Basic Design Criteria for Bridges Crossing Open Sea and Bay Area

Bridge design is a combination of art, science, and technology. Design of bridges crossing open sea and bay areas is always of a great challenge to engineers. Basic design criteria dealing with ownership and financing, location, expected service life, traffic models and capacity, environmental evaluation, risk policy, and extreme events shall be established as early as possible. In this article, the guidelines for conceptual design are first presented. Structural design criteria for extreme events such as seismic, wind, and vessel collision are then discussed.     

Disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine cities:New Orleans and Shanghai The lesson from Hurricane Katrina

1Introduction IntheendofAugust2005,HurricaneKatrina assaultedAtlanticcoastandcoastofGulfofMexico coastswithamaximumwindspeedof175m/h,a bout1200peoplewerekilledinthecatastrophic storm,NewOrleanswasseriouslydamagedbythe turbulenthurricanewindandtheassociate…     

Disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine cities: New Orleans and Shanghai The lesson from Hurricane Katrina

The accurate prediction of the typhoon （hurricane） induced extreme sea environments is very important for the coastal structure design in areas influenced by typhoon （hurricane）. In 2005 Hurricane Katrina brought a severe catastrophe in New Orleans by combined effects of hurricane induced extreme sea environments and upper flood of the Mississippi River. Like the New Orleans City, Shanghai is located at the estuarine area of the Changjiang River and the combined effect of typhoon induced extreme sea en- vironments, flood peak runoff from the Changjiang River coupled with the spring tide is the dominate factor for disaster prevention design criteria. The Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution （PNLTCEYD） is a new type of joint probability model which is proposed by compounding a discrete distribution （typhoon occurring frequency） into a continuous multivariate joint distribution （ typhoon induced extreme events）. The new model gives more reasonable predicted results for New Orleans and Shanghai disaster prevention design criteria.     

Statistical estimation of extreme ocean environments: The requirement for modelling directionality and other covariate effects

With increasing availability of good directional data, provision of directional estimates of extreme significant wave heights, in addition to the omni-directional estimates, is more common. However, interpretation of directional together with omni-directional design criteria is subject to inconsistency, even in design guidelines. In particular, omni-directional criteria are usually estimated ignoring directional effects. In this article, for data which exhibit directional effects, we show that a directional extreme value model generally explains the observed variation significantly better than a model which ignores directionality, and that omni-directional criteria developed from a directional model are different from those generated when directionality is not accounted for. We also show that omni-directional criteria derived from a directional model are more accurate and should be preferred in general over those based on models which ignore directional effects. We recommend use of directional extreme value models for estimation of both directional and omni-directional design criteria in future, when good directional data are available. If effects of other covariates (e.g. time or space) are suspected, we similarly recommend use of extreme value models which adequately capture sources of covariate variability for all design analysis.     

Estimation of Design Wave Height for the Waters around the Korean Peninsula

Long term wave climate of both extreme wave and operational wave height is essential for planning and designing coastal structures. Since the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is not enough to provide reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information has been generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Basic data base of hindcasted wave parameters such as significant wave height, peak period and direction has been established continuously for the period of 25 years starting from 1979 and for major 106 typhoons for the past 53 years since 1951 for each grid point of the North East Asia Regional Seas with grid size of 18 km. Wind field reanalyzed by European Center for Midrange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used for the simulation of waves for the extratropical storms, while wind field calculated by typhoon wind model with typhoon parameters carefully analyzed using most of the available data was used for the simulation of typhoon waves. Design wave heights for the return period of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 directions at each grid point have been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the wave simulation data. As in conventional methodsi of design criteria estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis using the long-term hindcasting data are used in the statistical prediction for the future. The method of extreme statistical analysis in handling the extreme events like typhoon Maemi in 2003 was evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods of 30–50 years for the cost effective construction of coastal structures.     

The effect of directionality on extreme wave design criteria

Sea state design criteria for offshore facilities are frequently provided by direction. For example, it is typical for return-period values of the significant wave height to be specified for each of eight 45° sectors in addition to the omni-directional case. However, it is important that these criteria be consistent so that the probability of exceedance of a given wave height from any direction derived from the directional values is the same as for the omni-directional value. As recently demonstrated by Forristall it is not sufficient simply to scale the directional values so that the value of the wave height from the most severe sector is the same as the omni-directional value.We develop an approach for establishing appropriate directional criteria and an associated omni-directional criterion for a specific location. The inherent directionality of sea states is used to develop a model for the directional dependence of distributions of storm maxima. The directional model is applied to the GOMOS data, and the distributional properties of the 100-year significant wave height are estimated and the implications for design discussed. An objective risk-cost approach is proposed for optimising directional criteria, while preserving overall reliability. Simulation studies are performed, using realistic extreme value assumptions, to quantify the uncertainties.     

