一种改进人口数据空间化的方法:农村居住地重分类

人口( 统计) 数据空间化是解决统计数据与自然要素数据融合分析的有效途径。本文在论 述已有人口空间化方法的基础上, 认为遥感影像得到的居民地数据是表达人口分布的最好指标。 为了使居民地数据更好地应用于人口空间化的研究, 论文在分析各种与人口居住密度相关指标 的基础上, 确定了用农村居民地面积所占百分比对农村居民地进行重新分级, 然后应用于人口空 间化的计算。结果检验表明, 人口空间分布数据的误差从分级前的17.4%降到分级后的12%, 尤 其是误差高于30%的乡镇个数从8 个减少到1 个, 该方法有效地提高了人口空间数据的精度。     

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION OF EMISSIONFACTORS IN CHINA

1.IntrodctionEnvirorun~lehassionsarebyproduCtsofeconoAncadivihes.ThelevelofedrissionsgenerallyincreasesastheleveIOfeconondcaCtivitiesincreases.AsameasureofpollutioninimsihescausedbyeconoAncaedvihes,aneAnssionfaCtorgenerallytakesthefOrmofarati0bforantOtalpollutantquantityandtotaleconohacaCtivity[l],orThenumerator,totalwaSteorpollthentqUantitymaybemeasuredinwegh,orvoIumeor,somedmes,nuybemulhpliedbyahealthriskfaCtor(tokicityindex)0fthepollutant.Thedenondnator,totaleconothecaCtivities,canbe…     

典型相关分析在土地利用结构研究中的应用——以环渤海地区为例

典型相关分析是一种揭示两组多元随机变量之间相关关系的统计模型方法。本文通过介绍这一多元统计方法的内涵、特点和思路,将其引入有关地学问题的分析———判别土地利用类型分布与其影响因子之间的相关关系。以环渤海地区为例,通过数据准备、操作过程和统计检验等几个方面,全面介绍了典型相关分析在实际研究中的应用     

Error propagation in cartographic modelling using Boolean logic and continuous classification

Abstract

When data on environmental attributes such as those of soil or groundwater are manipulated by logical cartographic modelling, the results are usually assumed to be exact. However, in reality the results will be in error because the values of input attributes cannot be determined exactly. This paper analyses how errors in such values propagate through Boolean and continuous modelling, involving the intersection of several maps. The error analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo methods on data interpolated by block kriging to a regular grid which yields predictions and prediction error standard deviations of attribute values for each pixel. The theory is illustrated by a case study concerning the selection of areas of medium textured, non-saline soil at an experimental farm in Alberta, Canada. The results suggest that Boolean methods of sieve mapping are much more prone to error propagation than the more robust continuous equivalents. More study of the effects of errors and of the choice of attribute classes and of class parameters on error propagation is recommended.     

Cultivated-land change in Mu Us Sandy Land of China before and after the first-stage grain-for-green policy

Mu Us Sandy Land(MUSL) of China, as a typical eco-fragile and farming-pastoral transitional region, shows great vulnerability to disturbances from cultivation activity. In this region, the conflict between cultivation activity and environmental protection has not attracted great importance until the implementation of China's Grain-for-Green Policy(CGGP) since2000. Here, using Landsat5 TM/Landsat7 ETM+ images from 1990, 2000, and 2010, we monitor the cultivation activity and land-use/cover changes(LUCC) resulting from cultivation activity in the MUSL region. Based on the data from images, we developed a series of databases of cultivated activity-induced LUCC and use them to discuss comparatively the spatio-temporal evolution trends of cultivation activity before and after CGGP implementation. These results provide evidence for managers to evaluate the implementation effectiveness of governmental policy and the influence of cultivation activity on the ecological environment of the MUSL region.     

土地利用/土地覆盖变化与土壤侵蚀关系研究进展

土壤侵蚀作为LUCC引起的主要环境效应之一,是自然和人为因素叠加的结果。不合理的土地利用和地表植被覆盖的减少对土壤侵蚀具有放大效应。土地利用/土地覆盖变化与土壤侵蚀关系的研究已逐渐成为LUCC研究和土壤侵蚀研究的一项新的重要课题。目前,涉及土地利用/土地覆盖的土壤侵蚀研究方法有很多,本文介绍了基于模型的定量研究、基于GIS和RS的研究、基于放射性同位素的研究以及基于湖泊(水库)沉积物的研究的基本原理与研究进展,同时指出了每种方法中存在的不足。     

AN EVALUATION OF SAS/GRAPH SOFTWARE FOR COMPUTER CARTOGRAPHY1

The SAS® computer software system, widely used and respected for its capabilities in statistical analysis and data base management, now includes a new set of graphic and cartographic procedures called SAS GRAPH?. We have used these cartographic procedures in research on mapping ethno-cultural census data from metropolitan areas in Ontario and in undergraduate and graduate courses in computer cartography. On the basis of that experience, we describe and evaluate SAS/GRAPH'S cartographic capabilities and illustrate with maps drawn by various devices.     

旅游用地时空演变及其环境效应研究综述

旅游用地时空演变及其环境效应研究从20世纪30年代开始逐渐引起国内外学者的关注,并在海滨度假区、游憩商务区、环城游憩带的空间形态变化过程和变化机制以及旅游用地开发对旅游地的生态环境影响等方面取得了一些成果.研究方法以实证研究为主,具体有野外调查、模拟实验和长期监测,野外调查法被采用的最多.先进的3S技术在已被应用于旅游用地及其环境影响研究方面,但仍处于探索阶段.尤其在国内对旅游用地环境的影响研究多以社会经济统计资料、环境监测资料为依据,以野外调查为手段,缺乏对新技术的广泛应用.研究存在动态演变模型构建不足、时空尺度单一、生态环境效应的过程与机理研究薄弱、环境效应数据的动态监测缺乏等的问题.指出未来研究的趋势是:旅游用地时空演变机制的动态模拟;旅游用地时空演变环境效应时空尺度的扩展;旅游用地时空演变的生态环境效应定量评价;旅游用地时空演变环境效应的监测与预测等.     

Evaluating drivers of land-use change and transition potential models in a complex landscape in Southern Mexico

Understanding and analysis of drivers of land-use and -cover change (LUCC) is a requisite to reduce and manage impacts and consequences of LUCC. The aim of the present study is to analyze drivers of LUCC in Southern Mexico and to see how these are used by different conceptual and methodological approaches for generating transition potential maps and how this influences the effectiveness to produce reliable LUCC models. Spatial factors were tested for their relation to main LUCC processes, and their importance as drivers for the periods 1993–2002 and 2002–2007 was evaluated by hierarchical partitioning analysis and logistic regression models. Tested variables included environmental and biophysical variables, location measures of infrastructure and of existing land use, fragmentation, and demographic and social variables. The most important factors show a marked persistence over time: deforestation is mainly driven by the distance of existing land uses; degradation and regeneration by the distance of existing disturbed forests. Nevertheless, the overall number of important factors decreases slightly for the second period. These drivers were used to produce transition potential maps calibrated with the 1993–2002 data by two different approaches: (1) weights of evidence (WoE) to represent the probabilities of dominant change processes, namely deforestation, forest degradation, and forest regeneration for temperate and tropical forests and (2) logistic RM that show the suitability regarding the different land-use and -cover (LUC) classes. Validation of the transition potential maps with the 2002–2007 data indicates a low precision with large differences between LUCC processes and methods. Areas of change evaluated by difference in potential showed that WoE produce transition potential maps that are more accurate for predicting LUCC than those produced with RM. Relative operating characteristic (ROC) statistics show that transition potential models based on RM do usually better predict areas of no change, but the difference is rather small. The poor performance of maps based on RM could be attributed to their too general representation of suitability for certain LUC classes when the goal is modeling complex LUCC and the LUC classes participate in several transitions. The application of a multimodel approach enables to better understand the relations of drivers to LUCC and the evaluation of model calibration based on spatial explanatory factors. This improved understanding of the capacity of LUCC models to produce accurate predictions is important for making better informed policy assessments and management recommendations to reduce deforestation.     

