1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.     

中国天山冰川变化脆弱性研究

冰川是重要的淡水资源,对社会经济发展和生态环境影响显著,而其变化的脆弱性也关乎区域生态服务和经济可持续发展。本文以中国天山为例,基于脆弱性的暴露度、敏感性、适应能力构建涵盖自然地理特征、人口状况、社会经济水平、农业发展和社会服务等因素的冰川变化脆弱性框架,并以此针对性构建评价指标体系,探析天山冰川变化脆弱性的空间特征,采用地理探测器模型探讨自然、社会、经济和人口等因素对冰川变化适应能力的影响及交互作用。结果表明：① 脆弱性等级由西部地区向东部地区呈降低趋势,且水平差异显著。天山东部地区脆弱性最低、中部地区次之、西部地区较高。② 暴露度、敏感性和适应能力在空间上分别存在明显正相关与负相关,表明区域范围内冰川变化具有高暴露、高敏感地区往往适应能力较低,进而导致脆弱性较高;反之,脆弱性较低。③ 天山应对冰川变化能力的空间异质性是自然、社会、经济和人口因素共同作用的结果。其中,第二、三产业产值、城镇人口数、城镇固定资产投资与年末单位从业人员等因素具有主导作用。     

祁连山老虎沟冰芯记录的高山区大气降水变化（英文）

The net accumulation record of ice core is one of the most reliable indicators for reconstructing precipitation changes in high mountains.A 20.12 m ice core was drilled in 2006 from the accumulation zone of Laohugou Glacier No.12 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,China.We obtained the precipitation from the ice core net accumulation during 1960-2006,and found out the relationship between Laohugou ice core record and other data from surrounding sites of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.Results showed that during 1960-2006,the precipitation in the high mountains showed firstly an increasing trend,while during 1980 to 2006 it showed an obvious decreasing trend.Reconstructed precipitation change in the Laohugou glacier basin was consistent with the measured data from the nearby weather stations in the lower mountain of Subei,and the correlation coefficient was 0.619(P<0.001).However,the precipitation in the high mountain was about 3 times more than that of the lower mountain.The precipitation in Laohugou Glacier No.12 of the western Qilian Mountains corresponded well to the net accumulation of Dunde ice core during the same period,tree-ring reconstructed precipitation,the measured data of multiple meteorological stations in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau,and also the changes of adjacent PDSI drought index.Precipitation changes of the Laohugou glacier basin and other sites of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau had significantly positive correlation with ENSO,which implied that the regional alpine precipitation change was very likely to be influenced by ENSO.     

Spatiotemporal variability in tree ring’s δ13C of Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains: climatic significance and responses to rising CO2

The carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) of tree rings was used to assess changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency (W_i) to increasing atmospheric CO₂ and climate change during the period of 1891–2003. Five Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) stands were selected in the Qilian Mountains, growing along a precipitation gradient. All five δ¹³C were correlated to each other, but two sites (DDS and CLS), which are far from the main body of the mountains, show relative weak connections to other sites. Although trees at all sites had improved their W_i in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration, spruce growing in the regions far away from the main body of the mountains were less sensitive to improved W_i than those of other sites. Based on the correlation between carbon isotope discrimination (Δ) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the drought history covering the period of 1891–2003 was reconstructed in the study region. The two most severe drought epochs of the late 1920s and the last decade were caused by reduced precipitation and climate warming, respectively. Our results will be useful in assessing any further spatial climate-related bioclimatic information.     

