Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NO _x in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO₂ in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NO _x , however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO₂ and NO _x ; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.     

Transient currents in the global electric circuit due to cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning

Intracloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes produce transient changes in the electric field (E) above a thundercloud which drive transient currents in the global electric circuit (GEC). Using in-cloud and above-cloud E data from balloons, ground-based E data, and Lightning Mapping Array data, the above-cloud charge transfers due to lightning transients are estimated for five IC and five CG flashes from four thunderstorms that occurred above the mountains in New Mexico, USA, in 1999. For the five CG flashes (which transferred − 4 to − 13 C to the ground), the transient currents moved + 1 to + 5 C of charge upward from cloudtop toward the ionosphere, with an average transient charge transfer of about 35% of the charge transferred to ground. For the five IC flashes (which neutralized 6 to 21 C inside the cloud), the transient currents moved − 0.7 to − 3 C upward, with an average transient charge transfer of about 12% of the lightning charge. Estimates for three thunderstorms indicate that the transient currents made only a small GEC contribution compared to the quasi-stationary Wilson currents because of the offsetting effects of IC and CG flashes in these storms. However, storms with extreme characteristics, such as high flash rates or predominance of one flash type, may make a significant GEC contribution via lightning transients.     

全球闪电活动与对流层上部NO及O3的相关性分析

为了解闪电对对流层上部微量气体的贡献,利用全球水资源和气候中心(GHRC)提供的1995年4月—2006年6月的闪电卫星格点资料,以及高层大气研究卫星(UARS)上的卤素掩星试验(HALOE)1991年10月—2005年11月的观测资料,分析了全球闪电与对流层上部NO和O3体积分数的时空分布特征及其相关性。结果表明:全球闪电12、1、2月集中在南半球,6—8月集中在北半球,全球闪电的季节分布与NO、O3类似;NO体积分数在350 h Pa附近达到最大,该高度的南半球NO体积分数变化范围为7×10-12~11×10-12、北半球为3×10-12~17×10-12;450~300 h Pa,北半球夏季O3体积分数呈明显增加趋势,且同一高度上夏季的值比年平均值大25%左右,南半球夏季O3体积分数高于冬季,但差异并不大。结论进一步证明了闪电与对流层上部NO及O3的密切关系,也为研究全球气候变化提供有力证据。