Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change

A physically based conceptual framework is put forward that explains why an increase in heavy precipitation events should be a primary manifestation of the climate change that accompanies increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase downwelling infrared radiation, and this global heating at the surface not only acts to increase temperatures but also increases evaporation which enhances the atmospheric moisture content. Consequently all weather systems, ranging from individual clouds and thunderstorms to extratropical cyclones, which feed on the available moisture through storm-scale moisture convergence, are likely to produce correspondingly enhanced precipitation rates. Increases in heavy rainfall at the expense of more moderate rainfall are the consequence along with increased runoff and risk of flooding. However, because of constraints in the surface energy budget, there are also implications for the frequency and/or efficiency of precipitation. It follows that increased attention should be given to trends in atmospheric moisture content, and datasets on hourly precipitation rates and frequency need to be developed and analyzed as well as total accumulation.     

Impact of moisture flux convergence and soil moisture on precipitation: a case study for the southern United States with implications for the globe

Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day^?1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation.     

Short timescale air-sea coupling in the tropical deep convective regime

Summary The relationship between surface rainfall rate and sea-surface temperature (SST) over tropical cloudy areas is revisited, and associated air-sea interaction processes are investigated based on hourly grid simulation data over cloudy areas from a two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model. A cloud-weighted data analysis shows that surface evaporation flux decreases with increasing SST and is one order of magnitude smaller than the residual between moisture convergence and condensation, playing a negligible role in moisture budget. Moisture convergence determines the surface rainfall rate by determining vapor condensation and deposition rates. Ocean mixed-layer thermal budget shows that the atmospheric surface flux is a major process responsible for SST variation while thermal advection and thermal entrainment play a secondary role. The results indicate that atmospheric impacts on the ocean are important whereas oceanic impacts on the atmosphere are not, in the tropical air-sea system, on short timescales. Thus, the relationship between surface rainfall rate and SST over tropical cloudy areas is not physically important. Further estimates indicate that the surface evaporation flux and residual between moisture convergence and condensation could have the same order of magnitude in daily-mean moisture budget.     

Effects of Land Use on the Climate of the United States

Land use practices have replaced much of the natural needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf deciduous, and mixed forests of the Eastern United States with crops. To a lesser extent, the natural grasslands in the Central United States have also been replaced with crops. Simulations with a land surface process model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model show that the climate of the United States with modern vegetation is significantly different from that with natural vegetation. Three important climate signals caused by modern vegetation are: (1) 1 °C cooling over the Eastern United States and 1 °C warming over the Western United States in spring; (2) summer cooling of up to 2 °C over a wide region of the Central United States; and (3) moistening of the near-surface atmosphere by 0.5 to 1.5 g kg^-1over much of the United States in spring and summer. Although individual months show large, statistically significant differences in precipitation due to land-use practices, these differences average out over the course of the 3-month seasons. These changes in surface temperature and moisture extend well into the atmosphere, up to 500 mb, and affect the boundary layer and atmospheric circulation. The altered climate is due to reduced surface roughness, reduced leaf and stem area index, reduced stomatal resistance, and increased surface albedo with modern vegetation compared to natural vegetation. The climate change caused by land use practices is comparable to other well known anthropogenic climate forcings. For example, it would take 100 to 175 years at the current, observed rate of summer warming over the United States to offset the cooling from deforestation. The summer sulfate aerosol forcing completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the Eastern United States. Similarly, the climatic effect of North American deforestation, with extensive summer cooling, further offsets the greenhouse forcing.     

On the coupling between vegetation and the atmosphere

Recent studies suggest that vegetation can drive large-scale atmospheric circulations and substantially influence the hydrologic cycle. We present observational evidence to quantify the extent of coupling between vegetation and the overlying atmosphere. Within the context of vegetation–atmospheric interactions, we reanalyze existing climatological data from springtime leaf emergence, emissivity, dew point temperatures, and historical records of precipitation and forest coverage. We construct new rainfall transects based on a robust global climatology. Using isotopic analysis of precipitation, we find that rain in Amazonia comes primarily from large-scale weather systems coupling interior regions to the ocean and is not directly driven by local evaporation. We find that changes in vegetative cover and state influence the temperature and moisture content of the surface and atmospheric boundary layer but are not reflected in observable precipitation changes. This analysis reaffirms the view that changes in precipitation over continental reaches are a product of complex processes only partly influenced but not controlled by local water sources or vegetation.     

