Estimates of Large-Scale Fluxes in High Latitudes from Terrestrial Biosphere Models and an Inversion of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements

It is important to improve estimates of large-scale carbon fluxes over the boreal forest because the responses of this biome to global change may influence the dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide in ways that may influence the magnitude of climate change. Two methods currently being used to estimate these fluxes are process-based modeling by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), and atmospheric inversions in which fluxes are derived from a set of observations on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations via an atmospheric transport model. Inversions do not reveal information about processes and therefore do not allow for predictions of future fluxes, while the process-based flux estimates are not necessarily consistent with atmospheric observations of CO₂. In this study we combine the two methods by using the fluxes from four TBMs as a priori fluxes for an atmospheric Bayesian Synthesis Inversion. By doing so we learn about both approaches. The results from the inversion indicate where the results of the TBMs disagree with the atmospheric observations of CO₂, and where the results of the inversion are poorly constrained by atmospheric data, the process-based estimates determine the flux results. The analysis indicates that the TBMs are modeling the spring uptake of CO₂ too early, and that the inversion shows large uncertainty and more dependence on the initial conditions over Europe and Boreal Asia than Boreal North America. This uncertainty is related to the scarcity of data over the continents, and as this problem is not likely to be solved in the near future, TBMs will need to be developed and improved, as they are likely the best option for understanding the impact of climate variability in these regions.     

An Analytical Model for the Distribution of CO2 Sources and Sinks, Fluxes, and Mean Concentration Within the Roughness Sub-Layer

A one-dimensional analytical model that predicts foliage CO₂ uptake rates, turbulent fluxes, and mean concentration throughout the roughness sub-layer (RSL), a layer that extends from the ground surface up to 5h, where h is canopy height, is proposed. The model combines the mean continuity equation for CO₂ with first-order closure principles for turbulent fluxes and simplified physiological and radiative transfer schemes for foliage uptake. This combination results in a second-order ordinary differential equation in which soil respiration (R) and CO₂ concentration well above the RSL are imposed as lower and upper boundary conditions, respectively. An inverse version of the model was tested against datasets from two contrasting ecosystems: a tropical forest (h = 40m) and a managed irrigated rice canopy (h = 0.7m), with good agreement noted between modelled and measured mean CO₂ concentration profiles within the entire RSL. Sensitivity analysis on the model parameters revealed a plausible scaling regime between them and a dimensionless parameter defined by the ratio between external (R) and internal (stomatal conductance) characteristics controlling the CO₂ exchange process. The model can be used to infer the thickness of the RSL for CO₂ exchange, the inequality in zero-plane displacement between CO₂ and momentum, and its consequences on modelled CO₂ fluxes. A simplified version of the solution is well suited for being incorporated into large-scale climate models. Furthermore, the model framework here can be used to a priori estimate relative contributions from the soil surface and the atmosphere to canopy-air CO₂ concentration, thereby making it synergetic to stable isotopes studies.     

Consequences of Incomplete Surface Energy Balance Closure for CO2 Fluxes from Open-Path CO2/H2O Infrared Gas Analysers

We present an approach for assessing the impact of systematic biases in measured energy fluxes on CO₂ flux estimates obtained from open-path eddy-covariance systems. In our analysis, we present equations to analyse the propagation of errors through the Webb, Pearman, and Leuning (WPL) algorithm [Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 85–100, 1980] that is widely used to account for density fluctuations on CO₂ flux measurements. Our results suggest that incomplete energy balance closure does not necessarily lead to an underestimation of CO₂ fluxes despite the existence of surface energy imbalance; either an overestimation or underestimation of CO₂ fluxes is possible depending on local atmospheric conditions and measurement errors in the sensible heat, latent heat, and CO₂ fluxes. We use open-path eddy-covariance fluxes measured over a black spruce forest in interior Alaska to explore several energy imbalance scenarios and their consequences for CO₂ fluxes.     

