Ensemble smoothing of land subsidence measurements for reservoir geomechanical characterization

Geomechanical models are often used to predict the impact on land surface of fluid withdrawal from deep reservoirs, as well as investigating measures for mitigation. The ability to accurately simulate surface displacements, however, is often impaired by limited information on the geomechanical parameters characterizing the geological formations of interest. In this study, we employ an ensemble smoother, a data assimilation algorithm, to provide improved estimates of reservoir parameters through assimilation of measurements of both horizontal and vertical surface displacement into geomechanical model results. The method leverages the demonstrated potential of remote sensing techniques developed in the last decade to provide accurate displacement data for large areas of the land surface. For evaluation purposes, the methodology is applied to the case of a disk‐shaped reservoir embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic, and linearly elastic half space, subject to a uniform change in fluid pressure. Multiple sources of uncertainty are investigated, including the radius, R, the thickness, h, and the depth, c, of the reservoir; the pore pressure change, Δp; porous medium's vertical uniaxial compressibility, c_M, and Poisson's ratio, ν, and the ratio, s, between the compressibilities of the medium during loading and unloading cycles. Results from all simulations show that the ensemble smoother has the capability to effectively reduce the uncertainty associated with those parameters to which the variability and the spatial distribution of land surface displacements are most sensitive, namely, R, c, c_M, and s. These analyses demonstrate that the estimation of these parameters values depends on the number of measurements assimilated and the error assigned to the measurement values. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于遗传－广义回归神经元算法的坞石隧道三维弹塑性位移反分析研究

广义回归神经元网络在逼近能力、学习速度和网络稳定性方面均优于BP神经元网络,且具有网络人为调节参数少的优点。本文将广义回归神经元网络引入坞石隧道工程的三维弹塑性位移反分析。为了在网络训练过程中快速搜索到最优的网络阈值,采用十进制遗传算法对网络阈值进行优化。在确定最优的网络结构后,采用遗传算法在每个待反演参数的搜索范围内搜索出与实测位移最接近的围岩力学与初始应力场参数组合。用反分析得来的参数进行下步开挖位移预测,预测值与实测值吻合较好,表明所提出的这种反分析方法在工程上是可行的,可以推广使用。     

围岩力学参数反演的GSA-BP神经网络模型及应用

针对遗传算法（GA）存在早熟现象和局部寻优能力较差等缺陷,引入具有很强局部搜索能力的模拟退火算法（SA）,组成改进的遗传模拟退火算法（GSA）提高优化问题的能力和求解质量。针对BP神经网络容易陷入局部最小和收敛速度慢等方面的不足,应用改进的遗传模拟退火算法搜索BP神经网络的最优权值和阀值,提高BP神经网络的预测精度,建立了围岩力学参数反分析的GSA-BP神经网络模型。将该模型应用于乌东德水电站右岸地下厂房围岩力学参数的反演分析中,根据监测围岩变形数据反演围岩力学参数,反演所得参数应用到正计算分析中,得出的计算位移与实测值吻合较好,说明该方法的有效性和应用于该工程的可行性。     

大型地下洞室考虑开挖卸荷效应的位移反分析

基于现场监测资料的位移反分析是地下工程动态监控、信息化施工的重要组成部分。以乌江彭水水电站大型地下厂房（开挖跨度为30 m,高度为78.5 m）为例,从围岩实测位移出发,建立了基于均匀设计－神经网络－遗传算法的围岩力学参数的系统反分析方法,反演考虑开挖卸荷效应的围岩力学参数。根据数值分析结果形成训练样本,利用BP人工神经网络映射围岩的变形与力学参数的关系,同时针对传统人工神经网络存在初始权值难以确定的问题,应用遗传算法优化神经网络的初始权值;利用现场监测的增量变形反演了围岩的力学参数;最后利用反演出的参数,进行地下厂房开挖预测分析。结果表明,预测位移与现场监测位移较为接近,进行统计检验结果为优,说明该参数反演方法是正确合理的。     