West African monsoon response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol forcing under two emission scenarios

The impact of increased greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols concentrations upon the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated for the late twenty-first century period using the Météo-France ARPEGE-IFS high-resolution atmospheric model. Perturbed (2070–2100) and current (1961–2000) climates are compared using the model in time-slice mode. The model is forced by global sea surface temperatures provided by two transient scenarios performed with low-resolution coupled models and by two GHG evolution scenarios, SRES-A2 and SRES-B2. Comparing to reanalysis and observed data sets, the model is able to reproduce a realistic seasonal cycle of WAM despite a clear underestimation of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) during the boreal summer. Mean temperature change indicates a global warming over the continent (stronger over North and South Africa). Simulated precipitation change at the end of the twenty-first century shows an increase in precipitation over Sudan-Sahel linked to a strong positive feedback with surface evaporation. Along Guinea Gulf coast, rainfall regimes are driven by large-scale moisture advection. Moreover, results show a mean precipitation decrease (increase) in the most (less) enhanced GHG atmosphere over this region. Modification of the seasonal hydrological cycle consists in a rain increase during the monsoon onset. There is a significant increase in rainfall variance over the Sahel, which extends over the Guinea coast region in the moderate emission scenario. Enhanced precipitation over Sahel is linked to large-scale circulation changes, namely a weakening of the AEJ and an intensification of the Tropical Easterly Jet.     

Diagnosis and numerical simulation of a torrential precipitation event in Catalonia (Spain)

Summary A torrential precipitation event occurred in Catalonia (northeastern part of Spain) during 9 and 10 October 1994. More than 400mm were registered in the south of Catalonia. A diagnostic study shows that most of the ingredients to produce heavy rain (large scale upward vertical motion, instability, high moisture content in all the troposphere) were present over the Spanish coast and western Mediterranean. Mesoscale triggering mechanisms have been associated with the orographic forcing, not only through physical lifting of moist air by the coastal mountains, but also by the redistribution of the surface pressure field induced by the Atlas and Pyrenees ranges. A numerical simulation of the event using a meso- model has been performed. The model forecasts qualitatively well the rainfall distribution but underestimates the maximum rainfalls. The effects of the orography and the evaporation from the sea have been also studied. The simulations have shown that the action of the orography is decisive for the rainfall, pressure and wind distrbutions over the Spanish coast and the western Mediterranean. The isolated action of the evaporation turns to be much less important. However the combined effect of orography and evaporation is the most important factor in the areas where the greatest amount of rainfall occurred.With 26 Figures     

局地蒸发和外部水汽输送对松花江流域夏季降水的贡献

本文基于Brubaker二元模型,采用JRA-55再分析资料定量研究了局地蒸发和外部水汽输送对松花江流域夏季气候态降水及其年际变率的相对贡献,并探讨了相应的物理机制。气候平均而言,外部水汽输送是松花江流域初夏（5～6月）和盛夏（7～8月）降水的最主要水汽源。受西风带影响,初夏自西边界进入松花江流域的水汽贡献占主导,外部水汽输送对当地降水的贡献为78.9%,源自蒸发的水汽贡献为21.1%。较之初夏,由于盛夏来自南边界的水汽输送加倍,外部水汽输送贡献增加,外部水汽输送和蒸发对降水贡献分别为86%和14%。JRA-55再分析资料可以合理再现观测降水演变,1961～2016年JRA-55再分析资料降水与观测在初夏与盛夏的相关系数分别可以达到0.73和0.83。研究发现,初夏,由于西南季风异常导致的南边界进入的水汽输送异常是松花江流域降水年际变率的主要原因,自西边界、北边界进入的水汽输送与降水呈现显著负相关,初夏局地蒸发的贡献不显著,该水汽输送异常对应的环流型易发生在El Ni?o衰减年初夏。盛夏来自南边界的水汽输送起主导作用,局地蒸发贡献与降水变化显著负相关,海温强迫作用对该环流异常的强迫并不显著,中高纬度大气内部变率影响占主导。由于盛夏降水与地表温度在盛夏期间显著负相关,盛夏时期降水偏少时,温度偏高,蒸发偏强,进而蒸发水汽对降水贡献增加。     

Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation of the summer precipitation variability over the Southeastern United States

Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation of the summer (June–July–August) precipitation over the Southeastern United State (SE U.S.) were examined during 1948–2007 using PRECipitation REConstruction over Land and multiple reanalysis datasets. The analysis shows that the interannual variation of SE U.S. summer precipitation can be largely explained by the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function mode showing a spatially homogenous sub-continental scale pattern. Consequently, areal-averaged precipitation was investigated to focus on the large-scale rainfall changes over the SE U.S. The wavelet analysis identifies an increased 2–4 year power spectrum in recent 30 years (1978–2007), suggesting an intensification of the interannual variability. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget indicates that the increase in precipitation variability is mainly caused by moisture transport, which exhibits a similar increase in the 2–4 year power spectrum for the same period. Moisture transport, in turn, is largely controlled by the seasonal mean component rather than the subseasonal-scale eddies. Furthermore, our results indicate that dynamic processes (atmospheric circulation) are more important than thermodynamic processes (specific humidity) in regulating the interannual variation of moisture transport. Specifically, the North Atlantic Subtropical High western ridge position is found to be a primary regulator, with the ridge in the northwest (southwest) corresponding to anomalous moisture divergence (convergence) over the SE U.S. Changes in moisture transport consistent with the increased frequency of these two ridge types in recent 30 years favor the intensification of summer precipitation variability.     

Scale decomposition of atmospheric water budget over West Africa during the monsoon 2006 from NCEP/GFS analyses

NCEP/GFS analysis is used to investigate the scale dependence and the interplay between the terms of the atmospheric water budget over West Africa using a dedicated decomposition methodology. The focus is on a 2-month period within the active monsoon period of 2006. Results show that the dominant scales of seasonal mean precipitation and moisture flux divergence over West Africa during the monsoon period are large scales (greater than 1,400 km) except over topography, where mean values of small scales (smaller than 900 km) are strong. Correlations between moisture flux divergences in monsoon and African Easterly Jet layers and precipitation indicate that precipitation is strongly correlated to moisture flux divergence via both large-scale and small-scale processes, but the correlation signal is quite different depending on the region and vertical layer considered. The analysis of the scales associated with the rainfall and the local evaporation over 3 different regions shows that positive correlation exists over the ocean between precipitation and evaporation especially at large scale. Over the continent south of the Sahel, the correlation is negative and driven by large scale. Over the northern part of Sahel, positive correlation is found, only at small scales during the active monsoon period. Lag correlation reveals that the maximum evaporation over the Sahel occurs 1–3 days after the maximum precipitation with maximum contribution from small-scale processes during the first day. This study shows that NCEP/GFS reproduces well the known atmospheric water budget features. It also reveals a new scale dependence of the relative role of each term of the atmospheric water budget. This indicates that such scale decomposition approach is helpful to clarify the functioning of the water cycle embedded in the monsoon system.     

Air-Sea Interaction over the Indian Ocean During the Two Contrasting Monsoon Years 1987 and 1988 Studied with Satellite Data

Summary The air-sea interaction processes over the tropical Indian Ocean region are studied using sea surface temperature data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor onboard the NOAA series of satellites. The columnar water-vapour content, low-level atmospheric humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and back radiation from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager on board the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program are all examined for two contrasting monsoon years, namely 1987 (deficit rainfall) and 1988 (excess rainfall). From these parameters the longwave radiative net flux at the sea surface and the ocean-air moisture flux are derived for further analysis of the air-sea interaction in the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the south China Sea and the southern Indian Ocean. An analysis of ten-day and monthly mean evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal shows that the evaporation was higher in these areas during the low rainfall year (1987) indicating little or no influence of this parameter on the ensuing monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent. On the other hand, the evaporation in the southern Indian Ocean was higher during July and September 1988 when compared with the same months of 1987. The evaporation rate over the south Indian Ocean and the low-level cross-equatorial moisture flux seem to play a major role on the ensuing monsoon activity over India while the evaporation over the Arabian Sea is less important. Since we have only analysed one deficit/ excess monsoon cycle the results presented here are of preliminary nature. Received November 5, 1997 Revised March 20, 1998     

