Microphysical and radiative effects of ice clouds on diurnal variations of tropical convective and stratiform rainfall

Microphysical and radiative effects of ice clouds on diurnal variations of tropical convective and stratiform rainfall are examined with the equilibrium simulation data from three experiments conducted with a two-dimensional cloud resolving model with imposed temporally and zonally invariant winds and sea surface temperature and zero mean vertical velocity. The experiment without ice radiative effects is compared with the control experiment with ice microphysics (both the ice radiative and microphysical effects) to study effects of ice radiative effects on diurnal rainfall variations whereas it is compared with the experiment without ice microphysics to examine ice microphysical effects on the diurnal rainfall variations. The ice radiative processes mainly affect diurnal cycle of convective rainfall whereas the ice microphysical processes have important impacts on the diurnal cycles of both convective and stratiform rainfall. Turning off the ice radiative effects generally enhances convective rainfall during the morning and evening and suppresses convective rainfall in the afternoon whereas turning off the ice microphysical effects generally suppresses convective and stratiform rainfall during the morning and enhances convective and stratiform rainfall in the afternoon and evening. The ice radiative and microphysical effects on the diurnal cycle of surface rainfall are mainly associated with that of vapor condensation and deposition, which is controlled by air temperature through saturation specific humidity. The ice effects on the diurnal cycle of local temperature tendency are largely explained by that of latent heating since the diurnal cycle of radiation is insensitive to the ice effects.     

Cloud microphysical properties in tropical convective and stratiform regions

Summary Cloud microphysical properties in tropical convective and stratiform regions are examined based on hourly zonal-mean data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulation. The model is integrated for 21 days with the imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind and horizontal advections obtained from Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Time-mean cloud microphysical budgets are analyzed in raining stratiform regions, convective regions, and non-raining stratiform regions, respectively. In raining stratiform regions, ice water path (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP) have similar magnitudes. The collection process contributes slightly more to the growth of raindrops than the melting processes do, and surface rain rate is higher than the raindrop-related microphysical rate, indicating that the hydrometeor convergence from the convective regions plays a role in surface rainfall processes. In convective regions, IWP is much smaller than LWP, the collection process is dominant in producing raindrops, and surface rain rate is lower than the raindrop-related microphysical rate. In non-raining stratiform regions, IWP is much larger than LWP, and the melting processes are important in maintaining the raindrop budget. The statistical analysis of hourly data suggests that the slopes of linear regression equations between IWP and LWP in three regions are different. Rain producing processes in convective regions are associated with the water cloud processes regardless of convection intensity.     

Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability

Decadal Sahelian rainfall variability was mainly driven by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the twentieth century. At the same time SSTs showed a marked long-term global warming (GW) trend. Superimposed on this long-term trend decadal and multi-decadal variability patterns are observed like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Using an atmospheric general circulation model we investigate the relative contribution of each component to the Sahelian precipitation variability. To take into account the uncertainty related to the use of different SST data sets, we perform the experiments using HadISST1 and ERSSTv3 reconstructed sets. The simulations show that all three SST signals have a significant impact over West Africa: the positive phases of the GW and the IPO lead to drought over the Sahel, while a positive AMO enhances Sahel rainfall. The tropical SST warming is the main cause for the GW impact on Sahel rainfall. Regarding the AMO, the pattern of anomalous precipitation is established by the SSTs in the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins. In turn, the tropical SST anomalies control the impact of the IPO component on West Africa. Our results suggest that the low-frequency evolution of Sahel rainfall can be interpreted as the competition of three factors: the effect of the GW, the AMO and the IPO. Following this interpretation, our results show that 50% of the SST-driven Sahel drought in the 1980s is explained by the change to a negative phase of the AMO, and that the GW contribution was 10%. In addition, the partial recovery of Sahel rainfall in recent years was mainly driven by the AMO.     

Effects of time-dependent large-scale forcing, solar zenith angle, and sea surface temperature on time-mean tropical rainfall processes

Effects of time-dependent large-scale forcing (LSF), solar zenith angle (SZA), and sea surface temperature (SST) on time-mean rainfall processes during Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) are examined by conducting a control experiment and a series of sensitivity experiments with a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model. The model is forced by time-dependent LSF, SZA, and SST in the control experiment. The sensitivity experiments are forced only by either time-dependent LSF, or SZA, or SST while others are replaced with their time averages. When the model is imposed by time-dependent LSF, time dependence of SZA and SST has no discernable effect on surface rainfall, but it affects rainfall processes. The rainfall is reduced by 15% when the time-dependent LSF is replaced by its time mean. The reduction of rainfall is associated with the suppression of water vapor convergence as a result of low correlation between upward motion and water vapor variation.     

Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts

Different combination methods based on multiple linear regression are explored to identify the conditions that lead to an improvement of seasonal forecast quality when individual operational dynamical systems and a statistical–empirical system are combined. A calibration of the post-processed output is included. The combination methods have been used to merge the ECMWF System 4, the NCEP CFSv2, the Météo-France System 3, and a simple statistical model based on SST lagged regression. The forecast quality was assessed from a deterministic and probabilistic point of view. SSTs averaged over three different tropical regions have been considered: the Niño3.4, the Subtropical Northern Atlantic and Western Tropical Indian SST indices. The forecast quality of these combinations is compared to the forecast quality of a simple multi-model (SMM) where all single models are equally weighted. The results show a large range of behaviours depending on the start date, target month and the index considered. Outperforming the SMM predictions is a difficult task for linear combination methods with the samples currently available in an operational context. The difficulty in the robust estimation of the weights due to the small samples available is one of the reasons that limit the potential benefit of the combination methods that assign unequal weights. However, these combination methods showed the capability to improve the forecast reliability and accuracy in a large proportion of cases. For example, the Forecast Assimilation method proved to be competitive against the SMM while the other combination methods outperformed the SMM when only a small number of forecast systems have skill. Therefore, the weighting does not outperform the SMM when the SMM is very skilful, but it reduces the risk of low skill situations that are found when several single forecast systems have a low skill.     

Diurnal phase of late-night against late-afternoon of stratiform and convective precipitation in summer southern contiguous China

Using the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations combined with the surface rain gauge data during 1998–2006, the robust diurnal features of summer stratiform and convective precipitation over the southern contiguous China are revealed by exploring the diurnal variations of rain rate and precipitation profile. The precipitation over the southern contiguous China exhibits two distinguishing diurnal phases: late-night (2200–0600 LST) and late-afternoon (1400–2200 LST), dependent on the location, precipitation type and duration time. Generally, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile of stratiform precipitation occur in the late-afternoon (late-night) over the southeastern (southwestern) China, while most of the stratiform short-duration rain rate tends to present late-afternoon peaks over the southern China. For convective precipitation, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile occur in the late-afternoon over most of the southern contiguous China, while the convective long-duration rain rate exhibits late-night peaks over the southwestern China. Without regional dependence, the convective precipitation exhibits much larger amplitude of diurnal variations in both near surface rain rate and vertical extension compared with stratiform precipitation and the convective rain top rises most rapidly between noon and afternoon. However, there are two distinctive sub-regions. The diurnal phases of precipitation there are very weakly dependent on precipitation type and duration time. Over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile of either convective or stratiform precipitation occur in the late-night. Over the southeastern coastal regions, both the near surface rain rate and rain top of convective and stratiform precipitation peak in the late-afternoon.     

