Vegetation Restoration Monitoring in Yingxiu Landslide Area after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

A total of more than 50 000 landslides has occurred in Sichuan province since the "5·12" Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in serious damage to the surface vegetation in southwestern China.In this study,we select Yingxiu,the epicenter of Wenchuan earthquake,as the experimental area.The vegetation coverage information of the experimental area is extracted from the remote sensing images collected in the year of2005,2011 and 2013,respectively.The surface vegetation coverage in different periods is analyzed,and the vegetation recovery rate of the whole area is calculated.The experimental results show that in the first three years after the earthquake,the speed of vegetation restoration is slow,and the vegetation coverage rate is less than 20%better than 0.241,while in 2013,the vegetation coverage increases significantly.     

汶川Ms8．0地震驱动的同震及震后地质灾害空间分布

汶川大地震驱动了大量的同震崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害,这些地质灾害同时造成了山谷中大量的松散堆积物堆积,并将以泥石流的形式进入河流系统,造成震后大规模的泥石流地质灾害,这也是地震灾区在震后面临的最为严峻的问题。根据本项目组的卫星影像处理和实地观测工作,以及前人对同震地质灾害研究获得的数量资料,对同震地质灾害数量在平行于断裂方...     

Investigation of the Macroscopic Anomalies before and after the M8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake

The macroscopic anomalies before and after the May 12,2008 Wenchuan M8. 0 earthquake were collected and analyzed in this paper. The credible anomalies occurring from February 1 to June 10,2008 were treated as macroscopic anomalies,and their space-time distribution was studied. The research indicates that in time distribution, the number of macroscopic anomalies peaked before the earthquake, and these peak values appeared twice after the earthquake. In space distribution, the distribution of macroscopic anomalies before the earthquake was the same as that after the earthquake. In this paper, the mechanism of occurrence of macroscopic anomalies and the role of macroscopic anomalies in forecasting earthquake were also discussed.     

汶川8.0级地震中汶川县城房屋震害及其加固情况分析

依据5.12汶川地震中汶川县城(威远镇)11个区域共522栋房屋的房屋安全鉴定报告,深入统计分析房屋的震害情况及特点。结果表明,县城房屋倒塌较少,但破坏程度较重。破坏多集中在低层房屋以及砌体结构和木结构,而钢筋混凝土框架及高层房屋破坏较轻。结合房屋的破坏情况,对县城房屋的维修和加固情况进行分类统计,分析维修加固中出现的问题,并提出了相应建议。     

The Spatial Distribution and Attribute Parameter Statistics of Landslides Triggered by the May 12th, 2008, MW7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake

A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide. Substantial landslides were triggered by the M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12^th, 2008. Google Earth images of pre- and post-earthquakes show that 52 194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped, with a total landslides area of 1 021 km².Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database, which includes area, length, and width of landslides, elevation of the scarp top and foot edge, and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope. Finally, the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven. The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area (a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan) are obviously controlled by surface rupture, terrain, and peak ground acceleration. Meanwhile, a large number of small landslides (individual landslide area less than 10 000 m²)contribute less to the total landslides area. The number of landslides larger than 10 000 m² accounts for 38.7% of the total number of co-seismic landslides, while the area of those landslides account for 88% of the total landslides area. The 52 194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area, transport area, and accumulation area. However, based on the area-volume power-law relationship, the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide.     

