Wave model predictions in the Black Sea: Sensitivity to wind fields

This paper evaluates the impact of using different wind field products on the performance of the third generation wave model SWAN in the Black Sea and its capability for predicting both normal and extreme wave conditions during 1996. Wind data were obtained from NCEP CFSR, NASA MERRA, JRA-25, ECMWF Operational, ECMWF ERA40, and ECMWF ERA-Interim. Wave data were obtained in 1996 at three locations in the Black Sea within the NATO TU-WAVES project. The quality of wind fields was assessed by comparing them with satellite data. These wind data were used as forcing fields for the generation of wind waves. Time series of predicted significant wave height (H_mo), mean wave period (T_m02), and mean wave direction (DIR) were compared with observations at three offshore buoys in the Black Sea and its performance was quantified in terms of statistical parameters. In addition, wave model performance in terms of significant wave height was also assessed by comparing them against satellite data.The main scope of this work is the impact of the different available wind field products on the wave hindcast performance. In addition, the sensitivity of wave model forecasts due to variations in spatial and temporal resolutions of the wind field products was investigated. Finally, the impact of using various wind field products on predicting extreme wave events was analyzed by focussing on storm peaks and on an individual storm event in October 1996. The numerical results revealed that the CFSR winds are more suitable in comparison with the others for modelling both normal and extreme events in the Black Sea. The results also show that wave model output is critically sensitive to the choice of the wind field product, such that the quality of the wind fields is reflected in the quality of the wave predictions. A finer wind spatial resolution leads to an improvement of the wave model predictions, while a finer temporal resolution in the wind fields generally does not significantly improve agreement between observed and simulated wave data.     

Study of long-term variability of Black Sea dynamics on the basis of circulation model assimilation of remote measurements

The Black Sea dynamics for two decades (1993–2012) is analyzed. The study is carried out in numerical simulation with the use of a circulation model and assimilation of satellite measurements of free surface elevations and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The Black Sea circulation model has a spatial resolution of 4.8 km and 35 vertical levels, which thicken toward the surface. Arrays of ERA-Interim data are used for simulating the atmospheric forcing. A set of 3D arrays of the Black Sea hydrophysical fields is calculated on a regular grid with a time resolution of 24 h. The results are analyzed and compared with available contact measurements of temperature and salinity. This comparison shows a quite good quality of the resulted hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea.     

Seasonal variations of the Arabian Sea level anomaly fields and circulation

The changes in the field of the Arabian Sea level anomaly and the geostrophic currents are analyzed based on the data of satellite altimetry measurements in 1993–2008 within the framework of the AVISO project. On the intra-annual scale, the current field generally agrees with the circulation schemes published in a number earlier works. Their differences are due to the occurrence of the mesoscale eddies and jet currents revealed by the authors.     

Coccolithophorids in the Black Sea: Their interannual and long-term changes

A five-year study of the interannual changes observed in May–June during the mass reproduction of coccolithophorids was carried out in the northeastern part of the Black Sea. The long-term dynamics were analyzed using the data on the phytoplankton collected during the last 40 years. The fraction of coccolithophorids represents either 20 or 60% of the total biomass of the algae and does not depend on either the previous winter conditions or the nitrogen content and the N: P ratio in the surface water layer. Our studies have revealed the dependency between the phosphate content and the size of the coccolythophorids’ fraction in the total phytoplankton biomass. The long-term population dynamics includes three periods. Until the mideighties, the coccolythophorid fraction in the Black Sea phytoplankton was insignificant (3%). The average biomass was equal to 8 μg/l. In the late eighties, the average biomass increased up to 106 μg/l. Since the midnineties, coccolythophorids often prevail in the number and mass among the other phytoplankton species. The general tendency for the growth of the coccolythophorid fraction in the phytoplankton cenoses coincides with the increase in the phosphate concentration in the near-surface water observed within the last 40 years. This fact corresponds to the experimental results, which demonstrate that the coccolythophorid development during May–June is phosphate-limited.     

