Impact of climate changes over the extratropical land on permafrost dynamics under RCP scenarios in the 21st century as simulated by the IAP RAS climate model

Estimates of possible climate changes and cryolithozone dynamics in the 21st century over the Northern Hemisphere land are obtained using the IAP RAS global climate model under the RCP scenarios. Annual mean warming over the northern extratropical land during the 21st century amounts to 1.2–5.3°C depending on the scenario. The area of the snow cover in February amounting currently to 46 million km² decreases to 33–42 million km² in the late 21st century. According to model estimates, the near-surface permafrost in the late 21st century persists in northern regions of West Siberia, in Transbaikalia, and Tibet even under the most aggressive RCP 8.5 scenario; under more moderate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6), it remains in East Siberia and in some high-latitude regions of North America. The total near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere in the current century decreases by 5.3–12.8 million km² depending on the scenario. The soil subsidence due to permafrost thawing in Central Siberia, Cisbaikalia, and North America can reach 0.5–0.8 m by the late 21st century.     

Climate change in IAP RAS global model taking account of interaction with methane cycle under anthropogenic scenarios of RCP family

Carried out are numerical experiments with the IAP RAS global climate model (IAP RAS CM) under new RCP scenarios of anthropogenic impact for the 18th–21st centuries taking account of the response of the methane emission from the soil to the atmosphere and effects of chemical processes in the atmosphere on the climate changes. The model generally simulates the preindustrial and present-day characteristics of the methane cycle. Methane emissions from the soil to the atmosphere (within the range of 150–160 Mt CH₄/year for the present-day period) reach 170–230 Mt CH₄/year by the late 21st century depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impact. The methane concentration under the most aggressive RCP 8.5 anthropogenic scenario increases up to 3900 ppb by the late 21st century. Under more moderate RCP 4.5 and 6.0 anthropogenic scenarios, it reaches 1850–1980 ppb in the second half of the 21st century and decreases afterwards. Under RCP 2.6 scenario, the methane concentration maximum of 1730 ppb in the atmosphere is reached in the second decade of the 21st century. The taking account of the interaction between the processes in the soils and the climate leads to the additional increase in the methane content in the atmosphere by 10–25% in the 21st century depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impact. The taking account of the methane oxidation in the atmosphere in the case of warming reduces the increase in its concentration by 5–40%. The associated changes in the surface air temperature turn out to be small (less than 0.1 K globally or 4% of the warming expected by the late 21st century).     

Changes in climate extremes on the territory of Siberia by the middle of the 21st century: An ensemble forecast based on the MGO regional climate model

The results are analyzed of the ensemble forecast of temperature and precipitation extremes on the territory of Siberia by the middle of the 21st century based on the regional climate model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) with the resolution of 25 km. The results of computation of oceanic components of CMIP3 coupled models are used as the boundary conditions on the sea surface. It is demonstrated that the high resolution of the regional model enables to simulate the observed climate variability in a more realistic way as compared to the low-resolution models. The analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio for future climate changes made it possible to determine to which degree its internal variability for various time scales (from interannual to interdecennial one) bounds the potential of the ensemble to compute the statistically significant anthropogenic changes of extremes. A comparative analysis of variations of extreme and average seasonal characteristics of the Siberian climate is carried out.     

基于CMIP5模式集合预估21世纪中国气候带变迁趋势

本文选用耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）数据,结合英国东英吉利大学气候研究中心（CRU）气温和降水资料,分析了中国20世纪末期气候带分布;以此为基础,模拟并分析了RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种情景下中国21世纪中期和末期气候带的变迁趋势。结果表明：CMIP5模式集合数据能较好地模拟出中国区域气温和降水空间分布形态,CRU分析资料描述的气候带分布与柯本气候分类吻合较好。21世纪中期、末期与20世纪末期相比,RCP2.6情景下,气候类型及分布变化并不显著,RCP8.5情景下,热夏冬干温暖型分别增加了28.2%（中期）、86.9%（末期）,草原气候分别增加了24.1%（中期）、49.4%（末期）。热夏冬干冷温型到21世纪末期有明显的增加,但苔原气候和沙漠气候类型所占比重减少。     

Analysis of changes in fire-hazard conditions in the forests in Russia in the 20th and 21st centuries on the basis of climate modeling

Different means to estimate changes in fire-hazard conditions in the Russian forests are analyzed in connection with climate changes. Climate data are considered as based upon standard observations and calculated characteristics obtained from the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Space distributions are calculated of changes in extreme conditions for fire hazard at the end of the 21st century, as compared with those at the end of the 20th century.     

