A parametric representation of Kamchatka seismicity over time

This paper presents a set of seismicity parameters that are estimated at the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences based on the regional catalog data with the purpose of routine monitoring of the current seismic situation in the region. The focus is on the identification of changes in the seismic regime (seismic quiescences and seismicity increases) in earth volumes adjacent to the maturing rupture zone of a large earthquake. The techniques we use include estimation of the seismicity level for the region using the SOUS’09 scale; calculation of the variations in the slope of the recurrence relation, identification of statistically significant anomalies in the slope using the Z test, and calculation of the seismic activity A ₁₀; monitoring the RTL parameter and variations in the area of seismogenic ruptures; using the Z test to detect areas of statistically significant decreases in the rate of seismicity; and identification of earthquake clusters. We furnish examples of such anomalies in these seismicity parameters prior to large earthquakes in Kamchatka.     

A probabilistic model of seismicity: Kamchatka earthquakes

The catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes is represented as a probability space of three objects {Ω, $ \tilde F $ \tilde F P}. Each earthquake is treated as an outcome ω _i in the space of elementary events Ω whose cardinality for the period under consideration is given by the number of events. In turn, ω _i is characterized by a system of random variables, viz., energy class k_i, latitude φ _i , longitude λ _i , and depth h _i . The time of an outcome has been eliminated from this system in this study. The random variables make up subsets in the set $ \tilde F $ \tilde F and are defined by multivariate distributions, either by the distribution function $ \tilde F $ \tilde F (φ, λ, h, k) or by the probability density f(φ, λ, h, k) based on the earthquake catalog in hand. The probabilities P are treated in the frequency interpretation. Taking the example of a recurrence relation (RR) written down in the form of a power law for probability density f(k), where the initial value of the distribution function f(k ₀) is the basic data [Bogdanov, 2006] rather than the seismic activity A ₀, we proceed to show that for different intervals of coordinates and time the distribution f _elim(k) of an earthquake catalog with the aftershocks eliminated is identical to the distribution f _full(k), which corresponds to the full catalog. It follows from our calculations that f ₀(k) takes on nearly identical numeral values for different initial values of energy class k ₀ (8 ≤ k ₀ ≤ 12) f(k ₀). The difference decreases with an increasing number of events. We put forward the hypothesis that the values of f(k ₀) tend to cluster around the value 2/3 as the number of events increases. The Kolmogorov test is used to test the hypothesis that statistical recurrence laws are consistent with the analytical form of the probabilistic RR based on a distribution function with the initial value f(k ₀) = 2/3. We discuss statistical distributions of earthquake hypocenters over depth and the epicenters over various areas for several periods     

Diurnal periodicity of weak earthquakes and high-frequency underground noise in Kamchatka

We have analyzed the data on the times and number of weak earthquakes (M = 0–2.5) included in the up-to-date (final version) Catalog of Kamchatka Earthquakes for 1995–2008, and the intensity of highfrequency underground noise measured in the deep borehole near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy (according to the literature data). We calculated the spectra of the seismic time series within the range of periods from 1 to 48 hours with a step of one minute. It was found that the spectrum of the earthquake data series contains a significant high Q extremum in a period of 24 hours that can be linked with a similar period in the high-frequency underground noise in Kamchatka and in the Russian Platform. There are some grounds to suggest that the weak earthquakes and the underground noise (seismoacoustic emission) have the same nature. In both cases, the shapes of the curve of the diurnal periodicity are found to depend on the duration of light during the day. The probable reasons for the solar impact on the seismic emission processes are discussed.     

Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems

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Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems

A nonlinear magnitude frequency equation has been derived in this paper on the assumption that all seismicity systems hold fractal characteristics, and according to the differences of relevant coefficients in the equation, seismicity systems are classified into two types: type I, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by only one great unified system; type II, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by more than one great system. One type of seismicity system may convert to the other type, generally. For example, a type I system will change to a type II system prior to the occurrence of a strong earthquake in North China. This change can be regarded as an index for earthquake trend estimation. In addition, the difference between b value in nonlinear magnitude frequency equation and that in linear equation and the term dΔM related to the coefficients of nonlinear terms obtained in this paper are proved to be a pair of available parameters for medium short term earthquake prediction.     

