Regional recharge assessment in the crystalline bedrock aquifer of the Kenogami Uplands,Canada

Abstract

Estimates of trends of climatic changes at basin and state scales are required for developing adaptation strategies related to planning, development and management of water resources. In the present study, seasonal and annual trends of changes in maximum temperature (T _max), minimum temperature (T _min), mean temperature (T _mean), temperature range (T _range), highest maximum temperature (H _max) and lowest minimum temperature (L _min) have been examined at the basin scale. The longest available records over the last century, for 43 stations covering nine river basins in northwest and central India, were used in the analysis. Of the nine river basins studied, seven showed a warming trend, whereas two showed a cooling trend. The Narmada and Sabarmati river basins experienced the maximum warming and cooling, respectively. The majority of basins in the study area show increasing trend in T _range, H _max and L _min. Seasonal analysis of different variables shows that the greatest changes in T _max and T _mean were observed in the post-monsoon season, while T _min experienced the greatest change in the monsoon season. This analysis provides scenarios of temperature changes which may be used for sensitivity analysis of water availability for different basins, and accordingly in planning and implementation of adaptation strategies.     

Trends in extreme temperature indices in the Poyang Lake Basin,China

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature records at 78 meteorological stations in the Basin of China’s largest fresh water lake (Poyang Lake Basin), the temporal and spatial variability of 11 extreme temperature indices are investigated for the period 1959–2010. The analysis indicates that the annual mean of daily minimum temperature (T_min) has increased significantly, while no significant trends were observed in the annual mean of daily maximum temperature (T_max), resulting in a significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range. Trends and percentages of stations with significant trends in T_min-related indices are generally stronger and higher than those in T_max-related indices; however, no significant trends can be found in T_max-related indices (TXMean, TX90p, TXx and TX10p) at both seasonal and annual time scale. Low correlations with Global-SST ENSO index are also detected in T_max-related indices. Significant positive relationships can be found in T_min-related indices (TNMean, TNx, TNn and TN90p), however, the most significant negative coefficient was also found in cold nights (TN10p) with the Global-SST ENSO index. Singular value decomposition (SVD) correlating extreme temperatures over the Poyang Lake Basin and the North Pacific SST indicates the East China Sea, Western Pacific and Bering Sea to be stronger linked with T_min than T_max with the first mode (SVD-1) explaining 90 and 94 % of annual T_max and T_min respectively.     

Impacts of Urbanization and Station-relocation on Surface Air Temperature Series in Anhui Province, China

Since the 1990s, many meteorological stations in China have passively “entered” cities, which has led to frequent relocation and discontinuity in observational records at many stations. To study the impacts of urbanization on surface air temperature series, 52 meteorological stations in Anhui Province were chosen based firstly on a homogeneity test of the time series, and then their surrounding underlying surfaces during different decades were identified utilizing Landsat Multispectral Scanner images from the 1970s, Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1980s and 1990s, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper images after 2000, to determine whether or not the station “entered” city, and then these stations were categorized into three groups: urban, suburban, and rural using Landsat-measured land use/land cover (LULC) around the station. Finally, variations in annual mean air temperature (T _mean), maximum air temperature (T _max), and minimum air temperature (T _min) were analyzed in urban-type stations and compared to their surrounding rural-type stations. The results showed that, in Anhui Province over the past two decades, many rural stations experienced urbanization and changed into urban or suburban locations. This process is referred as the “city-entering” phenomena of stations. Consequently, many of the latest stations were relocated and moved to currently rural and suburban areas, which significantly influenced the continuity of observational records and the homogeneity of long-term trends. Based on homogeneous data series, the averaged annual T _mean, T _max, and T _min over Anhui Province increased at a rate of 0.407, 0.383 and 0.432 °C decade^?1 from 1970 to 2008. The strongest effect of urbanization on annual T _mean, T _max, and T _min trends occurred at urban stations, with corresponding contributions of 35.824, 14.286, and 45.161 % to total warming, respectively. This work provides convincing evidences that (1) urban expansion has important impacts on the evaluation of regional climate change, (2) high spatial resolution images of Landsat are very useful for selecting reference climate stations for evaluating the potential urban bias in the surface air temperature data in certain regions of the continents, and (3) meteorological observation adjustments of station-relocation-induced inhomogeneities are essential for the study of regional or global climate change.     

