A hydrological record extension model for reconstructing streamflows from tree‐ring chronologies

Characterizing drought events is an important factor in designing and operating water resource projects, but instrumental hydrologic records are generally short (<100 years). Because estimates of drought statistics can improve when longer records are available, we developed a stochastic model to extend instrumental streamflows based on tree‐ring chronologies. This Record Extension plus Noise (or REXTN) model consists of an autoregressive term to account for the temporal persistence of streamflows, predictor variables with longer records, and a noise term. The noise term was included to avoid underestimating the variability of the flows and to generate multiple extensions, which offer the possibility of quantifying the uncertainty of drought statistics such as the critical drought. For cases where having multiple extensions is not desirable, a statistically based algorithm was developed to select a single extended record. Using a simulation experiment, model REXTN was found to perform better than other existing reconstruction methods. The model was then applied to extend streamflows of the Poudre River, CO, USA, based on tree ring‐chronologies back to the year 1600, and the reconstructions were used to determine drought statistics such as duration and magnitude. When results based on the classical linear regression model were compared with those calculated by model REXTN, the latter was found to better match flow and drought statistics from the instrumental records, as well as to give a broader range of drought duration and magnitude. The REXTN model provides a useful addition to the range of tools available to hydrologists for coping with the uncertainty associated with water resource management under future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 477‐year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River,Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Summer streamflow droughts are becoming more severe in many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, as a result of climate warming. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected. Because the most extreme naturally occurring droughts are rarely captured within short instrumental records water managers likely underestimate, and are unprepared for, worst‐case scenario low flows. To provide a long‐term perspective on recent droughts on Vancouver Island, we developed a 477‐year long dendrohydrological reconstruction of summer streamflow for Tsable River based on a network of annual tree‐ring width data. A novel aspect of our study is the use of conifer trees that are energy limited by spring snowmelt timing. Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability, to our knowledge the reconstruction is the longest of its kind in British Columbia. We demonstrate that targeting the summer streamflow component derived from snowmelt is powerful for determining drought‐season discharge in hybrid runoff regimes, and we suggest that this approach may be applied to small watersheds in temperate environments that are not usually conducive to dendrohydrology. Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent ‘severe’ events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400‐year pre‐instrumental record and should be anticipated within water management strategies. In coming decades, worst‐case scenario natural droughts compounded by land use change and climate change could result in droughts more severe than any since 1520. The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modelled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pervasive,Preferential Flow through Mega-Thick Unsaturated Zones in the Southern Great Basin

Recharge from preferential flow through mega-thick (100–1000 m) unsaturated zones is a pervasive phenomenon, as demonstrated with a case study of volcanic highland recharge areas in the Great Basin province in southern Nevada, USA. Statistically significant rising water-level trends occur for most study-area wells and resulted from a relatively wet period (1969–2005) in south-central Nevada. Wet and dry winters control water-level trends, with water levels rising within a few months to a year following a wet-winter recharge event and declining during sustained dry periods. Even though a megadrought has persisted since 2000, this drought condition did not preclude major recharge events. Modern groundwater reaching the water table is consistent with previous geochemical studies of the study area that indicate mixing of modern and late Pleistocene recharge water. First-order approximations and simple mixing models of modern and late Pleistocene water indicate that 10% to 40% of recharge is preferential flow and that modern recharge may play a larger role in the water budget than previously thought.     

Increasing risk and uncertainty of flooding in the Mississippi River basin

Flooding in the Mississippi basin has become increasingly uncertain, and a succession of progressively higher, peak annual water levels is observed at many sites. Many record levels set in the central USA by the huge 1993 flood have already been superseded. Methodology developed elsewhere that recognizes trends of river stages is used to estimate present‐day flood risk at 27 sites in the Mississippi basin that have >100 years of continuous stage record. Unlike official estimates that are fundamentally based on discharge, this methodology requires only data on river stage. A novel plot linearizes the official flood levels that are indirectly derived from the complex, discharge‐based calculations and demonstrates that the neglect of trends has resulted in the effective use of undersized means and standard deviations in flood risk analysis. A severe consequence is that official “base flood” levels are underestimated by 0.4 to 2 m at many sites in the central USA.     