On the seismicity of central Kamchatka before the 1997, M = 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake

We report results from a detailed study of seismicity in central Kamchatka for the period from 1960 to 1997 using a modified traditional approach. The basic elements of this approach include (a) segmentation of the seismic region concerned (the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks, the continental slope and offshore blocks), (b) studying the variation in the rate of M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes and in the amount of seismic energy release over time, (c) studying the seismicity variations, (d) separate estimates of earthquake recurrence for depths of 0–50 and 50–100 km. As a result, besides corroborating the fact that a quiescence occurred before the December 5, 1997, M = 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake, we also found a relationship between the start of the quiescence and the position of the seismic zone with respect to the rupture initiation. The earliest date of the quiescence (decreasing seismicity rate and seismic energy release) was due to the M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes at depths of 0–100 km in the Kronotskii geoblock (8–9 years prior to the earthquake). The intermediate start of the quiescence was due to distant seismic zones of the Shipunskii geoblock and the circular zone using the RTL method, combining the Shipunskii and Kronotskii geoblocks (6 years). Based on the low magnitude seismicity (M≥2.6) at depths of 0–70 km in the southwestern part of the epicentral zone (50–100 km from the mainshock epicenter), the quiescence was inferred to have occurred a little over 3 years (40 months) before the mainshock time and a little over 2 years (25 months) in the immediate vicinity of the epicenter (0–50 km). These results enable a more reliable identification of other types of geophysical precursors during seismic quiescences before disastrous earthquakes.     

Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…     

Changes in the diurnal periodicity of Southern California earthquakes in the neighborhood of the catalog magnitude of completeness

Dependence of the diurnal periodicity phase diagrams for Southern California earthquakes on their magnitude is studied with the Rayleigh-Schuster method. The highest statistical significance of diurnal periodicity is characteristic for the weakest non-representative earthquakes occurring in the night rather than in the daytime. The statistical significance of the earthquake diurnal periodicity decreases as the earthquake magnitude increases. Diurnal periodicity disappears in the neighborhood of the catalog magnitude of completeness. It appears again with a reasonably high level of statistical significance in the magnitude range exceeding the magnitude of completeness. However, its phase becomes opposite: strong earthquakes are more frequent in the daytime. Phase diagrams of different spatial earthquake sample groups are compared, and the night and daytime earthquake recurrence graphs are studied.     

Asymmetrical pulses, the periodicity and synchronization of low frequency microseisms

Seismic records of eight IRIS broadband stations were analyzed at distances of 70 to 7160 km from the magnitude 8.3 Hokkaido earthquake of September 25, 2003. The stations situated in the subduction zone recorded asymmetrical microseismic pulses lasting 3–10 min a few days before the earthquake. No such pulses were observed in the records of the stations situated outside the subduction zone. Similar pulses were also recorded before the magnitude 7.8 Kronotskii, Kamchatka earthquake of 1997. The pulses are hypothesized to have been caused by creeping movements. Synchronous oscillations of microseismic noise with periods of 1–3 h were recorded as far as 3000 km from the Hokkaido earthquake a few days before it occurred. The noise coherence measure increased for stations closer to the epicenter. The question of the source of this coherence remains open. These effects belong to the class of those occurring in dissipative metastable systems; parts of the terrestrial lithosphere during the precursory periods of seismic catastrophes seem to be such systems.     

Convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis of low seismicity area

Historical seismic data and seismogenic information are quite scarce for the low seismicity region, and modeling the parameters uncertainties based on probabilistic model is suspicious. The convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis approach is proposed. The uncertainties of b value, the annual occurrence rate v and the upper bound magnitude M_u are described by the envelop bound convex model and the ellipsoidal bound convex model. Convex analysis method and China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology are combined to perform a bound seismic hazard analysis for Ningbo city, China. The seismic intensity interval obtained using the bound seismic hazard analysis is compared with that calculated using China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the interval of seismic intensity is most sensitive to the annual occurrence rate v. Furthermore, the different convex models have little effect on the interval of seismic intensity.     

On the eruptions, deformation, and seismicity of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka in 1986–2005 and the mechanisms of its activity

The eruptions, seismicity, and deformations, the properties of the magma feeding, and the mechanism of the activity of Klyuchevskoy, a giant basaltic volcano in Kamchatka, are considered. Twenty-eight author’s papers on the above subjects, published from 1985 to 2006, are reviewed. The activity of Klyuchevskoy the adventive and summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 is described. The seismicity of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 and its relation to eruptions are considered. It was inferred from geodetic measurements that the center of the magmatic pressure beneath the volcano moved in the depth range from 3 to 25 km during the period from 1979 to 2005. Based on previously developed models and observations from 1986 to 2005, the main properties of the Klyuchevskoy magma feeding system and the magma ascent in five major parts of the system are described and characterized: near the top of the plunging Pacific plate (with a depth of approximately 160 km), in the asthenosphere (160 to 40 km), in the region of the intermediate magma chamber where the magmas coming from below are accumulated (40 to 20 km), in the crust (20 to 5 km), and in the upper part of the system (from a depth of 5 km under the volcanic edifice to the crater at an altitude of 4.75 km). A comparison between the outputs from the summit and adventive eruptions on Klyuchevskoy as functions of time for the period from 1978 to 2005 shows that the probability of adventive eruptions should increase in the future.     

Loading protocols for European regions of low to moderate seismicity

Existing loading protocols for quasi-static cyclic testing of structures are based on recordings from regions of high seismicity. For regions of low to moderate seismicity they overestimate imposed cumulative damage demands. Since structural capacities are a function of demand, existing loading protocols applied to specimens representative of structures in low to moderate seismicity regions might underestimate structural strength and deformation capacity. To overcome this problem, this paper deals with the development of cyclic loading protocols for European regions of low to moderate seismicity. Cumulative damage demands imposed by a set of 60 ground motion records are evaluated for a wide variety of SDOF systems that reflect the fundamental properties of a large portion of the existing building stock. The ground motions are representative of the seismic hazard level corresponding to a 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years in a European moderate seismicity region. To meet the calculated cumulative damage demands, loading protocols for different structural types and vibration periods are developed. For comparison, cumulative seismic demands are also calculated for existing protocols and a set of records that was used in a previous study on loading protocols for regions of high seismicity. The median cumulative demands for regions of low to moderate seismicity are significantly less than those of existing protocols and records of high seismicity regions. For regions of low to moderate seismicity the new protocols might therefore result in larger strength and deformation capacities and hence in more cost-effective structural configurations or less expensive retrofit measures.     

On the influence of earthquake energy range on the estimated seismicity parameters before the magnitude 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake of 1997

Results are reported from a detailed study of central Kamchatka seismicity for the period 1962–1997 based on a modification of the traditional approach. The approach involves (a) a detailed structure of the seismic region that recognizes the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks and two further blocks, the continental slope, and the offshore portion, (b) a study of variations in the rate of M = 3.0–7.2 earthquakes and the amount of seismic energy released at depths of 0–50 and 51–100 km, (c) a study of seismicity variability, and (d) separate estimates of the recurrence of crust-mantle earthquakes (depths 0–50 km) and mantle events (51–100 km). As a result, apart from corroborating the fact of a quiescence preceding the December 5, 1997 Kronotskii earthquake (M 7.9), we also found that a relationship exists between its beginning and the position of the earthquake-generating region relative to the mainshock epicenter. The quiescence dominates the seismic process during the pre-mainshock period and is characterized by a decreased rate of earthquakes (the first feature) and a decreased amount of seismic energy release (the second feature). Based on the first feature, we found that the quiescence started in 1987 throughout the entire depth range (0–100 km) in both parts of the Kronotskii geoblock close to the rupture zone of the eponymous earthquake. As to the Shipunskii geoblock, which is farther from the rupture zone, the quiescence began in the mantle of the inner area first (1988) and somewhat later at depths of 0–50 km within the continental slope (1989). By the second feature, the quiescence began at shallower depths in the inner area of the Kronotskii geoblock at the same time and later on (a year later) in the mantle (1988). Under the continental slope of the trench in the Shipunskii geoblock the shallower quiescence also began in 1987, while it was 3 years late in the inner zone (1990) and involved the earthquake-generating earth volume at depths of 0–100 km. These data are identical with or sufficiently close to the estimate for the beginning of this quiescence using a circular area of radius 150 km that combines the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks by the RTL method (1990).     