Performance evaluation of satellite-based approaches for the estimation of daily air temperature and reference evapotranspiration

Different satellite-based radiation (Makkink) and temperature (Hargreaves-Samani, Penman-Monteith temperature, PMT) reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) models were compared with the FAO56-PM method over the Cauvery basin, India. Maximum air temperature (T_max) required in the ET_o models was estimated using the temperature–vegetation index (TVX) and an advanced statistical approach (ASA), and evaluated with observed T_max obtained from automatic weather stations. Minimum air temperature (T_min) was estimated using ASA. Land surface temperature was employed in the ET_o models in place of air temperature (T_a) to check the potency of its applicability. The results suggest that the PMT model with T_a as input performed better than the other ET_o models, with correlation coefficient (r), averaged root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) of 0.77, 0.80 mm d^?1 and ?0.69 for all land cover classes. The ASA yielded better T_max and T_min values (r and RMSE of 0.87 and 2.17°C, and 0.87 and 2.27°C, respectively).     

Isotopic composition of precipitation during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the Southeast Region of Brazil

Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variations interact with processes of atmospheric circulation, creating conditions for the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events represent the most important interannual phenomena affecting climate patterns worldwide and causing significant socio‐economic impacts. In the Brazilian territory, ENSO leads to an increase in drought episodes in the north‐eastern region and an increase in precipitation in the southern region, whereas the effects over the south‐east region are yet not well understood. The main goal of this study is to compare variations of isotopic composition in precipitation across the south‐east portion of the Brazilian territory during two very strong ENSO events: 1997–1998 (ENSO 1) and 2014–2016 (ENSO 2). Daily isotopic records, available from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation database for ENSO 1, and samples collected during ENSO 2 were used to compare the influence of both events on the isotopic composition of precipitation. Seasonal variations indicated more depleted precipitation during the wet seasons (δ¹⁸O = ?5.4 ± 4.0‰) and enriched precipitation during the dry seasons (δ¹⁸O = ?2.8 ± 2.3‰). Observed rainfall variations were associated with atmospheric large‐scale processes and moisture transport from the Amazon region, whereas extreme values (enriched or depleted) appear to be associated with particular convective and stratiform precipitation events. Overall, more depleted isotopic composition of precipitation (δ¹⁸O = ?4.60‰) and higher d‐excess (up to +15‰) were observed during the dry season of ENSO 1 when compared with ENSO 2 dry season (δ¹⁸O‰ = ?2.80‰, d‐excess lower than +14‰). The latter is explained by greater atmospheric moisture content, particularly associated with recycling of transpiration fluxes from the Amazon region, during dry season of ENSO 1. No significant differences for δ¹⁸O and δ²H were observed during the wet season; however, d‐excess from ENSO 2 was greater than ENSO 1, due to the slightly greater atmospheric moisture content and very strong upward motion observed. Our findings highlight the opportunity that environmental isotopes offer towards understanding hydrometeorological processes, particularly, the evolution of extreme climatic events of global resonance such as ENSO.     

Regional climate change and local urbanization effects on weather variables in Southeast China

This paper presents the analyses of regional climate change features and the local urbanization effects on different weather variables over Southeast China. The weather variables considered are: daily mean (T_m), minimum (T_min), and maximum (T_max) near surface air temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), relative humidity (RH), and precipitation (P). With analysis of two datasets (a station dataset for the period from 1960 to 2005 that is mainly used and a grid dataset for the period 1960–2000), this study reveals that the trends in the variations of these weather variables can be separated into two periods, before and after 1984. Before 1984, there were no significant urbanization effects, and T_min, RH, and P steadily increased but T_max decreased, resulting in a considerable decrease in DTR and a slight decrease in T_m. After 1984, T_min and T_max increased considerably, and the urbanization influence on T_min, but not T_max, is observable. The urbanization effect causes an extra increasing trend in T_min with a rate of about 0.6°C/decade and, accordingly, extra decreasing trends in DTR and RH. The analysis of the seasonal trends reveals that the urbanization influence results in a near-uniform increase of T_min for all four seasons and a strong decrease of RH in summer and autumn. Moreover, there is no significant change in P at the annual scale and an increasing rate of 11.8%/decade in summer. With the urbanization influence, a considerable increase in P is noticeable at the annual scale; specifically, the increasing rates of 18.6%/decade in summer and 13.5%/decade in autumn are observed.     