Evaluating direct and indirect evidence of climatic change by Hölder regularity and order pattern in time series

The several competing reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature variability exists with partly conflicting evidence. Here we considered a specific problem of choosing “the best” reconstruction, in a frame of assumptions, that they are produced by smooth dynamical system as well as instrumental time series. Using some sophisticated measures of similarity, we could not match to all existing hemispheric paleoclimate reconstructions with hypothesis about any deterministic system which can produced its as typical projection of their trajectories. The results cast doubt on the conventional techniques frequently used to reconstruct past climate variability.     

PRINCIPES FONDAMENTAUX DE LA THEORIE DU MOUVEMENT DES EAUX SOUTERRAINES

ABSTRACT

In southeastern Arizona, almost all summer rainfall results from widely-scattered high-intensity afternoon or evening thunderstorms of limited areal extent. For eleven years of record on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Tombstone, Arizona, about 70 percent of the annual rainfall of 11 1/2 inches and over 95 percent of the annual runoff occurred in July, August, and early September. In contrast, about 5 percent of the rainfall occurred in the previous 3 months, and about 25 percent in the remaining 6 1/2 months.

Therefore, summer rainfall, although highly variable, represented the most dependable source of water to the Walnut Gulch watershed. On the average, significant rainfall was recorded on some part of the watershed on 40 percent of the days in the critical July-August period. The maximum frequency was 3 out of every 4 days in 1955, and the minimum 3 out of every 10 days in 1960.

The wettest year was 1955, with a continuous rainy period of 47 days; whereas, the driest was 1960, with the longest rainy period lasting only 5 days. The longest summer drought during the period of record occurred in 1962, when no rain fell for 17 days in August, following a 14-day rainy period in late July.

As yet, there are not enough data to determine reliable expectancies for summer rainy or drought periods.     

Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies Associated with Drought in Southwestern USA from GPS Observations

The Earth’s surface fluid mass redistribution, e.g., groundwater depletion and severe drought, causes the elastic surface deformation, which can be measured by global positioning system (GPS). In this paper, the continuous GPS observations are used to estimate the terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes in southwestern USA, which have a good agreement with TWS changes derived from Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and hydrological models. The seasonal variation is mostly located in the Rocky mountain range and Mississippi river watershed. The largest amplitude of the seasonal variation is between 12 and 15 cm in equivalent water thickness. The timing and duration of TWS anomalies caused by the severe drought in 2012 are observed by the GPS-derived TWS, which are confirmed by the GRACE results. Different hydrological models are further used for comparison with GPS and GRACE results. The magnitude of TWS depletion from GRACE and GPS observations during the drought is larger than that from hydrological models, which indicates that the drought was caused by comparable groundwater and surface water depletion. The interannual TWS changes from GPS are also consistent with the precipitation pattern over the past 6 years, which further confirms the severe drought in 2012. This study demonstrates that continuous GPS observations have the potential as real-time drought indicator.     

Socio-economic drought assessment in Lake Mead,USA, based on a multivariate standardized water-scarcity index

Drought events are increasing worldwide. Socio-economic drought is the least investigated type of drought, and is the only type for which water demand is taken into consideration. In this research, socio-economic drought was studied in Lake Mead, USA, using a multivariate standardized water-scarcity index (MSWSI) over the period 1990–2014, combining two water-scarcity indices based on time series of inflow, outflow, reservoir storage, and water demand. The inflow and outflow were determined from streamgage data, and reservoir storage from lake level data; demand was based on water pumped by the Southern Nevada Water Authority. Missing observations in input streamgage data were filled through regression modeling. The results indicate that Lake Mead has been in socio-economic drought since 2000, with the most severe drought occurring between 2006 and 2012, and the highest intensity drought in April–July 2014. The Lake Mead droughts revealed through the MSWSI are consistent with those reported in US Drought Monitor (USDM) products. The temporal behavior of MSWSI provides an insight into the socio-economic effects of droughts not captured by USDM products.     

