灾害损失宏观预测模型震后快速评估

基于GDP宏观易损性分析方法,是从全球尺度地震灾害损失过程中发展起来的,本文在真实震例的基础上,运用宏观易损性分析方法,分别计算科考影响场与经验影响场的震后经济损失,与实际震害评估结果进行对比,初步验证该方法在省级区域震后经济损失快速评估中的可用性.     

基于宏观易损模型的河北省震后快速评估

在区域大尺度、小尺度的地震灾后经济损失快速评估中运用宏观易损性模型,结合宏观经济指标——GDP(国内生产总值)进行快速评估的方法已得到了多方验证,成为震后灾害经济损失快速评估中较为成熟的方法。利用该方法结合第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》对河北省区县级尺度的地震灾害损失进行快速评估,为今后地震事件的快速灾害损失评估提供参考。     

一种变电站地震损坏快速预测方法

变电站地震应急预案的制定与演练,以及震后电力应急处置工作的部署都需要对变电站地震损坏情况做出快速预测。本文在借鉴吸收国际变电站地震损坏评估方法及成果、统计分析国内变电站地震损坏案例基础上,采用专家调查法构建了3种电压等级（35 kV、110 kV和220 kV）变电站地震易损性函数,并提出了一种基于地震易损性函数的变电站地震损坏评估方法。利用该方法可以对变电站的整体损坏级别、设备损坏比例、震后恢复时间和经济损失快速评估。本文研究成果有助于变电站地震应急预案完善和震后第一时间电力应急处置工作的部署与开展。     

利用余震法快速判定宏观震中的研究

当前在震后快速响应阶段的盲场快速评估过程中,震中位置普遍采用速报震中,而速报震中与实际宏观震中之间存在客观的不一致性,会给震灾评估结果带来较大的误差。而在震后短时间内可用信息量极少的情况下,判断宏观震中的位置存在较大的困难,本文通过引入余震法,为震后快速判定宏观震中提出了新的思路。通过对1970年以来近40组破坏性地震的研究,利用余震法可在震后6h根据地震破裂性质推断宏观震中,其准确度、时效性都能为震后快速评估提供较为可靠的依据。     

地震人员伤亡评估理论及应用研究

地震是造成我国巨大人员伤亡的主要灾害之一,震后人员伤亡的快速评估对于应急抗震救援工作具有重要指导意义。通过分析影响地震灾害人员伤亡的主要因素,调查统计不同使用功能建筑物中人员密度、不同时间段人员在室率及不同结构破坏状态下的伤亡率,建立地震人员伤亡计算模型。基于实验数据所得的地震易损性曲线数据库对建筑物进行结构易损性分析,用研发的中国地震灾害损失评估系统软件（CEDLAS）,对西安市灞桥区进行震后人员伤亡评估,并与汶川地震实际震害数据和其他经验模型对比,验证了该理论方法的可行性及合理性,为震后政府启动地震应急预案和组织开展抗震救灾工作提供参考。     

大同-阳高3次地震的快速评估与现场评估结果对比分析

对大同-阳高1989年6.1级、1991年5.8级和1999年5.6级地震进行快速评估计算,通过地震影响场、震后人员伤亡和经济损失数据的对比,分析导致震害评估差异的主要原因,对山西省地震应急快速评估系统提出改进建议,使震后快速评估系统更好地服务于防震减灾工作,为震后抗震救灾工作提供基础支撑.     

LM-BP神经网络在震后建筑损失评估模型中的应用

当前震后建筑经济损失评估模型得到的震后建筑经济损失评估精确度、效率低,针对单一神经网络易产生局部极值等问题,对神经网络方法进行了改进,提出LM-BP神经网络在震后建筑损失评估模型中的应用。输入样本要素为影响震后建筑经济损失的5项因素,输出样本是震后建筑经济损失评估结果,在此基础上采用LM-BP神经网络将训练转化成最小二乘问题,结合LM算法重新定义隐含层节点数量,构建基于LM-BP的神经网络震后经济损失评估模型,采用该模型获取最优震后建筑经济损失评估结果。仿真实验结果表明,所设计的评估模型最小评估误差为0.1%,相比同类模型具有高精确度的优势,是一种可靠的震后建筑经济损失评估模型。     

震后公路桥梁通行能力快速评估技术研究

针对我国地震应急指挥和抗震救灾工作的实际需要,在地震应急基础数据库的支持下,对震后公路桥梁通行能力的快速评估技术进行了研究.以唐山、海城等地震的桥梁震害资料为基础,分别建立了梁桥和拱桥的易损性模型,同时建立了一套单体桥梁损伤程度和对应通行能力的简便判断方法,可以估计出震后常见公路桥梁的通行能力指标.     

