A note on the historical industrial production of carbon dioxide

The historical record of CO₂ emissions from industrial activity is reexamined. The overall annual growth rate has been about 3.5% but with wide variations due to economic fluctuations. It is unlikely that the total CO₂ production would have been greatly different had the major wars of the Twentieth Century been avoided.     

A comparison of reversing psychrometric Bowen ratio measurement systems: Research note

Abstract

Bowen ratio measurement systems that use a rotating apparatus for periodically reversing the psychrometers to remove systematic errors are compared in the laboratory and above a Douglas‐fir stand. The effect of some non‐cancelling errors on the measurement of the Bowen ratio and forest evapotranspiration is illustrated, and an improved apparatus and psychrometer are described.     

Impact of climatic change on the biological production in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is a high latitude ecosystem and is an important nursery and feeding area for commercial fish stocks such as cod, capelin and herring. There is a large inter-annual variability both in physical and biological conditions in the Barents Sea. Understanding and predicting changes in the system requires insight into the coupled nature of the physical and biological interactions. A coupled physical and biological ocean model is used to study the impact of postulated future atmospheric changes on the physical and biological conditions in the Barents Sea. Results from this simulation not only show that there is a large variability in the physical conditions on a wide range of time scales, but also that the temperature in the Barents Sea is increasing. The corresponding ice cover decrease is most noticeable in the summer months. The changes in physical properties will most likely have an impact on the biotope. On average, the primary production increases slightly over a 65 year long period, about 8%, partly due to an increased production in the northern Barents Sea. The model further simulates that the production of Atlantic zooplankton species increases approximately 20% and becomes more abundant in the east. The Arctic zooplankton biomass decreases significantly (50%) causing the total simulated production to decrease.     

A note on the effects of virtual temperature: Research note

Abstract

The effects of virtual temperature on parcel buoyancy are investigated and the following results obtained. For descent or unsaturated ascent, the buoyancy acceleration is enhanced if the mixing ratio increases with pressure. However, for saturated ascent, the buoyancy acceleration is inhibited unless the lapse rate of mixing ratio exceeds a value slightly greater than that along a moist adiabat. This criterion is evaluated for several mean soundings. For the case of Oklahoma supercells, the mixing ratio lapse rate is clearly large enough. However, for other cases it often is not. Horizontal gradients in water vapour and condensed water can have a significant influence on the thermal wind.     

A note on the comparison of theoretical and empirical quantiles for monthly rainfall totals: Research note

Abstract

For a moderately large number of years of observations the quantiles of rainfall totals for individual months can be estimated from ranked values. With only a few years of observations it is necessary to estimate the quantiles from a distribution fitted to the data for all months.

The Compound‐Poisson distribution can utilise the information available in rainfall totals for all months to give reasonably precise parameter estimates for individual months. Representative parameters can be obtained from as few as 10 years of data. Quantiles are calculated from, and statistically qualified by, the estimated mean and covariance structure of the fitted parameters.     

A note on the interpretation of acoustic sounder returns

A method is outlined for estimating statistical characteristics of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer using pairs of observables derived from scattered acoustic energy. The procedure involves determining, from the observable pair, a local stability parameter and deducing from related similarity functions certain turbulence statistics not measured directly. The results are limited to heights small compared to the Ekman-layer depth and to flows which are neither fully developed convectively nor have imbedded gravity waves.     

A note on the dynamics of the quasi-stationary Kunming front

Summary The quasi-stationary Kunming front is oriented parallel to the north-south running major mountain chains of south-western China and normal to the upper-level westerlies. The front curves towards the east off the mountain. We hypothesize that the shape of the Kunming front is due to ageostrophic flow along the mountains which is induced by westerly flow in the cold air and at upper levels. Eventually the front must become stagnant. This conjecture is supported by numerical experiments with simple models.With 7 Figures     

Long-Term Variability of Volume and Heat Transport in the Nordic Seas: A Model Study

This article presents results from a model study of interannual and decadal variability in the Nordic Seas. Fifty years of simulations were conducted in an initial condition ensemble mode forced with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. We studied two major events in the interannual and interdecadal variability of the Nordic Seas during the past fifty years: the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1960s and early 1970s and the warming of the Arctic and subarctic oceans in the late 1990s.

Previous studies demonstrated that the Great Salinity Anomaly observed in the subarctic ocean in 1960 was originally generated by intensified sea-ice and freshwater inflow from the Arctic Ocean. Our model results demonstrate that the increase in the transport of fresh and cold waters through Fram Strait in the 1960s was concurrent with a reduction in the meridional water exchange over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The resulting imbalance in salinity and heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge also contributed to the freshening of the water masses of the Nordic Seas and intensified the Great Salinity Anomaly in the Nordic Seas.

The warming of the Atlantic Waters in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean during the past two decades had an important impact on the variability of these two ocean basins. Some previous observational and model studies demonstrated that the warming of the subpolar Atlantic Ocean in the late 1990s and the meridional transport of the Atlantic Water mass (AW) into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean contributed to this process. At the same time, observations show that the warming of the AW in the Nordic Seas started in the 1980s (i.e., earlier than the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Our model results suggest that this process was triggered by an imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through Fram Strait and over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. In the late 1980s the AW transport over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge was stronger than normal while the exchange through Fram Strait was close to normal. The related imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge warmed the Nordic Seas and caused an increase in the temperature of the AW inflow to the Arctic Ocean in the late 1980s (i.e., about a decade earlier than the warming of the source of the AW in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Thus the model results suggest that the imbalance in lateral heat and salinity fluxes through the strait and over the ridge connecting the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans could amplify the interannual variability in the subarctic ocean.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les résultats d'une étude par modèle de la variabilité interannuelle et décennale dans les mers nordiques. Nous avons effectué des simulations sur une période de cinquante ans en mode d'ensemble de conditions initiales forcé avec les réanalyses des NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Nous avons étudié deux événements majeurs survenus dans la variabilité interannuelle et décennale des mers nordiques au cours des cinquante dernières années : la grande anomalie de salinité des années 1960 et du début des années 1970 et le réchauffement des océans Arctique et subarctique vers la fin des années 1990.

