用雨量和雨强计算次降雨侵蚀力

降雨侵蚀力反映由降雨引起土壤侵蚀的潜在能力 ,是定量预报土壤流失的重要因子。降雨动能与最大 30min雨强的乘积EI30 是最常用的降雨侵蚀力指标 ,但计算复杂 ,且资料难以获得。本文从利用易获取的气象资料计算降雨侵蚀力出发 ,通过对全国 13个代表性小区侵蚀资料和 12个气象站降雨资料的分析 ,确定我国降雨侵蚀力指标为雨量和最大 10min雨强的乘积PI10 ,其精度与常用的侵蚀力指标EI30 相当。为方便对比分析并统一单位 ,进一步建立了指标PI10 与EI30 的转换关系 :(EI30 ) =0 1773(PI10 )。这样可充分利用覆盖全国的气象站整编资料 ,计算全国降雨侵蚀力 ,为水土保持规划服务     

文山州降雨侵蚀力时空分布规律浅析

降雨是导致土壤侵蚀的主要动力因素,降雨侵蚀力反映降雨引起土壤侵蚀的潜在能力。利用文山州内21个雨量代表站月降雨资料,估算文山州降雨侵蚀力,对该地区降雨侵蚀力的年内分布、年际变化特征和空间分布变化规律进行分析。结果表明：文山州降雨侵蚀力空间分布基本与降雨一致,山区为高值区,坝区为低值区;降雨侵蚀力主要集中在汛期（5～10月）,各月的差异大于降雨量的差异;文山州降雨侵蚀力长期变化为略减小趋势但不显著,年际变化较年降雨量年际变化显著。     

用小时降雨资料估算降雨侵蚀力的方法

降雨侵蚀力是进行土壤流失量预报的基本因子,EI₃₀是迄今得到广泛应用的定量指标,但它的计算需要降雨过程资料,使其推广应用受到很大限制。用自动气象观测提供的高精度等间隔降雨资料,代替降雨过程资料,是估算降雨侵蚀力指标的首选。国际上对此已有研究,发现有很大的地区差异性。为此,本文在水蚀严重的中国东部季风区选择5个代表站点,共456次降雨过程资料,建立了用60 min等间隔雨量资料估算次降雨侵蚀力的计算方法。研究结果表明:直接用60 min等间隔资料计算的降雨侵蚀力指标值,与用降雨过程资料计算的结果相比,降雨动能E差异较小,主要差异体现在最大30 min雨强I₃₀上,由此导致降雨侵蚀力指标EI₃₀的差异也十分明显。利用自动气象观测小时雨量资料计算降雨侵蚀力指标值,通过公式(EI₃₀)_bp=1.730(EI₃₀)₆₀转换,可以较精确地估算全国降雨侵蚀力,与用日、月和年降雨量资料的估算值相比,能够提高土壤侵蚀预报精度。     

Intra-event characteristics of extreme erosive rainfall on Mauritius

Mauritius is a volcanic island with a raised interior where extreme rainfall events dominate rainfall erosivity. Intra-event characteristics of the 120 highest erosive events at six selected locations between 2004 and 2008 were analyzed to provide the first detailed intra-storm data for a tropical island environment. On Mauritius, spatial variation is evident in the characteristics of extreme erosive rainfall recorded at the stations, with a noticeable increase in rainfall depth, duration, kinetic energy, and erosivity of extreme events with altitude. Extreme events in the raised interior (central plateau) show high variability of peak intensity over time as well as a higher percentage of events in which the greatest intensity occurs in the latter part of the event. Intra-event distribution of rainfall in the interior of the island shows that rainfall there has a higher potential to exceed infiltration rates as well as the ability to generate high peak runoff rates and cause substantial soil loss. The study suggests that even though within-event rainfall characteristics are complex, they have implications for soil erosion risk, and that, in tropical island environments, the within-storm distribution of rainfall should be incorporated in soil-loss modeling.     

