Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014

The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961–2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961–2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961–2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.

     

Measurements of the surface layer turbulence in the urban area

The turbulence characteristics measured in the surface layer over a real underlying surface are presented. The measurements are carried out at the 3- and 16-m levels using acoustic anemometers; at the lower level, the measurements are doubled. The diurnal cycle is obtained of the temperature flux and friction velocity. To obtain the temperature flux, so-called “acoustic” temperature is used as calculated from the sound speed data with corrections for air humidity and pressure. The normalized characteristics of turbulence are presented as dependent on dimensionless height z/L. The values of temperature flux and friction velocity increase with height: their day-integral values at 16-m level exceed those at 3-m level for about 20 and 35%, respectively.     

甘肃“5.5”黑风暴跃变分析

用递归相似理论对１９９３年５月５日发生在甘肃省金昌市的一次特大黑风暴过程作了跃变分析，该理论中的跃变定义为身前数个状态不能完全表达当前状态的程度。     

Declining Ice Thickness on an Alpine Lake is Generated by Increased Winter Precipitation

A 20-year record of ice thickness in late-March on an alpine lake in the Colorado Front Range shows a consistent thinning of the ice cover at 2.0 cm/yr(r = –0.931; N = 16; p < 0.01) during a period of increasing precipitation. The correlation between ice thickness and precipitation in the preceding Oct.–Mar. period is –0.439 (N = 16; p < 0.10),reflecting the insulating effect of an increase in snow cover on the lake. A second effect derived from increased precipitation occurs through additional water storage in the lake's catchment during the previous summer. This leads to a corresponding increase in groundwater flow to the lake during the winter, with a correlation between ice thickness and groundwater storage at the end of the preceding September of –0.656 (N = 16; p < 0.01). Whencombined, these two effects account for 50% of the variability in ice thickness(R = 0.714; N = 16; p < 0.01). Thus, much of the decline in ice thicknessin March is explained by two influences derived from an increase in winter precipitation: one associated with the current winter's precipitation and one with that of the previous winter.     

Changes in the Number and Timing of Days of Ice-Affected Flow on Northern New England Rivers, 1930–2000

Historical dates of ice-affected flows for 16 rural, unregulated rivers in northern New England, USA were analyzed. The total annual days of ice-affected flow decreased significantly (p < 0.1) over the 20th century at 12 of the 16 rivers. On average, for the nine longest-record rivers, the total annual days of ice-affected flow decreased by 20 days from 1936 to 2000, with most of the decrease occurring from the 1960s to 2000. Four of the 16 rivers had significantly later first dates of ice-affected flow in the fall. Twelve of the 16 rivers had significantly earlier last dates of ice-affected flow in the spring. On average, the last dates became earlier by 11 days from 1936 to 2000 with most of the change occurring from the 1960s to 2000. The total annual days of ice-affected flow were significantly correlated with November through April air temperatures (r = −0.70) and with November through April precipitation (r = −0.52). The last spring dates were significantly correlated with March through April air temperatures (r = −0.73) and with January through April precipitation (r = −0.37). March mean river flows increased significantly at 13 of the 16 rivers in this study.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Baseline atmospheric condensation nuclei at Cape Grim 1977–1987

The meaning of baseline as applied to measurements of CN, at atmospheric monitoring sites such as Cape Grim, is discussed and the idea that a baseline exists only in a statistical sense advocated. Use of the concentration frequency-distribution geometric-mean is proposed as the best measure of CN concentrations. Variations in CN concentrations at Cape Grim for periods greater than 12 months are derived by Kalman filtering the monthly estimates of geometric mean concentration obtained from 1977 to 1987. Significant variations are shown to be present on this timescale with quasi-periodic oscillations in concentration. Some association between major fluctuations and El-Nino Southern Oscillation perturbations in the regional circulation is suggested.     