Burden prediction in blasting operation using rock geomechanical properties

Burden prediction is a vital task in the production blasting. Both the excessive and insufficient burden can significantly affect the result of blasting operation. The burden which is determined by empirical models is often inaccurate and needs to be adjusted experimentally. In this paper, an attempt was made to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict burden in the blasting operation of the Mouteh gold mine, using considering geomechanical properties of rocks as input parameters. As such here, network inputs consist of blastability index (BI), rock quality designation (RQD), unconfined compressive strength (UCS), density, and cohesive strength. To make a database (including 95 datasets), rock samples are used from Iran’s Mouteh goldmine. Trying various types of the networks, a neural network, with architecture 5-15-10-1, was found to be optimum. Superiority of ANN over regression model is proved by calculating. To compare the performance of the ANN modeling with that of multivariable regression analysis (MVRA), mean absolute error (E _a), mean relative error (E _r), and determination coefficient (R ²) between predicted and real values were calculated for both the models. It was observed that the ANN prediction capability is better than that of MVRA. The absolute and relative errors for the ANN model were calculated 0.05 m and 3.85%, respectively, whereas for the regression analysis, these errors were computed 0.11 m and 5.63%, respectively. Moreover, determination coefficient of the ANN model and MVRA were determined 0.987 and 0.924, respectively. Further, a sensitivity analysis shows that while BI and RQD were recognized as the most sensitive and effective parameters, cohesive strength is considered as the least sensitive input parameters on the ANN model output effective on the proposed (burden).     

基于多重响应面法的基坑位移反分析

基坑变形的反分析涉及数值模型与优化方法的耦合,常具有计算量大、使用不方便的特点。为此,提出1种可用于基坑变形反分析的多重响应面法,该方法在基坑地下连续墙不同深度处分别采用二次多项式表示地下连续墙水平位移与土层弹性模量之间的隐式关系,在此基础上利用位移观测对基坑土层弹性模量进行反分析。该方法可以解开数值模型和优化算法的耦合,从而具有较高的计算效率。工程应用实例表明,多重响应面法对基坑土层弹性模量进行反分析具有使用方便、计算效率高、计算结果准确的优点,非常适合求解基坑工程的位移反演问题。     

Probabilistic Analysis of Ground Surface Vibration Due to Train Movement, a Case Study on Tehran Metro Line 4

Ground surface vibration produced by moving train is one of the most important aspects in urban areas. The purpose of this study is the probabilistic analysis of ground surface vibration, which is generated by metro transportations. For this reason, Tehran metro line 4 is considered as a case study. In this paper, at first, a new procedure is used to simulate train dynamic load. In the second step, based on the variation of geomechanical properties and train characteristics in Tehran metro line 4, more than 60 numerical models are simulated. The results of numerical simulations are analyzed by multivariate statistical technique and an equation for prediction of peak particle velocity (PPV) in the ground surface is presented. In the next step, probabilistic analysis is done using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Finally, sensitivity of input data on ground surface vibration is discussed and the impact of geomechanical properties and train characteristics on the surface vibration is considered. Based on the probabilistic analysis, PPV in the surface region of Tehran metro line 4 is <2.76?mm/s with 95?% probability.     

Modelling the behaviour of a retaining wall in residual soils for a cut and cover construction of a deep station in Metro do Porto

This paper presents a re-appreciation of the ground characterisation and the criteria to select the most representative geomechanical parameters to consider in a numerical model to predict the behaviour of a retaining wall of a deep excavation in highly weathered granite rock masses and residual soils. This study was focused in the construction of a deep station of Metro do Porto, which involved a cut and cover solution, with unusual proportions (in plant and in depth), built in the typical Oporto's granite weathered profiles, being the excavation conducted with retaining walls consisting of multi-anchored concrete piles. Specific sections were carefully instrumented, due to the presence of historic buildings in the vicinity. The definition of representative model parameters was based on precise laboratory tests over high quality soil samples, including oedometer and high-precision triaxial tests. Geotechnical and geological characterisation of all the area for the original design, was initially based on in situ tests, such as SPT and rock masses classification, and on the local experience on this type of ground. After this construction, the assumptions of parameterisation, using a constitutive modelling based on new laboratory tests over high quality block samples, allowed a reanalysis of the assumptions on the design phase. A back-analysis of monitored displacements and forces during the construction was made, assuming the designed structural solutions, which were in fact implemented in construction, but considering the new approaches on the definition of the geomechanical parameters for the prevailing weathered rock masses, necessary for the numerical simulation based on the commercial software Plaxis®, using the Mohr-Coulomb and “Hardening-Soil” models. Some specific changes of the constructive sequence during the excavation and activation of supporting system were attained, by looking at the information found during the construction. The results of this parametrical re-approach and analysis of the singularities of highly weathered granite and corresponding residual soils masses for modelling of retaining walls of large excavations are discussed.     

