Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran

In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in rainfall amount, number of rainy days and maximum precipitation in 24?h are investigated based on the data collected at 33 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trend and climate variability is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. The Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test indicate that there are no significant linear trends in monthly rainfall at most of the synoptic stations in Iran. However, the maximum number of stations with negative trends have been observed in April (29 station), and then in May (21 stations) and February (21 stations) and with positive trends in December (26 stations) and July (24 stations). The significant linear trends, with a significant level of 0.05, in annual rainfall have been noticed only at five stations. The monthly number of rainy days does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in rainy days has also been observed in April with the minimum in December. In April, out of 24 stations with negative trends, 12 stations have a significant negative trend. Contrary to that, in October there is no significant linear trend. Most stations have positive trends in annual number of rainy days. Also, the monthly maximum precipitation in 24?h does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in maximum precipitation has also been observed in February with the minimum in December. In spite of that, there are almost no significant precipitation variations in Iran during the last 50-odd years, the tendency of decreasing rainfall amount in April and increasing rainfall amount in December and July could indicate an eventual climate change in this area in the future.     

Mathematical modelling of the annual temperature wave based on monthly mean temperatures,and comparisons between local climate trends at seven Norwegian stations

Summary Based on observed monthly mean temperatures, it is possible to construct a simple mathematical model of the annual variation of daily mean temperature, the annual temperature wave. For periods of 15 years, the model gives a good correlation with the observed monthly values. The model may be used as a tool for the generation of daily mean temperatures for the corresponding period. It is continuous, differentiable and strictly monotonous between the unique maximum and the minimum of the curve. Consequently, climate quantities of interest for each period can be calculated by the means of simple mathematical analyses. The model was tested by reproducing values for quantities such as annual mean temperature, winter mean temperature, summer mean temperature and temperature sums. Model calculated values, fit values calculated directly from observed data well. The model was also tested by comparing results from two different but neighbouring stations. There was a good correlation between the results from the two stations. Long homogenised time series with 130 years of monthly mean temperature from seven Norwegian stations were analysed by means of the model. It was found that the Frost Free Season Length and the Growth Season Length had increased for all stations by 10–20 days/100 years in the period 1871–1990. The Summer Half-year Length, even if it was defined relative to the annual mean temperature, also increased for all stations by 4–9 days/100 years. The Hot Season Length showed positive trends as well, and for the five stations in Southern Norway, the trends were as high as 18–29 days/100 years. The Heat Sum had increased by 6–11% for southern stations and 20–22% for the northern stations. The results indicate that the level as well as the shape of the annual temperature wave changed in the period from 1871 to 1990. Some of the results for the period 1990–1999 diverge substantially from the trends, possibly indicating significant changes in the shape of the annual temperature wave in this last period.     

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece

Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940–2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years; (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method; and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years, relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.     

Urban-rural fog differences in Belgrade area,Serbia

Urban/rural fog appearance during the last 27 years in the Belgrade region is analysed using hourly meteorological records from two meteorological stations: an urban station at Belgrade-Vra?ar (BV) and a rural station at Belgrade-Airport (BA). The effects of urban development on fog formation are discussed through analysis of fog frequency trends and comparison with a number of meteorological parameters. The mean annual and the mean annual minimum temperatures were greater at the urban BV station than at the rural BA station. The mean monthly relative humidity and the mean monthly water vapour pressure were greater at the rural than urban station. During the period of research (1988–2014), BA experiences 425 more days with fog than BV, which means that BV experiences fog for 62.68% of foggy days at BA. Trends in the number of days with fog were statistically non-significant. We analysed the fog occurrence during different types of weather. Fog in urban BV occurred more frequently during cyclonal circulation (in 52.75% of cases). In rural BA, the trend was the opposite and fog appeared more frequently during anticyclonic circulation (in 53.58% of cases). Fog at BV occurred most frequently in stable anticyclonic weather with light wind, when a temperature inversion existed (21.86% of cases). Most frequently, fog at BA occurred in the morning and only lasted a short time, followed by clearer skies during the anticyclonic warm and dry weather (22.55% of cases).     