Surface-Layer Fluxes in Stable Conditions

Micrometeorological tower data from the Microfronts experiment are analyzed. Scale-dependencies of the flux and flux sampling error are combined to automatically determine Reynolds turbulence cut-off time scales for computing fluxes from time series. The computed downward heat flux at the 3 m height averaged over nine nights with 7.3 hours each night is 20% greater than the downward heat flux computed at the 10 m height. In contrast, there is only a 1.2% difference between 3 m and 10 m heat fluxes averaged over daytime periods, and there is less than a 2% difference between 3 m and 10 m momentum fluxes whether averaged over nighttime or daytime periods.Stability functions, M(z/L) and H(z/L) are extended to z/L up to 10, where z is the observational height and L is the Obukhov length. For 0.01 < z/L < 1 the estimated functions generally agree with Businger-Dyer formulations, though the H estimates include more scatter compared to the M estimates. For 1 < z/L < 10, the flux intermittency increases, the flux Richardson number exceeds 0.2, and the number of flux samples decreases. Nonetheless the estimates of the stability function M based on 3-m fluxes are closer to the formula proposed by Beljaars and Holtslag in 1991 while the M functions based on 10-m fluxes appears to be closer to the formula proposed by Businger et al. in 1971. The stability function H levels off at z/L = 0.5.     

Effects of Mesoscale Surface Thermal Heterogeneity on Low-Level Horizontal Wind Speeds

Using large-eddy simulation, we investigate characteristics of horizontal wind speed at 100 m above the ground, with surface heat-flux variations that are sinusoidal with amplitudes of 0, 50, and 200 W m⁻² and wavelengths of 16, 32, and 128 km, and no background flow. When the amplitude is 200 W m⁻², wind speeds induced by the surface-flux variations on scales of 16 and/or 32 km have multiple temporal oscillations from 0600 to 1800 local standard time. The positive peaks first appear before noon. In contrast, for wind speeds induced by the 128-km surface heterogeneity, a single oscillation occurs in the late afternoon, which is much larger than those generated by the 16- and 32-km surface heterogeneity. In addition, at the oscillation onset the kurtosis of the velocity increment over a distance of 1 km significantly increases, which implies intermittency in the generation of 1-km scale eddies. The spatially intermittent energy cascade generated by surface heterogeneity scaled down to 1-km eddies is analogous to the well-known intermittent energy cascade in the inertial subrange. The kurtosis of the 1-km eddies is much larger with the 128-km surface heterogeneity than with the 16- and 32-km heterogeneities. Thus we conclude that localized rapid changes of low-level horizontal wind speed may be caused by significant local surface heterogeneity on scales between a few tens and a few hundreds of kilometres.     

南极长城站大气臭氧和NO2的观测研究

在中国第五次南极考察社长城站的科学研究活动中,开展了与南极臭氧洞有关的大气臭氧和NO_2柱含量的观测。观测采用地面吸收光谱的原理进行。从1988年12月到1989年2月的观测结果表明,长城站区臭氧柱含量平均值为341DU,与常年平均结果相当。NO_2的平均柱含量为2.16×10~(18)cm~(-2)。无论是臭氧或NO_2的柱含量都有明显的日变化。     

Impact of extreme CO2 levels on tropical climate: a CGCM study

A coupled general circulation model has been used to perform a set of experiments with high CO₂ concentration (2, 4, 16 times the present day mean value). The experiments have been analyzed to study the response of the climate system to strong radiative forcing in terms of the processes involved in the adjustment at the ocean–atmosphere interface. The analysis of the experiments revealed a non-linear response of the mean state of the atmosphere and ocean to the increase in the carbon dioxide concentration. In the 16 × CO₂ experiment the equilibrium at the ocean–atmosphere interface is characterized by an atmosphere with a shut off of the convective precipitation in the tropical Pacific sector, associated with air warmer than the ocean below. A cloud feedback mechanism is found to be involved in the increased stability of the troposphere. In this more stable condition the mean total precipitation is mainly due to large-scale moisture flux even in the tropics. In the equatorial Pacific Ocean the zonal temperature gradient of both surface and sub-surface waters is significantly smaller in the 16 × CO₂ experiment than in the control experiment. The thermocline slope and the zonal wind stress decrease as well. When the CO₂ concentration increases by about two and four times with respect to the control experiment there is an intensification of El Niño. On the other hand, in the experiment with 16 times the present-day value of CO₂, the Tropical Pacific variability weakens, suggesting the possibility of the establishment of permanent warm conditions that look like the peak of El Niño.     

A statistical analysis of the power law and the logarithmic law using wind data from a 164 m tower

The wind speed distribution with height is analysed by using hourly data for a full year recorded at 6 levels of a 164 m tower at Nanjing. A statistical error analysis shows that power law and logarithmic law are best applicable when the wind is strong. For the height range from 16 to 164 m, the power law represents the actual speed distribution better than does the logarithmic law.     

