区域气象观测站降水资料的统计分析方法探讨

区域气象观测站实现了气象要素的定时、定点观测及实时传输与显示.但从气象服务及资料分析来看,降水资料的分析处理要比其它气象要素的处理更为复杂,本文从技术角度探讨了区域气象观测站的降水资料的统计分析方法,并将这些方法应用到了软件开发过程中.     

区域气象观测站降水资料的统计分析方法探讨

区域气象观测站实现了气象要素的定时、定点观测及实时传输与显示。但从气象服务及资料分析来看,降水资料的分析处理要比其它气象要素的处理更为复杂,本文从技术角度探讨了区域气象观测站的降水资料的统计分析方法,并将这些方法应用到了软件开发过程中。     

Instability indices for the Cyprus area

Summary In this paper, forecasts of thunderstorms for the Cyprus area, are examined, by using various instability indices. In addition, some combinations of the indices are proposed since they proved more successful in thunderstorms forecasting. A statistical method pointed out that the Pickup index (PI) and the suggested combination of the humidity index (HI) with cyclonic curved flow at 500 hPa are more successful than the other ones examined in this study.With 1 Figure     

自动站简易维护

通过对安顺国家基本站自动站运行维护的工作实际,总结出一些维护经验.     

风电场风机覆冰期预报方法

采用Makkonen结冰增长模型镶嵌冰表面辐射融化模型建立适用于风机覆冰的预报模型,基于WRF耦合CALMET综合模式预测结果和风机性能参数驱动模型,进行风机覆冰开始和结束时间的预报.以湖北通山九宫山风电场为研究对象,对2012年12月至2013年12月期间监测到19次风机覆冰进行分析,分别采用提前1d、提前2d、提前...     

MM5、WRF-RUC及T639模式对山东沿海风力预报分级检验

为客观评价不同的数值模式对山东沿海风的预报性能,结合中国气象局降水分级预报评分办法,定义了一种风力预报分级检验办法.对MM5、WRF-RUC和T639模式在山东沿海9个精细化海区代表站的日最大风速预报进行了检验,结果发现:各模式普遍存在对于小风天气预报偏大、大风天气预报偏小的特点.T639模式风力预报偏弱,因此,对于4级以下的风预报评分较高,而对于8级以上大风几乎没有预报能力.MM5和WRF-RUC模式对于4级以上的较强风力的预报结果明显好于T639模式,其中WRF-RUC模式预报准确率稍高于MM5模式,但风力越大,各模式均漏报越多.各模式分析场以及24 h风力预报与实况的一致性检验表明:5级以下的风力,MM5和WRF模式预报风力与实况基本为一致,但对于6级以上的大风,MM5模式预报较分散,WRF模式预报更接近实况风力.综合各模式对于风力预报的平均绝对误差,WRF-RUC模式预报误差最小,具有较高的参考价值.MM5模式预报准确率稍低于WRF-RUC模式,且存在一定的不稳定性.     

用于风电场功率预测的逐时风速预报

为满足风电场精细化风速预报的需要,利用MM5模式的格点输出数值预报产品以及福建沿海地区两座海上测风塔的逐时气象资料,采用逐步回归的统计方法,将MM5数值预报产品与测风塔实测气象资料要素指标值共同引入回归方程,拟合两座测风塔特定高度的逐小时风速预报方程,详细介绍了该方法的实现过程.通过一年的预报效果指标以及15日的独立样本效果检验,结果表明该方法对于逐小时风速的预报有一定的应用价值.     

风电场资源测量系统

介绍了一种新型风电场风能资源测量系统。该系统采用模块化设计,利用现场总线结构的数据采集模块和无线通信技术,实现远程梯度测风,测量风电场风能资源评估所需的气象要素,生成符合国家标准的数据报告。通过1年的试用并对系统采集数据进行分析,证明该系统能有效地测量风能资源,具有提高气象部门拓展气象服务领域的能力。     

自动站常见故障及其解决方法

指出了自动气象站常见的几种故障及处理方法．     

江西山地风电场风速数值模拟方法研究

利用中尺度气象数值模式WRF和动力降尺度模式CALMET,对江西山地风电场不同高度层风速进行4个月逐时数值模拟,结合测风塔实测资料,对两种模式的模拟结果进行准确性、误差特征等方面研究,结果表明:1) WRF模式和CALMET模式均能较好地模拟出风速的日变化特征,在大风速时间段两个模式模拟误差变大,可能是由于出现台风、降雨伴随大风等天气时,WRF模式边界层方案对大风速时拖曳作用不充分造成,今后可考虑通过天气过程模拟的敏感性研究及历史数据对模拟结果进行订正。2)从各月模拟结果来看,WRF模式与CALMET模式各月模拟值与实测值间相关系数均大于0. 65,两个模式对70 m高度层模拟结果均优于对10 m高度层的模拟结果,并且CALMET模式均方根误差低于WRF模式的。3) CALMET模式在各风速段模拟效果均优于WRF模式的。两个模式在0~3 m·s-1低风速的模拟效果最优,在大风速段( 8 m·s~(-1))模拟结果平均绝对误差最大,今后应对大风模拟结果的订正开展进一步研究。     

关于自动气象站雷电防护的探讨

该文详细介绍了自动气象站直击雷、感应雷防护措施和自动气象站共用接地等防雷技术措施,同时还增加了观测场的雷电防护措施。简要介绍了自动气象站的防雷,对做好自动气象站的防雷工作有一定的指导意义。     