Simulated changes in the atmospheric water balance over South Asia in the eight IPCC AR4 coupled climate models

This paper evaluates the performance of eight state-of-art IPCC-AR4 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in their representation of regional characteristics of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. The results presented here are the regional climate change scenarios of atmospheric water balance components, precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation (P, C and E) up to the end of the twenty-second century based on IPCC AR4 modelling experiments conducted for (A1B) future greenhouse gas emission scenario. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown a reasonable skill in depicting the hydrological cycle over the South Asian region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed atmospheric water balance and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and atmospheric water balance changes under A1B scenario are discussed in detail. Spatial patterns of rainfall change projections indicate maximum increase over northwest India in most of the models, but changes in the atmospheric water balance are generally widespread over South Asia. While the scenarios presented in this study are indicative of the expected range of rainfall and water balance changes, it must be noted that the quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them.     

Characteristics and spatio-temporal variability of the Amazon River Basin Water Budget

The spatio-temporal variations of the water budget components in the Amazon region are investigated by using a combination of hydrometeorological observations and moisture fluxes derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, for the period 1970–1999. The key new finding of this study identifies the major differences in the water balance characteristics and variability between the northern and southern parts of the basin. Our results show that there is a seasonality and interannual variability of the water balance that varies across the basin. At interannual time scales, anomalies in the water balance components in the northern Amazon region show relatively stronger links with tropical Pacific interannual variability. Over the entire region, precipitation exceeds evaporation and the basin acts as a sink of moisture (P>E). However, on some occasions the basin can act as a source for moisture (P<E) under extreme conditions, such as those related to deficient rainfall in northern Amazonia during the strong El Niño of 1983. Our estimates of the Amazon regions water balance do not show a closure of the budget, with an average imbalance of almost 50%, suggesting that some of the moisture that converges in the Amazon region is not accounted for. The imbalance is larger over the southern Amazon region than over the northern region, and it also exhibits interannual variability. Large uncertainties are detected in the evaporation and moisture-convergence fields derived from the reanalyses, and in the case of evaporation it can be as large as 10–20% when compared with the few field observations across the basin. Observed precipitation fields derived from station data and from grid-box products also show some discrepancies due to sampling problems and interpolation techniques. The streamflow observed at the mouth of the river is obtained after corrections on the series observed taken at a gauging site almost 200 km inland. However, variability in the evaporation, moisture convergence, and observed rainfall and runoff matches quite well.     

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and extreme daily precipitation over the US and Mexico during the hurricane season

The tail of the distribution of daily precipitation for August–September–October was examined over the United States and Mexico in relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As expected from previous studies linking the AMO to hurricane activity, Florida and the coastal Southeast US showed an increase in precipitation intensity when the Atlantic was in a warm phase (AMO+). Also during AMO+ Northwest Mexico was dry and exhibited a reduction of extreme events and the Mid-Atlantic Appalachian Mountains showed evidence of an increase in heavy precipitation compared to when the Atlantic was cool. It is proposed that the aforementioned decadal variations in extreme rainfall are forced by changes in the large-scale surface winds and air temperature in conjunction with the AMO. Namely, an anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed off the Southeast coast, leading to a reduction of moisture flux into the decaying North American monsoon, and an increase in moisture flux into the Mid-Atlantic. Further, the Mid-Atlantic shows a relatively strong increase in the mid-tropospheric lapse rate. Thus, the unique combination of low-level humidity, potential instability, and elevated topography are consistent with an enhanced risk of intense rainfall during AMO+.     