Impacts of temperature on rice yields of different rice cultivation systems in southern China over the past 40 years

The impact of climate change on rice yield in China remains highly uncertain. We examined the impact of the change of maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) on rice yields in southern China from 1967 to 2007. The rice yields were simulated by using the DSSAT3.5 (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)-Rice model. The change of T_max and T_min in rice growing seasons and simulated rice yields as well as their correlations were analyzed. The simulated yields of middle rice and early rice had a decreasing trend, but late rice yields showed a weak rise trend. There was significant negative correlation between T_max and the early rice yields, as well as the late rice yields in most stations, but non-significant negative correlation for the middle rice yields. An obviously negative relationship was found between T_min and the early and middle rice yields, and a significant positive relationship was found between T_min and the late rice yields. It indicated that under the recent climate warming, the increased T_max brought strong negative impacts on early rice yields and late rice yields, but a weak negative impact on the middle rice yields; the increased T_min had a strong negative impact on the middle rice yields and the early rice yields, but a significant positive impact on the late rice yields. It suggested that it is necessary to adjust rice planting date and adapt to higher T_min.     

Correction of TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data over the mountainous areas of Peru during the period 1998–2007

In an attempt to estimate the spatial and temporal behaviour of rainfall over the mountainous areas of the Peruvian Andes, a new in situ monthly rainfall dataset has been collected (1998–2007) and compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 monthly precipitation data for regions located above 3000 m. The reliability of the TRMM 3B43 data varies depending on the root mean squared error ratio (%RMSE) and correlation coefficient. Because of the discrepancy between the two datasets, the use of additive and multiplicative correction models is proposed for the TRMM 3B43 data. In the Peruvian mountain ranges, these correction models better approximate TRMM rainfall monthly values, as already verified for annual values. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty analysis of downscaling methods in assessing the influence of climate change on hydrology

Five downscaling techniques, namely the statistical downscaling model, the automated statistical downscaling method, the change factor (CF) method, the advanced CF method, the Weather generator (LarsWG5) method, are applied to the upstream basin of the Huaihe River. Changes in regional climate scenarios and hydrology variables are compared in future periods to investigate the uncertainty associated with the downscaling techniques. Paired-sample T test is applied to evaluation the significant of the difference of the means between the observed data and the downscaled data in the future. The Xinanjiang rainfall–runoff model is employed to simulate the rainfall–runoff relation. The results demonstrate that the downscaling techniques utilized herein predict an increased tendency in the future. The increases range of maximum temperature (T_max) is between 3.7 and 4.7 °C until the time period of 2070–2099 (2080s). While, the increases range of minimum temperature (T_min) is between 2.8 and 4.9 °C until 2080s. The research presented herein determined that there is an increase predicted for the peaks over threshold (discussed in the paper) and a decrease predicted for the peaks below the threshold (discussed in the paper) in the future, which illustrates that the temperature would rise gradually in the future. Precipitation changes are not as obvious as temperatures changes and tend to be influence by the season. Most downscaling techniques predict increases, and others indict decreases. The annual mean precipitation range changes between 3.2 and 53.3 %, and moreover, these changes vary from season to season.     

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) of snow‐avalanche impact ramparts in southern Norway: approaches,results and implications for landform age,dynamics and development

