西藏地区复杂地形下的降水空间分布估算模型

本文提供了一个描述西藏地区年、季降水量空间分布的估算模型.利用卫星遥测数字化地形高程资料和西藏地区仅有的27个常规气象站的多年平均降水整编资料,根据地形坡向站点分为三类.再采用多元逐步回归方法,建立西藏地区的年、季降水量和经度、纬度、海拔高度、坡度、坡向、遮蔽度等6个地理、地形因子之间的关系模型,估算西藏地区降水量的空间分布.结果表明,此方法建立的关于西藏地区降水量与诸因子之间方程的相关性显著,平均绝对误差、相对误差分别为0.93mm和1.16%,对估算模型进行F检验,均通过置信度为0.95的相关检验,回归效果较显著.分析表明估算降水能够定量、定性地再现西藏地区的实际降水分布.     

中国降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性

利用中国740站45年降水资料按5种分辨率分气候区计算了降水年际和年代际变率. 降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性分析表明,中国各气候区降水年际变率对空间尺度的敏感性都随空间尺度的增加而逐渐减小,且存在明显的季节变化,而年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性却随空间尺度的增加而增大,但不存在季节变化;由于中国各气候区降水的特殊性,各气候区降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感程度存在不可忽视的差异.在年际和年代际尺度上,西南地区降水变率对空间尺度都是最敏感的,因而该区域降水年际和年代际变率信号的检测最困难.而华南地区在年际尺度上比较敏感,年代际尺度却不敏感,但华南地区在年际和年代际尺度上区域内降水分布的非均匀程度对空间尺度的敏感性都最大.     

A cluster-optimizing regression-based approach for precipitation spatial downscaling in mountainous terrain

Precipitation temporal and spatial variability often controls terrestrial hydrological processes and states. Common remote-sensing and modeling precipitation products have a spatial resolution that is often too coarse to reveal hydrologically important spatial variability. A statistical algorithm was developed for downscaling low-resolution spatial precipitation fields. This algorithm auto-searches precipitation spatial structures (rain-pixel clusters), and orographic effects on precipitation distribution without prior knowledge of atmospheric setting. It is composed of three components: rain-pixel clustering, multivariate regression, and random cascade. The only required input data for the downscaling algorithm are coarse-pixel precipitation map and a topographic map. The algorithm was demonstrated with 4 km × 4 km Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation fields, and tested by downscaling NEXRAD-aggregated 16 km × 16 km precipitation fields to 4 km × 4 km pixel precipitation, which was then compared to the original NEXRAD data. The demonstration and testing were performed at both daily and hourly temporal resolutions for the northern New Mexico mountainous terrain and the central Texas Hill Country. The algorithm downscaled daily precipitation fields are in good agreement with the original 4 km × 4 km NEXRAD precipitation, as measured by precipitation spatial structures and the statistics between the downscaling and the original NEXRAD precipitation maps. For three daily precipitation events, downscaled precipitation map reproduces precipitation variance of the disaggregation field, and with Pearson correlation coefficients between the downscaled map and the NEXRAD map of 0.65, 0.71, and 0.80. The algorithm does not perform as well on downscaling hourly precipitation fields at the examined scale range (from 16 km to 4 km), which underestimates precipitation variance of the disaggregation field. For a scale range from 4 km to 1 km, the algorithm has potential to perform well at both daily and hourly precipitation fields, indicated from good regression performance.     

北京城市化对夏季大气边界层结构及降水的月平均影响

为克服针对一次或几次天气过程研究城市化对边界层结构及降水影响的局限性,尝试研究北京城市化对夏季大气边界层结构及降水的月平均影响,本文首先总结了2006年8月份的主要天气过程,分析了气象站观测的10 m高度风速、2 m高度气温、2 m高度比湿和24 h降水的月平均分布特征,然后利用WRF/Noah/UCM模拟系统,进行了该月30个个例的高分辨率数值模拟及检验分析,并通过多组不同城市化情景的敏感性试验对比分析了城市化对夏季大气边界层结构及降水的月平均影响.研究表明:本文所用对高分辨率数值模拟结果进行月平均的方法可以较合理地模拟出城市化对大气边界层结构及降水的影响,并再现观测到的各站风频差异.8月份,北京城市化对气温的影响高度白天约为800 m,近地面气温升高1℃以上;夜间约为200 m,对近地面气温的影响达到最大(1.4℃以上).白天,城市化使城市及下风向的一些区域风速略有减小;夜间,城市及周边区域200 m以下风速明显减小,且在100 m左右高度处风速减小最明显,减小达0.8 m/s以上.城市化白天使700 m以下比湿减小,近地面处减小达1.2g/kg以上,夜间使近地面空气比湿略有减小.城市化对城市区域平均降水量的影响随城市发展的不同阶段而不同.初步模拟分析表明, 北京城市化已使上风向区域以及城区三环以内降水量减少,海淀和昌平降水明显增加.     

