results obtained by non‐linear dynamic analyses for three sets of ground motions, and a reasonable accuracy was demonstrated. A similar extension of the N2 method can be made to any structural system, provided that an appropriate specific R–µ–T relation is available. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct displacement‐based seismic assessment procedure for multi‐span reinforced concrete bridges with single‐column piers

In Italy, as in other high seismic risk countries, many bridges, nowadays deemed ‘strategic’ for civil protection interventions after an earthquake, were built without antiseismic criteria, and therefore their seismic assessment is mandatory. Accordingly, the development of a seismic assessment procedure that gives reliable results and, at the same time, is sufficiently simple to be applied on a large population of bridges in a short time is very useful. In this paper, a displacement‐based procedure for the assessment of multi‐span RC bridges, satisfying these requirements and called direct displacement‐based assessment (DDBA), is proposed. Based on the direct displacement‐based design previously developed by Priestley et al., DDBA idealizes the multi DOF bridge structure as an equivalent SDOF system and hence defines a safety factor in terms of displacement. DDBA was applied to hypothetical bridge configurations. The same structures were analyzed also using standard force‐based approach. The reliability of the two methods was checked performing IDA with response spectrum compatible accelerograms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Damage evaluation models of reinforced concrete buildings based on the damage statistics and simulated strong motions during the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu earthquake

We have tried to estimate the yield shear strengths of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings based on the damage statistics in Kobe surveyed after the Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake of 1995 and the non‐linear response analyses for synthetic waveforms calculated from a complex seismic source and a three‐dimensional basin structure. First, a set of building models that represented the RC building stock in Kobe was constructed and plausible non‐linear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom models with four different numbers of stories were created based on the current seismic code and construction practice. For response analysis the damage criterion and the strength distribution should be assumed a priori. When the damage ratios for these standard models were calculated it was found that the damage ratios were so high that we had to increase the average yield strengths in order to match the calculated damage ratios to those observed. After searching the best models it was found that the estimated average yield strengths should be much higher than those based on the code, especially for low‐rise buildings. Using this set of building models we succeeded in reproducing the belt‐shaped area with high damage ratios in Kobe. One can apply the proposed methodology to different countries if there is enough damage data, strong motion records, and building statistics. If there is sparse damage data at several locations only, then our models can be adjusted to reproduce observed damage data and used for damage prediction as a first‐order approximation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new method to discriminate between a valid IP response and EM coupling effects

The problem of discrimination between a valid induced polarization (IP) response and electromagnetic (EM) coupling effects is considered and an effective solution is provided. First, a finite dimensional approximation to the Cole‐Cole model is investigated. Using the least‐squares approach, the parameters of the approximate model are obtained. Next, based on the analysis of overvoltage, a finite dimensional structure of the IP model is produced. Using this overvoltage‐based structure, a specific finite dimensional approximation of the Cole‐Cole model is proposed. Summarizing the analysis of the finite dimensional IP model, it is concluded that the proposed IP model, which fits the field data much better than the traditional Cole‐Cole model, is essentially an RC‐circuit. From a circuit‐analysis point of view, it is well known that an electromagnetic effect can be described by an RL‐circuit. The simulation results on experimental data support this conception. According to this observation, a new method to discriminate between a valid IP response and EM coupling effects is proposed as follows: (i) use a special finite dimensional model for IP–EM systems; (ii) obtain the parameters for the model using a least‐squares approach; (iii) separate RC‐type terms and RL‐type terms – the first models the IP behaviour, the latter represents the EM part. Simulation on experimental data shows that the method is very simple and effective.     

Fast performance uncertainty estimation via pushover and approximate IDA

Approximate methods based on the static pushover are introduced to estimate the seismic performance uncertainty of structures having non‐deterministic modeling parameters. At their basis lies the use of static pushover analysis to approximate Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) and estimate the demand and capacity epistemic uncertainty. As a testbed we use a nine‐storey steel frame having beam hinges with uncertain moment–rotation relationships. Their properties are fully described by six, randomly distributed, parameters. Using Monte Carlo simulation with Latin hypercube sampling, a characteristic ensemble of structures is created. The Static Pushover to IDA (SPO2IDA) software is used to approximate the IDA capacity curve from the appropriately post‐processed results of the static pushover. The approximate IDAs allow the evaluation of the seismic demand and capacity for the full range of limit‐states, even close to global dynamic instability. Moment‐estimating techniques such as Rosenblueth's point estimating method and the first‐order, second‐moment (FOSM) method are adopted as simple alternatives to obtain performance statistics with only a few simulations. The pushover is shown to be a tool that combined with SPO2IDA and moment‐estimating techniques can supply the uncertainty in the seismic performance of first‐mode‐dominated buildings for the full range of limit‐states, thus replacing semi‐empirical or code‐tabulated values (e.g. FEMA‐350), often adopted in performance‐based earthquake engineering. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of lateral force contribution of boundary elements in steel plate shear wall systems