考虑剪应力作用时横观各向同性岩体中圆形巷道位移反分析的惟一性

推导了考虑剪应力作用时横观各向同性岩体中圆形巷道的位移解析解,利用参数可辨识条件对考虑剪应力作用时横观各向同性岩体中圆形巷道位移反分析的惟一性进行了探讨。结果表明,无论布置多少个测点也不能惟一地反分析出所有7个参数,必须至少已知3个参数,才有可能惟一地反分析出其他参数;水平与竖直地应力分量是否为 0 对反分析惟一性有一定影响;3个地应力分量的可辨识性最好,各向同性面上的弹性模量和泊松比次之,垂直于各向同性面方向的弹性模量和泊松比最差。与不考虑剪应力时位移反分析惟一性结果相比,考虑剪应力时参数的可辨识性顺序不变,但是条件惟一的比例降低,不惟一和绝对惟一的比例增加,说明考虑剪应力能够提高位移反分析的惟一性。工程实例计算表明,推导的位移解析解和反分析惟一性探讨结果能够很好地指导岩体参数反演计算。     

Assessing seismic response of a 2D roller-compacted concrete dam under variable reservoir lengths

Finite element method (FEM) is effectively used for evaluating roller-compacted concrete (RCC) dams, especially in high seismicity zones. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of various reservoir lengths on the seismic response of a selected RCC dam under strong ground motion effects. Six different reservoir lengths, the lengths varies from h/2 to 10h (h, the height of dam), are used within finite element models. The hydrodynamic pressure of the reservoir water is modelled with the 2D fluid finite elements based on the Lagrangian approach. The horizontal and vertical components of the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake are utilized in numerical analyses. The non-linear time-history analyses of those six models are investigated by using Drucker-Prager material model. According to the numerical analysis, it is obvious that the seismic behavior of the RCC dams is considerably dependent on the reservoir length. By increasing the length, we have obtained higher displacement values, which exist until the reservoir length reaches the 3h; at increased lengths, the values remain stable. This result proposes that 3h reservoir length is adequate to assess the seismic response of RCC dams. The principal tensile stresses are relatively lower in non-linear analysis compared to linear analyses. However, the principal compression stresses are close to each other in linear and non-linear analyses. The results imply that the non-linear response is influential on the total seismic response of a dam, which cannot be neglected in numerical analysis.     

Influence of strong motion characteristics on permanent displacement of slopes

Landslides triggered by moderate to major earthquakes are a recognized seismic hazard. Arias Intensity (I _a) is a key intensity measure of the ground motion, but significant duration is widely used to define strong motion duration. We calculate Newmark’s displacements using earthquake records bracketing a broad range of Arias Intensity and significant duration employing Newmark’s rigid block method and a number of yield accelerations. Total landslide displacement increases with the increase in the energy content of the ground motion (I _a) above a threshold. Such threshold may be expressed as a function of yield acceleration of the slope regardless of the ground motion characteristics. Newmark displacement decreases with increasing duration for earthquakes with similar energy content. The wide scatter in the results converges when using formal dimensional analysis. Self-similar symmetry may facilitate the assessment of the performance of slopes during earthquakes. The mathematical framework for probabilistic determination of landslides displacement may be a useful aid to estimate the likelihood of landslide hazards provided that the geotechnical properties of the slopes are known.     

Upscaling of elastic properties for large scale geomechanical simulations

Large scale geomechanical simulations are being increasingly used to model the compaction of stress dependent reservoirs, predict the long term integrity of under‐ground radioactive waste disposals, and analyse the viability of hot‐dry rock geothermal sites. These large scale simulations require the definition of homogenous mechanical properties for each geomechanical cell whereas the rock properties are expected to vary at a smaller scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a new methodology that makes possible to define the equivalent mechanical properties of the geomechanical cells using the fine scale information given in the geological model. This methodology is implemented on a synthetic reservoir case and two upscaling procedures providing the effective elastic properties of the Hooke's law are tested. The first upscaling procedure is an analytical method for perfectly stratified rock mass, whereas the second procedure computes lower and upper bounds of the equivalent properties with no assumption on the small scale heterogeneity distribution. Both procedures are applied to one geomechanical cell extracted from the reservoir structure. The results show that the analytical and numerical upscaling procedures provide accurate estimations of the effective parameters. Furthermore, a large scale simulation using the homogenized properties of each geomechanical cell calculated with the analytical method demonstrates that the overall behaviour of the reservoir structure is well reproduced for two different loading cases. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