The dynamics of farmer migration and resettlement in the Dhidhessa River Basin,Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The Dhidhessa River Basin (DRB), in the Abbay River Basin in Ethiopia, is undergoing large-scale dam construction for sugarcane irrigation. We focused on the dynamics of population migration, settlement, relocation and water resource development in the DRB using primary and secondary data. Two major migration waves were observed in the basin: the first in 1984–1986 during a severe drought and the second during 2005–2017. Most rural migrants were “pulled” by government initiative in the period 1984–2017, while a few migrated of their own accord due to famine. We found that the first migration wave from eastern Ethiopia (Harar) to DRB was due to scarcity of water, land and rainfall and the migration positively affected migrant livelihoods. In the second phase, dam construction displaced settled farmers and migrants, adversely affecting their livelihoods. Analysis is needed that considers the wellbeing of the displaced agrarian society and the migrant population in the dam-affected area.     

21st Anniversary of the Bulletin

Abstract

The drought event which reached severe levels in 1972 and 1973 caused a major disaster in the Sahalian and sub-Sahalian zones in Africa. This disaster has drawn attention to the need for data surveys and detailed studies for meaningful long-term measures to combat the effects of future droughts.

The study reported in this paper is an attempt to assess the hydrological aspects of the drought event in Nigeria in 1972 and 1973. There exist relatively long and reliable records of rainfall within the drought zone, while records for runoff, water level and groundwater are few and far between. Data available are analysed to determine evidence of trend and persistence (short and long-term). An examination of the rainfall records showed that extreme dry years at all the stations tended to recur at about the same time. The time interval between these extreme dry years was about 30 years. It was also observed from the spectral analysis of the records that most of the spectra for all the stations showed a generally high level of variance at low frequency.

The limited information on runoff and groundwater precludes a detailed statistical analysis from being carried out on the annual series of runoff. However, the runoff data at some stations snowed that the magnitude of runoff in the drought year 1972/1973 was about 22–72 per cent of the average value for the length of record available (about eight years). Moreover, the long-term water-level record of Lake Chad revealed a similar trend for the occurrence of extreme dry years to that observed in the rainfall record.     

大气季节内振荡的活动与江淮流域夏季旱涝

观测资料的分析极为清楚地表明,江淮流域的夏季降水有着极为明显的低频变化,周期为30-60d和近20d的振荡是其最基本的特征,尤其是在多雨的年份.对应江淮夏季多雨(涝)年和少雨(旱)年,大气环流的分析表明其大气季节内振荡(IS0)的形势有着显著的差异.例如在多雨(少雨)年,在长江以南的850hPa上为一个低频(IS0)反气旋(气旋)性环流控制,而中国北部和日本一带为气旋(反气旋)性环流,从而在江淮流域形成较强的低频辐合(辐散)气流;在200hPa的青藏高原上却为一个低频气旋(反气旋)性环流所控制.分析还表明,对应多雨年,在江淮流域有明显的由中高讳度向南传播和由低玮度向北传播的大气低频振荡的汇合情况;而对应于少雨年,由中高纬度向南传播的低频系统较不明显,在江淮流域低频系统的汇合也较为不清楚.     

Sources of water used by natural mesquite vegetation in a semi-arid region of northern Mexico

Abstract

Vegetation structure in semi-arid regions of northern Mexico and the southwestern USA has changed dramatically over the last century; shrubs such as mesquite (Prosopis sp.) have expanded into, and have become dominant in, ecosystems that once supported semi-arid grassland. The upper San Pedro River watershed, which extends from northern Sonora (Mexico) to southeastern Arizona (USA), highlights these changes. Between 1973 and 1992, grasslands decreased by 18% and the total area dominated by mesquite increased during the same period by 412%. In the areas where the density of mesquite shrub is medium to high, grass has completely disappeared under the shrub canopy and has been replaced by bare soil. Undoubtedly these cover changes have affected surface—atmosphere interactions by introducing a different partitioning of net available energy into sensible and latent heat flux. At the same time, different root system and root density and plant physiology have introduced a change to the surface water balance, reducing inflitration and increasing runoff. Our study addressed the sources of water used by mesquite (Prosopis velutina) along a natural gradient from an area of high mesquite cover with no herbaceous grass cover, to open savanna with high grass cover and widely spaced mesquite. The presented results from the SALSA 1997 monsoon-season campaign (July—October) show that mesquite shrubs that have access to both ground-water and surface water use surface water when available, potentially competing with grass for surface water and out-competing grass during successive periods of drought when only groundwater is available.     