一种适于震后快速评估的群体易损性分析方法

本文提出了一种适用于震后快速评估的群体易损性分析方法,将模糊数学中的熵权法确定权重和相似理论引入到群体易损性分析中,可快速准确地评估出群体建筑物的震害情况。本方法不需要详细调查城市所有房屋的结构力学参数,所采用的影响结构抗震能力的主要因素从房屋普查资料中即可获得,可作为将来震后快速评估系统的重要组成部分。同时,本方法还可以得到群体易损性曲线,可应用于预测城市震害、估计城市的综合抗震能力。本文以城镇中量大、面广的砌体结构为例,详细介绍了该方法的研究过程。最后,用算例证明了本方法的准确性和实用性。     

利用余震能量场进行宏观震中快速判定的研究

通过研究中国西部1970年以来7次MS≥6.5破坏性大地震震后24h内余震能量场的空间变化,分析和判定主震破裂的大致范围,从中得出可能的宏观震中位置,进而为大地震的应急救援提供参考。本文以汶川地震为例说明最小完整性震级的确定、能量场的计算方法及其分布图的绘制以及宏观震中的确定等,并对7次地震震后各个时段的估计震中和实际的宏观震中进行比较和分析。研究结果显示:1利用破坏性大地震震后24h内不同时段由余震能量场分布得到的宏观震中,可有效缩小用微观震中评估烈度产生的偏差;2震后2、4、6、12、24h等5个时段的估计震中能够作为烈度快速判定的修正因子满足震后快速响应的时效性要求,且震后24h的估计震中效果最好。     

基于GIS的初评估方法在盈江5.8级及缅甸7.2级地震后的应用

在“3·10”盈江5.8级及“3·24”缅甸7.2级地震发生后,对比基于GIS的地震灾害损失初评估方法,在震后1小时内给出的云南灾区范围、灾区人口、灾害直接经济损失、人员伤亡、失去住所人数的初评估结果与地震现场评估结果,来验证该方法的可行性和实用性.通过对比分析,找出基于GIS的初评估方法存在的问题,并期望通过实际地震的检验,不断发现问题,并改进、完善该方法,使之能更好为震后的科学决策和快速应急响应服务.     

基于Elman神经网络算法的地震经济损失快速评估研究

地震经济损失快速评估是应急救灾的重要决策依据。本文选取了震级、极震区烈度、极震区烈度和抗震设防烈度之差ΔI、人口密度、人均GDP等5个指标作为输入层节点,将地震灾害的直接经济损失作为输出层节点,通过对1996—2013年的地震灾害损失资料进行训练和仿真分析,构建了Elman神经网络地震经济损失快速估计模型。运用该模型,对近年来的7个破坏性地震的直接经济损失进行评估分析,评估结果和实际直接经济损失有较好的一致性,该方法为地震经济损失快速评估提供了一种新思路。     

PRE-ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LOSSES BASED ON FIELD SURVEY AND KILOMETER GRID DATASET: A CASE STUDY FROM DEHONG DAI-JINGPO AUTONOMOUS PREFECTURE

The pre-assessment of earthquake damage based on field surveys and grid dataset in 1km resolution is very helpful for emergency preparedness and mitigation of earthquake disaster losses.In this paper,we briefly introduced the contents,principles,methods and the results of software assessment as well as the revised results after field surveys.In addition,the emergency supplies and manpower requirements after the outbreak of earthquake are discussed.The assessment contents include the earthquake affected area and population,the amount of casualties,injuries,economic losses,and the number of population to be resettled.Scenario earthquake is set with an interval of 50 kilometers along the major faults and the losses induced by earthquake are outputted by the software.After that,the software outputs are revised based on field surveys.In addition,according to the earthquake cases happening between 2008 and 2015,the growth curve model used to estimate the demand of rescue supplies and teams is also proposed in this study.Based on this model and the software named earthquake emergency disaster rapid assessment and dynamic visualized software (NIE Gao-zhong,2014),and with the help of the statistical data such as population density and socio-economic situations,earthquake losses are pre-assessed by taking Dehong Dai-Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture as an example.The comparison shows that the actual losses are nearly the same as the software outputs.However,due to the ignorance of the casualties caused by geological disasters,the revised casualties are more than the software output.Not only the study area discussed in this paper,the earthquake loss assessment method can also be used to other regions in China.     

损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地易损性的影响

房屋建筑的地震易损性是地震损失评估和地震巨灾风险模型的基础。作为房屋建筑的重要组成部分,各类非结构构件的损失在现有的易损性模型中并未得到足够重视。本文以一栋典型钢筋混凝土框架结构教学楼为对象,通过将房屋建筑中的各类构件划分为具有不同地震损伤特性和损失后果的易损性组,考察建筑内的损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地震易损性的影响。分析结果表明:由于许多非结构构件在中小地震作用下即可能发生较严重的破坏,房屋建筑在中小地震下的易损性主要受非结构损失控制;随着地震动强度等级的不断提高,结构损伤渐趋严重,结构损失对整体建筑易损性的影响不断增大;在结构进入震后不可修状态之前,建筑不同楼层的损失分布是评估建筑地震损失时不可忽略的因素。     