分岔隧道模型试验与数值模拟超载安全度研究

超载试验能得到隧道的超载安全度,通过大型地质力学模型对分岔隧道进行了超载试验,模拟了分岔隧道在不同侧压系数下围岩的变形、应力分布和破坏情况。同时,应用三维数值分析软件对模拟区域进行了模拟。模型试验和数值模拟结果分析表明,随着侧压系数K的增加,分岔隧道的侧向位移增加,拱顶位移由向下变为向上;当侧压系数为K=3.5时,应力达到极限;当侧压系数K≥4.0时,位移突变,最终最大位移达到100 mm;塑性区骤增,隧道拱顶围岩开始开裂,且有块体掉落。分岔隧道的拱顶和两帮是最易破坏的区域,隧道超载安全度为3.5。     

基于?－SVR和GA的初始地应力场位移反分析方法研究

基于一种改进的支持向量机（?－SVR）和改进的遗传算法（GA）,提出一种初始地应力场位移反分析方法。该方法通过正交设计方法安排较少次数的正分析方案,用?－SVR对正分析中测点位移值与参数构成的样本集进行学习,建立参数取值与观测点测值的非线性隐式方程;采用确定性或随机反分析的思路确定反分析的优化目标函数,并利用GA搜索最优参数取值。采用?－SVR方法建立的参数取值与位移量测点测值的非线性隐式方程,能够以很高的精度拟合和预测不同参数取值时的观测点测值,因此,可以用该隐式方程代替正分析,减少计算量;采用改进的GA方法能够准确搜索到最优参数;搜索到的最优参数值与理论值相当吻合。算例表明,基于?－SVR和GA的初始地应力场位移反分析方法是一种行之有效的初始地应力场位移反分析方法,可以广泛用于初始地应力场确定性反分析和随机反分析。     

A Study of Stress Change and Fault Slip in Producing Gas Reservoirs Overlain by Elastic and Viscoelastic Caprocks

Geomechanical simulations were conducted to study the effects of reservoir depletion on the stability of internal and boundary faults in gas reservoirs overlain by elastic and viscoelastic salt caprocks. The numerical models were of a disk-shaped gas reservoir with idealized geometry; they mimic the structure of a gas field in the northern Netherlands which has experienced induced seismicity during gas production. The geomechanical simulations identified the area of the internal fault most sensitive to fault reactivation as coinciding with the epicenters of the largest seismic events associated with gas production. Depletion-induced shear slip is initiated at the depth of the reservoir, in the fault areas where the vertical fault throw ranges between 0.5 and 1.5 times the reservoir thickness. The extent of reactivated area differs depending on whether the caprock is viscoelastic or elastic: when it is viscoelastic, there is more down-dip shear displacement. High initial horizontal stresses in the rock salt and lower stresses in the elastic side-seal and the reservoir promote unloading of the internal and reservoir-bounding faults even before the reservoir is depleted. Particularly prone to fault reactivation are the fault zones along the interface between the reservoir rock and the salt caprock, which may already be critically stressed before depletion and are likely to be reactivated early during gas production. Stress relaxation and associated geomechanical changes affecting fault stability and ground surface deformation may continue long after production has ceased, due to the viscous behavior of the salt.     