乌鲁木齐1991-2010年降雨特征分析

 利用1991—2010年5—9月乌鲁木齐市气象站降水量资料,分析了乌鲁木齐近20 a降雨特征。结果表明,逐小时降水量和降水频次呈现较为一致的日变化特征,均以20时以后至翌日11时左右为高值区,在下午16时达最低值;1 h降水频次最多的是量级≤1.0 mm的降水,其次是1.1 mm≤R1≤3.0 mm,但1.1 mm≤R1≤3.0 mm量级的降水贡献率最高,其次是R1≤1.0 mm。不同量级降水过程均有较为明显的年际差异,小雨过程发生的频次最多,其次为中雨、大雨和暴雨过程。前半夜为小雨、中雨和大雨过程最易发生时段,下午为暴雨过程最易发生时段。小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨过程发生最多的时段分别为7月中旬、5月中旬、5月中下旬、5月上中旬与7月中旬及8月下旬。短时性降水(1~3 h)主要集中在前半夜,持续4~6 h和7~9 h降水多集中在前半夜到后半夜,持续10~12 h及以上的降水多发生在下午至后半夜。20 a来雨日年际变化不明显,后10 a和前10 a相比,暴雨日数有所增加,而其他量级及总雨日均减少。     

黑河流域典型生态系统的降雨截留特征——基于高时间分辨率的土壤水分数据（英文）

Rainfall interception is of great significance to the fully utilization of rainfall in water limited areas.Until now,studies on rainfall partitioning process of typical ecosystems in Heihe River Basin,one of the most important inland river basins in China,is still insufficient.In this study,six typical ecosystems were selected,namely alpine meadow,coniferous forest,mountain steppe,desert,cultivated crop,and riparian forest,in Heihe River Basin for investigation of the rainfall interception characteristics and their influencing factors,including rainfall amount,duration,and intensity,based on the gross rainfall and high temporal resolution soil moisture data obtained from 12 automatic observation sites.The results show that the average interception amount and average interception rate of the six ecosystems are significantly different: alpine meadow 6.2 mm and 45.9%,coniferous forest 7.4 mm and 69.1%,mountain steppe 3.5 mm and 37.3%,desert 3.5 mm and 57.2%,cultivated crop 4.5 mm and 69.1%,and riparian forest 2.6 mm and 66.7%,respectively.The rainfall amount,duration,and intensity all had impact on the process of rainfall interception.Among these three factors,the impact of rainfall amount was most significant.The responses of these ecosystems to the rainfall characteristics were also different.Analyzing rainfall interception with high temporal resolution soil moisture data is proved to be a feasible method and need further development in the future.     

贡嘎山东坡磨西河流域泥石流暴发的临界雨量值初探

在实地调查和前人研究的基础上,查明了贡嘎山东坡磨西河流域内泥石流沟的分布状况、暴发规律及危害特征等;并根据近20年来流域内发生的典型泥石流灾害,分析了泥石流发生前的降雨过程,发现磨西河流域内泥石流发生的当日雨量和前6 d有效雨量之间具有明显的幂函数关系,据此以泥石流发生的当日雨量和前6 d有效雨量为指标,初步探讨了磨西河流域内泥石流暴发的雨量值。     

ENSO对韶关市1951~2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究

选取1951~2013年韶关市分月降雨量数据,采用月降雨侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力,分析ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）对韶关市降雨侵蚀力的影响。研究表明：① 韶关市降雨侵蚀力年际变化和年内变化较大,总体呈现波动上升趋势;② 降雨侵蚀力与赤道太平洋SST距平值呈现极显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随SST距平值增加呈现先增加后递减的趋势。ENSO冷暖事件发生时降雨侵蚀力较小,在其它土壤侵蚀因素不变的条件下,此时期的土壤侵蚀相对较轻;③ 降雨侵蚀力与SOI存在显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随着SOI增加而减小;④ 降雨侵蚀力与MEI呈现极显著的正相关关系。     

