青藏高原东部地区降水的定量数值预报初探

运用LASGη坐标有限区域数值预报模式对青藏高原东部的川、渝两省市1988年的18次强降水过程进行了不同方式下的定量降水预报的数值模拟,并根据中国气象局制定的有关规定对模拟预报结果进行了评估.该区域地形复杂,天气系统多变,对数值预报模式有较高的要求,LASGη坐标模式以其比较完善的动力框架和物理过程处理方法获得了较好的预报结果,其对小雨、中雨、大雨预报的TS评分可超过主观预报的水平.     

建筑物对城市通风自净能力影响的数值试验

应用城市气候数值模式，分别计算了三栋6层住宅楼和一栋20层住宅楼两类建筑形式影响下的风场，以及在此风场中街道汽车尾气的浓度分布。计算结果表明在总建筑面积基本相同的情况下，高层建筑周围环境的通风自净能力要优于多层建筑。     

A numerical experiment of cyclogenesis and the development of disturbances

A numerical experiment has been carried out to study the mechanism of cyclogenesis and the develop-ment of disturbances. First, an idealized field of temperature and pressure is designed, which is very similar to the actual synoptic situation, consisting of the jet-like zonal circulation with some nonzonal waves superim-posed on it. Prediction is made by using a six-level splitting primitive model with the idealized field as an initial one. The results show that if a disturbance like a frontal zone in the lower troposphere is superim-posed on the zonal circulation, a frontal cyclone will quickly develop and then gradually become an oc-cluded one. Its life cycle is similar to that of the actual frontal cyclone on the synoptic map. However, if there is a disturbance superimposed on the zonal circulation in the middle troposphere, the cyclone with weaker intensity will be slowly formed near the surface. Finally, if the initial disturbance is located at the high-level, a situation like a cut-off low rather than a frontal cyclone will develop.     

气旋形成与扰动发展机理的数值试验

应用六层全隐式原始方程模式,对地面气旋形成与扰动发展的机制进行了数值试验. 首先,构造了接近实际的理想带状温压场和相应的扰动场.试验表明在带状环流上如果在低空加上一个类似锋区的扰动,便会有锋面气旋很快地发展起来,并逐渐趋于锢囚阶段,和实际大气的锋面气旋生命史很相似.但若扰动在对流层中层,则地面气旋形成过程较慢,强度也弱.如果初始扰动位于对流层高层,则地面形成的气旋在结构上和切断低压类似,不像锋面气旋.     

一个描述河陆风变化的数值模式及其数值实验

本文设计了一个包括水平及垂直扩散、牛顿冷却的二维46层非弹性运动方程模式来模拟及研究河陆风的变化。在模式中包括了太阳辐射;地-气系统的长波辐射;地表面、河表面向大气的感热与潜热输送以及地表面向土壤层的热传导等物理过程。 本模式采用分解算法及隐式时间差分方案,计算结果表明,这个模式无论对稳定层结或不稳定层结其计算都是稳定的,且所需计算时间也是很节省的,其计算结果是符合实际的。     

A numerical experiment of the PBL with geostrophic momentum approximation

In this paper, a numerical experiment of the motion in the PBL (planetary boundary layer) is perform-ed with geostrophic momentum approximation, in which a nonlinear eddy transfer coefficient is used. Some results are obtained for the boundary layer winds in cyclone-anticyclone and trough-ridge systems. This treat-ment improves W-B’s work. The effects of geostrophic wind tendency and the advection of the geostrophic wind on the winds in the PBL are also discussed.     

复杂地形下冰雹预报的数值试验研究

根据威宁地区的地形、气候特征，建立三维冰雹云数值模式，对冰雹研究有一定参考价值。     

背风坡流场和浓度场的数值模拟

本文利用数值积分方法求解二维山地地形大气热力-动力学方程组以及扩散方程。模拟了山地背风坡的流场情况.作为应用,模拟了背风坡不同位置上的排放源在不同的大气稳定度条件下浓度场的分布情况,通过浓度场的垂直扩散方差σ_z~2和实测资料的比较表明:本模式能够反映不同地形和不同天气条件下的污染物质输送及扩散状况,因而有可能成为解决复杂地形上污染扩散的实用方法.     