Selecting Equivalent Strength for Intact Rocks in Heterogeneous Rock Masses

Many surface and underground structures are constructed in heterogeneous rock formations. These formations have a combination of weak and strong rock layers. Due to the alternation of the weak and strong layers, selecting the equivalent and appropriate geomechanical parameters for these formations is challenging. One of these problems is choosing the equivalent strength (i.e., uniaxial compressive strength) of intact rock for a group of rocks. Based on the volume of weak and strong parts and their strength, the equivalent strength of heterogeneous rocks changes. Marinos and Hoek (Bull Eng Geol Environ 60(2):85–92, 2001) presented the “weighted average method” for defining the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of heterogeneous rock masses based on the volume of weak and strong parts. Laubscher (1977) used the volume ratio of the strength of a weak part to a strong part (UCS weak/UCS strong) to determine the equivalent strength. In this study, the two methods are compared and their validity is evaluated by experimental data and numerical analyses. The geomechanical parameters of two heterogeneous formations (Aghajari and Lahbari) in the west of Iran were estimated using these methods. The results of the present study obtained through numerical analyses using particle flow code are compared with those of previous studies and discussed. Laboratory and numerical results show UCS decrease and approach to weak strength with an increasing in volume of weak part. When strength ratio of strong to weak rock increase, equivalent strength decrease more severely. The findings show that Laubscher’s method gives more appropriate results than the weighted average method.     

Elastic analysis of ground movements around a tunnel considering a buoyant lining moving upwards

A complex variable solution is derived for the ground movements around a tunnel considering the lining at different positions in the drilled hole in a linear elastic half-plane. The soil displacements for three different convergence patterns are presented and compared. It is shown that the surface settlement trough will become flatter and wider when the lining moves upwards; the horizontal displacements are more concentrated in the region below the lining; and the region influenced by displacements is wider. Most calculated settlement troughs can be well represented by Gaussian curves with simple parameters, but the obtained width parameters are larger than the traditional empirical values. The rigorous solution can be used as a simple tool to understand the fundamental mechanism of the lining buoyancy problem and as a benchmark for numerical procedures based on more sophisticated models. The importance of buoyancy effect on the displacement field should be taken into account.     

CO2地质封存力学问题的数值模拟方法综述

随着社会的发展,人类对化石能源的依赖导致大量的CO2排入大气层,从而引起全球变暖、海平面上升等一系列全球性气候问题。CO2地质封存是当前CO2减排最有前景的技术,但大量的CO2注入地层易诱发相应的力学问题：地表隆起变形、盖层完整性受损、断层活化等。因此,为了降低CO2地质封存带来的安全风险,理论分析、数值模拟和响应面方法等手段被应用于此类力学问题的分析中。由于数值模拟方法能够解决大尺度范围内复杂几何模型的多场耦合问题,数值模拟成为当前在CO2地质封存力学领域中应用最广泛的方法。因此,对CO2地质封存若干力学问题的数值模拟方法进行了全面的综述。首先,简要介绍了多孔介质的温度-渗流-力学-化学（THMC）多场耦合原理,并对数值模拟解决多场耦合问题的方法进行了归类。然后,详细总结了数值模拟在解决CO2地质封存力学问题方面的国内研究进展。最后,讨论了数值模拟方法在此类力学问题方面的应用缺陷,并提出了若干建议。     

Comparison of water-level,extensometric, DInSAR and simulation data for quantification of subsidence in Murcia City (SE Spain)

Subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation has been recognized in the metropolitan area of Murcia (25 km²) in south-eastern Spain since the early 1990s. Previous published works have focused their attention on land subsidence that occurred during the drought period between 1995 and 2008. This work first analyzes the groundwater recovery that has occurred since 2008 and then determines the kind of associated ground deformation detected by the new extensometric data. Subsequently, subsidence time series are computed on 24 geotechnical boreholes scattered throughout the study area by means of a hydro-mechanical finite element code and a linear-elastic constitutive law. A spatio-temporal interpolation of the numerically modeled surface displacements is performed over the whole domain and compared with extensometers and DInSAR-derived displacement maps in two different periods: the drought period from 2004 to 2008, and the recovery period from 2008 to 2012. In spite of the limited information on the geomechanical parameters characterizing the modelled geological formations, the proposed approach is able to discriminate areas where the soils have an elastic behavior (small differences in the comparisons) or an elasto-plastic behavior (large differences in the comparisons). This zonation enhances the understanding of the subsidence phenomenon in Murcia City and could prevent, from a quantitatively point of view, future severe subsidence due to aquifer overexploitation.     

弹性地基接缝板模量反演和地基脱空判定

用有限单元法建立了可考虑接缝和地基脱空的弹性地基板位移计算模型。并根据系统识别原理，建立了接缝地基板弹性模量的反演分析方法。最终提出了利用FWD实测板中弯沉盆数据反演面板与地基弹性模量、根据板角(板边)弯沉值判定地基脱空面积的迭代方法。