Linear regressions do not predict the transient responses of eastern north american forests to CO2-induced climate change

Previous research has shown that various fluxes of carbon from and into ecosystems are correlated with summary climatic measures, such as actual evapotranspiration (AET). The best known of these is a regression of net primary production of terrestrial vegetation against AET published by Rosenzweig (1968). Rosenzweig intended this regression to represent steady state relationships of net primary production to climate. Nevertheless, it is tempting to use such regressions to predict transient responses of carbon flux to climate change, and several models take such an approach. Here, using a more detailed ecosystems model, we show that lags in population responses to climate change and non-linear changes in soil nitrogen availability that limit tree growth cause large departures from this regression during the transition between current climate and a 2 × CO₂ climate. Simple models that do not consider population or soil dynamics may err when applied to the period of transition during a changing climate.     

A simple hydrologic framework for simulating wetlands in climate and earth system models

Wetlands are ecosystems of important functions in the earth??s climate system. Through relatively high evapotranspiration, they affect surface water and energy exchange with the atmosphere directly influencing the physical climate. Through CH₄, CO₂ and N₂O fluxes, they regulate the biogeochemical cycles, indirectly influencing the physical climate. However, current models do not explicitly include the water table, present under all large and stable wetlands; model wetlands are identified as flat land with wet soil resulting from precipitation events. That is, the wetlands are only ??wetted?? from above but not from below by the high water table. Furthermore, without the knowledge of the water table position, estimates of CH₄ and other gases (e.g., CO₂ and N₂O) are poorly constrained. We present a simple hydrologic framework for simulating wetlands based on water table depth. A synthesis of hydrologic controls on wetlands highlights the key role that groundwater plays. It directly feeds wetlands, supports surface-water fed wetlands by maintaining a saturated substrate, and links land drainage to sea level by impeding drainage in lowlands. Forced by routine climate model output (precipitation?Cevapotranspiration-surface runoff), land topography, and sea level, we simulate the present-day water table in North America at the 1?km scale. We validate the simulation with water table observations and compare regions of shallow water table to mapped wetlands. Our results show that the framework captures the salient features of wetland distribution and extent at regional and continental scales, a direct result of large-scale groundwater convergence that nourishes the lowlands even in arid climates. The low requirement of forcing and computation make the framework easy to adopt in climate and earth system models for simulating wetland responses to climate and sea level change for the present, paleo reconstructions, and future projections.     

Quantification of ecosystem carbon exchange characteristics in a dominant subtropical evergreen forest ecosystem

CO₂ fluxes were measured continuously for three years (2003?C2005) using the eddy covariance technique for the canopy layer with a height of 27 m above the ground in a dominant subtropical evergreen forest in Dinghushan, South China. By applying gapfilling methods, we quantified the different components of the carbon fluxes (net ecosystem exchange (NEE)), gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) in order to assess the effects of meteorological variables on these fluxes and the atmospherecanopy interactions on the forest carbon cycle. Our results showed that monthly average daily maximum net CO₂ exchange of the whole ecosystem varied from ?3.79 to ?14.24 ??mol m^?2 s^?1 and was linearly related to photosynthetic active radiation. The Dinghushan forest acted as a net carbon sink of ?488 g C m^?2 y^?1, with a GPP of 1448 g Cm^?2 y^?1, and a R_eco of 961 g C m^?2 y^?1. Using a carboxylase-based model, we compared the predicted fluxes of CO₂ with measurements. GPP was modelled as 1443 g C m^?2 y^?1, and the model inversion results helped to explain ca. 90% of temporal variability of the measured ecosystem fluxes. Contribution of CO₂ fluxes in the subtropical forest in the dry season (October-March) was 62.2% of the annual total from the whole forest ecosystem. On average, 43.3% of the net annual carbon sink occurred between October and December, indicating that this time period is an important stage for uptake of CO₂ by the forest ecosystem from the atmosphere. Carbon uptake in the evergreen forest ecosystem is an indicator of the interaction of between the atmosphere and the canopy, especially in terms of driving climate factors such as temperature and rainfall events. We found that the Dinghushan evergreen forest is acting as a carbon sink almost year-round. The study can improve the evaluation of the net carbon uptake of tropical monsoon evergreen forest ecosystem in south China region under climate change conditions.     

