Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale

Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given.     

达索普冰川海拔7100m处粒雪中空气的封闭

The air-bubble formation has been studied experimentally in the Dasuopu ice core from the northern slope of Mount Xixabangma. It was found that air-channel volume decreases gradually, but the firn remains permeable down to the depth above the transition of firn to ice, i. e., about the depth of the air-channels closing off to be isolated bubbles. Apparently, there exists an age difference between air trapped in bubbles and surrounding ice. Only when the air channels close off completely, the age of the air increases in the same rate as the surrounding ice. Air-bubbles formed in different depths at different sites depending on accumulation rate and mean annual temperature, but approximately at a mean density of 0.79～0.83 Mg·m -3 . The air-channels in the Dasuopu firn core closed rapidly in the depth between 40 and 47 m, and 50% of air-bubbles were formed in the depth of 45 m. It is calculated that the age difference between air and its surrounding ice is 59 a, and the bulk age distribution width of air trapped in ice bubbles is 11 a.     

Nature of breccia rocks at the top of a salt body in the Verkhnekamskoe salt deposit at the Ural foredeep

The formation of sulfate-carbonate-clayey breccia rocks at the top of a salt body on the flank of the Durinsk trough of the Verkhnekamskoe salt deposit is related to tectonic displacement of the suprasalt sequence along a synsedimentary dip-slip of the Durinsk fault during the Early Permian Sheshmin Stage. The presence of relict minerals suggests that the rocks were formed from the insoluble residue of both salt and suprasalt sequences. Zonations revealed in the distribution of newly formed minerals and the breccia composition variation, which is manifested as the removal of calcite sulfate and manganese carbonate, match the weathering profile composition. However, the development of a system of diagonal sliding planes and selective leaching along them indicate that supergene alterations took place during tectonic dislocations.     

Electromagnetometry at the sea floor

Electromagnetometry at the sea floor has been developed over the last two decades taking advantage of the progress of positioning and acoustic technology in marine region. In spite of its risks and costs, electromagnetometry at the sea floor has significantly contributed to the study of conductivity anomalies through direct observations of electromagnetic variations at the sea floor. Some of the fruitful results of the ocean bottom observations around Japan as well as data processing of sea floor electromagnetic measurements are reviewed. Future problems in electromagnetometry at the sea floor are also discussed. In conclusion, the importance of establishing semipermanent electromagnetic observatories at the sea floor is emphasized.     

Comparative study of scintillations at the magnetic equator and at the crest region of the equatorial anomaly in Indian zone

Using simultaneous long-term observations of ionospheric scintillation at equator and anomaly crest region in the same longitude (Indian) zone comparative features of scintillation occurrence are brought out. The salient features are: (a) predominantly pre-midnight occurrence of scintillation at equator during winter and equinox seasons, (b) increase of pre-midnight scintillation occurrence with solar activity (c) shifting of occurrence peak during summer from post-midnight in low to pre-midnight in high solar activity periods (d) similarity of scintillation behaviour at these locations during winter and equinoxes but dissimilarity during summer. The solar activity response and magnetic effects indicate that the scintillations at the anomaly crest region in winter and equinox, particularly during high solar activity periods, are of equatorial origin while the summer events may be of local or mid-latitude origin.     

Identification of the projectile at the Brent crater,and further considerations of projectile types at terrestrial craters

Impact melt samples from drill hole B1-59 at the 3.8 km diameter Brent crater (Ontario) have been analysed for siderophile trace elements indicative of meteoritic contamination. Samples from the basal melt zone at 823–857 m depth are enriched in Ir, Os, Pd, Ni, Co, Cr and Se over basement, with the abundance pattern suggesting a chondritic projectile for Brent. From a Ni-Cr correlation of 10 melt samples an L or LL chondrite is inferred. The contribution of an ultramafic country rock (alnoite) in the melt is too small to significantly influence its $\text{Ni}\text{Cr}$ ratio. Glass-rich breccias from the allochthonous breccias filling the crater also contain a meteoritic component. Interelement ratios (e.g. $\text{Ni}\text{Cr}$) are, however, fractionated relative to the melt zone samples. This, as well as the low Au content of all Brent samples, is probably a product of alteration.Additional data on impact melts from the 65 km diameter crater Manicouagan still did not reveal a meteoritic component, as also for the Mistastin crater (28 km diameter) where Cr analyses set an upper limit of 1% of an achondritic projectile component in the melt. Irghizites (tektite like glasses) from the Zhamanshin impact structure have been found to contain high Ni and Co concentrations, and our data show that Ir is also enriched. It is however not possible to define the projectile-type. Enrichment of an Ivory Coast tektite in Ir is confirmed. There are large differences in siderophile element concentrations among tektites, with otherwise similar chemical composition.There are now four known craters formed by chondrites (Clearwater East, Lapparjärvi, Wanapitei, and Brent), with Brent being the smallest of these. For smaller craters the projectiles appear to be limited to iron or stony-iron meteorites, because of atmospheric destruction of relatively small stony meteorites. It appears, however, that all major classes of meteorites are represented among the projectiles at terrestrial impact craters.     

