Assessing the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in China

Reference evapotranspiration (ET ₀ ) is a key parameter in hydrological and meteorological studies. In this study, the FAO Penman–Monteith equation was used to estimate ET ₀ , and the change in ET ₀ was investigated in China from 1960 to 2011. The results show that a change point around the year 1993 was detected for the annual ET ₀ series by the Cramer’s test. For the national average, annual ET ₀ decreased significantly (P < 0.001) by ?14.35 mm/decade from 1960 to 1992, while ET ₀ increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 22.40 mm/decade from 1993 to 2011. A differential equation method was used to attribute the change in ET ₀ to climate variables. The attribution results indicate that ET ₀ was most sensitive to change in vapor pressure, followed by solar radiation, air temperature and wind speed. However, the effective impact of change in climate variable on ET ₀ was the product of the sensitivity and the change rate of climate variable. During 1960–1992, the decrease in solar radiation was the main reason of the decrease in ET ₀ in humid region, while decrease in wind speed was the dominant factor of decreases in ET ₀ in arid region and semi-arid/semi-humid region of China. Decrease in solar radiation and/or wind speed offset the effect of increasing air temperature on ET ₀ , and together led to the decrease in ET ₀ from 1960 to 1992. Since 1993, the rapidly increasing air temperature was the dominant factor to the change in ET ₀ in all the three regions of China, which led to the increase in ET ₀ . Furthermore, the future change in ET ₀ was calculated under IPCC SRES A1B and B1 scenarios with projections from three GCMs. The results showed that increasing air temperature would dominate the change in ET ₀ and ET ₀ would increase by 2.13–10.77, 4.42–16.21 and 8.67–21.27 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared with the average annual ET ₀ during 1960–1990, respectively. The increases in ET ₀ would lead to the increase in agriculture water consumption in the 21st century and may aggravate the water shortage in China.     

Potential evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the arid region of Northwest China

Evaporation paradox and its attribution have become a hot research topic in hydrology in recent years. This study estimates the potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) using modified Penman–Monteith method and analyzes the corresponding trend attribution based on the long‐term meteorological data collected at 81 ground‐based meteorological stations in Northwestern arid region of China during the period 1958–2010. The analysis results show: (1) The ET₀ has exhibited an obvious decreasing trend until the early 1990s; however, the downward trend has been reversed to an upward trend after then. (2) Decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) and wind speed (WS) may lead to the decrease of ET₀ during 1956–1993. The change of dominant factors in the ET₀ trend has differences after the early 1990s; observed increase in WS is the primary factor contributing to the reversion of ET₀. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in recent five decades in the arid land of Northwestern China

Spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are useful for regional agricultural and water resources management as well as required in most distributed hydrological modelling. In the current study, the Penman–Monteith estimated ET₀ in the arid land of Northwestern China has been explicitly explored using the Mann–Kendall test. Most stations in the study region exhibited significant decreasing trend of ET₀ (P < 0.05) with only few occasions showing significant increasing trend (P < 0.05), despite the increase of temperature in the entire region. Analysis results revealed that the overall decreasing wind speed contributed most to the decreasing trend of ET₀, whereas the contributions of relative humidity and sunshine duration were limited. Temperature played the second important role on determining ET₀ trend, but its effect was opposite to that of wind speed and was largely offset by the decreasing wind speed. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis suggested the impact of temperature to ET₀ was much larger than formerly reported if its effect on saturated vapour deficit was taken into account. The results obtained in the current study will help for better understanding of the effects of climate changes to water resource management in the arid land of northwest China. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Yellow River Basin,China

The temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) reflect the combined effects of radiometric and aerodynamic variables, such as global solar radiation (R_s), wind speed, relative humidity and air temperature. The temporal trends of annual ET_ref during 1961–2006 calculated by Penman‐Monteith method were explored and the underlying causes for these trends were analysed in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The contributions of key meteorological variables to the temporal trend of ET_ref were detected using the detrended method and then sensitivity coefficients of ET_ref to meteorological variables were determined. For ET_ref, positive trends in the upper, middle and whole of YRB, and significant negative trend (P = 0·05) in the lower basin were obtained by the linear fitted model. Significant increasing trend (P = 0·05) in air temperature and decreasing trend in relative humidity were the main causes for the increasing trends of ET_ref in the upper, middle and whole basins. For the whole basin, the increasing trend of ET_ref was mainly caused by the significant increase (P = 0·05) in air temperature and to a lesser extent by a decrease in the relative humidity, decreasing trends of R_s and wind speed reduced ET_ref. The spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficients addressed that the sensitive regions for ET_ref response to the changes of the four meteorological variables are different in the YRB. The sensitive region lay in the upper basin for R_s, the northwest portion of the middle basin for wind speed, the south portion of YRB for relative humidity and the west portion of the upper basin and the north portion of the middle basin for air temperature. In general, R_s was the most sensitive variable for ET_ref, followed by relative humidity, air temperature and wind speed in the basin scale. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity analysis of a Penman–Monteith type equation to estimate reference evapotranspiration in southern Spain

Sensitivity analysis is crucial in assessing the impact of climatic variables on reference evapotranspiration estimations. The sensitivity of the standardized ASCE–Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration equation for daily estimations to climatic variables has not yet been studied in Spain. Andalusia is located in southern Spain where almost 1 million ha are irrigated under quite different conditions; it has a high inter‐annual variability in rainfall. In this study, sensitivity analyses for this equation were carried out for temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed data from 87 automatic weather stations, including coastal and inland locations, from 1999 to 2006. Topography and Mediterranean climate characterize the heterogeneous landscape and vegetation of this region. Simulated random and systematic errors have been added to meteorological data to obtain ET₀ deviations and sensitivity coefficients for different time periods. BIAS and SEE (standard error of estimate) have been used to evaluate the effect of both types of errors. The results showed a large degree of daily and seasonal variability, especially for temperature and relative humidity. In general, the effect on ET₀ values of introduced random errors was larger than that of systematic errors. ET₀ overestimations were produced using positive errors in temperature, solar radiation and wind speed data, while these errors in relative humidity resulted in ET₀ underestimations. The sensitivity of ET₀ to the same climatic variables showed significant differences among locations. The geographical distribution of sensitivity coefficients across this region was also studied. As an example, during spring months, ET₀ equation was more sensitive to temperature in stations located along the Guadalquivir Valley. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,northwest China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ET_o was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ET_o trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ET_o. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ET_o was also analyzed. We found that ET_o showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ET_o, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ET_o. The more significant decrease in ET_o for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ET_o and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ET_o were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ET_o response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elevation-dependent changes in reference evapotranspiration due to climate change

The Food and Agriculture Organizations' (FAO) Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is a crucial index in the research of water and energy balance. Temporal and spatial variations in ET₀ from 1981–2017 were investigated in the Hengduan Mountains, China_. The results showed a change point around the year 2000 in ET₀ series. ET₀ decreased and increased significantly by +3.200 mm/year (p < 0.01) from 1981–2000 and by +4.109 mm/year (p < 0.01) from 2001–2017, respectively. The contribution analysis shows that the positive significant contribution of air temperature (TA) was offset by negative effects of decreases in downward shortwave radiation (R_s) and wind speed (WS) and an increase in actual vapour pressure (e_a), causing the decrease in ET₀ from 1981 to 2000. WS was the largest contributing factor for the decrease in ET₀ from 1981 to 2000 during spring, winter and annually, while R_s and e_a were the largest negative contributors in summer and autumn, respectively. An increase in TA was responsible for the increase in ET₀ in all seasons except winter and the annual scale in 2001–2017. The sensitivity analysis shows that ET₀ was most sensitive to TA, and WS was the least sensitive variable. The trends of ET₀ increased with elevation; we denote this as the elevation-dependence of ET₀ changes. The elevation-dependence was also noted for the trends of WS and e_a, with higher elevations showing larger changes in WS and lower changes in e_a. Besides, the sensitivities of TA, R_s and e_a decreased with elevation, while that of WS increased slightly with elevation. A comprehensive investigation into the trends of climatic drivers and their sensitivities revealed complex trends of the contributions of climatic variables on ET₀ with elevation, with no uniform trend existed in seasons. The results will contribute to our understanding of the response of ET₀ to climate change in a mountainous area, and provide a guideline for the water resources management under climate change.     