国际LUCC模型研究进展及趋势

LUCC模型有助于深刻理解土地利用系统动态.经过10多年的发展,LUCC模型在理论和实践方面有了很大发展.开发新一代LUCC模型成为了GLP的一项重要任务.在大量阅读分析国际上LUCC模型应用研究的基础上.基于土地利用变化与骄动力之间相互作用表征方法的差异,从认识论的角度出发,本文将LUCC模型概括为经验一统计模型、概念机理模型和综合模型,并分别对各类模型的概念、技术方法、应用以及存在的缺陷等进行了分析.发现各种模型均能够解决特定的LUCC问题,同时也存在着缺陷和局限性.目前,LUCC建模中仍存在着时空尺度和数据方面的问题,未来LUCC模型发展趋势主要表现在解决LUCC中多尺度问题,评价和解决空间领域效应和时间动态方而的问题,土地系统可持续性综合分析与建模等方面.     

土地利用/土地覆被时空分布100年数字重建——以大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县为例

长时间序列的土地利用/ 土地覆被数据是开展全球变化、可持续发展及生态安全等各项研究的重要基础。然而,早期的土地利用/ 土地覆被数据,特别是卫星遥感数据出现之前 的土地利用/ 土地覆被信息通常很难获取。利用TM、MSS 遥感影像数据和地形图、气候、地质、地貌、土壤、植被、水文等自然环境背景图件以及数据,社会经济统计数据等多源数 据,选择大庆市杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县作为典型案例区,在GIS 技术支持下建立了土地利用/ 土地覆被数字重建模型,再现了典型研究区20 世纪30 年代和50 年代土地利用/ 土地覆被空间分布状况。通过野外调查和历史文献资料对土地利用数字重建结果进行精度评价并初步得到以下结论：① 采用逐个图斑跟踪记录的方法对研究区各个时期土地利用/ 覆被变化的敏感 性进行分析,有利于揭示区域土地利用/ 土地覆被变化的规律;② 在定量、定位分析环境背景对土地利用/ 土地覆被分布及其变化的影响基础上,综合判断各种土地利用/ 土地覆被分布概率,其结果可为土地利用数字重建提供依据;③ 对1:10 万地形图提取土地利用信息的可行性与可信度分析表明,地形图中土地利用信息完全能够达到一级土地利用分类精度,同时疏林地、灌木林、沼泽地、盐碱地、沙地等二级分类信息也能获取。     

土地利用/覆被变化研究的实质分析 与进展评述

作为当前研究的前沿领域,LUCC研究所涉及的研究内容不仅丰富而且繁杂。本文从LUCC研究计划的根本目标出发,指出LUCC所研究的诸多科学问题之间存在着紧密的联系,其实质是因果关系,而且LUCC研究可以简单明了地归纳为三个研究构成环节（LUCC原因、LUCC状况和LUCC结果）和四个核心研究内容（LUCC驱动力与驱动机制、LUCC状况、LUCC效应研究与作用机制、LUCC模型模拟与土地可持续利用）,文章针对此四个方面的研究进展进行了综述。此外,作者对LUCC的研究趋势进行了展望,指出：LUCC研究的主要趋势是走向综合,LUCC的环境效应研究与LUCC微观机理与过程的研究是当前LUCC研究的两个热点,而研究尺度的综合和模型构建是LUCC研究的两大难点问题。     

滇西北三江并流区土地利用变化研究

土地利用变化会改变地表覆盖,从而影响环境质量及陆地生态系统性质。开展区域土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究,可为区域土地资源优化利用和可持续发展提供科学依据。以第二次土壤普查资料和土地详查资料为依据,采用土地利用变化指数模型,定量分析三江并流区1983年到1999年土地利用变化特征,结果表明:(1)与土地利用结构分析法相比,土地利用变化指数模型更能反映土地变化趋势及在时空上变化特点;(2)研究区土地利用程度不断提高,其中林地园地、耕地与城郊用地增加较快;(3)1983～1996年间的变化大于1996～1999年间的变化;(4)州政府所在地(香格里拉县、泸水县、丽江县)的变化较其它地区大;(5)土地利用变化的主要原因是社会经济因素,包括人口增长、科技进步、经济增长、传统文化继承与发展、政策变化等。     