Variability of maximum and mean average temperature across Libya (1945–2009)

Spatial and temporal variability in daily maximum and mean average daily temperature, monthly maximum and mean average monthly temperature for nine coastal stations during the period 1956–2009 (54 years), and annual maximum and mean average temperature for coastal and inland stations for the period 1945–2009 (65 years) across Libya are analysed. During the period 1945–2009, significant increases in maximum temperature (0.017 °C/year) and mean average temperature (0.021 °C/year) are identified at most stations. Significantly, warming in annual maximum temperature (0.038 °C/year) and mean average annual temperatures (0.049 °C/year) are observed at almost all study stations during the last 32 years (1978–2009). The results show that Libya has witnessed a significant warming since the middle of the twentieth century, which will have a considerable impact on societies and the ecology of the North Africa region, if increases continue at current rates.     

Long-term changes in annual maximum snow depth and snowfall in Switzerland based on extreme value statistics

Mountain snow cover is an important source of water and essential for winter tourism in Alpine countries. However, large amounts of snow can lead to destructive avalanches, floods, traffic interruptions or even the collapse of buildings. We use annual maximum snow depth and snowfall data from 25 stations (between 200 and 2,500?m) collected during the last 80 winters (1930/31 to 2009/2010) to highlight temporal trends of annual maximum snow depth and 3-day snowfall sum. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with time as a covariate is used to assess such trends. It allows us in particular to infer how return levels and return periods have been modified during the last 80?years. All the stations, even the highest one, show a decrease in extreme snow depth, which is mainly significant at low altitudes (below 800?m). A negative trend is also observed for extreme snowfalls at low and high altitudes but the pattern at mid-altitudes (between 800 and 1,500?m) is less clear. The decreasing trend of extreme snow depth and snowfall at low altitudes seems to be mainly caused by a reduction in the magnitude of the extremes rather than the scale (variability) of the extremes. This may be caused by the observed decrease in the snow/rain ratio due to increasing air temperatures. In contrast, the decreasing trend in extreme snow depth above 1,500?m is caused by a reduction in the scale (variability) of the extremes and not by a reduction in the magnitude of the extremes. However, the decreasing trends are significant for only about half of the stations and can only be seen as an indication that climate change may be already impacting extreme snow depth and extreme snowfall.     

Evaluating persistence and identifying trends and abrupt changes in monthly and annual rainfalls of a semi-arid region in Western India

In this study, 43-year (1965–2007) monthly and annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations in a semi-arid region of western India are analyzed by adopting three tests for testing normality and by applying autoregressive technique for exploring persistence. Gradual trends are identified by three tests, and their magnitudes are assessed by the Sen’s slope estimator. Also, abrupt changes are detected by using four tests and they are further confirmed by two tests. Box-whisker plots revealed that the rainfalls of June and September are right skewed for all the stations. The annual rainfalls of Bhinder, Dhariawad, and Gogunda stations are found considerably right skewed. The normality tests indicated that the rainfall of July does not deviate from the normal distribution at all the stations. However, the annual rainfall is found non-normal at five stations. The monthly rainfalls of June, July, and August have persistence respectively at three (Mavli, Salumber, and Sarada), two (Kherwara and Sarada), and one (Mavli) stations, whereas the annual rainfall has persistence at Girwa and Mavli stations. Significantly increasing trend is detected at Mavli in the rainfall of July and in the annual rainfall (p value?>?0.05), while the negative trend in August rainfall at Dhariawad is found significant (p value?>?0.10). This study revealed that the presence of serial correlation does not affect the performance of the Mann-Kendall test. Mean values of trend magnitudes for the rainfalls of June, July, August, and September are 0.3, 0.8, ?0.4, and 0.4 mm year^?1, respectively, and the overall mean value for the annual rainfall is 0.9 mm year^?1. It is found that the standard normal homogeneity test and the Pettitt test are biased towards the end of the series to locate a change point. Conversely, the Bayesian test has a tendency to look for a change point in the beginning of time series. Confirmed abrupt changes in the rainfall time series are found in the year 2003 (Bhinder) in June; years 1974 (Mavli) and 1989 (Dhariawad and Salumber) in July; years 1972 (Sarada), 1990 (Dhariawad), and 2003 (Mavli) in August; years 1977 (Dhariawad), 1991 (Sarada), and 2004 (Kotra) in September; and in the year 1972 (Mavli and Sarada stations) in the annual series. It is emphasized that the significantly increasing trend of rainfall may have linkages with climate change and/or variability. Finally, this study recommends use of multiple statistical tests for analyzing hydrologic time series in order to ensure reliable decisions.     

