井水混浊度监测及其与地震活动的相关性研究

报道了云南玉溪市杯源机井使用地下水动态纤监测系统样机对井水混浊度微观定量自动监测情况，并对其结果与高精度水温，地电等地震前兆以及气温、气压、降雨等气象因素和地震活动性进行了相关分析。结果表明：混浊度异常与邻近井及本身的水温异常有良好的相关性，与地电等有关地震前兆和地震活动性有一定程度的相关，而与气象因素没有明显的关系。     

旱涝震浅见

对旱、涝成因以及与地震的关系进行了研究，从气象因素上探讨了进一步识别地震前兆异常的方法。     

密封措施对降低洞体形变观测气象类因素干扰的效果与分析

结合2010年5月初的一次密封措施,以天为单位统计各月内影响淮北地震台洞体形变观测的气象因素类型及其变化情况,分析造成干扰的主要气象因素类型及密封效果,结果表明:影响淮北台洞体形变观测的主要气象类型为大风、气压和降水,密封能有效降低大风和气压因素造成的干扰。     

断层气定点观测主要影响因素的研究

本文对干旱地区５个断层气观测点２－３年的观测资料与同时段气象因素，用数学方法进行对比、分析。初步结构表明，气温是断层气的观测主要影响因素。本文还对气温影响地下气体逸出的机理进行了讨论。     

地震电磁辐射电极法干扰因素的讨论

首先扼要介绍了电极法地震电磁辐射的仪器性能、干扰概况和干扰与异常的识别。通过大量资料相关分析表明，雷电、磁暴等空中电磁扰动信号，以及气温、降水等气象因素，都不是电极法电场观测地震电磁辐射的明显干扰因素；当地低空特强雷电和布极区附近的较大电气设备启闭，可造成干扰，但此干扰可以识别和排除。     

地震电磁辐射电极法干扰因素的探讨

首先扼要介绍了电极法地震电磁辐射的仪器性能、干扰概况和干扰与异常的识别。通过大量资料相关分析表明，雷电、磁暴等空中电磁扰动信号，以及气温，降水等气象因素，都不是电极法电场观测地震电磁辐射的明显干扰因素；当地低空特强雷电和布极区附近的较大电气设备启闭，可造成干扰，但此干扰可以识别和排除。     

海康盐场井水化离子与地震关系初探

本文对广东省海康盐场339^#深井8年来的水化观测资料进行了初步分析，认为该井Cl^-含量和Ca^ Mg^ 合量的下尝稳定型的，它们与气象等外界因素影响无明显关系，对一定范围内的地震活动具有震兆显示能力。     

南通地震监测中心站跨断层短水准观测数据分析及异常判断

以南通地震监测中心站跨断层短水准场地2017年11月28日观测曲线上升率异常为例，通过对短水准观测场地环境、观测场地标志的稳定性、仪器工作状态、气象因素水文因素、人为影响、异常变化特点等因素分析。结果认为此次异常为台站附近施工改变观测环境的影响以及观测系统误差、人为影响因素综合叠加导致的观测数据产生异常。结合观测环境变化，提出了对短水准N-S1向加速上升异常进行核实判断的思路。     

断层气动态变化特征及其与地震活动的关系

本文介绍了白浮断层气观测点的监测研究结果，表明在一些地震前观测的断层气（特别是Ｈｇ）的异常变化。其异常特征是震前出现异常高值突跳，异常幅度大、时间短，而震后一般变化不大，同时本文还讨论了断层气的变化特征与气象因素的关系。     

高温微风条件下太湖流域风场时空特征分析

适宜太湖蓝藻水华大面积形成的诸多因素中,气象因素主要是高温、微风.据此对太湖周边17个常规气象观测站的7年报文资料进行筛选,选择的17个站点同时满足时间为14点、气温大于2590、风速小于等于4m/s的风场进行分析,研究发现太湖流域风场空间特征以东南风居多,而且不同风向的背景风场吹过水面后.在下风向湖面及湖岸附近都存在...     

青海湖水位变化与湖区气候要素的相关分析

对湖区现有气象和水文资料作相关分析后得出,影响青海湖水位或水量的主要气象因子是前期降水量、当年蒸发量、水汽压饱和差及融冰期开始后的气温。影响湖周水系流量的气象因子则视发源地远近而异：源于近处的短程河溪的流量受制于当时降水量;源于冰山雪岭的较长河流的流量,由发源地及其流域的固态水储量和当时热状况而定。     

昌黎井水氡、水位、降雨之间的相关分析

对1982年至1997年昌黎井的水氡、水位月均值和昌黎气象站的降雨资料,以不同的时间尺度进行了相关计算。结果表明, 水氡与水位资料的趋势变化具有很好的相关性(R=0.833, n=168)和同步性。较小时间尺度的相关计算结果显示,水位、水氡与降雨不仅具有相关性、同步性,而且也具有差异性,这种差异性特征可作为地震前兆异常,并与唐山地区的地震对应较好,据此可作为短期地震预报指标。     

Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland

This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.     