Place-making at the frontier of Brazilian agribusiness

The intricacies of one of the most relevant agribusiness frontiers in the world today—the north of the State of Mato Grosso, in the southern section of the Amazon, Brazil—are considered through a critical examination of place-making. Vast areas of Amazon rainforest and savannah vegetation were converted there, since the 1970s, into places of intensive soybean farming, basically to fulfil exogenous demands for land and agriculture production. The present assessment goes beyond the configuration of new places at the agricultural frontier, and starts with a qualitative intellectual jump: from place-making on the frontier to place-making as an ontological frontier in itself. It means that, instead of merely studying the frontier as a constellation of interconnected places, we examine the politicised genesis of the emerging places and their trajectory under fierce socio-ecological disputes. The consideration of almost five decades of intense historic-geographical change reveals an intriguing dialectics of displacement (of previous socio-ecological systems, particularly affecting squatters and indigenous groups, in order to create opportunities for migrants and companies), replacement (of the majority of disadvantaged farmers and poor migrants, leading to land concentration, widespread financialisation and the decisive influence of transnational corporations) and misplacement (which is the synthesis of displacement and replacement, demonstrated by mounting risks and a pervasive sentiment of maelstrom). Overall, there was nothing inevitable in the process of rural and regional development, but the problems, conflicts and injustices that characterise its turbulent geographical trajectory were all more or less visible from the outset.     

在全国工程咨询设计行业发展高峰论坛闭幕式上的讲话

各位代表:全国工程咨询设计行业发展高峰论坛,在与会各方的通力合作和密切配合下,围绕着"咨询发展,设计未来"的主题,完成了两天的议程,通过了《北京宣言》,达到了预期效果,论坛与时     

Paleoecological studies at Lake Patzcuaro on the west-central Mexican Plateau and at Chalco in the basin of Mexico

A 1520-cm sediment core from Lake Patzcuaro, Michoacan, Mexico, is 44,000 yr old at the base. All parts of the core have abundant pollen of Pinus (pine), Alnus (alder), and Quercus (oak) with frequent Abies (fir). The interval dated from 44,000 to 11,000 yr ago has a homogeneous flora characterized by abundant Juniperus (juniper) pollen and frequent Artemisia (sagebrush). It is believed to represent an appreciably drier and colder climate than at present. The Holocene at Lake Patzcuaro is characterized by a moderate increase in Pinus pollen and the loss of Juniperus pollen, as the modern type of climate succeeded. Alnus was abundant until about 5000 yr ago; its abrupt decrease with the first appearance of herbaceous weed pollen may reflect the cutting of lake-shore and stream-course alder communities for agricultural purposes, or it may simply reflect a drying tendency in the climate. Pollen of Zea (corn) appears at Lake Patzcuaro along with low peaks of chenopod and grass pollen at 3500 yr B.P. apparently recording a human population large enough to modify the natural environment, as well as the beginning of agriculture. A rich aquatic flora in this phase suggests eutrophication of the lake by slope erosion. In the most recent period corn is absent from the sediments, perhaps reflecting a change in agricultural practices. The environment changes at Lake Patzcuaro are similar to and correlate with those in the Cuenca de Mexico, where diatom stratigraphy from the Chalco basin indicates fluctuations in lake levels and lake chemistry in response to variations in available moisture. Before 10,000 yr ago climates there were cool and dry, and the Chalco basin was occupied by a shallow freshwater marsh that drained north to Lake Texcoco, where saline water accumulated by evaporation. Increases in effective moisture and possible melting of glaciers during the Holocene caused lake levels to rise throughout the Cuenca de Mexico, and Lake Texcoco flooded the Chalco basin with brackish water. After 5000 yr ago such flooding decreased, and shallow freshwater ponds and marshes were restored in the Chalco basin. This environmental change coincides with the appearance of Zea pollen and suggests cultural control of lake levels and salinity.     

Soil composition at the aquifer level,groundwater quality and the presence of Dehalococcoides ethenogenes at Dover AFB

Chlorinated solvents are among the most common groundwater pollutants globally. A common method to remediate this groundwater pollutant is through bioremediation. One of the most important bacteria that remediation workers use in this remediation is Dehalococcoides ethenogenes, which are the only dehalogenating bacteria with the capacity to break down these contaminants to the non-chlorinated compound, ethylene. While much is known about these bacteria in the laboratory, little is known about their natural habitat. In this experiment, eight sites on Dover Air Force Base were selected based on the larger CERCLA Closeout project; 2.54 cm wells were installed and groundwater samples were collected. These sites monitored groundwater quality parameters: temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and oxidative reduction potential. Additionally, samples were also analyzed for the contaminants: tetrachlorethylene, trichloroethylene, and vinyl chloride. The presence of vinyl chloride is an indicator of Dehalococcoides ethenogenes. Soil samples from the aquifer level were taken from each site as well and soil particle texture was assessed using the Bouyoucos hydrometer method. The objective of this experiment was to determine if there was a relationship between clay particles at the aquifer level, groundwater quality, and the presence of Dehalococcoides ethenogenes.     