Regionalisation of precipitation for the Iberian Peninsula and climate change

Temporal variability of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has high spatial gradients. Therefore, statistics of the temporal behaviour of precipitation and derived quantities over the IP must be estimated taking into account these spatial gradients. Some statistics can be displayed over a map. However there are statistics, such as Probability Density Functions at each location of the IP, that are impossible to display in a map. Because of this, it is mandatory to reduce the number of degrees of freedom which, in this case, consists of a reduction of the time series representative of the IP domain. In this work, we present a spatial partition of the IP region into areas of similar precipitation. For that, an observed dataset of daily-total precipitation for the years between 1951 and 2003 was used. The land-only high resolution data was obtained on a regular grid with 0.2° resolution in the IP domain. This data was subjected to a k-means Cluster Analysis in order to divide the IP into K regions. The clustering was performed using the squared Euclidean distance. Four clusters of IP grid points, defining 4 IP regions, were identified. The grid points in each region share the same time-varying behaviour which is different from region to region. The annual precipitation discriminates the following regions: (1) north Iberia, (2) a large region extending from the centre to the Mediterranean shores of the IP, (3) a large region ranging from the centre to the western and southwestern shores of the Iberia, and (4) northwest Iberia. The regions obtained for the four seasons of the year are similar. These results are consistent with the thermodynamic characteristics described in the available literature. These Iberian regions were used to assess climate change of seasonal precipitation from the multi-model ensemble of the fifteen simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. Probability Density Functions of annual- and seasonal-total precipitation, consecutive dry days, and total precipitation above the 95th percentile, averaged in each region were estimated for a reference climate (1961–1960), a near-future climate (2021–2050), and a distant-future climate (2069–2098). Climate change projections are based on comparisons of these functions between each future climate and the reference climate.Finally, we emphasize that: (i) the methodology used here, based on Cluster Analysis, can be used to regionalise other areas of the world, and (ii) the identified regions of the IP can be used to represent the Iberian precipitation by four time series that can be subjected to further analysis, whose results can be presented in a concise manner.     

Linking spatial data from different sources: the effects of change of support

A nationwide Environmental Public Health Tracking program is being created to monitor environmental impacts on human health. This, and many other efforts to relate environmental and health outcomes, depend largely on the synthesis of existing data sets; little new data are being generated for this purpose. More often than not, the data available for such synthesis have been collected for different geographic or spatial units, and any set of these units may be different from the one of interest. In this paper, we compare and contrast two approaches that can be used within a Geographic Information System to link spatial data from different sources. The first approach works with centroids of areal units and is commonly used in environmental health analyses. The second approach honors the spatial support (size, shape and orientation) of the data. Using traditional regression models and a spatially-varying coefficient regression model, we show that different linkage methods can lead to different inference. We describe key ideas pertaining to the support of spatial data that are often ignored in many analyses of environmental health data and present a general analytical approach to change-of-support problems.     

不同能谱沉降电子对极区电离层的影响

利用极区电离层自洽模型,考虑沉降电子引起的电离,计算了极区电离层的高度积分电导率和F层电子浓度,模拟了不同能谱分布的沉降电子对极区电离层的影响.研究发现不同能谱分布沉降电子对电离层电导率的影响不大,在能通量一定的情况下,平均能量是影响电导率大小的决定因素.而能谱对F层电子密度影响较大,随着平均能量的增加,能谱对电子浓度的影响越显著.在平均能量大于1 keV（甚至更低）时,修正的麦克斯韦分布谱能明显地增强F层电子浓度.     

中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估

基于24个CMIP5全球耦合模式模拟结果,分析了中国区域年平均降水和ETCCDI强降水量(R95p)、极端强降水量(R99p)对增暖的响应.定量分析结果显示,CMIP5集合模拟的当代中国区域平均降水对增温的响应较观测偏弱,而极端降水的响应则偏强.对各子区域气温与平均降水、极端降水的关系均有一定的模拟能力,并且极端降水的模拟好于平均降水.RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,随着气温的升高,中国区域平均降水和极端降水均呈现一致增加的趋势,中国区域平均气温每升高1 ℃,平均降水增加的百分率分别为3.5%和2.4%,R95p增加百分率为11.9%和11.0%,R99p更加敏感,分别增加21.6%和22.4%.就各分区来看,当代的区域性差异较大,未来则普遍增强,并且区域性差异减小,在持续增暖背景下,中国及各分区极端降水对增暖的响应比平均降水更强,并且越强的极端降水敏感性越大.未来北方地区平均降水对增暖的响应比南方地区的要大,青藏高原和西南地区的R95p和R99p增加最显著,表明未来这些区域发生暴雨和洪涝的风险将增大.     

III: Methods of correcting for systematic errors in atmospheric precipitation measurements in Czechoslovakia

The methods of correcting for systematic errors in precipitation measurements using the Czechoslovak gauge METRA 886 are presented. This gauge has an orifice area of 500 cm² and is elevated 1 m above the ground. The wetting correction amounts to 0.1–0.2 mm per measurement. The evaporation correction ranges from 3 per cent in frost-free periods to 10 per cent in frost periods. The wind-induced correction amounts to 5 per cent for rain and 45 per cent for snow. The total sum of corrections on average 10–15 per cent per year in lower localities.     

A simple model for spatial rainfall fields

Spatial rainfall amounts accumulated over short to medium periods of time, say a few days, tend to have a probabilistic structure with very distinctive features. Some of these that are specially relevant for the purpose of spatial modeling are the presence of mixed sampling distributions, right skewed distributions conditional on rainfall occurrence, and a complex spatial association structure. The goal of this work is to construct a family for the bivariate distributions of spatial rainfall fields that incorporates these distinctive features. It is based on the separate modeling of spatial occurrence of rainfall and the spatial distribution of positive rainfalls. The main properties of the bivariate distributions are derived, and some properties of the random field realizations are illustrated through simulation. Some limitations of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Effects of precipitation on summer epilimnion thickness in tropical lakes

This study aimed to evaluate the importance of physical, chemical and biological factors (e.g., chlorophyll-a, and carbon) in the regulation of the summer epilimnion thickness (Zmix) of the tropical lakes focusing on trends of the current environmental variability. We sampled a set of tropical lakes from the middle Rio Doce lacustrine system (Minas Gerais, Brazil) for two consecutive summers. Besides Zmix, we analyzed the visible light attenuation (Kd_PAR), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), total suspended solids (TSS), and fetch. We also analyze the quality of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) through colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), spectral slope (S), DOC-specific absorbance (SUVA) and the ratio between the absorbance at 250 nm and 365 nm (E_250:365). Our results showed quite different results during the two years studied. In the summer of 2012, when there was higher rainfall, variations in Zmix were correlated to the optical factors associated with DOM quality, while in the drier summer of 2013 Chl-a, TSS and fetch were the variables that more explained Zmix. It suggests that DOM regulates the Zmix in the rainy periods in the studied tropical lakes and that control is determined by the balance between the DOM input (runoff) and output (such as photodegradation) of the aquatic systems. In reduced rain conditions (summer 2013), the factors responsible by chemistry photodegradation of DOM were predominant, and the organic matter was no longer controlling Zmix, which was driven by internal mixing, productivity, and the wind (Chl-a, TSS and fetch). In this study we showed how changes in precipitation might cause shifts in the factors that regulate the epilimnion thickness in tropical lakes.     

A spatial disaggregation procedure for precipitation

Abstract

A disaggregation procedure is presented to render forecast values of precipitation from an atmospheric model with spatial resolution of 11 × 11 km suitable as input for a distributed hydrological model with spatial resolution of 1.1 × 1.1 km. Statistical and morphological properties of the input field, such as spatial mean, variance, correlation structure and intermittency, are respected in the disaggregated field. The adopted approach is a combination of interpolation and simulation. The four nodal points of the atmospheric model grid cell are used both for determining the parameters of the exponential distribution for simulating precipitation values, and in a simple interpolation procedure to determine the spatial location of the precipitation values. A shifted distribution with two parameters is used in the case of full coverage of the grid cell, and a one-parameter distribution with a theoretically derived intermittency parameter is used if intermittency is present. The results are promising with respect to the statistical and morphological properties of the disaggregated field.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

Regionalization of Europe based on a K-Means Cluster Analysis of the climate change of temperatures and precipitation

In order to study climate change on a regional scale using Earth System Models, it is useful to partition the spatial domain into regions according to their climate changes. The aim of this work is to divide the European domain into regions of similar projected climate changes using a simulation of daily total precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for the recent-past (1986–2005) and long-term future (2081–2100) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The difference between the long-term future and recent-past daily climatologies of these three variables is determined. Aiming to objectively identify the grid points with coherent climate changes, a K-Mean Cluster Analysis is applied to these differences. This method is performed for each variable independently (univariate version) and for the aggregation of the three variables (multivariate version). A mathematical approach to determine the optimal number of clusters is pursued. However, due to the method characteristics, a sensitivity test to the number of clusters is performed by analysing the consistency of the results. This is a novel method, allowing for the determination of regions based on the climate change of multiple variables. Results from the univariate application of this method are in accordance with results found in the literature, showing overall similar regions of changes. The regions obtained for the multivariate version are mainly defined by latitude over European land, with some features of land-sea interaction. Furthermore, all regions have statistically different distributions of at least one of the variables, providing confidence to the regions obtained.     

Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed.     

Chloride in precipitation and streamwater for the upland catchment of river severn,mid-wales; some consequences for hydrochemical models

Variations in the concentration of Cl in rainfall and stream runoff are presented for two catchments in the Hafren forest of mid-Wales, Great Britain. Despite the large fluctuations in rainfall concentrations, Cl in the streamwater remains relatively constant. Using the two-reservoir Birkenes model, an attempt was made to simulate observed Cl in streamwater. The original model was unable to reproduce the observations and several modifications are suggested to provide better simulations. The resulting model is not the only one capable of reproducing the observations; other hydrochemical models will most probably also achieve this although emphasis will in each case be placed on different aspects. In this paper, it is suggested that the stochastic properties of water movement and chemical processes can account for the streamwater chemistry responses observed. On the catchment scale these processes will lead to an apparently deterministic behaviour that may well be described by simple relationships.     

降水过程对断层CO2气体异常排放响应的个例分析

为了从观测事实的角度揭示岩石圈的热异常对大气圈的影响,本文利用怀来后郝窑测点的断层气CO2排放观测数据和中国752站降水的逐日观测资料,分析了断层气CO2异常排放与降水事件的时空演变联系.个例分析结果表明,断层气CO2的异常排放会导致局地降水的增多.以1991年为例,伴随着断层气CO2排放的异常增加,在大范围降水负异常的背景下,CO2排放点周边区域出现显著的降水正异常（降水距平百分率大于零）区.同时,CO2异常幅度较大的时段,相应的降水正异常区的中心值也较大.此外,分析降水响应断层气CO2排放异常的时间还发现,断层气CO2异常排放对其后10天内的降水过程影响最为显著.     

Interannual variability in western US precipitation

Low-frequency (interannual or longer period) climatic variability is of interest, because of its significance for the understanding and prediction of protracted climatic anomalies. Since precipitation is one of the key variables driving various hydrologic processes, it is useful to examine precipitation records to better understand long-term climate dynamics. Here, we use the multi-taper method of spectral analysis to analyze the monthly precipitation time series (both occurrence and amount) at a few stations along a meridional transect from Priest River, ID to Tucson, AZ. We also examine spectral coherence between monthly precipitation and widely used atmospheric indices, such as the central Northern Pacific (CNP) and southern oscillation index (SOI). This analysis reveals statistically significant ‘signals' in the time series in the 5–7 and 2–3 year bands. These interannual signals are consistent with those related to El-Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial variability identified by others.