Reconstruction of daily ultraviolet radiation for nine observation stations in China

The aim of this study was to reconstruct daily ultraviolet (UV) radiation (daily cumulation, similarly hereinafter) for nine observation stations in China, using a radiative transfer model combined with empirical relationships. Measurements of global total solar (G) radiation, UV radiation, and their ratio (UV/G) at the nine stations were analyzed for the period 2006–2011. The daily cloud and aerosol attenuation ratios were defined to quantitatively evaluate the effect of cloud and aerosols on radiation, based on measurements and simulated data under cloudless-sky conditions. A semi-empirical reconstruction method for UV radiation was established at each station using cloud modification factors, and by applying an equation that relates G and UV radiation measurements, as well as their corresponding simulations under cloudless conditions. Daily UV radiation values were reconstructed and compared with ground-based measurements for the nine stations, and the results revealed most of the slope values to be close to one, and the determination coefficients ranged from 89.5 to 95.7 %. The values of mean absolute bias error (MABE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) were below 15 and 18 % for all stations, respectively, and at most stations were even lower than 10 %. A comparison of monthly measured and reconstructed UV radiation for the nine stations was also performed, revealing the values of MABE and RMSE to be even smaller with values of less than 5 %. According to these results, we conclude that the method established in this study has good applicability and transferability.     

中国国家级气象台站小时降水数据集研制

通过收集、整理中国历史上各类逐小时降水数据源,建立了中国国家级地面气象台站逐小时降水数据集。质量评估结果显示,绝大部分台站实有率在90%以上,中国东部沿海和贵州、湖南等省份数据实有率偏低。各台站数据正确率普遍较高,正确率低于98%的台站数占总站数的0.7%,正确率在98%~99%区间的台站占总站数的1.8%,其余97.5%的站数据正确率都高于99%。逐小时降水量的日合计量和人工观测日降水量差值在1 mm以内的占92.1%,在0.5~5 mm间的占16.37%,超过5 mm的不到9‰。     

自动气象站编报数据缺测的应急处理方法

针对在测报日常工作中,当临近规定编发气象观测报告时次的时候,突遇自动气象站正点数据采集失败、计算机出故障而采集器正常、采集器出故障而计算机正常、采集器和计算机同时发生故障等情况时,经多方探索,得出了如何取得自动气象站的编报数据,以确保气象数据完整、测报业务正常运行。     

Wind effects on the upwelling variability in the coastal zone of Primorye (the northwest of the Sea of Japan)

The variability of upwelling events in the coastal zone of Primorye in the northwestern part of the Sea of Japan is studied using the SeaWinds/QuikSCAT scatterometer wind data for the period of 1999-2009. The intensity of upwelling is defined by the wind-induced offshore Ekman transport (the upwelling index). It was found that along the southern coast of Primorye upwelling events occur from September to March (April). The winter monsoon period is the most favorable for the upwelling development. In the eastern part of the coastal zone of Primorye upwelling is observed in transitional seasons between winter and summer monsoon (February-April and September-October). On the northeastern coast of Primorye, the upwelling season is from August to October (November). The common feature of the coastal zone of Primorye is a wind-driven upwelling in autumn (September-October). The interannual variability of winter upwelling along the southern coast of Primorye is related to the East Asia high pressure center (the Siberian High). The upwelling intensifies in the years with positive air pressure anomalies in the Siberian High and weakens in the years with negative anomalies.     

重现期风速风压计算系统介绍

介绍“重现期风速风压计算系统”采用4种概率分布模型（极值Ⅰ型分布、韦布尔分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和对数正态分布）,计算工程抗风设计所需的重现期风速、风压等参数,同时给出剩余方差、柯尔莫哥洛夫拟合适度检验指标、拟合相对偏差等拟合优度指标,便于不同概率分布模型计算结果的对比分析。     

Micaps2.0在县级台站的本地化设置

通过参数检索控制文件设置,调整作业时间和数据接口、底图文件介绍,制作出参数启动文件和定义综合图,并介绍了Micaps2.0的本地化设置方法及其预报产品的快速制作开发思路。     

Tabulated statistics for some ion dispersion experiments in turbulent air

In July 1977 dispersion experiments with air ions as tracer were carried out at Porton in southern England. Each trial lasted about 40 min. The source height was 5 m. Continuous ion production took place in eight trials for source-sensor distances between 10 and 100m. Ion production in 1 s pulses took place in another four trials for source-sensor distances between 10 and 50 m. Two sensors were positioned at a height of 5 m and one sensor at 4 m. The experimental set-up and the weather conditions are described. Tabulated results comprise concentration frequency distributions, as well as auto- and cross-correlations, both for 0.01 and 0.1 s resolution.     

风廓线与测风塔资料在地面风场预报中的应用研究

运用四维同化方法将风廓线雷达和测风塔资料应用到WRF模式中,通过对比资料同化前后模式对地面风场的预报效果可知,加入风廓线雷达和测风塔资料后模式对风速的预报效果有明显提高,对风向的预报也有一定程度的改善;资料同化结束后,模式预报在49h内对地面风场预报效果仍有明显改善,但随着模式预报时间的增加,在模式积分49h以后,同化资料前后模式对地面风场的预报效果无明显变化。另外,通过对资料同化前后模式对风速预报误差的分析可知,在对模式风场预报的改进中风廓线雷达资料的贡献大于测风塔资料的贡献。