Role of the global oceans and land–atmosphere interaction on summertime interdecadal variability over northern Argentina

This study uses experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to address the role of the oceans and the effect of land–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of summertime rainfall over northern Argentina focusing on interdecadal time scales during 1901–2006. Ensembles of experiments where the AGCM is forced with historical sea surface temperature (SST) in the global, Pacific and tropical-North Atlantic domains are used. The role of land–atmosphere interaction is assessed comparing the output of simulations with active and climatological soil moisture. A maximum covariance analysis between precipitation and SST reveals the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the equatorial–tropical South Atlantic on rainfall over northern Argentina. Model simulations further show that while the dominant influence comes from the Pacific basin, the Atlantic influence can explain a large transition from dry to wet decades over northern Argentina during the beginning of the 1970s. Analysis of anomalies before and after the transition reveals an upper level anticyclonic circulation off the Patagonian coast with barotropic structure. This circulation enhances the moisture transport and convergence in northern Argentina and, together with enhanced evaporation, increased the rainfall after 1970. The SST pattern is dominated by cold conditions in the equatorial Atlantic and warm eastern Pacific and South Atlantic. We also found that land–atmosphere interaction leads to a representation of the long term rainfall evolution over northern Argentina that is closer to the observed one. Moreover, it leads to a smaller dispersion among ensemble members, thus resulting in a larger signal-to-noise ratio.     

The impact of climate change on the Niger River Basin hydroclimatology, West Africa

Climate change has the potential to reduce water availability in West Africa. This study aims to quantify the expected impact of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) on hydroclimatology of Niger River Basin (NRB). Boundary data from a general circulation model are used to force a regional climate model, to produce dynamically downscaled hydroclimatic variables of NRB under present-day (PRS) and future climate scenarios. The data were further analyzed to detect changes in atmospheric and surface water balance components and moisture recycling ratio (β). The results show that elevated GHGs (under A1B scenario) would produce a drier climate during the rainy season and a wetter climate during the dry season. A warmer climate over NRB in all months was projected. Highest temperature increase of 3 °C occurs about 14°N in May and June, and the smallest increase of 0.5 °C occurs below 8°N in wet-dry transition period. Evaporation reduces during wet season and increases during the dry periods. Humidity increases by 2 % in the dry season, but decreases by 2–4 % in the wet season. Maximum change in moisture influx of 20.7 % and outflux of 20.6 % occur in June and July, respectively. β is projected to decrease in 75 % of the months with biggest relative change of ?18.4 % in June. The projected decrease in precipitation efficiency (ρ) during the wet season reaches ?20.3 % in June. For PRS run, about 66 % of the available atmospheric moisture in NRB precipitates between June and September, of which around 21 % originates from local evaporation. The result suggests that under enhanced GHGs, local evaporation will contribute less to atmospheric moisture and precipitation over the basin. Projected changes in rainfall and streamflow for Upper Niger and Benue sub-basin are significantly different during the wet season.     

The potential of vegetation feedback to alleviate climate aridity over the United States associated with a 2×CO2 climate condition

This study examines the potential impact of vegetation feedback on changes in summer climate aridity over the contiguous United States (US) due to the doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration using a set of 100-year-long climate simulations made by a global climate model interactively coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. The Thornthwaite moisture index (I _m ), which quantifies climate aridity on the basis of atmospheric water supply (i.e., precipitation) and atmospheric water demand (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, PET), is used to measure climate aridity. Warmer atmosphere and drier surface resulting from increased CO₂ concentration increase climate aridity over most of the contiguous US. This phenomenon is due to larger increments in PET than in precipitation, regardless of the presence or absence of vegetation feedback. Compared to simulations without active dynamic vegetation feedback, the presence of vegetation feedback significantly alleviates the increase in aridity. This vegetation-feedback effect is most noticeable in the subhumid regions such as southern, midwestern and northwestern US, primarily by the increasing vegetation greenness. In these regions, the greening in response to warmer temperatures enhances moisture transfer from soil to atmosphere by evapotranspiration (ET). The increased ET and subsequent moistening over land areas result in weaker surface warming (1–2?K) and PET (3–10?mm?month^?1), and greater precipitation (4–10?mm?month^?1). Collectively, they result in moderate increases in I _m . Our results suggest that moistening by enhanced vegetation feedback may prevent aridification under climatic warming especially in areas vulnerable to climate change, with consequent implications for mitigation strategies.     

