Complexity, self-organisation and variation in behaviour in meandering rivers

River meanders are natural features on the surface of Earth that present some degree of regularity of form. They range from being highly dynamic to being stable under present conditions. Conventional theory is that meanders develop to an equilibrium form which is related to discharge and sediment load. Other research has demonstrated that many highly active meanders exhibit a continuous evolution over time and a non-linearity in rate of development. Ideas of autogenesis and of self-organised criticality as being an explanation of some meander changes have been proposed. In this paper data from rivers around the world are examined for further evidence of autogenic, self-organised or non-linear behaviour through analysis of change in sinuosity over time for reaches and change in individual bend form, particularly bend curvature and bend elongation. Some examples do exhibit trends of increasing sinuosity over time and a few show limits from which large decreases occur. Several case studies show non-linearity of behaviour and increasing complexity of form. Other case studies, however, do not exhibit such trends. Phase space plots are used to help uncover emergent behaviour but show a variety of patterns. The example of a reach in which multiple cut-offs occurred is analysed for mechanisms of self-organisation of the planform and in the pool-riffle pattern. Riffles are more closely spaced and also more transient in the more rapidly changing and higher sinuosity parts of the channel. Hypothetical trajectories of different meander behaviour, including for bedrock meanders, are plotted but the challenge remains to uncover the conditions for occurrence and for divergence of tendencies to stability and instability. Identification of attractors and phase space of behaviour of different meandering systems offer the potential for application to sustainable channel management.     

Small-scale vegetation dynamics in semi-arid steppe in Inner Mongolia

Small-scale vegetation dynamics were followed for ecotones and in uniform stands inArtemisia-dominated steppe vegetation under grazing and when recovering from heavy grazing. Species composition was followed annually for 5 years in 1 m²and 0·25 m²plots for (1) presence–absence; (2) density; and (3) biomass.More rapid vegetation dynamics, in terms of change of type of vegetation and distance moved in DCA species space between sampling occasions, were observed in smaller plots and in early seral stages, where species were few and alpha diversity low. Only the plots recently protected from grazing showed a directional vegetation change; those protected for more than 3 years and those under continued grazing showed, at this scale, non-directional dynamics.     

2015年中国生态系统生态破坏损失核算研究

利用遥感影像数据,结合第八次全国森林资源清查和第二次全国湿地资源调查以及草地监测报告,对中国2015年森林、草地和湿地三大生态系统因人类不合理利用导致的生态破坏损失进行核算。核算结果显示：① 2015年中国生态破坏损失约为2.38万亿元,占GDP比重的3.3%。其中,森林生态破坏损失约为2 437.5亿元,占全部生态破坏损失的10.2%;草地生态破坏损失约为3 112.1亿元,占比为13.1%;湿地生态破坏损失约为18 269.6亿元,占比76.7%。② 中国生态破坏损失主要分布在西部地区,区域空间差异大,青海、湖南、四川、黑龙江、内蒙古、江苏等省份的生态破坏损失都大于1 000亿元。③ 中国生态破坏损失主要来自气候调节和水流动调节服务损失。2015年中国气候调节服务损失量为17 451.8亿元,占全部生态破坏损失的73.3%;水流动调节服务损失量为4 234.6亿元,占比为17.8%。     

Variations in Ageing in Home and Ageing in Neighbourhood

This paper takes a new approach to investigating people who age in place. It provides an explanation for why people age in a place that can be useful in government and corporate planning. Our research investigates the principal factors that drive the decision of a rising number of older Australians to age in place. Many older people wish to age in place rather than move in with their children or be institutionalised. They wish to continue to be active in their local communities and maintain their existing social ties. The concept of ageing in place covers two distinct groups: those who are able to stay in their current dwellings and age in home and those who move house but remain in their local community and age in neighbourhood. Age-friendly home modification is a response to ageing in home, whereas the provision of institutional healthcare and the provision of age-suitable housing to facilitate downsizing are associated with ageing in neighbourhood. Using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data, this research examines the mobility decisions of older Australians and identifies the major determinants of a decision to age in place. This research argues for a better understanding of ageing in place, differentiating between those ageing in home and those ageing in neighbourhood.     

东江流域枯水期最长连续无降水日数的变化特征

利用1956-2008年东江流域各降雨站点逐日降雨资料,建立枯水期最长连续无降水日数时间序列（LCDD）,采用经验模态分解（EMD）方法分析该序列的多尺度振荡变化及趋势变化,应用Mann-Kendall法识别突变点,采用R／S分析方法探讨变化趋势的持续性特征,并初步分析LCDD变化的可能原因。结果表明：近53年来,最长...     

榆林沙区飞播试验中几个技术问题的探讨

本项试验于1974-1981年,在陕西省榆林地区流沙地上进行。本文就飞播固沙植物种选择、飞播种子处理技术、植物群体固沙的原理及飞播量的计算,飞播立地条件的选择,鼠、兔、虫、病害的防治,飞播造林的投资及效益估算等项技术予以了较深入地探讨,为推广榆林飞播治沙的经验提供理论依据。     

Dendrochronology in Jordan

Dendrochronology is a valuable tool for the study of past climate and increases our knowledge of climate variability beyond the short period covered by instrumental data. Two annual tree-ring width chronologies were developed for northern Jordan (Pinus halepensis and Quercus aegilops), one chronology for Carmel Mountain, Israel (Pinus halepensis), and one chronology for southern Jordan (Juniperus phoenicia). The results of our study show that the northern site chronologies are significantly correlated, but the northern and southern sites are not. A relatively high correlation was shown between October–April precipitation and a Pinus halepensis chronology, and between October–May precipitation and Quercus aegilops, both in the north. October–May precipitation was reconstructed for the time span AD 1600 to 1995 from the Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology. The longest reconstructed drought, defined as consecutive years below a threshold of 80% of the 1946–1995 mean observed October–May precipitation, was 4 years, compared with 3 years for the 1946–95 instrumental data.     

Changes in growing season in the Northeastern United States

ABSTRACT

Changes in growing season length (GSL) are of concern for agricultural, phenological, economic, epidemiological, and bioclimatological reasons. This research identifies spatial and temporal changes over the last several decades in GSL, along with the day-of-year of the last spring freeze and first autumn freeze, for the northeastern United States – a region particularly susceptible to such changes due to the large population and intense economic activities. Results suggest that growing season has significantly increased in length since 1980 as compared to prior to 1980, and both spatial and temporal variation in GSL has decreased for the region over time. Changes to GSL for this region are driven more by a shift in the first autumn freeze date than the last spring freeze date. The areas of greatest increase in GSL in the pre- vs. post-1980 period tend to be in the high elevations, near large water bodies, and near the largest cities. Results will assist environmental planners as they prepare mitigation and adaptation strategies amid a changing environment.     

宁夏中卫滨河沙漠湿地恢复策略研究

在对宁夏中卫滨河沙漠湿地的退化现状、胁迫因子进行分析的基础上,提出了湿地恢复策略,望能为黄河中游湿地的生态恢复提供思路和借鉴。     

城中村流动人口的时间利用以及生活 活动时空间结构 ——对北京5个城中村的调查

基于北京5个城中村的问卷调查,从个体行为的角度系统研究了城中村流动人口日常生活活动的时间利用特征以及时空间结构。研究发现:工作日中工作活动是支配活动,对其他活动时间起到制约作用,休息日娱乐时间占据主导地位,男女在时间分配特征上体现出较大不同;城中村流动人口工作日和休息日活动的时空间结构在性别上表现出明显的一致性;在时间上,休息日大部分活动集中在自家;家中娱乐活动出现较强晚间高峰;在性别上,男性比女性外出娱乐活动多,出行距离更远,女性家务活动多于男性。人群个体日常活动的规律性可以为掌握城市人群生活空间结构、制定城市规划等提供重要参考。     

Geostatistical analysis of variations in soil salinity in a typical irrigation area in Xinjiang, northwest China

Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of soil salinity is tremendously important for a variety of agronomic and environmental concerns in arid irrigation areas. This paper reviews the characteristics and spatial and temporal variations of soil salinization in the Ili River Irrigation Area by applying a geostatistical approach. Results showed that:(1) the soil salinity varied widely, with maximum value of 28.10 g/kg and minimum value of 0.10 g/kg, and was distributed mainly at the surface soil layer. Anions were mainly SO_4~(2-) and Cl~-, while cations were mainly Na~+ and Ca~(2+);(2) the abundance of salinity of the root zone soil layer for different land use types was in the following order: grassland cropland forestland. The abundance of salinity of root zone soil layers for different periods was in the following order: March June September;(3) the spherical model was the most suitable variogram model to describe the salinity of the 0–3 cm and 3–20 cm soil layers in March and June, and the 3–20 cm soil layer in September, while the exponential model was the most suitable variogram model to describe the salinity of the 0–3 cm soil layer in September. Relatively strong spatial and temporal structure existed for soil salinity due to lower nugget effects; and(4) the maps of kriged soil salinity showed that higher soil salinity was distributed in the central parts of the study area and lower soil salinity was distributed in the marginal parts. Soil salinity tended to increase from the marginal parts to the central parts across the study area. Applying the kriging method is very helpful in detecting the problematic areas and is a good tool for soil resources management. Managing efforts on the appropriate use of soil and water resources in such areas is very important for sustainable agriculture, and more attention should be paid to these areas to prevent future problems.     

Leveraging parallel spatio-temporal computing for crime analysis in large datasets: analyzing trends in near-repeat phenomenon of crime in cities

ABSTRACT

Crime often clusters in space and time. Near-repeat patterns improve understanding of crime communicability and their space–time interactions. Near-repeat analysis requires extensive computing resources for the assessment of statistical significance of space–time interactions. A computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used to evaluate the statistical significance of the space-time patterns underlying near-repeat events. Currently available software for identifying near-repeat patterns is not scalable for large crime datasets. In this paper, we show how parallel spatial programming can help to leverage spatio-temporal simulation-based analysis in large datasets. A parallel near-repeat calculator was developed and a set of experiments were conducted to compare the newly developed software with an existing implementation, assess the performance gain due to parallel computation, test the scalability of the software to handle large crime datasets and assess the utility of the new software for real-world crime data analysis. Our experimental results suggest that, efficiently designed parallel algorithms that leverage high-performance computing along with performance optimization techniques could be used to develop software that are scalable with large datasets and could provide solutions for computationally intensive statistical simulation-based approaches in crime analysis.     

鸭绿江下游江心洲资源与鸟类保护

鸭绿江下游有江心洲53个,其中中方有13个。江心洲是鸟类南北迁徙的脚踏石,是许多动物繁殖的斑块,是城市重要的景观资源,同时也是中朝两国间的重要战略资源。中方许多大型岛屿都已被开发成工业园区、住宅、高尔夫球场或旅游度假村,旅游开发使岛上原有高耸、茂密的植被遭到破坏,相关珍稀鸟类消失,公众利益变成私有财产,暂时的经济税收取代了长久的生态价值。建议加强江心洲及相关各类资源的保护,实施森林岛屿的生态重建和修复,注重存在价值及非消耗性利用,树立保护即利用的辩证唯物主义资源价值观,使江心洲成为镶嵌在鸭绿江上的绿色宝石。     

中国沙漠化研究的进展

中国沙质、砾质荒漠和沙漠化土地的面积达149万km², 占国土面积15%。1959年中国科学院治沙队成立到今天的沙漠所, 经历了卅个春秋。沙漠科学的研究也从空白发展成一个新学科的成长过程。为我国沙漠科学积累了丰富的资料, 培养了一支有着丰富经验又有一定理论水平的科技队伍。具有独立解决经济建设中提出的沙漠及沙漠化治理问题的能力, 并为全球沙漠化研究工作和治理实践, 作出应有的贡献。1988年6月5日世界环境日时, 联合国环境规划署授予中国科学院兰州沙漠研究所为全球先进单位称誉。我国沙漠科学研究的发展过程, 可归纳为四个阶段: 1959-1965年, 查明沙漠情况, 探索沙漠治理方法阶段。对我国主要沙漠和沙漠化土地进行综合考察究沙区自然条件与资源, 沙丘特征与风沙运动规律。1966-1977年, 以沙害治理为中心, 根据国民经济建设需要, 开展专题研究阶段。如沙区铁路修建的有关问题和沙区水土资源开发利用和开发后自然条件的变化等。1978-1983年, 以土地沙漠化问题为中心开展综合研究。干旱、半干旱地带土地沙漠化现状、发生发展过程, 变化趋势与预测, 整治措施等。1984年以后, 主要是加强对土地沙漠化变化趋势与预测, 以及整治措施的研究, 积极开展国际学术交流, 走向世界。1)建设不同自然地带沙漠化(风沙化)治理研究示范基地系统网络。2)开展半湿润、湿润地带风沙化问题的研究。3功口强对沙漠化监测和预则工作。4)在国际学术活动方面。从举办沙漠化学术讨论会、培训班、合作研究, 进而派遣专家组帮助发展中国家从事沙漠化治理研究工作。并与前述工作相适应, 出版了一系列研究成果和图件。总之, 我国沙漠研究是以干旱地带沙质荒漠的自然条件综合研究, 逐渐发展到半干旱、半湿润地带生态环境中沙漠化与风沙化问题的研究。为我国国土整治中风沙治理提供防治途径和措施。今后的研究工作, 应着重在强烈发展和严重沙漠化地区研究整治措施。建立不同自然地带整治沙漠化土地模式。达到环境健全发展和合理生态系统管理。对潜在和正在发展中的沙漠化土地发展趋势。加强监测和预测。进而提出预防措施。总结沙漠化治理经验和教训, 编著教材培训科技力量。     