An analysis of daily and monthly precipitation seasonality and regimes in Iran and the associated changes in 1951–2014

Daily and monthly total precipitation of 155 synoptic stations with relatively regular distribution over Iran, covering the 1990–2014 period, were used to investigate the spatial pattern of precipitation seasonality and regimes over Iran, using a set of precipitation seasonality indices. The results suggest a strong agreement between the indices computed at monthly time scale. The result also shows a latitudinal decreasing gradient from the lower index values in the north to the highest values in the south of Iran, suggesting a strong negative relationship between the latitude and the indices. A weak but statistically significant association was also found between the indices and the longitude, showing a gradual west-east contrast between the mountainous western Iran and the central-eastern lowlands and deserts of the country. The spatial patterns of the indices well agree in revealing different precipitation regimes in Iran, in spite of the observed discrepancies in their areal extent of the regions identified. All the indices characterized northern Iran by a precipitation regime having a moderate seasonality, while the mountainous areas of the western and northern Iran are featured by a marked precipitation regime possessing a longer dry season. However, the most seasonal precipitation regime with the longest dry period describes the southern country and some spot areas of the central-eastern Iran. The spatial distribution of the seasonal precipitation regimes and the month and season of maximum precipitation amounts across Iran was also identified, suggesting that from the 24 possible precipitation regimes over the globe, eight were found in Iran, from which a precipitation regime with the highest precipitation amount in winter, followed by autumn, spring, and summer characterized most parts of the country. January and JFM were also found as the month and season of maximum precipitation in a majority of stations distributed over Iran, respectively. The precipitation concentration index (DPCI) computed using daily precipitation data ranges between 0.56 and 0.76 across the country; nonetheless, the values between 0.64 and 0.70 characterized a majority of stations distributed over most parts of Iran. Contrarily to the indices computed at monthly time scale, the DPCI does not show a clear latitudinal pattern over the country. The Mann–Kendal trend test and the Sen slope estimator were applied to the computed indices relative to 16 stations with the longest and complete precipitation records during 1951–2014 time period. The indices time series showed no significant trend in the majority of the stations, indicating that the precipitation regimes of the studied stations did not change over 1951–2014 period.     

Surface Air Temperature Variations in Italy: Recent Trends and an Update to 1993

Summary Historical series of monthly mean temperatures from 27 Italian stations, updated to 1993, are analysed. Building on previous analysis the following new results were obtained: there is an upward trend in seasonal and annual temperatures during the last 20 years; a positive trend, stronger at southern stations compared to northern stations, is apparent from 1920 to 1950, after when temperature shows no significant trend until 1985 when it starts to increase again. Data from Northern Italy show similar characteristics to a subset of data from a global climatic database, for the period 1881–1988. This comparison, however, suggests that good station coverage is important for the construction of a more detailed picture of seasonal climate variability. Received February 19, 1998 Revised July 13, 1998     

Accelerated climate change and its potential impact on Yak herding livelihoods in the eastern Tibetan plateau

The Tibetan Plateau has experienced rapid warming like most other alpine regions. Regional assessments show rates of warming comparable with the arctic region and decreasing Asian summer monsoons. We used meteorological station daily precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 80 stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau of southwest China to calculate local variation in the rates and seasonality of change over the last half century (1960–2008). Daily low temperatures during the growing season have increased greatly over the last 24 years (1984–2008). In sites of markedly increased warming (e.g., Deqin, Yunnan and Mangya, Qinghai), daily and growing season daily high temperatures have increased at a rate above 5 °C/100 years. In Deqin, precipitation prior to the 1980s fell as snow whereas in recent decades it has shifted to rain during March and April. These shifts to early spring rains are likely to affect plant communities. Animals like yaks adapted to cold climates are also expected to show impacts with these rising temperatures. This region deserves further investigation to determine how these shifts in climate are affecting local biodiversity and livelihoods.     

Changes in temperature and temperature gradients in the French Northern Alps during the last century

In mountain environments, local factors such as topography or exposure to the sun influence the spatial distribution of temperatures. It is therefore difficult to characterise the global evolution of temperatures over several decades. Such local effects can either accentuate or attenuate thermal contrasts between neighbouring areas. The present study uses two regional thermal indicators—thermal gradients and temperatures reduced to sea level—to monitor the monthly evolution of minimum and maximum temperatures in the French Northern Alps. Measures were calculated for the period extending from 1960 to 2007 based on data from 92 measuring stations. Temperature gradients were computed and further used to monitor the altitudinal evolution of temperatures. A characteristic regional temperature was determined for the whole of the French Northern Alps based on temperatures reduced to sea level, and changes in temperatures since 1960 were assessed. Multiple linear regression models made it possible to extend measurements over a longer period and to make enhanced calculations of temperature changes in the mountains since 1885. This is the first study to examine temperature changes in the French Northern Alps over such an extended period. Gradient data suggest that over the last 50 years, temperatures have changed at all altitudes. In addition, the evaluation of the temperature rise over 100 years reveals that minimal and maximal monthly temperatures trends are only significant a few months of the year.     

Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado

Most climate change studies on high elevation ecosystems identify changes in biota, while several report abiotic factors. However, very few report expansion of the freeze-free period, or discuss monthly changes of temperature and growing degree days (GDD) during the growing season. This study provides initial data on agriculturally-related aspects of climate change during the growing season (M-J-J-A-S) in the inter-montane desert of the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado. Temperature data were gathered from 7 climate stations within the SLV. Based on ordinal days, the last vernal freeze is occurring (p?<?0.05) earlier at 3 stations than in prior years, ranging between 5.52 and 11.86?days during 1981–2007. Significantly-later autumnal freezes are occurring at 5 stations by 5.95–18.10?days, while expansion of the freeze-free period was significantly longer at all stations by 7.20–24.21?days. The freeze-free period averaged about 93?days prior to the 1980s, but now averages about 107?days. Increases (p?<?0.05) in daily mean, maximum, minimum temperature occurred at nearly all stations for each month. Increases in GDD₁₀, GDD_4.4 (potato) and GDD_5.5 (alfalfa) also occurred at nearly all stations for all months during 1994–2007. Higher temperatures increase the number of GDD, quickening crop growth and maturity, and potentially reducing yield and quality unless varieties are adapted to changes and water is available for the season extension and increased evapotranspiration.     

Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002

Summary Monthly precipitation trends of 160 stations in China from 1951–2002 have been analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence levels were detected for numerous stations. The number, distribution, and direction of the trends varied from month to month.The detected trends were spatially interpolated by applying the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation trends gives a better understanding of climatic changes or variations in China during the last 50 years. This is especially the case for highlighting the spatial structure of precipitation trends.A clustering of trends is observed in certain months, including distinct trend belts especially in east and north-east China. Nevertheless, positive as well as negative monthly trends can be noted simultaneously in different areas. The spatial interpolation of precipitation trend analysis results is a useful approach to give further understanding of the regional pattern of precipitation trends in China.     

1958—2004年江汉平原气温变化特征分析

根据1958—2004年江汉平原地区8个站点的月平均气温资料,采用一元回归、相关分析和距平等数理统计方法对近47 a江汉平原地区的多年年、月平均气温和各站点年平均气温随时间的变化进行分析。结果表明:近47 a江汉平原地区年平均气温呈明显上升趋势,四季气温特别是秋、冬季的气温上升显著,而夏季有变凉趋势;月平均气温除7月呈下降趋势之外,其余各月均上升;太阳黑子峰值年和谷值年前后,江汉平原地区的年平均气温易出现极值。     

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Gri? (mild continental climate), (2) Zavi?an (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from ?3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from ?1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from ?0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地1961-1998年逐月平均气温序列的重建

 利用塔里木盆地周边27个气象站1961-2006年逐月平均气温和塔中气象站1999-2006年逐月平均气温资料,同时选取1961-2006年NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5°经纬度距地表2 m的月平均气温再分析格点资料,分别用逐步回归分析、EOF分解和NCEP资料3种方法对塔中气象站1961-1998年历年逐月平均气温序列进行了恢复与重建,分析了误差,并与周边气象站的变化特征进行对比。结果表明,逐步回归和EOF法都能够作为重建塔中逐月平均气温的方法,但相对而言,逐步回归法重建的序列误差更小,平均拟合绝对误差为0.3℃,最大绝对误差为1.9℃。而NCEP/NCAR资料由于冬季存在明显的系统性误差,数值显著偏高,不能用于塔中气温序列的重建。     

1881—2010年哈尔滨市气候变化及其影响

利用哈尔滨站1881—2010年的月平均气温、1909—2010年的月总降水量和1961—2010年哈尔滨所辖区、县（市）月平均气温、月总降水量资料,采用线性趋势分析方法,计算了哈尔滨市气温、降水变化速率,分析了哈尔滨市气候变化特征;阐述了气候变化对哈尔滨市的影响。结果表明：近50 a,除巴彦7月气温略呈下降趋势外,哈尔滨市各区、县（市）各月、季、年平均气温均呈升高趋势。哈尔滨各区、县（市）各月、季、年总降水量变化趋势不一致。近130 a,哈尔滨市年、季平均气温均呈明显的上升趋势,20世纪80年代开始明显增温,21世纪开始增温尤为显著。近百年来,哈尔滨市年、季总降水量均呈减少趋势。气候变化对哈尔滨市农业、能源等方面的影响有利有弊,但对于水资源、人体健康和交通等有较大的负面影响。     

广西月平均温度异常的时空特征及其变化

 利用广西88个气象测站1960-2005年各月平均温度资料，计算月平均温度异常偏高和偏低出现频次，并分别对其时空特征和演变规律进行分析。结果表明：温度异常偏高的发生频次具有较明显的阶段性，近10 a是广西月平均温度异常偏高的多发时期；温度异常偏低出现频次则呈明显的线性下降趋势，1989年以来是广西月平均温度异常偏低的少发期。了解广西月平均温度异常的这些规律，有利于提高短期气候预测水平。     

Trends of spring time frost events and phenological dates in Central Europe

Summary ?Over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere’s continents temperature has been increasing during the last century. Particularly minimum temperatures show a more pronounced increase than maximum temperatures. Not only the phenological seasons, but also the potentially plant damaging late frost events are governed by the atmosphere. In case of a rise of minimum temperatures one would expect phenological phases and spring late frost events to occur earlier. In this work the question is elucidated whether plant phenology shifts at a higher or lower rate towards earlier occurrences than potential plant damaging events, like spring late frost events. Frost events based on the last occurrence of daily minimum temperatures below a certain threshold have been moving faster to earlier occurrence dates than phenological phases during the last decades at 50 climate stations in Central Europe. Trend values of frost time series range around −0.2 days/year and of phenological time series are between −0.2 and 0.0 days/year over the period from 1951–1997. ‘Corylus avellana beginning of pollination’ is the only one of the 13 phases considered here with a lower trend value of −0.28 days/year. Early phases are more adapted to below zero temperatures and therefore follow more closely the temperature variability. Later phases seem to have more reason to be concerned about possible late frost events and react more cautiously towards higher spring temperatures and earlier last frost dates. The risk of late frost damage for plants should have been lower during the last decade as compared to the previous decades. Received June 28, 2002; accepted July 18, 2002     

Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe

Many studies have observed changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods during the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extremes, this paper shows that precipitation extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. The analysis is based on a unique dataset of 108 years of 10-minute precipitation intensities at Uccle (Brussels), not affected by instrumental changes. We also checked the consistency of the findings with long precipitation records at 724 stations across Europe and the Middle East. The past 100 years show for northwestern Europe, both in winter and summer, larger and more precipitation extremes around the 1910s, 1950–1960s, and more recently during the 1990s–2000s. The oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930–1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years.