Near-earth plasma formations that generate world echo signals

World echo (signals with a delay of 1–60 s), originating during decametric radiosounding of conducting regions in the Earth’s gas shell, is considered in the context of the possible presence of plasma objects, which function as delay lines with small loss and distortions, in the near-Earth space. Macro-scale irregularities with a decreased local relative density in the ionosphere, magnetosphere, and more distant regions of the near-Earth space, are considered as such lines. In this case it is assumed that decametric signals propagate orthogonally to the local electron density gradient in a macro-scale plasma formation.     

A Review of Earthquake Statistics: Fault and Seismicity-Based Models, ETAS and BASS

There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff.     

Aftershock sequences of the strongest earthquakes of the world: Stages of development

Analysis of aftershock sequences of the strongest earthquakes of the world showed that previously discovered empirical relations are not universal. Båth’s law is found to be invalid in the majority of cases, while Omori’s law is valid only in a short initial interval of aftershock activity. It is supposed that aftershocks of the strongest earthquakes of normal depths are related initially to fracture of zones that preserved their integrity after the rupture in the source of the main shock and at a later stage to relaxation of stresses in the medium adjacent to the rupture.     

Inertial effects during irreversible meniscus reconfiguration in angular pores

In porous media, the dynamics of the invading front between two immiscible fluids is often characterized by abrupt reconfigurations caused by local instabilities of the interface. As a prototype of these phenomena we consider the dynamics of a meniscus in a corner as it can be encountered in angular pores. We investigate this process in detail by means of direct numerical simulations that solve the Navier–Stokes equations in the pore space and employ the Volume of Fluid method (VOF) to track the evolution of the interface. We show that for a quasi-static displacement, the numerically calculated surface energy agrees well with the analytical solutions that we have derived for pores with circular and square cross sections. However, the spontaneous reconfigurations are irreversible and cannot be controlled by the injection rate: they are characterized by the amount of surface energy that is spontaneously released and transformed into kinetic energy. The resulting local velocities can be orders of magnitude larger than the injection velocity and they induce damped oscillations of the interface that possess their own time scales and depend only on fluid properties and pore geometry. In complex media (we consider a network of cubic pores) reconfigurations are so frequent and oscillations last long enough that increasing inertial effects leads to a different fluid distribution by influencing the selection of the next pore to be invaded. This calls into question simple pore-filling rules based only on capillary forces. Also, we demonstrate that inertial effects during irreversible reconfigurations can influence the work done by the external forces that is related to the pressure drop in Darcy’s law. This suggests that these phenomena have to be considered when upscaling multiphase flow because local oscillations of the menisci affect macroscopic quantities and modify the constitutive relationships to be used in macro-scale models. These results can be extrapolated to other interface instabilities that are at the origin of fast pore-scale events, such as Haines jumps, snap-off and coalescence.     

A Damage Mechanics Model for Aftershocks

— All earthquakes are followed by an aftershock sequence. A universal feature of aftershock sequences is that they decay in time according to the modified Omori’s law, a power-law decay. In this paper we consider the applicability of damage mechanics to earthquake aftershocks. The damage variable introduced in damage mechanics quantifies the deviation of a brittle solid from linear elasticity. We draw an analogy between the metastable behavior of a stressed brittle solid and the metastable behavior of a superheated liquid. The nucleation of microcracks is analogous to the nucleation of bubbles in the superheated liquid. In this paper we obtain a solution for the evolution of damage after the instantaneous application of a constant strain to a rod. We show that the subsequent stress relaxation can reproduce the modified Omori’s law. It is argued that the aftershocks themselves cause random fluctuations similar to the thermal fluctuations associated with phase transitions.     

地球引潮力极大值和强潮汐周期性指数的建立与定性分析

日、月对地球表层海水的引潮力导致潮汐的周期性变化是一种成熟理论.地球除具有日、月、年潮汐规律外,还具有明显的准1800年、200年、50～70年、18.6年、9.3年和2.5～7年不同尺度的周期.本文通过将地球赤道半径和月球轨道半径投影到黄道面上,标定二者矢量半径之和的模的极值状态,创建了引潮力极大值和强潮汐的周期性指数K_SEM.这对探讨和预测潮汐的时间分布和推断地球自转角速度变化规律提供了一种新途径.行星系统中木星和金星对地球的摄动影响最突出,但目前还没有一个行之有效的模型将日、地、月、木星、金星作为一个统一整体,对地球潮汐极值状态进行刻画.通过辨析这五大天体运动预设的位置关系的结构特征,进而考察K_SEM指数与月球升交点和月球近地点会合周期的对应关系,以及对月球轨道运动不同的特征周期的叠加和定性分析,这对探讨强潮汐周期、厄尔尼诺现象和地震的时间分布规律提供了重要参考.     