Assessment of possible expansion of the climatic range of Italian locust (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Calliptamus italicus</Emphasis> L.) in Russia in the 21st century at simulated climate changes

The areas of distribution, high pest damage, and mass reproduction of Italian locust are mainly limited by climatic factors. It is demonstrated that under conditions of the RCP4.5 moderate scenario of anthropogenic impact on the global climate system in Russia in the 21st century the climatic range of Italian locust will be expanded mainly northward and, to a smaller extent, eastward. The expansion of the range by the middle of the 21st century as compared with the end of the 20th century will be more significant that at the end of the 21st century versus its middle.     

Assessment of changes in methane emissions from marsh ecosystems of northern Eurasia in the 21st century using regional climate model results

Changes in methane emissions into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems are assessed with models for the European and Asian parts of Russia using the model unit of a methane cycle and calculations with a regional climate model. The calculations were performed for the present-day base period (1991–2000), for the middle (2041–2050), and late (2091–2100) 21st century using the SRES A2 anthropogenic emission scenario. The average emissions for the base period were equal to 8 Mt CH₄/year for the European part of Russia and 10 Mt CH₄/year for the Asian part. By the middle of the 21st century, they increased up to 11 and 13 Mt CH₄/year, and by the late 21st century, up to 14 and 17 Mt CH₄/year. These tendencies are associated with the increased warm period of the soil and dependence of the integral methane production on temperature. It is predicted that the maximum depth of freezing will lessen in the southern regions of the European and Asian parts of Russia by the late 21st century.     

中国20年一遇气温和降水极值变化的高分辨率模拟

基于25 km高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）嵌套MIROC3.2_hires全球气候模式结果,进行IPCC SRES A1B情景下21世纪气候变化的模拟,分析中国区域未来气温和降水极值重现期的变化。首先检验模式对当代（1981-2000年）极端事件重现期的模拟能力,结果表明,模式能够较好地再现中国地区20年一遇极端事件的基本分布型,但所模拟的数值与观测相比还有一定偏差,特别是在极端降水方面。21世纪中期（2041-2060年）和末期（2081-2100年）20年一遇的高温极值在整个区域内均将升高,东北地区增幅最大;低温极值将增大,中心位于内蒙古、新疆及青藏高原南麓;降水极值也将普遍增大。气温和降水极值在21世纪末期的增加幅度均比中期要大。在未来全球变暖背景下,中国地区极端高温事件将明显增多,面积增大;极端低温事件将大幅度减少,面积减少;强降水事件也将增多,面积不断扩大。     

The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.     

全球气候变暖背景下索马里急流变化的预估研究

索马里急流的变化对亚洲季风和气候变动具有重要的影响,未来索马里急流到底会如何演变?如何受全球变暖的影响?针对这个问题,文中利用IPCC第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的多个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估了多个模式在当前气候(20C3M)条件下对夏季低空索马里急流的模拟能力;预估模式在SRESA2排放情景下对21世纪(2010-2099)的索马里急流变化.研究结果表明,18个模式在现代气候条件下对索马里急流有较好的模拟能力;18个模式的集合平均结果预测夏季索马里低空急流在21世纪的变化过程是:初期(2010-2040)增强至减弱,中期(2050-2060)增加至最强,末期(2070-2090)减至最弱.与现代气候条件模拟结果相比,夏季索马里低空急流在未来气候变暖背景条件下是趋于减弱的过程,在21世纪末期最弱.研究还表明了夏季低空索马里急流的变化幅度与全球平均气温的变化幅度是一个非线性的关系,各模式对二者关系的描述存在不确定性,鉴于索马里急流对印度季风和东亚季风及中国气候的重要性,索马里急流的变化规律和未来演变是科学界特别需要深入研究的问题.     