Manifestations of the Black Sea undercurrent in the density and hydrostatic pressure fields

Vertical kinematic structure of the geostrophic currents has been found to be correlated to the distribution of seawater density and hydrostatic pressure over depth. The conditions necessary for the existence of the undercurrent have been defined. On this basis, hydrological survey data compiled by the Marine Hydrophysical Institute in the Black Sea have been treated. Examples are given, which support theoretical deductions about the possible existence of the undercurrent beneath the Black Sea rim current. The undercurrent's parameters have been determined, along with the depths of the upper and lower boundaries and the mainstream velocity. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Seasonal fields of tangenital wind stress over the Black Sea

Tangential wind stress fields with a 40×60 spatial step are calculated from the data on atmospheric pressure distribution over the Black Sea over a decade. Their space-time variability is studied. It is shown that maximum values of the tangential wind stress in all seasons are located in the areas southwest of the Crimea and south of the Taman Peninsula. The tangenital wind stress retrieved from wind measurements is compared with the one determined from the atmospheric pressure data.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

Analyzing intraannual variations in the energy characteristics of circulation in the Black Sea

The energy characteristics of circulation in the Black Sea have been numerically analyzed for 2006. The annually and seasonally averaged integral components of the budget of both kinetic and potential energies are considered. It is shown that, over the period under study, wind forcing, buoyancy force, and friction are the main factors determining variations in the mechanical energy of the Black Sea. During the cold months, wind forcing maximally contributes to the kinetic energy. In spring, the contribution made by buoyancy force is dominant. The values of buoyancy force are maximum within the upper quasi-homogeneous layer during the warm season and on horizons, where the waters of the cold intermediate layer are concentrated, during the fall–winter season.     

Statistical structure of the large-scale fields of temperature and salinity in the Black Sea

In order to reconstruct the large-scale temperature and salinity fields by the method of optimal interpolation of the archival data, we compute the correlation functions and analyze the space and time variations of the statistical structure of the fields. On the sea surface, the thermohaline fields are spatially inhomogeneous. Thus, the correlation functions are anisotropic in the region of the northwest shelf and close to isotropic in the inner parts of the sea. The values of correlation length vary from season to season. In the layer of pycnocline, the temperature and salinity fields are anisotropic. In the zonal direction, the correlation length is 2–3 times greater than in the meridional direction. The indicated anisotropy becomes stronger in the winter season and weaker in the summer season as a consequence of the seasonal variability of large-scale circulation. We study the dependence of the error of reconstruction of the fields by the method of optimal interpolation on the form of approximation of the correlation functions with regard for anisotropy. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 51–65, January–February, 2008.     

Short-range forecast of hydrophysical fields in the eastern part of the Black Sea

On the basis of an analysis of the results of modeling and a forecast of the basic hydrophysical fields in the easternmost part of the Black Sea for 2010–2012, the features of annual variability of regional circulating processes in this part of the sea basin are investigated. A forecast of a hydrological mode is made on the basis of the regional forecasting system developed at the Institute of Geophysics at Javakhishvili State University in cooperation with the oceanographic centers of the Black Sea riparian countries within the frame-work of the ARENA and ECOOP EU international scientific and technical projects. The regional system is one of the components of the Black Sea basin-scale Nowcasting/Forecasting System. The analysis of the material cumulated for the registered period shows that the easternmost water area of the Black Sea is a dynamically active zone where there is a continuous formation of different circulating processes considerably distinguished from each other.     