Simulation of Non-Homogeneous CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Its Impact on Regional Temperature in East Asia

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is an important greenhouse gas that influences regional climate through disturbing the earth’s energy balance. The CO₂ concentrations are usually prescribed homogenously in most climate models and the spatiotemporal variations of CO₂ are neglected. To address this issue, a regional climate model (RegCM4) is modified to investigate the non-homogeneous distribution of CO₂ and its effects on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature in East Asia. One-year simulation is performed with prescribed surface CO₂ fluxes that include fossil fuel emission, biomass burning, air–sea exchange, and terrestrial biosphere flux. Two numerical experiments (one using constant prescribed CO₂ concentrations in the radiation scheme and the other using the simulated CO₂ concentrations that are spatially non-homogeneous) are conducted to assess the impact of non-homogeneous CO₂ on the regional longwave radiation flux and temperature. Comparison of CO₂ concentrations from the model with the observations from the GLOBALVIEW-CO₂ network suggests that the model can well capture the spatiotemporal patterns of CO₂ concentrations. Generally, high CO₂ mixing ratios appear in the heavily industrialized eastern China in cold seasons, which probably relates to intensive human activities. The accommodation of non-homogeneous CO₂ concentrations in the radiative transfer scheme leads to an annual mean change of–0.12 W m^–2 in total sky surface upward longwave flux in East Asia. The experiment with non-homogeneous CO₂ tends to yield a warmer lower troposphere. Surface temperature exhibits a maximum difference in summertime, ranging from–4.18 K to 3.88 K, when compared to its homogeneous counterpart. Our results indicate that the spatial and temporal distributions of CO₂ have a considerable impact on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature, and should be taken into account in future climate modeling.     

Estimation of Nocturnal Area Fluxes of Carbon Cycle Gases in Saint Petersburg Suburbs

Carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide are the carbon cycle gases, the data on their emissions are needed when monitoring air pollution and developing methods for reducing anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere and for climate forecasting. The estimates of nocturnal area fluxes for CO₂, CH₄, and CO presented for a suburb of Saint Petersburg (Peterhof) are obtained using the box model and continuous observations of concentration of these gases. The mean values of CH₄, CO₂, and CO fluxes estimated for Peterhof for 2014–2015 are 44 ± 27, 6100 ± 4000, and 90 ± 100 t/(km² year), respectively. The intensity of the CO area flux has pronounced seasonal variations characterized by the maximum of ~(160 ± 120) t/(km² year) in November—February and by the minimum of ~(30 ± 20) t/(km² year) in June-July. The analysis of the ratio of CO/CO₂ fluxes identified the main types of anthropogenic sources typical of Peterhof: motor transport, natural gas combustion, and the use of wood stoves for the heating of private low-rise buildings (in the cold season).     

长江三角洲地区净生态系统二氧化碳通量及浓度的数值模拟

净生态系统碳通量(NEE)的计算对于准确模拟区域碳通量和大气CO₂浓度的时空变化至关重要。本文利用中尺度大气-温室气体耦合模式WRF-GHG(Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Greenhouse Gases Module),对2010年7月28日至2010年8月2日期间影响长江三角洲地区大气CO₂浓度及时空分布的各种过程进行了详尽模拟。结果表明,植被光合呼吸模型(VPRM)能模拟不同植被下垫面NEE的日变化;WRF-GHG模拟的大气CO₂浓度日变化与观测相吻合,但低估了大气CO₂浓度5~15 ppm(ppm表示10-6),这可能与人为排放源的低估、VPRM参数的不确定性以及气象场模拟的不准确性有关。太湖和植被覆盖较好的地区如浙江北部山区是该地区的主要碳汇,而城市为CO₂的主要排放源。太湖和陆地生态系统对区域内碳循环起到一定的调节作用,减缓区域大气CO₂浓度的升高。此外,局地气象条件如湖陆风对太湖周边地区大气CO₂浓度有显著影响。     

Identifying Key Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections

What sources of uncertainty shouldbe included in climate change projections and whatgains can be made if specific sources of uncertaintyare reduced through improved research?DIALOGUE, anintegrated assessment model, has been used to answerthese questions. Central in the approach of DIALOGUEis the concept of parallel modeling, i.e., for eachstep in the chain from emissions to climate change anumber of equivalent models areimplemented. The followingconclusions are drawn:The key source of uncertainty in global temperatureprojections appears to be the uncertainty inradiative forcing models. Within this group ofmodels uncertainty within aerosol forcing models isabout equal to the total forcing of greenhouse gasmodels. In the latter group CO₂ is dominant.The least important source of uncertainty appears tobe the gas cycle models. Within this group of modelsthe role of carbon cycle models is dominant.Uncertainty in global temperature projections hasnot been treated consistently in the literature.First, uncertainty should be calculated as a productof all uncertainty sources. Second, aparticular choice of a base year for global warmingcalculations influences the ranking of uncertainty.Because of this, a comparison of ranking resultsacross different studies is hampered. We argue that`pre-Industrial' is the best choice for studies onuncertainty.There is a linear relationship between maximumuncertainty in the year 2100 and cumulativeemissions of CO₂ over the period 1990–2100:higher emissions lead to more uncertainty.     

The effect of optimization and the nesting domain on carbon flux analyses in Asia using a carbon tracking system based on the ensemble Kalman filter

To estimate the surface carbon flux in Asia and investigate the effect of the nesting domain on carbon flux analyses in Asia, two experiments with different nesting domains were conducted using the CarbonTracker developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. CarbonTracker is an inverse modeling system that uses an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to estimate surface carbon fluxes from surface CO₂ observations. One experiment was conducted with a nesting domain centered in Asia and the other with a nesting domain centered in North America. Both experiments analyzed the surface carbon fluxes in Asia from 2001 to 2006. The results showed that prior surface carbon fluxes were underestimated in Asia compared with the optimized fluxes. The optimized biosphere fluxes of the two experiments exhibited roughly similar spatial patterns but different magnitudes. Weekly cumulative optimized fluxes showed more diverse patterns than the prior fluxes, indicating that more detailed flux analyses were conducted during the optimization. The nesting domain in Asia produced a detailed estimate of the surface carbon fluxes in Asia and exhibited better agreement with the CO₂ observations. Finally, the simulated background atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the experiment with the nesting domain in Asia were more consistent with the observed CO₂ concentrations than those in the experiment with the nesting domain in North America. The results of this study suggest that surface carbon fluxes in Asia can be estimated more accurately using an EnKF when the nesting domain is centered in Asian regions.     

锡林浩特草原CO2通量特征及其影响因素分析

利用锡林浩特国家气候观象台开路涡度相关系统、辐射土壤观测系统,测得的长期连续通量观测数据,对锡林浩特草原2009—2011年期间的CO₂通量观测特征进行了分析。结果表明:CO₂通量存在明显的年际、季节和日变化特征。3 a中NEE年际变率达到200 g·m^-2,季节变率最大达到460 g·m^-2,日变化幅度生长季最大达到0.25 mg·m^-2·s^-1。通过不同时间尺度碳通量与温度、水分、辐射等环境因子的分析,认为CO₂通量日变化主要受温度和光合有效辐射影响,而季节变化和年变化主要受降水和土壤含水量的影响。降水强度及时间分布是制约牧草CO₂吸收的关键因素,大于15%的土壤含水量有利于促进牧草生长。     

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO₂ using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO₂, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO₂-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (~10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration (285–570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO₂ and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO₂-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO₂-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.     

Quality of geological CO2 storage to avoid jeopardizing climate targets

We explore allowable leakage for carbon capture and geological storage to be consistent with maximum global warming targets of 2.5 and 3 °C by 2100. Given plausible fossil fuel use and carbon capture and storage scenarios, and based on modeling of time-dependent leakage of CO₂, we employ a climate model to calculate the long-term temperature response of CO₂ emissions. We assume that half of the stored CO₂ is permanently trapped by fast mechanisms. If 40?% of global CO₂ emissions are stored in the second half of this century, the temperature effect of escaped CO₂ is too small to compromise a 2.5 °C target. If 80?% of CO₂ is captured, escaped CO₂ must peak 300?years or later for consistency with this climate target. Due to much more CO₂ stored for the 3 than the 2.5 °C target, quality of storage becomes more important. Thus for the 3 °C target escaped CO₂ must peak 400?years or later in the 40?% scenario, and 3000?years or later in the 80?% scenario. Consequently CO₂ escaped from geological storage can compromise the less stringent 3 °C target in the long-run if most of global CO₂ emissions have been stored. If less CO₂ is stored only a very high escape scenario can compromise the more stringent 2.5 °C target. For the two remaining combinations of storage scenarios and climate targets, leakage must be high to compromise these climate targets.     

Accounting for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> variability over East Asia with a regional joint inversion system and its preliminary evaluation

A regional surface carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux inversion system, the Tan-Tracker-Region, was developed by incorporating an assimilation scheme into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional chemical transport model to resolve fine-scale CO₂ variability over East Asia. The proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation approach (POD-4DVar) is the core algorithm for the joint assimilation framework, and simultaneous assimilations of CO₂ concentrations and surface CO₂ fluxes are applied to help reduce the uncertainty in initial CO₂ concentrations. A persistence dynamical model was developed to describe the evolution of the surface CO₂ fluxes and help avoid the “signal-to-noise” problem; thus, CO₂ fluxes could be estimated as a whole at the model grid scale, with better use of observation information. The performance of the regional inversion system was evaluated through a group of single-observation-based observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The results of the experiments suggest that a reliable performance of Tan-Tracker-Region is dependent on certain assimilation parameter choices, for example, an optimized window length of approximately 3 h, an ensemble size of approximately 100, and a covariance localization radius of approximately 320 km. This is probably due to the strong diurnal variation and spatial heterogeneity in the fine-scale CMAQ simulation, which could affect the performance of the regional inversion system. In addition, because all observations can be artificially obtained in OSSEs, the performance of Tan-Tracker-Region was further evaluated through different densities of the artificial observation network in different CO₂ flux situations. The results indicate that more observation sites would be useful to systematically improve the estimation of CO₂ concentration and flux in large areas over the model domain. The work presented here forms a foundation for future research in which a thorough estimation of CO₂ flux variability over East Asia could be performed with the regional inversion system.     

Modelling Vegetation-Atmosphere Co2 Exchange By A Coupled Eulerian-Langrangian Approach

A Eulerian-Lagrangian canopy microclimate model wasdeveloped with the aim of discerning physical frombiophysical controls of CO₂ and H₂O fluxes. The model couples radiation attenuation with mass,energy, and momentum exchange at different canopylevels. A unique feature of the model is its abilityto combine higher order Eulerian closure approachesthat compute velocity statistics with Lagrangianscalar dispersion approaches within the canopy volume. Explicit accounting for within-canopy CO₂,H₂O, and heat storage is resolved by consideringnon-steadiness in mean scalar concentration andtemperature. A seven-day experiment was conducted inAugust 1998 to investigate whether the proposedmodel can reproduce temporal evolution of scalar(CO₂, H₂O and heat) fluxes, sources andsinks, and concentration profiles within and above auniform 15-year old pine forest. The modelreproduced well the measured depth-averaged canopy surfacetemperature, CO₂ and H₂O concentrationprofiles within the canopy volume, CO₂ storageflux, net radiation above the canopy, and heat andmass fluxes above the canopy, as well as the velocitystatistics near the canopy-atmosphere interface. Implications for scaling measured leaf-levelbiophysical functions to ecosystem scale are alsodiscussed.     

CO2 equivalences for short-lived climate forcers

With advancing climate change there is a growing need to include short-lived climate forcings in cost-efficient mitigation strategies to achieve international climate policy targets. Tools are required to compare the climate impact of perturbations with distinctively different atmospheric lifetimes and atmospheric properties. We present a generic approach for relating the climate effect of short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) to that of CO₂ emissions. We distinguish between three alternative types of metric-based factors that can be used to derive CO₂ equivalences for SLCF: based on forcing, activity and fossil fuel consumption. We derive numerical values for a wide range of parameter assumptions and apply the resulting generalised approach to the practical example of aviation-induced cloudiness. The evaluation of CO₂ equivalences for SLCF tends to be more sensitive to SLCF specific physical uncertainties and the normative choice of a discount rate than to the choice of a physical or economic metric approach. The ability of physical metrics to approximate economic-based metrics alters with changing atmospheric concentration levels and trends. Under reference conditions, physical CO₂ equivalences for SLCF provide sufficient proxies for economic ones. The latter, however, allow detailed insight into structural uncertainties. They provide CO₂ equivalences for SLCF in short term strategies in the face of failing climate policies, and a temporal evolution of CO₂ equivalences over time that is noticeably better in line with cost-efficient climate stabilisation.     

Simulating zonal scale shifts in the partitioning of surface and subsurface freshwater flow in response to increasing pCO2

Freshwater discharge is one main element of the hydrological cycle that physically and biogeochemically connects the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean and directly responds to changes in pCO₂. Nevertheless, while the effect of near-future global warming on total river runoff has been intensively studied, little attention has been given to longer-term impacts and thresholds of increasing pCO₂ on changes in the partitioning of surface and subsurface flow paths across broad climate zones. These flow paths and their regional responses have a significant role for vegetation, soils, and nutrient leaching and transport. We present climate simulations for modern, near-future (850?ppm), far-future (1880?ppm), and past Late Cretaceous (1880?ppm) pCO₂ levels. The results show large zonal mean differences and the displacement of flows from the surface to the subsurface depending on the respective pCO₂ level. At modern levels the ratio of deeper subsurface to near-surface flows for tropical and high northern latitudes is 1:4.0 and 1:0.5, respectively, reflecting the contrast between permeable tropical soils and the areas of frozen ground in high latitudes. There is a trend toward increased total flow in both climate zones at 850?ppm, modeled to be increases in the total flow of 34 and 51%, respectively, with both zones also showing modest increases in the proportion of subsurface flow. Beyond 850?ppm the simulations show a distinct divergence of hydrological trends between mid- to high northern latitudes and tropical zones. While total wetting reverses in the tropics beyond 850?ppm due to reduced precipitation, with average zonal total runoff decreasing by 46% compared to the 850?ppm simulation, the high northern latitude zone becomes slightly wetter with the average zonal total runoff increasing by a further 3%. The ratio of subsurface to surface flows in the tropics remains at a level similar to the present day, but in the high northern latitude zone the ratio increases significantly to 1:1.6 due to the loss of frozen ground. The results for the high pCO₂ simulations with the same uniform soil and vegetation cover as the Cretaceous are comparable to the results for the Cretaceous simulation, with higher fractions of subsurface flow of 1:5.4 and 1:5.6, respectively for the tropics, and 1:2.2 and 1:1.6, respectively for the high northern latitudes. We suggest that these fundamental similarities between our far future and Late Cretaceous models provide a framework of possible analogous consequences for (far-) future climate change, within which the integrated human impact over the next centuries could be assessed. The results from this modeling study are consistent with climate information from the sedimentary record which highlights the crucial role of terrestrial-marine interactions during past climate change. This study points to profound consequences for soil biogeochemical cycling, with different latitudinal expressions, passing of climate thresholds at elevated pCO₂ levels, and enhanced export of nutrients to the ocean at higher pCO₂.