Oslo: Past,present, future

The article develops a theme from Sund & Isachsen (1942) dealing with Oslo's urban expansion. The author discusses population growth rates by zone and district of the expanding agglomeration from the 1920's up to the present. The figures demonstrate an almost classical outward expansion with a corresponding typical decrease in the city proper and the inner zone. The changing location of large offices and factories is indicated. An attempt is made to break down employment figures to show quaternary activities. The recent changes in planning attitudes are briefly discussed, and Oslo of the future envisaged.     

Ecological-hydrological processes in arid environment: Past,present and future

Ecohydrology, aiming to study the interactions between terrestrial ecological systems and hydrological cycles as well as their impacts on water management, has been an emerging interdisciplinary research field since the 20th century. It hosts both natural and human regulated processes that are potentially coupled in complex ways. Understanding the ecological-hydrological processes, the fundamental mechanisms and the connections between them is critical since these processes are not isolated but integrated to impact basin- scale hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of a larger river system, especially in arid environment where water resources are considered to be the source of life. Thus, research on ecological-hydrological processes in arid environment is not only a scientific focus area but also important to sustainable development. Research projects and initiatives involved in observation, measurement, modeling and data assimilation have been well-developed for those purposes over the past 20 years. This review summarizes the historical development of ecohydrology science in China and the state-of-the-art tools available in the research framework. Five grand scientific challenges are listed as prospects and exciting opportunities for the scientific community. To advance the current ecological-hydrological processes research, scientists from multidisciplinary backgrounds (such as geography, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, geochemistry and ecology), need to unite to tackle the many open problems in new dimensions.     

Range and livestock production in the Monte Desert,Argentina

This article reviews and analyzes the available information on range and livestock production in the Monte Desert. Cow–calf operations, goats for meat, and sheep for wool are the dominant production systems under continuous grazing. Rest-rotational grazing systems improved the efficiency of the current cow–calf production. Forage resources are primarily composed of perennial grasses and woody species. Rain-use efficiency for the total vegetation ranged from 3.9 to 4.8 kg DM ha^?1 year^?1 mm^?1. Carrying capacity showed a broad range: 18.7, 4.5–64.5, and 21.6–89.3 ha AU^?1 in the north, central, and south portions of the Monte, respectively. Mean crude protein (CP) content of grasses varied from 8.4 to 10.3 (wet season) and 7.1–3.7% DM (dry season) in the central west and Patagonia, respectively. Grasses predominated in the cattle diet, while the sheep diet was highly diverse because they ate most of the available plant species, and there was no unanimity as to the fact that goats are strictly browsers. Livestock diseases have lower prevalence indices than those recorded in other areas of the country. The high variability in carrying capacity values could be attributed to differences in rangeland condition and to the different methods used for its estimation. The CP levels in forage could meet cattle requirements provided that a proper-stocking rate were used. The most promising species for land rehabilitation are Opuntia, Atriplex spp., Eragrostis curvula and Cenchrus ciliaris. Priorities for future research should include topics such as assessment of the carrying capacity for most of the areas and nutrient content of the components of livestock diet, the livestock intake values, the economic feasibility of the use of complementary feeds and the development of seeding technology for valuable forage resources as Trichloris crinita, among others.     

Past imperfect, future tense: Archaeology and development

Archaeological sites are valuable nonrenewable resources and they are being destroyed rapidly by modern development projects of all kinds, worldwide. The contextual information in these sites could tell surprising and valuable stories of human behavior over an enormous sweep of time and might contribute to a better future. Archaeologists’ experience of site destruction and their recent efforts to work with local communities toward alternatives to site destruction may offer examples for others concerned with the treatment of nonrenewable resources     

Seed reserves in the central Monte Desert, Argentina: implications for granivory

It has been suggested that lower rates of granivory in South American warm deserts compared to their North American counterparts arose from a reduction of seed reserves in the former owing to the extinction of argyrolagid marsupials. We measured seed reserves in two habitats of the central Monte Desert in an attempt to detect such seed decline, but to no avail. After moderate rainfall, maximum seed standing crops reached 16,000 and 23,000 seeds m⁻²in shrublands and open forests, respectively. Under the canopy of trees and shrubs there were 19,000 and 37,000 seeds m⁻²; whereas in exposed areas there werec. 10,000 seeds m⁻²in both habitats. Seed banks in other South American semi-arid areas showed similar values. Total grass seeds as well as those presumably preferred by ants also seem to be similar in both continents. Hence, granivory in South America, as has been already reported for Australia, is lower than in North America in spite of the great similarity of seed bank sizes. Moreover, argyrolagids were unlikely seed-hoarding granivores, therefore some other reason than argyrolagid extinction should be sought to explain the lack of specialized seed-eating mammals, and the smaller overall seed consumption rates in South American deserts.     

准噶尔盆地的气候变化与荒漠环境研究

通过对北疆及准噶尔盆地的气候变化与荒漠环境效应研究认为,该区一是受气候变化的影响,其次是受地形和人类活动的影响。在气候变化和环境效应研究中,该地区有着不可替代的区域特征和学科意义。尤其是该区域受西风环流控制和受太平洋季风的影响较少,因此具有季风气候和地中海气候的双重性。因此,该研究区荒漠环境的正逆发展过程不仅受降水和温度的重大影响,而且季节性积雪和高山雪冰融水为荒漠植物的萌发与生长提供了有效的水资源。但是,该地区的生态环境十分脆弱,人类的过度开发和扰动对其的影响也非常严重。所以,加强气候变化与环境效应的相互影响研究,保护干旱生态的平衡发展,再造秀美山川,是该地区今后研究的重要任务和发展方向。     

古尔班通古特沙漠现代沙漠环境与气候变化

根据北疆降水与温度的时空变化进行了湿润指数计算和时间序列与周期分析,论述了北疆气候的变化规律与特征。同时,根据沙漠环境与气候变化的相互依从关系,利用卫星影像图和野外实地调查订证的方法,讨论了古尔班通古特沙漠特殊气候环境条件下的正逆发展过程。分析表明,北疆气候自50年代以来虽然温度升高,降水略有增加,但是气候变化呈现为暖干过程;并且古尔班通古特沙漠的流沙化面积不断地增加,沙漠化现象日趋严重。同时,气候变化是造成该沙漠流沙化面积增加的主要原因,人为因素起到了诱发和加速作用。总之,无论哪种诱发过程所导致的沙漠化,如果不采取积极的防御措施,都将给人类生活与生存环境带来极大危害。     

Land changes in Slovakia: Past processes and future directions

The aim of this study is to bring a unique overview of past, current and plausible future land use development in Slovakia. The study assessed land change processes and their spatial determinants related to the most significant socio-political periods that have shaped the former socialist country over the past 30 years, namely, socialism (1980–1990), postsocialism (1990–2000), EU accession (2000–2006), EU membership (2006–2012). Using boosted regression trees, the impact of different biophysical, socioeconomic, policy and distance-based factors was evaluated on land transitions, categorised as urbanisation, agricultural intensification and extensification, afforestation, deforestation and forest disturbance (natural and management-induced). Results show significant shifts in the landscape management associated with the institutional changes, especially in the postsocialist period.Agricultural intensification, which dominated the socialist period, was in subsequent periods substituted by afforestation and agricultural extensification. High relative annual rates of forest disturbance have dominated land-use change over the past 30 years, while deforestation was a minor land-use change during the late socialist period. Urbanisation has played a significant role and changed considerably through the studied periods: high urbanisation rates under socialism, a massive decline in the postsocialism and EU accession periods and increasingly high urbanisation rates during the EU membership period.Taking into account national and international (EU related) demands, we assessed land use development for 2040 within five different future land use scenarios. These scenarios were characterised as either extensions of current development trends, or as developments along axes that target globalisation or regionalisation, and more or less intervention. Results show that afforestation is by far the land-change process that will have the greatest impact on future Slovakian landscapes, mostly in rural areas. Among changes in agriculture, all scenarios uniformly suggest that extensification will exceed intensification mostly at the cost of arable land. In addition, urban areas will expand at the expense of arable land, particularly in the accessible city hinterlands.     

Cattle grazing effects on annual plants assemblages in the Central Monte Desert,Argentina

Plant assemblages' dynamics have been studied to evaluate the influence of different environmental factors. The aim of our work was to assess the effect of a disturbance in the form of livestock grazing on annual plants, in a South American desert. We tested the exclusion of cattle grazing by comparing the composition of annual plants in three major vegetation types within a MaB Reserve in the Monte Desert of Argentina, with those of an adjacent grazed field. Sampling was conducted in two consecutive years that differed in precipitation. We established three sampling sites within each vegetation type at the reserve and the grazed field. Transects were set to assess plant cover, abundance, and richness. Theoretically, changes in diversity are explained by changes in one of its components: species richness. Species richness of annual plants was not different between the grazed and ungrazed sites. However, plant cover and diversity were lower in grazed sites, whereas abundance increased. Owing to a strong species-specific effect, we propose that it is evenness the main parameter involved in diversity dynamics in the heterogeneous vegetation mosaic of the Monte desert. Finally, vegetation types (spatial heterogeneity) and rainfall regime (temporal heterogeneity) greatly interacted with grazing effects. We endorse the idea that rapid responses of annual plant assemblages to changes in rainfall conditions coupled with herbivore control, might result in a restoration pathway for degraded arid landscapes.     

新疆沙尘暴源区的气候与荒漠环境变化

根据新疆地区50年来的气候变化以及人类活动的影响,阐述了新疆沙尘暴源区气候与荒漠环境变化。结果表明,新疆地区的气候由暖干向暖湿发展。自20世纪70年代中期以来,暖湿过程非常明显,特别是新疆南疆与北疆的气候变化特点和高山与盆地的气候变化差异以及湖泊水域面积的变化,都明显地反映了干旱区域气候变化的敏感性,并且也反映了新疆区域气候与中国中、东部气候变化的差异性。由于气候的波动变化和人类活动的干扰,使荒漠环境也在不同区域受到不同程度影响,尤其是干旱地区的降水、大气湿润程度和下垫面状况都直接影响着沙尘暴的发生和发展。20世纪80年代后期以来,温度的突变是造成环境恶化、灾害增多的主要原因之一,同时也反映出干旱内陆区是气候变化过程中的敏感反应区。     

Reindeer husbandry/hunting in Russia in the past, present and future

The dynamic state of reindeer husbandry in northern Russia during the 20th century was studied as a basis for predicting the consequences of the current drastic changes taking place there. Similar forms and methods of reindeer husbandry were used with different frequencies and effectiveness throughout the century. In the future reindeer husbandry will conform to market requirements, landscape features and national traditions. In some areas, the more sophisticated methods of management developed in conjunction with large-scale, highly productive reindeer husbanry, could be lost and a subsistence economy, including hunting, could predominate.     

民勤荒漠区气候变化对全球变暖的响应

 近年来,全球变暖已成为一个全世界广泛关注的问题。那么,荒漠气候是如何响应全球变暖的呢？以中国西北典型荒漠地区民勤为例进行了分析。结果表明,民勤荒漠区年平均气温的抬升速率高于20世纪全球气温抬升速率和中国近100 a气温抬升速率;2—6月和11—12月月平均气温表现为不同程度增温趋势,其中,2月增温最明显;从20世纪全球最暖的80—90年代开始极端最高气温变幅明显增大,极端最低气温间歇式下降,极端最高气温和极端最低气温的不稳定性增大;在变暖的同时,降水量表现为增加趋势;1956年以来当地沙尘暴发生日数表现为减少趋势,其原因主要是1961年以来当地的空气相对湿度增大,暖湿气候是导致沙尘暴减少的主要原因之一。     

腾格里沙漠周边地区1960-2012年气候变化特征

根据腾格里沙漠周边地区9个气象站点1960-2012年逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量、平均相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速的观测资料,利用线性回归、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了该区1960-2012年气候变化特征。结果表明:1960-2012年,腾格里沙漠周边地区年平均气温以0.34 ℃/10a的速率呈显著上升的趋势,并于1989年发生显著突变;从季节变化来看,冬季升温幅度最大,达0.52 ℃/10a;年平均最高、最低气温均呈显著上升的趋势,但是年平均最低气温的升温速率0.44 ℃/10a明显大于最高气温升温速率0.25 ℃/10a,增暖的不对称性导致年平均气温日较差以0.18 ℃/10a的速率显著减小。年降水量以1.08 mm/10a的速率增加,但变化趋势不显著,四季降水量均有不同程度的增加;湿润指数的变化亦不显著,年、春季、夏季和秋季湿润指数均有减小趋势,冬季湿润指数有增加趋势;年、季平均风速皆呈显著减小的趋势,年平均风速减小的速率为0.15 m·s^-1·(10a)^-1,日照时数以5.6 h/10a的速率呈不显著的增加趋势,各季节日照时数有不同的变化趋势,春季和夏季日照时数呈增加趋势,而秋季和冬季的日照时数呈减小趋势。     

Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic: overview and novel analyses

Sparse stations and serious measuring problems hamper analyses of climatic conditions in the Arctic. This paper presents a discussion of measuring problems in the Arctic and gives an overview of observed past and projected future climate variations in Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Novel analyses of temperature conditions during precipitation and trends in fractions of solid/liquid precipitation at the Arctic weather stations are also outlined. Analyses based on combined and homogenized series from the regular weather stations in the region indicate that the measured annual precipitation has increased by more than 2.5% per decade since the measurements started in the beginning of the 20th century. The annual temperature has increased in Svalbard and Jan Mayen during the latest decades, but the present level is still lower than in the 1930s. Downscaled scenarios for Svalbard Airport indicate a further increase in temperature and precipitation. Analyses based on observations of precipitation types at the regular weather stations demonstrate that the annual fraction of solid precipitation has decreased at all stations during the latest decades. The reduced fraction of solid precipitation implies that the undercatch of the precipitation gauges is reduced. Consequently, part of the observed increase in the annual precipitation is fictitious and is due to a larger part of the "true" precipitation being caught by the gauges. With continued warming in the region, this virtual increase will be measured in addition to an eventual real increase.     