Monsoon-driven biogeochemical processes in the Arabian Sea

Although it is nominally a tropical locale, the semiannual wind reversals associated with the Monsoon system of the Arabian Sea result annually in two distinct periods of elevated biological activity. While in both cases monsoonal forcing drives surface layer nutrient enrichment that supports increased rates of primary productivity, fundamentally different entrainment mechanisms are operating in summer (Southwest) and winter (Northeast) Monsoons. Moreover, the intervening intermonsoon periods, during which the region relaxes toward oligotrophic conditions more typical of tropical environments, provide a stark contrast to the dynamic biogeochemical activity of the monsoons. The resulting spatial and temporal variability is great and provides a significant challenge for ship-based surveys attempting to characterize the physical and biogeochemical environments of the region. This was especially true for expeditions in the pre-satellite era.Here, we present an overview of the dynamical response to seasonal monsoonal forcing and the characteristics of the physical environment that fundamentally drive regional biogeochemical variability. We then review past observations of the biological distributions that provided our initial insights into the pelagic system of the Arabian Sea. These evolved through the 1980s as additional methodologies, in particular the first synoptic ocean color distributions gathered by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner, became available. Through analyses of these observations and the first large-scale physical–biogeochemical modeling attempts, a pre-JGOFS understanding of the Arabian Sea emerged. During the 1990s, the in situ and remotely sensed observational databases were significantly extended by regional JGOFS activities and the onset of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor ocean color measurements. Analyses of these new data and coupled physical–biogeochemical models have already advanced our understanding and have led to either an amplification or revision of the pre-JGOFS paradigms. Our understanding of this complex and variable ocean region is still evolving. Nonetheless, we have a much better understanding of time–space variability of biogeochemical properties in the Arabian Sea and much deeper insights about the physical and biological factors that drive them, as well as a number of challenging new directions to pursue.     

On the long-term variability of normalized radiance of the Black Sea

Basin-wide distributions of normalized spectral radiances averaged over different time periods were plotted based on the estimates of the average radiance for 20 × 20 km squares in 482 digital images of the Black Sea obtained with a SeaWiFS color scanner in 1998–2004. Significant distinctions of the annual average distributions in the amplitude, localization, and configuration of basin-scale inhomogeneities allowed us to consider these distributions as yearly spectral-radiance portraits of the Black Sea that reflect specific features of the annual behavior of the hydrometeorological conditions over the Black Sea region. Seasonal features of the radiance distributions related to the wind field were discovered. Substantial interannual variability in the errors of the standard atmospheric correction algorithm resulting in an underestimation of the shortwave radiances were revealed. It is shown that the river discharge and the stratification of the layer sensed substantially influence the yearly spectral-radiance portraits of the Black Sea.     

Numerical modelling of the seasonal variability of hydrophysical fields in the Black Sea

The results of research into the seasonal variability of hydrothermodynamic characteristics of the Black Sea are presented. These have been obtained using field data on the fields of temperature, salinity, and wind, and by mathematical modelling. The seasonal variability of the current and heat content fields and of the cold intermediate layer and other hydrophysical characteristics is discussed.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Spatial and temporal variability and monitoring of hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea

As part of the Russian-Ukrainian program “The Black Sea as a Simulation Model of the Ocean,” the monitoring of the marine environment is considered using modern measuring systems. On the basis of historical and contemporary observation data, we estimate the spatial and temporal scales of dominant processes in the Black Sea. We describe the main measuring systems used to monitor the structure and variability of the hydrophysical fields. Examples characterizing the specific features of the Black Sea processes are presented.     

About the relationship between acoustic fields and hydrological fields in the area of a mesoscale eddy in the Black Sea

This paper discusses the application of acoustic sounding with the purpose of identifying vortical features in the sea. Analysis of the results of a multidisciplinary acoustic/hydrological experiment conducted in the Black Sea has revealed a stable recurrent correlation between the amplitudinal variance of echo signals, on the one hand, and the peculiarities of water temperature fields, on the other. Given these characteristics, the peripheral and the central areas of a mesoscale eddy essentially differed. This allows us to apply acoustic sounding to identify mesoscale eddies in the sea. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