Earthquake Nucleation on Faults with a Revised Rate- and State-Dependent Friction Law

Recently Nagata et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B02314, 2012) have proposed a new version of rate- and state-dependent friction law (RSF) that seems to have eventually resolved all the previously known discrepancies in the existing RSFs from laboratory observations. The values of a and b, empirical RSF parameters determined by fitting the same laboratory experiments, have been revised to be five times greater and a newly noticed weakening effect by shear stress with a coefficient c has been introduced. By using this revised RSF, we reinvestigated a problem of 2D quasi-static nucleation on faults. A crack-like nucleation-zone expansion known for the ‘aging’ version of RSF is not sustainable with the ‘Nagata’ law, which is understandable as the Nagata law does not produce a slip-weakening distance proportional to the involved strength reduction, an aging law’s feature that contradicts laboratory observations. The later stage of Nagata-law nucleation shows localization of quasi-static slip within a limited spatial extent, but the localization is much milder than that predicted by the ‘slip’ version of RSF. With an appropriate c parameter of the Nagata law, the nucleation size seems to be reduced only by a factor from that of the aging law.     

Statistical Variability and Tokunaga Branching of Aftershock Sequences Utilizing BASS Model Simulations

Aftershock statistics provide a wealth of data that can be used to better understand earthquake physics. Aftershocks satisfy scale-invariant Gutenberg–Richter (GR) frequency–magnitude statistics. They also satisfy Omori’s law for power-law seismicity rate decay and Båth’s law for maximum-magnitude scaling. The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model, which is the scale-invariant limit of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS), uses these scaling laws to generate synthetic aftershock sequences. One objective of this paper is to show that the branching process in these models satisfies Tokunaga branching statistics. Tokunaga branching statistics were originally developed for drainage networks and have been subsequently shown to be valid in many other applications associated with complex phenomena. Specifically, these are characteristic of a universality class in statistical physics associated with diffusion-limited aggregation. We first present a deterministic version of the BASS model and show that it satisfies the Tokunaga side-branching statistics. We then show that a fully stochastic BASS simulation gives similar results. We also study foreshock statistics using our BASS simulations. We show that the frequency–magnitude statistics in BASS simulations scale as the exponential of the magnitude difference between the mainshock and the foreshock, inverse GR scaling. We also show that the rate of foreshock occurrence in BASS simulations decays inversely with the time difference between foreshock and mainshock, an inverse Omori scaling. Both inverse scaling laws have been previously introduced empirically to explain observed foreshock statistics. Observations have demonstrated both of these scaling relations to be valid, consistent with our simulations. ETAS simulations, in general, do not generate Båth’s law and do not generate inverse GR scaling.     

考虑尺寸效应的近海桥梁天然橡胶隔震支座力学性能老化时变规律研究

目前天然橡胶支座（NRB）的性能研究大多未考虑尺寸效应,在前期开展的近海桥梁隔震支座和材料老化时变规律研究的基础上,同时考虑支座直径尺寸变化和老化作用时间的影响对NRB的性能进行研究。首先采用ABAQUS有限元软件对不同直径尺寸NRB的性能进行分析,得到了NRB性能随直径尺寸的变化规律;然后结合前期老化作用对NRB及其橡胶材料性能时变规律的影响研究成果,分析了直径尺寸及老化作用时间共同作用下,NRB性能的变化规律,并通过ABAQUS有限元分析,验证了该变化规律的准确性。结果表明:NRB的水平刚度和竖向刚度均随其直径尺寸的增大呈正比例增大趋势;NRB水平刚度比和竖向刚度比均随老化作用时间的增长呈线性增大趋势;且直径为150mm的NRB在实际环境老化60a后,其水平刚度和竖向刚度的增长幅度分别为:30.8%和16.41%,由此可见老化作用时间对NRB水平刚度的影响较显著,对其竖向刚度的影响较小。研究内容可为隔震桥梁结构中支座缩尺模型试验的相关设计提供参考,并为将实验室缩尺橡胶隔震支座的相关成果较好地应用于实际工程计算及设计中提供依据。     

In situ lateral-loading test and micro–macro-scale simulation of an existing RC frame

An in situ pseudo-dynamic lateral loading test was conducted on a real three-storey, one-by-one bay RC frame structure to study its seismic performance. The test damage process shows that it is a column-sway collapse mechanism with the damage concentrated especially at the ends of the bottom columns. In accordance with the comparison of the macro-scale and micro-scale finite element models, an element-coupling model (ECM) is proposed to acquire the micro-scale damage details with suitable calculation cost. In the ECM, macro-scale and micro-scale elements are coupled together by the multi-point constraint equations, and a plastic-damage model with modified yield surface is used to describe the nonlinear behavior of the masonry material. The calculated results show that the ECM could correctly reflect the global behavior and the micro-scale damage details with efficient cost, and the relationship of the local damage and global performance could be obtained, which is helpful to study the damage mechanism.     