Regional climate changes as the factors of impact on the objects of construction and infrastructure

Considered are the changes in the climate impact on the objects of construction and infrastructure on the territory of Russia. The focus is on the changes in the characteristics of daily air temperature and precipitation expected by the middle of the 21st century, which are of high importance in terms of the building design. The assessment of expected changes is based on the results of ensemble computations using the MGO gobal climate model and the embedded regional model (MGO RCM) with the horizontal resolution of 25 km. Along with the ensemble-averaged estimates of changes in applied climate parameters, an uncertainty of estimates associated with the natural climate variability is analyzed using the data of numerical experiments. The attention is drawn to the most significant effects of climate changes which should be taken into account when developing the measures for adapting the construction sector in Russia.     

Possible Climate Change Impact on River Runoff in the Different Regions of the Globe

The possibility ofassessing changes in river runofftill 2100 for a number oflarge river basins of the world for a wide range of natural conditions is investigated. The assessment is based on the SWAP (Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants) model using meteorological data as inputs which were simulated with different general atmosphere–ocean circulation models in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. The possible climatic changes in annual runoff for some rivers by the end of the 21st century are compared with the natural interannual variability of river runoff caused by weather noise.     

山西陆面过程对A1B排放情景下全球变化趋势的响应

山西地处气候过渡带,气候敏感、生态脆弱,在全球气候变暖背景下其陆面物理过程受气候波动影响十分明显。本文利用NCAR CCSM IPCC AR4陆面分量模式(CLM)20世纪气候模拟(20C3M)和21世纪SRES A1B排放情景下的模拟结果,对山西省21世纪(2001~2099年)与20世纪(1901~1999年)陆面能量和水文变量进行了对比分析。结果显示:(1)模式模拟出山西地区未来地面温度的空间及时间分布特征。未来山西省地面温度呈明显上升趋势,上升速率冬季大于夏季。空间上,增温幅度冬季自北向南递减,夏季自西向东递减;(2)未来山西省陆面各分量空间上,净辐射通量西北增幅大于东南,降水率和径流率则与其相反,潜热通量与蒸发率一致,西南部增加幅度大,土壤含水率冬夏分布相反,感热通量呈下降趋势,西南下降幅度大;时间上,净辐射通量、潜热通量均表现出不同程度的上升趋势,土壤热通量冬季上升,夏季下降;地表水循环的各分量均呈增加趋势。     

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Economic Development of the Russian Arctic in the 21st Century

The problem of increasing the informativeness of climate projections in the Russian Arctic in order to meet the current economy needs is considered. The detailed estimates are presented of changes for the most important specialized indicators of the thermal and moisture regimes which characterize climatic impacts on the economic development of the Russian Arctic in the 21st century. The calculations are based on the data of numerical experiments with the regional climate model which were conducted for the Arctic region in the framework of the international CORDEX project. The high resolution of the model (50 km) and the consideration of mesoscale factors helped to detect significant spatial differences in the estimates of changes in the analyzed parameters which should be taken into account when adapting to climate change at the regional level.     

The taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus: Propagation under climate change conditions in the 21st century

The contemporary climatic habitat of the taiga tick, the dangerous carrier of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease, is computed using the model. The expected climate changes will cause the reduction of the climatic habitat of Ixodes persulcatus in its western part and the expansion in the northern and eastern directions. By the late 21st century, this species can inhabit almost the whole north of the European part of Russia and the most part of Siberia up to 70° N. At the same time, I. persulcatus will disappear from Baltic countries, Belarus, the northern part of Ukraine, and the western areas of Russia. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till 2040 suggest climate changes that will affect the location of climatic habitat approximately at the same scale. The differences will start being manifested in 2041–2060 and will become the most pronounced in the last 20 years of the 21st century. Expected climate changes will favor the significant expansion of the climatic habitat of the taiga tick in the 21st century and the potential formation of the zones of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease in the regions, where these diseases are not currently observed.     

Projections of Climate Change over China for the 21st Century

1. IntroductionUnder the background of global warming in the20th century, it was also getting warmer of 0.2-0.7°C/100 yr over China for the last 100 years, espe-cially for the last 50 years (0.6-0.9°C/50 yr) based onthe instrumental observations (Wang and Gong, 2000;Ren et al., 2004; Zhao et al., 2004). In another way, itwas noticed that the concentration of greenhouse gasesand sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere increased by thehuman emissions. Some new evidences indicated thatthe greenho…     