祁连山东段山地景观格局变化及其生态脆弱性分析

以RS和GIS技术为主要手段,分析了祁连山东段地区1994-2008年的景观格局变化及其生态脆弱性。结果表明：（1）与1994年相比,森林、草地、冰雪带、水域4种景观要素的面积分别减少了5.0%、2.0%、2.2%、2.0%,而灌木和裸地的面积则分别增加了6.8%、5.0%;灌木、草地、冰雪带和裸地景观要素的平均斑块面积分别增加了49.0%、19.0%、1.1%、436.6%,森林和水域平均斑块面积分别减小了9.6%和4.1%。（2）森林、草地、冰雪带、水域4种景观要素的平均最邻近距离增加,聚集度降低,各景观要素内部斑块之间聚集度减小。灌木与森林景观要素之间的空间邻接长度增加了3 867 km,裸地与其他景观要素之间的空间邻接长度增加了5 589 km,嵌缀在其他各种景观要素中的裸地小斑块逐渐融合成大斑块。（3）景观类型脆弱度指数与破碎度指数之间显著正相关,分维数倒数、分离度指数和沙化敏感性指数与景观类型脆弱度指数呈弱度正相关。祁连山东段地区森林和草地退化,面积萎缩、水域干涸,裸地面积增加,各景观要素的空间关系趋于简单,景观破碎化增加。人类活动所引起的景观破碎化是祁连山东段地区景观格局和景观脆弱性变化的决定性因素。     

Glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background during the past half century

Based on the glacier area variation records in the typical regions of China monitored by remote sensing, as well as the meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation from 139 stations and the 0℃ isotherm height from 28 stations, the glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background in the past half century was discussed. The initial glacier area calculated in this study was 23,982 km2 in the 1960s/1970s, but the present area was only 21,893 km2 in the 2000s. The area-weighted shrinking rate of glacier was 10.1%, and the interpolated annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glacier was 0.3% a-1 since 1960. The high APAC was found at the Ili River Basin and the Junggar Interior Basin around the Tianshan Mountains, the Ob River Basin around the Altay Mountains, the Hexi Interior Basin around the Qilian Mountains, etc. The retreat of glacier was affected by the climatic background, and the influence on glacier of the slight-increased precipitation was counteracted by the significant warming in summer.     

近50年气候变化背景下中国西部冰川面积状况分析(英文)

Based on the glacier area variation records in the typical regions of China moni-tored by remote sensing, as well as the meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation from 139 stations and the 0℃ isotherm height from 28 stations, the glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background in the past half century was discussed. The initial glacier area calculated in this study was 23,982 km2 in the 1960s/1970s, but the present area was only 21,893 km2 in the 2000s. The area-weighted shrinking rate of glacier was 10.1%, and the interpolated annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glacier was 0.3% a-1 since 1960. The high APAC was found at the Ili River Basin and the Junggar Interior Basin around the Tianshan Mountains, the Ob River Basin around the Altay Mountains, the Hexi Interior Basin around the Qilian Mountains, etc. The retreat of glacier was affected by the climatic background, and the influence on glacier of the slight-increased precipitation was counteracted by the significant warming in summer.     

天山东段乌鲁木齐河源区冰雪消融与产汇流水文过程（英文）

Hydrological processes were compared,with and without the influence of precipitation on discharge,to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region,on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains,during the melting season(May-September) in 2011.The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals,meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals,and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque,Zongkong,and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations.The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations.The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station,which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations.There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations,with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge.When precipitation was not considered,the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1-3 h,10-16 h,and 5-11 h at the Glacier No.1,Empty Cirque,and Zongkong gauging stations,respectively.When precipitation was taken into consideration,the corresponding time-lags were 0-1 h,13 h,and 6-7 h,respectively.Therefore,the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow.It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered.The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different.For Glacier No.1 station,the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region,and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5℃ in the melt season.It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years.Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence.It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.     

西北太平洋区域海面变化——过程、特征与预测(英文)

Based on 22 sparse-distributed tide gauge records in the Northwest Pacific Ocean marginal sea, the process, characteristic and prediction of regional sea level change are discussed by the integration of the following methods. Firstly, the regularized EM algorithm (RegEM) and the Multi-taper Spectral Method (MTM) are adopted to interpret their multiscale fluctuation processes and their spatial-temporal variations. Secondly, the orderly cluster method is introduced to classify these tidal stations, and with the consideration of the space adjacent relation, we obtain five sub-regions (the coasts of Bohai Sea-northern Yellow Sea, Yellow Sea-East China Sea along Chinese coast, the East China Sea along Japanese coast, the southern East China Sea and the northwestern South China Sea). Furthermore, the Mean Generation Function (MGF) is explored to predict the medium- and long-term trends of each tide station. Finally, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to obtain re-gional-scale sea level change trends, sea level rise rates of the above five sub-regions from 2001 to 2030 are 1.23-1.27 mm/a, 3.30-3.34 mm/a, 2.72-2.76 mm/a, 1.43-1.47 mm/a and 1.13-1.15 mm/a respectively, and the whole region sea level rise rate is between 2.01 mm/a and 2.11 mm/a. The aim of our work is to conduct an integrated research on regional sea level change.     

基于SRP概念模型的祁连山地区生态脆弱性评价

基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度(SRP)概念模型,从地形、气候、植被和社会经济因子选取8个评价指标,利用遥感和GIS技术,采用主成分分析方法求取权重,对祁连山地区启动水源涵养区生态环境保护和综合治理规划研究前后近10 a的生态脆弱性程度进行系统、定量地评估,旨在揭示生态脆弱性的分布特征、时空演变及动因,为区域生态保护、资源利用和可持续发展提供参考。结果表明:(1)从研究区生态脆弱性分布来看,祁连山地区主要以轻度和重度脆弱为主,脆弱性程度从西北向东南地区逐渐减弱,西北地区植被覆盖度小,海拔高,生态环境较为恶劣是导致脆弱性程度较高的原因;(2)祁连山地区3期生态脆弱程度呈逐渐下降趋势,综合指数分别为3.307、3.118和3.103;2005年生态脆弱性较高,极度脆弱面积为28 610 km²,2010年下降为11 723 km²,2015年降低为6 174 km²,极度脆弱面积逐渐减少;(3)从祁连山地区生态脆弱性演变动因来看,8个指标对生态脆弱性影响均较为显著,但在不同的时间影响程度各不相同,2005—2015年...     

Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half-century: Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory

Glaciers are the most important fresh-water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of western China. According to the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory (SCGI), primarily compiled from Landsat TM/ETM+ images, the Qilian Mountains had 2684 glaciers covering an area of 1597.81±70.30 km2 and an ice volume of ~84.48 km³ from 2005 to 2010. While most glaciers are small (85.66% are <1.0 km²), some larger ones (12.74% in the range 1.0–5.0 km²) cover 42.44% of the total glacier area. The Laohugou Glacier No.12 (20.42 km²) located on the north slope of the Daxue Range is the only glacier >20 km² in the Qilian Mountains. Median glacier elevation was 4972.7 m and gradually increased from east to west. Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains are distributed in Gansu and Qinghai provinces, which have 1492 glaciers (760.96 km²) and 1192 glaciers (836.85 km²), respectively. The Shule River basin contains the most glaciers in both area and volume. However, the Heihe River, the second largest inland river in China, has the minimum average glacier area. A comparison of glaciers from the SCGI and revised glacier inventory based on topographic maps and aerial photos taken from 1956 to 1983 indicate that all glaciers have receded, which is consistent with other mountain and plateau areas in western China. In the past half-century, the area and volume of glaciers decreased by 420.81 km² (–20.88%) and 21.63 km³ (–20.26%), respectively. Glaciers with areas <1.0 km² decreased the most in number and area recession. Due to glacier shrinkage, glaciers below 4000 m completely disappeared. Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains presented a clear longitudinal zonality, i.e., the glaciers rapidly shrank in the east but slowly in the central-west. The primary cause of glacier recession was warming temperatures, which was slightly mitigated with increased precipitation.     

Source and environmental significance of oxalate in Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Qilian Mountains,Western China

Retrieval of oxalate from snow and ice provides information on past environmental changes. In recent years, records of organic acids in middle-and low-latitude glaciers have attracted the attention of researchers globally. In this study, we analyzed oxalates in an ice core from Laohugou Glacier No. 12 on the Qilian Mountains at an elevation of 5,040 m a.s.l. in2006. Average oxalate concentration was 18.5±2.4 ng/g over the prior 46 years. Oxalate values showed a significantly increasing trend since 1985. From 1985 to 1995, oxalate concentrations had large fluctuations, peaking in about 1987 and exhibiting a slightly decreasing trend since 1995. The result shows that the abrupt increase of oxalate concentration in the ice core since the mid-1980 s reflects atmospheric environmental pollution by human and industrial activities.     

