Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.     

The reduction effects of mangrove forest on a tsunami based on field surveys at Pakarang Cape,Thailand and numerical analysis

Using an integrated approach including satellite imagery analysis, field measurements, and numerical modeling, we investigated the damage to mangroves caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape in Pang Nga Province, Thailand. Comparing pre- and post-tsunami satellite imagery of the study area, we found that approximately 70% of the mangrove forest was destroyed by the tsunami. Based on field observations, we found that the survival rate of mangroves increased with increasing stem diameter. Specifically, we found that 72% of Rhizophora trees with a 25–30 cm stem diameter survived the tsunami impact, whereas only 19% with a 15–20 cm stem diameter survived. We simulated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using the nonlinear shallow-water wave theory to reproduce the tsunami inundation flow and investigated the bending moment acting on the mangrove trees. Results of the numerical model showed that the tsunami inundated areas along the mangrove creeks, and its current velocity reached 5.0 m s⁻¹. Based on the field measurements and numerical results, we proposed a fragility function for mangroves, which is the relationship between the probability of damage and the bending stress caused by the maximum bending moment. We refined the numerical model to include the damage probability of mangrove forests using the obtained fragility function to investigate the tsunami reduction effect of mangrove forest. Under simple numerical conditions related to the mangrove forest, ground level, and incident wave, the model showed that a mangrove forest of Rhizophora sp. with a density of 0.2 trees m⁻² and a stem diameter of 15 cm in a 400 m wide area can reduce the tsunami inundation depth by 30% when the incident wave is assumed to have a 3.0 m inundation depth and a wave period of 30 min at the shoreline. However, 50% of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a 4.5 m tsunami inundation depth, and most of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a tsunami inundation depth greater than 6 m. The reduction effect of tsunami inundation depth decreased when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 3 m, and was mostly lost when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 6 m.     

Tsunami Inundation Modeling and Mapping using ALTM- and CARTOSAT-Derived Coastal Topographic Data

Coastal topography is the principal variable that affects the movement of the tsunami wave on land. Therefore, land surface elevation data are critical to a tsunami model for computing extent of inundation. Elevation data from India's remote sensing satellite CARTOSAT-1 are available for the entire Indian coastline, while elevation data collected using Airborne Laser Terrain Mapper (ALTM) are only available for selected sections of the coastline. This study was carried out to evaluate the suitability of CARTOSAT-1 and ALTM elevation data sets in the tsunami inundation modeling. Two areas of the coastal Tamil Nadu that were severely affected during the December 2004 tsunami and surveyed extensively for mapping the extent of inundation were selected as the study areas. Elevation data sets from ALTM, CARTOSAT-1 and field measurement collected using Real-time Kinematic GPS (RTK-GPS) were compared for these areas. The accuracy of ALTM and CARTOSAT-1 data, the significance of interpolation methods and data used on model outputs were studied. The analysis clearly revealed that the elevation accuracy of CARTOSAT-1 data (+/?2m) was much lower than ALTM data (+/?0.6m). However, it was found that despite the differing elevation accuracy, both ALTM and CARTOSAT-1 can be used to produce tsunami inundation maps for open coasts with an accuracy of 185 m (2 grid cells) at 75% and 50% confidence level, respectively.     

Observations of Tsunami Impact on the Coast of Kerala, India

The tsunami generated by the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake had a devastating effect on some parts of Kerala coast, which is a coast located in southwest India. Results of post-tsunami field surveys carried out to understand the changes in coastal morphology and sediment characteristics in the worst affected Kayamkulam region of Kerala coast are documented in this study. Analysis of offshore bathymetric data indicates the shifting of depth contours towards shore, indicating erosion of sediments and deepening of innershelf due to the tsunami. Depth measurement along the backwater (T-S canal) in the hinterland region indicates siltation due to the inundation of the canal.     

Observations of Tsunami Impact on the Coast of Kerala,India

The tsunami generated by the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake had a devastating effect on some parts of Kerala coast, which is a coast located in southwest India. Results of post-tsunami field surveys carried out to understand the changes in coastal morphology and sediment characteristics in the worst affected Kayamkulam region of Kerala coast are documented in this study. Analysis of offshore bathymetric data indicates the shifting of depth contours towards shore, indicating erosion of sediments and deepening of innershelf due to the tsunami. Depth measurement along the backwater (T-S canal) in the hinterland region indicates siltation due to the inundation of the canal.     

浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析

采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。     

Analysis of the Tsunami of December 26, 2004, on the Kerala Coast of India—Part III: Inundation and Initial Withdrawal

During the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004, specific observations were made by our survey team about the arrival times of several tsunami waves, their amplitudes, maximum extent of horizontal inundation on land and initial withdrawal of the ocean. Here the observations on the horizontal inundation and initial withdrawal are presented and briefly discussed.     

Numerical Simulation of Tsunamis on the Tamil Nadu Coast of India

The State of Tamil Nadu was the most affected region in India during the tsunami of December 26, 2004, in the Indian Ocean, in terms of loss of life and damage. Numerical simulation was made for three tsunamis, the December 26, 2004, event, the Sumatra tsunami of 1833, and a hypothetical tsunami originating in the Andaman-Nicobar region. Since inundation is not included in these simulations, the tsunami amplitudes were deduced at the 10m depth contour in the ocean, off several locations on the coast of Tamil Nadu. The computed amplitudes appear reasonable as compared to known tsunami amplitudes from past events.     

Optical measurements of tsunami inundation through an urban waterfront modeled in a large-scale laboratory basin

This paper presents optical measurements of tsunami inundation through an urban waterfront in a laboratory wave basin. The physical model was constructed at 1:50 scale and was an idealization of the town of Seaside, Oregon. The fixed-bed model was designed to study the initial inundation zone along an urban waterfront, such that the flow around several large buildings could be observed. This paper presents an analysis of the optical measurements made with two overhead video cameras, focusing on tracking the leading edge of the tsunami inundation through the urban waterfront and quantifies the accuracy of the algorithm used to track the edge. The results show that the methodology provides high-resolution information in both time and space of the leading edge position, and that these data can be used to quantify the influence of large macro-roughness features on the tsunami inundation processes in laboratory settings. The overall effect of the macro-roughness was to decrease the bore propagation speed relative to the control section with no macro-roughness. The bore speed could be reduced by as much as 40% due to the presence of the macro-roughness relative to the control section.     

Analysis of the necessity and possibility of tsunami early warning on the Black-Sea coast

The catastrophic tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Southeast Asia revealed the necessity of creating tsunami early warning systems in the regions of the World Ocean where these systems are still absent but the potential hazard of tsunami generation exists. The Black Sea is one of these regions. We present the general characteristic of the tsunami hazard in the Black-Sea region and describe the most probable zones of tsunami generation, the specific features of tsunami propagation, and the parameters of tsunamis according to the data of observations and the results of numerical simulations. We also discuss the possibility of tsunami early warning on the basis of the operative data provided by the network of hydrometeorological and seismological observation stations existing in this region. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 57–66, September–October, 2008.     

Analysis of the Tsunami of December 26, 2004, on the Kerala Coast of India—Part III: Inundation and Initial Withdrawal

During the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004, specific observations were made by our survey team about the arrival times of several tsunami waves, their amplitudes, maximum extent of horizontal inundation on land and initial withdrawal of the ocean. Here the observations on the horizontal inundation and initial withdrawal are presented and briefly discussed.     

Modeling the near-field effects of the worst-case tsunami in the Makran subduction zone

As a first step towards the development of inundation maps for the northwestern Indian Ocean, we simulated the near-field inundation of two large tsunami in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). The tsunami scenarios were based on large historical earthquakes in the region. The first scenario included the rupture of about 500 km of the plate boundary in the eastern MSZ, featuring a moment magnitude of M_w 8.6. The second scenario involved the full rupture of the plate boundary resulting from a M_w 9 earthquake. For each scenario, the distribution of tsunami wave height along the coastlines of the region is presented. Also, detailed runup modeling was performed at four main coastal cities in the region for the second scenario. To investigate the possible effect of splay fault branching on tsunami wave height, a hypothetical splay fault was modeled which showed that it can locally increase the maximum wave height by a factor of 2. Our results showed that the two tsunami scenarios produce a runup height of 12-18 m and 24-30 m, respectively. For the second scenario, the modeled inundation distance was between 1 and 5 km.     