An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides

This study proposes a novel method that combines a deterministic slope stability model and a statistical model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. The method first uses the deterministic model to derive the rainfall rate critical to induce slope failure for each land unit. Then it calculates the difference between the critical rainfall threshold and estimated rainfall intensity. Using the difference and estimated rainfall duration as explanatory variables, the method derives a logit (integrated) model to compute landslide occurrence probabilities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, the study used radar rainfall estimates and landslides associated with a typhoon (tropical cyclone) to develop the integrated model and the same types of data associated with another typhoon to validate the model. The model had a modified success rate of 84.0% for predicting landslides and stable areas, and model validation yielded a modified success rate of 87.4%. Both rates were better than those from the critical rainfall model. The main advantage of the integrated model lies in its use of rainfall variables that are not included in calculating the critical rainfall. Also, as a probabilistic model, the integrated model is better suited for decision-making in watershed management. This study has advanced the method for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.     

中国短历时和长历时暴雨对总暴雨贡献的空间差异性研究（1961-2015）

采用1961-2015年659站日值降水数据,以持续1d和持续2d及以上暴雨作为短和长历时暴雨标准,分析不同历时暴雨变化趋势,结果表明,中国总降雨、总暴雨和短历时暴雨从东南沿海向西北内陆依次呈“增-减-增”的分布特征,且整体以增加趋势的站点占主导,而长历时暴雨则呈现出“增-减”的分布特征,且整体以减少趋势的站点占主导,并且检测出中国自东北向西南存在一条变干带。同时中国总暴雨对总降雨、长历时暴雨对总暴雨的贡献呈现出“东南高-西北低”的分布特征,而短历时暴雨对总暴雨的贡献呈现出“东南低-西北高”的分布特征。中国总暴雨对总降雨、短历时暴雨对总暴雨贡献的变化趋势呈现出“增-增减镶嵌-增”的分布特征,且以增加趋势的站点占主导,而长历时暴雨在东部沿海地区呈现出增减镶嵌的趋势,而西北内陆地区呈略微减少趋势,且以减少趋势的站点占主导,也检测出自东北向西南存在一条气候过渡带并与上述变干带基本重合。     

云南省雨量站网评价结果浅析

根据雨量站网评价结果，结合云南省的实际情况，从雨量站的高程控制情况、河流分布与雨量站网的匹配状况、区域代表站及小河站的配套雨量站需求、面雨量计算的需求、水情信息报汛配套站需求等方面，采用面平均相关法、经验公式法等分项评价方法，对现状雨量站网的密度和满足程度作客观评价，提出云南省雨量站网的设站目标为2690～3208站，为雨量站网规划和站点布设提供科学依据。     

一种基于GIS的预报降雨栅格动态生成方法初探

中国大部分地区的降雨监测点位布设稀少且分布不均,特别是大区域的降雨监测和预报存在着不准确现象。利用GIS技术,以都江堰市为研究区,结合降雨随海拔变化规律与实测降雨数据,初步建立了降雨随海拔高度变化的二次曲线计算公式和等高线对应转折拐点降雨图层,参考对比自定义降雨矩阵点图层生成的预报降雨栅格效果,最后在基于AE开发的山地平原过渡区土地生态安全预警系统中,依据等高线拐点降雨图层动态生成研究区降雨栅格,作为该系统下预警指标动态监测模块的主要指标因子,初步解决了研究区降雨监测点位少的情况下,全区预报降雨可视化程度低和局部预报准确度不高的问题,有效地提高了降雨预报的准确性和直观性。     

民勤白刺枝条形态对人工增雨的响应

为研究全球变化情景下降雨格局变化对干旱区植被的影响,以甘肃民勤的典型荒漠植被白刺灌丛为研究对象,在生长季内人工模拟不同增雨梯度（+0%、+25%、+50%、+75%和+100%多年平均降水量）,分析白刺枝条形态特征的变化规律。结果表明,白刺枝条各形态指标间存在很好的相关性。7-9月,75%和100%增雨的枝条长度显著大于0%增雨,枝条新生叶片数只在8月表现为100%增雨显著大于0%增雨。8-9月,100%增雨的营养枝基部直径显著大于0%增雨,成熟叶片数和干物质重量在增雨梯度下各月均不显著。花枝的基部直径在7-9月均表现为100%增雨显著大于0%增雨,7月100%增雨的花枝成熟叶片数显著大于0%增雨,而花枝干物质重量在6-8月表现为100%增雨显著大于0%增雨。针对降雨格局变化,白刺不同枝条形态特征的调节适应机制之间存在着一定的内在协调性。     

Linear regression relationships between NDVI, vegetation and rainfall in Etosha National Park, Namibia

Estimations of 10-day interval green vegetation cover and biomass, 10-day interval cumulative rainfall, as well as annual rainfall are compared with 10-day interval and rainy season NDVI and MVC using linear regression analysis. Raw data were smoothed by averaging and removing dry season outliers. Results indicate that the ability of NDVI and MVC to predict green vegetation cover, cumulative rainfall and annual rainfall is poorer for raw data than for averaged, outlier-removed data. It is recommended that the standard error of the raw data predictions are used to indicate the fundamental error in these relationships, and that the equations of the averaged, outlier-removed data are used to indicate the fundamental strength of NDVI or MVC in predicting vegetation or rainfall. The practical use of integrated rainy season MVC images are discussed.     

1961—2015年雅鲁藏布江流域降雨侵蚀力

降雨是土壤侵蚀的主要动力,也是风水蚀复合区沙漠化的主要驱动力。研究降雨侵蚀力时空变化对雅鲁藏布江流域土壤侵蚀的监测、评估、预报和治理具有重要意义。利用1961—2015年雅鲁藏布江流域8个气象站日降雨量气象资料,采用趋势系数、气候倾向率、MK检验等研究方法对雅鲁藏布江流域降雨侵蚀力时空变化进行分析。结果表明:雅鲁藏布江流域年降雨侵蚀力平均值为758.1 MJ·mm·hm^-2·h^-1,变差系数Cv值为0.29,趋势系数r值为0.3140。空间分布呈现由东向西逐渐递减的特点,东部可达2 000 MJ·mm·hm^-2·h^-1以上,最西部仅为200MJ·mm·hm^-2·h^-1。雅鲁藏布江流域年降雨侵蚀力总体呈波动上升趋势,其中嘉黎和波密站年降雨侵蚀力上升趋势明显,日喀则、泽当站年降雨侵蚀力呈下降趋势。通过MK检验及滑动T检验得知,流域内年降雨侵蚀力在1982年发生突变,年侵蚀性降雨突变不显著。雅鲁藏布江流域年降雨侵蚀力与侵蚀性降雨相关性显著。     

山区地形对暴雨的影响

本文分析了各种不同的自然条件下山区地形对暴雨的影响，指出山区复杂下垫面的热力和动力作用对暴雨有触发、加强或削弱、消亡的影响，在不同的区域地理背景下，地形的影响各不相同，在相同的地理背景下，不同的地形形态对暴雨的影响也有较大差异，地形性强迫抬升和辐合是触发暴雨和使之加强的重要机制，地形性辐射和下沉区对应暴雨的低频区，背区波暴雨过程在西北、华北的冷锋天气过程中较为多见，夏季山区局地对流性暴雨过程在凌晨     

热带气旋降水模拟研究进展

中国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一,准确的降水模拟对于开展热带气旋灾害风险评估有重要意义。本文从热带气旋灾害风险评估的视角,将降水模拟分为基于极值理论的降水极值模拟、基于站点的降水时空模拟和基于热带气旋路径的降水事件模拟3大类;根据风险评估对降水模拟的需求,从模型构建、发展及其特点等方面对3类模型进行分析评述;进而提出面向风险评估的热带气旋降水模拟,应兼顾降水模拟的一般性和热带气旋暴雨模拟的特殊性,平衡处理降水模拟结果的准确性、统计量的可靠性和计算量问题。以极值理论对降水极值模拟为基础,充分发挥降水时空模拟在处理长时间降水序列中的优势,并加强热带气旋降水的理论研究,进一步完善热带气旋降水事件的模拟模型。     