青藏高原年楚河流域径流变化特征分析

基于青藏高原河流年楚河1961-2000年天然径流量资料,选用Mann-Kendal分析方法和小波分析等方法对年楚河径流变化特征进行研究。结果表明：年楚河流域径流量年际变化相对平稳,年内分配极不均衡。丰水季节与枯水季节径流量相差悬殊,6-9月径流量占全年65%,最大月径流量占全年百分比达24.56%;在1961-2000年中,年楚河径流量呈现显著增加趋势,在1985年左右径流量发生突变性增加;日喀则和江孜两站5-8年左右时间尺度的周期震荡最显著,其次10-15年左右时间尺度的周期震荡也较为显著,两站径流量变化的主周期分别为5年和7年,次周期分别为13和12年。年楚河流域气温升高引起冰川融水增加可能是年楚河径流量增加的主要原因。     

长株潭城市群旅游业环境友好型发展评价研究

区域旅游业环境友好型发展是旅游业可持续发展的重要一环,对建设“两型社会”至关重要.长株潭城市群在建设“两型社会”过程中非常重视旅游业的发展,如何科学评价旅游业环境友好型发展成为学术界研究的新方向和旅游管理部门的重要工作之一.在理解环境友好的内涵和文献回顾的基础上,从生态环境、社会环境和经济环境3个层次建立评价指标体系,并运用AHP法确定指标权重,最终设计出长株潭城市群旅游业环境友好型发展评价模型.通过实证,深入剖析了旅游经济这个复杂系统,验证了指标及评价模型的合理性和可操作性.研究发现,长株潭旅游业属于弱友好水平,对此为其旅游业环境友好型发展提出了可行的建议.     

Spatio-temporal trends in precipitation and their implications for water resources management in climate-sensitive Nepal

As one of the world's most water-abundant countries Nepal has plenty of water, yet resources are unevenly distributed, both spatially and temporally. Limited accessibility and poorly managed water resources continue to inhibit socioeconomic development. Poverty levels are high across the nation (57% of the population lives below the international poverty line) and population expansion, coupled with rapid environmental change, is thought to be placing substantial pressure on water resources; an irrefutable asset for sustaining livelihoods and an essential contributing factor for alleviating poverty. Precipitation is a vital water resource for much of the rural population, 80% of which are dependent on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods, and fluctuations in which can give rise to changing states of poverty. Here we provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation time-series data for Nepal and discuss the contribution of precipitation change to water resources management for this land-locked Himalayan nation. We show that precipitation totals have predominantly remained stable; precipitation extremes and variability indicate widespread decrease; and no clear variation in monsoon onset date is reported. Based on these results, we suggest that water resources management needs to focus on population and environmental pressures, rather than specifically mitigating for precipitation change.     

盐湖水氯镁石制备高纯镁砂的研究进展

对水氯镁石制备高纯镁砂的方法及工艺原理进行了综述,阐述了高纯镁砂制备过程中的关键技术问题,认为树脂法因具有高选择性、高容量应用于水氯镁石较为适宜,氨法具有低成本、工艺简单、环境友好等优点而适用于青海水氯镁石制备高纯镁砂工艺。借助一定的技术手段降低前驱物的烧结温度,对降低高纯镁砂生产成本、节约能源具有积极的意义。     

20世纪中国气候变化研究

Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century,climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C.More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China,North China and Northeast China,and the warming in winter is most significant.Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century,regional differences are very distinct.In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,precipitation increased,while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased.Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO,PDO,and the others,but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions,and land use.The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China's climate change and its main causes,since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.     

Conflict in Common: Heritage-making in Cape York

The outstanding natural and cultural values of Cape York have been acknowledged for decades, but those decades have been characterised by deep conflict. Non-government organisation intervention in local politics has seen a forceful push for nominating some or all of the Cape York Peninsula as a World Heritage Site. We illuminate the authorised heritage discourse at work in heritage-making, and highlight contested issues of ownership, governance, authenticity, and value. These themes contribute to the possibility of marginalising the voices of local people who wish to contribute to heritage-making in Cape York. Politics infuses all aspects of heritage-making in Cape York, and the specific experiences on Cape York reflect larger political processes occurring in World Heritage discourse. The paper draws on interviews undertaken in May and June 2012.