Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

Forecasting rupture dimension using the pattern informatics technique

The Pattern Informatics (PI) technique [Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B., McGinnis, S., Gross, S., Klein, W., 2002. Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems, Europhys. Lett., 60, 481–487] is founded on the premise that changes in the seismicity rate are a proxy for changes in the underlying stress. This new approach to the study of seismicity quantifies its local and regional space–time patterns and identifies regions of local quiescence or activation. Here we use a modification of the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes in California in an attempt to objectively quantify the rupture zones of these upcoming events. We show that this method can be used to forecast the size and magnitude of future earthquakes.     

Net earthquake hazard and elements at risk (NEaR) map creation for city of Istanbul via spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

The creation of earthquake hazard maps requires various datasets with selected attenuation relations. Based on the selected attenuation relation, the calculation time varies from half an hour to a couple of days. The length of time needed to create an earthquake hazard map also depends on the resolution of the resulting map. The time gets longer as the resolution of the resulting earthquake hazard map gets higher. The basic form of an attenuation relation requires complex calculation algorithms including geospatial information related to the region of interest. Nowadays, next-generation attenuation (NGA) models are introduced to generate more realistic earthquake hazard maps. However, the more complex the attenuation relation is, the longer time will be required to create a hazard map. This paper offers a new method to create high-resolution earthquake hazard maps, faster than using traditional attenuation relation methods, by using an analytic hierarchy process of spatial multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information systems. This method has been generated and tested for the city of Istanbul. The resulting maps are compared with the earthquake hazard maps created for the city of Istanbul by using the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (in Boore–Atkinson NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectral ground motion parameters (trans: Engineering Co, University of California B). Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 2007). A second output of this paper is a map of the elements at risk (EaR) for the population and buildings of Istanbul, and the introduction of a new approach of net elements at risk (NEaR).     

Slip-weakening and interactive dynamics of an heterogeneous seismic source

A theoretical 3D model of a fault region includes a slip-dependent friction, tectonic loading from the sides, and deterministic, continuous time formulation of governing equations. The model reproduces such properties of real faults as earthquake nucleation, earthquake complex rupture and nonregular recurrence. In particular, it is observed that the style of faulting changes from one event to another. Since all parameters related to the constitutive law are fixed during computer simulations, it is concluded that interactions between fault segments are responsible for such behavior. Neither the constitutive law nor fault spatial heterogeneities solely create complexity; rather it is the whole interactive dynamics of the system that determines the character of its evolution. Results are illustrated by time variations of global (i.e., related to the state of the whole fault) functions, such as energy release rate, seismic moment release rate, tectonic stresses, and local characteristics, such as driving and cohesive stresses, slip rates, slip displacements and mutual relations between them.     

青海格尔木-五道梁地区现今地应力测量结果及其构造分析

本文给出了格尔木一五道梁地区近年地应力测量的结果，并据此进行了构造分析。实测结果表明：最大主应力的方向总体上与区域构造应力场的方向基本一致，呈NE向，局部地区主应力的方向受局部断裂的影响而不同于区域应力场的方向。在地震前后，主应力的大小和方向均发生变化。在震后，昆仑山断裂带附近地应力数值降低约三分之二。     

Reexamining the Seismological Implications of the Present-day Stress State of the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault after the Wenchuan Earthquake

The present-day stress state of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake was re-estimated using measured in-situ stress data obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results reveal that the gradient coefficients of principal stresses versus depth decrease from south to north along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, revealing that the stress level decreases from south to north. The consistency between the present-day stress levels and surface ruptures generated during the earthquake indicates that the accumulated tectonic stress beneath the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault before the Wenchuan earthquake was relieved in form of surface ruptures. This resulted in the stress remaining high in the southern section of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault but relatively low in the northern section. Abnormal high pore pressure conditions and an extremely low frictional coefficient play important role in the interpretation of the stress field adjustment and seismic events observed after the Wenchuan earthquake along this fault, according to the estimation results using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory incorporating frictional coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 1.0. To accurately estimate the seismological hazard of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault by analyzing fault instability using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory, much attention should be focused on the pore pressure conditions and the evolution state of the frictional coefficient under the present-day stress state.     