2010 年智利和2011 年日本地震海啸在我国东南沿岸诱导的波流特征及危险性分析

本文基于有限断层模型和OKADA 位错模型计算海表变形场作为初始条件,利用MOST 海啸数值模型模拟分析了2010年智利和2011 年日本地震海啸在我国东南沿海地区的海啸传播特征,海啸波模拟结果与观测数据吻合较好。重点研究分析了沈家门港口海域的海啸波流特征及其诱导的涡旋结构。研究结果表明：尽管两次事件的海啸源位置及破裂特征完全不同,但海啸波流在我国东南沿岸的分布特征大致相似;另外相对于海啸波幅而言,港湾中海啸流具有更强的空间差异性,港口入口、岬角地形处和岛屿间水道中往往会有强流存在。尽管这两次越洋海啸均未能在我国东南沿海引发淹没情形,但通过数值计算发现局部均存在超过3 m/s 以上的强流,因此进行海啸预警及风险管理时应综合考虑海啸波流的影响。     

海啸波传播的线性和非线性特征及近海陆架效应影响的数值研究

浅水方程被广泛应用于海啸预警报业务及研究,而针对线性浅水方程与非线性浅水方程在不同海区水深地形条件下的适用范围、计算效率问题是海啸研究人员急需了解的。本文应用基于浅水方程的海啸数值预报模型就海啸波在南海、东海传播的线性、非线性特征以及陆架对其传播之影响进行了数值分析研究。海啸波在深水的传播表征为强线性特征,此时线性系统对海啸波幅的模拟计算具有较高的精度和效率,而弱的非线性特征及弱的色散特征对海啸波幅的预报影响甚微,可以忽略不计。海啸波传播至浅水大陆架后受海底坡度变化、海底粗糙度等因素影响,波动的非线性效应迅速传播、积累,与线性浅水方程计算的海啸波相比表现出较大差异,主要表现为:在南海区,水深小于100m时,海啸波首波以后的系列波动非线性特征比较明显,两者波幅差别较大,但首波波幅的区别不大,因此对于该区域在不考虑海啸爬高的情况下,应用线性系统计算得到的海啸波幅也可满足海啸预警报的要求;在东海区由于陆架影响,海啸波非线性特征明显增强,水深小于100m区域,首波及其后系列波波幅均差异较大,故在该区域必须考虑海啸波非线性作用。本文就底摩擦项对海啸波首波波幅的影响进行了数值对比分析,结果表明:底摩擦作用对海啸波首波波幅影响仅作用于小于100m水深。最后,该文通过敏感性试验,初步分析了陆架宽度及陆架边缘深度对海啸波波幅的影响,得出海啸波经陆架传播共振、变形后,海啸波幅的放大或减小与陆架的宽度及陆架边缘水深有关。     

Wave Dispersion Study in the Indian Ocean-Tsunami of December 26, 2004

A numerical study which takes into account wave dispersion effects has been carried out in the Indian Ocean to reproduce the initial stage of wave propagation of the tsunami event that occurred on December 26, 2004. Three different numerical models have been used: the nonlinear shallow water (nondispersive), the nonlinear Boussinesq, and the full Navier-Stokes aided by the volume of fluid method to track the free surface. Numerical model results are compared against each other. General features of the wave propagation agreed very well in all numerical studies. However some important differences are observed in the wave patterns, i.e., the development in time of the wave front is shown to be strongly connected to the dispersion effects. Discussions and conclusions are made about the spatial and temporal distribution of the free surface reaffirming that the dispersion mechanism is important for tsunami hazard mitigation.     

Wave Dispersion Study in the Indian Ocean-Tsunami of December 26, 2004

A numerical study which takes into account wave dispersion effects has been carried out in the Indian Ocean to reproduce the initial stage of wave propagation of the tsunami event that occurred on December 26, 2004. Three different numerical models have been used: the nonlinear shallow water (nondispersive), the nonlinear Boussinesq, and the full Navier-Stokes aided by the volume of fluid method to track the free surface. Numerical model results are compared against each other. General features of the wave propagation agreed very well in all numerical studies. However some important differences are observed in the wave patterns, i.e., the development in time of the wave front is shown to be strongly connected to the dispersion effects. Discussions and conclusions are made about the spatial and temporal distribution of the free surface reaffirming that the dispersion mechanism is important for tsunami hazard mitigation.     