Evaluation and spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier service value in the Qilian Mountains

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Glaciers provide essential resources and services for human well-being and so-cio-economic development in arid regions. It is of great significance for regional...     

Analysis on factors of glacier velocity: A case study of the Qiyi Glacier, Qilian Mountains

Glacier shape factors (area, length, and thickness), climatic factors (annual temperature and precipitation), mass balance, and other influence factors, of the Qiyi glacier velocity and their intensity were analyzed with the application of the path analysis method during 1958–2007. Results indicate that glacier velocity was mainly influenced by glacier shape, followed by mass balance and climatic conditions. Among the influence factors, glacier area and thickness are most significant, and direct and indirect path coefficients are respectively 6.56, 4.71, 19.29 and 13.57. This research provides information for further understanding glacier velocity and its influencing factors.     

The change of Ningchan River Glacier No. 3 at Lenglongling, east Qilian Mountain, China

In July, 2009, we investigated the Ningchan River Glacier No. 3. A control network was established around the glacier and the expedition used a GPS-RTK to measure glacial area, terminal and surface altitude, and used an EKKO GPR to measure glacier thickness. We used a topographic map based on 1972 aerial photo, two TM images in 1995, 2009, and GPS-RTK data in 2009, to analyze the change of the Ningchan River Glacier No. 3 since 1972. Through analysis we found this glacier has been seriously shrinking over the past 37 years. The glacier terminal retreated about 6%, the area was reduced about 13.1%, the volume was reduced about 35.3%, and glacier shrinkage is mainly in the form of thinning. Glacier average thickness reduced from 36.8 m in 1972, to 27.4 m in 2009. Meteorological data around the study area shows that this region in recent decades has undergone differential warming which is the main reason for rapid glacier shrinkage.     

祁连山及河西走廊气候变化的时空分布特征

利用祁连山区及河西走廊20个气象站的气温和降水资料,运用一元回归分析、5 a趋势滑动、Spline插值法,进行气候变化的时空分布特征分析。结果表明：祁连山及河西走廊的气温在20世纪60—80年代偏低,90年代以后偏高;气温的年际变化率为0.0298 ℃·a^-1,并且升温趋势显著;大部分地区的增温幅度在0.02~0.04 ℃·a^-1之间,其中祁连山区的增温幅度大于走廊平原;气温的年际变化幅度在空间上呈现出南北分异,大致以黑河干流为界,中东部地区的增温幅度从南到北呈增大趋势,而中西部地区从南到北呈减小趋势;降水在60年代偏少,其他年代偏多,其中2000年以后明显增多;降水的年际变化率为0.6571 mm·a^-1,不过增加趋势不太明显;大部分地区降水的增加幅度在0~2 mm·a^-1之间,其中祁连山区的增加幅度大于走廊平原;降水的年际变化幅度在空间上呈现出南北分异,其增加幅度从南到北呈减小趋势。     

祁连山冰川服务价值评估及其时空特征

冰川为干旱区人类福祉和社会经济发展提供必不可少的资源与服务,开展冰川服务价值评估及时空特征研究对于区域社会经济可持续发展和环境保护具有重要意义.基于祁连山第一次和第二次冰川编目数据,通过构建冰川服务价值评估体系,并结合单位面积服务价格法、价值当量因子法和冰川服务价值变化指数等方法,评估祁连山冰川服务价值及时空变化.结果...     

近50年来中国天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应

基于1960 年以来中国天山各流域冰川面积变化的统计分析,系统地研究了中国天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应情况。结果表明,近50 年来中国天山冰川的面积缩小了11.5%,对研究时段统一化后发现面积年均退缩率为0.31% a^-1。各流域冰川面积退缩速度存在一定差异,但冰川加速消融趋势明显。天山地区14 个气象站的气温与降水量倾向率平均值分别为0.34 ^oC·(10 a)^-1与11 mm·(10 a)^-1,气温在干季增幅大而在湿季增幅略小,降水量在干季增长缓慢而在湿季增长显著,这样的气候变化趋势有助于天山冰川的退缩。