Des études précédentes ont démontrées que la grande anomalie de salinité observée dans l'océan subarctique en 1960 a été causée par une intensification de l'apport de glace de mer et d'eau douce depuis l'océan Arctique. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus du modèle montrent que l'accroissement du transport d'eau douce et froide à travers le détroit de Fram dans les années 1960 s'est produit en même temps qu'une réduction dans l’échange méridien d'eau au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de salinité et de chaleur à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a aussi contribué à l'adoucissement des masses d'eau des mers nordiques et a intensifié la grande anomalie de salinité dans les mers nordiques.

Le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique au cours des deux dernières décennies a eu un impact important sur la variabilité de ces deux bassins océaniques. Des études observationnelles et par modèle précédentes ont établi que le réchauffement de l'océan Atlantique subpolaire dans les années 1990 et le transport méridien de la masse d'eau atlantique dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique ont contribué à ce processus. En même temps, les observations montrent que le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques a commencé dans les années 1980 (c.–à–d. plus tôt que le réchauffement de l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Les résultats du modèle suggèrent que ce processus a été déclenché par un déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit de Fram et au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. À la fin des années 1980, le transport des eaux atlantiques au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse était plus fort que la normale alors que l’échange à travers le détroit de Fram était près de la normale. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a réchauffé les mers nordiques et causé une augmentation de la température des eaux atlantiques parvenant à l'océan Arctique à la fin des années 1980 (c.-à-d. environ une décennie avant le réchauffement de la source d'eaux atlantiques dans l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Donc, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que le déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur et de salinité latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête reliant les mers nordiques à l'Atlantique Nord et à l'Arctique pourrait amplifier la variabilité interannuelle dans l'océan subarctique.     

Modeling of fast ice evolution in the Arctic seas

A one-dimensional model of fast ice wind-induced break-up developed before was adapted for two-dimensional case that enabled to explain many regularities of this phenomenon. A numerical scheme is proposed of the integration of the acting stresses and potential resistivity by the fast ice area as well as the method for taking into account the correlation between the wind direction and prevailing coastline orientation that enables to simulate practically any combination of tensile and shearing stresses in the basins of arbitrary shape. The seasonal variability of strengthening ice properties is taken into account. All numerical tests carried out within the frameworks of this investigation demonstrated the qualitative and, partly, quantitative similarity of computation results and regularities observed in nature. The model sensitivity to the variation of some parameters is studied. The limits of model applicability are discussed and the directions of further research are proposed.     

Estimates of tropical cyclone effects on the upper layer in the seas of Japan and Okhotsk

On the basis of climate and reanalysis data, a contribution is estimated of tropical cyclones (TCs) to the fluxes of heat, moisture, momentum, and mechanical energy of wind over the seas of Japan and Okhotsk. The estimates are obtained for two TCs that passed over these areas. It is shown that when TCs move over both seas, the heat and moisture exchange between the sea surface and the atmosphere increases approximately by a factor of 3. Also, a significant dynamic effect of tropical cyclones on the upper ocean layer is noted, so that the flux of mechanical wind energy exceeds the background monthly mean values by a factor of 10 or more. On the example for the Far East seas, a well-pronounced dependence of disturbances in the upper ocean on intensity, size, and dynamics of the cyclone is shown.     

A note on surface layer parameterizations in the weather research and forecast model

Two surface layer parameterization schemes along with five planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) are analyzed in order to evaluate the performance of the WRF model in simulating the surface variables and turbulent fluxes over an Indian sub-continent region. These surface layer schemes are based on the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University—National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) parameterization; (a) Old MM5 scheme having Businger-Dyer similarity functions and (b) revised MM5 scheme utilizing the functions that are valid for full ranges of atmospheric stabilities. The study suggests that each PBL scheme can reproduce the diurnal variation of 2 m temperature, momentum flux and sensible heat flux irrespective of the surface layer scheme used for the simulations. However, a comparison of model-simulated values of surface variables and turbulent fluxes with observed values suggests that each PBL scheme is found to systematically over-estimate the nocturnal 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed with both the revised and old schemes during stable conditions.     

A note on the overall vorticity balance in wind-driven ocean circulation

Some constraints resulting from a required overall vorticity balance in an ocean forced by a net wind-stress curl are considered. It is pointed out that the Sverdrup balance holds for Ekman-geostrophic flow in an area-averaged sense even in the presence of topography. It is suggested that nonlinear stretching and twisting of vorticity in an inertial boundary current may provide a source of vorticity which may balance a net wind-stress curl, without help of frictional effects at the bottom or sides. It is also suggested that potential vorticity generated by the wind-stress curl can be balanced by other local potential vorticity sources in the top layer. At this stage no proof for the need of bottom or side friction in a generally stratified ocean exists, and a counterexample is also lacking, leaving the question open for further studies.