中国可持续发展问题与土地利用/覆被变化研究

土地利用 /覆被变化 (LUCC)研究 ,已成为全球环境变化和可持续发展领域前沿的核心问题。中国是世界上人多地少、生态与环境问题较为突出的发展中国家 ,目前中国可持续发展所面临的许多问题 ,都与土地利用及其变化有着内在的、必然的联系。因此 ,面向可持续发展战略的实施 ,开展土地利用 /覆被变化的系统研究 ,具有重要的科学价值与战略意义。本文重点对土地利用 /覆被变化与可持续发展重点问题的关系 ,以及面向可持续发展问题的LUCC研究目标、主要内容和技术方法等进行了讨论     

中国传统农区1820年耕地数据网格化方法

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of LUCC change with climate and ecosystem simulation, but the result could only be determined precisely if a high-resolution underlying land cover map is used. While the efforts based satellites have provided a good baseline for present land cover, what the next advancement in the research about LUCC change required is the development of reconstruction of historical LUCC change, especially spatially-explicit historical dataset. Being different from other similar studies, this study is based on the analysis of historical land use patterns in the traditional cultivated region of China. Taking no account of the less important factors, altitude, slope and population patterns are selected as the major drivers of reclamation in ancient China, and used to design the HCGM (Historical Cropland Gridding Model, at a 60 km×60 km resolution), which is an empirical model for allocating the historical cropland inventory data spatially to grid cells in each political unit. Then we use this model to reconstruct cropland distribution of the study area in 1820, and verify the result by prefectural cropland data of 1820, which is from the historical documents. The statistical analyzing result shows that the model can simulate the patterns of the cropland distribution in the historical period in the traditional cultivated region efficiently. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40471007; Innovation Knowledge Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-315 Author: Lin Shanshan (1982–), Master, specialized in historical environmental change.     

西双版纳土地利用/覆盖格局的热环境效应研究

利用Landsat TM/ETM＋数据的热红外波段,通过单通道算法,反演了中国热带西双版纳地区的地表温度,并对西双版纳地表温度演变的规律进行了分析,结果显示：（1）研究期间,西双版纳土地利用/覆盖发生了剧烈变化,有林地面积不断减少,旱地、灌木林、茶园与橡胶园面积不断增加;（2）旱地、荒草地、茶园、建设用地的地表真实温度的平均值较高,水体和有林地的平均温度较低;（3）旱地、灌木林、有林地、荒草地和橡胶园对区域的热效应贡献较大,水体、水浇地、建设用地、滩涂和水体的热效应贡献较小;有林地的热单元权重有不断减少的趋势,灌木林与旱地的热单元权重有不断增加的趋势;（4）西双版纳土地利用/覆盖的剧烈变化改变了区域地表温度的分布格局,最终可能会导致地方气候变化。需要进一步开展西双版纳地区LUCC—气候—生态系统耦合研究,深入研究区域LUCC特别是橡胶园的时空变化过程及其气候/生态效应、气候变化与LUCC过程的互馈机制,为实现区域可持续发展提供科学依据。     

基于MODIS数据网格化重建历史耕地空间分布的方法——以清代云南省为例

建立具有准确空间属性的历史时期土地覆被数据集有助于更好地模拟土地覆被变化的过程及其效应。本文基于我国过去300年耕地面积总体呈持续增加的特点,提出了历史时期耕地分布范围未超出现代耕地范围的合理假设,并以地表高程和坡度为影响土地宜垦程度的主导因子,评估了MODIS土地覆被产品中现代耕地分布区域的宜垦程度,再按宜垦程度从高...     