应用动态复合震源模型模拟汶川Mw7.9地震强地面运动

2008年5月12日中国汶川地区发生Mw7.9地震,震中位置103.4°E,31.0°N.主要发震断层空间展布长达300多公里,由南西方向到北东方向呈现明显的分段性,汶川—映秀段逆冲为主兼有少量的右旋走滑分量;安县—北川段为逆冲-右旋走滑的断层错动;青川段以右旋走滑为主兼有少量逆冲分量.采用改进后的复合震源强地面运动预测模型,建立了长为320 km,宽为20 km的断层破裂运动学模型,实现了断层分段、空间倾角、滑动方向连续变化的动态设定.数值模拟结果给出了近断层两侧(上、下盘)的地面加速度的分布特征,并同卧龙、郫县走石山及绵竹清平强震观测记录进行了对比分析.模拟加速度时程曲线无论在波形、持续时间、频率分量、峰值大小同观测记录都具有较好的相似性.利用现有83个已知经纬度台站的强震实测数据及数值模拟的结果同Boore等的新一代衰减关系(NGA)进行比较,对比模拟与实际观测水平峰值加速度的一致程度.近断层峰值加速度分布特征则进一步显示了在汶川、北川和青川附近明显的高值分布区域,同野外地质调查相一致.进一步的分析结果也表明,汶川—映秀段逆冲为主的断层上盘的运动量远大于断层下盘,在距离断层地表出露位置5 km处,峰值加速度N-S、E-W及UP方向分量的比值分别为1.72∶1、2.5∶1及1.77∶1.本文中给出的动态复合震源模型和近断层区域强震模拟的计算方法,对大震强地面运动的预测及实现近实时强地面运动分布特征的圈定(Shaking Map)有着重要的实际意义.     

基于高分卫星遥感影像的地震应急滑坡编目与分布特征探讨——以2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震为例

地震应急是减轻地震灾害的重要途径之一。地震应急工作具有时间紧迫、事关重大的特点。2017年8月8日四川九寨沟M_S7.0级地震发生后,为快速、准确地提供地震引发的滑坡灾害分布,本研究基于震后第一天获取到的高分辨率遥感影像（高分二号卫星影像、北京二号卫星影像）,通过人工目视解译的方法初步建立了四川九寨沟地震滑坡编目。结果表明,该地震至少触发了622处同震滑坡,分布在沿使用影像边界框定的面积为3919km2的区域内。本研究还利用这个地震滑坡编目,统计了九寨沟地震滑坡数量和滑坡点密度（LND）与地形（坡度、坡向）、地震（地震烈度、震中距）等因素的关系。结果表明九寨沟地震滑坡多发生在坡度为20°—50°的区域内,滑坡的易发性随着坡度的增加而增加。受地震波传播方向的影响,E、SE向是地震滑坡较易发生的坡向。滑坡的易发程度和地震烈度呈正相关,即随着烈度的增大,滑坡易发性增大。滑坡易发性还随着震中距增加而降低,这是由于地震波能量随震中距的增加而衰减导致的。     

The Volume Calculation Method of Rock Collapses and Loess Landslides Triggered by the 1556 AD Huaxian M8 1/2 Earthquake in Shaanxi Province, China

Accurate volume calculation of each individual landslide triggered by strong historical earthquakes can help understand the characteristics of the typical earthquake-induced landslides, thus providing significant information for the modification of the focal parameters of historical earthquakes. In this study, we select one rock fall and three loess landslides triggered by the 1556 AD Huaxian M8 1/2 earthquake, compute their volumes using the low-altitude high-precision Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry and landslide profile restoration methods. The results show that:① the whole influencing area of the Huangjiagou Rock Fall is approximately 3.03×10⁵ m² and the area of the collapsed rock accumulated at the slope foot is 3.33×10⁴ m², accounting for approximately 10% of the entire influencing range. However, the estimated volume of the collapsed rock is only 0.699×10⁶ m³, indicating a rock fall with large influencing range but limited collapsed rock; ② the geological form of thethree loess landslides are preserved intactly, with volumes of 0.283×10⁸ m³, 0.074×10⁸ m³, and 0.377×10⁸ m³. These important geological hazard relics reflect the strong vibrations and severe casualties in the meizoseismal area; ③ loess landslides are the key reason of the serious death toll in the hilly-gully loess area. Our new method can be used to estimate the influencing area and the actual volume of each individual landslide, and rationally evaluate the role of earthquake landslides in the disaster. In addition, quantitative research on secondary disasters triggered by strong historical earthquakes is beneficial for understanding the surface process and focal parameters of the earthquakes.     