基于强震动记录的地震生命损失快速评估方法

随着我国强震动观测数据数量和质量的大幅提高, 破坏性地震发生后所观测到的强震动记录也在试验性地转化为仪器烈度数据． 本文将强震动记录引入应急性的生命损失快速评估, 借助已有的地震应急灾害损失快速评估模型的表达方法, 提出了一种将仪器烈度概率密度函数和生命损失函数相结合的地震人员伤亡快速评估方法． 通过确定仪器烈度的概率密度, 并结合四川地区已有房屋建筑易损性研究成果, 建立了考虑建筑地震易损性并与烈度相关的地震生命损失快速评估函数, 并利用汶川地震的强震动记录对本文提出的生命损失快速评估方法进行评估计算. 结果表明, 该方法的计算结果与实际震害损失结果颇为一致, 说明了该方法的可行性, 因而能够及时为地震应急救援提供可靠信息．      

Earthquake loss estimation for Greater Cairo and the national economic implications

The Egyptian economy and culture are centralized in the Greater Cairo region. Thus, it is essential that the built environment is able to withstand the possible earthquake events that may occur, and to continue to operate and function. Failure to do so would result in significant economic losses. This study presents the latter stages of a multi-tiered probabilistic earthquake loss estimation model for Greater Cairo and builds upon previous studies of the seismic hazard. In order to assess possible damage to the built environment, and the resulting economic losses, the vulnerability of the built environment is first evaluated. Through the use of satellite images, Egypts building census, previous studies and field surveys, a building-stock inventory is compiled. This building inventory is classified according to structural type and height, and is geocoded by district. Using existing fragility curves, the vulnerability of the building stock is assessed. In addition, the vulnerability of both the electricity and natural gas networks are assessed, through the use of fragility curves, cut sets and an evaluation of the supply networks. Based on the assessment of direct losses, the losses associated with building damage far exceed those associated with the considered network infrastructure. A macro-economic model is developed that takes into account damage to the built environment and provides estimates of indirect economic losses, as well as enabling the identification of the optimal recovery process. Using this model, it is shown that the indirect losses can exceed direct losses for extreme scenarios where the economy is brought to a near standstill. The framework developed and presented herein can be extended to include more networks, and is also applicable to other regions.     

泸定Ms6.8地震房屋损失快速评估

震后房屋损失的快速评估对于灾后应急救援等至关重要。现有的地震风险评估方法要么仅提供损失的均值,要么以某一方差常数来描述损失的分布特征,均无法准确有效地反映各空间位置点损失的随机性及相关关系,最终影响整体损失评估结果的准确度。本文基于Copula理论,提出了一种适用于地震巨灾风险分析的相关随机变量模拟方法,好处是在实现快速计算的同时,能够考虑地震损失中的不确定性与相关性。利用所提方法对2022年9月5日四川泸定6.8级地震的房屋损失进行评估,得到了各结构类型与县区的损失分布,并与PAGER方法所得到的损失分布进行对比。结果表明：此次地震房屋总体损失超过89.8%的概率处于10～100亿元人民币量级水平,其中超过50.8%的概率为20～50亿元人民币;损失较大的三个县区分别是泸定县、石棉县和荥经县,砌体结构的经济损失约是框架结构的2倍;相比于PAGER,该方法给出的损失概率分布形状更加灵活,能够详细地反映不同县区的房屋损失特征。研究方法和结果为震后损失快速评估技术提供参考,也为未来地震的灾后应急救援等提供科学依据。     

ASSESSMENT ON INDIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS OF WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

The scientific and reasonable assessment of disaster loss is the basic work for disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction.Indirect economic loss is also an important part of scientific assessment for disaster influence.Taking the stricken area of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan as an example,this paper preliminarily analyzed the sections-related indirect economic loss resulting from Wenchuan earthquake by the methods of input-output analysis.The results show that,1) the sections-related indirect economic loss of Wenchuan earthquake reached up to 2 545.32 billion Yuan,which is as much as 3 times the direct economic loss in Sichuan Province.The direct economic loss does not evaluate the effects of Wenchuan earthquake disaster completely,and the indirect economic loss is an inseparable part for the systematic assessment of disaster influence.2) The characteristics of economic losses are not the same among different sectors in Sichuan.The indirect economic losses of industry and other services are the biggest in all sectors of Sichuan.However,the ratios of indirect and direct economic loss in industry,agriculture,construction are the highest,which is over 14.60,8.70 and 7.11,respectively.3) Although the uncertainty exists in the assessment result due to the limitation of input-output model,input-output analysis is still the most wildly used method to assess the indirect economic loss of natural hazard.Furthermore,the data accuracy is also an important factor influencing the economic loss assessment of natural hazard.     

Model updating and seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges

The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and ‘70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses.     

Analysis of the impact of large scale seismic retrofitting strategies through the application of a vulnerability-based approach on traditional masonry buildings

The buildings’ capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fundamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popular retrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined.