太湖梅梁湾富营养化主要驱动因子的多时间尺度分析

采用太湖湖泊生态系统研究站太湖梅梁湾富营养化四种主要驱动因子叶绿素a(Chl.a)、水温、总磷(TP)、总氮浓度1992-2010年的监测数据,利用小波变换方法,分析了四种因子不同时间尺度上的时间格局特征.结果表明,四种驱动因子在年际和年代际尺度上都具有清晰的多时间尺度特征,主周期各不相同,但Chl.a和TP浓度的小波实部变化趋势具有较高的一致性.本文分析了各因子在不同时间尺度上的强弱分布以及高低交替,并在此基础上从时间尺度的角度预测出在未来3~5年内,太湖梅梁湾湖区的富营养化程度将保持在一个比较平稳的水平,为太湖富营养化的认识和治理提供更加可靠的科学依据.     

1958-2017年太湖蒸发量年际变化趋势及主控因子

湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感,是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子,因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素,对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义.本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料,驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型,并利用2012-2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果,验证了该模型在太湖的适用性;估算了1958-2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量,并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势,寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子.结果如下:校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差,但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消,再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟;1958-2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界,先下降(-3.6 mm/a),后增加(2.3 mm/a);多元逐步回归结果表明,向下的短波辐射是太湖1958-2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子,向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响,但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大.     

1994-2018年松嫩平原西部月亮泡水淹区生态变化及其对水淹频次的响应

半干旱内陆地区的湖泊湿地是一种特殊的生态系统,季节和年际时间尺度上的湖泊水文变化对湖泊湿地生态结构和功能有着重要影响.近20年来,月亮泡湖泊湿地经历了自然和人为因素共同作用下的水文波动过程.为了实现大尺度地表生态年内/年际变化检测,更好地了解湖泊年际水淹范围及其水淹频次对内陆湖滨湿地生态的影响,基于1994—2018年Landsat TM/OLI影像数据(30 m),首先,计算提取月亮泡的年际水体信息和水淹频次,进而获取湖泊年际淹没范围.其次,采用综合生态指数变化检测法提取生态信息,选取3个标准观测年(1995、2006、2016年),从年内变化和年际变化视角分级评价了研究区生态变化,并分析了水淹频次与湿地生态变化的关系.最终,现有研究表明:湖泊年际水淹区主要分布在月亮泡的北侧与西侧尾闾,月亮泡湖泊湿地北侧的年际水淹频次更为显著.湖泊面积的扩展与自然湿地的减少是月亮泡水淹区域的主要变化类型.在这种变化情况下,研究区水体指数累积量的增加与植被指数累积量的衰减成为显著的生态变化特点.月亮泡湖泊年际水淹频次在一定时间和空间上影响着水淹区域的植被生产能力,水淹的低频波动是研究区植被累积量增加的关键因子.因此,在湿地生态恢复与管理过程中,维持合理的水文波动,恢复月亮泡北侧与西侧沼泽湿地是该区域内生态保护的核心措施.     

不同时间尺度下的湖泊沉积物环境记录——以沉积物粒度为例

在湖泊沉积记录与古气候研究中, 沉积物粒度的环境意义常常解释为: 粗粒沉积物指示低水位时期的干旱气候, 细粒沉积物指示高水位时期的湿润气候. 本文通过对云南洱海和程海现代沉积物粒度的研究, 揭示了沉积物粒度在不同时间尺度、不同时间分辨率的研究中具有不同的环境指示意义. 在长时间尺度、低分辨率(百年、千年)研究中, 粗粒沉积物指示湖泊收缩、湖水较浅的干旱气候期; 细粒沉积物指示湖泊扩张、湖水较深的湿润气候期. 在短时间尺度、高分辨率(年际、10 a)研究中, 粗粒沉积物指示降雨量较大的湿润年份; 细粒沉积物指示降雨量相对较小的干旱年份. 由于不同时间尺度研究中沉积分辨率、采样分辨率和定年精度的不同, 湖泊沉积物记录所反映的环境信息在不同尺度下因此可能存在差异. 在由以往的长时间尺度、低分辨率研究转向短时间尺度、高分辨率研究的过程中, 不能简单套用各种指标在长尺度研究中的环境指示意义, 必须结合研究的时间尺度和分辨率, 综合分析各种因素对环境记录的影响方式和程度, 才能得出可靠结论.     