Steel plate shear walls (SPSWs) are used as lateral force‐resisting systems in new and retrofitted structures in high‐seismic regions. Various international codes recommend the design of SPSWs assuming the entire lateral load to be resisted by the infill plates. Such a design procedure results in significant overstrength leading to uneconomical and inefficient use of materials. This study is focused on the estimation of contribution of boundary elements in resisting the lateral force considering their interaction with the web plates of SPSW systems. Initially, the relative contribution of web plates and boundary frames is computed for a single‐bay single‐story frame with varying rigidity and end connections of boundary elements. Nonlinear static analyses are carried out for the analytical models in OpenSees platform to quantify this contribution. Later, this study is extended to the code‐based designed three‐story, six‐story, and nine‐story SPSWs of varying aspect ratios. Based on the results obtained, a new design procedure is proposed taking the lateral strengths of the boundary frames into account. Nonlinear time‐history analyses are conducted for 40 recorded ground motions representing the design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake hazard levels to compare the interstory and residual drift response and yield mechanisms of SPSWs designed as per current practice and the proposed methodology. Finally, an expression has been proposed to predict the lateral force contribution of the infill plate and the boundary frame of SPSWs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic risk evaluation of RC bridge structures

In this work a probabilistic methodology, recently developed by Cornell and co‐workers for seismic risk assessment of moment‐resisting steel frames, is investigated for possible applications to RC bridge structures. The basic theory is first illustrated; it is characterized by a remarkably simple but accurate mathematical formulation and by a light computational effort to estimate the risk. A simple extension to account for uncertainties in the mechanical parameters is then proposed. The methodology is applied to an existing RC bridge. The study has confirmed the robustness of the methodology with respect to the simplifying assumptions on which it is based, in particular to the reduced number of accelerograms required for a stable and accurate estimate of risk, and demonstrates the applicability to the case of RC bridges. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic seismic loss estimation via endurance time method

Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation is a methodology used as a quantitative and explicit expression of the performance of buildings using terms that address the interests of both owners and insurance companies. Applying the ATC 58 approach for seismic loss assessment of buildings requires using Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), which needs hundreds of time-consuming analyses, which in turn hinders its wide application. The Endurance Time Method (ETM) is proposed herein as part of a demand propagation prediction procedure and is shown to be an economical alternative to IDA. Various scenarios were considered to achieve this purpose and their appropriateness has been evaluated using statistical methods. The most precise and efficient scenario was validated through comparison against IDA driven response predictions of 34 code conforming benchmark structures and was proven to be sufficiently precise while offering a great deal of efficiency. The loss values were estimated by replacing IDA with the proposed ETM-based procedure in the ATC 58 procedure and it was found that these values suffer from varying inaccuracies, which were attributed to the discretized nature of damage and loss prediction functions provided by ATC 58.     

Effect of cumulative seismic damage and corrosion on the life‐cycle cost of reinforced concrete bridges

Bridge design should take into account not only safety and functionality, but also the cost effectiveness of investments throughout a bridge life‐cycle. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to compute the life‐cycle cost (LCC) of corroding reinforced concrete (RC) bridges in earthquake‐prone regions. The approach is developed by combining cumulative seismic damage and damage associated with corrosion due to environmental conditions. Cumulative seismic damage is obtained from a low‐cycle fatigue analysis. Chloride‐induced corrosion of steel reinforcement is computed based on Fick's second law of diffusion. The proposed methodology accounts for the uncertainties in the ground motion parameters, the distance from the source, the seismic demand on the bridge, and the corrosion initiation time. The statistics of the accumulated damage and the cost of repairs throughout the bridge life‐cycle are obtained by Monte‐Carlo simulation. As an illustration of the proposed approach, the effects of design parameters on the LCC of an example RC bridge are studied. The results are valuable in better estimating the condition of existing bridges and, therefore, can help to schedule inspection and maintenance programs. In addition, by taking into consideration the two deterioration processes over a bridge life‐cycle, it is possible to estimate the optimal design parameters by minimizing, for example, the expected cost throughout the life of the structure. A comparison between the effects of the two deterioration processes shows that, in seismic regions, the cumulative seismic damage affects the reliability of bridges over time more than the corrosion even for corrosive environments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.