An Observation Operator for Radar Refractivity Change: Comparison of Observations and Convective-Scale Simulations

Weather radar refractivity depends on low-level moisture, temperature, and pressure and is available at high space–time resolutions over large areas. It is of definite meteorological interest for assimilation, verification, and process-study purposes. In this study, the path-averaged refractivity change is simulated from the Arome cloud-resolving atmospheric system analyses and compared with corresponding radar observations over a 35-day period with various meteorological conditions. For that, a novel post-processing procedure is applied to radar data to improve its quality. Also, an observation operator is developed that ingests Arome analyses and simulates a 3-h path-averaged refractivity change. A sensitivity study shows that simulated path-averaged refractivity change is immune to the modelling of the beam height as long as it remains below approximately 60 m above the ground. Comparisons show overall consistency between observed and simulated path-averaged refractivity change, with discrepancies at times that suggest an improvement in analyses once radar refractivity change observations are assimilated. Finally, errors introduced when retrieving local refractivity from path-averaged refractivity are estimated and it is found for our dataset that such retrievals halve the range of usable observations.     

Links Between Weather Phenomena and Characteristics of Refractivity Measured by Precipitation Radar

Refractivity depends on meteorological parameters such as temperature and water vapour pressure and can be measured using a weather radar. A realistic atmospheric simulation from the Meso-NH numerical model is used in order to describe and establish the relation between refractivity and the dynamic and thermodynamic phenomena responsible for the development and propagation of convection. These investigations lead to discussion of the complementarity between the refractivity and the convective available potential energy. The relation observed between the refractivity signal and the meteorological parameters calls the refractivity measurement into question, since it is based on phase differentiation with time and space and can be degraded by phase aliasing problems. These aliasing problems increase with the radar frequency (perceptible in the S-band, serious in the C-band, and more serious in the X-band) and also with the integration range and sampling time. Thus, a statistical approach permits us to simulate the possibility of measuring the refractivity with operational radar during convective events. A typical case in the south-east region of France is selected to simulate measurements by radar (S-band, C-band, X-band) in convective systems, in order to evaluate the measurement feasibility, particularly in terms of phase ambiguity, related to temporal and spatial sampling, of a future implementation of the refractivity measurement over the French operational radar network. This numerical statistical approach is completed with a similar study using in-situ measurements performed at the Trappes station. The seasonal and diurnal dependencies of aliasing are investigated, leading to clarification of the impact of the turbulent fluxes on the refractivity measurement.     

大气折射率起伏对雷达波的散射

研究大气折射率起伏对雷达波的散射时,得到的主要結果有以下两点: 1.在适当的大气条件下,折射率起伏构成的后向散射波能够超出一般雷达的灵敏度之上,它的量級正好和雷达观測到的气象“仙波”相同.根据这一結果和其他事实,作者认为起伏的后向散射可能是形成气象“仙波”的重要机制。 2.推导了表示雷达波在折射率有起伏的介貭中传播时,强度随距离变化的方程式,結果发現:一般情况下,散射效应不致引起波的强度的显著变化.但是,当大气折射率起伏的尺度长較小、輻度較大、并且雷达波瓣較窄时,散射效应会引起波瓣的加寬。     

Tropospheric Wet Refractivity Tomography Based on the BeiDou Satellite System简

This paper presents a novel approach for assessing the precision of the wet refractivity field using BDS （BeiDou navigation satellite system） simulations only,GPS,and BDS＋GPS for the Shenzhen and Hongkong GNSS network.The simulations are carried out by adding artificial noise to a real observation dataset.Instead of using the δ and σ parameters computed from slant wet delay,as in previous studies,we employ the Bias and RMS parameters,computed from the tomography results of total voxels,in order to obtain a more direct and comprehensive evaluation of the precision of the refractivity field determination.The results show that：（1） the precision of tropospheric wet refractivity estimated using BDS alone （only 9 satellites used） is basically comparable to that of GPS; （2） BDS＋GPS （as of current operation） may not be able to significantly improve the data＇s spatial density for the application of refractivity tomography; and （3） any slight increase in the precision of refractivity tomography,particularly in the lower atmosphere,bears great significance for any applications dependent on the Chinese operational meteorological service.     

A maritime boundary-layer model for the prediction of fog

A two-dimensional boundary-layer model is described. The model is designed to predict and study the effects of meteorological changes on the formation and dissipation of fog and stratus. Radiational heat loss along with the transport of static energy, moisture and momentum are treated. Cloud droplet distributions are parameterized using a gamma distribution from which radiative properties and droplet fall velocities are computed. Turbulent exchange coefficients are calculated using the Monin-Obukhov theory of similitude which accounts for variations in atmospheric stability. Although the boundary-layer depth depends only on turbulent intensity during stable atmospheric conditions, its growth during unstable conditions is determined from the capping inversion's intensity and the amount of turbulence generated at the surface.Several experiments are presented which demonstrate the effects of various meteorological parameters on the formation and duration of stratus and fog. Energy-budget analyses show the importance of each of the physical processes being modeled.Although not new, radiative transfer processes are shown to be extremely important in the transfer of heat from the boundary layer and in the process of fog formation. Fog formation location is highly sensitive to the moisture content upstream, whereas changes in wind speed had much less effect in the variance of fog location.Numerical experiments with other processes such as back radiation from the atmosphere, haze and cloud droplet population, are described and shown to have smaller effects.     

玉米螟越冬死亡率的气象条件及其预报模型研究

根据1994-2004年黑山气象资料和玉米螟越冬期资料,采用通径分析方法,对玉米螟越冬期的气象条件与死亡率的关系进行分析,建立了4月和5月死亡率的预报模型。结果表明：玉米螟受3-5月的气象因子影响较大,死亡率明显高于越冬前的死亡率,建立的模型能够反映玉米螟越冬期气象条件与死亡率的响应关系,可在实际预报业务中作为参考依据。考虑越冬前死亡率的预报拟合率明显高于不考虑越冬前死亡率的模拟结果,说明在对玉米螟进行预报时,只考虑气象因子,不考虑虫源基数是不全面的。     

气象因素对常州市区PM2.5浓度影响

利用2016—2018年常州市区环境空气细颗粒物数据,结合同期地面气象资料,分析了常州市区PM_2.5以及气象因素的变化特征,并统计分析气象因素对PM_2.5浓度的影响。结果表明：常州市区PM_2.5、降水量、相对湿度和气温等具有明显季节性,呈夏季较高冬季较低,而气压夏季较低冬季较高的特征。相对湿度与PM_2.5呈正相关,即随着相对湿度的增加PM_2.5超标率和平均浓度均增加;降水对PM_2.5具有一定的清除作用,清除率与降水前PM_2.5浓度、降水量、降水强度有关,降水量、降水强度越大,则降水清除效果越好,而降水前PM_2.5浓度较小,则清除率不明显;常州市区偏西风时PM_2.5的超标率和平均浓度较其他风向较高;风速对常州市区PM_2.5的影响呈负相关,即风速越大PM_2.5超标率和平均浓度均减小;常州市区地面天气形势可以分为两种类型,第一种类型表现为气压较低气温较高,PM_2.5超标率以及平均浓度相对较低,而第二种类型表现为气压较高气温较低,PM_2.5超标率以及平均浓度相对较高。     

Molecular dissipation of turbulent fluctuations in the convective mixed layer part I: Height variations of dissipation rates

During the Limagne and Beauce experiments, the INAG-IGN Aerocommander FL 280 aircraft made extensive ‘in situ’ measurements of turbulent fluctuations in diurnally evolving convective boundary layers. In this paper, these measurements were used to investigate characteristics of the molecular dissipation of turbulent fluctuations through the mixed layer and well into the overlying stable layer. The dimensionless dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy, temperature and humidity variances, and temperature-humidity covariance (ψ, ψ_θ, ψ _qand ψ _θq) were computed and their height variations analysed. The behaviour of the dissipation rate ψ was found to differ significantly from those observed for the other rates. In the lowest region of the mixed layer, ψ does not obey the local free convection prediction. Instead, it follows practically a relationship similar to the one established in the surface layer by Wyngaard et al. (1971). The dissipation rate ψ remains fairly constant in the bulk of the mixed layer (0.3 ≤ z/Z _i≤ 0.8) and shows a very rapid decrease above the inversion. These results confirm those reported previously from the Minnesota and Ashchurch data by Kaimal et al. (1976), Caughey and Palmer (1979), etc. The height variations for the other dissipation rates were found to obey, as expected, the (z/Z _i)^-4/3 decrease predicted under the local free convection similarity hypothesis in the lowest region of the mixed layer. This region extends to the height z/Z _i- 0.4, 0.1, and 0.3, respectively, for ψ_θ, ψ_q, and ψ_θq. Above these levels, the dissipation rates ψ_θ and ψ_q show, on average, a slight increase to reach peak-values near the mixed-layer top, while the ‘dissipation’ rate ψ _θqchanges sign from positive to negative around the height z/Z _i, - 0.7. These characteristics confirm the fact that the structures of temperature and humidity fluctuations are considerably affected by their entrainment-induced fluctuations. Therefore, an attempt has been made to non-dimensionalize the dissipation rates near the mixed-layer top with the interfacial scaling factors.     

Recent precipitation trends over the polar ice sheets

Summary Meteorological and glaciological analyses are integrated to examine the precipitation trends during the last three decades over the ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland. For Antarctica, the best data source is provided by glaciologically-measured trends of snow accumulation, and for limited sectors of East Antarctica consistency with precipitation amounts calculated from the atmospheric water balance equation is obtained. For Greenland, precipitation rates parameterized from atmospheric analyses yield the only comprehensive depiction. The precipitation rate over Antarctica appears to have increased by about 5% over a time period spanning the accumulation means for the 1955–65 to 1965–75 periods, while over Greenland it has decreased by about 15% since 1983 with a secondary increase over the southern part of the ice sheet starting in 1977. At the end of the 10-year overlapping period, the global sea-level impact of the precipitation changes over Antarctica dominates that for Greenland and yields a net ice-sheet precipitation contribution of roughly 0.02 mm yr^–1. These changes are likely due to marked variations in the cyclonic forcing affecting the ice sheets, but are only weakly reflected in the temperature regime, consistent with the episodic nature of cyclonic precipitation. These conclusions are not founded on high quality data bases. The importance of such changes for understanding global sea-level variations argues for a modest research effort to collect simultaneous meteorological and glaciological observations in order to describe and understand the current precipitation variations over both ice sheets. Some suggestions are offered for steps that could be taken.With 8 Figures     

用常规探空资料估算Cn2和ε垂直变化初探

用南京、射阳的常规探空资料建立了估算折射率结构常数C_n²和湍能耗散率ε垂直变化理论模式。结果表明:用该理论模式计算的ε值与用天气脉冲多普勒雷达探测的速度谱宽σ_r²再估算得到的ε值有较好的一致性。     

Turbulence in Continental Stratocumulus,Part II: Eddy Dissipation Rates and Large-Eddy Coherent Structures

This study first illustrates the utility of using the Doppler spectrum width from millimetre wavelength radar to calculate the energy dissipation rate and then to use the energy dissipation rate to study turbulence structure in a continental stratocumulus cloud. It is shown that the turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate calculated from the radar-measured Doppler spectrum width agrees well with that calculated from the Doppler velocity power spectrum. During the 16-h stratocumulus cloud event, the small-scale turbulence contributes 40 % of the total velocity variance at cloud base, 50 % at normalized cloud depth = 0.8 and 70 % at cloud top, which suggests that small-scale turbulence plays a critical role near the cloud top where the entrainment and cloud-top radiative cooling act. The 16-h mean vertical integral length scale decreases from about 160 m at cloud base to 60 m at cloud top, and this signifies that the larger scale turbulence dominates around cloud base whereas the small-scale turbulence dominates around cloud top. The energy dissipation rate, total variance and squared spectrum width exhibit diurnal variations, but unlike marine stratocumulus they are high during the day and lowest around sunset at all levels; energy dissipation rates increase at night with the intensification of the cloud-top cooling. In the normalized coordinate system, the averaged coherent structure of updrafts is characterized by low energy dissipation rates in the updraft core and higher energy dissipation rates surround the updraft core at the top and along the edges. In contrast, the energy dissipation rate is higher inside the downdraft core indicating that the downdraft core is more turbulent. The turbulence around the updraft is weaker at night and stronger during the day; the opposite is true around the downdraft. This behaviour indicates that the turbulence in the downdraft has a diurnal cycle similar to that observed in marine stratocumulus whereas the turbulence diurnal cycle in the updraft is reversed. For both updraft and downdraft, the maximum energy dissipation rate occurs at a cloud depth = 0.8 where the maximum reflectivity and air acceleration or deceleration are observed. Resolved turbulence dominates near cloud base whereas unresolved turbulence dominates near cloud top. Similar to the unresolved turbulence, the resolved turbulence described by the radial velocity variance is higher in the downdraft than in the updraft. The impact of the surface heating on the resolved turbulence in the updraft decreases with height and diminishes around the cloud top. In both updrafts and downdrafts, the resolved turbulence increases with height and reaches a maximum at cloud depth = 0.4 and then decreases to the cloud top; the resolved turbulence near cloud top, just as the unresolved turbulence, is mostly due to the cloud-top radiative cooling.     

福州市污染物浓度时空分布及影响因子分析

利用2001年8月1日至2002年7月31日的气象资料和逐时污染物浓度数据，分析福州市污染物的时空分布特征，气象条件和非气象条件对污染物浓度的影响。结果表明：福州市的空气质量较好，夏半年空气质量优于冬半年。各污染物的日变化有明显的变化规律。污染物的浓度变化与空气污染气象条件的优劣密切相关，各气象要素对大气污染物有一定的制约关系，但并非简单的线性关系。人类活动对污染物浓度的变化影响较大。     

Climatic change in southern Africa: Past and present conditions and possible future scenarios

A brief review of climatic changes over the last 800 000 years in southern Africa is presented. The greatest emphasis is placed on those changes occurring during the Holocene and the period of meteorological record. Twentieth-century rainfall variations and their spatial manifestations are examined, and scenarios of possible future conditions are presented.     

消化性溃疡病的医学气象研究

根据1984～1993年北京友谊医院的病例资料和北京地区同期气象资料的对比分析,揭示了消化性溃疡病检出率的季节变化规律和年际变化特点以及不同季节该病症高发过程的气象条件,并在此基础上应用最优子集回归法设计了对冬、秋、夏各季检出率具有预测意义的数学模型。     

北京地区脑卒中发病率的气象条件研究

根据北京抽样人群的脑卒中发病资料和前期气象资料的对比分析,揭示出不同年龄段人群发病率的年变化特点和多年变化趋势,讨论了前期气象因子与发病率的关系,并在此基础上设计对发病率有预测意义的分辨率为５级的统计模型,经Ｆ检验表明,预测效果较好。     

晋西北地区马铃薯生态需水量对气候变化的响应

基于晋西北地区8个地面气象站1960~2010年的气象资料及马铃薯生育期平均资料,运用P-M公式,计算了马铃薯生态需水量,分析了生态需水量的时间演变特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:晋西北地区马铃薯生态需水量整体上呈显著下降趋势,但不同时段下降幅度差异较大;风速和日照时数的变化对马铃薯生态需水量的影响最为突出。气候变暖对该地区马铃薯生态需水量的影响表明,气温的升高会增加马铃薯的需水量,且不同地区需水量的增幅不尽相同,气候变暖对寒冷地区马铃薯需水量的影响更加显著。     

2019年贵州省夏收粮油作物生长季农业气候评价

根据贵州省84个气象观测站的资料,分析2018-2019年夏收粮油作物生长季内的气温、降水、日照3个气象要素的变化特点,结合作物生物学特性对气象的要求,并与历史同期气候条件进行对比,评估2018-2019年夏收粮油作物生长季内气候条件对农业生产的影响。结论为:小麦主产区大部光温水条件匹配较好。油菜生长季前期光热条件较差,生育期明显推迟,长势差于2018年,但后期天气转好,利于推进油菜生育进程和产量形成。春播马铃薯气候条件明显好于冬播马铃薯,利于全年马铃薯产量的稳产,冬播马铃薯主产区受阴雨寡照天气影响明显。夏收粮油作物全生育期内无大范围重大农业气象灾害,农业气象条件总体有利于夏收粮油作物生长发育和产量形成,属于较好农业气候年景。     

天津市超高层建筑暖通空调设计气象参数评估

利用255m天津气象塔数据定量评估了建筑暖通空调设计气象参数随高度的变化及其对设计负荷的影响,建立了一种气温垂直模型,明确了该模型可推算超高层建筑室外气温,基于此推算超高层建筑暖通空调室外设计气象参数。结果表明:在5—200m处,供暖设计温度、冬季空调室外设计温度和夏季空调室外设计干球温度均随高度降低,200m与5m高度处相比,分别降低2.0℃、1.4℃和2.8℃,导致供暖和冬季空调设计负荷分别增加5.78%和1.36%,而夏季空调设计负荷减少5.85%。基于气温垂直模型得到的200—500m气温数据计算气象参数,发现从200m到500m,供暖设计温度、冬季空调室外设计温度和夏季空调室外设计干球温度均随高度降低,降幅分别为0.52℃/100m、0.50℃/100m和0.66℃/100m。本研究表明,基于地面2m高观测数据计算的建筑暖通空调设计气象参数无法满足超高层建筑暖通空调设计需求,应充分考虑气象参数的垂直变化,选择合理的气象参数,为超高层建筑暖通空调设计提供基础,以保证室内热舒适环境达标,达到降低建筑能耗的目的。     

典型站点气溶胶对云特性的影响

结合Cloud Sat对云的主动观测和MODIS(MODerate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)对气溶胶的被动反演,研究了典型站点气溶胶对云的宏观、微观和辐射特性的影响。结果表明,气溶胶对大陆性和海洋性站点的云均有显著影响。1)随气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)增加,水汽含量较弱站点的低层(高层)云量呈减小(增加)趋势,而水汽条件较强站点的各层云量均增大,且具有较高(较低)云顶的云层发生概率在各个站点都呈增加(减小)趋势。2)AOD的增大导致各站点云滴和冰晶粒子的有效半径均减小、大气层顶的短波和长波云辐射强迫均增强、短波云辐射强迫绝对值的加强更显著、长波云辐射强迫增加的幅度相对更大。3)气象要素在AOD大(小)值情况下的变化表明,大尺度动力条件并不能解释云的上述特性随AOD的显著改变。     

北京雾与霾天气大气液态水含量和相对湿度层结特征分析

为了研究空气中的水汽层结变化对雾、霾生消的影响,对北京2011年10月至2012年2月雾、霾天气个例中能见度变化和地基微波辐射计观测的相对湿度及液态水含量资料进行分析,结果表明:大气总液态水含量时序图对预报雾、霾没有参考意义,无论是大气总液态水含量数值的大小,还是大气总液态水含量随时间的变化都不能预测雾、霾的生成与消散。但不同时刻大气液态水含量的廓线图对雾、霾天气的预报还是具有指示意义的,因为雾、霾生消前后大气液态水含量层结变化明显。进一步分析不同情况的雾、霾天气发现:雾、霾生消前后均无降水出现和先出大雾后降水的情况,即降水后消散的雾、霾天气,大气相对湿度的变化和液态水含量的变化主要集中在3 km以下;对于先降水后出大雾的情况,整层大气相对湿度的变化都很明显,液态水含量的变化主要在3~7 km之间。由于降水既可以增加近地面的空气湿度,又可以消耗空气中的水汽,因此降水既是大雾形成的有利条件,也是大雾消散的有利条件。有降水出现的大雾天气,有饱和层(空气相对湿度达到或接近100%),无降水出现的重霾天气,则没有饱和层,且整体相对湿度偏低。