超级单体引发的龙卷天气过程分析

利用营口市多普勒天气雷达资料,对2005年8月10日16时10-20分左右营口市东南部六个乡出现的龙卷天气过程进行了简要分析,该龙卷发生前的主要天气形势是:一个东移的东北低涡引导高空槽,沿高空等高线冷干气流与低空的暖湿气流产生对流不稳定层结,超低空南支急流与低空西南风急流以及高空西北风产生的较大垂直风切变,有利于龙卷天气的产生.产生该龙卷的对流系统是由渤海湾生成的片状层状云和积状云混合降水回波.自东向偏北方向移动,15:50以后低层反射率因子的强降水回波移入大连北部与营口南部临近区域,在层状云降水中含有一些零散的和有组织的对流降水回波,主体为一个近似团状的对流系统,而龙卷产生自该系统南端的一个超级单体.最初的中气旋形成于8月10日15:56,相应对流单体的反射率因子还没有呈现出超级单体的特征,随后中气旋迅速发展加强,在16:02-16:08反射率因子形态呈现出经典超级单体的特征:明显的低层入流缺口,入流缺口位于超级单体移动方向(偏东南方向)的右侧,低层的弱回波区和中高层的回波悬垂结构,最大反射率因子超过56 dRz.在龙卷产生前几分钟和龙卷进行过程中,中气旋保持较强,而后迅速减弱,低层入流缺口渐渐消失.在龙卷进行过程中,相应45 dBz超级单体的反射率因子区局限在6 km以下,此系统为低质心的对流系统,产生的天气是龙卷,伴随有大风短时强降水,与冰雹的高质心对流系统有明显区别.同时也初步探讨了引发此次龙卷的生成机制.     

克州一次大风和强降温天气过程分析

对2003年4月14～16日克州出现的大风和强降温天气过程，从高空环流形势、地面冷空气、ECMWF-850hPa温度格点差、本站气象要素进行分析，找出造成这次天气过程的原因。     

T63L16气候模式预报能力的空间尺度分布研究

采用球谐谱展开和方差分析方法,利用1970-2003年NCEP再分析500 hPa高度场资料和国家气候中心T63L16月动力延伸预报业务回报1982-2002年的结果,研究了T63L16模式逐日预报可预报能力的空间尺度依赖特征和对于中期预报的可预报稳定分量.分析表明,T63L16模式预报能力在总波数n上具有各向同性,其主要的误差发生在波数为5-10的天气尺度波.基于对T63L16气候模式500 hPa位势高度场球谐系数内部方差和该物理量气候外部方差之比R演变特征的分析,本文定义了模式26-40 d预报的方差比的平均作为R的临界值来定量地确定T63L16模式对不同空间尺度气象场的可预报期限,并引入波能谱为权重系数研究了模式可预报期限与纬向波数和总波数的关系.结果显示该模式的逐日可预报期限与纬向波数和总波数、以及季节均有关系.可预报期限在整体上随着空尺度的减小而逐渐缩短,但并不是纯粹的单调递减;对于纬向2波分量的可预报期限比3-5波要短,町能是由于该模式对表征东亚大槽和北美大槽的2波的刻画相对不够好.另外,对季节平均的中期预报可预报稳定分量的考察表明,就全球而言,对于提前6 d以上的预报,夏季具有的可预报稳定分量为纬向波数小于12或总波数在17以内,其他季节为纬向波数小于7或总波数小于13;对于提前11-15 d的预报,冬夏两季的可预报稳定分量为纬向波数小于5或总波数小于10,春(秋)季节为纬向波数小于3(2)或总波数不大于8(7).这为针对该尺度发展新的预报策略和方法、改进预报效果,提供了依据.     

Lidar observations of volcanic aerosol content in the atmosphere over Tomsk

Lidar observations carried out in Tomsk in August 2008 enabled to register the peaks of the back scattering ratio at the altitudes of 8–16 and 18–22 km. The computation of air masses movement trajectories demonstrated that the peaks at the altitudes of 8–16 km correspond to the aerosol layers formed as a result of volcanic eruptions on the Aleutian Islands in July–August 2008. The original software package along with the daily wind speed BADC data and HYSPLIT software with the six-hour GDAS data were used for computations. The periods from the time of eruptions to the time of observations amounted to one or two weeks and more. The verification of results of these computations for these long periods was made on the basis of the satellite data on the sulfur dioxide distribution in the atmosphere after the eruption of the Kasatochi volcano. The computation method applied enabled to simulate the main distribution characteristics of sulfur dioxide pollution areas in the atmosphere within one or two weeks after the eruption.     