Choice between competitive pairs of frequency models for use in hydrology: a review and some new results

Abstract

The potential is investigated of the generalized regression neural networks (GRNN) technique in modelling of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) obtained using the FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. Various combinations of daily climatic data, namely solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, are used as inputs to the ANN so as to evaluate the degree of effect of each of these variables on ET₀. In the first part of the study, a comparison is made between the estimates provided by the GRNN and those obtained by the Penman, Hargreaves and Ritchie methods as implemented by the California Irrigation Management System (CIMIS). The empirical models were calibrated using the standard FAO PM ET₀ values. The GRNN estimates are also compared with those of the calibrated models. Mean square error, mean absolute error and determination coefficient statistics are used as comparison criteria for the evaluation of the model performances. The GRNN technique (GRNN 1) whose inputs are solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, gave mean square errors of 0.058 and 0.032 mm² day^?2, mean absolute errors of 0.184 and 0.127 mm day^?1, and determination coefficients of 0.985 and 0.986 for the Pomona and Santa Monica stations (Los Angeles, USA), respectively. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GRNN 1 model could be employed successfully in modelling the ET₀ process. The second part of the study investigates the potential of the GRNN and the empirical methods in ET₀ estimation using the nearby station data. Among the models, the calibrated Hargreaves was found to perform better than the others.     

The potential of different ANN techniques in evapotranspiration modelling

The potential of three different artificial neural network (ANN) techniques, the multi‐layer perceptrons (MLPs), radial basis neural networks (RBNNs) and generalized regression neural networks (GRNNs), in modelling of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is investigated in this paper. Various daily climatic data, that is, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from two stations, Pomona and Santa Monica, in Los Angeles, USA, are used as inputs to the ANN techniques so as to estimate ET₀ obtained using the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith (PM) equation. In the first part of the study, a comparison is made between the estimates provided by the MLP, RBNN and GRNN and those of the following empirical models: The California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) Penman (1985), Hargreaves (1985) and Ritchie (1990). In this part of the study, the empirical models are calibrated using the standard FAO‐56 PM ET₀ values. The estimates of the ANN techniques are also compared with those of the calibrated empirical models. Mean square errors, mean absolute errors and determination coefficient statistics are used as comparing criteria for the evaluation of the models' performances. Based on the comparisons, it is found that the MLP and RBNN techniques could be employed successfully in modelling the ET₀ process. In the second part of the study, the potential of ANN techniques and the empirical methods in ET₀ estimation using nearby station data is investigated. Among the models, the calibrated Hargreaves model is found to perform better than the others. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India

In the present study, the trends in the reference evapotranspiration (ET_O) estimated through the Penman‐Monteith method were investigated over the humid region of northeast (NE) India by using the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test after removing the effect of significant lag‐1 serial correlation from the time series of ET_O by pre‐whitening. During the last 22 years, ET_O has been found to decrease significantly at annual and seasonal time scales for 6 sites in NE India and NE India as a whole. The seasonal decreases in ET_O have, however, been more significant in the pre‐monsoon season, indicating the presence of an element of a seasonal cycle. The decreases in ET_O are mainly attributed to the net radiation and wind speed, which are also corroborated by the observed trends in these two parameters at almost all the times scales over most of the sites in NE India. The steady decrease in wind speed and decline in net radiation not only balanced the impact of the temperature increases on ET_O, but may have actually caused the decreases in ET_O over the humid region of northeast India. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