汶川地震前后龙门山地区区域构造应力场演化的数值模拟

以龙门山地区为研究对象,采用数值模拟方法,通过模拟强震发生前后以及发生时的构造应力场特征,得到了龙门山地区构造应力场变化规律。结果表明,龙门山地区在汶川地震到地震时到地震后的最大主应力和剪应力的数值和方向均发生了改变,最大主应力方向整体上由NEE变为SEE,但在不同地区这种变化表现有所差异。剪应力在震前和震时均有局部区域出现了集中,特别是在映秀附近; 但在地震后,区域内剪应力相对均匀分布,而且与地震前相比,剪应力在龙门山前山断裂和龙门山中央断裂分布的值明显减小,在后山断裂附近分布的剪应力数值增大。同时地震后剪应力在龙门山中央断裂上集中的区域逐渐向东北方向移动。应力场变化规律与地震时的地表形变规律和震后余震的分布规律一致。     

Direct forecasting of reservoir performance using production data without history matching

The conventional paradigm for predicting future reservoir performance from existing production data involves the construction of reservoir models that match the historical data through iterative history matching. This is generally an expensive and difficult task and often results in models that do not accurately assess the uncertainty of the forecast. We propose an alternative re-formulation of the problem, in which the role of the reservoir model is reconsidered. Instead of using the model to match the historical production, and then forecasting, the model is used in combination with Monte Carlo sampling to establish a statistical relationship between the historical and forecast variables. The estimated relationship is then used in conjunction with the actual production data to produce a statistical forecast. This allows quantifying posterior uncertainty on the forecast variable without explicit inversion or history matching. The main rationale behind this is that the reservoir model is highly complex and even so, still remains a simplified representation of the actual subsurface. As statistical relationships can generally only be constructed in low dimensions, compression and dimension reduction of the reservoir models themselves would result in further oversimplification. Conversely, production data and forecast variables are time series data, which are simpler and much more applicable for dimension reduction techniques. We present a dimension reduction approach based on functional data analysis (FDA), and mixed principal component analysis (mixed PCA), followed by canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to maximize the linear correlation between the forecast and production variables. Using these transformed variables, it is then possible to apply linear Gaussian regression and estimate the statistical relationship between the forecast and historical variables. This relationship is used in combination with the actual observed historical data to estimate the posterior distribution of the forecast variable. Sampling from this posterior and reconstructing the corresponding forecast time series, allows assessing uncertainty on the forecast. This workflow will be demonstrated on a case based on a Libyan reservoir and compared with traditional history matching.     

Premonitory seismicity changes prior to the Parkfield and Coalinga earthquakes in southern California

In this work, we apply the Pattern Informatics technique for evaluating one surface expression of the underlying stress field, the seismicity, in order to study the Parkfield–Coalinga interaction over the years preceding the 1983 Coalinga earthquake. We find that significant anomalous seismicity changes occur during the mid-1970s in this region prior to the Coalinga earthquake that illustrate a reduction in the probability of an event at Parkfield, while the probability of an event at Coalinga is seen to increase. This suggests that the one event did not trigger or hinder the other, rather that the dynamics of the earthquake system are a function of stress field changes on a larger spatial and temporal scale.     