Surface flux response to interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability in AMIP models

 A systematic comparison of observed and modeled atmospheric surface heat and momentum fluxes related to sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual time scales in the tropical Pacific is conducted. This is done to examine the ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) to simulate the surface fluxes important for driving the ocean on interannual time scales. In order to estimate the model and observed response to such SST variability, various regression calculations are made between a time series representing observed ENSO SST variability in the tropical Pacific and the resulting surface flux anomalies. The models exhibit a range of differences from the observations. Overall the zonal wind stress anomalies are most accurately simulated while the solar radiation anomalies are the least accurately depicted. The deficiencies in the solar radiation are closely related to errors in cloudiness. The total heat flux shows some cancellation of the errors in its components particularly in the central Pacific. The performance of the GCMs in simulating the surface flux anomalies seems to be resolution dependent and low-resolution models tend to exhibit weaker flux responses. The simulated responses in the western Pacific are more variable than those of the central and eastern Pacific but in the west the observed estimates are less robust as well. Further improvements in atmospheric GCM flux simulation through better physical parametrization is clearly required if such models are to be used to their full potential in coupled modeling and climate forecasting. Received: 24 August 1999 / Accepted: 11 September 2000     

On the seasonal sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific

Summary In this paper, we investigated physical processes that control the seasonal variations of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific, using an intermediate ocean model. It is found that the westward propagation of sea surface temperature along the equator is attributed to dynamic response of the ocean to the wind (that consists of 3-dimensional temperature advection), whereas the northward propagation of sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific results from the thermodynamic response of the ocean to the surface heat flux, primarily shortwave radiation that includes the effect of low-level stratus clouds. The remote response of the eastern Pacific sea surface temperature to seasonally varying wind in the western Pacific is of secondary importance, compared to the local wind forcing. The results suggest that the mechanism that controls the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature is different from that associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.With 9 Figures     

Influence of tropical cyclones on sea surface temperature seasonal cycle and ocean heat transport

Recent studies suggested that tropical cyclones (TCs) contribute significantly to the meridional oceanic heat transport by injecting heat into the subsurface through mixing. Here, we estimate the long-term oceanic impact of TCs by inserting realistic wind vortices along observed TCs tracks in a 1/2° resolution ocean general circulation model over the 1978–2007 period. Warming of TCs’ cold wakes results in a positive heat flux into the ocean (oceanic heat uptake; OHU) of ~480 TW, consistent with most recent estimates. However, ~2/5 of this OHU only compensates the heat extraction by the TCs winds during their passage. Another ~2/5 of this OHU is injected in the seasonal thermocline and hence released back to the atmosphere during the following winter. Because of zonal compensations and equatorward transport, only one-tenth of the OHU is actually exported poleward (46 TW), resulting in a marginal maximum contribution of TCs to the poleward ocean heat transport. Other usually neglected TC-related processes however impact the ocean mean state. The residual Ekman pumping associated with TCs results in a sea-level drop (rise) in the core (northern and southern flanks) of TC-basins that expand westward into the whole basin as a result of planetary wave propagation. More importantly, TC-induced mixing and air-sea fluxes cool the surface in TC-basins during summer, while the re-emergence of subsurface warm anomalies warms it during winter. This leads to a ~10 % reduction of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle within TCs basins, which may impact the climate system.     

Diurnal Sea surface temperature response to tropical cyclone Dahlia in the Eastern tropical Indian Ocean in 2017 revealed by the Bailong buoy

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dahlia occurred adjacent to over the equatorial southeastern Indian Ocean during the period 26 November – 3 December 2017 and was observed by the Bailong buoy, which provides in situ observations of high-frequency variations in the upper ocean environment. The diurnal sea surface temperature (dSST) variabilities during different stages of the passage of TC Dahlia are studied. The dSST variability is rather weak during the TC passing stage in contrast to the strong ranges before (0.35 °C) and after (0.57 °C) the TC. Before the influence of TC Dahlia, the dSST presented significant regular variability with a peak in the afternoon and minimum value in the morning, which is similar to the even larger range that occurred after TC Dahlia. During the passage of TC Dahlia, dSST decreased dramatically, and a uniform variation was presented due to the absence of strong heat fluxes and stirring and upwelling induced by strong winds. Further analysis through a one-dimensional mixed layer model (Price-Weller-Pinkel, PWP) indicated that the dominant elements responsible for the different dSST variations during distinct stages of TC Dahlia were shortwave radiation and surface wind, which strongly impacted the dSST evolution during TC Dahlia. The asymmetrical wind strength was responsible for the asymmetry of dSST variation.     