This study investigates reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) trends in China from 1960 to 2012 based on the Penman–Monteith equation and gridded meteorological measurements. Under the combined impacts of factors influencing ET₀ (i.e., net radiation [RN], mean temperature [TAVE], vapour pressure deficit [VPD], and wind speed [WND]), both seasonal and annual ET₀ for the whole China and more than half of the grids decreased over the past 53 years. The attribution analyses suggest that for the whole China, the WND is responsible for annual and seasonal ET₀ decreases (excluding summer, where RN is responsible). Across China, the annual cause of WND with the largest spatial extent (43.1% of grids) mainly derives from north of the Changjiang River Basin (CJRB), whereas VPD (RN) as a cause is dispersedly distributed (within and to the south of the CJRB). In summer, RN is dominant in more than half of the grids, but the dominance of VPD and WND accounts for approximately 90% of grids during the remaining seasons. Finally, the correlation coefficients between ET₀ and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO), North AO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices with different lead times are calculated. For the whole China, annual and seasonal ET₀ always significantly correlate with these indices (excluding the IOD) but with varied lead times. Additionally, near half of the grids show significant and maximum (i.e., the largest one between ET₀ and a certain index with a lead time of 0–3 seasons) correlation coefficients of ET₀ with PDO in spring and summer, ENSO in autumn, and AO in winter. This study is not only significant for understanding ET₀ changes, but it also provides preliminary and fundamental reference information for ET₀ prediction.     

Comparison of methods for applying the Priestley–Taylor equation at a regional scale

The scenario assumed for this study was that of a region with a complete or first‐order weather station surrounded by a network of second‐order stations, where only monthly air temperature data were available. The objective was to evaluate procedures to estimate the monthly α parameter of the Priestley–Taylor equation in the second‐order stations by adjusting and extrapolating α values determined at the first‐order station. These procedures were applied in two climatic zones of north‐east Spain with semi‐arid continental and semi‐arid Mediterranean climates, respectively. Procedure A assumed α to be constant over each zone for each month (direct extrapolation). Procedure B accounted for differences in vapour pressure deficit and available energy for evapotranspiration between the first‐ and second‐order stations. Procedure C was based on equating the Penman–Monteith (P–M) and Priestley–Taylor (P–T) equations on a monthly basis to solve for α. Methods to estimate monthly mean vapour pressure deficit, net radiation and wind speed were developed and evaluated. A total of 11 automated first‐order weather stations with a minimum period of record of 6 years (ranging from 6 to 10 years) were used for this study. Six of these stations were located in the continental zone and five in the Mediterranean zone. One station in each zone was assumed to be first‐order whereas the remainder were taken as second‐order stations. Monthly α parameters were calibrated using P–M reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) values, calculated hourly and integrated for monthly periods, which were taken as ‘true’ values of ET₀. For the extrapolation of monthly α parameters, procedure A was found to perform slightly better than procedure B in the Mediterranean zone. The opposite was true in the continental zone. Procedure C had the worst performance owing to the non‐linearity of the P–M equation and errors in the estimation of monthly available energy, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed. Procedures A and B are simpler and performed better. Overall, monthly P–T ET₀ estimates using extrapolated α parameters and R_n?G values were in a reasonable agreement with P–M ET₀ calculated on an hourly basis and integrated for monthly periods. The methods presented for the spatial extrapolation of monthly available energy, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed from first‐ to second‐order stations could be useful for other applications. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evapotranspiration modelling using support vector machines / Modélisation de l'évapotranspiration à l'aide de ‘support vector machines’

Abstract

This study investigates the accuracy of support vector machines (SVM), which are regression procedures, in modelling reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). The daily meteorological data, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from three stations, Windsor, Oakville and Santa Rosa, in central California, USA, are used as inputs to the support vector machines to reproduce ET₀ obtained using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation. A comparison is made between the estimates provided by the SVM and those of the following empirical models: the California Irrigation Management System (CIMIS) Penman, Hargreaves, Ritchie and Turc methods. The SVM results were also compared with an artificial neural networks method. Root mean-squared errors, mean-absolute errors, and determination coefficient statistics are used as comparing criteria for the evaluation of the models' performances. The comparison results reveal that the support vector machines could be employed successfully in modelling the ET₀ process.     

Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran

Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is important in arid and semi‐arid regions where water resources are limited. The main aim of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution and the annual, seasonal and monthly trends of the Penman–Monteith ET_o for 21 stations in the arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran. Three statistical tests the Mann‐Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The analysis revealed that ET_o increased from January to July and deceased from July to December at almost all stations. Additionally, higher annual ET_o values were found in the southeast of the study region and lower values in the northwest of the region. Although the results showed both positive and negative trends in annual ET_o series, ET_o generally increased, significantly so in six (～30%) of the stations. Analysis of the impacts of meteorological variables on the temporal trends of ET_o indicated that the increasing trend of ET_o was most likely due to a significant increase in minimum air temperature, while decreasing trend of ET_o was mainly caused by a significant decrease in wind speed. At the sites where increasing ET_o trends were statistically significant, the rate of increase varied from (+)8·36 mm/year at Mashhad station to (+)31·68 mm/year at Iranshahr station. On average, an increasing trend of (+)4·42 mm/year was obtained for the whole study area during the last four decades. Seasonal and monthly ET_o have also tended to increase at the majority of the stations. The greatest numbers of significant trends were observed in winter on the seasonal time‐scale and in September on the monthly time‐scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating evapotranspiration for a temperate salt marsh,Newcastle, Australia

Evapotranspiration was studied at a salt marsh site in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia, during 1996–8. Estimates of actual evapotranspiration (E_a) were obtained for three sites using the eddy correlation method. These values were compared with results obtained with the Penman and Penman–Monteith equations, and with pan evaporation. The Penman–Monteith method was found to be most reliable in estimating daily and hourly evapotranspiration. Surface resistance values averaging 12 s m^?1 were derived from the eddy correlation estimates. Recent tidal flooding and rainfall were found to decrease surface resistance and increase E_a/E_p ratios. Estimates of evapotranspiration obtained using the Penman–Monteith method were shown to be sensitive to changes in surface resistance, canopy height and the method used to estimate net radiation from incoming solar radiation. These results underline the importance of accurately estimating such parameters based on site‐specific data rather than relying on empirical equations, which are derived primarily for crops and forests. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parametric calibration of the Hargreaves–Samani equation for use at new locations

The Hargreaves–Samani (HS) evapotranspiration equation is very useful for the on‐site irrigation management in data‐short situations such as small and midsize farms and landscaped areas. Although much work has been performed to improve the precision of the evapotranspiration (ET_o) estimates for use at new locations, the results have not been consistent and many have not been confirmed by other works. The purpose of this study was to review and to evaluate the seven most promising parameters used for the calibration of the HS evapotranspiration equation, using two different regions: California and Bolivia. The results of this study show that annual correlations between HS and Penman–Monteith can be misleading because the correlation is poor in the humid months and improves progressively along the dry season until the first rains. The average monthly wind speed can be used for both spatial and seasonal calibration of the HS equation, especially during the irrigation season. Elevation and precipitation can be used to calibrate the HS equation when no reference ET_o values are available at nearby stations. The monthly value of K_T calculated from solar radiation follows a parabolic function along the year and should not be used for improving the estimates of the HS equation because the clearness index produces better results than actual solar radiation measurements. The results also indicate that the use of distance to coast, temperature range and temperature parameter does not improve the precision of the HS equation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation and calibration of solar radiation equations for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration at cool semi-arid and arid locations

ABSTRACT

In this work, the applicability of 12 solar radiation (R_S) estimation models and their impacts on daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) estimates using the Penman‐Monteith FAO-56 (PMF-56) method were tested under cool arid and semi-arid conditions in Iran. The results indicated that the average increase in accuracy of the ET_o estimates by the calibrated R_S models, quantified by the decrease in RMSE, was 2.8% and 6.4% for semi-arid and arid climates, respectively. Mean daily deviations in the estimated ET_o by the calibrated R_S equations in semi-arid climates varied from ?0.283?mm/d^-1 for the Glover‐McCulloch model to 0.080?mm/d for the El-Sebaii model, with an average of ?0.109?mm/d^-1, and in arid climates, they ranged from ?0.522?mm/d^-1 for the Samani model to 0.668?mm/d for the El-Sebaii model, with an average of 0.125?mm/d^-1.

