Interdecadal fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundaries in China in the past 50 years

Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951-1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20-400 km in Northeast China, 40-400 km in North China, 30-350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40-370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.     

中国不同区域能源消费碳足迹的时空变化(英文)

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of pro-ductive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

Interdecadal fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundaries in China in the past 50 years

Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951–1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20–400 km in Northeast China, 40–400 km in North China, 30–350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40–370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.     

经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

中国台湾“新南向政策”倍受社会关注。基于经贸视角及2001~2015年贸易数据,在分析经济依赖度及国际竞争力基础上,通过社会网络分析（SNA）方法探讨中国大陆在贸易网络中的地位及其对中国台湾的影响,利用VAR脉冲响应函数对比分析中国台湾与中国大陆、新南向国家的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：新南向国家对中国大陆的经济依赖度远高于其对中国台湾的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是中国台湾难以替代的;中国台湾对中国大陆的经济依赖度明显高于其对新南向国家的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是新南向国家难以替代的;中国大陆在贸易网络格局中处于核心地位,对于提升中国台湾贸易网络地位起着重要促进作用;中国大陆与中国台湾的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的正向效应明显高于新南向国家。中国台湾当局应秉承“九二共识”,抓住机遇,积极推进“新南向政策”与“一带一路”倡议融合,加强同中国大陆的经贸合作与交流,促进其经济稳定持续发展。     

Temporospatial changes of carbon footprint based on energy consumption in China

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of productive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

东北三省人口流失的测算及演化格局研究

东北三省养育了全国8%的人口,但是改革开放以来人口不断外迁和流出,东北三省人口流失问题受到广泛关注。基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样统计资料,系统地测算东北三省人口流失量,从省级和县市2个空间尺度分析东北三省人口流失的演化格局。主要结论包括：① 2000~2015年,东北三省人口出现持续流失,并且不断加剧。② 东北三省并不是中国人口流失最严重的地区。③ 东北三省内部出现较多人口流失的县市,空间范围呈现扩张。④ 经济动能不足是东北三省人口流失的主要原因。⑤ 东北三省人口发展的真正问题不在数量,而在人口质量和结构,包括人才流失严重、人口老龄化加剧、人口空间结构高度极化等。     

基于标准化降水指数的1960—2011年中国不同时间尺度干旱特征

利用1960—2011年中国566个气象站逐日降水资料,采用标准化降水指数对近52年中国的干旱特征进行了详细分析。结果表明：近52年来,中国存在一条由东北向西南延伸的干旱趋势带,东北、内蒙古中东部、华北、西北地区东部以及西南地区东部趋于干旱,而西北地区西部的北疆地区、青海中部以及西藏中北部等地呈显著变湿趋势;华北地区干旱化主要是夏季趋于干旱引起的,东北和西南地区的干旱化主要是夏、秋季趋于干旱引起的,西北地区东部和长江中下游地区主要是春、秋季趋于干旱。东北地区20世纪70年代和2000年后轻旱以上日数较多,60年代干旱日数最少;华北地区和西北地区东部90年代最多,60—80年代旱日较少;西南地区东部2000年后干旱日数最多,60—70年代较少;长江中下游地区60年代和21世纪后干旱日数偏多,80年代较少。60年代,易旱区主要位于西北地区中、西部以及长江中下游部分地区;70年代,西北西部和东北地区是干旱的高发区;80年代,易旱区位于华北、黄淮、内蒙古中西部以及西南东部等地;90年代,易旱区转移到中部,西北地区东南部、华北、黄淮、江淮以及江汉等地是干旱的高发区;进入21世纪后,东北、内蒙古东部、西北地区东部、西南东部以及长江中下游的部分地区干旱高发。     

Regional features of the temperature trend in China based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

By the Empirical Mode Decomposition method, we analyzed the observed monthly average temperature in more than 700 stations from 1951–2001 over China. Simultaneously, the temperature variability of each station is calculated by this method, and classification chart of long term trend and temperature variability distributing chart of China are obtained, supported by GIS, 1 km×1 km resolution. The results show that: in recent 50 years, the temperature has increased by more than 0.4℃/10a in most parts of northern China, while in Southwest China and the middle and lower Yangtze Valley, the increase is not significant. The areas with a negative temperature change rate are distributed sporadically in Southwest China. Meanwhile, the temperature data from 1881 to 2001 in nine study regions in China are also analyzed, indicating that in the past 100 years, the temperature has been increasing all the way in Northeast China, North China, South China, Northwest China and Xinjiang and declining in Southwest China. An inverse ‘V-shaped’ trend is also found in Central China. But in Tibet the change is less significant.     