Terrane processes at the margins of Gondwana

Geologists （especially in North America） now use ＂terrane＂ for a tectonic block while use ＂terrain＂ for a topographic area. This is different from the world of literature where ＂terrain＂ is a British English word and ＂terrane＂ is an American English word and both mean the same thing--an area of ground with a particular geographic or geologic character. Terranes, as defined by the late Peter Coney and his colleagues in a seminal paper in 1980 （Coney et al., Nature, vol. 288, pp. 329-333）, are fault-bounded areas, each area having its own internal homogeneity and continuity of stratigraphy, tectonic style and history. The concept of terranes was first developed by W.P. Irwin in 1972 in view of the complex mosaic geology of California; the concept was then extended to the entire Cordilleran- Alaskan belt by other geologists, especially P. Coney.     

黄河下游花园口河段洪水涨落过程中河床横断面形态的调整

利用黄河下游1950-1985年间218场洪水资料,讨论了黄河下游花园口河段洪水起涨和回落过程中河床形态调整的不同过程.在洪水起涨阶段,花园口河段河床宽深比以增大为主,且洪水最大含沙量越大,宽深比增大的幅度越大,洪峰增幅比在3以下时,宽深比随最大含沙量的增大而增大,洪峰增幅比在3以上时,呈随含沙量的增大而减小的趋势.在洪水回落阶段,宽深比的变化方向则相反.在含沙量较小时,河床宽深比的减小主要发生在洪水起涨阶段,在含沙量很大时,河床宽深比的减小主要发生在洪水回落阶段.     

Biogass emission prognosis at the landfills

The present study aims to estimate biogas potential of two Russian landfills situated in the republic of Tatarstan and in Moscow Region. Due to environmental, economic, social and energetic consideration of biogas for human being, utilization of such a by-product would be of high concern. To date, there are seven biogas utilization projects which have been developed and implemented at municipal solid waste landfills of Russia. The purpose of the research was to determine the biogas potential at the closed landfills. During the studies held in 2008; sampling, transportation, storage of biogas and landfill soil samples, laboratory investigations; physicochemical and analytical methods for measuring of proteins, carbohydrates and fats in the organic part of the soil and the analysis of empirical data by the methods of computer modeling and mathematical statistics were carried out. The obtained results of the research; concentrations of biogas components: methane, carbon dioxide, carbon oxide, nitrogen, hydrogen and oxygen, gas flows, composition of the organic part of the fields and analysis of gas distribution on the surface of the landfills; has shown scientific and practical importance. Results could be used for the assessment of biogas potential at the landfills for further biogas utilization projects implementation with electrical or thermal energy production.     

Environmental geochemistry at the global scale

Land degradation and pollution caused by population pressure and economic development pose a threat to the sustainability of the earth's surface, especially in tropical regions where a long history of chemical weathering has made the surface environment particularly fragile. Systematic baseline geochemical data provide a means of monitoring the state of the environment and identifying problem areas. Regional surveys have already been carried out in some countries, and with increased national and international funding they can be extended to cover the rest of the land surface of the globe. Preparations have been made, under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Surveys (IUGS) and the International Association of Geochemistry and Cosmochemistry (IAGC) for the establishment of just such an integrated global database.     

Neotectonics at the Arabian plate margins

Opening of the Red Sea is accompanied by convergence between the Arabian plate and Eurasia. Regional topography and structure favour gravity glide as the main driving force of plate translation. At the leading edge of the plate, the Zagros Mountains undergo coseismic serial folding which is equivalent to Holocene shortening by ∼20 mm/year and which has led to major episodes of coastal uplift of which the last was ∼1700 years BP. At the Jordan Rift transform, which bounds the Arabian plate on the west, a recurrence interval of ∼1600 years is reported for events of M_L≥5.5. The palaeomagnetic record for the last 3.2 Ma indicates an average spreading rate for the Red Sea of ∼20 mm/year; there is some evidence that hydrothermal activity in the Red Sea is pulsatory, with a period of ∼2000 year, and that it reflects discontinuous spreading. The Holocene neotectonic records of the Zagros, the Jordan Rift and the Red Sea are the product of complex plate interactions and of the accumulation and release of strain in the crust along the plate margins. But they also reflect elastic strain energy storage and release within the Arabian plate, whence parallels in the period of major deformation episodes in the three deforming zones and the apparent discrepancy between the seismic moment predicted by plate kinematics and that recorded in the Zagros. Any associated intraplate deformation, if detected geodetically, would thus help the assessment of seismic hazard.     

Marine geology at the World Court

Huge areas of the world's seafloor are being carved up among the nations, ignoring scientific knowledge of the geology, geophysics and geomorphology of the seabed.