干旱荒漠区绿洲边缘典型固沙灌木的降水截留特征

在民勤绿洲边缘,降水对维持固沙灌木持续稳定发挥固沙功能具有重要作用。本文选择民勤绿洲边缘3种主要固沙灌木为研究对象,观测了降雨条件下降水穿透量和冠层截留量,分析了降水穿透量和冠层截留量与降雨量之间的关系以及截留率与降水强度之间的关系,比较了不同灌木群落的降水截留特征。结果表明,不同灌木的降水截留存在明显差异,梭梭、柽柳、生长良好白刺、衰退白刺冠层最大截留量和截留容量分别为0.6 mm、0.6 mm、0.4 mm、0.3 mm和0.8 mm、0.8 mm、0.5 mm、0.2 mm;在两年总降水量255.3 mm条件下,梭梭、柽柳和生长良好白刺3种灌木群落冠层截留损失分别为44 mm、88 mm和32 mm,占降水总量的16.6%、33.1%和12.0%;当降雨强度<0.8 mm·h-1,梭梭和柽柳降水截留率随降水强度增加均呈递减趋势;当降水强度>0.8 mm·h-1时,梭梭冠层截留量与降水量的比率基本稳定在0.2～0.3之间,柽柳在0.3～0.4之间;当降水强度<0.5 mm·h-1,生长良好白刺灌丛的降水截留率随降水强度增加呈下降趋势;当降雨强度>0.5 mm·h-1,生长良好白刺灌丛截留率基本维持在0.1～0.2之间;降雨强度>0.4 mm·h-1时,衰退白刺截留率稳定在0.05～0.1之间。     

泥石流预报中前期有效降水量的确定

前期有效降水量是泥石流预报的重要参数之一,对不同类型泥石流的形成有不同的影响形式,对土力类泥石流的形成主要是影响泥石流形成区土体的土壤含水量.在每次前期降水增加的土壤含水量和其有效降水量遵循相同衰减规律,以及每次前期降水的有效降水量和其增加的土壤含水量衰减过程都是相互独立的假设条件下,通过分析土壤含水量随时间的变化关系,可以得到前期有效降水量与前期降水量随时间的变化关系,从而可以确定前期有效降水量.通过对云南蒋家沟降水和土壤含水量的实际观测,对这个关系进行了分析研究,并利用最小二乘法得出了前期有效降水量的计算公式.     

Rainfall Variability in Murang'a District, Kenya: Meteorological Data and Farmers' Perception

This study examines meteorological data and farmers' perception of rainfall in the Central Highlands of Kenya. Rainfall data from five meteorological stations during the period from 1947 to 1996 were analysed on an annual and a monthly basis. Daily data exist from 1957 and analyses from 1957 to 1996 were done on a daily basis. Discussions were held with 60 farmers about rainfall and its variation. Ten of these farmers were interviewed with a questionnaire about rainfall. Analysing annual precipitation and rain periods gave no clear trends over the study period. Results from analysing the growing seasons for maize, the main annual crop, and periods during which maize plants are sensitive to drought showed decreasing trends in rainfall amounts for the study period. Results from the interviews indicate that most of the farmers think rainfall has decreased over the last 40 years. Farmers'perceptions of rainfall are related to periods when the main food and annual crop require water and not to the periods scientists often analyse, i.e. annual and rain periods. More research and better advice from agricultural extension workers to farmers are necessary to enable this area to sustain itself in sufficient food production if the decreasing trends during the growing seasons and drought-sensitive periods continue.