沙漠绿洲地区夏季地表能量收支的数值模拟

本文在MSPAS(Modified Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Scheme)的基础上,引入了一个有效的晴天大气辐射传输方案,建立了一个能在物理上真实地模拟陆气相互作用及其反馈机制的二维模式MLAIM（Modified Land Atmosphere Interaction Model）.本文利用HEIFE实验的观测资料对MLAIM的模拟结果进行了检验,对其中不合理的部分进行了分析,指出了在干旱半干旱区陆面过程参数修正的必要性,对干旱半干旱区土壤水分传输以及大气近地面层湍流输送的参数化方案进行了改进.改进后的模式能够较好地模拟夏季连续晴天条件下沙漠的地表能量收支,因此,本文利用MLAIM研究了绿洲对其周围沙漠地表能量收支的影响,并对地表能量收支各分量之间的相互作用进行了分析.结果表明,绿洲向其下风向沙漠的水汽输送是导致其上下风向沙漠间地表能量收支差异的最重要的因子.     

我国东部地区非随机持续性微震背景噪声场源的特性及定位研究

我国东部地区陆海相连的独特区位是探究微震(2~20 s)背景噪声机理的天然场所.本文发展了一种基于噪声互相关非对称性能量走时差的场源定位技术, 并结合频域偏振等方法, 利用335个宽频带固定地震台站2015—2017年期间三分量的连续记录数据, 着重研究了我国东部陆地及近海地区微震背景噪声的非随机固有特性与场源位置, 并对及其激发响应机制进行了分析.获得的主要认识: (1)近海岸的涌浪作用是致使近岸台站DF(Double Frequency)微震谱峰出现双峰或多峰现象的主导因素, 其DF谱峰的频率和幅值明显强于陆地型台站.进一步获得的LPDFMs与SPDFMs偏振特性表明, LPDFMs主特征偏振功率的强弱与观测台站所处的地质构造环境密切相关, 而SPDFMs的强弱则取决于与海岸线的距离; 从极化程度、径向与垂向分量相位差结果看, 两者在0.25 Hz附近的分段特征非常清晰, 它们的产生机理并不完全一致, 可能来源于不同的场源; 在垂向和切向上的运动学特征差异不明显, 表明SF微震并不是纯态瑞利波; (2)研究区非随机持续性SF微震噪声源的方位主要指向印度洋方向, 很可能位于南半球印度洋南部至南极洲之间的深海区, 是由海浪驻波作用于远海海底所激发; 而DF微震噪声源的方位则主要指向东南向的太平洋方向, 其中LPDFMs很可能产生于开阔近海海域海浪与海底的相互作用, SPDFMs则可能源自于我国近海区域内稳定波-波相互作用形成的另一场源.(3)周期约10 s的主要持续性噪声源位置位于日本九州岛上的ASO火山附近区域; 另一个位于北太平洋的深海区, 但其所激发的信号强度相对较弱.

     

西南区域持续性干旱事件的行星尺度和天气尺度扰动信号

以2009-2010年发生在中国西南地区的持续性干旱事件为例,通过干旱和大气变量的物理分解得到了一些干旱事件发生的新认识.气象干旱多为年循环的气候干季与干旱扰动的叠加所致.一次干旱扰动大约为30-50天,而一次持续性干旱事件是由几次干旱扰动组成的.大气高度场和风场中存在三种时间尺度的扰动.一种是年际行星尺度的大气扰动,与ENSO冷暖事件有关,起源于赤道并传播到中高纬度地区需要2-4年.另一种是季节内行星尺度的大气扰动,与来自赤道地区的30-50天振荡有关.此外,大气中还存在天气尺度的扰动.利用行星尺度大气扰动向赤道外传播与天气尺度扰动的叠加,区域持续性干旱事件能够找到前期预报信号.     

The Sahelian drought may have ended during the 1990s

Abstract

The severe drought that affects the Sahel since the late 1960s has been very closely studied and monitored during the last three decades. Recently, after several wet years, it was questioned from a statistical point of view whether the drought was over. The conclusions of a recent study were that the rainfall deficit was not over at the end of 2000 and that the drought continues. The analysis of the change points in the station rainfall time series suggests differentiating these findings. There is now growing evidence that there is a potential shift towards a more humid state. However, the present analysis shows that the assumption that a significant increase in rainfall may have occurred around the early 1990s could only be verified at the customary confidence level in about 10 years from now.     

Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013

In January 2013,a severe fog and haze event(FHE)of strong intensity,long duration,and extensive coverage occurred in eastern China.The present study investigates meteorological conditions for this FHE by diagnosing both its atmospheric background fields and daily evolution in January 2013.The results show that a weak East Asian winter monsoon existed in January2013.Over eastern China,the anomalous southerly winds in the middle and lower troposphere are favorable for more water vapor transported to eastern China.An anomalous high at 500 hPa suppresses convection.The weakened surface winds are favorable for the fog and haze concentrating in eastern China.The reduction of the vertical shear of horizontal winds weakens the synoptic disturbances and vertical mixing of atmosphere.The anomalous inversion in near-surface increases the stability of surface air.All these meteorological background fields in January 2013 were conducive to the maintenance and development of fog and haze over eastern China.The diagnosis of the daily evolution of the FHE shows that the surface wind velocity and the vertical shear of horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere can exert dynamic effects on fog and haze.The larger(smaller)they are,the weaker(stronger)the fog and haze are.The thermodynamic effects include stratification instability in middle and lower troposphere and the inversion and dew-point deficit in near-surface.The larger(smaller)the stratification instability and the inversion are,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Meanwhile,the smaller(larger)the dewpoint deficit is,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Based on the meteorological factors,a multi-variate linear regression model is set up.The model results show that the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on the variance of the fog and haze evolution are almost the same.The contribution of the meteorological factors to the variance of the daily fog and haze evolution reaches 0.68,which explains more than 2/3 of the variance.     

Numerical simulation of the detachment dynamics in North China Basin

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Power spectrum analysis of atmospheric ozone during the summer

Summary This paper describes a study of the fluctuations in total atmospheric ozone amount as measured with a Dobson Spectrophotometer during the summer season over three north Indian stations, using the technique of power spectrum analysis. In all 19 spectra have been constructed. The long term trend was removed by applying a high pass filter. The main conclusions are: (1) The nature of the spectrum at a station generally differs from year to year. (2) Spectra of different stations during the same year, are generally different. (3) From the significance study of the spectral peaks, most of the spectra revealed the presence of two types of periodicities. One of these is in the range of 10–17 days while the other is found to have a range of 4.5–8.3 days. (4) It has been suggested that the former periodicity may be closely linked to the index cycle, while the latter may be related to the long waves in the Westerlies.     

不同非感应起电及感应起电参数化方案对青海东部一次雷暴云电荷结构影响的数值模拟研究

本研究利用加入起电、放电参数化方案的数值模式（Weather Research and Forecasting Model（Version 3.7.1）,WRF3.7.1_ELEC）,通过设计五组不同非感应起电及感应起电参数化方案敏感性试验,对发生在青藏高原东北部青海大通地区的一次雷暴过程进行模拟研究,对比分析了不同非感应起电机制及感应起电机制对雷暴云电荷结构的影响.结果表明：在雷暴云发展旺盛阶段,Saunders（S91）、Riming Rate（RR）、和Saunders和Peck（SP98）三种非感应起电方案模拟的雷暴云最低层均为负电荷区,而混合方案（Brooks and SP98,BSP）模拟的雷暴云最低层为正电荷区,主电荷区自下而上为"+-+-"排列的四层电荷结构.与甚高频辐射源定位法推算的结果对比,BSP方案模拟的本次高原雷暴云电荷结构更接近实际情况;几种不同非感应起电方案模拟的主电荷区外围与主电荷区电荷结构不同,说明在雷暴发展的不同阶段雷暴云的电荷结构是不同的;几种非感应起电方案模拟的电荷结构不尽相同,主要是由于霰、冰和雪粒子在不同高度所带电荷的极性及电量的大小不同,霰粒子的电荷密度对低层的影响较大,冰粒子和雪粒子的电荷密度对中上层的影响较大;加入感应起电机制后,雷暴云电荷结构分布几乎没有变化,但能使雷暴云发展旺盛阶段低层和中层的正负电荷区电荷密度有所加强.     

Solar proton activity during cycle 23 and changes in the ozonosphere: Numerical simulation and analysis of observational data

Using the data on solar proton fluxes measured on board the GOES satellites, the most powerful solar proton events (SPEs) of solar cycle 23 are selected, and ionization rates in the atmosphere in these periods at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are calculated. Assuming that each ion pair formed at the retardation of solar protons in the atmosphere leads to the formation of 1.25 molecules of nitric oxide, 2.0 molecules of the OH radical, and one oxygen atom, changes in the content of ozone, nitrogen and other compounds were calculated using a photochemical model. The calculations showed that the strongest ionization and destruction of ozone was caused by SPEs that occurred on July 14, 2000; November 8, 2000; November 4, 2001; and October 28, 2003. The results can form the basis for compiling the catalog of changes in ionization and ozone in the atmosphere caused by solar proton activity.     

我国中东部地区夏季中尺度对流系统形成前物理量诊断分析

利用2008—2010年夏季(6—8月)FY-2地球静止卫星红外云图资料识别出我国中东部地区(110°E—124°E,27°N—40°N)共208个中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system,MCS)和 174个不能增长发展成为MCS的普通雷暴群(widespread convections,WCS).提取MCS形成前约6 h和WCS成熟时(个数最多)的NCEP再分析资料(时间间隔6 h,空间分辨率1°×1°),通过对表征水汽、动力和热力等条件的基本物理量和一些常用衍生物理量采用平均值、标准差等常用统计方法、动态合成和评估方法逐步筛选和分析诊断两种系统环境物理量场,最终从众多物理量中挑选出了能显著区别两种系统的物理量(即MCS形成的关键物理量),分别为强天气威胁指数、修正的K指数、地面抬升指数、2 m比湿和0~3 km垂直风切变,希望对预报我国中东部地区MCS发生与否提供一定的科学依据.     

岩石样品中超声波传播数值模拟及分析

为了深入研究超声波速度测试中超声波在岩石样品中的传播规律,对岩石超声波速度实验采用交错网格有限差分算法进行了数值模拟.选取了适合于超声波震源的差分精度、稳定性条件和吸收边界.通过模拟波形与实验记录波形的对比分析,结果表明:激发器和接收器直接位于岩心与探头接触面时,接收到的波形中干扰波较少,合成记录波形特征明显,易于分析;使用雷克子波作为超声波数值模拟的震源子波,计算得到实际首波初至时间为21.55μs,而波形图中首波初至时间为23.90μs,这是由于子波自身的长度使得波初至时间比实际波初至的时间晚;相对于岩心与探头接触面的反射波,岩心柱体与空气接触面的反射波对有效波形信号的影响更大.     

Episodic stream water pH decline during autumn storms following a summer drought in northern Sweden

The sources of episodic pH decline in four streams from northern Sweden during the autumn of 1996 were quantified. The events, in which pH dropped by between 1·0 and 2·4 units, were preceded by an extensive summer drought. Total organic carbon, which increased 100% to 160% during peak flow, was the most important driving mechanism of the episodic pH decline. Sulphate, however, was relatively more important during these autumn events than during spring flood. In the sites where past and present anthropogenic deposition were believed to be the main source of sulphate in stream water, sulphate contributed less than 0·3 pH units to the pH decline. In catchments where natural sources of sulphate are known to be important, sulphate contributed up to 0·6 units of pH decline. The export of sulphate during the episodes was two to nine times higher than what was expected from deposition only. The drought preceding the study episodes resulted in some of the lowest ground water levels during the 1990s in that region. The large export of sulphate was probably due to oxidation of natural sulphate bearing minerals in the soil and/or previously deposited sulphate driven by the low ground water level preceding the episodes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地-井瞬变电磁响应特征数值模拟分析

井中瞬变电磁法(Bore-hole transient electromagnetic method-BHTEM)是指接收线圈在钻井中观测瞬变场响应用以勘查深部矿产资源的勘探方法,其中以地-井(地面激发井中接收)组合方式研究最多、应用最广.本文应用时域有限差分法(FDTD),建立包含薄板导体的均匀半空间二维数学模型,采用线源为激发源,选用Mur吸收边界条件,对矩形回线源在半空间中产生的瞬变电磁场进行数值模拟,计算了低阻板状导体在均质半空间和有低阻覆盖层影响情况下的地-井瞬变电磁异常响应,并对响应的特征及规律进行研究分析,为研究地-井TEM提供参考.     

环境恶化导致我国东部夏季频现北旱南涝

根据延伸的我国晴空总辐射量和夏季气候的关系,本文再次确认反映大气污染程度的晴空太阳辐射减少对我国近年来夏季频现的北旱南涝产生显著影响．同时。它还对随后2年以上的我国北方沙地面积的扩张起相当作用．较全面研究了近年来我国东部夏季北旱南涝加速发展的前期成因。认为这是包含空气质量,土地沙化在内的我国整个生态环境快速恶化并受到温室效应和“亚洲棕云”更大范围环境变化影响的综合结果．理应引起我们高度警惕．     

Numerical simulation and analysis of the mean coastal circulation off California

A two-dimensional numerical model is applied to a coastal ocean wherein alongshore elevation and density gradients, normally calculated by a three-dimensional model, are instead supplied by climatologically averaged data for the California Current System between 25 and 40°N. Surface wind stress is also obtained from climatological data. Both surface and bottom boundary layers are resolved in the model calculations; a second moment turbulence closure submodel supplies vertical diffusivities. Near steady state solutions are possible when surface buoyancy flux is imposed at the surface.Model results are as follows: Southward wind stress produces a broad equatorward current with an embedded coastal jet in accordance with previous studies. Positive wind stress curl reduces the jet current and produces a poleward undercurrent which then surfaces as the curl is increased. The jet currents are reduced and poleward flow increases as bottom steepness increases; to a lesser extent, inclusion of the beta effect has a similar effect. The existence of near bottom, poleward or equatorward flow is explained rather simply in terms of the bottom stress resulting from the alongshore balance of surface wind stress and vertically integrated pressure gradient, the latter involving the alongshore surface elevation and density gradient. A further finding is that the upwelling circulation associated with wind stress is confined to the top 200 to 300 m of the ocean along the California coast.     

中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡空间分布及背景场特征

本文采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)及相关分析等方法,使用中国气象局整编的160站1951~2005年月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的空间模态及其大气环流背景场.结果表明:(1)中国地区降水季节性差异明显,夏季是主要的降水期并具有明显的准两年周期振荡(TBO)特征,中国东部地区是降水TBO方差变化最大的区域.(2)中国东部夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态,第1模态以27°N为界南北成反位相的变化关系,降水振幅较大;第2模态降水振幅相对较小,大值中心位于河套—华北地区.(3)形成中国东部夏季降水TBO的两个主要空间模态环流背景场明显不同.第1模态与西太平洋海温成正相关,与东太平洋海温成负相关.第2模态则主要与日本海附近的海温成正相关.当夏季降水TBO以江淮偏多时(第1模态),西太平洋海温偏高,东太平洋海温偏低,中国东部及沿海上空850 hPa有异常反气旋,500 hPa高度相关场东亚上空呈正负正波列特征,200 hPa南亚高压加强,西风急流位置偏南.当夏季降水TBO降水位置偏北时(第2模态),中国东部及沿海上空有异常气旋,200 hPa南亚高压偏弱,西风急流位置偏北.     

Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

With the influence of global warming,the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s.Although El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability,its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed,and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened.This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China.On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer,as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases,i.e.before and after the significant global warming(1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012,respectively),we concluded that(1)Under different inter-decadal backgrounds,the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency,but in the latter phase of the global warming,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)was on the strong side,the position of which was in the south,and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active,while the polar vortex extended to the south,and meridional circulation intensified.This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III,and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I,thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China.(2)In the former phase,the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences.The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)was great,and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective.In the latter phase,this identification ability decreased,while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American(PNA)teleconnection pattern increased,and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased.Based on the new inter-decadal climate background,this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian(EU)teleconnection indexes.The fitting effect was satisfying,though it is necessary to be further tested.     

Numerical study on the summer upwelling system in the northern continental shelf of the South China Sea

A three-dimensional baroclinic nonlinear numerical model is employed to investigate the summer upwelling in the northern continental shelf of the South China Sea (NCSCS) and the mechanisms of the local winds inducing the coastal upwelling, associated with the QuikSCAT wind data. First, the persistent signals of the summer upwelling are illustrated by the climatological the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) image over 1985–2006 and field observations in 2006 summer. Then, after the successful simulation of the summer upwelling in the NCSCS, four numerical experiments are conducted to explore the different effects of local winds, including the wind stress and wind stress curl, on the coastal upwelling in two typical strong summer upwelling regions of the NCSCS. The modeled results indicate that the summer upwelling is a seasonal common phenomenon during June–September in the NCSCS with the spatial extent of a basin-scale. Typical continental shelf upwelling characteristics are clearly shown in the coastal surface and subsurface water, such as low temperature, high salinity and high potential density in the east of the Hainan Island, the east of the Leizhou Peninsula and the southeast of the Zhanjiang Bay (noted as the Qiongdong-QD), and the inshore areas from the Shantou Coast to the Nanri Islands of the Fujian Coast (noted as the Yuedong-YD). The analysis of the QuikSCAT wind data and modeled upwelling index suggests that the local winds play significant roles in causing the coastal upwelling, but the alongshore wind stress and wind stress curl have different contributions to the upwelling in the Qiongdong (QDU) and the coastal upwelling in the Yuedong (YDU), respectively. Furthermore, model results from the numerical experiments show that in the YD the stable alongshore wind stress is a very important dynamic factor to induce the coastal upwelling but the wind stress curl has little contribution and even unfavorable to the YDU. However, in the QD the coastal upwelling is strongly linked to the local wind stress curl. It is also found that not only the offshore Ekman transport driven by the alongshore wind stress, the wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping also plays a crucial effect on the QDU. Generally, the wind stress curl even has more contributions to the QDU than the alongshore wind stress.     

外强迫因子变化在2003年夏季旱涝预测中的作用

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟实验室研发的全球海洋－大气－陆面过程气候系统耦合模式（IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0）,对比分析了考虑和不考虑气候的外强迫因子（太阳活动、温室气体及硫酸盐气溶胶）变化对2003年夏季中国区域的短期气候预测的影响.结果发现,由于外强迫因子变化的影响,模式模拟的中国区域2003年夏季降水距平的分布比不考虑这种变化时更接近实况,它有效地改善了无外强迫变化时模式模拟预测的中国区域降水不真实偏大的缺点,使一些地区的模拟降水量值减小,范围扩大,位置北抬.更重要的是,由于考虑了外强迫的变化,GOALS耦合模式很好地模拟出了2003年夏季淮河流域较大的降水正距平区,同时相应的500 hPa环流场的模拟也有较大的改进.     

汾渭地堑岩石圈的应力场数值模拟与分析

汾渭地堑系位于秦岭造山带以北,鄂尔多斯地块以东,是我国东部重要的一个强震活动带,构造活动十分密集.目前关于汾渭地堑的研究主要集中于其成因机制与构造演化历史、活动构造分布及地震统计、有限元数值模拟等方面.其中地震地质相关的研究主要覆盖了沉积层和地表断层层面,地球物理研究则主要关注地球的深部结构问题,整体而言较少涉及到浅部...