Reliability-Based Optimal Design for Very Large Floating Structure

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中国南海极端风暴海况下固定式平台结构可靠性分析

基于中国南海海域风暴环境条件,研究分析南海海域固定式导管架平台结构整体性和可靠性,以及新建固定式平台结构设计准则。采用海洋环境数据后报方法,得到南海海域1972~2011共40年的风、浪、流联合数据,从中抽取风暴环境条件;利用通用荷载模型,将40年间的风暴环境数据转变成结构的荷载数据,即基底剪力或倾覆力矩;并计算得到风暴环境荷载的短期及长期分布,以及任意风暴下荷载的概率分布;根据结构可靠性模型,结合荷载的长期分布,研究基于结构暴露等级及失效概率的固定式平台结构强度储备比。根据计算,得到了不同暴露等级下中国南海平台的强度储备比,并与墨西哥湾及北海海域进行了比较,为新建平台提供设计参考。     

山西近40年极端降水特征分析

利用山西108个国家级地面气象观测站1979—2018年日降水量资料,采用百分位法定义极端降水事件,应用气候趋势系数、Mann-Kendall (M-K)检验等方法,研究山西极端降水特征及其变化规律。结果表明:(1)山西极端降水出现在3—10月之间,发生频次呈现“山区多、盆地少”的特点,平均强度表现为“北中部小、南部大”的空间分布特征。(2)山西极端降水持续时间以1 d为主,局地性特征明显,发生大范围极端降水事件的概率较低。(3)近40年,山西极端降水事件呈明显增多趋势,影响范围不断扩大,强度略有增强,没有突变发生。各区域极端降水的长期变化差异较大;北部强度显著增强,范围明显扩大且在1986年发生突变;中部极端降水日数和强度显著增多增强,并分别在2001、1992年发生突变;南部极端降水变化趋势微弱。     

Use of the half-cycle analysis method to compare measured wave height and simulated Gaussian data having the same variance spectrum

Using the half-cycle analysis method, a comparison is made between extreme events in half-hour intervals of hurricane Camille wave data and extreme events in synthesized Gaussian realizations having the same variance spectra as the measured data. While various statistical comparisons of measured and simulated Gaussian data reveal a consistent trend toward Gaussian behavior for the majority of wave events in the hurricane generated data, it is shown using the half-cycle analysis method that the more extreme wave events occurring near the height of the storm were distinctly non-Gaussian.     

Estimation of extreme slamming pressures using the non-uniform Fourier phase distributions of a design loads generator

Slamming pressures are predicted using a nonlinear ship motion program whose input is an ensemble of short wave trains tailored to produce a large, linear pitch response. These short wave trains are calculated via a design methodology that first creates short time series containing a specified, large ship response and then back-calculates the incident wave trains using linear systems theory. The background simulations and theory used to create these short time series are presented here. Monte Carlo simulation of moderately rare events of a random process indicate the random Fourier component phase PDFs are non-uniform, non-identically distributed, and dependent on the rarity of the target event. These PDFs are modeled using a single parameter, Modified Gaussian distribution and used to generate design time series with a given expected value at a specific time. To predict rare events without resorting to Monte Carlo simulation, the parameters of the Modified Gaussian distributions are calculated via characteristic function comparison. The characteristic functions compare a target PDF calculated from extreme value theory to a PDF based on a discrete Fourier representation of the stochastic process with non-uniform component phases. The comparison to extreme value theory helps to quantify the risk associated with rare events.     

Characterizing the seasonal and directional varying properties in a marine environment

With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold (POT) method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated.     

Characterizing the Seasonal and Directional Varying Properties in A Marine Environment

With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold (POT) method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated.     

A review of methods to establish the wave climate for breakwater design

A review is given of methods for the synthesis of climate statistics for breakwater design, particularly with respect to the waves. Sources considered are wind data and wave data, both visual and instrumental. The need to extract information from all potential sources is stressed. Some methods to be used for this purpose are mentioned, and an indication is given of results which have been obtained. Uncertainties inherent in estimation of climate parameters are discussed, particularly for extreme events.     

极端事件再现时间长程相关性与群发性研究

利用百分位阈值方法定义极端事件,从极端事件再现时间的角度,研究了极端事件发生时间间隔的长程相关性.发现若原时间序列具有长程相关性,则它的极端事件再现时间序列也具有长程相关性;计算表明两者的标度指数α相当接近,这一特性与随机产生的再现时间序列有着本质的差别,再现时间序列的长程相关性是由原序列的长程相关性决定的.具有长程相关性的时间序列再现时间的概率分布明显不同于随机序列,其小值再现时间的概率较大,反映出极端事件的群发现象.本文根据这一特征定义了再现时间的群发性指数,发现时间序列的长程相关性是导     

海洋工程设计风速与波高的联合分布

选取我国渤海某处21a的风暴过程后报资料,考虑风暴发生频次的影响,提出泊松二维逻辑分布,并且将其用于海洋石油工程设计中极值风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了计算海域的风浪设计参数,并与传统的设计标准进行了比较.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于受风暴影响海区的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