大森-宇津定律的一种可能机制以唐山大地震为例

为了探讨大森-宇津定律的物理机制, 本文在余震区等效黏度远低于其外部, 且构造应力场在整个余震活动时间间隔内基本保持不变的假设条件下, 提出了一个开尔文黏弹性地震震源体概念模型． 该模型可用于模拟主震后断层蠕变和震源区应力调整触发的余震序列以及蠕变停止后余震终结、 介质恢复到弹性状态、 断层重新闭锁和积累下一次地震的整个过程． 有限元方法可用来计算非均匀黏弹性地震震源体模型中主震和每次余震所引起的应力场及其随时间的演化过程． 在此基础上, 采用开尔文黏弹性地震震源体概念模型和有限元方法模拟了1976年唐山M_S7.8地震余震序列． 结果表明: 经验的大森-宇津定律可以用开尔文黏弹性震源体模型来解释, 这意味着余震衰减的频度取决于蠕变的速率; 余震序列持续时间受控于震源体的黏度, 即黏度越大, 蠕变时间越长, 余震持续的时间也就越长．      

Drought assessment using a multivariate drought index in the Luanhe River basin of Northern China

With climate change and the rapid increase in water demand, droughts, whose intensity, duration and frequency have shown an increasing trend in China over the past decades, are increasingly becoming a critical constraint to China’s sustainable socio-economic development, especially in Northern China, even more so. Therefore, it is essential to develop an appropriate drought assessment approach in China. To propose a suitable drought index for drought assessment, the Luanhe river basin in the northern China was selected as a case study site. Based on the Principal Component Analysis of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, the three latter variables of which were obtained by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface macro-scale hydrology model, a new multivariate drought index (MDI) was formulated, and its thresholds were determined by use of cumulative distribution function. To test the applicability of the newly developed index, the MDI, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the palmer drought severity index (PDSI) time series on a monthly scale were computed and compared during 1962–1963, 1968 and 1972 drought events. The results show that the MDI exhibited certain advantages over the PDSI and the SPI, i.e. better assessing drought severity and better reflecting drought evolution. The MDI formulated by this paper could provide a scientific basis for drought mitigation and management, and references for drought assessment elsewhere in China.     

黑龙江省建设工程抗震设防要求监管探究

黑龙江省建设工程抗震设防要求监管伴随1998年《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》的颁布施行从无到有取得了跨越式发展。15年来,建设工程抗震设防要求监管在人员机构、法律体系、行政管理程序等方面日趋完善,但尚存不足。本文以多方面调研为基础,对制约抗震设防要求监管水平提升的相应问题进行详细剖析,并提出解决问题的对策与建议。     

Comparison of bed shear stress in plane and curvilinear bed channel using multiple criteria

Experimental investigation on fluvial hydraulics needs a correct and accurate estimation of bed shear stress, which governs the hydrodynamics of the sediment transport. Present work compares bed shear stress estimated from the reach-averaged bed shear stress, Log profile, Quadratic stress law, Prandtl’s seventh power law, Reynolds shear stress, turbulent kinetic energy and graphical method approaches by doing experimentation on plane bed and curvilinear bed channel. On plane bed condition, the bed shear estimated from Reynolds stresses and Graphical methods are comparable to the reach-averaged bed shear stress (the difference is within 10%). However, all approaches estimate approximately less than 10% from reach-averaged bed shear stress in curvilinear bed channel.     

Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 3. Båth’s Dynamic Law

In seismology according to Båth’s well-known law, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock is on average by unity lower than the magnitude of the main shock. At the same time, most of the strongest aftershocks typically occur within a few hours after the main shock. From the practical standpoint, this activity is quite naturally perceived as a direct continuation of the main earthquake. The subsequent strong aftershocks occur against the rarer background shocks, are less expected, and therefore constitute a separate hazard. The average difference in magnitudes between the main shock and the strongest aftershock that occurs a certain time after the main shock gradually increases. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the magnitudes of the strongest future aftershock at the successive instants of time after the main shock without taking into account the information about the aftershocks that have already occurred before a given time. For these estimates, we construct the theoretical distributions whose shape proves to be independent of time, whereas the time dependence of the shift in the magnitude proves to be known a priori. The predetermination of these dependences at the moment of the strong earthquake gives us grounds to characterize the constructed theoretical model as Båth’s dynamic law.     

地球主磁场电磁转矩导致的地球差异旋转

为探索驱动地球系统差异旋转的力源,选择整个地球作为研究对象,应用经典电磁学理论,分析地球固体介质中的电荷在地球主磁场中的运动特点,发现存在一个与地球自转方向相反的切向洛伦兹力.通过电荷与介质间的相互作用,切向洛伦兹力传递至介质迫使介质西漂.为探索地球差异旋转的规律,建立了地球薄圆筒圈层模型.应用经典物理学理论和方法推导出了地球主磁场电磁转矩及其产生的角加速度公式.研究得到四点主要结论:1)作用于半径不同的地球薄圆筒圈层的地球主磁场电磁转矩及其产生的角加速度绝对值不同:地轴及赤道附近圈层的小,其自转相对较快;半径等于3～(1/2)倍地球半径的薄圆筒圈层及其相邻圈层的大,其自转相对较慢.2)同一薄圆筒圈层中的差异旋转缘于介质的介电常数、阻力系数及质量密度的差异.3)地球差异旋转缘于地球的自转、正负电荷的非对等分布及介质的介电常数、阻力系数、质量密度的差异.4)地球差异旋转导致地壳运动,孕育地震,地球主磁场是地球差异旋转和地震孕育的敏感因子.     

拱坝非线性地震反应分析

以乌东德拱坝为对象,进行了拱坝非线性地震反应分析。结果表明:坝体损伤区域明显大于坝体混凝土按线弹性材料计算时最大主应力超过抗拉强度的区域,说明传统方法低估了拱坝的开裂范围,偏于危险;考虑基岩的非线性后,坝体损伤总体上要有所减小;坝基岩体剪胀角对坝基岩体的屈服和坝体混凝土的损伤都有影响,但是规律不明确,因此应该进行基岩剪胀角的敏感性分析。     

On the effects of air pressure variations on radon exhalation into the atmosphere

A model is studied which claims to describe the effects of air pressure variations on the outflow of radon into the atmosphere from loose deposits that are treated as a porous medium having the gas dynamic properties described by Darcy’s law. It is shown that the model results are in satisfactory agreement with the experimental data acquired from a network for monitoring subsoil radon in the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii Geodynamic Site in 1997–2006. A technique has been developed for estimating the Darcy coefficient based on radon concentration data in loose deposits at various depths.     

一种通过共轭地震确定地壳的内摩擦特性的方法

应用国内外24个具有"X"形或"L"形（不完整的"X"形）共轭破裂特征的地震资料,以及云南鲁甸、盈江两次共轭破裂地震的详细重定位数据,运用库仑破坏准则揭示的脆性破裂的共轭破裂角与介质的内摩擦系数之间的关系,测定与计算了地震共轭角与地壳的内摩擦系数,探讨了库仑破坏准则与安德逊破裂理论应用于宏观尺度破裂即天然地震问题.结果表明,在国际、国内不同地区不同年代的多次共轭破裂地震中,共轭角与内摩擦系数的优势分布分别为65°~75°与0.27~0.47.在同一地区或相近地区发生的地震,其共轭角与内摩擦系数在数值上也相近.库仑破坏准则与破裂的安德逊理论,不但适用于实验室的小样本岩石破裂实验结果,而且适用于宏观尺度破裂即天然地震.通过共轭角的测定,可以确定地壳的内摩擦系数,是一种增进对地壳的内摩擦特性的认识的简易、直接的方法.     

Describing near surface, transient flow processes in unconfined aquifers below irrigated lands: A deforming finite element model for heterogeneous aquifers

Hydrologic models of irrigated lands generally adopt either a basin-scale or a root-zone perspective. While basin-wide macro-scale models rely on the aggregation of important spatial and temporal data across large areas, micro-scale root-zone models depend on the definition of rigid boundaries around the zone of plant–soil–water interaction. In reality, irrigation management decisions are made on a field by field basis and can interact across field boundaries. This paper first describes a shallow water table model, based on deforming finite element (DFE) framework, to characterize the near-surface field-to-field hydrologic response to various irrigation and drainage management regimes along a gently sloping alluvial fan. The model is then enhanced through changing geometry of a fluctuating water table below a series of irrigated fields. Such an enhancement also offers computational flexibility relative to the saturated–unsaturated models commonly used in micro-scale studies. The model is designed with the alluvial fan aquifers of California’s western San Joaquin Valley as reference systems.