A spectral model of underwater irradiance in the Black Sea

We develop a semiempirical spectral model of penetrating irradiance taking into account the biooptical characteristics of the Black Sea. The evaluation of the contributions of the principal optically active components to the total absorption of light in the sea shows that, in the short-wave range (400–500 nm), light is mainly absorbed by the dissolved organic matter (41–77%). The contribution of phytoplankton to the total absorption attains its maximum values (26–37%) in the abyssal part of the sea in the period of spring blooming of diatoms. In the coastal waters, the absorption of light by suspended nonalgae particles in summer is almost twice as intense (20–30%) as in the open sea (8–13%). The analysis of the sensitivity of our model shows that the absorption of light by dissolved organic matter is more significant for the estimation of the photosynthetically active radiation in the Black Sea than the concentration of pigments and backscattering of light by suspended particles. The comparison of the results of model computations with the data of measurements of the underwater irradiance reveals high accuracy of the proposed model.     

Efficient identification of ocean thermodynamics in a physical/biogeochemical ocean model with an iterative Importance Sampling method

Efficient identification of parameters in numerical models remains a computationally demanding problem. Here we present an iterative Importance Sampling approach and demonstrate its application to estimating parameters that control the heat uptake efficiency of a physical/biogeochemical ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The algorithm has similarities to a previously-developed ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) method applied to similar problems, but is more flexible and powerful in the case of nonlinear models and non-Gaussian uncertainties. The method is somewhat more computationally demanding than the EnKF but may be preferred in cases where the approximations that the EnKF relies upon are unsound. Our results suggest that the three-dimensional structure of ocean tracer fields may act as a useful constraint on ocean mixing and consequently the heat uptake of the climate system under anthropogenic forcing.     

Numerical analysis of hydrophysical fields on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea

A numerical experiment with assimilation of hydrological observational data from a survey in October 2007 on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea was carried out using the hydrodynamic model with nonlinear equations of motion, equations of heat and salt advection, and data assimilation. The results of this calculation are compared with thermohydrodynamic fields obtained without taking into account temperature and salinity measurements. It is shown that allowance for the observation data leads to qualitative and quantitative differences in the structure of the hydrophysical fields. Mesoscale eddies and intense jet streams that agree with satellite observations were found in the field of currents and were investigated. These eddies are not resolved in low-resolution field experiments.     

Formation of the dome-shaped isosurfaces of physical and chemical characteristics of the Black Sea

On the basis of processing and analysis of the results of many-year observations, we study the process of formation of dome-shaped isosurfaces of hydrological and hydrochemical characteristics for all depths in the Black Sea. We estimate the roles of the intensities of sources and sinks of heat and dissolved substances and the general picture of water circulation, vertical exchange, meso- and small-scale anticyclonic vorticity, and mud and geothermal flows to the preservation of the dome-shaped form of the isosurfaces of these characteristics. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev.     

Estimation of the long-term variability of hydrophysical characteristics of the Black Sea based on the assimilation of the climatic hydrological fields L and altimetry data

To study the long-term variability of the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea, we use three versions of climatic fields, namely, the fields reconstructed in the model according to the old (1903–1982) and new (1903–2003) hydrological climatic data arrays of temperature and salinity and according to the data of satellite altimetry. The analysis of the altimetry-based climatic fields confirms the distinctions (established earlier according to the old and new data arrays) in the seasonal variability of the integral characteristics of temperature and salinity and in the structures of hydrophysical fields in the sea. It is shown that, in the winter-spring season, the thermohaline fields reconstructed according to the new and altimetry data arrays are characterized by a small elevation of the halocline (pycnocline) and the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer. In all seasons, the altimetry-based surface geostrophic currents contain numerous mesoscale eddies with different signs of rotation. Moreover, in all seasons, the Rim Current reconstructed according to the altimetry data is characterized by a narrower jet almost along the entire its length. This jet is especially intense near the coasts of West Anatolia. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 3–17, July–August, 2006.