Dynamic factor analysis and artificial neural network for estimating pan evaporation at multiple stations in northern Taiwan

Abstract

Evaporation is an important reference for managers of water resources. This study proposes a hybrid model (BD) that combines back-propagation neural networks (BPNN) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to simultaneously precisely estimate pan evaporation at multiple meteorological stations in northern Taiwan through incorporating a large number of meteorological data sets into the estimation process. The DFA is first used to extract key meteorological factors that are highly related to pan evaporation and to establish the common trend of pan evaporation among meteorological stations. The BPNN is then trained to estimate pan evaporation with the inputs of the key meteorological factors and evaporation estimates given by the DFA. The BD model successfully inherits the advantages from the DFA and BPNN, and effectively enhances its generalization ability and estimation accuracy. The results demonstrate that the proposed BD model has good reliability and applicability in simultaneously estimating pan evaporation for multiple meteorological stations.

Citation Chang, F.J., Sun, W., and Chung, C.H., 2013. Dynamic factor analysis and artificial neural network for estimating pan evaporation at multiple stations in northern Taiwan. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 813–825.     

晋10—1井水位短周期变化的原因

1990年12月28日晋10－1井水位突升，文中研究了晋10－1井附近的环境，分析了与井水位变化的相关事件，得出霍州电厂水源井系水是晋10－1井水位短周期变化的主要影响因素的结论。     

Estimation des valeurs journalieres de l'evapotranspiration potentielle d'un bassin hydrographiqueEstimation of the daily potential evapotranspiration values of an hydrographic basin

A method is established for computing the daily potential evapotranspirations of an entire hydrographic basin. It is based on the energy balance method. Its particularity lies in the fact that the daily values of the transfer factor between the evaporation of a virtual free water surface and the evapotranspiration of a vegetation cover are determined as a function of meteorological variables by means of a precise analytical expression.The potential evapotranspirations computed by this method are in very good accordance with the potential evapotranspirations deduced from water balances. Five watersheds in Belgium were chosen for testing the method.The daily values of the numerous meteorological elements which are taken into account by the computer method and the corresponding values of the potential evapotranspirations of different natural surfaces are grouped in two tables given as examples. These ones show how the transfer factors and the potential evapotranspirations of different natural surfaces react to the complex interactions between the different meteorological elements and namely to the heat transfer between surface and ground.     

声雷达探测与直接测量温度结构系数的对比研究

本文用对比方法研究声雷达定量探测温度结构系数的接收因子和衰减因子,分析了接收因子与某些气象要素的关系。分析结果表明,在63米高度上接收因子E=C_T,a²/C_T,d²与局地稳定度有关,它随稳定度的增大而增大;E值大小还与水汽量有关,E随水汽量的增大而增大;E值大小还与高度有关,它随高度增大而减小。分析结果还表明,在稳定条件下,衰减因子L_E(E₁₆₀/E₆₃)的大小与160米高度上的水平风速有关,它随风速的增大而增大。文中还对气象条件对声雷达定量探测温度结构系数的影响进行了讨论。     

Epidemiological analysis of malaria and its relationships with hydrological variables in four municipalities of the State of Amazonas,Brazil

Abstract

This work comprises a spatial, temporal and statistical analysis of the epidemiology of malaria occurrence in four municipalities of the State of Amazonas, Brazil: Coari, Codajás, Manacapuru and Manaus, for the period 2003–2009. The number of malaria cases, precipitation, water level and temperature data were analysed in this study. The strength of the relationship between these hydrological/meteorological variables and the occurrence of malaria was determined by employing the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. Seasonal peaks of malaria were registered, on average, about 1–2 months before the annual maximum temperature and after the river’s seasonal high-water level. The phenomenon called repiquete (notable variations in the water level) was observed during periods of between 9 and 56 days. The results showed a statistically significant correlation between malaria, temperature, precipitation and water level. Temperature influenced malaria occurrence the least, while rainfall was the most important factor, especially in the municipality of Coari. Water level had an important influence on the records of malarial occurrence in the municipality of Manacapuru.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Wolfarth, B.R., Filizola, N., Tadei, W.P., and Durieux, L., 2013. Epidemiological analysis of malaria and its relationships with hydrological variables in four municipalities of the State of Amazonas, Brazil. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1495–1504.     

关于湖泊沉积物磷释放及其测定方法的雏议

湖水位下降是近期我国西北地区湖泊一种普遍现象,由于该地区湖泊多属闭合流域,湖泊水位下降往往导致湖水浓缩咸化,进而给湖体及湖周带来一系列的生态环境问题,本文根据近几十年来岱海的湖区气候,湖泊集水域的入湖径流特征分析,以及湖泊水量平衡计算,分辨出１９５５－１９９５年３．８５ｍ,的水位降幅中,人为影响的贡献为３．１７ｍ,占８２％,自然因素的贡献为０．６８ｍ,占１８％,说明岱海湖水位下降主要是集水域内人类     

1990—2019年江苏片区入太湖水量变化及原因分析

为了对江苏片区主要入太湖水量的原因进行定量化分析研究,基于1990-2019年的气象数据、遥感数据以及沿江引水量数据,借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验与突变检验法、Envi5.3以及Pearson系数法分别对近30年入湖水量、建筑用地、降雨量和蒸发量与引江水量进行了突变检验,并以入湖水量为因变量,对各因素间的相关性和贡献度做了量化研究.结果表明,研究区域的入湖水量近30年来上升趋势达到了95%,城市化率、气象条件和沿江引水量都是导致其变化的主要原因,其中人为干扰(城市化率和沿江引水量)与自然影响(气象条件)的贡献度各占50%.未来建议强化海绵城市的建设,合理科学地对沿江水资源进行调度使用,以降低城镇化率上升与外部引水增加带来的影响.