不同时间尺度青海湖沉积物总有机碳对气候变化的敏感性

湖泊沉积物总有机碳（TOC）含量通常作为表征流域和湖泊生产力的指标,在亚洲季风区也常常被当作夏季风的代用指标,被广泛应用于气候与环境变化研究.本文梳理了过去千年、全新世以及冰期-间冰期时间尺度上青海湖沉积物TOC的变化特征,并探讨了其指示气候变化的敏感性与有效性.结果表明,过去千年青海湖沉积物TOC含量与区域暖季温度和降水表现出较为一致的周期性波动.通过对比全新世区域夏季温度、基于孢粉的降水定量重建结果,以及湖泊水位、风沙活动反映的湿度状况等,发现不能简单地将青海湖沉积物TOC含量或沉积通量作为夏季风强度或者季风降水强度的代用指标.青海湖沉积物TOC含量在冰期和间冰期表现出巨大的差异,指示了冰期-间冰期时间尺度上较大的温度与降水变幅.因此,不同地域条件及不同时间尺度下,湖泊沉积物TOC对气候变化的敏感性不同,将湖泊沉积物TOC含量作为亚洲夏季风的代用指标需要特别谨慎,特别是在高寒气候区.     

青藏高原东北部湖泊细菌群落结构特征季节性差异及驱动机制

微生物是湖泊生态系统重要的有机组分。了解不同时期青藏高原湖泊细菌群落特征、环境驱动因子及其群落构建过程的差异,对高原湖泊水生态管理具有重要的指导意义。分别于2020年6和12月采集青藏高原东北部5个湖泊水样,基于高通量测序技术、统计分析和模型分析,解析高原湖泊群在非冰封期和冰封期细菌群落结构、环境驱动因子和中性过程、确定性过程以及随机性过程在细菌群落构建过程的贡献。结果表明：（1）非冰封期湖泊细菌群落的Chao1丰度指数、Simpson和Shannon多样性指数低于冰封期,Spearman相关性分析结果表明非冰封期细菌群落的Chao1丰度指数和多样性指数与水温和海拔显著相关,而冰封期细菌群落的Chao1指数和多样性指数与总氮显著相关;（2）水体细菌群落的优势门均为变形菌门（Proteobacteria）,非冰封期细菌中拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）、放线菌门（Actinobacteria）和厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）的平均相对丰度明显高于冰封期。另外,主坐标分析和相似性分析结果表明非冰封期和冰封期的细菌群落组成差异极显著;（3）冗余分析结果表明不同时期湖泊群细菌群落结构的...     

21世纪以来泛北极湖泊水位变化时空特征及原因探讨

在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km²)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。     

CLM4-LISSS模型对太湖多时间尺度水热通量模拟性能的评估

湖泊模型为数值天气预报模型提供热量通量、水汽通量和动量通量等下边界条件,但是不同时间尺度上湖泊水热通量变化的控制因子不同,因此有必要对湖泊模型进行多时间尺度上的离线评估.本文利用2012-2016年太湖中尺度通量网避风港站的气象资料和辐射数据驱动CLM4-LISSS模型(Community Land Model version 4-Lake,Ice,Snow and Sediment Simulator),并与涡度相关观测(Eddy Covariance,EC)结果进行对比,以年平均潜热通量模拟结果最佳为目标调整了模式中的消光系数、粗糙度长度方案,研究了该模型从半小时到年尺度上对湖表温度和水热通量的模拟性能.结果表明:模型对湖表温度的模拟在各时间尺度上均比较理想,但是模拟的日较差较小;从半小时到年尺度上潜热通量的变化趋势都能被很好地模拟出来,但在季节尺度上,潜热通量的模拟出现了秋冬季偏高、春夏季偏低的情况,季节变化模拟不准确.湖表温度和潜热通量模拟偏差的原因可能是消光系数的参数化方案.相比之下,感热通量尽管年际变化趋势的模拟值与观测值一致,但是从半小时到年尺度均被高估.特别地,冷锋过境期间,模型能较好地模拟出潜热通量和感热通量的变化趋势,但对于高风速条件下的感热通量模拟效果不佳.本文的研究结果能为湖泊模式的应用与发展提供有用信息.     

中国近五百年旱涝灾害与内乱关系的定量分析

众多的大数据定量研究证明了在历史时期,极端气候变化能造成中国社会不稳定.但是,已有的研究将温度和降水量作为主要解析变量,欠缺了旱涝灾害对社会动荡影响的大数据定量分析.同时,相关研究也没有分不同地理区域和不同时间尺度进行对比和深入探讨.为解决该问题,本研究对中国三个农业生态区(水稻种植区、小麦种植区和牧业区)开展定量分析,探究公元1470~1911年间中国旱涝灾害与内乱的对应关系.鉴于旱涝与内乱的对应可能是"非线性"和"非固定性"的,我们采用Poisson回归分析和小波一致性分析检测两者关系.结果表明,旱涝灾害诱发了中国历史时期的内乱,但区域差异显著.在水稻种植区,洪涝在年际和数十年际的时间尺度引发内乱;在小麦种植区,洪涝和干旱均在年际和数十年际的时间尺度引发内乱;牧业区的内乱只在数十年际尺度与洪涝相关.此外,在数十年际时间尺度,三个农业生态区的旱涝事件只在人口密度不断增加或处于相对区域承载力较高的水平时段内和内乱显著相关.本研究指出气候-战争的对应关系明显受地区因素如自然环境及人口压力影响,有鉴于此,在研究历史时期的人地关系时,应先把不同地区的数据分割,再以每个地区为单位进行独立分析,这要点有望被广泛应用于后续研究.     

滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海长期水位变化(1988-2015年)及驱动因子

水位变化影响湖泊水质、水量和生态系统功能,是研究湖泊演变的重要内容,但目前针对滇中高原湖群水位变化特征还少见系统报道.本文选择滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海3个滇中高原湖泊作为研究对象,基于1988-2015年实测水位数据和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法评估了3个湖泊水位变化特征;运用RClimDex模型获得了流域极端降水指标,结合其他指标构建了基于极端气象因子的湖泊水位驱动力指标体系;采用主成分-多元回归模型,解析了极端降水、蒸发等气象因子对滇中高原湖泊水位变化的贡献.结果表明：①滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海水位年际波动不突出.滇池的年平均水位总体略呈上升趋势,年均上升0.025 m.阳宗海和抚仙湖水位无明显变化.②滇中高原湖泊流域的极端降水指数年际变化趋势不明显.滇池的蒸发量呈明显减小趋势,年均减小21.05 mm.抚仙湖蒸发量呈明显增加趋势,平均每年增加5.52 mm.阳宗海蒸发量的变化不明显.③气象指标可解释滇池水位变化的49.7%,滇池水位变化受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响;阳宗海和抚仙湖水位变化主要受气象条件控制,蒸发量、综合降水指标和连续降水指标对阳宗海水位变化的解释率高达93.3%;综合降水指标和干旱状况指标可以解释抚仙湖水位变化的64.5%.极端降水指标对解释高原湖泊水位变化具有重要作用.     

藏南羊卓雍错流域水化学主离子特征及其控制因素

水化学主离子特征是流域湖泊的一个重要特征,对气候以及河流所经地区的环境具有指示作用.本文对藏南羊卓雍错流域水化学主离子组成特征及其控制因素进行分析,结果显示流域内不同水体(湖水、河水、地下水)之间的主离子组成以及水化学类型差异显著.其中,羊卓雍错的水化学类型为SO24--HCO3--Mg2+-Na+,巴纠错为SO24--Mg2+-Na+,沉错为SO24--Na+-Mg2+-Ca2+,普莫雍错为HCO3--SO24--Mg2+-Ca2+,空姆错为HCO3--SO24--Ca2+;流域河水中主要阴离子为HCO3-和SO24-,Ca2+为绝对优势阳离子;流域地下水化学类型则为HCO3--Ca2+.究其原因,流域水体化学组成主要受岩石风化作用控制;除此,羊卓雍错、巴纠错和沉错水化学组成亦受自身蒸发-结晶作用的影响.就入湖河水而言,羊卓雍错入湖河水整体受碳酸盐岩石风化的影响较大,蒸发岩溶解的影响次之;沉错和空姆错入湖河流(卡鲁雄曲)的蒸发岩来源则略大于碳酸盐岩来源;而硅酸盐对流域内河水的水化学性质影响较小.与入湖河水相比,羊卓雍错和沉错湖水的Mg2+、Na+和SO24-含量较高,而Ca2+和HCO3-含量较低.这应该与湖水蒸发强烈使得湖水中Ca2+和HCO3-析出并沉积到湖底有关.而空姆错由于湖泊面积小、入湖河水流量大,致使其湖水与入湖河水的主离子组成差异不显著.     

Net groundwater inflow in an enclosed lake: from synoptic variations to climatic projections

Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intra-seasonal variability and wavelet characteristics of lake evaporation in comparison with hydro-meteorological data at Lake Keban (Turkey)

ABSTRACT

This study focuses on the variability of lake evaporation and also the periodic relationships among hydro-meteorological variables. The monthly hydro-meteorological data of Lake Keban were investigated by wavelet transforms. The results show that the main periodicity is on an annual scale. This periodicity is weaker for precipitation and wind speed but higher for evaporation, temperature, runoff and relative humidity. In addition to this, the continuous wavelet figures show some weak periodicities on the almost 10-year scale level but they are not continuous over time. Also, strong events on a short-term monthly scale are seen for evaporation, precipitation and runoff in 1988. This event in 1988 may be explained by the 1988 La Niña event, which was one of the strongest on record. Also, the periodicities on the 2–8-month scales in the precipitation data can be interpreted as being connected with the strong El Niño events of 1982 and 1992.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Carsteanu     

鄱阳湖夏季水面蒸发与蒸发皿蒸发的比较

水面蒸发是湖泊水量平衡要素的重要组成部分.基于传统蒸发皿观测蒸发不能代表实际水面蒸发,而实际水面蒸发特征仍不清楚.本研究基于涡度相关系统观测的鄱阳湖水体实际水面蒸发过程,在小时和日尺度分析了水面蒸发的变化规律及其主要影响因子,并与蒸发皿蒸发进行比较.研究表明,实际水面蒸发日变化波动剧烈,变化范围在0~0.4 mm/h之间.水面蒸发的日变化特征主要受风速的影响.鄱阳湖8月份日水面蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量在总体趋势上具有很好的一致性.8月份平均日水面蒸发速率(5.90 mm/d)比蒸发皿蒸发速率(5.65 mm/d)高4.6%.水面日蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量的比值在8月上、中、下旬平均值分别为1.24、1.00、0.92,呈现下降的趋势.鄱阳湖夏季水面日蒸发量与风速和相对湿度相关性显著,而蒸发皿蒸发与净辐射、气温、饱和水汽压差和相对湿度均呈显著相关.这是由于蒸发皿水体容积小,与湖泊相比其水体热存储能力小,因此更容易受到环境因子的影响.     

Evaporation estimation on Lake Titicaca: a synthesis review and modelling

The aim of this study was to validate evaporation models that can be used for palaeo‐reconstructions of large lake water levels. Lake Titicaca, located in a high‐altitude semi‐arid tropical area in the northern Andean Altiplano, was the object of this case study. As annual evaporation is about 90% of lake output, the lake water balance depends heavily on the yearly and monthly evaporation flux. At the interannual scale, evaporation estimation presents great variability, ranging from 1350 to 1900 mm year^?1. It has been found that evaporation is closely related to lake rainfall by a decreasing relationship integrating the implicit effect of nebulosity and humidity. At the seasonal scale, two monthly evaporation data sets were used: pan observations and estimations derived from the lake energy budget. Comparison between these data sets shows that (i) there is one maximum per year for pan evaporation and two maxima per year for lake evaporation, and (ii) pan evaporation is greater than lake evaporation by about 100 mm year^?1. These differences, mainly due to a water depth scale factor, have been simulated with a simple thermal model θ_w(h, t) of a free‐surface water column. This shows that pan evaporation (h = 0·20 m) is strongly correlated with direct solar radiation, whereas the additional maximum of lake evaporation (h = 40 m) is related to the heat restitution towards the atmosphere from the water body at the end of summer. Finally, five monthly evaporation models were tested in order to obtain the optimal efficiency/complexity ratio. When the forcing variables are limited to those that are most readily available in the past, i.e. air temperature and solar radiation, the best results are obtained with the radiative Abtew model (r = 0·70) and with the Makkink radiative/air temperature model (r = 0·67). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ESTIMATION OF LAKE EVAPORATION FROM A SHALLOW LAKE IN CENTRAL SWEDEN BY OXYGEN-18

Lake evaporation has been estimated for a shallow lake using a combination of water and isotope mass balance, accounting for the isotopic non-steady state of lake water. The main feature of the isotope method is that inflows need not be measured. Knowledge of their isotopic content is sufficient. Oxygen-18 content, i.e. (δ¹⁸O), of lake water, inflows and outflow was measured on a weekly basis, whereas for precipitation it was monitored daily. The discharge from the lake was also recorded daily. Lake water level, relative humidity, air, and lake water surface temperatures were recorded by a logger. The weather data were recorded on a small island in the lake. It was observed that the lake is isotopically well mixed. Furthermore, the atmospheric moisture was not always in isotopic equilibrium with the precipitation. Daily lake evaporation was estimated as an average of six to eight days depending upon the field logistics. Lake evaporation varied from 0.6 to about 5.4 mm/day during the experimental period. It was found that evaporation estimates are very sensitive to small variations in δ¹⁸O of lake evaporate. Induced changes of 10% in δ¹⁸O of lake evaporate caused errors in evaporation estimates of 9–31%, while similar induced changes in δ¹⁸O of inflows caused errors of 8–18%. Thus, an accurate experimental determination of δ¹⁸O of lake evaporate is relatively more important.     

Pan evaporation and potential evapotranspiration trends in South Florida

Declining trends in pan and lake evaporation have been reported. It is important to study this trend in every region to evaluate the validity of the trend and water management implications. Data from nine pan evaporation sites in South Florida were evaluated to see if there is a trend and if the quality of the data is sufficient for such analysis. The conclusion is that pan evaporation measurements are prone to too many sources of errors to be used for trend analysis. This condition is demonstrated in South Florida and in other regions by differences in magnitude and direction between spatially related pan stations and unexplainable observations. Also, potential evapotranspiration (ET_p) was estimated with the Simple (Abtew equation) and the Penman–Monteith method. Both cases indicated no decline in evapotranspiration for the period of analysis. Based on the decline in humidity and the increasing trend in vapor pressure deficit for the short period of analysis, 1992–2009, it appears that South Florida is experiencing increase in evaporation and evapotranspiration at this time assuming no systematic error in the weather stations' observations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaporation estimation models for Lake Eğirdir,Turkey

Lake E?irdir is located in the Lakes District in southwestern Turkey and it is the second largest freshwater resource lake. Evaporation is an important parameter in hydrological and meteorological practical studies. This study has three objectives: (1) to develop models for the estimation of daily evaporation using measured data from the automated GroWeather meteorological station located near Lake E?irdir; (2) to compare the evaporation models with the classical Penman approach; (3) to evaluate the potential of each model. The comparisons are based on daily and monthly available data from 2001 and 2002. The evaporation estimation models (EEMs) developed in this paper have lower mean absolute errors and higher coefficient of determination R² values than the Penman method. In order to evaluate the potential of the EEMs, daily evaporation values are calculated by the Priestley–Taylor, Brutsaert–Stricker, de Bruin, Makkink and Hamon methods. The EEMs are statistically indistinguishable from the classical methods on the basis of the parameters of mean, standard deviation, etc. In the evaluation of daily and monthly values, the relative error percentage for daily evaporation has lower values than for monthly evaporation. It can be seen that the EEMs help in calculating daily evaporation rather than monthly. Final evaluation and comparison indicate that there is a good agreement between the results of EEMs and the Penman approach than with the classical methods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Artificial neural networks and empirical equations to estimate daily evaporation: application to Lake Vegoritis,Greece

ABSTRACT

Evaporation is one of the most important components in the energy and water budgets of lakes and is a primary process of water loss from their surfaces. An artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used in this study to estimate daily evaporation from Lake Vegoritis in northern Greece and is compared with the classical empirical methods of Penman, Priestley-Taylor and the mass transfer method. Estimation of the evaporation over the lake is based on the energy budget method in combination with a mathematical model of water temperature distribution in the lake. Daily datasets of air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, sunshine hours and evaporation are used for training and testing of ANN models. Several input combinations and different ANN architectures are tested to detect the most suitable model for predicting lake evaporation. The best structure obtained for the ANN evaporation model is 4-4-1, with root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.69 to 1.35 mm d^?1 and correlation coefficient from 0.79 to 0.92.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned