Magnetotelluric measurements on the Methana Peninsula (Greece): modelling and interpretation

As a first deep geophysical survey, thirteen magnetotelluric and magnetovariation soundings in the period range of 0.0085–6000 s have been carried out in the Methana Peninsula and Trizina area (Greece), which form the western part of the active Hellenic Volcanic Arc. Data have been processed using robust techniques and further analysed using decomposition methods in order to find the regional azimuth. By using the smooth inverse of Smith and Booker (J. Geophys. Res. 96, 3905–3922, 1991), the 2-D modelling has resolved a low-resistivity area (<30 Ω m) at depths of 2–3 km beneath the volcanics, whereas elsewhere the resistivity is much higher (>100 Ω m). Parkinson induction arrows also at the range 0.01–0.1 s point towards the centre of the peninsula. The conductivity anomaly is interpreted as being connected with the volcanic history of Methana, as a cooler remnant of former magmatic activity. The contrast with the much higher resistivities suggested at depths >5 km, is discussed in terms of fluid mobility, limitation of the MT method and extensional processes in the southern Aegean.     

Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

The AD 365 Crete earthquake and possible seismic clustering during the fourth to sixth centuries AD in the Eastern Mediterranean: a review of historical and archaeological data

Historical and archaeological data are used to test geological claims that, in the fourth to sixth centuries AD, the Eastern Mediterranean experienced an unusual clustering of destructive earthquakes (the ‘Early Byzantine Tectonic Paroxsym’). A review of historical accounts of a notable earthquake at this time, that of 21 July AD 365, indicates that this event destroyed nearly all the towns in Crete and was followed by a tsunami which devastated the Nile Delta. The AD 365 event was also probably responsible for reported or observed destruction in ancient towns of west Cyprus and Libya. This earthquake is most likely to be identified with a Hellenic Arc subduction-zone event of ‘great’ (M>8) magnitude, as testified by up to 9 m of uplift in western Crete dated by previous geological studies to around this time. Historical and archaeological data also support the hypothesis that the fourth to sixth centuries AD was a period of abnormally high seismicity in the Eastern Mediterranean. The high seismicity rates of this period may reflect a reactivation of all plate boundaries in the region (Dead Sea Transform, East Anatolian Fault, North Anatolian Fault, Hellenic Arc, Cyprus Arc Fault).     

Magnitude–distance relations for earthquake-induced landslides in Greece

A data set of 47 earthquake-induced landslides occurring in Greece from AD 1650 to 1995 has been compiled, and the landslide distribution has been examined. The spatial distribution indicates landslides occurrence almost everywhere in Greece with the exception of the north Greek mainland, which is likely due to the low occurrence frequency of large earthquakes. The earthquake magnitude, M_s, ranges between 5.3 and 7.9, while the main bulk of events falls within the range 7.5≥M_s≥5.3 with peaks at M_s=6.4 and 6.7. The upper bound of the maximum epicentral distance, R_e, from a reported landslide has been approximated by the line log(R_e)=−2.98+0.75M_s for M_s≥5.3, which is compatible with curves proposed world-wide and constitutes a realistic solution at least for hazard assessment purposes. We discuss the importance of the results for assessing hazards from earthquake-induced landslides and for calculating focal parameters of historical earthquakes.     

Crustal motion and deformation in Greece from a decade of GPS measurements, 1993–2003

The Hellenic plate boundary region, located in the collision zone between the Nubian/Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates, is one of the seismo-tectonically most active areas of Europe. During the last 15 years, GPS measurements have been used to determine the crustal motion in the area of Greece with the aim to better understand the geodynamical processes of this region. An extended reoccupation network covering whole Greece has been measured periodically in numerous GPS campaigns since the late eighties, and a continuous GPS network has been operated in the region of the Ionian Sea since 1995. In this paper, we present a new detailed high-quality solution of continuous and campaign-type measurements acquired between 1993 and 2003. During the GPS processing, a special effort was made to obtain consistent results with highest possible accuracies and reliabilities. Data of 54 mainly European IGS and EUREF sites were included in the GPS processing in order to obtain results which are internally consistent with the European kinematic field and order to allow for a regional interpretation. After an overview of the results of the IGS/EUREF sites, the results from more than 80 stations in Greece are presented in terms of velocities, time series, trajectories and strain rates. Previous geodetic, geological and seismological findings are generally confirmed and substantially refined. New important results include the observation of deformation zones to the north and to the south of the North Aegean Trough and in the West Hellenic arc region, arc-parallel extension of about 19 mm/yr along the Hellenic arc, and compression between the Ionian islands and the Greek mainland. Due to continuous long-term observations of 4–8 years, it was possible to extract height changes from the GPS time series. In Greece, we observe a differential subsidence of the order of 2 mm/yr between the northern and central Ionian islands across the Kefalonia fault zone. The differential subsidence of the central Ionian islands with respect to the northwestern Greek mainland amounts to 4 mm/yr.     

A Moore's cellular automaton model to get probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different magnitude releases: A case study for Greece

Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25–50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.     

Earthquake generation in Cyprus revealed by the evolving stress field

Strong earthquake occurrence (M ≥ 6.0) onshore and offshore the Cyprus Island constitutes significant seismic hazard because they occur close to populated areas. Seismicity is weak south of the Island along the Cyprean Arc and strong events are aligned along the Paphos transform fault and Larnaka thrust fault zone that were already known and the Lemessos thrust fault zone that defined in the present study. By combining the past history of strong (M ≥ 6.0) events and the long-term tectonic loading on these major fault zones, the evolution of the stress field from 1896 until the present is derived. Although uncertainties exist in the location, magnitude and fault geometries of the early earthquakes included in our stress evolutionary model, the resulting stress field provides an explanation of later earthquake triggering. It was evidenced that the locations of all the strong events were preceded by a static stress change that encouraged failure. The current state of the evolved stress field may provide evidence for the future seismic hazard. Areas of positive static stress changes were identified in the southwestern offshore area that can be considered as possible sites of future seismic activity.     

Moho topography under central Greece and its compensation by Pn time-terms for the accurate location of hypocenters: The example of the Gulf of Corinth 1995 Aigion earthquake

In this paper we expand over the whole of central Greece, the Moho map centered on the Gulf of Corinth from tomographic inversion of PmP traveltime profile data recorded by several tens of temporary stations. Our approach is based on Pn, Moho refracted waves, from a large regional earthquake recorded by both temporary stations and the permanent Hellenic network. The Moho map shows the large Moho depth under the Hellenides belt. It also highlights the shallower Moho domain towards the Aegean Sea south and east of the Corinth Gulf. The domain of shallow Moho is limited along a NE–SW prolongation ahead of the North Anatolian Fault, from the North Aegean Trough to the western tip of the Gulf of Corinth towards the Gulf of Patras. The Pn time-terms provide corrections for the permanent stations that can be used together with the 1D velocity–depth model for a first-order compensation of lateral heterogeneity and contribute to the accurate and fast location of earthquake hypocenters. As a test we relocated the 1995 Aigion earthquake in this way, using only the sparse data of the permanent stations. Hypocentral coordinates then shift close to those derived by a dedicated dense array deployed after the earthquake, implying improvement of the routine location.     

Reproducibility of overbank sediment sampling in Greece and Norway

Reproducibility of overbank sediment sampling was tested in twenty-nine floodplains in Europe, ten in Greece and nineteen in Norway, by the collection of duplicate pairs of samples. Distances between duplicate sites in Greece were 60 to 100 m, and in Norway 100 to 200 m. In Norway the same nineteen floodplains were sampled by a second team for the purpose of investigating differences in sampling variability and technique. Total element contents were determined in all samples. Paired samples were compared by calculating Spearman's rank correlation coefficient on the raw analytical data, and one-way analysis of variance on the log-transformed data. Pairs of overbank sediment samples collected from different floodplains by the Hellenic team and the first Norwegian team showed high rank correlations and low within-basin variability (sampling and analytical variance). Statistical results of the second Norwegian team were comparatively poorer; both Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and one-way analysis of variance, showed very low positive to negative correlations and high within-basin variation, suggesting a non-uniform distribution of elements in the Norwegian overbank sediment sequences and differences in the sampling technique of the two teams. Nevertheless, careful location of sample sites, as has been done by the Hellenic and the first Norwegian teams, reduces considerably the sampling variability, and the overall sampling reproducibility for most elements is very good for distances up to 100 m in Greece and 200 m in Norway, provided correlated overbank sediment sequences are sampled. The implication of this study for multinational regional geochemical mapping is that overbank sediment sampling must be carried out by well-trained professional teams of exploration geochemists, and where possible by one sampling team for the whole country.     

The April 2007 earthquake swarm near Lake Trichonis and implications for active tectonics in western Greece

We investigate the properties of the April 2007 earthquake swarm (Mw 5.2) which occurred at the vicinity of Lake Trichonis (western Greece). First we relocated the earthquakes, using P- and S-wave arrivals to the stations of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN), and then we applied moment tensor inversion to regional broad-band waveforms to obtain the focal mechanisms of the strongest events of the 2007 swarm. The relocated epicentres, cluster along the eastern banks of the lake, and follow a distinct NNW–ESE trend. The previous strong sequence close to Lake Trichonis occurred in June–December 1975. We applied teleseismic body waveform inversion, to obtain the focal mechanism solution of the strongest earthquake of this sequence, i.e. the 31 December 1975 (Mw 6.0) event. Our results indicate that: a) the 31 December 1975 Mw 6.0 event was produced by a NW–SE normal fault, dipping to the NE, with considerable sinistral strike-slip component; we relocated its epicentre: i) using phase data reported to ISC and its coordinates are 38.486°N, 21.661°E; ii) using the available macroseismic data, and the coordinates of the macroseismic epicentre are 38.49°N, 21.63°E, close to the strongly affected village of Kato Makrinou; b) the earthquakes of the 2007 swarm indicate a NNW–SSE strike for the activated main structure, parallel to the eastern banks of Lake Trichonis, dipping to the NE and characterized by mainly normal faulting, occasionally combined with sinistral strike-slip component. The 2007 earthquake swarm did not rupture the well documented E–W striking Trichonis normal fault that bounds the southern flank of the lake, but on the contrary it is due to rupture of a NW–SE normal fault that strikes at a  45° angle to the Trichonis fault. The left-lateral component of faulting is mapped for the first time to the north of the Gulf of Patras which was previously regarded as the boundary for strike-slip motions in western Greece. This result signifies the importance of further investigations to unravel in detail the tectonics of this region.     

Magnetotellurics and seismotectonics in the analysis of active domains: An essential combination?

The geoelectric structural trends (GST) derived from the spatial analysis (rotation/decomposition) of MT and GDS data in the vicinity of active deformation zones, exhibit remarkable correlation with seismotectonic trends and nodal planes of earthquake mechanism solutions, in practically all the cases we have examined in Greece and abroad. In the upper crust of an active domain, the GST may be explained in terms of conductors formed by water infiltrating through fault planes and related discontinuities, aligned microcracks and anastomosing shear zones. If this interpretation is correct, the GST should be good indicators of the corresponding trends and location of active faulting. In this context, the spatial analysis of geoelectromagnetic data is important in constraining the geometry of active faulting and hence, the modes of deformation. Two characteristic examples are presented and discussed from the island of Milos, Greece, located in the Hellenic Volcanic Arc and experiencing extensional tectonics and the island of Terceira, the Azores, simultaneously experiencing normal and strike-slip faulting.     

Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.     

Geochemistry of coastal sands of Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Nisyros volcanic materials

Coastal sand samples collected from the northern part of Nisyros volcanic island (Dodecanese, Greece) were investigated for first time for their potential in strategic metals and compared with parental rocks of the island which are Quaternary volcanics with alternating lava flows, pyroclastic layers and lava domes and relevant materials located near granitoids of Northern Greece. The PXRD and SEM-EDS study of the sands revealed enhanced content of feldspars, Fe-Mn oxides, magnetite, tourmaline, pyroxenes, ilmenites, along with zircons, apatite and sulfide inclusions. The fresh hydrothermally deposited clayely material collected from the Nisyros caldera crater had a rather different mineralogical composition from the coastal one (alunite, anhydrite, opal-CT, quartz, kaolinite). UCC-normalized spidergrams indicated that the weathering processes contributed to accumulation of heavy minerals (mainly ilmenite), and strategic metals including V (1920 mg/kg) and Nb (245 mg/kg), in the coastal sand. The low REE concentration (ΣREE + Y = 240 mg/kg) could be attributed to the absence of REE-rich minerals. Moreover, the sands exhibit different geochemical patterns compared to the volcanic source rocks of the island, which are especially enriched in Large-Ion Lithophile Elements (LILE) and depleted in High Field Strength Elements (HFSE), such as Nb and Ta. On the other hand, the caldera material is enriched in volatile components, sulfur, chalcophile elements (Se, Bi, Hg, As, Pb) and Ba. Micro-XRF analyses of representative crystals showed that the high Nb content of the sands was associated with the Ti/Fe-rich phases (e.g. ilmenites). The geochemical composition of N Greece sands showed, because of their origin, enrichment not only in HFSE but also in REE.The study of the coastal heavy mineral sands originating from different geological environments of Greece provides information about the association of their mineral components with REE, other elements of economic interest (e.g. Co, Nb, Ta) and natural actinides. In addition, the study of the black sands of Nisyros island could be considered as a characteristic example of those from other parts of Hellenic Volcanic Arc (HVA) and other relevant Mediterranean regions.     

Geodetic and seismological investigation of crustal deformation near Izmir (Western Anatolia)

The Aegean region including western Turkey, mainland Greece, and the Hellenic Arc is the most seismological and geodynamical active domain in the Alpine Himalayan Belt. In this study, we processed 3 years of survey-mode GPS data and present the analysis of a combination of geodetic and seismological data around Izmir, which is the third most populated city in Turkey. The velocities obtained from 15 sites vary between 25 mm/yr and 28 mm/yr relative to the Eurasian plate. The power law exponent of earthquake size distribution (b-value) ranges from 0.8 to 2.8 in the Izmir region between 26.2°E and 27.2°E. The lowest b-value zones are found along Karaburun Fault (b = 0.8) and, between Seferihisar and Tuzla Faults (b = 0.8). A localized stress concentration is expected from numerical models of seismicity along geometrical locked fault patches. Therefore, areas with lowest b-values are considered to be the most likely location for a strong earthquake, a prediction that is confirmed by the 2005 M_w = 5.9 Seferihisar earthquake sequences, with epicentres located to the south of the Karaburun Fault. The north–south extension of the Izmir area is corroborated by extension rates up to 140 nanostrain/yr as obtained from our GPS data. We combined the 3-year GPS velocity field with the published velocity field to determine the strain rate pattern in the area. The spatial distribution of b-value reflects the normal background due to the tectonic framework and is corroborated by the geodetic data. b-Values correlate with strain pattern. This relationship suggests that decrease of b-values signifies accumulating strain.     

Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).     

Clustering of Earthquake Events in the Himalaya - Its Relevance to Regional Tectonic Set-up

The earthquake events of Himalaya of magnitude ≥5.0 from the time window 1905–2000 are statistically analysed. The inter-event time between earthquakes shows Hurst phenomena of temporal clustering which are spatially located in five distinct domains along the Himalayan fold-thrust belt. Out of these, two domains, one around Uttaranchal-Nepal border and the other around Nepal-Sikkim border reveal maximum number of temporal clusters and thus considered as seismically most potential zones of the Himalaya. Both these zones are located at the interface of the orthogonally disposed major tectonic discontinuities of the Peninsular Shield and Himalayan fold-thrust belt. Such zones are geologically most favourable locales for strain accumulation during later-tectonic movement. Statistical analysis points towards a probability of recurrence of seismic events in near future in these two zones. However, validity of such statistical results can be ascertained by detailed geological and geophysical modelling of the terrain.     

Seismic hazard in Greece. II. Ground acceleration

In a previous paper (Makropoulos and Burton, 1985) the seismic hazard in Greece was examined in terms of magnitude recurrence using Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values and concepts of the physical process of strain energy release. The present study extends the seismic hazard methods beyond magnitude to the estimation of expectations of levels of peak ground acceleration exceedance thus allowing for a direct comparison between these two methodologies as well as establishing information relevant to design and planning criteria.The limited number of strong motion records do not permit regional study of attenuation of ground vibration in Greece. An average formula is derived from eight well known formulae which resulted from worldwide studies, this is: a = 2164 e^0.70m (r+20)^−1.80 cm s⁻² where a is peak ground acceleration, m is earthquake magnitude and r is hypocentral distance in kilometres. This formula agrees with the observed values of peak ground acceleration values recorded in Greece.Acceleration seismic hazard is calculated at each of six chosen cities. Values of maximum acceleration with probability 70% of not been exceeded in the next 25, 50, 100, and 200 years are obtained along with corresponding values of velocity and displacement. The same detailed acceleration evaluation is then applied to the whole area of Greece by dividing it into cells of 0.5° lat × 0.5° long, and the results are illustrated through isoacceleration maps.Differences in magnitude and acceleration hazard maps reflect the fact that in acceleration hazard assessment the focal distance from a particular place in an important factor. The cities of Heraklion and Rodhos have the lowest acceleration hazard although the expected earthquakes may have large magnitude. Intermediate depth earthquakes characterise these two cities. Acceleration estimates, unlike magnitude hazard parameters, refer to a particular place and not to an area around it. Hence, even if two places have similar earthquake depth distributions, the hazards may differ significantly because of the different spatial distribution of the foci. This is observed in the case of Athens and Corinth. These cities have almost the same magnitude hazard, but the acceleration hazard is much lower for Athens where the hazard is mainly due to more distant earthquakes.The isoacceleration maps for Greece as a whole also define areas of high seismic hazard. These are the areas around Cephalonia and Leukas Islands in the Ionian Sea and the eastern Sporadhes, Lesbos Islands and Chalkidiki in the Northern Aegean Sea. At the 70% probability level the maximum acceleration is expected to be around 0.2g within the next 50 years. The areas where the maximum acceleration at the 70% probability level is expected to reach a value of 0.3g in the next 200 years are around Cephalonia and Leukas Islands and near the Dardanelles.     