经验模态分解下中国气温变化趋势的区域特征

By the Empirical Mode Decomposition method, we analyzed the observed monthly average temperature in more than 700 stations from 1951-2001 over China. Simultaneously, the temperature variability of each station is calculated by this method, and classification chart of long term trend and temperature variability distributing chart of China are obtained, supported by GIS, 1 kmxl km resolution. The results show that： in recent 50 years, the temperature has increased by more than 0.4~C/10a in most parts of northern China, while in Southwest China and the middle and lower Yangtze Valley, the increase is not significant. The areas with a negative temperature change rate are distributed sporadically in Southwest China. Meanwhile, the temperature data from 1881 to 2001 in nine study regions in China are also analyzed, indicating that in the past 100 years, the temperature has been increasing all the way in Northeast China, North China, South China, Northwest China and Xinjiang and declining in Southwest China. An inverse ‘V-shaped’ trend is also found in Central China. But in Tibet the change is less significant.     

Distribution and trend in the thermal growing season in China during 1961–2015

Abstract

Based on daily mean temperature at 1863 meteorological stations in China, the trend in the thermal growing season was investigated and time-evolving probability distributions of temperature were examined. Results showed that during 1961–2015, the growing season was extended at rates of 1.5–5.0 days decade^?1 in Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, and western and central parts of Southwest China. This change was ascribed to an earlier start of the growing season at rates of 1.5–3.0 days decade^?1 in North China, the northern and western parts of Northeast China, and the northeastern part of Northwest China, and a later end at rates of 0.5–2.5 days decade^?1 in Northwest China, the western and northern parts of Southwest China, and the northwest of North China. The earlier start of the growing season was in accordance with the rapid warming of lower portions of the spring temperature distribution in Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China. The later end of the growing season corresponded to rapid warming in the lower percentiles of autumn temperature distribution in Northwest China. The growing season is more sensitive to warming of lower percentiles of temperature distribution than other portions.     

Distribution and trend on consecutive days of severe weathers in China during 1959–2014

Based on daily surface climate data and weather phenomenon data, the spatial and temporal distribution and trend on the number of consecutive days of severe weathers were analyzed in China during 1959–2014. The results indicate that the number of consecutive days for hot weathers increased at a rate of 0.1 day per decade in China as a whole, while that for cold weathers, snowfall weathers, thunderstorm weathers and foggy weathers showed significant decreasing trends at rates of 1.4, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.4 day per decade, respectively. Spatially, there were more consecutive hot days and rainstorm days in southeastern China, and more consecutive cold days and snowfall days in northeastern China and western China. Consecutive thunderstorm days were more in southern China and southwestern China, and consecutive foggy days were more in some mountain stations. Over the past 56 years, annual number of consecutive cold days decreased mainly in most parts of western China and eastern China. Consecutive thunderstorm days decreased in most parts of China. The trend of consecutive hot days, snowfall days and foggy days was not significant in most parts of China, and that of consecutive rainstorm days was not significant in almost the entire China.     

气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性

在全球气温日趋升高和极端降水增加的气候背景下,近年来中国干旱变化特征异常突出,新形势下需进一步深入认识干旱灾害影响机制。利用1960—2014年中国527个气象站逐日气温和降水量数据,选用改进的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）作为监测指标,详细分析了中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间变化特征及其南北差异性。结果表明：气候变暖背景下,中国干旱范围扩大、程度加剧、频次增加;干旱发生的范围发生了明显的转移,北方干旱加剧的同时,南方干旱明显加重,尤其是大旱范围明显增加。中国干旱范围主要在黄河流域以南和长江以北地区。干旱频次北方高于南方,东部高于西部,长江流域以北干旱频次较高。中国干旱持续时间较长,而且四季都有可能发生干旱。干旱不仅发生在干旱区和半干旱区,湿润和半湿润区域也常有干旱发生。不同年代、不同区域干旱发生的程度、持续时间和频次有一定的差异。中国20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初期干旱范围最广、持续时间最长,造成的损失最严重。中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间南北差异性显著。气候变暖后,中国干旱强度加重、范围扩大、频次增加和持续时间增加明显。     

中国西部城市土地市场建设初探

土地市场建设包括市场培育和市场规范两个方面。文章通过对比中国东、中、西部地区城市土地市场发展现状，分析西部城市土地市场建设成就，找出西部城市土地市场发展中存在的主要问题，提出建设西部城市土地市场的设想和建议。     

20世纪以来东北城市的发展及其历史作用

东北地区城市的产生与发展有着悠久的历史,并形成特有的文化,但由于历史的原因,城市发展水平长期落后于中原地区。东北地区近现代城市的产生与发展是近100年的事情。20世纪以来,东北地区经历了清政府的移民实边,俄、日等帝国主义的殖民侵略与掠夺开发,新中国成立后的工业化重点发展。伴随着经济的发展和经济结构的剧烈变革,东北城市发展进入鼎盛时期,并后来居上成为我国除几个直辖市外,城市化水平最高的地区。与全国其他地区城市相比,东北城市发展有着特定的社会政治与经济背景,但也清晰而集中地反映了城市化与交通发展、工业化相互促进,同步发展的特征。本文试图把东北地区近百年来城市的发展置于区域社会政治与经济发展的进程中进行考察,着重探讨东北辽宁、吉林、黑龙江三省城市发展的动因,同时阐明它的发展对区域经济及全国经济产生的影响,分析当前存在的主要问题。     