高分辨率区域气候变化降尺度数据对京津冀地区高温GDP和人口暴露度的集合预估

基于RCP4.5（中等温室气体排放）情景下5个全球模式模拟结果的降尺度数据,及SSP2社会经济路径下的GDP和人口密度数据,对21世纪京津冀地区（北京、天津和河北的统称）未来2021—2040年（近期)、2046—2065年（中期)、2080—2099年（末期）的高温GDP和人口暴露度进行多模式集合预估。结果表明：未来京津冀地区热事件将增加,21世纪末期京津冀东南部平原和沿海地区的闷热事件、中部平原地区的高温事件出现频率明显增加。GDP和人口暴露度大值区主要分布在北京、天津、保定、石家庄和邯郸等经济发达、交通便利、人口聚集的城市及其周边地区。21世纪京津冀地区的GDP暴露度区域平均值持续增加,21世纪末期多年平均值约为参照时段的58.9倍;各城市的区域平均值也表现出一致增加。京津冀地区人口暴露度区域平均值在21世纪中期达到最大,为参照时段的2.3倍;北京、秦皇岛、张家口、承德和唐山人口暴露度区域平均值将持续增长,其他城市人口暴露度区域平均值在21世纪中期达到最大。GDP暴露度的变化主要取决于非线性因子,且其贡献率随时间逐渐增加,到21世纪末期可达70.9%。21世纪近期和中期人口暴露度的变化主要取决于非线性因子,气候因子在末期占主导地位。     

How much the warming in Russia agrees with the output of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models?

Climate variability parameters and air temperature trends in Russia, derived from observational data, are compared with those derived from climate modeling in the second half of the 20th-early 21st century, using the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ensemble. The computation results from these models were used in the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is demonstrated that the ensemble averaging allowed us to efficiently filter the internal climate variability and get relatively stable estimates of trends. As a whole, for Russia, these estimates are in good agreement with the observational data, both for a year on average, and in individual seasons. The comparison of model and observed air temperature trends on a regional scale turns out to be irrelevant in a number of cases because of a high inadequacy of trend estimates derived from the observational data.     

Climate Simulation and Future Projection of Precipitation and the Water Vapor Budget in the Haihe River Basin

The climatological characteristics of precipitation and the water vapor budget in the Haihe River basin (HRB) are analyzed using daily observations at 740 stations in China in 1951-2007 and the 4-time daily ERA40 reanalysis data in 1958-2001. The results show that precipitation and surface air temperature present significant interannual and interdecadal variability, with cold and wet conditions before the 1970s but warm and dry conditions after the 1980s. Precipitation has reduced substantially since the 1990s, with a continued increase of surface air temperature. The total column water vapor has also reduced remarkably since the late 1970s. The multi-model ensemble from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has capably simulated the 20th century climate features and successfully reproduced the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature. Unfortunately, the models do not reproduce the interdecadal changes. Based on these results, future projections of the climate in the HRB are discussed under the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2. The results show that precipitation is expected to increase in the 21st century, with substantial interannual fluctuations relative to the models’ baseline climatology. A weak increasing trend in precipitation is projected before the 2040s, followed by an abrupt increase after the 2040s, especially in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase by 10%-18% by the end of the 21st century. Due to the persistent warming of surface air temperature, water vapor content in the lower troposphere is projected to increase. Relative humidity will decrease in the mid-lower troposphere but increase in the upper troposphere. On the other hand, precipitation minus evaporation remains positive throughout the 21st century. Based on these projection results, the HRB region is expected to get wetter in the 21st century due to global warming.     

典型相关分析方法对21世纪江淮流域极端降水的预估试验

利用1961—1990年江淮流域逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和HadCM3 SRES A1B情景下模式预估资料,采用典型相关分析统计降尺度方法,评估降尺度模型对当前极端降水指数的模拟能力,并对21世纪中期和末期的极端降水变化进行预估。结果表明：通过降尺度能够有效改善HadCM3对区域气候特征的模拟能力,极端降水指数气候平均态相对误差降低了30%～100%,但降尺度结果仍然在冬季存在湿偏差、夏季存在干偏差;在SRES A1B排放情景下,该区域大部分站点的极端强降水事件将增多,强度增大,极端强降水指数的变化幅度高于平均降水指数,且夏季增幅高于冬季;冬季极端降水贡献率（R95t）在21世纪中期和末期的平均增幅分别为14%和25%,夏季则分别增加24%和32%。