宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄采收期降水客观预测方法研究

利用1972—2016年宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄种植区气象资料及全球大气环流及海冰、海温资料,开展酿酒葡萄采收期降水及降水过程预测研究,并采用距平符号一致率对预测结果进行评估。结果表明:利用200 h Pa位势高度场、海温、海冰等预测因子建立的宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄采收期降水预测模型距平符号一致率为67%,尤其降水空间分布一致偏多或偏少年份距平符号一致率达86%以上。进一步建立候尺度降水过程预测模型,其降水过程预测准确率为54. 2%,空报率为32. 3%,漏报率为13. 5%。     

DERF产品在江西汛期降水预测中的释用

利用T63月动力延伸预报DERF模式输出的北半球500hPa位势高度场资料和江西省83站逐月降水量实况资料,运用EOF迭代方法对江西省2005-2009年汛期4-6月逐月降水距平百分率进行解释应用预测试验.结果表明,预测模型对江西汛期降水趋势预测的评估效果比较好.月降水距平百分率的预测Ps评分总体平均为72%,平均距平...     

贵州省近50a降水变化分析

应用EOF方法对贵州省46个气象观测站47a(1961-01-2007-12)的月、季降水量距平场的时空分布变化进行统计分析,结果表明:贵州省降水量场的空间分布主要以全省一致型为主;冬季降水量场的空间分布具有大尺度特征;夏季降水量场空间分布的年际变化比冬季大.夏季降水量场空间分布变化的显著周期为10a左右,冬季降水量场空间分布变化的显著周期为3a,而春季和秋季降水量场空间分布则无显著周期存在.     

月平均气温集成预测方法研究

为了有效综合各种预测方法的预测结果,以陕西3个气候区域1999年7月至2010年6月月平均气温的集成预测为例,利用3种预测方法和国家气候中心业务产品月平均气温预测结果历史评分建立二类6种动态客观集成预测方法进行对比研究,结果表明：（1）各种集成预测方法年评分平均值均高于参加集成的任何一个成员,6种集成预测方法评分平均值比4个成员评分平均值高4.6,比同期陕西发布的业务产品高5.1;各种集成预测方法预测与实况距平符号一致率至少高于其中3个成员,6种集成预测方法预测与实况距平符号一致率平均值比4个成员平均值高4.7%,比陕西业务产品高5.1%。（2）3个气候区域中,榆林集成预测效果最好。6种集成预测方法评分平均值比4个成员评分平均值高5.7,比陕西业务产品高5.7;预测与实况距平符号一致率比4个成员高6.9%,比陕西业务产品高7.3%。（3）第二类集成预测方法预测技巧高于第一类,全年评分平均值高0.5,预测与实况距平符号一致率高0.7%。其中Z_（23）全年评分平均值比4个成员评分平均值高5.1,比陕西业务产品高5.7,预测与实况距平符号一致率比4个成员高6.0%,比陕西业务产品高7.6%,推荐首先选择使用。     

基于BCC第二代短期气候预测模式系统的中国夏季降水季节预测评估

利用BCC第二代气候预测模式系统1996-2015年提前1～3个月的回报试验结果,评估了模式在季节尺度上预测中国夏季降水空间分布和降水异常的能力,分析了模式预报效果的年际差异,并探讨了模式预测误差产生的可能原因。结果表明,模式对中国夏季降水的季节预测具有一定的技巧,西南至长江中下游南部、黄淮平原西部、东北北部及藏北高原等地区季节预测技巧较高,同时,模式对降水距平预报效果整体较好,其中在长江中下游、黄淮地区、华南地区、西北地区及东北北部距平符号一致率较高。而模式对降水季节预测的偏差主要表现为我国东部降水量强度预测偏小,对夏季降水异常的预报技巧有限,且不同年份模式的预测效果差异较大。模式对夏季西太平洋及印度洋高海温区范围预测偏小,对副热带高压和东亚地区低层水汽辐合的强度预测偏弱,从而导致风场与环流场的配置与观测不一致,使得模式对我国东部夏季降水预测显著偏少。从模式预测效果年际差异来看,当华南地区实况降水量偏多、长江中下游及东北地区降水量偏少时,模式具有较高的预测技巧,反之,模式的预报技巧较低。分析中国东部降水与海温的相关关系发现,夏季西北太平洋、热带西太平洋和北印度洋是影响中国东部夏季降水的关键区域,模式中西北太平洋海温偏低对模式预报技巧具有重要影响,海温场、高度场、风场及水汽通量散度场不同的相互配置导致中国东部夏季降水的分布及强度差异,而模式不能合理把握各物理量场间相互作用过程,从而影响模式的预报效果。因此,改进模式对外强迫因子与降水异常相关关系的预测能力是提高我国夏季降水季节预测技巧的主要途径。     

RegCM4.4对中国夏季气候的回报和2014年预测

利用区域气候模式对全球气候模式季节预测产品进行动力降尺度,是获取未来高分辨率季节气候预测结果的重要途径。使用区域气候模式RegCM4.4单向嵌套国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1(m)输出结果,进行东亚19912013年逐年3月1日—9月1日的气候回报试验及2014年3月1日9月1日的气候预测试验。分析模式对中国地区夏季（6-8月）地面气温和降水的回报结果表明:RegCM4.4对夏季气候态的回报优于驱动场模式BCC_CSM1.1(m),并能提供更详细可靠的局地信息;RegCM4.4回报和观测的多年平均气温、降水的空间距平相关系数（ACCs）分别为-0.04和0.01,空间距平符号一致率（PCs）分别为51.1%和50.6%,趋势异常综合评分（PS）分别为64.2和70.3,均方差误差（MSE）分别为1.09 ℃和0.30 mm/d。RegCM4.4对中国地区2014年夏季气候预测结果表明,模式对夏季气温、降水距平整体分布的预测较好,但在次区域尺度上预测结果和观测存在差别。本研究只进行了一个区域气候模式RegCM4.4嵌套一个全球模式BCC_CSM1.1(m)单样本回报和预测试验的动力降尺度试验研究,未来在改进驱动场模式和区域气候模式模拟预测性能、订正驱动场模式输出系统误差及提高运算能力的基础上,进行多模式多样本的集合试验研究,有助于提高精细化短期气候预测产品的质量。     

S2S模式对四川汛期候尺度降水预测技巧评估和误差订正

针对四川汛期候降水距平百分率（PAP）,采用距平相关系数（ACC）、时间相关系数（TCC）、符号一致率（SCR）和趋势异常综合评分（PS）4种预测评分方法对S2S计划中10个模式的预测技巧进行检验评估,并在误差分析的基础上提出“正负概率异常订正”方案对各模式候降水距平百分率预测结果进行订正。结果表明,随着预测时效延长,多数模式的预测技巧快速降低,模式间预测技巧的差距缩小。至第10天左右,各模式进入低技巧时段,预测技巧随时效变化的幅度减小,各模式仅对降水趋势异常有一定预测能力,其中BoM模式明显高于其他模式。除BoM模式外的其他模式对降水年际变化幅度都存在低估,降水距平百分率异常偏差为?33%—?18%,不随预测时效发生太大变化,但空间分布不均。经过误差订正各模式的距平相关系数和符号一致率有所提高,趋势异常综合评分有效提高,并且对次季节尺度的订正效果优于天气尺度。订正后,各模式在次季节尺度的平均趋势异常综合评分均高于76.8, 66.7%的模式评分为79.2—80.2,超过业务评分标准（72.0）近8分。订正效果在4 a独立样本检验中也得到验证。      

近百年来我国降水量的变化

从相邻地理区域内降水距平分布特征的相关性出发,通过降水量距平场经验正交函数展开,建立了我国42站月降水量插补模式,并得到了各站1881—1981年间连续、均一的降水量序列。对年、季降水量距平场的经验正交函数分解表明,不同符号的降水量距平带状交替出现,是我国年、季降水量距平分布的基本型式。42站年、季降水量的主成分,一般都没有明显的长期趋势,方差谱分析得出的统计显著周期分量,有集中出现在周期为35年、4.7年和2年左右波段中的倾向。统计分析表明,4.7年左右的周期分量,可能与南方涛动有关。除了降水量变化的周期性以外,在太阳黑子11年周期中,平均距平程度也有显著的变化,在太阳黑子活动11年周期极大值年附近,旱、涝出现机会显著增加。     

DERF2.0模式对江西月尺度气候预测能力的检验评估

基于国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸预测模式(DERF2.0)输出的环流场、地面气象要素场和NCEP/NCAR全球再分析场以及江西省83站气象观测数据,利用空间距平相关系数(ACC)、距平符号一致率(PC)、趋势异常综合评分(PS)三种方法,检验了DERF2.0模式对1983—2018年江西月降水和气温的预测能力,并进一步分析了模式对江西主汛期(6月)异常降水事件预测能力及造成偏差的可能原因。结果表明:1)月气温ACC总体上高于降水,冬季气温和春季降水ACC预报技巧相对较高;模式预测结果总体上能够反映出气温和降水的主要趋势,月气温、降水距平符号一致率均高于55%;模式对江西月降水和气温异常有一定的预测能力,降水PS评分比气温稍好,基本保持在70分左右。2)江西主汛期降水异常偏少时,模式的预测能力较好,而降水异常偏多时,则相对较差,这可能与模式对东亚阻塞高压系统的低估,以及对西太平洋副热带高压模拟的西伸脊点偏西、脊线偏北、强度偏强有关。     

CFSv2模式对东北地区夏季各月降水的预测性能评估

利用距平相关系数(ACC)、距平符号一致率(Pc)、趋势异常综合检验(Ps)等3种方法,对CFSv2模式在东北地区开展的1983-2010年夏季各月降水回报试验结果、2011-2014年业务应用结果进行综合评估。结果表明,CFSv2模式在东北地区夏季各月降水的效果相对较好。尽管目前应用的业务评分办法的评分都相对较高,但年际差异明显,预测效果不稳定,需要进一步提高模式的预测技巧。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.