Seismic moment release data in earthquake catalogue: Application of Hurst statistics in delineating temporal clustering and seismic vulnerability

Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mw≥4.3) of seventeen seismic zones (A to Q) belonging to NE-Himalaya, Burmese-Andaman arc and West- Sunda arc are analysed by Hurst analysis, a non-parametric statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series. The moment release in a zone occurs in alternate positive, negative and positive sloping segments forming a wave like pattern with intervening small horizontal segment. The negative sloping segments indicate decelerated moment release pattern or temporal slackening of elastic strain release with high b–value (>0.95). The horizontal segment indicates temporal clustering of moderate magnitude events/seismic moments with moderate b-values (0.8–0.95). The positive segment is characterised by accelerated moment release within a short span of time indicating temporal clustering of larger magnitude earthquakes/seismic moments and exhibit lowest b–value (<0.7). All zones attest moderate to high Hurst K values, range 0.7-0.86. The pattern in Hurst plots, specially a reversal of trend after prolong negative slope is used for earthquake prognostication in the seismic zones. Our analysis shows that most of the zones register a notable reversal of Hurst clustering trend after a prolonged negative slope which is accompanied by a major earthquake near its end. However, South Burma region (Zone-I) and Tripura fold belt and Bangladesh Plain (Zone-K) do not show any moderate or large shock around the end of the negative sloping trend in Hurst plot. Hence, these two zones can be considered more prone to produce moderate to larger earthquakes in future.     

Asperity distribution of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and its relation to subsequent seismicity in the region

The 1964 Alaska earthquake was the second largest seismic events in the 20th century. The aim of this work is the use of surface deformation data to determine asperity and slip distributions on the fault plane of the Alaska earthquake: these distributions are calculated by a Monte Carlo method. To this aim, we decompose the fault plane in a large number of small square asperity units with a side of 25 km; this allows us to obtain plane surfaces with an irregular shape. In the first stage, each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, providing the geometry of the dislocation surface that best reproduces the observed displacements. To this purpose, a large number of slip distributions have been tried by the use of the Monte Carlo method. The slip amplitude is the same for all the asperities and is equal to the average fault slip inferred from the seismic moment. In the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case, we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results confirm the previous finding that the slip distribution of the great Alaska earthquake was essentially made of two dislocation areas with a higher slip, the Prince William Sound and the Kodiak asperities. Analysis of the post-1964 seismicity in the rupture region shows a strong correlation between the larger earthquakes (M_w≥6) and the distribution of locked asperities following the 1964 event, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model. We do not find slip values higher than 25 m for any of the patches, and we determine two separate high-slip zones: one correspondent to the Prince William Sound asperity, and one (18 m slip) to the Kodiak asperity. The slip distribution connected with the 1964 shock appears to be consistent with the following seismicity in the region.     

Seismic sequence near Zakynthos Island,Greece, April 2006: Identification of the activated fault plane

The April 2006 earthquake sequence near Zakynthos (Western Greece) is analysed to identify the fault plane(-s). The sequence (33 events) was relocated to assess physical insight into the hypocenter uncertainty. Moment tensor solution of three major events was performed, simultaneously with the determination of the centroid position. Joint analysis of the hypocenter position, centroid position and nodal planes indicated sub-horizontal fault planes. Moment tensor solutions of 15 smaller events were performed under assumption that the source positions are those of the hypocenters (without seeking centroids). Their focal mechanisms are highly similar and agree with the analysis of the three major events. The preferable seismotectonic interpretation is that the whole sequence activated a single sub-horizontal fault zone at a depth of about 13 km, corresponding to the interplate subduction boundary. Considering that the Ionian Sea is a high-seismicity area, the identification of the seismic fault is significant for the seismic hazard investigation of the region.