Tectonic Stress State Changes Before and After the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Crustal tectonic activities are essentially the consequences of the accumulation and release of in situ stress. Therefore, studying the stress state near active faults is important for understanding crustal dynamics and earthquake occurrences. In this paper, using in situ stress measurement results obtained by hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake and finite element modeling, the variation of stress state before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is investigated. The results show that the shear stress, which is proportional to the difference between principal stresses, increases with depth and distance from the active fault in the calm period or after the earthquakes, and tends to approach to the regional stress level outside the zone influenced by the fault. This distribution appears to gradually reverse with time and the change of fault properties such as frictional strength. With an increase in friction coefficient, low stress areas are reduced and areas with increased stress accumulation are more obvious near the fault. In sections of the fault with high frictional strengths, in situ stress clearly increases in the fault. Stress accumulates more rapidly in the fault zone relative to the surrounding areas, eventually leading to a stress field that peaks at the fault zone. Such a reversal in the stress field between the fault zone and surrounding areas in the magnitude of the stress field is a potential indicator for the occurrence of strong earthquakes.     

Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

资源潜力评价中典型矿床与区域矿产编图思路讨论

根据新一轮全国矿产资源潜力评价工作需要,首先按矿产预测类型选择典型矿床编制典型矿床成矿要素图-典型矿床预测要素图-典型矿床成矿模式图和预测模型图,然后再按预测研究工作区范围编制区域地质建造构造矿产图-区域成矿要素图-区域预测要素图-区域成矿模式图和预测模型图。讨论了有关图件的编制思路,并提出了图中突出显示成矿要素和预测要素的方法。     

Spatial distribution, source identification and affecting factors of heavy metals contamination in urban–suburban soils of Lishui city, China

An investigation on spatial distribution, possible pollution sources, and affecting factors of heavy metals in the urban–suburban soils of Lishui city (China) was conducted using geographic information system (GIS) technique and multivariate statistics. The results indicated that the topsoils in urban and suburban areas were enriched with metals, such as Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Spatial distribution maps of heavy metal contents, based on geostatistical analysis and GIS mapping, indicated that Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn had similar patterns of spatial distribution. Their hot-spot areas were mainly concentrated in the densely populated old urban area of the city. Multivariate statistical analysis (correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and clustering analysis) showed distinctly different associations among the studied metals, suggesting that Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Cd, and Zn had anthropogenic sources, whereas Co and V were associated with parent materials and therefore had natural sources. The Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn contents were positively correlated with soil organic matter, pH, and sand content (p < 0.01). It is concluded that GIS and multivariate statistical methods can be used to identify hot-spot areas and potential sources of heavy metals, and assess soil environment quality in urban–suburban areas.     

南北地震带南段水文地球化学特征及其与地震的关系

本文概述了南北地震带南段的水文地质条件和水文地球化学特征,并编绘了B、F、Li、Sr等微量元素的异常图,分析了水文地球化学与地震的关系。认为(1)构造对地震、地下热水和微量元素的高值区均具有控制作用,它们在空间分布上具有较明显的一致性;(2)高中温热水区(尤其是高中温热泉密集带),常常是地震活动的强烈区,但强震区不一定有高中温热泉密集;(3)在地震孕育过程中,温泉和热水井中的水温、流量和水化学成分均可发生变化。温泉热水中的水化学成分,特别是微量元素变化是地震预报的前兆信息之一。      

Multifractal Distribution of Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors from 2D Multiplicative Cascade Multifractal Fields

Two-dimensional fields (maps) generated by isotropic and anisotropic multiplicative cascade multifractal processes are common in many fields including oceans, atmosphere, the climate and solid earth geophysics. Modeling the anisotropic scaling property and heterogeneity of these types of fields are essential for understanding the underlying processes. The paper explicitly derives the eigenvalues and eigenvectors from these types of fields and proves that the eigenvalues and eigenvectors are described by non-conservative multifractal distributions. This results in a new multifractal model implemented in eigen domain to characterize 2D fields not only with respect to overall heterogeneity and singularity as characterized by the ordinary multifractal model applied to the field itself, but also with respect to orientational heterogeneity of the field. It may also result in a new way to characterize the distribution of extreme large eigenvalues involved in other studies such as principal component analysis. A newly defined operator and its properties as derived in this paper may be useful for studying other types of multifractal cascade processes.     