陡峭地形有限区域数值预报模式设计

本文设计了一个考虑陡峭地形的E-网格有限区域数值预报模式。对如何减小由地形坡度带来的计算误差,我们从地形表示方式和差分格式构造两个方面给出了有效的处理方法。并用青藏高原的两个背风气旋实例对模式作了预报检验,同时比较了有、无地形的模拟结果。     

A numerical experiment with wind variations in the planetary boundary layer

Summary The equations of motion applied to the planetary boundary layer are numerically integrated for certain special eddy viscosity distributions. Accelerations are retained, eddy viscosity varied with height and, to a lesser extent, with time. The resulting inertial oscillations, although very limited in generality, show agreement with observations. Not only clockwise but also counterclockwise rotation of the end point of the wind vector can occur in some cases. Some solutions agree and others disagree with the analytical solutions for unbounded eddy viscosity.

---

Zusammenfassung Die auf die planetare Grenzschicht angewandten Bewegungsgleichungen werden für spezielle Verteilungen des Austauschkoeffizienten numerisch integriert. Beschleunigungen werden beibehalten, vertikale, und, in geringerem Maße, zeitliche Variationen des Austauschkoeffizienten angenommen. Die resultierenden Trägheitsschwingungen sind zwar im allgemeinen sehr beschränkt, zeigen jedoch gute Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtungen. In einzelnen Fällen kann eine Drehung des Windvektors nicht nur im Uhrzeigersinn, sondern auch im Gegenuhrzeigersinn auftreten. Einige Lösungen stimmen gut, andere nicht mit den analytischen Lösungen für einen unbegrenzten Austauschkoeffizienten überein.

---

Résumé Les équations du mouvement appliquées à la couche limite planétaire sont intégrées pour des distributions particulières du coefficient d'échange turbulent. On tient compte des accélérations et on admet des variations verticales et, en moindre mesure, temporelles du coefficient d'échange. Les oscillations d'inertie qui en résultent sont, il est vrai, très limitées mais s'accordent bien avec les observations. Dans certains cas une rotation de la résultante du vecteur vent peut apparaître, non seulement dans le sens des aiguilles d'une montre, mais aussi en sens contraire. Quelques solutions concordent avec celles que l'on obtient en admettant un coefficient d'échange illimité, d'autres pas.

---

---

With 5 Figures     

土壤湿度影响中国夏季气候的数值试验

利用"全球土壤湿度计划第2阶段"提供的土壤湿度资料强迫区域气候模式RegCM3,通过数值试验讨论了土壤湿度对东亚夏季气候模拟效果的影响。结果表明,合理考虑土壤湿度的作用,能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季降水和2 m气温的空间分布型及逐日变化的模拟效果;模拟结果与观测的相关分析显示,降水和2 m气温的年际变化都得到了有效改进,这种改进在气温上尤为明显。不过上述改进具有区域依赖性。数值试验结果表明,气温对土壤湿度的敏感性强于降水,这也从一个侧面说明提高降水模拟效果的难度。总体而言,合理的土壤湿度能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季气候的模拟能力。因此,合理描述土壤湿度的变化,是提高中国夏季气候预报技巧的潜在途径之一。     

Synergism of upper-level potential vorticity and mountains in Genoa lee cyclogenesis – A numerical study

Summary The interaction of topography and upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly in intensive case of Alpine lee cyclogenesis (3–6 March 1982) is investigated. The factor separation method is used in conjunction with the PV inversion technique to isolate individual roles of topography and upper-level PV as well as their synergic nonlinear effect. The application of the factor separation method allows to separate low and upper tropospheric dynamics in the real case of lee cyclogenesis and to estimate quantitatively the pure and interactive contributions of topography and upper tropospheric PV anomaly to the pressure deepening in the lee of the Alps. The PV-topography interactive effect was found to be strong and comparable to the pure PV advection contribution. It is shown that the synergic contribution is responsible for the dipole structure oriented exactly as predicted by theory and as found in the observations. The “pure” topography contribution is small during the “trigger” phase but becomes strongly cyclolytic (i.e., assisting cyclone decay) in the second phase of the lee development. Superposition of the pressure change patterns produced by the two factors along with their interaction, results in a strong deepening in the right location. The joint cyclogenetic action is proposed as the explanation for the fast pressure fall during the “trigger” phase. Received July 31, 2000/Revised June 4, 2001     

A numerical experiment study for effects of the grassland desertification on summer drought in North China

1IntroductionDManyobservationsandstudiesindicatethatthesummerrainfallinNorthChinadecreasessignificantlyduringrecenttwentyyears.Theobviousreductiontendencycanbeseenfromthevariationofpercentageofsummerrainfallanomaly(June--August)intheplainofNorthChina...     

Impact of urban land-use change in eastern China on the East Asian subtropical monsoon: A numerical study

The effect of urban land-use change in eastern China on the East Asian subtropical monsoon (EASTM) is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1. Comparison of the results between the urban expansion and reference experiments shows that with the urban expansion, the land surface energy balance alters: surface net radiation and sensible heat fluxes enhance while the latent heat fluxes reduce. As a result, a significant increase in surface air temperature over eastern China is detected. The urban land-use change contributes to a change in the zonal land-sea temperature difference (LSTD), leading to a delay in the time when LSTD changes from positive to negative, and vice versa. Additionally, the onset and retreat dates of the EASTM are also delayed. Meanwhile, the rise in surface air temperature leads to formation of abnormal northerly air flows, which may be the reason for the slower northward movement of the EASTM and a more southward location of its northern boundary.     

The interface effect and the formation of a low-level jet along the east side of the rocky mountains

Based upon the analysis of several different causes for the low-level jet along the east side of the Rocky Moun-tains, the concept of “Interface Effect” is established. The basic mechanism for the formation of the low-level jet in North America has been found to be the compression and divergence, under the driving of ageostrophic winds, of the air columns between two surfaces-the ground and the bottom of inversion-which slope with different patterns in a cross-section normal to the jet stream. As a result, the air parcel is accelerated along the stream-line and the anticyclonic shear of the current increased. Also, the diurnal variation of the jet is determined by the interface effect.     

Identification of forcing mechanisms of convective initiation over mountains through high-resolution numerical simulations

正Convection and its ensuing severe weather,such as heavy rainfall,hail,tornado,and high wind,have significant impacts on our society and economy(e.g.,Cao et al.,2004;Fritsch and Carbone,2004;Verbout et al.,2006;Ashley and Black,2008;Cao,2008;Cao and Ma,2009;Zhang et al.,2014).Due to its localized and transient nature,the initiation of convection or convective initiation remains one of the least     

跨季度汛期气候数值预测试验

利用国家气候中心全球大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0.1开展季节预测,对模式预测与观测值进行相关分析。结果表明:该模式对夏季大尺度环流场、降水及气温等都有一定的跨季度预测能力,但对中国不同区域的要素预测能力有所不同。总体来说,夏季大气环流场的预测效果在海洋上优于陆地上,在低纬优于高纬,在新疆及蒙古也较好。从距平相关系数指标看,气温预测效果在中国西北部分地区较好,降水在中国北方及西南部分地区预测效果较好。由预测效果的年际变化看,在不同年份模式预测效果不同。另外,在不同海温情况下,该模式对不同区域的汛期气候预测效果不同,进而说明春季海温预测的正确性对汛期预测的重要性。     

A numerical world ocean general circulation model: Part II. A baroclinic experiment

A new six-layer world ocean general circulation model based on the primitive system of equations is described in detail and its performance in the case of a homogeneous ocean is described. These test integrations show that the model is capable of reproducing the observed mean barotropic or vertically-integrated transport, as well as the seasonal variability of the major ocean gyres. The surface currents, however, are dominated by the Ekman transport, and such non-linear features as the western boundary currents and the equatorial countercurrents are poorly represented. The abyssal boundary countercurrents are also absent due to the lack of thermohaline forcing. The most conspicuous effect of the bottom topography on a homogeneous ocean is seen in the Southern ocean where the calculated Antarctic circumpolar transport through the Drake passage ( ≈ 10 Sv, with bathymetry included) greatly underestimates the observed transport (≈ 100 Sv).     

The wind-induced shaping and migration of an isolated dune: A numerical experiment

Numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the development and migration of a barchan dune starting with a conical pile of sand. Such an experiment is done in three steps: (1) computation of the steady-state wind field over and around a barchan using the numerical meso-scale simulation model FITNAH, whereby the horizontal variation of the friction velocity is also calculated; (2) computation of the sand transport using the friction velocity in the transport formula by Lettau and Lettau (1978); (3) computation of the erosion and deposition rates as the divergence of the sand transport, where a special treatment is used for the slip-face of the barchan dune. Adding these rates to the height field leads to a different shape of the dune after a time step t _h . Then this procedure has to be repeated for the next time step t _h .The results are in good agreement with observations: the initial pile of sand develops wings (horns) and a slip-face between them. In addition, flow separation over the lee-side can be simulated. Finally, the tendency to form a barchan in equilibrium is considered.