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) was applied to the problem of dating the diachronous surfaces of five distal river‐bank boulder ramparts deposited by snow avalanches plunging into the Jostedøla and Sprongdøla rivers in the Jostedalsbreen region of southern Norway. Approaches to local high‐precision linear age calibration, which controlled in different ways for boulder roundness, were developed. The mean age (SHD_mean) and the maximum age (SHD_max) of surface boulders were estimated for whole ramparts, crests and distal fringes. Interpretation was further assisted by reference to R‐value distributions. SHD_mean ages (with 95% confidence intervals) ranged from 520 ± 270 years to 5375 ± 965 years, whereas SHD_max ages (expected to be exceeded by <5% of surface boulders) ranged from 675 to 9065 years. SHD ages from the Jostedøla ramparts tended to be older than those associated with the Sprongdøla, rampart crests were younger than the respective distal fringes, and use of relatively rounded boulders yielded more consistent SHD ages than angular boulders. The SHD_mean ages indicate differences in recent levels of snow‐avalanche activity between ramparts and provide insights into rampart dynamics as boulders are deposited on rampart crests and, in smaller numbers, on the distal fringes. SHD_max ages provide minimum age estimates of rampart age (i.e. the time elapsed since the ramparts began to form) and suggest that at least some of the ramparts have been developing since the early Holocene. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of species and rain event characteristics on stemflow volume in a temperate mixed oak–beech stand

This study aimed at analysing the effects of biological and meteorological factors on stemflow generation in a temperate mixed oak (Quercus petraea Liebl.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stand. A statistical model was developed to predict single‐event individual stemflow volume from trunk circumference and rainfall depth allowing mechanistic stemflow parameters to be deduced from the model, namely stemflow rates (SF_rate), storage of water on tree organs (S_t) and rainfall thresholds for stemflow (RF_min). SF_rate and S_t increased with increasing trunk circumference while RF_min was not significantly influenced by tree size. RF_min and, for a given tree size, S_t were higher for oak than for beech, and inversely for SF_rate. For each species, RF_min was higher for the leaved season than for the leafless period, while the opposite was found for SF_rate, and S_t was not significantly affected by the season. Increasing wind speed during rain increased SF_rate, lowered RF_min and did not influence S_t. In contrast, S_t and RF_min tended, respectively, to decrease and to increase with increasing values of the ratio between the cumulated potential evaporation during the dry period preceding the rain event and the volume of the preceding rainfall (Eva p_ADP/R_previous). Stemflow volume, which results from the combined effects of the previous parameters, was higher for beech than for oak and also higher during the leafless period than during the leaved period; these differences were large for the smallest events but decreased rapidly as rainfall depth increased. In addition, an enhancing and a depressing effect on stemflow volume were shown for the average wind speed during rain and for the ratio Eva p_ADP/R_previous, respectively. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface heat balance and pan evaporation trends in Eastern Asia in the period 1971–2000

Climatic variations over Eastern Asia, including the Tibetan Plateau, were analysed using meteorological data for 32 points in the period 1971 to 2000. Changes in heat and water balances were examined using potential evaporation E_P, and a wetness index WI, as suggested by Kondo and Xu ( 1997a,b ). Climate zones, including the humid, semi‐humid, semi‐arid and arid climate types, in Eastern Asia identified by the wetness index matched the vegetation distribution. Average monthly temperatures increased over the 30 years, with the sharpest increase in February. In general, temperature increases were larger in the north than in the south. Air temperature increased by more than 0·05 K yr⁻¹ in northern China. The data showed that diurnal temperature ranges have decreased in recent years. From the Tibetan Plateau, through central China, to southern northeast China, there has been an increase in potential evaporation and pan evaporation, which may be related to both higher temperatures and a lack of surface water. Increasing long‐wave radiation flux is apparent in every month and in the interannual trends. This is in contrast to the solar radiation flux. On the other hand, trends for relative humidity and cloud cover were negative, but positive for water vapour pressure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interpretation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation‐related precipitation anomalies in north‐western Borneo using isotopic tracers