华北降水变化研究进展

由于近60 年来华北降水量呈现减少趋势, 使该地区本已紧张的水资源形势更加严峻, 给工农业生产、居民生活、城市运行造成严重威胁, 已引起政府和科学界的高度关注, 例如为缓解华北用水紧张形势, 国家实施了南水北调工程。华北降水发生变化的机理是什么, 搞清这个问题对认识华北降水未来变化趋势及转型很有借鉴意义。本文重点从华北降水年代际变化特征出发, 回顾了海温、东亚夏季风、副热带高压、积雪和海冰变化影响华北夏季降水的机制。在归纳总结的基础上, 指出了未来研究方向, 主要包括华北降水什么时间发生转型, ENSO影响华北降水的机制以及ENSO长期变化趋势对华北降水年代际变化的影响, 印度洋海温异常影响华北夏季降水的机制, 如何更好地定量描述东亚夏季风季节内、年际、年代际变化及其影响华北夏季降水的机制, 副热带高压季节内变化、长期变化对华北夏季降水的影响。     

中国互联网区域差异的时空分析

本文将中国互联网域名地区分布数据与图形数据结合, 运用相关分析、Lorenz 曲线和区位 熵等方法, 从时间和空间上探讨了中国互联网分布的区域差异。通过分析认为: (1) 中国互联网发 展水平从东到西呈阶梯状分布。(2) 发展水平高的区域与发展水平低的区域差距较大。(3) 东部地 区和中部、西部地区的发展水平在拉大, 但全国各地区差异基本保持不变。(4) 东部地区互联网发 展速度加快, 中部地区发展缓慢, 西部地区步履艰难。(5) 互联网的发展是区域经济发展水平的反 映, 同时也具有自身的特点。     

1961~2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响

搜集并分析了全国29个省份（不包括港、澳、台地区）1961~2010年农业洪旱灾害数据,深入探讨了中国洪旱灾害时空变异规律及其对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明：中国大部分省份农业洪涝、干旱灾害具有明显的突变和趋势特征。中国中部、中西部及西北部洪涝灾害呈显著上升趋势;西北、东北地区及云南等地区干旱灾害呈显著上升趋势。除华北和东北地区外,洪涝灾害对农业的威胁日益严峻,而干旱灾害则无显著变化。这对中国粮食安全形成了重大挑战,尤其是西部以及北部地区粮食灾损率和灾损量显著上升。降水时空分布发生变化以及人类活动共同影响了中国农业洪涝、干旱时空变化特征。     

外交事务中的控制力模型及其在中国外交中的应用

构建了双边外交、多边外交的控制力模型,计算了中国典型外交圈层的相对控制力,指出中国外交工作的关键点。在双边外交中,中国的控制力与日本、俄罗斯大体相当,比韩国略高,比印度、巴基斯坦高很多,但比美国低很多。在三方外交中,中-日-韩关系中,中国占据相当大的主动权,而日本被动;但中-日-美关系中,中国被动;在中-美-俄关系中,中俄合作使美国优势地位削弱;中-印-巴关系中,巴基斯坦的进入会大大增强中国的控制力。在四方和更多方的关系中,中俄合作对中国有益。     

南海制图的中美对比分析——基于批判制图学视角

运用文本分析,从中美关于南海制图的特点及差异着手,探讨了中美制图所表达的南海领域化过程以及地图对于领域化实践的作用。研究发现：1）中美制图中南海海域范围、岛礁地名及海疆边界表达的演变,是国家权力影响制图的表现。2）中美南海制图差异源于维护国家核心利益的需求：中国通过制图（再）领域化,对内加强南海海域管控,强化国民海权意识,对外宣示南海主权;美国通过制图（去）再领域化,强调南海的公海和多国属性。3）地图作为领域化工具,能够在国际舞台上讲述中国人的南海故事,也能清晰表达中国对南海诸岛和附近水域拥有主权的一贯和明确立场。应从地图维权、地图创新、地图宣传等方面加强对南海的领域化表达,使地图在南海海洋国土治理中发挥更重要的作用。     

中美及中国周边海洋国家地缘政治关系时空演化

利用全球新闻媒体数据库对中美及中国周边海洋国家的事件关注度和事件影响力进行测算,刻画中美及中国周边海洋国家间地缘政治关系的阶段演变特征,通过社会网络分析法探索不同阶段中美及中国周边海洋国家地缘政治关系的网络特征及热点国家.研究发现:①1991-2018年中美及中国周边海洋国家地缘政治关系演变划分2个阶段:第一阶段(19...