Internal atmospheric gravity waves near the coast of Antarctica

Two gravity wave events as observed at Georg von Neumayer Station in Antarctica are described and analyzed. Wind and temperature are recorded at a meteorological tower. Surface pressure time series are available from four sites so that rather exact evaluations of phase speed and wavelength are possible. Radiosonde ascents provide information on the structure of the atmosphere above the boundary layer.The pressure traces of both events are dominated by sinusoidal oscillations with a well defined frequency. Related variations of wind and temperature are small during the first event (16 July 1986) as are those of temperature on 29 September 1986. However, wind oscillations are quite large during this second event. An attempt is made to interpret the data in the light of linear gravity theory. It is found that linear gravity waves of frequency and phase speed as observed were able to propagate throughout the troposphere on 16 July. We conjecture on the basis of linear theory that the wave of 29 September was propagating on the surface inversion.     

1.5°C与2°C温升目标下“一带一路”主要陆域气温和降水变化的CMIP6多模式预估

基于CMIP6的16个全球模式试验数据,多模式集合预估了《巴黎协定》1.5°C/2°C温升目标下“一带一路”倡议的主要陆域未来气温和降水变化。与观测相比较,多模式集合能够比较准确地刻画“一带一路”主要陆域1995～2014年气温和降水的空间结构特征。在SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5三种不同路径情景下,相对于工业革命前（1850～1900年）,全球升温1.5°C与2°C分别将发生在2020年代中后期与2040年左右。全球1.5°C与2°C温升目标下,预计“一带一路”陆域平均的气温分别显著升高1.84°C和2.43°C,两者相差0.59°C,模式间标准差分别为0.18°C和0.21°C;区域平均的降水分别显著增加20.14 mm/a和30.02 mm/a,相差9.88 mm/a,模式间标准差分别为10.79 mm/a和13.72 mm/a。两种温升目标下,“一带一路”主要陆域气温空间上均表现为一致性显著增暖,高纬度的增温幅度普遍比低纬度大;降水变化具有明显的空间差异性,地中海与黑海地区、中国南部至中南半岛地区减少,其他地区的降水普遍增加。P-E指数表征的干旱化未来在欧洲地区、中国南部至中南半岛地区、南亚印度东部地区、东南亚和赤道非洲中部地区达到最大。     

2010—2019年浙江暖季短时强降水特征分析

利用2010-2019年浙江省暖季(5-9月)1426个国家站和区域站小时雨量数据和NCEP 1° X 1°逐日4次再分析资料,分析了浙江省暖季短时强降水、极端短时强降水时空分布特征及区域性短时强降水事件,结果表明:①近10年暖季短时强降水频次呈增多趋势,降水强度变化平稳;8月(上旬)降水频次最多,9月(中旬)强度最强...     

Friction velocity scaling in wind wave generation

This note is devoted to the problem of the appropriate scaling of parameters relevant for sea waves, such as wave height, peak frequency, duration, and fetch. In the past, the growth of sea waves has often been analysed in terms of the wind velocity at a fixed height, despite the fact that many authors have stressed the importance of scaling with the friction velocity. This problem would be immaterial if the ratio between the friction velocity and the wind speed at a fixed height were a constant. There is, however, ample evidence that this ratio increases with wind speed (Smith and Banke, 1975; Smith, 1980), in agreement with dimensional considerations by Charnock (1955) on the friction height. As a result, the scaling problem is an important one. In this note we conjecture that the correct procedure is to scale wave parameters with friction velocity, and we discuss experimental evidence for the correctness of this conjecture. Comparing two independent datasets (JONSWAP and KNMI), we find some evidence supporting our ideas. Further confirmation remains desirable, however, and suggestions are made as to how this might be obtained.     

T63模式月动力延伸预报高度场的改进实验

为克服T63模式月动力延伸预报中纬向平均环流的系统性误差较大的情形,文章利用NCEP/NCAR逐候再分析500 hPa高度场资料和非线性时空序列预测理论的局域近似法进行逐候纬向平均高度距平场预报.近30组个例的预报效果分析表明,就1～3旬总体而言,非线性时空序列预测方法对纬向平均高度距平场的预报优于持续性预报和模式动力延伸预报,体现了改善纬向平均高度场的能力.尤其是第3旬的预报,当持续性预报偏差与实况偏差明显增大、动力预报技巧相对于第1旬和第2旬降低时,相空间重构结果仍然保持一定的优势.