Layer thicknesses and velocities of wave overtopping flow at seadikes

Seadikes often fail due to wave overtopping and a failure of the landward slope. Therefore, these aspects have to be taken into account for the design of seadikes. In present design, the calculation of the crest height of seadikes is essentially based on using a design water level and the corresponding wave run-up height. An average overtopping rate is generally considered for wave overtopping which can not account for the stresses and other effects due to extreme individual overtopping events. Landward slope design is more or less based on experience. It can be concluded from failure analysis that dike failures on the landward slope are rather initiated by individual overtopping events, in particular by the related overtopping flow velocities and layer thicknesses which are relevant for the prediction of erosion, infiltration and slip failure. Therefore, overtopping flow velocities and layer thicknesses are required in addition to average overtopping rates as hydraulic boundary conditions for the geotechnical stability analysis of seadikes.The objective of the present paper is the theoretical and experimental determination of overtopping flow velocities and layer thicknesses on the seaward slope, the dike crest and the landward slope of a seadike. Overtopping parameters are derived on the basis of small scale model tests which are required for the design of the landward slope and to avoid dike failures by wave overtopping in the future. For the prediction of the layer thicknesses and the velocities of the overtopping flow on the seaward slope, the dike crest and the landward slope, a set of theoretical formulas is derived and validated by hydraulic scale model tests.     

基于次季节—季节(S2S)模式的中国东部夏季日降水预报评估

为理解次季节—季节(subseasonal to seasonal,S2S)模式的预报技巧,利用台站降水观测资料对中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)模式公共回报期1999—2010 年108°E 以东的中国大陆东部夏季日降水及极端降水预报展开评估。结果表明,ECMWF 预报整体表现最佳、NCEP 次之、CMA 相对较弱,各模式随预报时间的增长均呈现当观测偏湿(干)时预报倾向偏干(湿)的特点,在 S2S 时间尺度基本丧失预报技巧,具有很大的改进空间。极端降水临界阈值的界定方法会直接影响单个台站的评估结果,但对区域整体预报技巧影响不大。S2S 模式预报的均方根误差在观测降水量越多时往往越大;预报值与观测值的相关系数在所有(极端)降水事件中呈连续(振荡)衰减,甚至出现负相关;均方技巧评分在所研究降水事件较多的情况下表现更好。各模式在所有降水事件中的空报率要远高于漏报率,但在极端降水事件中恰好相反。降水预报检验指标在绝对极端降水分级检验中的表现逐级变差,各模式预报中基本不出现特大暴雨,CMA 对极端降水事件发生的预报准确率较低。     

Long-term response analysis of FPSO mooring systems

The design of mooring systems for floating production units usually considers extreme environmental conditions as a primary design parameter. However, in the case of FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading) units, the worst response for the mooring system may be associated with other sea state conditions due to the fact that its extreme response may be associated with a resonant period instead of an extreme wave height. The best way to deal with this problem is by performing long-term analysis in order to obtain extreme response estimates. This procedure is computationally very demanding, since many short-term environmental conditions, and their associated stochastic nonlinear time domain numerical simulations of the mooring lines, are required to obtain such estimates. A simplified approach for the long-term analysis is the environmental contour-line design approach. In this paper a Monte Carlo-based integration procedure combined with an interpolation scheme to obtain the parameters of the short-term response distribution is employed to hasten the long-term analysis. Numerical simulations are carried out for an FPSO at three different locations considering a North Sea joint probability distribution for the environmental parameters. The long-term analysis results are compared against those obtained using extreme environmental conditions and environmental contour-line methodology. These results represent the characteristic load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units using the reliability analysis for mooring line. The results show that the long-term results are usually more critical than those obtained with the other approaches and even different mooring lines can be identified as the critical ones.     

北部湾台风风海流三维数值后报

本文采用Liu and Leendertse (1978) 的三维有限差分格式,对在1949-1987年期间对北部湾海区有较大影响的41场热带气旋作了风海流数值后报,后报的风暴潮与实测符合良好。为满足海洋工程的需要,本文还对涠洲岛西南海域某站的后报海流结果进行了分析,将该站各次台风的最大流速与极值分布拟合,给出各重现期海流值,同时对8303号台风的流场分布也作了分析。 要获得由台风引起的风海流及对应各重现期的极值作出推断,目前只能采取对台风风海流的数值后报方法,本模式计算范围西面以越南东岸为界,东面到雷州半岛、海南岛的西岸及109°30′E子午线,南至17°N(图1)。网格点的水平距离为13.8375km,垂直方向从海平面起算分为3层(0-10m,10-30m,30m-海底)。本文重点研究的站位位于涠洲岛西南(图1中A点所示),其水深为42m、所给出的风海流可代表5m、20m、36m处的数值。