天山北坡一次特大暴雨过程诊断分析

撰写暴雨天气个例分析论文（Analysis Paper on the Rainstorm Event,APRE）,对于从事天气预报科研、业务、服务的专业技术人员充分认识暴雨天气的多尺度特征与成因具有重要意义。针对目前APRE类论文投稿量大、写作质量不高、投稿命中率偏低及其在大气科学（气象）类核心期刊上发表越来越难的现状,本文结合近些年《暴雨灾害》APRE来稿编审与发稿情况,就APRE写作中存在的若干问题,结合国内核心期刊上已发表的多篇典型APRE,对APRE的题名、引言、正文、结论与讨论写作中存在的难点及要点进行了剖析,并探讨了ARPE写作的求新问题,以期为各级气象台站预报员或相关研究人员了解APRE写作方法、提高APRE写作质量及投稿命中率提供参考。

     

The seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature in a coupled GCM

 The mechanisms responsible for the seasonal cycle in the tropical central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated using a coupled general circulation model. We find that the annual westward propagation of SST anomalies along the equator is explained by a two-stage process. The first stage sets the phase of the variation at the eastern boundary. The strengthening of the local Hadley Circulation in boreal summer leads to a strengthening of the northward winds that blow across the equator. These stronger winds drive enhanced evaporation and entrainment cooling of the oceanic mixed layer. The resulting change in SST is greatest in the east because the mixed layer is at its shallowest there. As the east Pacific SST cools the zonal SST gradient in the central Pacific becomes more negative. This development signals the onset of the second stage in the seasonal variation of equatorial SST. In response to the anomalous SST gradient the local westward wind stress increases. This increase drives cooling of the oceanic mixed layer in which no single mechanism dominates: enhanced evaporation, wind-driven entrainment, and westward advection all contribute. We discuss the role that equatorial upwelling plays in modulating mixed layer depth and hence the entrainment cooling, and we highlight the importance of seasonal variations in mixed layer depth. In sum these processes act to propagate the SST anomaly westward. Received: 22 February 1999 / Accepted: 20 March 2000     

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting

A seasonal forecasting system that is capable of skilfully predicting rainfall totals on a regional scale would be of great value to Ethiopia. Here, we describe how a statistical model can exploit the teleconnections described in part 1 of this pair of papers to develop such a system. We show that, in most cases, the predictors selected objectively by the statistical model can be interpreted in the light of physical teleconnections with Ethiopian rainfall, and discuss why, in some cases, unexpected regions are chosen as predictors. We show that the forecast has skill in all parts of Ethiopia, and argue that this method could provide the basis of an operational seasonal forecasting system for Ethiopia.     

Contribution of tropical cyclones to abnormal sea surface temperature warming in the Yellow Sea in December 2004

Unusual sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) in December 2004. To identify the causes of the abnormal SST warming, we conducted an analysis on atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their impacts on upper ocean characteristics using multiple datasets. With the analysis of various datasets, we explored a new aspect of the relationship between TC activity and SST. The results show that there is a significant link between TC activity over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and SST in the YS. The integrated effect of consecutive TCs activity induces a large-scale atmospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly over the NWP and consequently anomalous easterly winds over the YS and East China Sea. The mechanism of the unusually warm SST in the YS can be explained by considering TCs acting as an important source of Ekman heat transport that results in substantial intrusion of relatively warm surface water into the YS interior. Furthermore, TC-related circulation anomalies contribute to the retention of the resulting warm SST anomalies in the entire YS.