Mali’s many shields of its past

There is a civilization at risk. In the middle of West Africa, just south of the Sahara, where the Niger River spills into a vast floodplain (the Middle Niger), an indigenous urban civilization emerged around two thousand years ago. The story of that civilization is just beginning to be uncovered from the thousands of tells (ancient settlement mounds) that litter the Middle Niger, but archaeologists have until recently been loosing the race with the looters who plunder these sites for ancient statues and bronze art. The nation of Mali, and the local community of Jenne at the epicenter of this looting recently invented effective shields for the remains of this civilization, protections against local looters in the employ of a syndicate of wealthy European antiquities dealers. In the person of the new, democratically-elected archaeologist-President, the nation has articulated a vision of Mali’s future linked to the preservation of its past. The government has promulgated effective regulations and education programs, and initiated with the United States the world’s first bilateral import ban between a major “source” and a major “market” nation. This 1993 bilateral accord has become a prototype for many nations. In that same year, Mali established a Cultural Mission at Jenne to reinforce local pride in a local past. This local pride, in only a short period, has turned into a total protection of some 200 sites within a ten-kilometer radius of Jenne. These indigenous actions have, in less than a decade, transformed the nonrenewable archaeological resources of the Jenne region from surely one of the world’s most endangered, to a case study in local and national protection     

Museums and the market: Exploring Santa Fe

Private and public antiquities collections present disturbing parallels. What differentiates the art market and the museum? Modes of acquisition, at least in part; and the curatorial mandate to preserve, study, and display collections, however imperfectly applied. But there remain areas of troublesome confusion, illustrated by the historical relationship of museums and collectors in Santa Fe, New Mexico     

中国城市网络团购市场供需协调性评价——基于30个省会城市的实证分析

以30个省会城市为研究对象,从宏观尺度揭示中国城市的网络团购市场供给规模与需求潜力的协调性特征。结果表明:团购市场供给规模较大的城市主要集中在中国东部和西部地区;东部地区城市的供给规模和需求潜力的协调发展程度整体较好,供需失调现象明显的城市主要集中在西北地区;团购市场供给规模及其与需求潜力的协调性均遵循以经济发展水平为标尺的等级式扩张路径。餐饮、娱乐和旅游酒店3类团购市场供给规模相对需求潜力表现出了较明显的过剩现象。城市经济发展水平是团购市场供需协调发展的根本动力,团购市场供给规模和需求潜力水平是团购市场协调发展的直接动力。     

基于仿真模拟的长株潭城市群水资源供需系统决策优化

基于系统动力学的原理和方法,在充分考虑社会经济发展及城镇生态用水需求的基础上,建立长株潭城市群水资源供需系统模型,仿真模拟传统发展型、发展经济型、节水型、协调型等四种不同方案条件下,2012-2030 年长株潭城市群水资源供需变化趋势,并在此基础上,对水资源供需系统仿真方案与决策优化进行综合分析。研究结果表明:① 随着经济发展和人口增长,长株潭城市群水资源供需矛盾将日趋紧张;② 在协调型模式下,到2030 年长株潭城市群总需水量达到105.1×10⁸ m³,水资源供给能力尚有5.4×10⁸ m³富余,模拟期内水资源供给基本能够满足社会经济发展的需求,且能够获得最大的综合效益,是长株潭城市群水资源开发利用的相对较优方案;③ 为了实现预期目标,还需加快水利建设、完善用水管理、优化经济结构、增强节水意识、加大循环利用和环境整治,提高用水效率和水资源保障水平。研究结论可为促进长株潭城镇化发展与水资源高效配置提供依据,同时本文可为进一步深入探讨协调城镇化发展与水资源优化配置决策方案评价提供科学参考。     

FDI对我国劳动力就业的影响

自上世纪90年代起，我国劳动就业问题日趋严重。劳动力总量供大于求，隐性失业和显性失业并存，结构性和区域性就业矛盾突出。积极有效地治理和解决就业问题已成为政府的当务之急。本文把FDI作为应对严峻的就业问题的有效措施之一，探讨了我国城乡严峻的劳动力就业压力，FDI的飞速发展及其对劳动力就业的重要贡献，加入WTO后FDI对我国劳动力就业可能产生的影响。     

基于供给侧结构性改革的空心村综合整治研究

供给侧结构性改革是新时期推动中国经济持续增长的重要顶层设计,其实施将惠及农村的转型发展进程。空心村综合整治以优化重构乡村空间、促进城乡要素流动为目标,通过村庄整治盘活农村闲置土地及其他资源。本文以空心村综合整治为研究对象,探究了供给侧结构性改革对于空心村整治工作推进的现实意义。结果表明,传统单纯依托需求管理的经济增长方式很大程度上导致了空心村问题的出现和加剧。供给侧结构性改革将从补短板、去库存、增加制度供给三方面服务于空心村综合整治工作。为确保空心村综合整治关键技术推广应用,构建了空心村综合整治的制度保障体系,具体包括农村转移人口落户制度、宅基地有偿退出转让制度、空心村整治财税制度以及就业安置和福利制度。最后,基于城镇化背景下农村“人地宅”关系的演进历程梳理,探讨了供给侧结构性改革对于农村新型“人地宅”关系构建的重要意义。     

哈大高铁对东北城市旅游供需市场的空间效应研究——基于景点可达性的分析

本文基于GIS技术,以景点可达性为切入点,从市场供需的视角,依据市场供需的影响因素将潜力模型进行分解,得到旅游市场的供给和需求潜力模型。研究发现：①哈大高铁使东北各地到区域内各旅游景点平均时间压缩2.5 h左右,填补了东北一日游市场区的空白,拓展了两日游市场区的范围,形成以高铁为轴,以中心城市为核心,以一日游、两日游及七日游为主要形式,向高铁两侧和中心城市周边依次扩散的圈层+轴带状区域旅游空间形态。②东北城市旅游供需潜力变化均呈现随到高铁距离增加而衰减的现象,促使供需市场向高铁沿线集聚,带动了高铁旅游经济带的形成,并导致东北旅游空间集散特征更加明显。③高铁对短期游(一日游、两日游)供需市场的带动明显好于七日游市场。④基于旅游可达性,以城市为基本单元,根据核心—边缘理论,结合旅游供需潜力发展状况,将东北城市旅游市场区划分为核心区、外围区、过渡区、边缘区4类。本文认为,应以高铁等快速交通方式和旅游枢纽城市为依托,进一步完善旅游景点的交通网络,促进区域旅游供需空间网络的优化与对接。     

A regional approach to cultural preservation: A central american example

The transition to democratic governments in Central America over the past decade, and the subsequent emergence of institutional mechanisms for regional cooperation have greatly increased the frequency and productivity of efforts for preservation of cultural patrimony. Both the archaeological and colonial data bases overlap modern political boundaries and regional collaboration in training, pubic education, curation and research is essential. Natural forces continually impact, and human economic forces (especially international tourism) increasingly impact cultural resources. Regional cooperation in the utilization of human resources is necessary to confront the management and salvage demands of major economic development projects, and rescue efforts following natural disasters. The development of policies and programs will be effective only if matched by the growth of cultural preservation professionals in each of the Central American republics. Finally, other art consuming nations in addition to the United States must begin to respect the cultural heritage of the Central American countries and develop policies to deter abuses by diplomatic staff and employees of NGO’s (nongovernment organizations)     

基于呼伦贝尔市案例的生态旅游开发研究

呼伦贝尔市独特的地域文化特色和以草原为主的生态旅游资源具有生态旅游发展的巨大潜力。本文基于波特的钻石模型分析原理,从资源供给、市场需求、企业竞争态势、支撑产业、机会把握、政府作为等六个方面分析了呼伦贝尔市开发生态旅游的竞争潜力．揭示了其发展生态旅游存在的主要问题与挑战,提出了生态旅游开发的总体战略及基本思路。     

STRUCTURAL TENSION,MIGRATION, AND DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY OF VENEZUELA*

Mismatch of labor demand and supply, resulting from economic growth, is referred to here as structural tension. Spatial variations in structural tension are identified for Venezuelan states in 1971. Positive tension, indicating overutilization of human resources, prevails in urban areas. By contrast, rural locales exhibit underutilization due to rapid labor force growth without parallel increases in employment opportunities. Influence of structural tension, coupled with other migration determinants, upon destination choice by economically active immigrants is explored. Structural tension emerges as strongly significant for the total sample, displacing wages from the model. This is consistent with our contention that wages are a less precise indicator of labor supply and demand.     

华北平原农业水资源供需状况评价方法

随着国民经济的发展,城市化规模的扩大以及人口的增加,华北平原农业水资源的供需矛盾日趋尖锐。人们在进行供需评价时,曾一度停留在水量的供需平衡上,以需定供,缺少对水资源供需之间的矛盾及不协调的问题进行深层次的分析。此文采用综合评价模型对农业水资源供需现状进行评价。这是一种定量化的评价分析方法,即首先对影响供需状况的因素进行分类,形成一个层次,而每一个因素又由若干个指标组成,构成下一个层次,依次类推,这样就构成了一个层次间互相联系的指标体系。对每个地区,每一个因素和指标用评定系数来表示该因素或指标对供需状况的作用,然后再用综合评价模型对该地区供需状况进行计算和总体评价。     

洞庭湖生态经济区生态服务供需平衡研究

基于洞庭湖生态经济区土地覆被类型和土地利用现状,测算并研究区域内供给服务、调节服务、支持服务和文化服务及生态服务总量供给的价值当量;根据国家相关建设指标规定和人均资源消耗量,估算各项生态服务需求量价值当量;进而对区域内生态服务的供—需盈亏状态进行分析。结果表明：① 洞庭湖生态经济区各项生态服务及生态服务总量供需状况良好,供需比均大于1.2;② 不同生态服务供需状况存在差异,支持服务（1.46）>调节服务（1.44）>供给服务（1.39）>文化服务（1.28）;③ 供需比在空间上整体呈现“四周高中间低”的分布模式,北侧荆州供需比偏低;④ 城乡供需状况差异显著。本次研究囿于行政边界,基于自然边界的供需状况研究有待深入。     

矿产资源市场与贸易的变化格局及对中国经济的影响(英文)

自20世纪70年代初期和80年代末期以来,国际矿产品市场经历了总体衰退阶段。与此相反,由于世界经济快速增长,特别是90年代初的中国和21世纪初的印度快速发展,导致世界矿产市场和贸易中对矿产资源的需求大幅上升。过去几十年来,矿产资源的生产、消费和贸易对中国的经济增长与发展起了重要的作用。本文主要对国际矿产品市场和贸易模式的变化特征进行了综合评价,力图筛选出影响中国矿产资源供需的主要因素,并实证分析中国矿产资源贸易及其发展前景的基本特征。作者认为,中国矿产资源的巨大潜力能否成为国际矿产资源贸易的主要驱动力并因此带动中国未来经济增长,依然值得继续观察。无能如何,中国正积极影响着全球矿产资源市场和贸易,这一点是肯定的。     

中国旅游供需耦合协调发展的空间分异及驱动机制研究

基于耦合协调模型测算2004―2016年中国31个省(市、区)(不含港澳台)旅游供需耦合协调度,利用空间自相关法、面板数据模型、地理加权回归模型,从全局和局部空间视角分析旅游供需耦合协调发展的影响因素,并探讨其驱动机制。研究表明:①旅游供需耦合协调发展的空间地带性差异显著;空间相关性愈发明显。②固定效应、动态面板模型、空间误差(SEM)和空间自回归混合模型(SAC)估计结果表明,产业结构、资源禀赋、制度变迁、资本因素与旅游供需耦合协调发展呈正相关关系,直接效应和间接效应显著。③地理加权回归模型(GWR)估计结果表明各影响因素的空间分异作用明显,产业结构由东南和北部边缘地带向内陆递减;资源禀赋以西北部为核心逆时针扩散;制度变迁由东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少,"一高一低"两极对峙;资本因素沿东南沿海向西北内陆顺时针递减。④旅游供需耦合协调发展演化的驱动机制包括产业结构、资源禀赋、资本驱动力和制度变迁调控力。     

供给侧改革背景下的黑龙江省旅游需求和旅游供给耦合协调发展

在供给侧结构性改革背景下,依据耦合协调原理与模型,构建旅游供需评价指标体系,对黑龙江省旅游供需发展水平和耦合协调关系进行分析。研究表明：① 旅游需求和供给系统综合发展指数波动上升,发展态势良好;② 旅游供需耦合协调度平稳增长,耦合协调等级经历轻度失调-濒临失调-勉强协调-初步协调;旅游供给滞后为历史特征,旅游需求滞后渐显扩大;③ 旅游需求和旅游供给各子系统耦合协调等级介于勉强协调与初级协调阶段;旅游供给子系统相对滞后,且交通供给滞后更为凸显。     

广州长者饭堂供需匹配的类型、差异及调整思路

以广州市长者饭堂为研究对象,采用百度地图API、居民点POI、广州市为老综合服务平台等多源数据,综合考虑可达性和运营可行性,并对两步移动搜索法进行改进,通过转换测度结果和过程变量,刻画长者饭堂的供需匹配情景。研究发现：1）广州长者饭堂在“行政单元全覆盖”推广下供需空间匹配度六成合格,形成平衡型、剩余型和短缺型的数量“631”结构;2）供给和需求的主体优势、空间分布错位,需求获取优势高于供给,空间呈现“内低外高—单中心圈层”供给结构与“南强北弱—多核网状”需求结构;3）出行优势中心两级分化,成为剩余型和短缺型的主要聚集地。主核心片内出现“老城中心洼地”和“黄埔高地”,外围行政区出现多个剩余小高地或短缺谷地。最后,为精准干预长者饭堂网点布局,提出存量提升、配对整合、存量精简等适宜不同空间关联条件的不匹配型优化思路,优先考虑强空间关联的剩余型和短缺型街道配对整合;以及直接提升、主动提升、被动提升的匹配型提升思路,实现广州长者饭堂全覆盖全匹配目标。     

Reconsidering the Suitability Assessment Method for Glacier Tourism: A Case Study from Tibet,China

Glacier retreat is becoming more widespread and severe due to global warming, and improper exploitation of glacier resources by tourism activities accelerates the destruction of glacier landscapes. Therefore, establishing a set of quantitative assessment tools is critical for guiding the rational utilization of glacier tourism resources. This study selected regional tourism resources, the natural environment of glaciers, service support, and market demand factors to build a suitability assessment method for glacier tourism (SAMGT), and it used the Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the index weights, and combined them with GIS analysis technology. The Tibet autonomous region was proposed in this study as a case to build the SAMGT and provide scientific support for the rational development, scientific management, and sustainable development of glacier tourism resources. With regard to influencing the suitability of glacier tourism resource development, the results indicate that the weights of glacier resource endowment, ecological vulnerability, and tourism resource combination were high whereas that of market demand-related factors was low. The glacier tourism resource development area in Tibet can be divided into suitable, relatively suitable, barely suitable, and unsuitable exploitation zones, accounting for 5.39%, 9.76%, 15.28%, and 69.57% of the total area, respectively. Five representative glaciers were selected to verify the validity or test the rationality of SAMGT and prove that the model is reasonable, innovative, and effective from the perspectives of multiple dimensions and the comprehensiveness of the selected indicators.     

生态系统服务供需关系及空间流动研究进展（英文）

基于生态系统服务供需关系的空间流动研究是连接生态系统服务供给与人类福祉的关键环节。理解生态系统服务产生、流动、使用的全部过程,准确评估生态系统服务供需平衡状况,建立供给与需求之间双向反馈关系,对于科学管理生态系统和保障区域资源可持续发展具有重要意义。综合大量相关文献,本文从生态系统服务供需关系角度出发,归纳了生态系统服务供给、需求的概念和评估方法,阐述了全球变化背景下,土地利用和气候变化两个主要驱动力对生态系统服务时空变化的影响。系统梳理了生态系统服务空间流动方面的研究进展,发现目前研究在文化服务的量化、生态系统服务流动动态研究以及生态系统服务的驱动机制研究方面存在不足,提出明确生态系统服务驱动机制和转移过程、实现生态系统服务不同时空尺度之间的相互转换,是未来将生态系统服务研究更好地用于实践的重要方法。     

China’s food security situation and key questions in the new era: A perspective of farmland protection

As the world’s largest developing country, the ability of China’s agricultural resource utilization to effectively support the current and future food security goals has been affected by a variety of factors (e.g., transformed supply channels, tightening international situation and frequent emergencies) in recent years and has attracted extensive attention from the academic community subject to multiple factors. This study uses literature review, statistical analysis, and spatial analysis methods to systematically explore China’s food security situation in the context of farmland resource constraints. It is found that the demand-side pressures such as demographic changes, social class differentiation, and dietary structure adjustments derived from economic growth and rapid urbanization have placed extremely high expectations on food supply. However, the quantitative restrictions, utilization ways, and health risks of farmland resources on the supply side constitute a huge hidden concern that affects the stability of food production. Although China’s farmland protection system is undergoing a transition from focusing on quantity management to sustainable use, the matching and coordinating demand pressure and supply capacity for food security is unbalanced. Therefore, facing uncertain future development scenarios, policymakers should focus on building a resilient space for China’s farmland protection to withstand the interference of major emergencies. The existing farmland protection space policy can be integrated by establishing a national farmland strategic reserve system (based on resilient space), and further development of targeted use control measures for zoning, grading, and classification will help realize sustainable China’s farmland resources use.     

流域尺度生态需水的估算模型与应用--以克里雅河流域为例

以我国西部典型干旱区新疆南部的克里雅河流域为研究区,通过分析各生态系统需水的结构特征,估算了生态需水的规模,讨论了生态需水的供需平衡问题。研究发现,全流域生态需水总量约为6.93×10⁹m³/a,平均每公顷植被的最小生态需水为413.9m³/a。在各植被类型中,沼泽地耗水、草地耗水、林地耗水分别约占植被总生态需水量的47.6%、43.4%与9.0%,由此可见,沼泽地和草地耗水是该流域植被生态需水的主体。研究结论对于制定水土资源开发利用规划,保障当地水资源的良性循环,实现水资源的可持续利用,恢复和重建生态环境,具有重要的参考价值。