基于GIS评价活动断裂对公路的影响——以宁夏地区为例

为了查清活动断裂对公路的影响,总结了宁夏地区9条全新世活动断裂的基本特征和活动性,确定了评价和预测活动断裂对公路工程影响的指标体系,并建立了分级标准。采用优先排序法对指标进行筛选和优化,运用主成分分析法确定权重,选用多级模糊综合评判法建立了评价模型。以ARCGIS9为平台,建立了宁夏地区活动断裂空间数据库,运用矢量叠加运算实现了宁夏地区活动断裂对公路影响的现状评价,运用栅格叠加运算实现了宁夏地区海原活动断裂带对公路影响的预测评价。预测结果表明,宁夏地区对公路影响大的海原活动断裂面积为12．34km2,占全区总面积的1．0％;影响较大的为271．28km2,占总面积的21．4％;影响中等的为400．05km2,占总面积的31．6％;影响小的为585．04km2,占总面积的46．0％。     

Tectonic stress field in the epicentral zone of the Latur earthquake of 1993

In situ stress measurements by hydraulic fracturing were carried out in the 617 m deep borehole specially drilled in the epicentral zone of the 1993 Latur earthquake for the purpose of research. The stress measurements carried out at 592 m depth in this borehole are the deepest of all such measurements made so far in the Indian shield. The maximum and minimum principal horizontal stresses (S _H max andS _h min) have been derived from the hydrofracture data using the classical method. TheS _{H max} andS _h min are found to be 16.5 and 9.6 MPa at 373 m depth, and 25.0 and 14.1 MPa at 592 m depth, indicating that the vertical gradients ofS _hmax andS _hmin in the epicentral zone are 39 MPa/km and 21 MPa/km respectively. The principal horizontal stresses in the epicentral zone are comparable with those at Hyderabad and 30% higher than in most other comparable intra-continental regions. Analysis of the results indicate that the stresses in the focal region of the 1993 Latur earthquake have not undergone any significant change following its occurrence and this is in agreement with a similar inference drawn from the seismic data analysis. It appears that the Latur earthquake was caused due to rupturing of the overpressured fault segment at the base of the seismogenic zone.     

灰色系统理论在东北地震活跃期预测研究中的应用

运用灰色系统理论,对东北地区下一个地震活跃期开始时间以及活跃期内可能发生的最大地震的震级进行预测。分别取两个地震活跃期之间的时间间隔和每一活跃期内的最大地震的震级为原始数据列,用五步建模法建立灰色GM(1,1)模型。 用所建模型进行预测,得到东北地区下一个地震活跃期约于1997年开始,活跃期内可能发生的最大地震为7.2级。文中对预测结果的多解性进行了探讨。     

基于GPS速度场的四川地区1999～2018年应变场特征演化分析

基于1999～2018年GPS水平运动速度场数据,解算并分析了四川“Y”形构造区各周期网格速度场、地壳应变率场,并讨论了近20年尺度的地壳应变场演化过程。研究表明：1）2008年汶川地震前1999～2007期GPS速度场相对稳定,整体“Y”型构造区地壳运动变化不大,但汶川地震后龙门山断裂带发生较大变化,由4.0 mm/a增至10.0 mm/a。2）1999～2007年,整个四川“Y”型构造区应变场演化特征微弱,而汶川地震之后的两个周期,最大剪应变自龙门山山前断裂向西到汶川一带,形成了由高到低、平行于龙门山断裂带走向的高密度梯度带。龙门山断裂带以ES或EES向的主压应变为主,其量值变化范围为 5.0×10^-8 /a～12.0×10^-8 /a;鲜水河断裂由震前主拉应变,改为震后近EW向的主压应变特征。面膨胀结果则显示龙门山断裂带由震前低密度梯度带瞬间变为平行于龙门山断裂带走向的高密度变化区。3）2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震是最为重要的时刻分割点。近20年的应变率场变化,更似一个“时间—地壳构造运动”的大轮回,目前四川“Y”型构造区整体处于2008年汶川地震前较为稳定的活动周期。龙门山断裂带仍值得我们做出更为深入的研究。