Erosion and sedimentation in Kalpakkam (N Tamil Nadu, India) from the 26th December 2004 tsunami

Laterally extensive sand sheets deposited by the 26th December 2004 Asian tsunami provide a valuable modern analogue for comparison with wash over deposits of unknown origin. In many places on the east coast of India, distinct deposits of marine sand drape the landscape and overlie the muddy soils of the coastal plain. This paper discusses detailed measurements of coastal topography, tsunami flow height, and deposit thickness made at Kalpakkam, India. Five transects were examined in detail to assess the sedimentology and spatial distribution of the tsunami deposit. Near the mean water line, the tsunami eroded approximately 10–25 cm of sand from the beach and berm. At Kalpakkam the sand sheet deposited by the tsunami begins 25 m from the shore extending 420 m inland where it becomes thin and patchy approximately 30 m from the limit of inundation. In some cases, the deposit consists of 2 to 4 normally graded units, with coarse sand near the base and fine sand at the top, a characteristic observed in many tsunami deposits worldwide. In many places, the deposits also contain numerous thin laminated units, a characteristic usually associated with storm over wash. The presence of the laminated beds is indicative of the complexity of tsunami sedimentation on the coast. Such observations are essential to the formation of definitive facies models for palaeo-overwash studies that are capable of distinguishing between sediments deposited by storms or tsunami.     

Tsunami inundation modeling in constructed environments: A physical and numerical comparison of free-surface elevation,velocity, and momentum flux

A laboratory benchmark test for tsunami inundation through an urban waterfront including free surface elevation, velocity, and specific momentum flux is presented and compared with a numerical model (COULWAVE). The physical model was a 1:50 scale idealization of the town Seaside, Oregon, designed to observe the complex tsunami flow around the macro-roughness such as buildings idealized as impermeable, rectangular blocks. Free surface elevation and velocity time series were measured and analyzed at 31 points along 4 transects. Optical measurements of the leading bore front were used in conjunction with the in-situ velocity and free surface measurements to estimate the time-dependent specific momentum flux at each location. The maximum free surface elevation and specific momentum flux sharply decreased from the shoreline to the landward measurement locations, while the cross-shore velocity slowly decreased linearly. The experimental results show that the maximum specific momentum flux is overestimated by 60 to 260%, if it is calculated using the each maximum values of the free surface elevation and cross-shore velocity. Comparisons show that the numerical model is in good agreement with the physical model at most locations when tuned to a friction factor of 0.005. When the friction factor decreased by a factor of 10 (from 0.01 to 0.001), the average maximum free surface elevation increased 15%, and the average cross-shore velocity and specific momentum flux increased 95 and 208%, respectively. This highlights the importance of comparing velocity in the validation and verification process of numerical models of tsunami inundation.     

Numerical modeling of the long surface waves scattering for the 2011 Japan tsunami: Case study

The March 11, 2011, megaquake caused a catastrophic tsunami recorded throughout the Pacific. This paper presents an analysis of the sea-level records obtained from deep-water tsunami meters (DART and NEPTUNE). To evaluate the effect of the sea-level oscillations’ decay, a statistical analysis of observations and numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation have been conducted. The main goal is to uncover physical mechanisms of the tsunami wave field formation and evolution at scales up to tens of thousands of kilometers in space and a few days in time. It is shown that the tsunami lifetime is related to the wave-energy diffusion and dissipation processes. The decay time of the variance of the tsunami-generated level oscillations is about 1 day. Multiple reflections and scattering by irregularities of the bottom topography make the field of the secondary tsunami waves stochastic and incoherent: the distribution of the wave energy in the ocean reaches a statistical equilibrium in accordance with the Rayleigh-Jeans law of equipartition of the wave energy per degree of freedom. After the tsunami front has passed, the secondary-wave energy density turns out to be inversely proportional to the water depth.     

2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究

回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。