Vegetation heterogeneity in Monte Desert ecosystems: A multi-scale approach linking patterns and processes

We review the current state of research on vegetation heterogeneity in the Monte Desert at scales varying from landscape to intra-patch. Different factors are related to vegetation heterogeneity at every scale. At a coarse scale (i.e. landscapes and communities) vegetation heterogeneity is commonly determined by abiotic factors, whereas biotic interactions usually influence fine scale (patch, intrapatch) heterogeneity. Communities are distributed at the landscape scale according to differences in precipitation, topography and soil attributes. On the other hand, there is evidence that the spatial pattern of plant patches within communities is determined by runon –runoff processes, although biotic influences such as grazing can induce changes in the spatial pattern of patches when plant cover is strongly reduced. In the same way, at patch and intrapatch scales, biotic interactions (i.e. plant –plant interactions, grazing) determine the size and the species composition of plant patches as well as the distribution of species inside plant patches. However, the mechanisms operating behind such biotic interactions at small scales are commonly related to plant-induced changes in the physical environment. We also found evidence of cross-scale interactions, feedbacks, and non-linear effects such as those induced by grazing disturbance. Our analysis showed some regional differences in patterns and processes related to vegetation heterogeneity along the Monte Desert which can be ascribed to climatic and taxonomic variation among areas. Although information about vegetation heterogeneity and its causes and consequences in the Monte Desert is abundant, some areas where knowledge is scarce are detailed.     

The past,present, and future of population geography in China: Progress,challenges and opportunities

Population geography (PopGeo), although a sub-discipline of human geography, should have been well developed in China in light of its national population size and unique demographic issues, regional socio-economic development, and biophysical differences. Yet it typically lags behind the development of its parent disciplines, especially demography and geography. Specifically, PopGeo in Chinese higher education is still at a low level in terms of the three major aspects of disciplinary development: academic majors for higher education, academic conferences, and journals. The research content of PopGeo in China has focused on the growth, composition, change, distribution, and carrying capacity of population at the meso- and macro-spatial scales. As the most populated country in the world, questions about how and why the population changes, where the population settles and migrates to, its maximum carrying capacity, and how to guide sound development of population matter to society and the economy, are always important topics in the PopGeo studies in China. In contrast, some new population phenomena such as human space–time behaviors (commuting, remittances, and friends’ interaction), popular in the scientific community abroad, are not fully investigated at the micro-level. Presently, PopGeo in China may face both challenges and opportunities because of the adjustment of fertility policies and implementation of national new urbanization plans at the national level. It is this occasion that calls for a state-of-the-art review of the development of PopGeo since the 1980s, the turning point of an increasing number of PopGeo studies in China. We aim to reveal the current status of PopGeo in China to the world, and shed light on its further study.     

巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区近50 a来气候变化特征

 利用巴丹吉林沙漠周边9个气象站的1960—2009年逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量、平均相对湿度和日照时数及1960—2008年逐月平均风速的观测资料,运用线性回归、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了该区近50 a来气候变化特征。结果表明,近50 a来,巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区年平均气温以0.40 ℃/10a的速率显著升高;四季平均气温的升高亦很显著,以冬季的升温速率最大;年、季节平均最高气温和平均最低气温均呈显著升高趋势;年、季平均日较差则显著减小,且以最低气温的升温速率大于最高气温的升温速率为特点。年降水量以0.87 mm/10a的速率呈不显著增加趋势;各季节降水量变化略有差异且均不显著,春季降水量略有减少,夏、秋和冬季略有增加。湿润指数的变化不明显,总体来看,年和冬季湿润指数略有增大,春、夏和秋季湿润指数略有减小。年日照时数以34.8 h/10a的速率显著增加,各季节日照时数亦均有增加趋势,其中春季增加最为明显。年平均风速以-0.092 m·s-1·(10a)-1的速率呈显著减小趋势;各季节平均风速均显著减小,以冬季的减小速率最大。     

Community resilience,natural hazards,and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?

ABSTRACT

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.