Editor D. Koutsyiannis; Associate editor Not assigned     

Sap flow of Artemisia ordosica and the influence of environmental factors in a revegetated desert area: Tengger Desert,China

Artemisia ordosica is considered as an excellent sand‐fixing plant in revegetated desert areas, which plays a pertinent role in stabilizing the mobile dunes and sustaining the desert ecosystems. Stem sap flows of about 10‐year‐old Artemisia ordosica plants were monitored continuously with heat balance method for the entire growing season in order to understand the water requirement and the effects of environmental factors on its transpiration and growth. Environment factors such as solar radiation, air temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation were measured by the eddy covariance. Diurnal and seasonal variations of sap flow rate with different stem diameters and their correlation with meteorological factors and reference evapotranspiration were analysed. At the daily time scale, there was a significantly linear relationship between sap flow rate and reference evapotranspiration with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0·6368. But at the hourly time scale, the relationship of measured sap flow rate and calculated reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) was affected by the precipitation. A small precipitation would increase the sap flow and the ET₀; however, when the precipitation is large, the sap flow and ET₀ decrease. Leaf area index had a coincident variation with soil water content; both were determined by the precipitation, and meteorological factors were the most significant factors that affected the sap flow of Artemisia ordosica in the following order: solar radiation > vapour pressure deficit > relative humidity > air temperature > wind speed. The close correlation between daily sap flow rate and meteorological factors in the whole growing season would provide us an accurate estimation of the transpiration of Artemisia ordosica and rational water‐carrying capacity of sand dunes in the revegetated desert areas. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polynomial chaos expansion and response surface method for nonlinear modelling of reference evapotranspiration

The feasibility of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and response surface method (RSM) models is investigated for modelling reference evapotranspiration (ET₀). The modelling results of the proposed models are validated against the M5 model tree and multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) methods. Two meteorological stations, Isparta and Antalya, in the Mediterranean region of Turkey, are inspected. Various input combinations of daily air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity are constructed as input attributes for the ET₀. Generally, the modelling accuracy is increased by increasing the number of inputs. Including wind speed in the model inputs considerably increases their accuracy in modelling ET₀. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), agreement index (d) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) are used as comparison criteria. The PCE is the most accurate model in estimating daily ET₀, giving the lowest MAE (0.036 and 0.037 mm) and RMSE (0.047 and 0.050 mm) and the highest d (0.9998 and 0.9999) and NSE (0.9992 and 0.9996) with the four-input PCE models for Isparta and Antalya, respectively.     

The application of multiple linear regression method in reference evapotranspiration trend calculation

Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), as a key factor in irrigation programming, has an important role in water resources management. Many parameters affect ET₀ and their variations can change its values. In this paper, the effect of temporal variation of meteorological variables including wind speed, temperature, solar radiation and saturation vapor pressure deficit on temporal variations of ET₀ was analyzed. Trend analysis of ET₀ and its more effective meteorological parameters was accomplished in 30 synoptic stations which are located in Iran using Spearman’s Rho test. The multiple linear regressions were also used to determine the relationship between ET₀ trend and the trend of its more effective parameters. Increasing and decreasing trends in ET₀ were obtained at annual and seasonal scales. Many studied stations which had decreasing trend in the annual and seasonal periods have been located in the arid climates while all stations which have been located in humid and very-humid climates, had an increasing trend in annual and seasonal periods. The trend results in studied variables showed that annual and seasonal values of wind speed, temperature and saturation vapor pressure deficit decrease however the values of solar radiation increases in most studied stations. Multiple linear regressions results demonstrated that ET₀ trend can be calculated by the trend of two more effective variables including wind speed and saturation vapor pressure deficit.