Nature of the sunrise effect in daily electric field variations at Kamchatka: 2. Electric field frequency variations

The power spectra of time variations in the electric field strength in the near-Earth’s atmosphere and in the geomagnetic field horizontal component, which were simultaneously observed at the Paratunka observatory (φ = 52°58.3′ N; λ = 158°14.9′ E) in September 1999, have been studied. The periods of the day (including sunrise, sunset, and night) have been considered. It has been indicated that oscillations with periods T ～ 2.0–2.5 h are present in the power spectra of these parameters during the day. The intensity of these oscillations increases noticeably and the oscillations in the band of periods T < 1 h increase simultaneously in the field strength power spectra at sunrise. The variations in the argument of the cross-spectrum of these parameters indicated that oscillations in the 2.0–2.5 h period band are caused by sources that are located above the ionospheric dynamo region; at the same time, oscillations in the 0.5–1 h period band are caused by sources in the lower atmosphere. A possible mechanism by which these oscillations are generated, related to the vortex motion of convective cells that originate at sunrise in the boundary atmospheric layer, is proposed.     

Long-term seismicity in regions of present day low seismic activity: the example of western Europe

In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude M_s is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment.     

The response of water level in the YuZ-5 well, Kamchatka to the magnitude 9.3, Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004

Forced and free oscillations of water level were recorded in the YuZ-5 well, Kamchatka due to the passage of seismic waves from the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, M _w = 9.3, hypocentral distance 8250 km. The greatest amplitude of water level oscillations, at least 5 cm, was observed during the onset of seismic surface waves with a typical period of 20–50 s. The total duration of the forced and free water level oscillations was about ten hours. The available theoretical models that describe oscillations of water level in a well due to seismic waves and rapid injection of water were used to estimate the transmissivity of the aquifer. The values obtained exceed by at least two orders of magnitude the transmissivity derived from pumping test measurements. A hypothesis was proposed to explain the temporary increase in aquifer transmissivity during the passage of seismic waves by invoking disturbances in the structure of the crack-pore space and a sharp increase in aquifer rock permeability.     

Seismic hazard estimate for a low seismicity region — Example of Bohemia

The contribution reviews basic concepts of earthquake hazard assessment for sites of nuclear power plants. Taking into account the delineation of earthquake source regions, intensity-frequency relations, upper intensity thresholdsI _max and intensity attenuation curves, we determine the seismic hazard for a site in south Bohemia and calculated the quantities defining the seismic hazard, i.e. return period in years, probability of exceedance for different intensities and different periods of interest. The adopted procedure has some limitations due to the poor definition of seismogenic zones (boundaries,N(I),I _max) and lack of strong motion observations in Central Europe.Communication presented at the XVII General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission in Budapest, 21–29 August 1980.     

Space-time variations of the shear wave attenuation field in the upper mantle of seismic and low seismicity areas

This paper deals with characteristics of the short period S-wave attenuation field in the rupture zones of 37 large and great earthquakes with M _s = 7.0–8.6, as well as in low seismicity areas. We estimate the effective quality factor from Sn and Lg coda envelopes in two time intervals (Q ₁ and Q ₂). The quantity Q ₁ is a measure of shear wave attenuation in the uppermost mantle, at depths of down to approximately 200–250 km, while Q ₂ is relevant to deeper horizons of the upper mantle. We studied variations in the attenuation field in the rupture zone of the 1950 Assam earthquake. We examined the parameters Q ₁, Q ₂, and Q ₁/Q ₂ as functions of the time ΔT elapsed after a large earthquake. It is shown that the parameter Q ₂ in rupture zones is practically independent of ΔT, while the quantities Q ₁ and Q ₁/Q ₂ increase until ΔT ～ 20–25 years, especially rapidly for normal, normal-oblique, and strike-slip earthquake mechanisms. This analysis provides evidence that, as ΔT increases, so does the quality factor in the upper mantle for shear waves. It is supposed that this is related to the rise of mantle fluids to the crust. Geodynamic mechanisms are discussed that can support a comparatively rapid “drying” of the upper mantle beneath earthquake rupture zones.