Shifts in discharge‐concentration relationships as a small catchment recover from severe drought

This paper provides evidence of the recovery of a small, moorland catchment to a severe drought, the most extreme on record in the UK. We present a detailed water quality time series for the post‐drought recovery period, from the first significant storm event at the end of the drought through three very wet months during which time the catchment fully wetted up. High‐frequency observations were obtained using pump water samplers, at 15‐min intervals for storm events and 2 hourly at other times. There are significant shifts in discharge‐concentration response as the catchment wets up; initial behaviour is very different to later storms. Extreme drought may become more common in a warmer world, so it is increasingly important to understand water quality response during and after such episodes, if their impact on water resources and in‐stream ecology is to be better anticipated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of integrated river basin management strategies: A global perspective

In order to achieve the integrated river basin management in the arid and rapid developing region, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) in Northwestern China, one of critical river basins were selected as a representative example, while the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia and the Colorado River Basin (CRB) in the USA were selected for comparative analysis in this paper. Firstly, the comparable characters and hydrological contexts of these three watersheds were introduced in this paper. Then, based on comparative studies on the river basin challenges in terms of the drought, intensive irrigation, and rapid industrialization, the hydrological background of the MDB, the CRB and the HRB was presented. Subsequently, the river management strategies were compared in three aspects: water allocation, water organizations, and water act and scientific projects. Finally, we proposed recommendations for integrated river basin management for the HRB: (1) Water allocation strategies should be based on laws and markets on the whole basin; (2) Public participation should be stressed by the channels between governance organizations and local communities; (3) Scientific research should be integrated into river management to understand the interactions between the human and nature.     

Retrieving Groundwater Depletion and Drought in the Tigris‐Euphrates Basin Between 2003 and 2015

Quantitative estimates of the groundwater depletion and droughts in the Tigris‐Euphrates Basin (TEB) can be useful for sustainably managing its water resources. Here, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are used to infer the monthly changes in the total water storage of the TEB from January 2003 to December 2015. Additionally, the data of altimetry and output from land surface models are used to remove the contributions from lake water changes and other hydrological factors to obtain the total groundwater depletion (TGWD), human‐driven groundwater depletion (HGWD), and climate‐driven groundwater depletion. We conclude that an alarming rate of decrease in the total water storage and the loss of TGWD have an “accelerating” trend, as the trend during 2007 to 2015 was 3.6 times that during 2003 to 2006. Moreover, the HGWD is 116.09 Gt, which accounts for 98% of the TGWD. Finally, the total storage deficit index (TSDI) is derived from the GRACE data to characterize the drought of the TEB. The results show that TSDI agrees well with the actual drought rather than the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and that the TEB has been undergoing a severe drought since September 2007 according to both the TSDI and PDSI. The research in this study provides an effective and unique method for understanding the hydrological processes and sustainable use of water resources in regions or countries with little data, which is essential for more efficient, sustainable, and cross‐boundary cooperative water resource management.     

How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.     

Geochemical quantification of semiarid mountain recharge

Analysis of a typical semiarid mountain system recharge (MSR) setting demonstrates that geochemical tracers help resolve the location, rate, and seasonality of recharge as well as ground water flowpaths and residence times. MSR is defined as the recharge at the mountain front that dominates many semiarid basins plus the often-overlooked recharge through the mountain block that may be a significant ground water resource; thus, geochemical measurements that integrate signals from all flowpaths are advantageous. Ground water fluxes determined from carbon-14 ((14)C) age gradients imply MSR rates between 2 x 10(6) and 9 x 10(6) m(3)/year in the Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona, USA. This estimated range is within an order of magnitude of, but lower than, prior independent estimates. Stable isotopic signatures indicate that MSR has a 65% +/- 25% contribution from winter precipitation and a 35% +/- 25% contribution from summer precipitation. Chloride and stable isotope results confirm that transpiration is the dominant component of evapotranspiration (ET) in the basin with typical loss of more than 90% of precipitation-less runoff to ET. Such geochemical constraints can be used to further refine hydrogeologic models in similar high-elevation relief basins and can provide practical first estimates of MSR rates for basins lacking extensive prior hydrogeologic measurements.     

Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas

Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050.