土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展

土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要原因,LUCC模型研究始终是土地变化科学研究的重点.论文系统总结了近10年来国内外LUCC模型在理论、方法、实践应用等方面取得的新进展.指出了亟待解决的问题,并对今后的发展方向进行了展望.研究发现,①LUCC模型的功能和作用呈现多样化趋势,是了解、认识和解释土地利用系统的动态变化特征、过程和效应的有效工具,可以服务于土地利用管理和政策的制订.②模型的核心内容是研究LUCC时空变化格局,模型发展正经历从单一的非空间模型向非空间模型和空间模型融合的演进过程,但多数模型只重视空间变化机制研究,而对时间机制考虑不足.③反馈机制是LUCC系统的一个重要特征,现有模型在反馈机制方面的研究尚十分薄弱,研究不同时空尺度的反馈机制必将是末来LUCC模型的新焦点.④LUCC研究本质上是"人类-环境"关系研究,以往模型多为局部均衡分析模型,未来LUCC模型发展趋向应从系统观和整体观角度来综合考虑"人类-环境"相互作用机制,这也是LUCC模型的最高更次的科学难点问题.⑤多尺度、多层次的综合研究是LUCC模型的必然要求,模型空间尺度已经从早期的单一空间尺度转变到现今的多空间尺度,但尺度推移仍是模型研究中值得深入探讨的问题.⑥尽管LUCC模型验证方法趋于多元化,但目前还没有一个模型验证的统一标准和规范,参考数据的不足也大大限制了模型验证效果,如何对LUCC模型的可靠性和科学性进行合理验证始终是LUCC模型所面临的关键挑战之一.     

Comparing historical and contemporary maps - a methodological framework for a cartographic map comparison applied to Swiss maps

Topographic maps are powerful tools for the purpose of identifying land use and cover change (LUCC) as they are among the most reliable representations of past landscapes for the time prior to the existence of aerial photography. In light of the increased availability of historical maps, we argue that there is a need for a standardized process to assess map comparability in a systematic way in order to avoid, or at least minimize, the detection of spurious landscape changes due to incompatible map series. A full understanding of map quality, background and error distributions is fundamental to attain reliable LUCC results. The conceptual framework presented in this study considers the context, distortion and cartographic generalization of topographic maps. Furthermore, it includes an approach to homogenize the level of generalization of landscape elements (e.g. forests) from maps with different scales. To demonstrate its application, we assessed the comparability of seven topographic maps from Canton Zurich covering a time span of 336 years (1664–2000). Overall, for the maps of Canton Zurich, a wall-to-wall comparison of forest cover based on the topographic maps presented here can be problematic for the oldest map from 1664. Based on the results, a wall-to-wall comparison with the later maps is not recommended, due to its substantial distortion. Yet, after re-generalization of natural landscape elements, such as forests, a comparison based on landscape indices is possible, even for the oldest map. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that maps from the mid-19^th century onward possess an acceptable level of accuracy. This framework can be applied to a wide range of maps at regional, national, or global levels, providing the opportunity to look at land cover history over multiple centuries.     

Exploring the impacts of future tourism development on land use/cover changes

Land use/cover changes (LUCC) are central to tourism because land is used in multiple ways as a resource for tourism-focused activities. Tourism is essentially a geographical phenomenon, encompassing the movement and flow of people (seen as the demand side) and spatial distribution patterns relating to land use consumption (seen as the supply side). However, the impacts of tourism on LUCC are difficult to track and monitor. Contributing factors of this problem include a lack of empirical studies, shortage of micro-level LUCC datasets, and scarce methodological frameworks which can be used for assessments. This paper aims to provide a LUCC modelling approach in order to explore the impacts of tourism development on built-up areas. We developed a Cellular automata model (CA) which integrates Markovian transition probabilities and logistic regression transition suitability maps. LUCC rules for tourism development are framed within the national land use policy guidelines for the development of new tourism accommodation establishments (TAE). This primarily takes into consideration land cover compatibility and the proposed development's proximity to the coastline.Three scenarios were established to explore the impacts of tourism development in LUCC for the year 2020 in a Portuguese coastal region: business as usual (BAU); tourism trends (TOUR); and natural restrictions (NATR). TOUR results indicate that the tourism and urban land use/cover growth is higher and focuses heavily on the coastal region (within 5,000 m) when compared to the other scenarios. The overall results for BAU and NATR show a general convergence with the land use policy guidelines in terms of tourism nucleation and new TAE distance to the coastline.