成都平原内汶川Ms8.0级地震的地表变形

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级大地震发生在青藏高原东缘龙门山推覆构造带上,除映秀—北川断裂、灌县—江油断裂上各形成240 km和72 km 长的地表破裂带外,可能在成都平原西部的什邡市师古镇附近形成一条弱地表破裂带.成都平原内的地震地表破裂带与龙门山区的2条地震破裂带构成倾向北西的叠瓦状逆断裂地震地表破裂系统.野外调查发现,师古镇南肖家院—庆云庵建筑物严重破坏带、水渠跌水、地表褶皱、喷砂和地裂缝带走向30°,延伸长度约7.5 km.探槽开挖表明,地表地震褶皱陡坎下的地层发生弯曲变形,汶川地震使断层上盘的地面和最新地层褶皱隆起0.2 m.TC2探槽中的粘土层底面褶皱隆起0.4 m,它可能记录到汶川地震之前另外一次与汶川地震大小相当的古地震事件.浅层地震勘探资料表明,平原区出现地震地表破裂的位置不仅存在晚更新世活动断裂,而且伴生有第四纪活动褶皱.     

答“评‘紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用’二维模拟的局限性”

程惠红等(2015)在"评‘紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用’二维模拟的局限性"一文中提出,陶玮等(2014)采用二维模型模拟紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化是一个不足,夸大了汶川地震震源处库仑应力增长值.我们认为采用二维模型模拟水库造成汶川地震震源处库仑应力变化确实可能存在一定偏差,但不会如程惠红等认为的"与三维模型相比夸大三倍".这是因为在程惠红等引用的论证中,二维模型计算中选取了接近水库最大剖面宽度而不是水库平均剖面宽度作为加载量参数,造成计算得到震源处库仑应力明显夸大.此外,陶玮等(2014)提出论断的主要依据不是"震源处"库仑应力值的大小,而是紫坪铺水库蓄水"由浅入深影响到整条断层,尤其对浅层范围的加载作用明显,达上百千帕,为整个断层面的失稳提供了基础".初始破裂的发生既可能是由水库蓄水引起,也可能是并非水库蓄水造成的一次普通构造小震,但其发生引发断层面上部已被水库蓄水弱化部分的连锁失稳而发生大震.即汶川地震既可能为直接触发也可能为间接触发,而我们的研究结果认为地震的发生完全可能由间接触发产生.若仅纠结于"震源处"的库仑应力变化,则忽视了水库蓄水影响的主体.水库蓄水对地震触发作用是一个复杂问题,相对这一问题所涉及的一系列不确定性因素来说,二维模拟的局限性所造成的影响并不很大也不是最大的,也不妨碍我们据此得出紫坪铺水库蓄水促进汶川地震发生的结论.     

芦山MS7.0地震前天体引潮力和OLR异常

2013年4月20日在我国四川省芦山（30.284o N, 102.955o E）发生MS7.0地震,计算该地区潮汐变化,地震时刻引潮力处于最低相位点,显示引潮力的诱震作用属于典型逆冲断层作用类型。以此潮汐周期为时间指示（4月12日~4月23日）,利用NOAA卫星地面长波辐射（OLR）数据资料分析全国范围地震前后热辐射值连续变化,结果显示：伴随潮汐演化,在全国范围（17°N-55°N ~ 73°E-155°E）内,震前OLR仅震中及其相关联断裂附近发生了显著而连续异常变化过程：在时间上经历了起始增温→异常加强→高峰→衰减→发震→平静的演化过程;在空间上异常位置与震中基本吻合,发展过程表现出沿断裂带由分散→汇聚→分散的破裂过程,与岩石应力加载破裂演化经历：初始微动破裂→扩张破裂→应力闭锁→地震爆发→平静阶段的力学过程完全吻合,显示天体引潮力对处于临界状态的活动断层具有诱发作用,而长波辐射异常是地震构造应力应变过程辐射表征。将引潮力与OLR异常结合在地震前兆研究中有一定的实用价值。     

Multi‐method (14C, 36Cl, 234U/230Th) age bracketing of the Tschirgant rock avalanche (Eastern Alps): implications for absolute dating of catastrophic mass‐wasting