We examined rainfall anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in northern Sarawak, Malaysia, using the oxygen isotopic composition of rainfall. Two precipitation‐sampling campaigns were conducted for isotope analysis: (a) at the Lambir Hill National Park (4.2° N, 114.0° E) from July 2004 to October 2006 and (b) at the Gunung Mulu National Park (3.9° N, 114.8° E) from January 2006 to July 2008. The records from these campaigns were merged with a previously published rainfall isotope dataset from Gunung Mulu site to create a 7‐year‐long record of the oxygen isotopic composition of Sarawak rainfall. The record exhibits clear intraseasonal variations (ISVs) with periods ranging from 10 to 70 days. The ISVs of 10‐ to 90‐day band‐pass filtered oxygen isotopic composition are linked to the synoptic‐scale precipitation anomalies over the southern South China Sea (SCS). The lead–lag correlation map of precipitation with the filtered oxygen isotope anomalies shows that an anomalous wet condition responsible for the decrease in oxygen isotopic composition appears over the SCS in association with the passage of north‐eastward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in the summer monsoon season. The anomalous wet condition in spring is connected with eastward‐propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), whereas the sustained wet condition in winter is responsible for the occurrence of the Borneo vortex (BV) over the SCS. ENSO modulates the frequency of these synoptic conditions on a seasonal and longer time scale, showing a strong correlation between the seasonal isotopic anomalies and the Southern Oscillation index. We therefore discern, from the significant correlation between the isotope anomalies and area‐averaged Sarawak rainfall anomalies (R = ?0.65, p < 0.01), that ENSO‐related precipitation anomalies are linked to the seasonal modulation of the BSISO and MJO activity and BV genesis.     

Woody buffer effects on water temperature: The role of spatial configuration and daily temperature fluctuations

Water temperature is a key driver for riverine biota and strongly depends on shading by woody riparian vegetation in summer. While the general effects of shading on daily maximum water temperature T_max are well understood, knowledge gaps on the role of the spatial configuration still exist. In this study, the effect of riparian buffer length, width, and canopy cover (percentage of buffer area covered by woody vegetation) on T_max was investigated during summer baseflow using data measured in seven small lowland streams in western Germany (wetted width 0.8–3.7 m). The effect of buffer length on T_max differed between downstream cooling and heating: T_max approached cooler equilibrium conditions after a distance of 0.4 km (~45 min travel-time) downstream of a sharp increase in canopy cover. In contrast, T_max continued to rise downstream of a sharp decrease in canopy cover along the whole 1.6 km stream length investigated. The effect of woody vegetation on T_max depended on buffer width, with changes in canopy cover in a 10 m wide buffer being a better predictor for changes in T_max compared to a 30 m buffer. The effect of woody vegetation on T_max was linearly related to canopy cover but also depended on daily temperature range T_range, which itself was governed by cloudiness, upstream canopy cover, and season. The derived empirical relationship indicated that T_max was reduced by −4.6°C and increased by +2.7°C downstream of a change from unshaded to fully shaded conditions and vice versa. This maximum effect was predicted for a 10 m wide buffer at sunny days in early summer, in streams with large diel fluctuations (large T_range). Therefore, even narrow woody riparian buffers may substantially reduce the increase in T_max due to climate change, especially in small shallow headwater streams with low baseflow discharge and large daily temperature fluctuations.     

Reference evapotranspiration trends and their sensitivity to climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau (1970–2009)

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the water and energy balance. It is dependent on climate. Precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity, and wind all contribute to the rate of evapotranspiration. In this study, the temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) and four main ET_ref drivers, namely, mean air temperature (T_a), wind speed (u₂), net radiation (R_n) and actual vapour pressure (e_a) from 1970 to 2009, were calculated based on 75 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that the ET_ref on the Tibetan Plateau decreased on average by 0.6909 mm a^‐1a^‐1 from 1970 to 2009. T_a and e_a showed an increasing trend, whereas u₂ and R_n exhibited a decreasing trend. To explore the underlying causes of the ET_ref variation, an attribution analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of T_a, u₂, R_n and e_a, which showed that the changes in u₂, R_n and e_a produced the negative effect, whereas T_a produced the positive effect on ET_ref rates. The changes in u₂ were found to produce the largest decrease (?0.7 mm) in ET_ref, followed by e_a (?0.4 mm) and R_n (?0.1 mm). Although the significant increase in T_a had a large positive effect (0.51 mm) on ET_ref rates, changes in the other three variables each reduced ET_ref rates, resulting in an overall negative trend in ET_ref. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short‐term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (T_s) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long‐term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based on short‐term historical T_s observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (T_a) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in T_s. Models were developed for 61 sites in the southeastern USA using ≥18 months of observations and were validated at sites with longer periods of record. The T_s models were then used to estimate temporal changes in T_s at each site using both historical estimates and future T_a projections. Results suggested that the linear regression models adequately explained the variability in T_s across sites, and the relationships between T_s and T_a remained consistent over 37 years. We estimated that most sites had increases in historical annual mean T_s between 1961 and 2010 (mean of +0.11 °C decade^?1). All 61 sites were projected to experience increases in T_s from 2011 to 2060 under the three climate projections evaluated (mean of +0.41 °C decade^?1). Several of the sites with the largest historical and future T_s changes were located in ecoregions home to temperature‐sensitive fish species. This methodology can be used by resource managers for rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events, and possible effects of climate change