不同太平洋年代际振荡和ENSO位相下大气水分收支变化对北半球冬季太平洋蒸发量的影响

本文利用OAFlux资料研究了1958~2015年北半球冬季太平洋蒸发量在不同厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（ENSO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）位相下的分布特征,并从水汽收支的角度分析了蒸发量异常的成因,结果表明:ENSO主要影响热带东太平洋、副热带西北太平洋和中纬度北太平洋中部的蒸发量。El Ni?o（La Ni?a）时水汽在北太平洋中部异常辐散（辐合）,有利于当地大气水汽含量减小（增大）,造成蒸发量增大（减小）;副热带西北太平洋异常的水汽辐合（辐散）有利于蒸发量减小（增大）;除此以外,蒸发量在热带东太平洋蒸发量增大（减小）则主要是降水量增大（减小）导致。与此同时,ENSO对上述海区蒸发量的影响还受到PDO的调控,当PDO处于暖（冷）位相时,El Ni?o（La Ni?a）造成蒸发量异常程度在中纬度北太平洋中部显著增大,这主要是由降水量增大（减小）引起的大气水汽含量减小（增大）所致,此时对应着风暴轴异常增大（减小）;当PDO处于冷（暖）位相时,El Ni?o（La Ni?a）造成的蒸发量异常程度在副热带西北太平洋和热带东太平洋显著增大,而这与湿度变化引起的水汽平流异常程度增大紧密相关。     

Atmospheric contribution to hydrologic variations in the Arctic

Abstract

High‐latitude rawinsonde data for 18 years (1973–1990) are used to compute the atmospheric moisture flux convergence over two regions: the Arctic Ocean and the Mackenzie River drainage basin. The primary objectives are to assess the interannual variability and to compare the macroscale hydrologie regimes of the two regions. The moisture flux convergence is positive in all months over the Arctic Ocean, but is occasionally negative during summer over the Mackenzie Basin. The climatological seasonal cycle of the moisture convergence contains a late‐summer (August‐September) maximum over the Arctic Ocean but a late‐summer minimum over the Mackenzie Basin. Evaporation, deduced from the moisture inflow and independent data on precipitation, makes a much greater contribution to the atmospheric moisture budget of the Mackenzie domain, especially during summer. The respective equivalent area averages of the 18‐year annual mean moisture flux convergence, precipitation and derived evaporation are 17.3, 19.5 and 2.2 cm a^‐1 for the Arctic Ocean and 24.9, 33.6 and 8.7 cm a^‐1 for the Mackenzie domain. However, the range of interannual variations of the flux convergence is about ±50% of the annual means and more than twice the monthly means. The annual totals of the flux convergence are correlated with station‐derived precipitation over the Mackenzie domain and with yearly variations of the Mackenzie discharge. The moisture flux convergence over the Mackenzie domain suggests that station reports underestimate precipitation during the winter months by amounts equivalent to several centimetres per annum.     

Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model

A nine-member ensemble of simulations with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model forced only by the observed record of sea surface temperature (SST) over 1930–2000 is shown to capture the dominant patterns of variability of boreal summer African rainfall. One pattern represents variability along the Gulf of Guinea, between the equator and 10°N. It connects rainfall over Africa to the Atlantic marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, is controlled by local, i.e., eastern equatorial Atlantic, SSTs, and is interannual in time scale. The other represents variability in the semi-arid Sahel, between 10°N and 20°N. It is a continental pattern, capturing the essence of the African summer monsoon, while at the same time displaying high sensitivity to SSTs in the global tropics. A land–atmosphere feedback associated with this pattern translates precipitation anomalies into coherent surface temperature and evaporation anomalies, as highlighted by a simulation where soil moisture is held fixed to climatology. As a consequence of such feedback, it is shown that the recent positive trend in surface temperature is consistent with the ocean-forced negative trend in precipitation, without the need to invoke the direct effect of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. We advance plausible mechanisms by which the balance between land–ocean temperature contrast and moisture availability that defines the monsoon could have been altered in recent decades, resulting in persistent drought. This discussion also serves to illustrate ways in which the monsoon may be perturbed, or may already have been perturbed, by anthropogenic climate change.