Correct and precise age determination of prehistorical catastrophic rock‐slope failures prerequisites any hypotheses relating this type of mass wasting to past climatic regimes or palaeo‐seismic records. Despite good exposure, easy accessibility and a long tradition of absolute dating, the age of the 230 million m³ carbonate‐lithic Tschirgant rock avalanche event of the Eastern Alps (Austria) still is relatively poorly constrained. We herein review the age of mass‐wasting based on a total of 17 absolute ages produced with three different methods (¹⁴C, ³⁶Cl, ²³⁴U/²³⁰Th). Chlorine‐36 (³⁶Cl) cosmogenic surface exposure dating of five boulders of the rock avalanche deposit indicates a mean event age of 3.06 ± 0.62 ka. Uranium‐234/thorium‐230 (²³⁴U/²³⁰Th) dating of soda‐straw stalactites formed in microcaves beneath boulders indicate mean precipitation ages of three individual soda straws at 3.20 ± 0.26 ka, 3.04 ± 0.10 ka and 2.81 ± 0.15 ka; notwithstanding potential internal errors, these ages provide an ‘older‐than’ (ante quam) proxy for mass‐wasting. Based on radiocarbon ages (nine sites) only, it was previously suggested that the present rock avalanche deposit represents two successive failures (3.75 ± 0.19 ka bp , 3.15 ± 0.19 ka bp ). There is, however, no evidence for two events neither in surface outcrops nor in LiDAR derived imagery and drill logs. The temporal distribution of all absolute ages (¹⁴C, ³⁶Cl, ²³⁴U/²³⁰Th) also does not necessarily indicate two successive events but suggest that a single catastrophic mass‐wasting took place between 3.4 and 2.4 ka bp . Taking into account the maximum age boundary given by reinterpreted radiocarbon datings and the minimum U/Th‐ages of calcite precipitations within the rock avalanche deposits, a most probable event age of 3.01 ± 0.10 ka bp can be proposed. Our results underscore the difficulty to accurately date catastrophic rock slope failures, but also the potential to increase the accuracy of age determination by combining methods. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy)

This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution q_for between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution q_for which, in turn, is set up by associating to each q_for the q_opt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the q_for values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the q_opt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for q_for is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of q_for made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Thailand was a desert' during the mid‐Cretaceous: Equatorward shift of the subtropical high‐pressure belt indicated by eolian deposits (Phu Thok Formation) in the Khorat Basin,northeastern Thailand

The Tibetan Plateau is a key factor in controlling the present‐day climate and atmospheric circulation pattern in Asia. The pattern of atmospheric circulation after the uplift of the plateau is well known, whereas direct evidence is lacking regarding the nature of the circulation pattern prior to the uplift. The distribution of desert directly reflects the position of the subtropical high‐pressure belt, and the prevailing surface‐wind pattern recorded in desert deposits reveals the position of its divergence axis. Cretaceous eolian sandstone of the Phu Thok Formation is extensively exposed in the northern Khorat Basin, northeastern Thailand. We conducted a sedimentological study on this formation to reconstruct temporal changes in the latitude of the subtropical high‐pressure belt in low‐latitude Asia during the Cretaceous. Spatio‐temporal changes in the paleo‐wind directions recorded in the Phu Thok Formation reveal that the Khorat Basin mainly belonged to the northeast trade wind belt and subtropical high‐pressure belt was situated to the north of the Khorat Basin during the initial stages of deposition, shifted southward to immediately above the basin during the main phase of deposition, and then shifted northward again to the north of the basin during the final stages of deposition. The paleomagnetic polarity sequence obtained for the Phu Thok Formation comprises three zones of normal polarity and two of reversed polarity, correlating to chrons M1n to C34n of the geomagnetic polarity time scale. This result suggests that the Phu Thok Formation is mid‐Cretaceous in age (from c. 126 Ma to c. 99–93 Ma), similar to the age of eolian sandstone in the Sichuan Basin, southern China (the Jiaguan Formation). These results, in combination with paleo‐wind direction data, suggest the development of low‐latitude desert and an equatorward shift of the subtropical high‐pressure belt (relative to the present‐day) in Asia during the mid‐Cretaceous.