Interannual variability is an important modulator of synoptic and intraseasonal variability in South America. This paper seeks to characterize the main modes of interannual variability of seasonal precipitation and some associated mechanisms. The impact of this variability on the frequency of extreme rainfall events and the possible effect of anthropogenic climate change on this variability are reviewed. The interannual oscillations of the annual total precipitation are mainly due to the variability in austral autumn and summer. While autumn is the dominant rainy season in the northern part of the continent, where the variability is highest (especially in the northeastern part), summer is the rainy season over most of the continent, thanks to a summer monsoon regime. In the monsoon season, the strongest variability occurs near the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which is one of the most important features of the South American monsoon system. In all seasons but summer, the most important source of variability is ENSO (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation), although ENSO shows a great contribution also in summer. The ENSO impact on the frequency of extreme precipitation events is also important in all seasons, being generally even more significant than the influence on seasonal rainfall totals. Climate change associated with increasing emission of greenhouse gases shows potential to impact seasonal amounts of precipitation in South America, but there is still great uncertainty associated with the projected changes, since there is not much agreement among the models’ outputs for most regions in the continent, with the exception of southeastern South America and southern Andes. Climate change can also impact the natural variability modes of seasonal precipitation associated with ENSO.     

ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers

This paper examines the relationship between the annual discharges of the Amazon, Congo, Paran á, and Nile rivers and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since river systems are comprehensive integrators of rainfall over large areas, accurate characterization of the flow regimes in major rivers will increase our understanding of large-scale global atmospheric dynamics. Results of this study reveal that the annual discharges of two large equatorial tropical rivers, the Amazon and the Congo, are weakly and negatively correlated with the equatorial Pacific SST anomalies with 10% of the variance in annual discharge explained by ENSO. Two smaller subtropical rivers, the Nile and the Paraná, show a correlation that is stronger by about a factor of 2. The Nile discharge is negatively correlated with the SST anomaly, whereas the Paraná river discharge shows a positive relation. The tendency for reduced rainfall/discharge over large tropical convection zones in the ENSO warm phase is attributed to global scale subsidence associated with major upwelling in the eastern Pacific Ocean.     

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

This study investigates reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) trends in China from 1960 to 2012 based on the Penman–Monteith equation and gridded meteorological measurements. Under the combined impacts of factors influencing ET₀ (i.e., net radiation [RN], mean temperature [TAVE], vapour pressure deficit [VPD], and wind speed [WND]), both seasonal and annual ET₀ for the whole China and more than half of the grids decreased over the past 53 years. The attribution analyses suggest that for the whole China, the WND is responsible for annual and seasonal ET₀ decreases (excluding summer, where RN is responsible). Across China, the annual cause of WND with the largest spatial extent (43.1% of grids) mainly derives from north of the Changjiang River Basin (CJRB), whereas VPD (RN) as a cause is dispersedly distributed (within and to the south of the CJRB). In summer, RN is dominant in more than half of the grids, but the dominance of VPD and WND accounts for approximately 90% of grids during the remaining seasons. Finally, the correlation coefficients between ET₀ and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO), North AO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices with different lead times are calculated. For the whole China, annual and seasonal ET₀ always significantly correlate with these indices (excluding the IOD) but with varied lead times. Additionally, near half of the grids show significant and maximum (i.e., the largest one between ET₀ and a certain index with a lead time of 0–3 seasons) correlation coefficients of ET₀ with PDO in spring and summer, ENSO in autumn, and AO in winter. This study is not only significant for understanding ET₀ changes, but it also provides preliminary and fundamental reference information for ET₀ prediction.